Saturday 2/27/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Turfway Park

02/27/21, TP, Race 2, 6.46 ET
02/27/21,TP,2,1M [Dirt] 1:35:00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $10,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Claiming Price $7,500.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	12	Empty Holster	4/1	Corrales G	Rivelli Larry	JTSFC	223	26.01	1.26/$1
095.8211	5	Captain Billy Roy	4/1	Gonzalez S	Tomlinson Michael A.		223	26.01	1.26/$1
095.5942	7	To Kalon	7/2	Landeros C	Thomas Jonathan		223	26.01	1.26/$1
095.2870	13	Creasy	4/1	Bejarano R	Hardin Billy	W	223	26.01	1.26/$1
095.0564	10	Sonic Burn	10/1	Ouzts P W	Petersen Annette		223	26.01	1.26/$1
094.4434	2	Viserion Ice	30/1	Prescott R A	Weintraut Shelby		223	26.01	1.26/$1
094.3835	1	Samson Lee	3/1	Franklin M	Drury. Jr. Thomas	EL	223	26.01	1.26/$1
094.3122	14	Mr. Banyan	10/1	Morales E	Howard Neil J.		223	26.01	1.26/$1
094.2438	9	Likely Legal	20/1	Gomez A	Sandy Stephen S.		223	26.01	1.26/$1
093.9895	3	Snapy Twelves	20/1	Esquivel E	Gallagher William E.		223	26.01	1.26/$1
093.4523	4	Sir Nuisance	15/1	Canuto T	Rangel Arnulfo		223	26.01	1.26/$1
092.2065	6	Cavu Command	15/1	Mojica. Jr. R	Rider David M.		223	26.01	1.26/$1
088.0628	11	Raising Dreams	20/1	Ramos J D	Carvalho Diocilio		223	26.01	1.26/$1
087.7424	8	Mattersoftheheart(b+)	20/1	De Leon A	Bradley William B.		223	26.01	1.26/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 0.00, ROI 0.00/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -4.1789
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]RaceSexNotFemales

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AI Picks for This Week's Triple Crown Preps

February 26, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This weekend offers a trio of Triple Crown prep races toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. To help you tackle the diverse set of races, the app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the John Battaglia Memorial from Turfway Park, the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

Selections provided by the app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

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Friday, Feb. 26 // Turfway Park // John Battaglia Memorial Stakes // Race 5 // 8:16 PM ET

#1 Gretzky the Great // 28%W // 48%P // 59%S
#6 Pico d’Oro // 18%W // 29%P // 40%S
#3 Twirling Mamba // 10%W // 21%P // 30%S
#4 Like the King // 9%W // 22%P // 32%S
#8 Hush of a Storm // 8%W // 15%P // 25%S
#11 Catman // 5%W // 13%P // 21%S
#12 Warrior in Chief // 4%W // 10%P // 18%S
#9 Fort Moultrie // 4%W // 9%P // 14%S
#13 Bakwena // 4%W // 12%P // 16%S
#2 The Predicament // 3%W // 5%P // 11%S
#5 Kinetic Sky // 3%W // 5%P // 11%S
#7 Hard Rye Guy // 3%W // 5%P // 11%S
#10 Notable Exception // 3%W // 5%P // 11%S

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Saturday, Feb. 27 // Oaklawn Park // Grade 3 Southwest Stakes // Race 10 // 5:58 PM ET

#4 Jackie’s Warrior // 26%W // 47%P // 65%S
#1 Essential Quality // 20%W // 38%P // 55%S
#7 Spielberg // 13%W // 25%P // 35%S
#6 Woodhouse // 13%W // 31%P // 48%S
#2 Saffa’s Day // 12%W // 26%P // 44%S
#3 Last Samurai // 9%W // 18%P // 30%S
#5 Santa Cruiser // 6%W // 15%P // 23%S

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Saturday, Feb. 27 // Gulfstream Park // Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth // Race 14 // 6:10 PM ET

#8 Greatest Honour // 27%W // 38%P // 49%S
#1 Drain the Clock // 17%W // 38%P // 49%S
#2 Prime Factor // 12%W // 21%P // 36%S
#7 Tarantino // 8%W // 19%P // 31%S
#10 Papetu // 8%W // 25%P // 38%S
#5 Jirafales // 8%W // 12%P // 20%S
#4 Fire At Will // 6%W // 14%P // 27%S
#6 King’s Ovation // 6%W // 12%P // 22%S
#3 Sososubtle // 4%W // 10%P // 15%S
#9 Tiz Tact Toe // 4%W // 10%P // 12%S

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Fountain of Youth Stakes Post Draw Reaction

February 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Ten runners passed the entry box for Saturday’s Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes, featured among 9 stakes on a 14-race card. The action gets underway at 11:30 am ET with post time for the main event slated for 6:10 pm ET. Greatest Honour, winner of the Jan. 30 Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, headlines the Fountain of Youth and will begin from post 8 as the 9-5 morning line favorite. He’ll try to give trainer Shug McGaughey his third victory in this race since 2013, joining Orb and Code of Honor.

The Fountain of Youth re-matches the top-5 finishers of the Holy Bull. In addition to Greatest Honour, returnees include Tarantino (post 8), beaten 6-5 favorite Prime Factor (post 2), Papetu (post 10) and Jirafales (post 5). Tarantino and Prime Factor have the most speed of the Holy Bull returnees and the draw gives Prime Factor the decided advantage among those with a short run into the clubhouse turn.

The Fountain of Youth pace almost certainly comes from 7-furlong Swale winner Drain the Clock, who drew post 1 and will be on a send-mission. This will be his first 2-turn bid after winning 4 of 5 sprints. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Fire at Will begins from post 4 in his sophomore return and will be able to save ground, but may take dirt in his face racing inside and behind others. The wider draw for late-running Greatest Honour should be mitigated some if he’s patient into the clubhouse turn.

Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth with jockeys and official track morning line odds:

#1 Drain the Clock // Edgard Zayas // 5-1
#2 Prime Factor // Irad Ortiz Jr. // 5-1
#3 Sososubtle // Paco Lopez // 20-1
#4 Fire at Will // Kendrick Carmouche // 7-2
#5 Jirafales // Javier Castellano // 20-1
#6 King's Ovation // Corey Lanerie // 15-1
#7 Tarantino // Tyler Gaffalione // 8-1
#8 Greatest Honour // Jose Ortiz // 9-5
#9 Tiz Tact Toe // Rajiv Maragh // 30-1
#10 Papetu // Junior Alvarado // 15-1

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Race of the Week: Saturday's Gulfstream Park Mile
February 25, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$200,000 GRADE 2 GULFSTREAM PARK MILE
Saturday, February 27, 2021

The Lead:
Saturday's 14-race Fountain of Youth Stakes Day card at Gulfstream is one of the early season's best, and its 9 stakes offerings span most of racing's premier divisions. The 3-year-olds get the glamour this time of year in the main event, but the Rainbow 6 kicks off with a dandy in Race 9. Four of the top five finishers in the Jan. 23 Fred W. Hooper Stakes re-match and meet a quartet of fresh faces.

Field Depth:
TAX has won at the Grade 2 level. PERFOMER is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. PHAT MAN is a Grade 3 winner and runner-up in this race a year ago. The rest are out to prove their class. TAX has consistently kept the strongest running lines over the past few seasons.

Pace:
WIND OF CHANGE stretches out from the 6-furlong Gulfstream Park Sprint and should be winging on the front end. There's little other confirmed pace, so rider intent will be key and the one who can sit second and get the first-over trip could be in a great spot.

Our Eyes:
At 4-5 odds, PERFORMER was supposed to punch out the Fred W. Hooper field with more ease than he did. Instead it was a neck tussle with 13-1 shot EYE OF A JEDI from 7% connections. The favorite survived, but the longshot actually galloped out better, a testament to just how uninspired PERFORMER ran that day. This wasn't a case of doing just enough. PERFORMER's workout at XBTV on Feb. 21 at Payson Park was encouraging as he looked sharp and the exercise rider was a statue in a bullet drill. But how dependable can we lean on PERFORMER, who has run only 8 times as his 5-year-old season unfolds? He's run in back-to-back months just once in his career. He looks best of the Hooper returnees, though EYE OF A JEDI certainly will again offer better value.

TAX drops out of the Pegasus World Cup where he pressed and tired in an impossible journey chasing burner Knicks Go. He's since worked on turf for red-hot trainer Danny Gargan, a move that he interestingly pulled prior to finishing a good second to PERFORMER in last year's Discovery Handicap. We'll see if he gets that turf-to-dirt bounce again while adding blinkers. He looked to be going very easy in that turf drill at XBTV, and running fast without exerting. Note the blinkers were not employed in the drill.

