Tweet
Re: 1-30-09
John Ryan
Valparaiso Crusaders @ Butler Bulldogs
Pick: Valparaiso Crusaders +17.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Valparaiso as they travel to face Butler slated to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that VALPO will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 41-19 ATS for 68% since 2003. Play against any team that is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15+ games and after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. Butler is 18-1 and they have done it with a methodical prodding offense and stifling defense. However, VALPO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game since 1997. Because of the slow tempo this game will take on rebounds will be below average for VALPO. AiS shows an 88% probability that Valpo will have between 34 and 39 rebounds and in past games where this has occurred Valpo is a solid 19-7 ATS since 1997.
Lakers at Minnesota
Lakers by 7 points based on Ai Simulator estimate.
I have been running very hot of late with 10 and 15* graded plays and this one will be a 5* graded Monster play on the Lakers. Minnesota has played exceptional team basketball in January. They have won 5 of the last 6 and three of them have been on the road against Phoenix, the LA Clippers, and Milwaukee. Entering Wednesday night they will be a pick-em hosting Detroit, a team that is 5 games over 500. I point this out only to show that the public is beginning to back Minnesota in a big way given that the winning ways have been evident for more than a month. They are 11-2 in January and that is amazing.
Enter the best team in the NBA, based on my research and opinion, in the Lakers on Thursday night. The Lakers normally may be prone to taking Minnesota lightly, but given how well Minnesota has played in January they will be prepared and focused to win this game. Reality is that Minnesota is no where close to being just a 5 point dog to these powerful Lakers. The Lakers bench might be able to defeat the Minnesota starters on any given night. The Lakers, when prepared, do not turn the ball over, giving the opposition easy transition opportunities. AiS shows an 856% probability that the Lakers will have 12 or fewer turnovers. Note that Minnesota is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota has run and up tempo style of offense during the winning month, but the Lakers thrive against these one dimensional teams. The Lakers are the only NBA team that can flip a switch and the lock down defense is applied and suffocates an offense that may have been clicking on all cylinders just minutes ago. I will have more detail about this game later this week so be sure to get my podcast for Friday that will further examine this strong opportunity. Lakers are 25-12 ATS against teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the past 2 seasons.
__________________
John Ryan
Valparaiso Crusaders @ Butler Bulldogs
Pick: Valparaiso Crusaders +17.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Valparaiso as they travel to face Butler slated to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that VALPO will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 41-19 ATS for 68% since 2003. Play against any team that is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15+ games and after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. Butler is 18-1 and they have done it with a methodical prodding offense and stifling defense. However, VALPO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game since 1997. Because of the slow tempo this game will take on rebounds will be below average for VALPO. AiS shows an 88% probability that Valpo will have between 34 and 39 rebounds and in past games where this has occurred Valpo is a solid 19-7 ATS since 1997.
Lakers at Minnesota
Lakers by 7 points based on Ai Simulator estimate.
I have been running very hot of late with 10 and 15* graded plays and this one will be a 5* graded Monster play on the Lakers. Minnesota has played exceptional team basketball in January. They have won 5 of the last 6 and three of them have been on the road against Phoenix, the LA Clippers, and Milwaukee. Entering Wednesday night they will be a pick-em hosting Detroit, a team that is 5 games over 500. I point this out only to show that the public is beginning to back Minnesota in a big way given that the winning ways have been evident for more than a month. They are 11-2 in January and that is amazing.
Enter the best team in the NBA, based on my research and opinion, in the Lakers on Thursday night. The Lakers normally may be prone to taking Minnesota lightly, but given how well Minnesota has played in January they will be prepared and focused to win this game. Reality is that Minnesota is no where close to being just a 5 point dog to these powerful Lakers. The Lakers bench might be able to defeat the Minnesota starters on any given night. The Lakers, when prepared, do not turn the ball over, giving the opposition easy transition opportunities. AiS shows an 856% probability that the Lakers will have 12 or fewer turnovers. Note that Minnesota is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota has run and up tempo style of offense during the winning month, but the Lakers thrive against these one dimensional teams. The Lakers are the only NBA team that can flip a switch and the lock down defense is applied and suffocates an offense that may have been clicking on all cylinders just minutes ago. I will have more detail about this game later this week so be sure to get my podcast for Friday that will further examine this strong opportunity. Lakers are 25-12 ATS against teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the past 2 seasons.
__________________
Comment