Saturday 2/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saudi Cup Picks + Quigley Hits Prices in Beat the Host

February 18, 2021 | By Johnny D

Santa Anita’s Tom Quigley hit on 2 of 10 Beat the Host picks Saturday but posted a strong $75.50 total based on payoffs for $5 Win wagers. In Santa Anita’s third race, Quigley correctly tabbed Capper ($9.80) and later added Merneith ($20.40) in the eighth race. It’s the fourth time in six weeks a host has posted a flat-bet profit.

The top three players from this week’s action are David Bernat ($177.50), Peter Grau ($175.50) and Kyle Newcomb ($156). They collect $1,000, $750 and $250, respectively.

Pacesetters in the race for seasonal cumulative earner honors shifted this week as Adam Haskins assumes command over Randy Bird $448.50 to $440. Maria Cimino is next with $434.50. Peter Grau ($426.50), Craig Yoshino ($425) and Andrew Ma ($400) round out the top six that are separated by a mere $48.50.

By comparison, hosts this season have compiled a respectable $349.50 in cumulative earnings. If eligible, that total would rank 16th overall in the race for seasonal cumulative earnings. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Gulfstream’s Ron Nicoletti leads all hosts with $82.50 in weekly earnings, just $2 better than the total produced by Santa Anita’s Millie Ball in week 2. Quigley’s Saturday total is third best, so far, at $75.50.

Two hosts remain in weekly Beat the Host play, with Gulfstream’s Acacia Courtney at the plate Saturday. NBC Sports analyst Eddie Olcyzk handles the anchor lap.

If you haven’t already played Beat the Host this season, what the heck are you waiting for? All it takes to play is a ‘live’ $5 Win wager on one horse in each of 10 competition races. If your earnings exceed the hosts, you qualify for the Beat the Host Championship Round. If your earnings are in the top 3 of all players that week, you earn a share of $2,000. And, here’s the best part, since Beat the Host competition wagers are ‘live,’ you get to keep what you win. Pick a few winners and you’re ahead for the day without winning a prize!

Saturday’s Gr. 2 Risen Star Stakes really didn’t deliver much Kentucky Derby insight except for enhancing the budding Brad Cox legend. His charge Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon and Proxy, the duo in front of him in the Gr. 3 Lecomte in January. Mandaloun wore blinkers for the first time in the Risen Star and a :59 4/5 workout over a ‘good’ track had him tight. All angles considered, there doesn’t seem to be too much between the trio. Therefore, none of these appear to be Derby winner’s circle threats at this time.

Originally, in this space, the idea was to provide horse-by-horse, in-depth handicapping analysis of all major Kentucky Derby prep races. However, Mother Nature has forced the folks in Hot Springs, Arkansas to postpone the Southwest Stakes until next Saturday. That leaves this weekend without a US-based major 3-year-old stakes race.

No worries. If we can adapt to a worldwide pandemic, we certainly can handle a spell of freezing temperatures in the southern states.

Saturday, conveniently, they just happen to be running what’s billed as the ‘World’s Most Valuable Horse Race’ at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It’s the $20 million Saudi Cup--center jewel of a desert evening card that includes 31 Group and Grade 1 winners chasing a total of $30.5 million. There’s also a Friday card that includes eight races--four as part of an International Jockey Challenge.

Saturday’s action begins at 4 pm local time, which is 8 a.m. Eastern. The Saudi Cup is scheduled for 12:40 pm ET. As we’ve experienced over decades of Dubai racing for breakfast, money won in the morning spends just as well as money won in the afternoon.

Below is one man’s horse-by-horse opinion of the $20 million Saudi Cup field and recommended play:

First, some things you should know:


This is a one-turn, about one mile and one-eighth dirt race.

Most European runners are not used to racing on dirt. They could shy from kickback, not be comfortable with the quicker pace and be a bit long-fused for a one-turn dirt race.

In last year’s inaugural running of this race, US-based horses occupied four of the first five finishing positions. Godophin’s Dubai-based Benbatal was third.


Odds below are from William Hill as posted at oddschecker.com Thursday morning ET.

#1 CHUWA WIZARD (JPN) - Okubo/Tosaki - Japan - 10/1

This 6-year-old horse was the Japan Racing Association’s dirt champion of 2020 and won the 2020 Grade 1 Champions Cup last out. That’s a qualifying race for the Saudi Cup. To make an impression in this field he’ll need to run much better than he ever has. It is noteworthy that his price (10-1) at William Hill on Thursday morning (according to oddschecker.com) is way less than one would expect. Is this ‘smart’ money or just ‘fans’ of Japanese racing getting down on their favorite son? We’ll Pass.

#2 BANGKOK (IRE) - Balding/Moore - England - 33/1

This 5-year-old is fit—having just won the mile and one-quarter Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield Feb. 6. Fitness is a critical handicapping factor to yours truly and his recency may help but he’s not close to being of this quality. This will be his first start on dirt, but he has handled synthetics at Lingfield and Wolverhampton. Jockey Ryan Moore is world class, but he’ll need to be a Houdini-level magician to pull off an upset here. Pass.

#3 GREAT SCOT (GB) - Mushrif/Alfouraidi - Saudi Arabia - 50/1

This 5-year-old returns to the scene of the crime—he finished 12th of 14 in this race last year—and may be victimized again. The good news is that he doesn’t have to travel. He’s playing a ‘home’ game while the rest of the field is ‘away.’ That could be the only edge he has and that just isn’t enough. Pass.

#4 MAX PLAYER (USA) - Asmussen/Rispol - United States - 25/1

Winning the Saudi Cup would be a great way to snap a drought. 4-year-old Max Player hasn’t won a race since the 2020 Gr. 3 Withers, when trained by Linda Rice. He has two wins in 7 starts and was third in the Gr. 1 Belmont and Gr. 1 Travers, as well as fifth in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby and Gr. 1 Preakness. The Saudi Cup will be his first race since Old Hilltop. Trainer Asmussen just missed winning this race last year when mare Midnight Bisou’s late charge fell just short of a resilient Maximum Security. FYI…Asmussen actually may end up ‘winning’ the inaugural Saudi Cup because the first-place purse is still withheld pending the conclusion of a trial for Jason Servis Maximum Security’s former trainer. Strangely, Midnight Bisou’s odds of ‘winning’ the Saudi Cup actually may be better than Max Player’s. Bottom of Exotics Only.

#5 KNICKS GO (USA) - Cox/Rosario - United States - 3/1

Owned by Korea Racing Authority, this 5-year-old grey son of Paynter won the Gr. 1 Pegasus Cup last out in wire-to-wire fashion and is expected to go the lead again in here. He’s drawn inside #9 Charlatan, the other speed horse in the race. Jockey Rosario will want to have the lead and to save ground inside. At some point, #9 Charlatan will come calling and that will be when the 2021 Saudi Cup will be decided. Can Knicks Go turn back the challenge and register his fifth consecutive victory and seventh overall, or will he succumb to #9 Charlatan’s bid? Among other Knicks Go successes are two record-setting runs at Keeneland and the BC Dirt Mile. He’s won 6 of 18 races and over $3 million. Trainer Brad Cox currently is the hottest conditioner in the nation. Can he extend that domination to Saudi Arabia? Win Contender.