FEARLESS has hinted at future stardom, but yet to deliver in stakes company. He's 2-for-2 at Gulfstream with a pair of scores last winter around 1 and 2 turns. He's been away since June's Stephen Foster at Churchill, so that tells you what trainer Todd Pletcher thought of his ability last summer. This horse consistently runs some of the most monstrous BRIS late pace figures I've seen, and they've improved in each of his 6 career races. I loved his workouts on video at XBTV, zipping bullet times in a total jog while finishing up nicely. The turn-back in distance while fresh and firing in the a.m. is a great recipe, along with leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. finally reuniting.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: PERFORMER has never missed the trifecta and is a course and distance winner.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: WIND OF CHANGE takes them as far as he can on the front end, and he did win a Gulfstream dirt mile allowance at 19-1 in a career-best effort last March.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $100 win FEARLESS.

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BATTAGLIA Daily Free PLay :

AQUEDUCT
RACE 4

# 3-1-9-4 Rating: 2 stars

#3 Tri Saint Lorenzo-has improved since adding blinkers four starts back with two wins and a third. The third was last out at this same level in a key race in which the top two finishers came back to win their next starts. He is improving and should be a decent price.

#1 The Entry-both parts of the entry are dropping in class. The #1 has the speed and the #1A will come running late.

#9 Financialstability-finished just a head behind the #1 last out and has rallied to be in the money in 4 of his 5 starts here.

#4 Beta-long shot play went nuts last out and went wire to wire to win by 10 lengths in by far his best performance to date. He gets hot riding Mccarthy and maybe they found his hole card.

#8 Royal Kaz-fought for the lead last out before finishing 4th beaten 3 lengths while finishing just a length behind a come back winner. That was his first start over this track and he will be close from the start.

#1A Brunate- got a head in front late but had to settle for third beaten just 2 ½ lengths while beating our top pick by half a length. He needed that one after coming off a 3 month layoff and is the one to beat.

#4 Alite-ran his best race to date last out to finished second beaten less than two lengths. He gets a rider upgrade and that will help his chances.

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Jon White's Picks for Southwest Stakes & Fountain of Youth
February 25, 2021 | By Jon White
It looks like this year’s Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park is finally going to be run.

The Southwest originally had been scheduled for Feb. 15. But because of the unusual wintry weather at this time of the year in that region, the race was moved to Feb. 20, then to Feb. 21. And then it was moved yet again to this Saturday. All indications are it’s not going to be moved again.

Heading the field of seven in the Southwest is Essential Quality, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt, who is three for three, will be making his first start since winning the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 7-2 last Nov. 6 at Keeneland. He also won last year’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 3.

Brad Cox trains Essential Quality, who breaks from the inside post Saturday.

Also making his 2021 debut in the Southwest is Jackie’s Warrior, who finished fourth as the 9-10 favorite in the BC Juvenile, his lone defeat in five lifetime starts. The Kentucky-bred Maclean’s Music colt was four for four prior to his setback at the Breeders’ Cup. He won last year’s Grade II Saratoga Special in August, Grade I Hopeful Stakes in September at Saratoga and Grade I Champagne Stakes in October at Belmont Park.

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen conditions Jackie’s Warrior, who drew post 4 in the Southwest.

The first four finishers in the Southwest will earn 10-4-2-1 points toward the Kentucky Derby.

One horse I absolutely would have thrown out in the Southwest if he had been entered is Keepmeinmind. Winner of the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs in his most recent start, he would have had his work cut out for him vs. Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior under the best of circumstances.

But Keepmeinmind missed too much training due to Oaklawn’s track being closed to have had any legitimate shot to beat Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior in the Southwest. I honestly wonder if Man o’ War, Secretariat or Citation could have defeated Essential Quality or Jackie’s Warrior this Saturday if they had gone into the race having missed as much training as Keepmeinmind has for trainer Roberto Diodoro.

Considering the training Keepmeinmind has missed, his connections made the decision -- wisely, in my opinion -- to target Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on March 13. The Rebel will be contested at the same 1 1/16-mile distance as the Southwest.

For me, in terms of the Southwest, choosing between Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior is extremely difficult. Jackie’s Warrior probably is going right to the front and will be able to set a comfortable pace. This is in contrast to the BC Juvenile. Jackie’s Warrior chased a hot pace in the BC Juvenile, then paid the price and weakened in the final furlong.

On the other hand, ever since Essential Quality’s first race, I have thought he could be a special colt. When unveiled in a six-furlong maiden race at Churchill on Sept. 5, he had a troubled trip, yet overcame it and won by four emphatic lengths while giving every indication he would relish going farther.

Next, Essential Quality was a pace factor from the outset and won the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity by 3 1/4 lengths. And then in the 1 1/16-mile BC Juvenile, he was eighth early and rallied to win by three-quarters of a length.

My BC Juvenile selections were: 1. Essential Quality, 2. Jackie’s Warrior, 3. Reinvestment Risk. Sittin On Go was my “nice-price danger.”

In terms of Saturday’s Southwest, I’m again picking Essential Quality to win. I do so even though I think this just might be an ideal situation in terms of pace for Jackie’s Warrior to avenge his BC Juvenile defeat. But I would feel like a traitor if I don’t stick with Essential Quality after he came through for me at the Breeders’ Cup and paid $9.20 to win.

My selections for the Southwest are below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Jackie’s Warrior
3. Spielberg
4. Saffa's Day

GREATEST HONOUR TOPS FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH

Coming off his decisive 5 3/4-length triumph in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at odds of 5-2 on Jan. 30, Greatest Honour no doubt will be a strongly backed favorite in Saturday’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at that same track.

The Fountain of Youth, which has enticed a field of 10, will reward the first four finishers with 50-20-10-5 points toward a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, Greatest Honour lost his first three races, then won a 1 1/16-mile maiden contest at Gulfstream on Dec. 26. He went on to get his maiden diploma at Gulfstream on Dec. 26, followed by his Holy Bull victory in his stakes debut.

Considering the short price Greatest Honour is going to be this Saturday, I would love to pick against him. But I can’t, not off what I saw from the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt in the Holy Bull.

My selections for the Fountain of Youth are below:

1. Greatest Honour
2. Fire At Will
3. Drain the Clock
4. Prime Factor

Greatest Honour takes an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern into the Fountain of Youth. He recorded a 72 Beyer at first asking, then a 77, then a 79, then an 83, then an 89 in the Holy Bull.

I admit that, for me, Greatest Honour’s breeding does add to his appeal. He’s a son of the premier sire Tapit and the Street Cry mare Tiffany’s Honour. Tiffany’s Honour is a half-sister to Rags to Riches and Jazil.

Rags to Riches was voted a 2007 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly. She won the Grade I Belmont Stakes that year by defeating no less a foe than Curlin, who subsequently was twice voted Horse of the Year.

One would think that becoming the first filly to win the Belmont in 102 years would go a long way toward getting Rags to Riches into the Hall of Fame. But so far she has not received enough support to join that exclusive club. The biggest stumbling block seems to be that Rags to Riches made only seven career starts.

But despite making just seven career starts, Rags to Riches won more Grade I races (four) than Winning Colors (three) or Genuine Risk (two). Winning Colors, the 1988 Kentucky Derby winner, and Genuine Risk, the 1980 winner of the Run for the Roses, are both in the Hall of Fame, as they should be.

For those Hall of Fame voters who refuse to give a thumbs up to Rags to Riches, what about Justify? He made only six lifetime starts, yet I’d say it’s a slam-dunk that Justify will be elected to the Hall of Fame when he first becomes eligible in 2024. Mainly for his feat of sweeping the Triple Crown, Justify will deservedly go into the Hall of Fame.

And when Justify does get into the Hall of Fame off only six career starts, it will help point out just how ludicrous it is that Rags to Riches has been kept out of the Hall of Fame primarily because she made just seven career starts.

Fire At Will does intrigue me in the Fountain of Youth. He is another who has an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern. The Kentucky-bred Declaration of War colt received a 63 Beyer in his first race, then a 75, then an 80, then a 90 when he won the Grade I BC Juvenile Turf by three lengths as a 30-1 outcast in the betting.

It was rather surprising to see Fire At Will sport such long odds at the Breeders’ Cup following his two-length win in the Grade II Pilgrim Stakes on turf Oct. 3 at Belmont.

