Sunday 2/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 06:50 AM

Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

February 21, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has a 12-race card this evening with the 0.20 Pick 4 beginning in Race 9. That sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-Sarah Toga Again (9/2)-Qualifier after a sick scratch was better than it looked, did pace the 2nd half in 57.2. Gets some necessary class relief, Plano takes the lines and that shouldn't hurt.
3-Blue Gem (15-1)-Will toss last from post 8 and could get sucked around here and stay in the mix. Can pass foes down the lane and this is a scattered bunch so will take a swing for a price.
10-Gordy Again (5-1)-Roland trainee is camera shy and fits with this crew. The post makes the price and the last 2 starts have been better. Will need a trip but if the journey is smooth it could be picture time.

Race 10

1-Bobs Time (6-1)-Comes off an even effort after an injured scratch and was off 3-weeks. Looks like a player if 100%, can close in a hurry but will need to mind manners.
2-Rockinscience (5-1)-Won at this level on 1-17, now drops to face similar and should enjoy the company. Plano trainee might be cycling back to top form and is threat to take top honors.
5-Outlaw Blue By You (7/2)-Doug Chappell is back in the bike and he gets along well with this 7-year-old. Raced from the back in last when starting from the 8-hole. Gets some needed class relief and could be sitting on a big try.
8-PH Hippie (8-1)-Versatile gelding can race on the lead or come off cover. Faced $8k claimers in last and cashed a 3rd place check. Lackey can put in play and be in striking range turning for home at a solid price.

Race 11

2-Cardinal Rule (8-1)-Steps-up after ground saving win and might be overlooked at the windows. Best to respect as last 2 races have been better. Has taken 3 pictures at CalX in 8 tries and this post draw could help chances.
4-Bettor Lady (7/2)-Has only 2 wins in last 24 starts but recent form has been sharp. Likes to roll late, Plano can work that kind of trip and the pace could be lively.

Race 12

2-Senseless Beauty (15-1)-Svendsen takes a seat and that could make a difference. Needs an efficient trip and with this post draw that could happen. Willing to take a swing for a price in a race without much form and the chalk starting outside.
3-Place At The Beach (9/2)-Drops to a better level for success. Barn has been cold but should be competitive versus this crew.
4-Selma O'Brien (6-1)-There are reasons to think Selma won't be 6-1, she has only 1 win in the last 29 starts and is 0 for 11 at CalX. All that said, did show some life last week and paced the 2nd half in .58. Stewart can get her into striking range at the top of the lane and pop at nice odds.
8-Prom Queen (2-1)-Four-year-old mare drops and should like the company but has a bunch of even efforts at this meet. Gets a positive driver change with Roland talking the lines, so will use but not with a lot of confidence.

0.20 Pick 4

2,3,10/1,2,5,8/2,4/2,3,4,8
Total Bet=$19.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 06:50 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

February 21, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Maiden claimers going long on turf never make for an easy betting proposition, but they can make for an exciting finish in the Pick 4.
Gulfstream Park’s Late Pick 4 includes a pair of allowance optional claiming races and a claiming event before the maiden-claiming run in the last race for horses that have had quite a few attempts. The suggested Late Pick 4 ticket spreads out to seven runners in the finale and totals $42. Here’s a look at the major players:

Race 8 (4:12 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

AWSUM ROAR climbed to this level last time and responded with a second-place finish. Tough 7-year-old has won 10 of 29 and loves this turf course.

ANGELCENTS won two of three races and failed as the 3-to-5 favorite in the Arlington Washington Lassie. She was well clear in the races she finished and won off a 16-month layoff last time.

GOTTA GO MO powered to an easy win in her last appearance, which came in April. Has a string of rapid works for her return.

Race 9 (4:44 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

HEIRESSINDY was on the board in her last seven, and this switch to a shorter distance should help. She lacked late punch, but that could return going 6.5 furlongs.

SLAM DUNK last appearance in the G3 Beaumont at Keeneland and lands in a spot in which she should have a strong presence. Has a long list of decent works for her return from a seven-month layoff.

Race 10 (5:16 p.m. ET, claiming)

TUSK take a 50-percent-plus cut in claiming price for this one. Tired in fast races in her last two and should respond to this drop.

