If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
ASAwins AAC Best of Best 20-6 RUN! 5* Game: (731) Memphis at (732) Houston Date/Time: Mar 7 2021 12:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 5% Play: Houston -9.5 (-115)
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home.
ASAwins CBB Situational SLAM! 22-7! Game: (767) Appalachian State at (768) Coastal Carolina Date/Time: Mar 7 2021 9:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle Play Rating: 4% Play: Coastal Carolina -4.0 (-118)
ASA top play on 4* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina
ASAwins AAC Best of Best 20-6 RUN! 5* Game: (731) Memphis at (732) Houston Date/Time: Mar 7 2021 12:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 5% Play: Houston -9.5 (-115)
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home.
ASAwins CBB Situational SLAM! 22-7! Game: (767) Appalachian State at (768) Coastal Carolina Date/Time: Mar 7 2021 9:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle Play Rating: 4% Play: Coastal Carolina -4.0 (-118)
ASA top play on 4* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina
ASAwins NHL Blowout CRUSHER! 12-0 RUN Game: (33) Washington Capitals at (34) Philadelphia Flyers Date/Time: Mar 7 2021 7:08 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: Philadelphia Flyers -110
ASA TOP PLAY 4* ON Philadelphia Flyers Money Line -105 over Washington at 7 PM ET - The Capitals are off a very physical loss to the Bruins Friday. That 5-1 defeat also saw their most physical player, Tom Wilson, deliver a bad hit on Brandon Carlo of the Bruins and Wilson is now on a 7-game suspension for Washington. That will hurt this team some and they are taking on a Philly team that is in a back to back spot but on their home ice and with Carter Hart between the pipes. Hart has shown a long-term tendency for dominating in his home ice starts so he is absolutely in his comfort zone here. Also, Philadelphia hammered the Capitals 7-4 in the most recent meeting and this Flyers team is, for the most part, healthy again after already dealing with covid issues a few weeks ago. Philadelphia could get Philippe Myers back here as well. Each team does have a couple personnel issues here but the absence of Wilson could hurt the Caps in a back to back physical match-up as these teams don't like each other to say the least. Keep in mind, Carter Hart went 20-3-2 with a 1.63 GAA in his home starts last season and has only 1 regulation loss in 6 decisions on home ice this season. Take the FLYERS
College Basketball(Bob Balfe)
5:00 PM EST
Rotation #762
UNC Greensboro -2.5 over ETSU
East Tennessee State had a great year. This is a team that has a new coach and just about every single player wasn’t on the team last year. UNC Greensboro had a great year and are the top seed in the Southern Conference. What I really like about this team is they were excellent on the road which proves they are an elite program. ETSU had a losing road record. I like the Spartans a little better on the offensive end and on the glass. This is a team that has the same coach for the last decade in Wes Miller and a team that has played together for a few years. Experience and camaraderie mean a whole lot down the stretch in big games. Take UNCG.
Game: (771) UMKC at (772) North Dakota State Date/Time: Mar 7 2021 9:45 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 5% Play: UMKC +6.0 (-110)
My math model only favors North Dakota State by 2.2 points in this game and one of my models actually favors UMKC by 0.2 points. North Dakota State falls into a very negative 27-60 ATS system of mine that invests against certain teams that have gone over the total in four consecutive games versus opponents that have landed under the total in five straight games. UMKC is a profitable 24-11-1 ATS in its last 36 games, including 9-1 ATS in games priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points. UMKC is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games as an underdog, including 12-4 ATS following a loss and 9-1 ATS off a SU and ATS loss.
The Kangaroos are ranked 7th nationally in field goal percentage (50.0) and 39th in three-point field goal percentage (37.34), whereas North Dakota State ranks 150th or worse in those categories. I also like the fact that UMKC is allowing just 62.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 69.6 points per game against a mediocre defense. Grab the points with UMKC and invest with confidence.
Comment