#6 GLOBAL GIANT (GB) - Gosden/Dettori - England - 25/1

If you like #11 Simsir, then you’ve got to give this 6-year-old a gander. He finished second to #11 Simsir in the Bahrain Trophy after breaking slowly and finishing well late. He’s got the world-famous combination of trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori on his side, but he might need a bit more than that. He’ll be switching from Bahrain turf to Saudi dirt and backing up from a mile and one-quarter to one mile and one-eighth. He’s won 4 of 17 overall with 6 more in the money finishes.

#7 TACITUS (USA) - Mott/Velazquez - United States - 12/1

Some call him a disappointment. We all should be so lucky as to own an equine ‘disappointment’ that earns more than $3.2 million. Winless at the Grade 1 level in 7 tries, he’s also never been worse than fourth in those races. At age 5 it would be a surprise to see him jump up and win one now, but it’s not impossible. Fourth (what else?) in the BC Classic in November, he was fifth in the Saudi Cup last year—his worst finish ever. The good news for those who haven’t given up on him winning a Grade 1 race is that he will get the kind of early pace he needs to be successful. The bad news is that one mile and one-eighth may be bit short for his best. Another piece of good news for Tacitus backers is that he will not be favored in here. Last year, he lost five consecutive times as the public choice. Exotics Only.

#8 SLEEPY EYES TODD (USA) - Silva/Moreno - United States - 25/1

Purchased for a mere $9k as a weanling, 5-year-old Sleepy Eyes Todd has banked nearly $900k! Now, that’s a success story. ‘Todd not only has money in the bank, he’s also collected an abundance of frequent flyer miles, too. This will be his 12th start out of 17 at a different racetrack. And, of course, it comes halfway around the world from his US base. He’s a multiple Gr. 3 winner and was fourth last out in the Gr. 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream. He’ll need to turn the tables on that race’s winner #5 Knicks Go to be successful here and that’s a tall order. He is a closer and ought to have enough pace to run at, but he’s never won a race of this magnitude. Exotics Only.

#9 CHARLATAN (USA) - Baffert/Smith - United States - 11/8

If 4-year-old Charlatan crosses the Saudi Cup finish behind another horse, it will be a new experience for the son of Speightstown. He’s finished first in all four starts, including the Gr. 1 Malibu last out at Santa Anita Dec. 26, but previously was disqualified from victory in the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby because of a failed drug test. His last two works are solid—including one at seven panels in 1:24 3/5--both capped by strong Baffert-style gallop outs. He’s got enough speed to sit comfortably off whatever pace is determined by #5 Knicks Go. Does Charlatan have the quality and stamina to catch and dispose of that foe while holding off closing charges from other talented foes? We believe he does. The next time Bob Baffert sends a ‘short’ horse postward, it will be the first time. Charlatan will be ready and, we believe, good enough. The Pick to Win.

#10 MILITARY LAW (GB) - Al Mheriri/Fresu - United Arab Emirates - 10/1

This 6-year-old son of Dubawi ships in from his UAE base. Last out he won the Group 2 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 at about one mile. He has a couple of in the money finishes against Group 1 and Group 2 competition. He comes from off the pace, so that style should be effective in here. He’s won 5 of 11 with 3 seconds and has done well on dirt since moving to Dubai from the barn of John Gosden in England where he raced on grass and all-weather surfaces. He may be the kind of ‘local’ runner with a chance to hit the board. Exotics Only.

#11 SIMSIR (IRE) - Nass/de Vries - Bahrain - 33/1

This 5-year-old gelding’s claim to fame came in November when he won the $673,000 Bahrain International Trophy. He bested a few Group 1 winners in that race. He’s earned over $509k in 4 wins and 3 seconds from 11 starts. He’s basically a front-runner, but he’ll find those positions spoken for in the Saudi Cup. He’s got a grinding style, so he probably won’t be able to make up a bunch of ground late. He finished fourth in a recent prep race at a mile and one-quarter. Pass.

#12 MISHRIFF (IRE) - Gosden/Egan - England - 7/1

He finished second last year in the Saudi Derby over this track, so you know he can handle dirt and, in particular, this dirt. He’s won 4 of 8 races, including the Group 1 French Derby. He’s probably better at 10 furlongs than at 9 and has tactical turf speed. However, he also has habit of breaking slowly…and that’s against fellow European runners. With 5 US-based runners in this field, if Mishriff breaks slowly Saturday, he’s going to find himself well back in the field and eating a lot of kickback. The distance, along with the pace picture are concerns for trainer John Gosden, one of the world’s best at his craft. Exotics Only.

#13 DEREVO (GB) - Al Katahni/Demuro - Saudi Arabia - 50/1

This 5-year-old gelding has a bit of a home field advantage. He won by a nose last Saturday in the King’s Cup over this track. That was at a mile and one-quarter and he used the entire distance to make his wide closing charge count. He has won 4 of 12 starts and has two wins over synthetic surfaces and one on turf. He will have hands full in this race. Pass.

#14 EXTRA ELUSIVE (GB) - Charlton/H. Doyle - England - 33/1

There are a few things to note about this Roger Charlton-trained, dual Group 3 winner. He’s usually a front runner but won’t be there in here. Too many others have early pace. He’s got to stay wide and out of the kickback. That’s the job of jockey Hollie Doyle, who’s ridden him in his last four starts. She’s a rising riding star and this wide draw in post 14 will help her and Extra Exclusive avoid getting hit with too much dirt. Like with most turf horses, racing on the dirt can be…excuse the pun…an ‘eye-closing’ experience. A piece of the pie would be this one’s major goal. Pass.

BOTTOM LINE

The Choice: #9 Charlatan - He’s unbeaten, fresh and is trained by Bob Baffert. What else would you like?

Second Best: #5 Knicks Go - Comes off victory in the Pegasus World Cup and this may be too much, too soon in an attempt to complete a challenging worldwide parlay.

Could Run Well:

#7 Tacitus - We know, we know, you’re tired of betting Tacitus to win. OK. How do you feel about using him in exotics? That seems his most likely fate.

#12 Mishriff - He’s handled the track before and is trained by one of our favorites of all time. Worth exotic consideration.

#10 Military Law - Has finished in the money with top competition and didn’t have to ship around the world for this. Maybe…in exotics at a price?

SUGGESTED PLAY

$0.50 Superfecta ($16.50)

First: #9 Charlatan
Second: #5 Knicks Go
Third: #7 Tacitus, #12 Mishriff, #10 Military Law
Fourth: All Runners

Race On!

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Jon White's Selections for $20 Million Saudi Cup
February 17, 2021 | By Jon White
It was 40 years ago that John Henry, a gelding who rose to stardom from relative obscurity, won the world’s first $1 million Thoroughbred race, the Arlington Million, by a scant nose.

John Henry won 39 times during his extraordinary career. Of those 39 victories, the 1981 Arlington Million quite possibly was his finest because of what he overcame in order to prevail.

Ron McAnally did nothing less than a fantastic job as John Henry’s trainer.

“He won that day despite the unfavorable conditions,” McAnally once told me with respect to the 1981 Arlington Million. “The surface was so soft and John adjusted to it to come from way back and win by a nose.”

Daily Racing Form’s esteemed Joe Hirsch wrote: “The bottom line is that John Henry won when his cause appeared completely lost.”