Fire At Will does have experience racing on dirt. As a maiden, he won the off-the-turf With Anticipation Stakes on a sloppy Saratoga main track prior to the Pilgrim. Of course, he is facing a much tougher task on the dirt this time when going against such a tough opponent as Greatest Honour.

I am very interested to see if Fire At Will can give a good account of himself in a Grade II affair on dirt this Saturday. If he does, the Grade I Florida Derby on March 27 and quite possibly the Grade I Kentucky Derby on May 1 could be in the cards for him. If Fire At Will does not run well Saturday, look for him to go back to racing on turf.

Fountain of Youth entrant Drain the Clock is coming off a 6 1/4-length win in Gulfstream’s Grade III Swale Stakes at seven furlongs on Jan. 30. Victorious in four of five career starts, the Kentucky-bred Maclean’s Music colt most assuredly can be excused for his only defeat.

In the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Louisiana’s Delta Downs last Nov. 30, Drain the Clock raced close up early, then had a stirrup break and unseated jockey Heriberto Figueroa on the backstretch.

For some, that incident conjures up memories of the 1970 Longacres Mile, the biggest race in the Pacific Northwest. Turbulator was favored in that race at 6-5 when coming off a win in which he lowered the world record for 6 1/2 furlongs by two-fifths of a second. But his left stirrup broke leaving the starting gate. Miraculously, jockey Larry Pierce stayed on Turbulator, but it was far from easy. In spite of a broken stirrup and being boxed in for every step of the final three furlongs, Turbulator lost that race by only 2 1/2 lengths. Many consider it the finest performance in defeat in the history of racing in the Pacific Northwest.

By the way, Drain the Clock is owned by Slam Dunk Racing and Madaket Stables. Nick Cosato is the managing partner of Slam Dunk Racing. Cosato is the person who made a $500 wager at the Wynn Sports & Race Book in Las Vegas on Justify to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby at odds of 300-1. Cosato collected $150,000 when he cashed that ticket.

Prime Factor attempts to rebound in the Fountain of Youth after finishing a disappointing third as the 11-10 favorite in the Holy Bull. The Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt wound up 9 1/2 lengths behind Greatest Honour that afternoon.

Quality Road won the 2009 Fountain of Youth.

PLETCHER, RAGS TO RICHES HALL OF FAME FINALISTS

Todd Pletcher trains Prime Factor. Todd Pletcher is an absolute cinch to be voted into the Hall of Fame this year in his first year of eligibility. He trained Rags to Riches.

Pletcher and Rags to Riches are among the 10 finalists announced Wednesday for 2021 Hall of Fame induction. How wonderful would it be if both Pletcher and Rags to Riches were to get voted into the Hall of Fame in the same year? But my guess is that while Pletcher is going into the Hall of Fame this year, Rags to Riches probably once again will be denied membership.

The other Hall of Fame finalists this year are American Pharoah (first year of eligibility), Blind Luck, Game On Dude, Havre de Grace and Kona Gold, plus jockey Corey Nakatani and trainers Christophe Clemente and Doug O’Neill.

American Pharoah, who in 2015 became the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, joins Pletcher as a foregone conclusion to be voted into the Hall of Fame this year.

The 2021 inductees will be announced on May 5.

BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL SET FOR FRIDAY NIGHT

An overflow field of 13, including one also eligible, is entered in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park on Friday evening. The 1 1/16-mile race will be contested on a synthetic surface and offers Kentucky Derby points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale.

This race is named in honor of the late general manager of Latonia, which is now Turfway Park. John Battaglia’s son, of course, is Mike Battaglia, a longtime track announcer and morning-line maker who called a slew of Kentucky Derbies and still makes the morning-line odds for the 1 1/4-mile classic.

I once worked with a member of the Battaglia family. When I was a Daily Racing Form chart-caller at Louisiana Downs in 1976, my call-taker was John Battaglia Jr.

Mike Battaglia has said that his father first got involved in horse racing by providing selections to The Kentucky Post newspaper. John Battaglia told the editor of the paper that he could do a better job of picking winners than the guys who were doing it. Battaglia said that if he didn’t pick more winners, they didn’t have to pay him.

I have to think even John Battaglia would not have had an easy time trying to pick the winner of this year’s John Battaglia Memorial. It looks like it’s a wide-open race to me.

My John Battaglia Memorial selections are below:

1. Kinetic Sky
2. Gretzky the Great
3. Catman
4. Pico d’Oro

After picking the chalky Essential Quality to win the Southwest and the chalky Greatest Honour to win the Fountain of Youth, I’m shooting for a better price in the Battaglia Memorial. Kinetic Sky is 9-2 on the morning line.

Brad Cox trains Kinetic Sky. Cox seems to win just about everything these days (except the Saudi Cup with Knicks Go). A Kentucky-bred by the hot sire Runhappy, Kinetic Sky comes off a three-length maiden win in a Fair Grounds maiden race at one mile and 70 yards.

In Kinetic Sky’s only other start in New Orleans, he finished third behind Proxy and Afwan on Nov. 26. Proxy would go on to finish second in Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte Stakes and Grade II Risen Star Stakes.

Gretzky the Great, the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the Battaglia Memorial, makes his first start since finishing sixth in the BC Juvenile Turf last Nov. 6. He won the Grade I Summer Stakes on turf before that at Woodbine.

Trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, Gretzky the Great is named for the legendary hockey player who also has owned a piece of a number of Thoroughbreds through the year. For example, Gretzky was involved in the ownership of Golden Pheasant, an Arlington Million and Japan Cup winner who happens to be the all-time favorite horse of Frank Mirahmadi, Santa Anita’s track announcer.

Who knows? Maybe two horses named for Gretzky will make their way into the starting gate for this year’s Kentucky Derby. The Great One, a 14-length maiden winner at Santa Anita on Jan. 23 after losing the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose to Spielberg, also is named for Gretzky. Doug O’Neill trains The Great One, who is scheduled to make his next start against Life Is Good and company in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

Catman has lost three straight since winning the Laurel Futurity on turf last Oct. 3. Trained by Michael Maker, perhaps Catman can get into the superfecta at what should be a juicy price (15-1 morning line) in Friday’s Battaglia Memorial. I might have picked Catman higher than third if he had drawn a better post than 11.

Another superfecta candidate is Pico d’Oro (8-1 morning line). Billy Morey trains Pico d’Oro, who finished a close third in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 31. The Kentucky-bred Curlin colt was victorious in his lone start at Turfway. That could bode well for him under the lights Friday.

MY KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

There are no changes to my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. Of course, that is highly unlikely to be the case again next week. In all likelihood, what happens in this Saturday’s Southwest and Fountain of Youth will have an impact on next week’s Top 10.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Life Is Good
3. Caddo River
4. Greatest Honour
5. Mandaloun
6. Concert Tour
7. Medina Spirit
8. Hot Rod Charlie
9. Keepmeinmind
10. Roman Centurian

LIFE IS GOOD CONTINUES TO SPARKLE IN A.M.

Last Sunday morning at Santa Anita, Life Is Good once again was poetry in motion when he effortlessly worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. The workout was listed as breezing rather than handily by the official clockers.

At Southern California tracks, a workout rarely is listed as breezing, which is to indicate that the horse worked considerably easier without any urging at all than a horse whose workout is termed handily.

This was the sixth consecutive workout by Life Is Good that has been listed as breezing.

As someone who has covered racing at Southern California tracks in one capacity or another since 1981, I do not recall another horse having such a string of breezing works.

What’s also noteworthy is two of Life Is Good’s breezing works have been bullet drills. When a horse goes so easily to get a rare breezing designation, it’s even rarer for the work to be the fastest of the day at the distance.

On Feb. 8, Life Is Good’s six-furlong work in 1:12.00 breezing was the fastest of nine works at the distance that morning. Last Sunday, his five-furlong drill in :59.60 was the fastest of 54.

Life Is Good now has had 18 recorded SoCal works. None were listed as breezing prior to his current streak of six straight. To put what Life is Good has been doing into some context, consider how it compares to some of the other elite horses trained by Baffert, such as 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

American Pharoah had 27 recorded workouts prior to the Kentucky Derby. None were listed as breezing. During American Phoroah’s entire racing career, only two of his 42 SoCal works were listed as breezing.

Justify had 17 SoCal works before the Kentucky Derby. Again, none was listed as breezing.

What about 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic? Due to COVID-19, the Kentucky Derby was moved from May 2 to Sept. 5. Only one of Authentic’s 56 SoCal works prior to the Kentucky Derby was listed as breezing.