ANOTHER opened a long lead and was caught by a pair of rivals late, losing by a neck. Came from off the pace for second three races back and should be able to go at a more moderate pace.

Race 11 (5:48 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

GLOBAL VISION has only two starts but was second in his debut. Tired in his first in July and is lightly to improve.

FEELING DANGEROUS has been stuck in much tougher races and can respond to this class drop in his 11th start. Expect to see him surface in the homestretch.

SELFMADE was second at Tampa last out and three seconds in nine starts. Capable of being a strong player from the outset.

GUN OF GLORY lasted for second twice in 11 starts and gets a change to Paco Lopez, who will have this one on or very near the front end. Could show more courage at this level.

MAGICAL CAUSE has been on the board in four of six races was third last out. Showed some decent run on the turf and could dig in against these.

JOYFUL SURPRISE didn’t respond to class relief last time in his first for Tomlinson but has three races on his form that would make him very tough here.

CUY made a good late run for third last out and Saez will probably have him closer to the early action this time.

Gulfstream Park’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
8) #1 Awsum Roar, #2 Angelcents, #8 Gotta Go Mo
9) #5 Heiressindy, #6 Slam Dunk.
10) #7 Tusk, #8 Another.
11) #1 Global Vision, #2 Feeling Dangerous, #4 Selfmade, #8 Gun of Glory, #9 Magical Cause, #10 Joyful Surprise, #11 Cuy.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 1-2-8 with 5-6 with 7-8 with 1-2-4-8-9-10-11 ($42).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 06:51 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 2/21/21

February 21, 2021

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Gulfstream Park – Fourth Race – Post time: 2:06 ET
3 – Salit (3-1)

Ran very well in her debut last month when overcoming a slow start and an extremely wide trip to rally with courage to finish second in a middle distance turf event for maiden special weight 3-year-old fillies. The daughter of American Pharoah seems certain to improve with that bit of experience behind her, but today she tries the main track, a concern because most of her sire’s offspring have performed considerably better on the lawn. However, a series of good main track workouts prior to her first start gives hope that she’ll adapt to the surface switch, so the K. McPeek trained filly is worth a gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Santa Anita – Eighth Race – Post time 4:20 PT
7 - Bella Vita (2-1)

Makes her first start since last May and has trained like she’s a better type now than she was then. The S. Callaghan-trained daughter of Bayern lands the lovely outside draw and can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon how F. Prat assesses the race flow. Stakes-placed last year as a 3-year-old, the daughter of Bayern returns in state-bred listed affair and seems the solid choice as a win play and rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 06:51 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/21/21

February 21, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Commanding Chief; 5-Holy Emperor; 7-Fat Stacks

Forecast: Fat Stacks shows the popular two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern combined with the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle so we’re expecting the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding to improve considerably in this modest nine furlong turf affair. Bred for the trip and with J. Hernandez staying aboard, the son of Drosselmeyer is a fit on figures and likely has more upside than most of the others who have been somewhat exposed. Commanding Chief has hit the board in nine of 11 career outings and has solid speed figures for this level. One of these days he’ll find a field he can beat, maybe today. Holy Emperor has a few races in New York that chart very well with these and picks up hot-riding F. Prat. He’s a one-paced sort but projects to draft into a good second flight spot and have every chance from there. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Fat Stacks.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Noble Contessa; 6-Paige Runner

Forecast: Paige Runner was out of her element when matched with the stakes-quality filly As Times Goes By last time out but she’s back where she belongs today and seems capable of regaining her winning form. On pure numbers, she’ a stick out. Noble Contessa, a distant second two runs back behind Paige Runner and second again in her most recent start, seems likely to fire a good shot and will be especially dangerous if ‘Runner regresses. She’s most effective on the front end and could take this field a long way if not pressured early.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Clearly Gone; 3-Too Much Heaven

Forecast: Clearly Gone drops to a realistic spot while remaining above her claim level, and in her second start off a layoff the P. Miller-trained mare picks up F. Prat and lands a good inside draw in this $32,000 seller for fillies and mares. She’s won over this course in the past and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip. Too Much Heaven is slightly slower on pure speed figures than ‘Gone but warrants a decent look while returning to her winning level. In a field without much pace, she might inherit the role as the controlling speed. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Clearly Gone on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler is inscrutable. Half the field exits the same race and none are trustworthy. We’ll pass the race while suggesting that rolling exotic players use as many as their budget allows.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Epidemic; 3-Tivoli Twirl; 8-Eagle Chief