John Henry defeated such accomplished runners as Madam Gay, second to Shergar in Ascot’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes; Key to Content, winner of the United Nations Handicap at Atlantic City; and Argument, who had been victorious in the 1980 Washington, D.C., International.

But it was a 40-1 longshot by the name of The Bart who came within a whisker of beating John Henry in the inaugural Arlington Million.

As a huge John Henry fan (like so many others), I was tickled that he won Thoroughbred racing’s first seven-figure event. But I also could not help but feel sorry for The Bart and his connections, most especially trainer John Sullivan. To lose a $1 million race by such an excruciatingly small margin was about as brutal a defeat as it gets.

Speaking of The Bart, when I was a writer for the Daily Racing Form in the early 1980s, I broke the story of his retirement from racing. One afternoon while I was typing away in the Del Mar press box, I received a phone call out of the blue.

“This is John Sullivan,” he said.

“What’s up, John?” I asked.

“Unfortunately, I’ve got a scoop for ya. The Bart is retired. I wanted you to have it first.”

I told Sullivan I was sorry to hear that. I then told him how appreciative I was that he was giving me the scoop.

While the purse for the 1981 Arlington Million was a huge deal at the time, races worth $1 million are fairly commonplace nowadays. And four decades after John Henry nosed out The Bart in the first running of the Arlington Million, a race offering a $20 million purse, the Saudi Cup, will be held this Saturday at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

America’s Knicks Go and Charlatan head the field of 14 entered in this year’s Saudi Cup, which has the distinction of being the world’s richest horse race.

Knicks Go is No. 1 in this week’s first 2021 NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Charlatan is No. 2.

The other American shippers running in this year’s Saudi Cup are Max Player, Tacitus and Sleepy Eyes Todd.

Brad Cox trains Knicks Go. Cox was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer.

Knicks Go is taking a four-race winning streak into the Saudi Cup. His two most recent victories have come at the Grade I level. The Maryland-bred colt took the Grade I BC Dirt Mile by 3 1/2 lengths in his final start of 2020, then won Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Pegasus World Cup Invitational by 2 3/4 lengths in his first start of 2021.

The 1 1/8-mile Pegasus was Knicks Go’s first time going longer than 1 1/16 miles in his 18-race career. The Saudi Cup will be run at 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) around one turn.

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trained Paynter, the sire of Knicks Go. Paynter at 3 finished a close second to Union Rags in the Grade I Belmont Stakes and won the Grade I Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

In this year’s Saudi Cup, Baffert will be trying to beat Paynter’s son Knicks Go with Charlatan, who has finished first in each of his four career starts. Charlatan won a division of last year’s 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby by six lengths, but then was disqualified from purse money due to a medication violation.

In his most recent start, Charlatan won Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs on Dec. 26. The Kentucky-bred Speightstown colt sat comfortably just off the fast early pace set by Nashville, then drew away in the lane to win with authority by 4 1/2 lengths.

My selections for the Saudi Cup are below:

1. Knicks Go
2. Charlatan
3. Mishriff
4. Chuwa Wizard

I’m going with Knicks Go over Charlatan in a very tough call. My main reason for giving the nod to Knicks Go is he recorded a 108 Beyer Speed Figure the one time he’s raced 1 1/8 miles. In Charlatan’s lone start at 1 1/8 miles, he received a career-low 96 Beyer. This is quite a disparity.

But I have considerable respect for Charlatan. He is an extremely talented colt who has yet to be anything but first at the end of a race. And I will not be the least bit surprised if he once again is in front at the end of Saturday’s Saudi Cup.

Watch out for Mishriff. He’s got class (winner of the Group I French Derby on turf last year), a great trainer (John Gosden) and has run well on dirt at King Abdulaziz Racecourse (second in last year’s Saudi Derby).

One also should never take horses from Japan lightly on the international stage these days. Chuwa Wizard won the Group I Champions Cup on dirt Dec. 6 in Japan.

SOUTHWEST STAKES POSTPONED YET AGAIN

Wintry weather certainly has wreaked havoc on the racing schedule at Oaklawn Park. It has caused the cancellation of eight racing days from Feb. 12 through this Sunday. The sport is slated to resume there on Feb. 25.

The Grade III Southwest Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile race on the road to the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby on May 1, was supposed to have been run at Oaklawn on Feb. 15. Then the race was moved to Feb. 20. Then it was moved to Feb. 21. And now it has been moved to Feb. 27.

The Southwest situation no doubt has been frustrating for the connections of Essential Quality, Keepmeinmind and Jackie’s Warrior, the three marquee 3-year-olds expected to run in the race.

Essential Quality, the undefeated Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2020, sits atop my Kentucky Derby Top 10. Keepmeinmind, who is No. 9, won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28.

Jackie’s Warrior won a pair of Grade I races last year, the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. He then finished fourth as the 9-10 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6.

Essential Quality won the BC Juvenile at odds of 7-2. Hot Rod Charlie ran second at 94-1, while Keepmeinmind came in third at 30-1. Hot Rod Charlie currently is No. 8 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Life Is Good
3. Caddo River
4. Greatest Honour
5. Mandaloun
6. Concert Tour
7. Medina Spirit
8. Hot Rod Charlie
9. Keepmeinmind
10. Roman Centurian

The plan still is for Essential Quality to run in the Southwest, according to 2020 Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. The same goes for Jackie’s Warrior, according to Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. The two colts have been able to continue their training regimen at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds.

Because the Southwest is being run at a later date than originally scheduled, Fair Grounds’ Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 20 has been taken “out of play” for Essential Quality’s second start of the year, Cox told BloodHorse’s Bob Ehalt.

Cox said the two races “that are in play” after the Southwest for the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt are the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3 or Oaklawn’s Grade I Arkansas Derby on April 10.

As for Keepmeinmind, his Southwest status is up in the air. That’s because he is stabled at Oaklawn, the winter base of trainer Robertino Diodoro. In addition to the canceled race dates at Oaklawn, horses have not been able to train there due to the wintry conditions.

“For us to run [in the Southwest], we need to be on the track on the weekend and we’ll just play our cards from there,” Diodoro was quoted as saying in a Daily Racing Form story written by Mary Rampellini. “Our plan is still to run in it. But I really can’t see us running next weekend if we’re not on the track by Saturday.”

While Diodoro’s preference remains to run Keepmeinmind in the Southwest, the trainer stressed that “our number one goal is to do what’s right for the horse.”

If Keepmeinmind does not start in the Southwest, Diodoro said the alternate plan is for the Kentucky-bred Laoban colt to await the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 13. Like the Southwest, the Rebel is a 1 1/16-mile race.

RISEN STAR WINNER RETURNS TO DERBY TOP 10

Mandaloun is back on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week following his victory as the 2-1 favorite in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles last Saturday.

A close-up third early in the field of 11, Mandaloun took the lead with slightly more than a furlong to go, then went on to get the job done by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:50.39. Proxy came in second at 4-1. Midnight Bourbon, 5-1 in the wagering, finished third, a half-length behind Proxy.

These were the same first three finishers in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes on that same track Jan. 16, only on that occasion Midnight Bourbon won, Proxy was second and Mandaloun third.

Going into the Lecomte, Mandaloun had been No. 10 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. He dropped off my Top 10 after he did not win the Lecomte.