Arrogate did not run in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. He blossomed during the second half of the year and smashed Saratoga’s 1 1/4-mile track record when he won the Grade I Travers by 13 lengths. Arrogate would go on to capture the Grade I BC Classic, Pegasus World Cup and Group I Dubai World Cup.

During Arrogate’s 11-race career, of his 65 SoCal works, just three were listed as breezing.

What about going back to Baffert’s first two Kentucky Derby winners, Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998?

Of Silver Charm’s 36 SoCal works before the Kentucky Derby, only one was listed as breezing.

Of Real Quiet’s 28 SoCal works prior to the Kentucky Derby, three were listed as breezing.

GOSDEN WINS OPULENT SAUDI CUP

John Gosden, who trained Eclipse Award winners Bates Motel and Royal Heroine in the first half of the 1980s when a SoCal conditioner, now is widely recognized as one of the best horsemen in the world, perhaps even the best.

I did not pick the winner of last Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup, the richest horse race on the planet. My choice, Knicks Go, finished fourth. The horse I picked second, Charlatan, did finish second in what was a fine effort in defeat.

The horse I picked third, Mishriff, did win the Saudi Cup. This was what I wrote: “Watch out for Mishriff. He’s got class (winner of the Group I French Derby on turf last year), a great trainer (John Gosden) and has run well on dirt at King Abdulaziz Racecourse (second in last year’s Saudi Derby).”

Watch out, indeed. Mischriff won at odds of 19-1.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

I also wrote this last week: “Depending on what happens this Saturday, Knicks Go’s reign at the top of the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll could be short-lived. If Knicks Go gets beat in the Saudi Cup, he no doubt will drop out of the No. 1 spot in next week’s poll.”

And that’s exactly what happened. Saudi Cup runner-up Charlatan moved to the top of the Top Thoroughbred Poll this week.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 353 Charlatan (25)
2. 288 Knicks Go (1)
3. 265 Maxfield (5)
4. 264 Monomoy Girl (6)
5. 160 Swiss Skydiver
5. 156 Colonel Liam
7. 93 Gamine
8. 92 Jesus’ Team
9. 73 Channel Maker
9. 55 Whitmore

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 345 Essential Quality (26)
2. 295 Life Is Good (5)
3. 238 Mandaloun (4)
3. 225 Greatest Honour (1)
5. 188 Medina Spirit
6. 165 Caddo River (1)
7. 101 Concert Tour
8. 81 Keepmeinmind
9. 70 Jackie’s Warrior
10 65 Risk Taking

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Southwest, Fountain of Youth Analysis & BTH Finale

February 25, 2021 | By Johnny D

Two major 3-year-old races, the twice-postponed Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, promise to alter top rungs of the Kentucky Derby points standings. The former race is worth 10-4-2-1 points, respectively, to the top four finishers and the latter rewards a hefty 50-20-10-5 points. Below is horse-by-horse analysis of each race plus a suggested wager.

First, let’s talk Beat the Host: Greg Peterson did some standings altering himself as he posted a season-high weekly earnings total of $273, well above the previous mark of $185.50 posted by Craig Yoshino Jan. 13. Peterson’s monster score moved him into third place overall in the cumulative earnings race ($514), behind Steven Cziguth and Maria Cimino at $555.50 and $527.50, respectively. Price horses were plentiful last week as both second and third place finishers Cziguth ($230.50) and Christopher Skotz ($221.50) also topped Yoshino’s previous weekly high total. Peterson, Cziguth and Skotz earned $1,000, $750 and $250, respectively, in weekly prizes.

Saturday is your last chance to qualify for the $15,000 Beat the Host Championship on March 13 by defeating NBC Sports analyst and former Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship winner Eddie Olcyzk. Registration is free and players must make single, ‘live’ $5 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 mandatory races. $2,000 in weekly prizes also is on the line.

OAKLAWN PARK // $750,000 GRADE 3 SOUTHWEST STAKES
Race 10 // 5:58PM ET
10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby Points

1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (COX/SAEZ) - 6/5

They say you have to knock out the reining champ before you get to wear the crown. If true, that means someone will need to knock off Essential Quality in here. Unbeaten in 3 starts at 2, he won the Eclipse Award as the nation’s top freshman male by defeating #4 Jackie’s Warrior and 12 others in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile. A hot early pace may have aided his closing charge that day but he has been closer to the pace before while winning the Gr. 1 Breeders Futurity. Both of those Grade 1 races were at Keeneland around two turns. He hasn’t raced since that November victory but has worked every 6-7 days at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox continues his winning ways stateside in 2021, will Essential Quality do likewise? It’s always interesting to see how horses develop in sophomore seasons because there’s always a question about if they’ll effectively make that huge step from 2 to 3. If you’re interested in wagering against a champion who hasn’t been in the ring in a while that may or may not have improved his game, the twice-delayed Gr. 3 Southwest is your cup of tea. Win Contender.

2. SAFFA'S DAY (ASMUSSEN/SANTANA JR.) - 15/1

This son of Carpe Diem has two maiden wins to his credit. One came in his initial voyage in October, but he later was disqualified from that victory. A pair of stakes tries came in his next two starts. He was sixth in the Nyquist Stakes at Keeneland in November and a well-beaten fourth in the Springboard Mile at Remington in December. That latter effort should have earned him points toward a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but he raced with Lasix and that’s not allowed this season in races awarding Derby points. Saffa’s Day finally earned and kept a diploma following a maiden win last out at Oaklawn Park in January. He’s a longshot in here off that maiden tally. Pass.

3. LAST SAMURAI (STEWART/COURT) - 20/1

This Malibu Moon colt won a 7-furlong maiden race at Churchill in Sept. Wrapped around that effort are a pair of poor outings. This guy would need to turn his ship around in a hurry to have a say about the outcome of this in this race. Pass.

4. JACKIE'S WARRIOR (ASMUSSEN/ROSARIO) - 9/5

Like 2-year-old champ #1 Essential Quality, Jackie’s Warrior hasn’t started since the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile where he was fourth as the odds-on choice. That was his fifth 2-year-old start, his first around two turns and, most critically, his first loss. The defeat figuratively stole the Juvenile Eclipse Award right from between Jackie’s Warrior’s hooves. Heading into the BC Juvenile not only was this colt unbeaten; he had never been headed at any call. It was a hot early pace that afternoon and Jackie’s Warrior stalked perfectly, made the lead in the stretch and fell apart late. Was it the two turns that caused his downfall? Or, was he tuckered out from a perfect 4-race win streak that began in June at Churchill and ended in November at Keeneland? He has trained well for this race at Fair Grounds—every 6-7 days for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, who bats 20% off 61-180 days layoff, according to Daily Racing Form stats. This son of Maclean’s Music appears to be the only true speed in this race. That’s an advantage over #1 Essential Quality. Has Jackie’s Warrior improved since November and can he negotiate a mile and one-sixteenth around two turns as effectively as he handled shorter distances and one turn in his first four wins? Big question, but if the answer is ‘yes,’ he wins. Win Contender.

#5 SANTA CRUISER (DESORMEAUX/ERAMIA) - 12/1

This fellow ought to be fit. He raced Feb. 13 in the Gr. 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds and barely picked up his hooves. He was a big price, but some gave him a puncher’s chance that afternoon off a troubled, late-running, well-beaten fourth placing in the Gr. 3 Lecomte Stakes. Other than the fact that he should be more fit than some of his foes, there’s not much to recommend this guy for prime finish positions. Bottoms of Tris and Supers.

6. WOODHOUSE (TROUT/CABRERA) - 15/1

Got to admit he’s fit. He last raced Feb. 11 when third in a muddy mile and one-sixteenth allowance race at Oaklawn Park. That followed a December maiden win at Remington going one mile. Woodhouse was nearly 17-1 in the allowance race and lost by only one length. He’s got a late-running style and that along with fitness could find him rounding out the bottom legs of exotics. Bottoms of Tris and Supers.

7. SPEILBERG (BAFFERT/GARCIA) - 6/1

This son of Union Rags seems a cut below the usual Baffert-trained Oaklawn Park monsters. Perhaps Frankenstein will show up here for the Gr. 2 Rebel or Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby. This colt’s won 2 of 7 starts—a Del Mar maiden and the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Derby. Last out he finished fourth in the Gr. 3 Robert Lewis, beaten more than 11 lengths. In his final work for this race, he was outworked to the wire while inside fellow Baffert 3-year-old Freedom Fighter, second to the Baffert-trained Concert Tour in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. Baffert is the only trainer with such incredible depth in the sophomore division, but this guy is not a member of the trainer’s ‘A’ team. Exotics Only.