Forecast: Tivoli Twirl flashed intense speed in a hot race but faded badly in the stretch in a disappointing debut earlier this month. The son of Twirling Candy switches to grass and removes blinkers, so we’re expecting a much better performance from a colt who had performed nicely in a.m. drills prior to his first start. A nice half mile breeze just four days ago should have him on edge, so at 4-1 on the morning line the B. Baffert-trained colt may offer some good wagering value. Eagle Chief shows an improving pattern with rising speed figures in each of his three starts to date. A decent third over this course and distance three weeks ago, the gelded son of Into Mischief projects to settle in the second flight and then be first over should the speed types wilt under pressure. Epidemic has trained like a quick colt for his debut and is worth tossing in at 8-1 on the morning line. The rail draw sprinting on grass this meeting has been a death trap, but if he leaves running the R. Hanson-trained son of Orb may get loose early and brave late. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Tivoli Twirl.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Michalska

Forecast: Michalska appears to be a progressive type, and after finishing a good second in a similar affair sprinting on turf the daughter of Jimmy Creed switches back to the main track while continuing to look sharp in a.m. preps. The A. Marques-trained sophomore graduated at first asking on dirt during the fall Del Mar season, regains J. Hernandez, and projects to settle into a stalking position with dead aim on the leaders at the head of the lane. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Jamming Eddy; 7-Ian Glass

Forecast: Let’s take a shot and put Ian Glass on top in this turf sprint for $40,000 older claimers. The Hard Spun gelding won a two-turn miler vs. $25,000 seller last month, was haltered by S. MIyadi (strong stats with this angle) and shows the route-to-sprint angle and a sharp recent workout for his new connections. The projected pace flow looks soft, so we’re anticipating a good stalking trip at or near his morning linen of 5-1. Jamming Eddy exits a hot race on the dirt – he was a weakening fifth after prompting a blazing pace – and if the P. Miller-trained gelding can shake loose early he could easily roll all the way to the wire. F. Prat, who has won on him in the past, stays aboard.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Bella Vita

Forecast: Bella Vita makes her first start since last May and has trained like she’s better now than she was then. The S. Callaghan-trained daughter of Bayern lands the lovely outside draw and can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon how F. Prat assesses the race flow. Stakes placed last year during her 3-year-old campaign, the daughter of Bayern returns in state-bred listed affair and seems the solid choice as a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 2-1.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-She’s a Perfectlady; 9-La V.; 10-New Drama

Forecast: Shes’a Perfectlady drops into a seller for the first time and may have found her friends. The J. Sadler-trained filly shows the route-to-sprint angle, drops out of straight maiden competition, switches to F. Prat, and turned in a recent bullet workout over the training track to have her on edge. La V., away for almost a year, returns in a soft spot, removes blinkers, and showed enough ability last year to expect she’ll act very well against this level of competition. The work tab looks intriguing, so the daughter of Midnight Lute could easily fire a big shot off the bench. New Drama, another returning off a long layoff, also can be expected to be dangerous in her first start for a tag. She gets a break in the weights with bug boy D. Centeno aboard and her speed figures in a pair of outings last year make her a strong fit at this level.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 08:57 AM

25PHILADELPHIA -26 BOSTON
BOSTON is 226-214 ATS (47.7 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game since 1996.

31MONTREAL -32 OTTAWA
OTTAWA is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

33WINNIPEG -34 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in home games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

87NEW JERSEY -88 WASHINGTON
NEW JERSEY is 46-29 ATS (14.1 Units) in road games when playing 3 or less games in 10 days since 1996.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 08:58 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 21

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PHILADELPHIA (8-3-0-3, 19 pts.) vs. BOSTON (10-3-0-2, 22 pts.) - 2/21/2021, 2:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 59-40 ATS (+15.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 94-93 ATS (+208.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-6 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units)

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MONTREAL (9-4-0-2, 20 pts.) at OTTAWA (4-14-0-1, 9 pts.) - 2/21/2021, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 9-3 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 2-16 ATS (+23.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 4-16 ATS (+25.7 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 7-3 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-3-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