Senor Buscador drops off my Top 10 this week after he finished fifth as the 5-2 second favorite in the Risen Star.

The plan for Mandaloun is for him to make his next start in the $1 million Louisiana Derby, which will be contested at 1 3/16 miles.

Cox trains three on this week’s Top 10. In addition to No. 1 Essential Quality, he conditions No. 3 Caddo River and No. 5 Mandaloun.

Caddo River lost his first two starts, both at seven furlongs. The Kentucky-bred Hard Spun colt subsequently won a one-mile maiden race by 9 1/2 lengths at Churchill on Nov. 15, then cruised to a 10 1/4-length triumph in Oaklawn’s one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22. The next scheduled start for him is the $1 million Rebel.

Bob Baffert also trains three on my current Kentucky Derby Top 10. They are No. 2 Life Is Good, No. 6 Concert Tour and No. 7 Medina Spirit.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018 and Authentic in 2020).

Ben Jones likewise has six Kentucky Derby victories to his credit (Lawrin in 1938, Whirlaway in 1941, Pensive in 1944, Citation in 1948, Ponder in 1949 and Hill Gail in 1952).

Mandaloun raced with blinkers for the first time in the Risen Star. He recorded a career-best 98 Beyer Speed Figure. He now has won three of four lifetime starts. He’s been the favorite in each of his races.

In terms of other recent Risen Star winners, Mandaloun’s 98 Beyer Speed Figure stacks up quite well. It’s the highest Beyer by a Risen Star winner since El Padrino likewise posted a 98 Beyer in the 2012 renewal.

Below are the Beyer Speed Figures for Risen Star winners going back to 1992 (the figures prior to 2020 are listed in the American Racing Manual, which is now digital only):

2021 Mandaloun (98)
2020 Wells Bayou (91)
2019 War of Will (90)
2018 Bravazo (93)
2017 Girvin (93)
2016 Gun Runner (89)
2015 International Star (92)
2014 Intense Holiday (97)
2013 Ive Struck a Nerve (96)
2012 El Padrino (98)
2011 Mucho Macho Man (94)
2010 Discreetly Mine (94)
2009 Friesan Fire (97)
2008 Pyro (90)
2007 Notional (92)
2006 Lawyer Ron (106)
2005 Scipion (89)
2004 Gradepoint (98)
2003 Badge of Silver (106)
2002 Repent (102)
2001 Dollar Bill (102)
2000 Exchange Rate (97)
1999 Ecton Park (95)
1998 Comic Strip (91)
1997 Open Forum (91)
1996 Zarb’s Magic (100)
1995 Beavers Nose (92)
1994 Fly Cry (100)
1993 Dixieland Heat (93)
1992 Line in the Sand (88)

LIFE IS GOOD AGAIN FAVORED IN FUTURE WAGER

In Pool 1 of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which closed on Nov. 29, Life Is Good was the 5-1 favorite among the 22 individual horses and the “All 3-Year-Old Fillies” option. Essential Quality was the second choice at 8-1.

In Pool 2 of the KDFW, which closed on Jan. 24, Life Is Good was the 7-1 favorite among the 23 individual horses. Essential Quality again was the 8-1 second choice.

In Pool 3 of the KDFW, which closed last Sunday, Life Is Good again was the 7-1 favorite and Essential Quality the 8-1 second choice among the 23 individual horses.

The actual 3-1 favorite in Pool 3 was the “All Others” option.

Life Is Good is two for two after winning Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 2 for Baffert. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt recorded a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the Sham. Life Is Good is scheduled to make his next start in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

Authentic last year won both the Sham and San Felipe. He would go on to capture the Kentucky Derby and BC Classic for Baffert en route to 2020 Eclipse Awards as champion 3-year-old male and Horse of the Year.

Below are the final odds for Pool 3 of the 2021 KDFW:

3-1 “All Other 3-Year-Old Males”
7-1 Life Is Good
8-1 Essential Quality
9-1 Greatest Honor
14-1 Prevalence
15-1 Caddo River
16-1 Mandaloun
17-1 Concert Tour
25-1 Keepmeinmind
25-1 Medina Spirit
25-1 Risk Taking
26-1 Jackie’s Warrior
28-1 Dream Shake
30-1 Fire At Will
35-1 Candy Man Rocket
35-1 Hot Rod Charlie
37-1 Highly Motivated
38-1 The Great One
39-1 Senor Buscador
41-1 Midnight Bourbon
41-1 Roman Centurian
52-1 Freedom Fighter
74-1 Swiftsure
91-1 Nova Rags

NTRA REVEALS ITS FIRST POLLS FOR 2021

The first editions of this year’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll and Top 3-Year-old Poll were announced Tuesday.

The Top Thoroughbred Poll is indicative of who might be crowned a divisional champion and, moreover, Horse of the Year. Eligible journalists and broadcasters each week submit their Top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points basis.

The 2021 Top Thoroughbred Poll concludes after the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar on Nov. 5-6.

Voting in the final Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2021 will be released following the Grade I Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 5.

Depending on what happens this Saturday, Knicks Go’s reign at the top of the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll could be short-lived. If Knicks Go gets beat in the Saudi Cup, he no doubt will drop out of the No. 1 spot in next week’s poll. If Charlatan wins the Saudi Cup, look for him to move up a notch to No. 1 next week.

The Top 10 in the first NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2021:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 341 Knicks Go (27)
2. 250 Charlatan (4)
3. 232 Maxfield (1)
4. 223 Monomoy Girl (3)
5. 146 Colonel Liam
5. 124 Swiss Skydiver
7. 102 Jesus’ Team
8. 72 Gamine
9. 56 Channel Maker
9. 55 Whitmore

The Top 10 in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2020:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 355 Authentic (34)
2. 311 Improbable (2)
3. 309 Monomoy Girl (1)
4. 132 Vekoma
5. 111 Swiss Yodeler
6. 107 Tiz the Law
7. 104 Gamine
8. 100 Rushing Fall
9. 97 Whitmore
10. 82 Maximum Security

FIRST 3-YEAR-OLD POLL TOPPED BY ESSENTIAL QUALITY

Essential Quality received by far the most first-place votes and is No. 1 in this year’s first NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

The Top 10 in the first NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2021:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 325 Essential Quality (24)
2. 272 Life Is Good (5)
3. 212 Greatest Honour (1)
3. 212 Mandaloun (4)
5. 176 Medina Spirit
6. 137 Caddo River (1)
7. 85 Concert Tour
8. 84 Keepmeinmind
9. 66 Jackie’s Warrior
10 63 Risk Taking

The Top Three-Year-Old Poll that the NTRA released listed Mandaloun third with 212 points and Greatest Honour fourth with 204. However, a number of voters incorrectly spelled it Greatest Honor. Those eight points were not properly attributed to Greatest Honour. Thus, I have credited him with those eight points, which puts him in a tie for third with Mandaloun.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: General George Stakes at Laurel Park
February 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$250,000 GRADE 3 GENERAL GEORGE STAKES AT LAUREL PARK
Saturday, February 20, 2021

The Lead:
Winter Sprintfest was delayed a week by ... well... winter, so we'll re-rack and try again this Saturday. Winter Sprintfest features a pair of typical-President's Day Weekend fixtures for the track among 6 stakes on a loaded card. The Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie for the fillies/mares and the Grade 3 General George for the colts/geldings have warmed up winter for decades in greater DC. The Fritchie looks like a strong spot for favorite Hello Beautiful to run her local record to 8-for-8 lifetime. The General George provides quite a few more options for the discerning horseplayer.