BOTTOM LINE

It’s pretty much a guessing game between dual Gr. 1 winners 6-5 favorite #1 Essential Quality and 9-5 second choice #4 Jackie’s Warrior. Both are coming off layoffs, have trained forwardly and are conditioned by guys who are solid at having horses ready to fire off the bench. A slight edge goes to #4 Jackie’s Warrior based on his early speed advantage. There doesn’t seem to be too much of that in this race. #7 Spielberg may be closest to #4 Jackie’s Warrior early and he might hang around for a piece. Overall, let’s give the edge to #4 Jackie’s Warrior in a race that really doesn’t inspire much wagering interest.


GULFSTREAM PARK // $300,000 GRADE 2 FASIG-TIPTON FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES
Race 14 // 6:10PM ET
50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby Points

1. DRAIN THE CLOCK (JOSEPH JR./ZAYAS) - 5/1

This son of Maclean’s Music has won 4 of 5 starts—all sprints—and had a legit excuse for his only defeat when an iron broke and he lost the rider. Last out at Gulfstream, he comfortably won the Gr. 3 Swale Stakes by more than 6 lengths. He’s got speed, the rail and some talent. That combination makes him dangerous. Can he effectively negotiate two turns? Who knows? At the finish of the Swale he certainly looked as if he could easily go around again. He’s 3 for 3 at Gulfstream, too. Drain the Clock also hasn’t missed a beat since beginning his career for 21% trainer Saffie Joseph. Jockey Edgard Zayas is a 28% winner when riding for Joseph. The colt’s 5 career starts have come once-a-month since September and his Beyer Speed figures have improved in each start, except for the time when he lost the rider. Lots to like. Win Contender.

2. PRIME FACTOR (PLETCHER/ORTIZ JR.) - 5/1

Trainer Todd Pletcher hits at 24% and jockey Irad Ortiz wins at 27% this season at Gulfstream. Together they’re batting an amazing 33%. Those stats alone make Prime Factor somewhat of a threat in here. He’s only raced twice—a romping nearly 9 length maiden win first out and a well-beaten third in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull behind #8 Greatest Honour. This guy was the GR. 3 Holy Bull favorite who stalked the early pace before coming up short in the lane. Can that effort be forgiven? Sure, it can. But for what reason? The colt raced 3-wide the whole way, but the pace wasn’t very demanding, and he had nothing in the lane. It’s always a bad idea to exclude a Pletcher/Ortiz runner from a Gulfstream wager but that last race was pretty disappointing. Exotics Only.

3. SOSOSUBTLE (DE LA CERDA/LOPEZ) - 20/1

This gelding won a state-bred maiden mile race at Gulfstream by more than 4 lengths at 18-1 last out. That was a dirt start after a failed turf try first out. He would be a big surprise in here. Pass.

4. FIRE AT WILL (MAKER/CARMOUCHE) - 7/2

Winner of the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile Turf at 30-1, this Declaration of War colt will be making his first start since November and his first over what should be a fast dirt track. He’s got 3 wins in 4 starts—2 on turf and 1 over just 3 foes in the off-the-turf With Anticipation over a sloppy track at Saratoga. The Mike Maker-trained colt also won the Gr. 2 Pilgrim at Belmont on turf. Can he shift his sparkling turf talent to the main track? As a rule, we believe that nearly all horses favor one surface over the other. It’s rare to find an animal that is equally effective on turf and dirt. It happens but it’s rare. Based on that, we’ll go against Fire At Will in here and consider him more strongly when he returns to turf. Pass.

5. JIRAFALES (DELGADO/CASTELLANO) - 30/1

Was soundly defeated last out in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull at 32-1. Pass.

6. KING'S OVATION (ROMANS/LANERIE) - 15/1

Second by more than 6 lengths to Drain the Clock last out in the Gr. 3 Swale, the Not This Time colt will try two turns for the first time. He has a sparkling :59 4/5 best-of-42 workout on his resume for this. Still, he’ll need to really pull a rabbit out of the hat to have a say in this outcome. Pass.

7. TARANTINO (BRISSET/GAFFLAIONE) - 8/1

Here’s another runner that’s had some turf success and was able to finish second to #8 Greatest Honour in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull on dirt. At 2, he broke maiden and was second by a nose in the Zuma Beach--both on Del Mar and Santa Anita turf, respectively. In December, he won an allowance grass race at Gulfstream. In the Gr. 3 Holy Bull he forced the early pace and was able to finish evenly. He has improved Beyer Speed Figures in each race for trainer Rodolphe Brisset and that’s always a good sign for a 3-year-old. He’ll probably be stalking the pace again in here but it’s asking a lot of this son of Pioneerof the Nile to improve too much on his last try at nearly 27-1. Exotics Only.

8. GREATEST HONOUR (MCGAUGHEY/J. ORTIZ) - 9/5

This son of Tapit looked sensational winning the Gr. 3 Holy Bull Stakes last out at Gulfstream. Trainer Shug McGaughey has traversed this Gulfstream sophomore path before and was successful negotiating it with Kentucky Derby winner Orb in 2013. Greatest Honour seems to have similar talent to Orb, including a strong finishing kick. It’s not unreasonable to think that this colt could follow in Orb’s Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby-winning hoofprints. Greatest Honour races from off the pace and that’s not the best place to come from going a mile and one-sixteenth at Gulfstream Park, but he appears to be better than these foes. Most Probable Winner.

9. TIZ TACT TOE (HESS JR./MARAGH) - 30/1

This gelding was claimed for $50k last out by trainer Bob Hess. Connections look to parlay that expenditure into a quick buck in the Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth. This guy hasn’t won a race yet and switches to dirt for the first time so a win in here would be gigantic upset. Pass.

10. PAPETU (SANO/ALVARADO) - 15/1

This son of Dialed In was a respectable 5-1 odds in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull and finished a respectable fourth. Unfortunately, he was more than 10 lengths behind winner #8 Greatest Honour. Papetu was second in the Mucho Macho Man just before the Holy Bull, explaining the Holy Bull mutuel attention. He has 2 five and one-half furlong wins to his credit and a pair of drubbings in the Gr. 2 Saratoga Special and Gr. 1 Hopeful at Saratoga on his 2-year-old resume. Pass.


BOTTOM LINE

#8 Greatest Honour looks like the real deal. It took him 4 starts to break maiden and that’s a bit unusual for a really good horse, but his Beyer Speed Figures have improved with each start—a great sign. Trainer Shug McGaughey doesn’t rush his horses and this guy is a great example of how the Hall-of-Famer works his magic.

#1 Drain the Clock is most dangerous. He’s got the rail, speed and talent. It will be interesting to see if anyone attempts to run with him early. #2 Prime Factor probably will stalk the pace along with #7 Tarantino. #10 Papetu probably will want to go early from the 10 hole. Still, there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of early speed other than #1 Drain the Clock.

A lack of early speed favors #1 Drain the Clock and hurts #8 Greatest Honour. A 1-2 finish, in either order, seems the most logical outcome.

$20 EXACTA ($20)

#8 Greatest Honour
#1 Drain the Clock

$10 EXACTA ($10)

#1 Drain the Clock
#8 Greatest Honour

Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

February 27, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 10-race card ready to go with the 0.20 Early Pick 5 kicking off the night. The sequence has a $100,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Last night, except for Race 8, winners were on the lead or close to it at the top of the lane. James MacDonald and Bob McClure led the drivers with two pictures each. All ten races were won by different conditioners.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

4-Mister Magic (3-1)-Winner of 4 straight before the stoppage in December came off the bench hot and took another picture last week. Back in versus some of the same for the 2nd start for new barn and looks like a threat again.
5-All Wrapped Up (7/2)-Comes off a bumpy trip versus better and should appreciate the company. Lightly raced last year and has had issues but is a player if dialed on high tonight.
10-ImThe Muscle (9/2)-Dropped and popped last week in the 1st start after the halt. Needs to get a break or two from this post but Roy can provide the right trip and should be a square price.

Race 2

1-Evenwood Sonofagun (5/2)-Comes off a 1st over tussle last week and faded down the lane. Can race close to the top of the stack with this post and has beaten much better in the past. Should be tighter tonight and in the hunt at the wire.
3-Traceur Hanover (3-1)-Bumps up a couple of notches after going gate to wire last week from the 7-hole. This is a tougher task but will use this veteran with a start under his belt. Does have the ability for a repeat win and should be forwardly placed.