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WINNIPEG (10-6-0-1, 21 pts.) at VANCOUVER (8-12-0-1, 17 pts.) - 2/21/2021, 10:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 1-8 ATS (-7.4 Units) after shutting out their opponent in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 24-17 ATS (+41.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 18-14 ATS (+33.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-1 (+4.9 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 6-1-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.1 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (6-3-0-2, 14 pts.) at WASHINGTON (8-4-0-3, 19 pts.) - 2/21/2021, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 109-75 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 20-26 ATS (-23.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 3-5 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-3-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 08:58 AM

NHL

Sunday, February 21

Trend Report
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New Jersey @ Washington
New Jersey
New Jersey is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New Jersey is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Jersey

Montreal @ Ottawa
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Montreal is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Montreal

Philadelphia @ Boston
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Boston
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games

Winnipeg @ Vancouver
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Winnipeg is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 08:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 Naismith Debuts for a capable team, and he'll probably offer a playable kind of price right out of the box. Ready to roll.
#9 Ambivalent Gets Lasix while dropping back in with maidens after finishing his 2020 campaign with a couple of graded stakes tries. The one to beat, but he has lost twice at this level already.
#8 Eagle Chief He has yet to find a real finishing gear, but he has landed a couple of underneath slices since moving to the turf. Not out of it.
Race Summary Naismith looks ready to play at first asking in a spot where both of those with experience look capable and likely to take some action.

Santa Anita - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Maddie's Mojito She looked like a different horse when racing with Lasix and blinkers for the new team, and she should be able to land another perfect trip near the top.
#6 Becca Taylor She already has a win at this condition on the turf, and she has done nothing wrong through two starts. Another spy and finish trip should be in the cards.
#5 Big Stretch She finished up nicely behind Becca Taylor on the turf last out, and she may be along late for a piece with these. A bit of a stretch on top.
Race Summary Maddie's Mojito was sharp in victory last out when making her 3yo debut, and she should get first jump on the speed turning for home before the challenge from Becca Taylor.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Hollywood Hills She was a stakes winner at 7f on the main track at Del Mar last summer, and she has some room to move forward after a dull comeback on the lawn.
#7 Bella Vita Tactical speed has shown up in all four career starts, and this is a softer spot than the last two stakes groups she has tried. The one to beat.
#4 She's a Dime She'd need her very best to threaten for top honors here on the hike, but she's a pretty reliable finisher that can land a share here.
Race Summary Hollywood Hills might be the right one to use to beat Bella Vita, as she owns some good sprint efforts and proved she could handle the dirt last summer.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 08:59 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Elusive Molly Usually a pace factor and comes off a third when she was claimed by Croft; has good front-end energy and can stretch out.
#4 Don't Get Khozy Closed well in her last three and has enough speed to stay within range; in good form and likes the track.
#3 Chez Paree Was an easy winner in two of her last three, including a four-length score at this distance last time out; makes her third off the claim for Kopaj.
Race Summary Elusive Molly has good speed, likes the pace of the mile races and can have enough left to fight it out.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Gearhead Made a huge run for fourth last time and can be in a good position to make another run here; one to hold off as he runs back for the same claiming price.
#2 Financial System Drops out of much tougher races than this and is likely to show significant improvement.
#7 Twenty Four Seven Lost a photo last time as he made a eye-catching run for second; in good form and a big player.
Race Summary Gearhead can save ground and will have enough pace in front of him to aid in his rally; can win if he makes a similar move as he did last time when fourth, beaten a length.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Salit Made a bold move on the turf for third last time and moves over to the main track; daughter of American Pharoah shouldn't find a probably with the switch.
#6 Pharoah's Belle Another daughter of American Pharoah, this one leveled out in fourth in a fast sprint last time and should find the pace and distance of this longer race more to her liking.
#5 Wow Has seen nothing but turf in four starts and has come up with three seconds; has some gameness to her and the distance is not a problem.
Race Summary Salit moves over after a good turf effort in which she was left well back and made an impressive run; will be part of the action earlier in this one and will be one to watch for in the stretch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2021, 09:22 AM

Paul Leiner

NBA & CBB Picks 2/21" Top play missed yesterday. It was a Sloppy game with UConn/Nova.

100* St Bonaventure -5
100* Penn State +11.5
100* Knicks -2.5