Field Depth:
Grade 3 winners in the field include LAKI, MAJESTIC DUNHILL and SHARE THE RIDE. Meanwhile, FUNNY GUY is Grade 2-placed. Several listed stakes winners will be looking to make the grade. MAJESTIC DUNHILL has consistently kept the strongest competition since last summer, along with SHARE THE RIDE.

Pace:
There's not as much front-end speed as you'd expect for a stakes sprint, but the 7-furlong distance can dissuade some of the fleet burners. ARTHUR'S HOPE might be best-equipped to make the front, and should have the likes of LAKI, LEBDA, SHARE THE RIDE and FORTUNATE FRIENDS in closest pursuit. This race can, and is projected to be, won near the front.

Our Eyes:
Aqueduct raiders are 2-for-20 in the General George over the past 8 editions, including 2015 winner Misconnect and last year's odds-on victor Firenze Fire. FUNNY GUY vans to Laurel from his New York base and will vie for favoritism. Trainer John Terranova shipped Killybegs Captain to Laurel to win the 2019 DeFrancis Dash, but there's no guarantee FUNNY GO will appreciate the barn's return trip. Since 2013, sire Big Brown is a modest 13% winners with Laurel runners (and 1-17 at 7 furlongs). His offspring are 0 for the last 23 since December 2018. While I respect FUNNY GUY, he's been favored in each of his last 5 starts and delivered just 1 victory in a photo at 4-5. I'll try to beat him.

The 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th-place finishers from the Fire Plug Stakes at Laurel Jan. 16 all re-match, stretching out from 6 furlongs to 7. That race was won in last-to-first fashion by Wendell Fong, who will not return, but it does make you wonder if this quartet will be more susceptible over the additional ground. On the positive side, the last 4 General George winners all were adding distance off of 6-furlong sprints. And 8 straight winners of this race all came off of 4th-place or better finishes in their final prep: Good news for Fire Plug alumni SHARE THE RIDE, LEBDA and LAKI. Of those from the Fire Plug, LAKI interests me most as the beaten favorite. His price will rise, he'll be near what appears to be a soft-ish pace on Saturday and trainer Damon Dilodovico's runners hit a fantastic 30% over the last 3 years in 7-furlong sprints. LAKI was third in the 2019 General George, so he fits, and his rider Horacio Karamanos won this race in 2016. Add in a February 6 bullet workout and LAKI may be poised to deliver on his promise. He's been favored in 6 of his last 7 starts (only 1 win), but should be a more attractive price Saturday.

Note SHARE THE RIDE was able to get in a workout after the cancellation, a Sunday 3-furlong breeze at Parx to keep him on edge. That could be advantageous to sneak in the extra preparation, as did Parx-based Informative with a half-mile bullet workout Monday.

MAJESTIC DUNHILL closed 11 lengths to be runner-up in the 2019 General George under Feargal Lynch, and reunites with that pilot who recently returned from injury. Lynch had been out since last summer with neck and back fractures and just made his comeback last weekend. MAJESTIC DUNHILL is a past Laurel stakes winner who has some class edge off his recent races, albeit exits a pair of starts that were unraveled at the start. Trainer George Weaver has been on point with 4 Laurel wins from his last 9 starters, and brings this one north from Palm Beach Downs off a trio of January works. This quality colt was a past workmate with elite sprinter Vekoma.

TATTOOED cuts back in trip from the mile Jennings, where he pulled a 10-1 upset and got over the hump. He had won just 1 of his previous 17 starts, and notably TATTOOED is 0-5 in his career trying to win back-to-back.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: LAKI is 20-21 in the superfecta lifetime at Laurel.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: LEBDA does his best running at Laurel and his last race (at 11-1) was his best in some time, rounding back into form perhaps for leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $60 win LAKI; $10 exacta key-box LAKI with MAJESTIC DUNHILL and SHARE THE RIDE ($40).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

$20 Million Saudi Cup Post Position Draw Reaction
February 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
A capacity field of 14 starters entered today for Saturday’s second edition of the $20 million Saudi Cup, the headliner among 8 stakes worth at least $1 million each. Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go will start from post 5 over the 1-1/8 miles trip.

The 1-1/8 miles races at Riyadh begin on a backstretch chute that makes this a 1-turn race similar to what you see at Belmont Park. There’s about a 5-furlong run on the straight before the only left-hand turn. There’s more than ample time to get position, leaving the starting positions relatively insignificant. The lone turn is an expansive bend, so saving ground around it can be beneficial.

Front-running Knicks Go shares the marquee, and potentially the front end of the Saudi Cup, with Charlatan, who starts from post 9. Jockey intent will be important here, but being outside among this pair is likely some advantage. Charlatan from the outer draw likely applies the outside pressure to Knicks Go, drawn to his inside, at some point. Knicks Go certainly is the more committed front-runner of the pair and will be put on the track where his rider wants him into the far turn.

Knicks Go has won all 4 starts in 2020-’21, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup in back-to-back starts. Charlatan has crossed the wire comfortably first in all 4 career starts, but was disqualified from May’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby for a post-race positive test.

The American contingent also includes Tacitus (post 7), Max Player (post 4) and Sleepy Eyes Todd (post 8). Tacitus returns to Riyadh after a fifth-place finish here a year ago and has earned more than $3.2 million as a multiple Grade 2 winner. Max Player, third in the Grade 1 Belmont before fifth in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, makes his first start since October. Sleepy Eyes Todd is a Grade 2 winner of nearly $900,000 and has started in 10 different US states prior to this international roadtrip.

American runners were 4 of the first 5 across the wire last year led by Maximum Security and Midnight Bisou. Godolphin’s Benbatal was the best non-American finisher, placing third. Top world challengers in 2021 include Mishriff (post 12), last year’s Saudi Derby runner-up on dirt and French Derby hero on turf for renowned trainer John Gosden.

The first of 8 races from Saudi Cup Day begins at 8 am ET with post time for the Saudi Cup at 12:40 pm ET. Race 6 will be the Saudi Derby (11:10 am ET) and includes Steve Asmussen-trained Cowan, runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Springboard Mile and Smarty Jones Stakes.