Race 3

1-Beyond Better (3-1)-Comes off a big qualifier on an off track and McClure takes a spin here. Best to respect in 1st start back and can get into striking range at the top of the lane.
5-Captain Video (4-1)-Steps-up but comes off an impressive win last week as the chalk off a tough journey. Should be tighter, the trip could be better and so might the price.
6-Talbot Romeo (7/2)-Lightly raced late bloomer has won 8 of 12 lifetime and 5 of 8 at Wbsb. Romeo likes to win and best to not overlook in a very tough race.

Race 4

1-Aintnobettor A (10-1)-Looking for a nice price and if it gets a decent early seat McNair could use one big brush to roll by near the wire.
3-Real Willey (3-1)-Dropped to a soft spot last week and won convincingly. Willy doesn't take as many pictures these days but has battled better than this. Filion can work a sweet trip from this post and a repeat win shouldn't be a surprise.
6-Torrin Hanover (5/2)-Has raced from the back in the last 2 starts versus better. This is a spot for a more aggressive steer, loses Filion but Young can put into play. Should like the company, could take a picture with a better start and a good steer.

Race 5

4-Hello Love (4-1)-In first start back, left from post 7 and stayed inside to cash a 2nd place check while finishing behind #5.
Will look for more this week with the better post draw even though this crew is tougher. Could be battling for the top of the ticket at a fair price.
6-Kendall Seelster (3-1)-Faces better in 2nd start off the bench and was flying late last time pacing the back half in 54.4. Just missed catching a determined winner and could be even better this week. McClure is back again and that won't hurt.

0.20 Early Pick 5

4,5,10/1,3/1,5,6/1,3,6/4,6
Total Bet=$21.60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 2/27/21

February 27, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s National Prime Plays

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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View Fountain of Youth S.-G2 Video Analysis

View Southwest Stakes Video Analysis

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Gulfstream Park – Fifth Race – Post time: 1:24 ET
3-Full Court Press (8-1)

The W. Mott-trained colt was given a run last month in his recent debut – a monster race taken by runaway winner Prevalence - and with that effort under his belt he’ll get serious today in this one turn mile maiden affair for 3-year-olds. The son of Dialed In was within range to the head of the lane but wasn’t knocked about while keeping to his task and winding up fourth, beaten nearly 16 lengths. He’s a much better colt than that line will show and today gets his chance to spring an upset at 8-1 on the morning line in a race that doesn’t offer nearly the amount of early speed he was forced to deal with first time out.

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Gulfstream Park – Sixth Race – Post time: 1:53 ET
2-Annex (3-1)

Was a visually pleasing debut winner over this turf course last month, rallying wide and storming home with an impressive turn of foot to earn a huge speed figure while providing promise of bigger and better things to come. The son of Constitution accomplished the win despite appearing a bit green, so with that race under his belt we’re expecting an even better performance in today’s Palm Beach Stakes over a middle distance for 3-year-olds. Drawn nicely inside and listed at 3-1 on the morning line, the W. Mott-trained colt should be capable of handling the class hike in stride.

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Gulfstream Park– Ninth Race – Post time 3:27 ET
5-Fearless (9/2)

Launches a comeback for T. Pletcher (26%, strong flat-bet profit with this angle) in a contentious edition of the Gulfstream Park Mile-G2, but because he won his debut we know he can fire fresh and his recent workouts indicate this classy gelding is fit and ready for a huge run. The son of Ghostzapper really turn it on from the quarter pole to the wire, so with good racing luck and little help up, front he can tag the speed. He’s a win play and strong rolling exotic key at or near his morning line of 9/2.
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Gulfstream Park – Twelfth Race – Post time: 5:04 ET
5-Millefeuille (5-1)

Returns to the one-turn mile distance of her maiden win last fall and has looked extremely sharp in the a.m. while preparing for her sophomore debut in this year’s edition of the Davona Dale S.-G2. Narrowly missing when last seen in the Demoiselle S.-G2 in early December, the daughter of Curlin is strong on speed figures and has the good stalking style that makes her ideally suited for this elongated one-turn trip. From a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners and switching to Johnny V., she’ll offer excellent value at or near her morning line of 5-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/27/21

February 27, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click here to view today’s Daily Workout Report

Click here to View Fountain of Youth S.-G2 Video Analysis

Click here to View Southwest Stakes-G3 Video Analysis



RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Hockey Dad; 5-Big Talker

Forecast: Hockey Dad, back on short rest (seven days), stretches out for the first time and returning to what we believe is his best surface (grass), rates top billing in this six-runner affair confined to state-bred competition. The son of Nyquist is solid in the speed figure department and projects to settle in a stalking, second-flight early position and then have every chance to tag the leaders when the pressure is turned on. Big Talker shortens up a furlong after graduating with a good late kick in part due to a highly-favorable race shape in a modest Cal-bred affair earlier this month. He’ll be running on late again but will need considerable help up front to compliment his one-paced grinding style. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Hockey Dad.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1=Synthesis; 4-Pubilius Syrus

Forecast: Pubilius Syrus was scratched Feb. 5 and didn’t work until nine days later, so we’ll assume he came up with some type of physical problem, but the veteran son of Candy Ride appears to have gotten over what it may have been and returns protected in this starter’s allowance main track miler that appears to be a proper spot to produce an extension of his four race winning streak. Perfect in two career outings over the Santa Anita main track, the V. Cerin-trained six-year-old likes to lag early and blast home, and in a field with just five starters he’ll not likely encounter any traffic issues along the way. Additionally, the pace scenario projects to be favorable. Synthesis, a distant third to our top pick two runs back and then beaten in a photo in his most recent start, goes for new trainer J. Mullins following a $32,000 claim and could improve enough to pose a threat. He’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two for protection, but the main push goes to Pubilius Cyrus.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-That’s Amare; 3-Kalon

Forecast: That’s Amare, an excellent runner-up in her debut last summer in a turf sprint at Del Mar, returns for P. D’Amato (outstanding stats with layoff runners) and has trained like she’s fit and ready for this six furlong maiden affair on grass for fillies and mares. The daughter of Unusual Heat should draft into a stalking, ground-saving position and then exert her superiority when asked. She’s 8/5 on the morning line but probably will go lower. Kalon, third in her only start in November, has done some solid recent work in the a.m. for J. Sadler, attracts the barn’s “go to” rider U. Rispoli, and will be running on late. Strong preference on top goes to That’s Amare but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Studly Perfection; 6-Impression

Forecast: Impression was well below his best form when a no-threat fifth in a slightly stronger event earlier this month but in a weak $10,000 claiming miler the son of Smart Strike should have every opportunity to get back on the beam. First or second in 13 or 31 career starts, the veteran gelding always has been fairly dependable, so we’ll expect him to bounce back. Studly Perfection, making his second off a layoff and vanning down from Golden Gate Fields, does his best work on the front end so we’ll expect he’ll be sent from the bell in an attempt to be the controlling speed. First or second in five of seven career starts over the local main track, the son of Majesticperfection has several races on his resume that make him dangerous, so with a recent bullet workout at Golden Gate Fields and at 10-1 on the morning line he’ll be offer a legitimate price chance to our ticket.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Ruthless Racer

Forecast: Ruthless Racer has little to beat in this $20,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies and from her cozy outside draw the P. Miller-trained daughter of Flashback should settle into an easy stalking position and then take control when given her command. She’s back sprinting where she belongs, reunited with “win rider: F. Prat, and seems likely to go lower than her morning line of 6/5. She’s a logical no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Mahaamel; 8-El Joy; 9-Got Curly

Forecast: Let’s go with a trio of 3-year-olds dropping from the straight maiden ranks into a high-priced maiden claimer in this nine furlong turf affair that came up light in quality. Mahaamel closed a gap without really posing a threat in his U.S. debut in a race he most likely needed, and with that prep under his belt the J. Mullins-trained gelding should greatly appreciate not only the softer assignment but also the stretch out from six furlongs to a mile and one-eighth. With T. Baze riding him back, the Irish import may be capable of producing the last run. Got Curley removes blinkers (love that angle), shows up for a tag after five middling performances when facing straight maiden foes, and has produced consistent speed figures that make him a major player at this level. At 4-1 on the morning line, he’s a “must use.” El Joy was overmatched vs. Du Jour and other nice prospects last time out but his two previous maiden claiming outings were quite solid. He makes a major jockey change to U. Rispoli and has the closing style that should be enhanced by today’s longer distance.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Handr’sdream