Saudi Arabia // Race 8 // 12:40 pm ET // $20 million Saudi Cup // 1-1/8 miles

PP // name // jockey // trainer // country

1 Chuwa Wizard // Keita Tosaki // Ryuji Okubo // Japan
2 Bangkok // Ryan Moore // Andrew Balding // England
3 Great Scot // Adel Alfouraidi // Abdullah Mushrif // Saudi Arabia
4 Max Player // Umberto Rispoli // Steve Asmussen // United States
5 Knicks Go // Joel Rosario // Brad Cox // United States
6 Global Giant // Frankie Dettori // John Gosden // England
7 Tacitus // Bill Mott // United States
8 Sleepy Eyes Todd // Miguel Silva // United States
9 Charlatan // Mike Smith // Bob Baffert // United States
10 Military Law // Antonio Fresu // Musabbeh Al Mherir // United Arab Emirates
11 Simsir // Adrie de Vries // Fawzi Nass // Bahrain
12 Mishriff // David Egan // John Gosden // England
13 Derevo // Christian Demuro // A.M. Al Kahtani // Saudi Arabia
14 Extra Elusive // Hollie Doyle // Roger Charlton // England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks for Laurel's Winter Sprintfest Stakes
February 18, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s rescheduled Winter Sprintfest at Laurel Park presents a 6-stakes bonanza, co-featuring the Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie and Grade 3 General George. The Miracle Wood opens the stakes spree in Race 3, matching potential Preakness hopefuls on Maryland’s road to the Triple Crown. Whether you’re new to following Maryland racing or a seasoned veteran, the app can help you make data-driven and informed decisions.

Selections provided by the app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

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Laurel Park // Race 3 // Miracle Wood Stakes // 1:32 pm ET

#4 Maythehorsebewithu // 30%W // 48%P // 61%S
#5 Kenny Had a Notion // 21%W // 37%P // 57%S
#1 Tiz Mandate // 15%W // 34%P // 54%S
#3 The King Cheek // 10%W // 20%P // 30%S
#7 Subsidize // 10%W // 32%P // 48%S
#2 Newyearsblockparty // 8%W // 19%P // 29%S
#6 Silent Service // 5%W // 11%P // 20%S

Laurel Park // Race 4 // John B. Campbell Stakes // 2:04 pm ET

#8 Bankit // 36%W // 45%P // 59%S
#6 Dixie Drawl // 16%W // 35%P // 51%S
#4 Forewarned // 14%W // 31%P // 45%S
#7 Galerio // 12%W // 28%P // 51%S
#1 Zabracadabra // 7%W // 24%P // 32%S
#3 Cordmaker // 5%W // 20%P // 32%S
#2 Deal Driven // 5%W // 9%P // 14%S
#5 Awesome DJ // 5%W // 9%P // 14%S

Laurel Park // Race 5 // Nellie Morse Stakes // 2:37 pm ET

#9 Lucky Stride // 29%W // 50%P // 64%S
#1 Landing Zone // 19%W // 31%P // 44%S
#5 Flashnydynamite // 11%W // 22%P // 34%S
#7 Wicked Awesome // 9%W // 24%P // 36%S
#4 Lucky Move // 8%W // 17%P // 28%S
#2 Daphne Moon // 6%W // 15%P // 24%S
#8 Artful Splatter // 5%W // 12%P // 21%S
#10 Dreamer’s Moon // 4%W // 14%P // 19%S
#3 Gracetown // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#6 Pat’s No Fool // 4%W // 7%P // 13%S

Laurel Park // Race 6 // Wide Country Stakes // 3:12 pm ET

#5 Street Lute // 32%W // 46%P // 62%S
#6 Buckey’s Charm // 18%W // 40%P // 47%S
#1 My My Girl // 14%W // 30%P // 49%S
#3 Fraudulent Charge // 10%W // 24%P // 39%S
#2 Salt Plage // 8%W // 22%P // 29%S
#4 Miss Leslie // 4%W // 10%P // 29%S
#7 Little Huntress // 4%W // 9%P // 15%S
#8 Whiskey and Rye // 4%W // 9%P // 15%S
#9 Lady Clau // 4%W // 9%P // 15%S

Laurel Park // Race 7 // Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie Stakes // 3:46 pm ET

#8 Hello Beautiful // 30%W // 53%P // 60%S
#1 Sharp Starr // 20%W // 41%P // 54%S
#6 Hibiscus Punch // 19%W // 34%P // 47%S
#4 Estilo Talentoso// 7%W // 16%P // 33%S
#2 Club Car // 7%W // 17%P // 35%S
#3 Dontletsweetfoolya // 6%W // 16%P // 30%S
#5 Suggestive Honor // 5%W // 11%P // 20%S
#7 Needs Supervision // 5%W // 11%P // 20%S

Laurel Park // Race 8 // Grade 3 General George Stakes // 4:19 pm ET

#4 Majestic Dunhill // 28%W // 44%P // 56%S
#2 Funny Guy // 12%W // 29%P // 36%S
#6 Share the Ride // 11%W // 18%P // 31%S
#8 Arthur’s Hope // 11%W // 27%P // 38%S
#3 Lebda // 7%W // 16%P // 23%S
#5 Fortunate Friends // 7%W // 13%P // 20%S
#7 Informative // 7%W // 12%P // 21%S
#9 Chilly in Charge // 7%W // 19%P // 31%S
#10 Tattooed // 6%W // 13%P // 18%S
#1 Laki // 5%W // 9%P // 24%S

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

February 20, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 13-race card set to go with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Last night, Dexter Dunn led the drivers with three wins. Kelvin Harrison led the conditioners with two trips to the winner's circle. Speed held with nine of 13 winners leading at the top of the lane.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Scirocco Rob (7/2)-Just missed last week going off at 7-1 but won't be that price here. Should be forwardly placed and Dube shouldn't be far off the lead turning for the wire.
2-Buck Dancer (8/1)-Gets AMac back and he won with this 5-year-old on 1-23. Has been trying hard since moving up to this level. Could fire out and find a soft quarter and not look back.

Race 11

1-American Boy N (3-1)-Drops to the level of recent success and TMac sticks. Should be put in play early and looks like a major threat.
7-On Accident (5-1)-This is another dropper who should like the company. AMac might be sending and should land in an up-close seat. Looks like a player at a square price.
8-Warrawee Unique (7/2)-Knocked out at the start in last start at PcD and is right back at the Big M with Gingras taking a spin tonight. Not sure about blasting out to the top but might duck and move later. The pace should be brisk and that won't hurt chances for a picture.

Race 12

3-Cool Clifford (7/2)-Comes off a nice try and this is a more comfortable spot. AMac steers again, put in a flat line in last and could take a picture if minds manners.
4-Eplosive Ridge (3-1)-Callahan's choice drops to a spot to shine. Has won 3 of 6 at M1 this year and draws well enough to add to that total.

Race 13

1-Ohio Vintage (6-1)-Drops and has the speed to win at a square price. Needs the right steer and TMac was rolling down the lane with this 5-year-old on 2-6. Should be worth a swing but can't afford to be too far back at the top of lane and pilot knows the same.
4-Skyway Fireball (3-1)-Hasn't raced since 2-4 and this will be the 1st M1 start but has done good work at Hoosier on a larger oval. Dunn is between the pipes, lands in a soft spot and should be there at the wire.
6-TJ Blast (7/2)-Tried hard last week and this field isn't as tough. Needs a trip and an honest pace but off the last try it is best to respect.

0.50 Late Pick 4
1,2/1,7,8/3,4/1,4,6

Total Bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/20/21

February 20, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Arctic Roll; 6-Rocking Redhead;8-Applecross; 9-Bestrella

Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag for first-level allowance fillies and mares and requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. Applecross, a non-threatening fifth (beaten two lengths) in a similar affair last time out while taking the worst of the race-shape, adds blinkers today with the hope that the hood will help produce improved tactical speed. Yet to visit the winner’s circle in the U.S. after six starts, the former English performer has run well in better company than she’s facing today, so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll give her a slight edge on top based primarily on price. Bestrella is an interesting Irish invader making her U.S. debut with European form that makes her competitive at this level. She first arrived in California last summer and has taken a very long time to acclimate, but her recent workouts indicate she’s fairly fit, she’s run well off layoffs in the past, and lands the barn’s “go-to” rider D. Van Dyke. She’s another listed at 6-1 on the morning line, and as a first-time Lasix user she’s a “must use.” Rocking Redhead was a visually pleasing maiden winner in November at Del Mar and makes her first start since off a series of average-at-best recent workouts on the main track. She’s clearly a turf specialist, so it’s entirely possible that her morning activity doesn’t provide a true indication of her fitness. If ready, she’s more than good enough to score again. Arctic Roll, a two-time winner over the local lawn, has been away since June but has looked pretty good in recent workouts to indicate she’s fit to fire a good shot. The blinkers off angle catches the eye and so does her morning line of 15-1. She’s worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Swift as I Am; 2-Sabuda

Forecast: You can include him if you like but we have a suspicion that the 8/5 morning line favorite Hockey Dad might be worth playing against in this allowance optional claiming sprint for state-bred 3-year-olds. The son of Nyquist was impressive breaking his maiden last month on grass, but his first outing (on dirt) was far less than that and his recent workouts indicate he’s a much better mover on turf than he is on dirt. So, let’s try to beat him. Swift as I Am flopped at even money in a similar event last month but has returned to work well for J. Sadler so we’ll give him a chance to bounce back with a top effort. From the rail the son of Danza has only one way to go, so if he leaves cleanly and makes the running inside he may never look back. Sabuda earned a huge, career-top speed figure when easily disposing of maiden $50,000 foes last time out and if he can reproduce that type of effort against this stronger group the Metaboss colt could be very dangerous right back. He gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer and figures to be pressing the pace every step of the way. In a five runner field, these are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Tony Ann; 4-Just a Kiss Away; 7-Isn’t She Lovely

Forecast: This maiden special weight turf sprint for sophomore fillies came up a bit light, so we’ll use two first-timers along with the best of the known element. Isn’t She Lovely earned decent speed figures in a pair of fourth place efforts at Del Mar last summer when facing what turned out to be stakes-quality competition and could easily be a better type this time around for R. Mandella. She returns with Lasix and blinkers following a series of quick recent workouts that should have her fit and ready, and with the blazingly-hot F. Prat taking the call for a barn that has sensational stats with layoff runners, this daughter of Into Mischief is clearly the one to beat. Just a Kiss Away is a fast-working debut runner from the E. Kruljac barn with two recent bullet drills at Los Alamitos to indicate some talent. The daughter of Twirling Candy certainly is bred for speed and in a race that projects to have soft early splits she could wind up being the one to catch. Tony Ann has done some good work in the a.m. for P. D’Amato and although this stable doesn’t often win with newcomers this daughter of Cairo Prince may represent danger from off the pace.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Theluteismine; 6-Evenerevenworse; 8-June Gloom

Forecast: Maiden $50,000 claiming state-bred 3-year-olds sprint six and one-half furlongs to kick off the Rainbow Pick-6 in an anything-goes type of race that offers nothing to trust. We’ll use three and hope to get by. June Gloom is a first-timer that has attracted F. Prat and has the benefit of the cozy outside post, so the P. Miller-trained gelding, with a decent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs on his resume, rates top billing pretty much by default. A couple of recent six furlong drills should have him fit enough, so if he can run at all, this would be a good place to show it. Another debut runner, Evenereveworse, has shown a bit of ability in the a.m. for R. Ellis (quite capable with first-timers) so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll include him on our ticket. Theluteismine has hit the board in two of his last three starts with speed figures that fit at this level and clearly is the best of the experienced group. Not sure he’s worth his 9/5 morning line price but if the fresh faces aren’t much, he’s the likely winner.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Maestro Dearte; 2-Ward ‘n Jerry

Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, a 10-furlong starter’s allowance event with the two main players drawing the favorite inside post positions. Ward ‘n Jerry has been consistently racing against much tougher stakes (and in many case graded) company of late but sneaks into the field due to the unusual conditions of the race and on paper simply outclasses the field over a course that has produced four of his six career victories. The veteran son of Lucky Pulpit still appears sharp and eager in his morning trials and is a perfect two-for-two over this 10-furlong distance, so with “win rider” F. Prat staying aboard the 8-year-old gelding looks well-spotted to regain his winning form. Maestro Dearte, a sharp closing second in a $50,000 claimer almost two months ago, has trained steadily since and should appreciate today’s added distance. From the rail he’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip and having finished first or second in six of 12 starts over the local lawn the P. Eurton-trained gelding is worth including somewhere on hour ticket at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Motown Music

Forecast: Motown Music appears to have much in his favor in this allowance optional claimer over a mile on the main track. The lightly-raced and progressive son of Quality Road shows rising speed figures in each of his four races, most recently earning a strong number when second (beaten a neck) over this track and distance at this condition last month. He continues to train well, adds blinkers for the first time, switches to J. J. Hernandez, and could inherit the role as the controlling speed if his connections choose that option. In a five-runner affair and at 9/5 on the morning line, the M. Glatt-trained gelding is a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Mucho Unusual; 5-Red Lark; 8-Charmaine’s Mia

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Buena Vista S.-G2 is a deep and contentious affair offering several possibilities, some at good prices. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Charmaine’s Mia made her first start for new trainer P. D’Amato in the Las Cienegas S.-G3 earlier this meeting and left her previous form far behind with a fast, highly-rated and visually impressive win while earning a career top speed figure. Today she’ll try to prove she can handle two-turns (she finished last in her only prior route races a couple of years ago) but based on her recent workouts we’re convinced the daughter of The Factor can get the trip. While she won pressing the pace throughout in the Las Cienegas, it wouldn’t be shocking to see patient tactics employed today due to the presence of other committed speed types drawn inside of her. Mucho Unusual always gives her best, loves this turf course (five wins in nine starts) and is perfectly drawn in the two-hole that should enable her to use her excellent tactical speed to secure an ideal second flight, ground-saving journey. Red Lark is the most dangerous of the closers. Victimized by a crawling pace in the American Oaks-G1 in late December, the Irish-bred filly did well to finish as close as she did (fourth, beaten less than three lengths) and her excellent late turn of foot combined with today’s projected much quicker pace flow makes her extremely dangerous at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Varoma; 4-Made in Karoo

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this modest $30,000 maiden claiming main track miler for sophomore fillies. Made in Karoo has numbers that can win, adds blinkers, and switches to F. Prat. She certainly won’t have to improve much to beat this field. Varoma exits a series of tougher races while stretching out for the first time and seems likely to find herself as the controlling speed. She’s not particularly fast on figures and with Trippi on the bottom side of her pedigree she’s no sure thing to enjoy the distance, but if she’s ever going to stay a mile it’ll be in her first try against a group like this. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, but if you have the budget to go deeper, feel free to do so.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Cruel Intention; 2-Coast of Roan; 6-Southern Horse