Forecast: Handr’sdream was claimed for $30,000 out of her debut at Los Alamitos in December and makes her first start for new trainer P. Miller (26% with a strong ROI with this angle) for the same price in a rather shallow race for 3-year-olds. The son of Palace Malice flashed good speed before weakening to wind up fifth in that race but gains Lasix and is a first time gelding so considerable improvement is likely. With F. Prat picking up the mount, there will be no price to be found (he’s 6/5 on the morning line) so let’s make him a no value, short price, rolling exotic single in a race that’s we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:26 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Rock Your World

Forecast: Rock Your World won like a future star in his debut sprinting on grass earlier this meeting while earning a huge speed figure, and today stretches out while advancing into stakes competition in this year’s edition of the Pasadena Stakes for 3-year-oids. Today’s two-turn trip won’t be an issue at all, so we’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained colt to draft into an early stalking position and then move quickly whenever he’s given his cue. We’ll take his morning line of 2-1 if we can get it and also make the son of Candy Ride a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:57 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Threearchbaymedia; 3-Malakai Moxie; 8-Brazilian Summer

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the finale, a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Malakai Moxie was worn down late at 22-1 in a slightly softer affair here last month but has trained well since and should improve enough to stick it out to the end. Additionally, this will be his second off a layoff in a projected pace flow that should allow him to be the controlling speed. Threearchbaymafia, third with a wide trip vs. similar last time out, needs a bit of help in the speed figure department to worry our top pick, but with just four career starts the V. Cerin-trained son of Will Take Charge certainly has room for improvement. The barn’s “go to” rider U. Rispoli stays aboard. Brazilian Summer, away for more than a year but training quite well for his return, is waiver protected by new trainer V. Garcia and could fire a big shot off the bench. He’s run well over this track in the past and probably is a bit better than his 12-1 morning line gives him credit for.
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 Mongolian Ford Grinding effort and a wide trip in the debut run, but he'll return with blinkers today, a move the barn has used to land a couple winners from limited starters. Pressing trip at a price?
#5 Capo Mafioso Form is darkened by dirt and route tries, but the two turf sprints were pretty solid, and he's a finishing threat with these.
#4 Chipper Drops in for a tag for the first time, and is only turf sprint was one of the better efforts of his career. He's in the mix here.
Race Summary Mongolian Ford draws well to show a bit of tactical, blinkered pace, and he probably has some room to move forward at a nice number here.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Blackout Went too fast when racing long last out, and he's one of the most reliable finishers in this bunch on the cutback. Lots of speed to set up a spying rally.
#2 Strike It Lucky He should benefit from a quick expected pace, and he'll get overlooked for a cold team. There are a couple of turf sprint efforts back there that might be enough to land a piece.
#9 Castle Tough read. He's coming off an 11-month break, and he's dropping in class below anything he's seen of late, but his baseline effort might be good enough if he's still got it in him.
Race Summary Blackout should get a great trip while tracking a handful of speedy types, and he's route pace cutting back -- always a big danger at a trip like this.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 Malibu Hannah She ran better without blinkers in her first two races, so losing the hood might work in her favor here. She has never been in this easy, and something like one of her first two races might be good enough to handle these.
#2 Whistler's Style She was a big price when fading late after setting the pace last out, and she should be in the mix from the start again on the drop.
#8 Avisse She has burned a bit of money in those last two, but the blinkers come off for the new team, and she has run well without them in the past.
Race Summary Malibu Hannah gets into the easiest spot she has seen, and she has caught a couple of pretty tough winners in some of her recent starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 FINAL JUSTICE Caught in traffic, got up for second behind runaway fave.
#5 ARQUE HANOVER Returns from Meadowlands, will be running late.
#1 JERRYTONE Failed as the 1-to-9 favorite in easier condition.
Race Summary Final Justice, trapped 4-deep on the rail through the opening half mile, ran into a traffic jam while making a move on the final turn, then swung 4-wide and finished second. Play a 2/1,5/ALL trifecta.

Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 ALWAYS AND AGAIN Speed, rail, proven at this level, switches pilots.
#5 CENTURY FURY Plays to a steady beat, projects ideal trip from off pace.
#8 ROCKIN THE ACES Seeks third victory this month from post 8.
Race Summary Always And Again blew clear stretch leads in 3 of his last 6 starts, but he dueled on the inside through a :27.1 third quarter and drew off impressively in the stretch two starts ago at this level. He will face front-end pressure but could be up to the winning task.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 ROCKME ROLLME Tries to pick up where he left off in six-figure season, gets right set-up.
#4 BETTER BE DONNA N Mare got the jump on even-money fave and won in the same spot.
#1 EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN Dueled and gave way in seasonal debut, won 6 of 15 last year.
Race Summary Rockme Rollme returns in a perfect spot after a $116k season as a 4-year-old. He was last seen rallying into photo-finish view from posts 8 and 9 and will have plenty of pace to run at tonight. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Eye of a Jedi Has been a consistent closer and suffered a narrow loss to Performer in the G3 Fred Hooper. He gave way three pounds to Performer in this one and gets two for this, making it a five-pound swing. Hasn't run a bad one in more than a year and he pay off sizable dividends are having been a $1.5k yearling. He's won $285k to date and can tack on some more here for owner-trainer Budhoo.
#4 Performer Engages Eye of a Jedi in the stretch and wore down that one in the final strides; he's six of eight in his career and can be expected to put up another good fight.
#2 Tax Retreated after chasing fast pacesetters in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invite and will fight it out on this step down. Was a convincing winner of the G3 Harlan's Holiday and will be in the mix in his return for this.
Race Summary Eye of a Jedi is only getting better with age and has been a local force since last May. He's a gamer and can be expected to dig in here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#1 Wholebodemeister Made a good move for third last out in the G3 Forward Gal and should appreciate the added furlong; faces her toughest test but she should get a good trip and is a threat for an upset.
#3 Vequist G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner lost a maiden race in her debut at Parx made a terrific recovery in the G1 Spinaway. Will be a short price and gets her fourth different jockey in her fifth career start.
#2 Lady Traveler Came off the bench for a good second in the G3 Forward Gal and is suited for the mile distance; big player.
Race Summary Wholebodemeister comes off a good effort in the Forward Gal and can be within range throughout; can improve off her latest and is a legit player.

Gulfstream Park - Race #14
Picks Notes
#1 Drain the Clock Hard to knock this one as he's four of five (only loss when he lost his rider) and is set to make the pace going long. Was dominating in the Limehouse and G3 Swale here and will dig in as he stretches out.
#8 Greatest Honour Probable favorite got an ideal trip as he swept past faltering pacesetters late in the G3 Holy Bull here. Hasn't run a bad one in five trips and has settled into being a good two-turn horse.
#2 Prime Factor Was a well-beaten third behind Greatest Honour in the Holy Bull, but that was just his second start. Highly regarded and could improve.
Race Summary Drain the Clock has been a dominant sprinter and from his rail position here will be the one to catch. Could eventually be limited by longer distances than this, but for today he has nice shine to him and should be tough to reel in.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, February 27

Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas (14-6, 8-5)
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #148
— Experience: #118
— Continuity: #4
— Texas won three of last four games, after a 1-4 skid.
— Longhorns won three of four Big X road games.
— Opponents are shooting 44.6% inside arc (#20)

Texas Tech (14-8, 6-7)
— ranked #25 by KenPom
— Tempo: #294
— Experience: #275
— Continuity: #244
— Tech lost its last three games, scoring 67 ppg.
— Red Raiders are forcing turnovers 24% of time (#9)
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Tech is shooting 48.1% inside arc (#240)

— Tech won 79-77 in Austin January 13; they were down 10 with 11:53 left.
— Red Raiders won six of last seven series games.
— Texas lost four of last five visits to Lubbock (won 68-58 LY)

Michigan @ Indiana
Michigan (17-1, 12-1)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #219
— Experience: #57
— Continuity: #151
— Michigan won its last six games, three by 17+ points.
— Wolverines’ only loss was 73-57 at Minnesota on January 16.
— Michigan has #5 eFG% defense in country.

Indiana (12-11, 7-9)
— ranked #35 by KenPom
— Tempo: #285
— Experience: #283
— Continuity: #82
— Indiana lost three of last four games overall, four of last six at home.
— Hoosiers get 21.9% of their points on foul line (#29), but make only 66.5% on charity stripe (#297).
— To this point in season, Indiana has played schedule #5.

— Michigan won last seven series games.
— Wolverines won last three visits here, by 3-12-23 points.