Forecast: The finale is a stronger-than-par first-level allowance grass dash. Cruel Intentionjust missed as the favorite in a similar affair over this turf course when making his first start since August. He’s worked well since, so we suspect he’ll run just as well if not better today, though his inside draw at this extended sprint trip dictates his front-running strategy over a course and distance that has promoted the closing types. He picks up F. Prat so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll put him on top, but not single him. Coast of Roan returned off a layoff to win a starter’s allowance affair over this course and distance last month while earning a number that makes him a fit despite the class hike. He’s got the proper closing style for the trip and with some help up front should be quite dangerous in the final stages. Southern Hope is an Irish invader with good credentials – he was a stakes-placed twice in valuable handicaps overseas – and looks like a live item in his U.S. debut as a first-time Lasix user for J. Sadler. Based on his running style overseas, the one-time Argentine performer should be motoring home in the final stages.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 2/20/21

February 20, 2021

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Aqueduct – 8th race – Post time: 4:50 ET
8 – Brattle House (3-1)

Won her debut last November over this track and distance by a value much greater than her 5 � length margin gives her credit for, and we suspect that this New York-bred filly will deliver a repeat victory despite the class hike to this year’s edition of the Maddie May Stakes. Very quick from the gate in her first start, the daughter of Malibu Moon opened up at will entering the lane was eased up to a virtual walk in the final stages of the race to win like a future star. She’ll probably have to put in a full day’s work this time, but the C. Clement-trained sophomore, a $775,000 yearling purchase, should be more than up to the task. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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Gulfstream Park – 11th race – Post time: 5:16 ET
7 – Mrs. Danvers (2-1)

Earned a career top speed figure – one that is usually associated with Grade-1 company – when trying two turns for the first time and winning the Comely S.-G3 with complete authority in her most recent outing in late November in New York. Freshened and training like she’s fit and ready for her 4-year-old debut in this year's renewal of the Royal Delta S.-G3, the daughter of Tapit should settle just off the leaders outside and then have every chance to exert her superiority from the quarter pole home. She’s 2-1 on the morning line and she’ll offer good wagering value in the win pool at anywhere near that price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Applecross Was held up at the back behind an impossible race shape last out, but she finished up well and might be a touch more tactical with blinkers on today.
#3 Hollywood Girl Fits on form, but she has been making a habit of landing underneath pieces and she's picking up seven pounds from her latest effort.
#5 Noble Hearted Steps up for hot Eurton operation off a really nice maiden win, and should be able to land a great trip tracking the pace.
Race Summary Applecross should offer a better number today than she did when last early behind a soft pace. She's capable of something better than that and should appreciate a bit more honest pace today.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Charmaine's Mia She has been working like a star since showing up here, and she transferred that to the track in the afternoon to impressively land a Grade III last out. Route trip is a question, but she's far too sharp to ignore.
#5 Red Lark Should get a bit more honest pace to chase this time around, and she's a reliable finisher that may just need a proper setup.
#2 Mucho Unusual She has always been in with some tough customers, but she has been putting things together in recent starts. Clear threat.
Race Summary Charmaine's Mia stretches out, but she looked excellent in her local debut and has been working well since that effort.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Varoma Barn does good work stretching horses out, and this one has pace to use from the inside in a pretty soft spot.
#4 Made in Karoo Drops off flat effort at even money last out, and she'll now add blinkers while trying to find something that works to get her home.
#10 Simmer Down She handled a couple of these last time out, but she's going to have to work out a trip from a wide draw today.
Race Summary Varoma should be in the mix early on the move around two turns, and this move has been utilized with success by this team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 BOILING OAR Rallied for second in last two starts, moves outside in.
#5 WESTERN FAME Controlled pace early, pulled away in back half at Pocono.
#2 DECISION DAY Packs late kick, finished third three times in last five starts.
Race Summary Boiling Oar followed the move of the 27-1 winner and duplicated a runner-up finish at this level. He gets a favorable post switch and can make amends as the beaten favorite. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 MUSICAL RHYTHM Choice of two from top trot and layoff barn, draws rail.
#2 GRANDMA HEIDI Mare was 29/6-8-5 as a 4yo, paced evenly but ahead of top one.
#4 DANCER HALL Early move into fast pace to take lead, then went off stride.
Race Summary Musical Rhythm rallied for second behind his 7-to-5 stablemate two back at this level. The barn excels with layoff types, so play a 1-2-5-6 exacta box using stablemate Jumpshot on the ticket.

Miami Valley - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 GENERAL SIMB A Discount latest, excellent form prior, tries to upstage series of seconds.
#1 HONEY I'M HOME Winless since 2020 but good try following odds-on winner at Northfield.
#6 PINE MASTER Steps up off 13-1 upset, Sutton suits him well.
Race Summary General Simba, no factor from the second tier last week, got the jump on the 2-to-5 winner in the race prior, led on the turn and finished a clear second. Play 4-1 and 4-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Zippy Baby Was claimed by Breen for $50k last out when he was a closing second; can improve off his only local start.
#7 Richiesgotgame Faded late in his first local start and can improve; ended 2020 with two straight wins and has the speed to be dangerous.
#1 Mister Leonardo Had an eye-popping closing move for the move last time and takes a slight step up; should get a favorable pace to chase.
Race Summary Zippy Baby has been in tough races and needs his last one; in a prime spot to score.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#8 Dreams of Tomorrow Ended 2020 with a maiden win at Aqueduct and looks like a good distance turf horse for top connections.
#1 Chocolate Bar Was a clear winner last out and has had a good closing move in his last two; moves up in class and will get a solid pace in front of him.
#4 Ronthelimodriver Was second under the wire but was awarded the win in his only start; Chad Brown trainee has been off since September 2019 and has worked steadily for his return.
Race Summary Dreams of Tomorrow took six starts to break his maiden, with just two on turf; has good tactical speed and can get a sharp run from the beginning.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#4 Dream Marie Was a well-beaten second in the G3 Rampart two back and was fifth in the G2 Inside Info last out; gets a more relaxing setup going two turn and can make a good late run.
#3 Eres Tu Has taken three straight, most recently the G3 Du Pont at Laurel; has been competitive against solid fillies and mares and will be a factor from the start.
#7 Mrs. Danvers Easily won the G3 Comely at Aqueduct in November; only dull start came in the G1 Test.
Race Summary Dream Marie has run good races over the strip and should appreciate the extra ground; should be a decent price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Battaglia FREE DAILY PICK :

AQUEDUCT
RACE 7

# 7-8-5 Rating 3 stars

#7 Wailin Josie-has run well in her last three and missed by just a neck last out against similar. She drops weight and will come running late.

#8 Eloquent Speaker-finished just a neck behind our top pick last out and is the one to beat.

#5 Flush-improved last out in her second start off a year layoff to finish 5 lengths behind our top two picks. She is making her third start back today and should be ready for her best.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Richmond -9 over Duquesne

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, SATURDAY FEBRUARY 20, 2021
2/20 05:05 PM PT / 8:05 PM ET

NBA (523) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (524) CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Take: over

Reason: Both of these teams are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back night. That doesn't seem to faze them though as the Charlotte Hornets are 11-4 O/U in their last 15 games with No Rest. Golden State is 10-4 O/U in their last 14 games with not rest. The Hornets are also 7-2 O/U in their last nine games and 5-2 in their last seven at home. I like the over here tonight. Your free play is on the OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: MIAMI-OH -4½ over Northern Illinois