Illinois @ Wisconsin
Illinois (17-6, 13-4)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #88
— Experience: #220
— Continuity: #43
— Illini star Dosunmu (broken nose) is out here.
— Illinois won won eight of its last nine games.
— Illini is a top 30 rebounding team in country.

Wisconsin (17-6, 13-4)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #88
— Experience: #220
— Continuity: #43
— Badgers are 4-5 SU in their last nine games, 1-3 in last four at home.
— Wisconsin gets 36.3% of their points on arc (#53), shooting 35.9% (#76)
— Badgers are shooting only 46.7% inside arc (#280)

— Badgers lost 75-60 at Illinois February 6.
— Illinois won last two series games, after losing the previous 15.

VCU @ Davidson
VCU (17-5, 10-3)
— ranked #44 by KenPom
— Tempo: #110
— Experience: #306
— Continuity: #281
— VCU won seven of its last eight games overall.
— Rams are forcing turnovers 24.3% of time (#6)
— VCU has #16 eFG% defense in country.

Davidson (11-7, 6-4)
— ranked #72 by KenPom
— Tempo: #350
— Experience: #182
— Continuity: #39
— Davidson lost its last two games, scoring 58-53 vs St Bonaventure.
— Wildcats are shooting 57.7% inside arc (#8)
— Davidson is getting 39.5% of its points on arc (#18)

— Davidson won four of last six series games.
— Rams lost last three visits here, by 4-7-10 points.

LSU @ Arkansas
LSU (14-7, 9-5)
— ranked #29 by KenPom
— Tempo: #67
— Experience: #326
— Continuity: #135
— LSU won three of its last four games, is 2-3 in last five on road.
— Tigers are #324 in country on defensive boards.
— LSU is shooting 54.8% inside arc (#28)

Arkansas (18-5, 10-4)
— ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #30
— Experience: #234
— Continuity: #339
— Arkansas won five in row, eight of last nine games.
— Razorbacks won their last six home games.
— Last four games, Arkansas scored 80.8 ppg.

— Arkansas lost 92-76 at LSU January 13.
— LSU won four of last six series games.
— Bayou Bengals lost four of last five visits to Arkansas.

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (15-6, 8-6)
— ranked #39 by KenPom
— Tempo: #53
— Experience: #323
— Continuity: #286
— Cowboys won last three games, giving up 62.3 ppg.
— State has #26 eFG% defense in country.
— Cowboys are turning ball over 21.0% of time (#281)

Oklahoma (14-6, 9-5)
— ranked #31 by KenPom
— Tempo: #230
— Experience: #67
— Continuity: #56
— Sooners won eight of last ten games overall, six in row at home.
— Opponents are shooting 44.4% inside arc (#17)
— In last four losses, Oklahoma scored only 55.8 ppg.

— Oklahoma won three of last four series games.
— Cowboys lost last three visits to Norman, by 20-10-13 points.

Florida State @ North Carolina
Florida State (14-3, 10-2)
— ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #113
— Experience: #95
— Continuity: #100
— Seminoles won four in row, nine of last ten games.
— FSU is grabbing 35.9% of its missed shots (#13)
— Seminoles are a deep team (#20 in bench minutes)

North Carolina (14-8, 8-5)
— ranked #36 by KenPom
— Tempo: #49
— Experience: #325
— Continuity: #154
— Tar Heels split their last six games.
— UNC is grabbing 39.5% of its missed shots (#2)
— Carolina has #243 eFG%, is turning ball over 20.3% of time (#239)

— Tar Heels lost 82-75 in Tallahassee January 16.
— Seminoles won three of last four series games.
— Florida State lost its last five visits to the Deandome.

Florida @ Kentucky
Florida (12-6, 8-5)
— ranked #27 by KenPom
— Tempo: #139
— Experience: #245
— Continuity: #157
— Florida won six of its last eight games.
— Gators have #61 eFG% defense in country.
— Florida is turning ball over 20% of the time (#226)

Kentucky (8-13, 7-7)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #199
— Experience: #340
— Continuity: #343
— Kentucky won last three games, after a 1-7 skid.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Wildcats have #299 eFG%, but their eFG% defense is #27.
— Last four games, Kentucky scored 78.5 ppg.

— Kentucky won 76-58 in Gainesville January 9.
— Wildcats won last five series games.
— Florida lost last two visits here, 66-57/65-59.

Boise State @ San Diego State
Boise State (18-5, 14-4)
— ranked #57 by KenPom
— Tempo: #134
— Experience: #68
— Continuity: #246
— Boise won four of last five games; they lost in OT here Thursday.
— Broncos lost four of their last five road games.
— Boise has #64 eFG% in country (52.9% inside arc, #61)

San Diego State (18-4, 12-3)
— ranked #19 by KenPom
— Tempo: #292
— Experience: #15
— Continuity: #146
— Aztecs won last nine games overall, eight in row at home.
— San Diego State forces turnovers 22.9% of time (#20)
— San Diego State is shooting 38.4% on the arc (#14).

— San Diego State blew a 17-point lead, beat Boise by 12 in OT Thursday.
— Aztecs won last five series games.
— Boise lost last four visits to Viejas, by 8-6-18-12 points.

Creighton @ Xavier
Creighton (11-10, 7-5)
— ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #148
— Experience: #39
— Continuity: #20
— Creighton won four in row, 7 of last 8 games.
— Bluejays are shooting 58.3% inside arc (#5)
— Creighton has #31 eFG% defense.

Xavier (12-5, 5-5)
— ranked #62 by KenPom
— Tempo: #142
— Experience: #137
— Continuity: #184
— Xavier lost three of its last four games.
— Opponents are shooting 45.2% inside arc (#26)
— In its last four losses, Xavier allowed 80+ points.

— Xavier lost 66-61 at Creighton December 23.
— Creighton won last three series games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.

Louisville @ Duke
Louisville (12-5, 7-4)
— ranked #48 by KenPom
— Tempo: #281
— Experience: #338
— Continuity: #223
— Louisville lost four of its last seven games.
— Cardinals lost last three road tilts, by 6-4-45 points.
— Louisville gets 57.2% of its points inside arc (#30)

Duke (11-8, 9-6)
— ranked #30 by KenPom
— Tempo: #159
— Experience: #344
— Continuity: #251
— Duke won its last four games, after a 2-7 skid.
— Blue Devils have #39 eFG% in country.
— Opponents are shooting 37.5% on arc (#319)

— Duke lost 70-65 at Louisville January 23.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Cardinals lost two of last three visits to Durham.

Oregon State @ Stanford
Oregon State (12-11, 8-9)
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Tempo: #308
— Experience: #77
— Continuity: #156
— Oregon State lost four of its last six games.
— Beavers are shooting only 45.3% inside arc (#312)
— Oregon State is getting 21.9% of their points on foul line (#30)

Stanford (14-10, 10-8)
— ranked #64 by KenPom
— Tempo: #118
— Experience: #284
— Continuity: #72
— Cardinal lost last two games, one in triple OT, other by 3 points.
— Stanford is 9-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— Cardinal is turning ball over 21% of time (#275).

— Stanford won 81-71 in Corvallis January 4.
— Cardinal won five of last seven series games.
— Teams split last four series games played here.

UCLA @ Colorado
UCLA (17-5, 13-3)
— ranked #39 by KenPom
— Tempo: #333
— Experience: #267
— Continuity: #19
— UCLA won its last four games, giving up 65.3 ppg.
— Bruins are shooting 37% on arc (#44).
— UCLA is #38 team in country on defensive boards.

Colorado (18-7, 12-6)
— ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #259
— Experience: #32
— Continuity: #87
— Colorado won five of its last seven games.
— Last three games, Buffs gave up only 59.7 ppg.
— Colorado is shooting 83.1% on foul line (#1)

— Buffs lost 65-62 in Westwood January 2.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Teams also split last six series games played here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

601SYRACUSE -602 GEORGIA TECH
SYRACUSE is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival in the last 3 seasons.

603TENNESSEE -604 AUBURN
TENNESSEE is 3-10 ATS (-8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

605TEXAS -606 TEXAS TECH
TEXAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

607MICHIGAN -608 INDIANA
MICHIGAN is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

609GEORGETOWN -610 DEPAUL
DEPAUL is 8-20 ATS (-14 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

613MERCER -614 W CAROLINA
W CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games in the last 3 seasons.

615N ILLINOIS -616 E MICHIGAN
N ILLINOIS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.

617C MICHIGAN -618 BALL ST
C MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (11.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.

621MONTANA -622 IDAHO ST
MONTANA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.

623WEBER ST -624 SACRAMENTO ST
WEBER ST is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 in the current season.