Thursday 3/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (301503) Beijing at (301504) Jilin
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 7AM EST
Play: Total Over 199.5 (+105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Lang

Event: Max Homa
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 8AM EST
Play: Max Homa YES to make the cut
On Draftkings right now, Max Homa is -150 to make the cut, and I love it. Homa has been playing not just good golf, but great golf recently. He got the win 3 tournaments ago, and instead of slowing down he's kept up his elite play. He's made the cut in all 7 tournaments this year, and in 6 of those tournaments he's finished 22nd or better. He's never played this tournament which is why it's only -150, but when a guy is playing this well, I'll keep betting on him until he fades, and he's shown no sign of that.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: The Players Championship Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Joaquin Niemann to Win The Players Championship (+7500)
The Players Championship
Outright Winner FanDuel
Odds are great on guys this week as it’s a very deep field and you can even get 12-1 on DJ where he has been only 6-1 in several of his last starts.
That being said, I’m looking at Joaquin Niemann who has been in the 40-1 range is available at 75-1 this week at FanDuel. Niemann has made the cut in all ten starts this year with seven Top-25’s and two runner-up finishes. He is 9th on Tour in driving distance which really isn’t that important at this Pete Dye design, but it doesn’t hurt, but he is also 13th in GIR which is very important, ranks 11th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and has the 4th best scoring average on Tour this year.
He is a steal for DFS players that need guys to make the weekend, available for $7,700 at DraftKings and $9,800 at FanDuel.
TAKE JOAQUIN NIEMANN +7500

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Sergio Garcia vs Max Homa
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Max Homa (+115)
The Players Championship
Tournament Matchup Offshore
Seems like people forgot about Homa already who is coming off a T7, 1st, T22, T10 run over his last four starts. Nothing in his Tour rankings jumps off the charts to me other than 25th in Scoring, but for a guy that is in as good of form as he is, it’s hard not to want to back him here.
Garcia is a past champion here and he already has a win under his belt as well this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October. But he hasn’t done much since with just one Top-20 finish in seven starts since. He is still a great ball striker, but his Overall Strokes Gained numbers have slowing been falling over the years.
2014 he finished 2nd in Total Strokes Gained
2015 16th
2016 25th
2017 19th
2018 Didn’t play enough rounds to qualify
2019 37th
2020 42nd
2021 67th
Sergio is still good enough to put together solid weeks, but not on the regular anymore and his current form isn’t getting me exciting to back him this week.
TAKE MAX HOMA OVER SERGIO GARCIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (679) Syracuse at (680) Virginia
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Virginia -5.0 (-110)
679 Syracuse Orange vs 680 Virginia Cavaliers -5, 133
Head coach Jim Boeheim and his 3-2 zone have made the Syracuse Orange a tradition-rich basketball program that is known for its tough to crack defense.

Tony Bennett hasn't been drawing up X's and O's as long as coach Jim and when he has the defensive he choreographed hasn't been a zone scheme.

Virginia enters Thursday's Third-Round ACC postseason action the better team on both ends of the court. Despite the recent run and positive form of the Orange the Cavaliers control the glass, the tempo and earn a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference Semifinals. Back Bennett's Boys and lay the five-points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Young Boys at Ajax
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Ajax + Both Teams to Score YES (+180)
UEFA Europa League
It’s been a nice run for the Swiss side Young Boys but it ends here at the hands of Ajax, an experienced side in the European competitions the last few seasons. Ajax continually bring up young stars, win their domestic league, the Eredivisie in Netherlands and make deep runs in the Champions or Europa Leagues including making it to the semifinals of the Champions League just two seasons ago.
Ajax is on a tear right now, unbeaten in 19 straight games in all competitions with 16 wins and just three draws, most of them against similar strength competition to this Young Boys team. But I don’t expect Young Boys to go down without a fight. They are a very solid team in the Swiss Super League and advanced to this round impressively knocking off Bundesliga side Leverkusen in the last round. They are also unbeaten in their last 16 games but I think Ajax will be too much for them here.
The oddsmakers aren’t giving Young Boys too much credit to even score a goal here as their team total is set at 1.0 but shaded to the Under at the current price of -145 as of Monday morning.
While I like Ajax to win this game, instead of just backing them at -155, I like combining that with the Young Boys scoring in this match as Ajax have conceded in 13 of their 19 game unbeaten run and Young Boys have all the firepower to net one.
That market isn’t set yet but will be by either end of Monday or early Tuesday and based on current pricing, I’m expecting it to be at least +200 and I think that’s great value.
TAKE AJAX + BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE YES +180
Line Parameter: 3% good to +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (224421) Arsenal at (224422) Olympiacos
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Olympiacos +0.5 (-110)
I'll take a shot with Olympiacos plus the half goal on Thursday night taking on Arsenal.
Arsenal will no doubt be fully focused ahead of this tie after getting dumped out of last year's competition by Olympiacos, but the Greeks have been solid at home of late.
Olympiacos haven't lost at home since Porto had a 2-0 win there back in December, while Arsenal's road record of late has been extremely patchy, with just one win in five away from the Emirates.
I think Olympiacos can hang in this one and I like them getting a +0.5 goal head start in Greece on Thursday.
Take Olympiacos +0.5 as your free play for Thursday.
PLAY: OLYMPIACOS +0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (224437) Dinamo Zagreb at (224438) Tottenham
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Total Over 2.75 (-117)
Europa League - Dinamo Zagreb at Tottenham
Quick Synopsis: This is a system play based on our metric expectancy that came back at 4.12. This is Leg 1 of the round of 16 and the Spurs attack has looked very good of late with the addition of Gareth Bale to the duo of Kane and Son. Tottenham scored 4 in each of the 2 legs of the previous knockout stage round against Wolfsberger and 4 in each of their past two home games against Burnley and Crystal Palace. We should see some chances here on Thursday that gets us over the total with a Zagreb team also not short on scoring this season in Europa League and League play where they've scored 57 in 23 games.
The play is Over 2.75 (Split line of 2.5 and 3.0) Good to 3.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (1) Washington Capitals at (2) Philadelphia Flyers
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Total Over 6.0 (-110)
2 Washington at Philadelphia
In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find Washington ranked 9th and Philadelphia 13th. In xG/60 the Capitals come in +0.09 and the Flyers -0.04. So both teams are roughly league average.
On the Power Play in G+-/60 Washington ranks 14th and Philadelphia 17th. In xG/60 we find the Capitals +6.10 and the Flyers +5.67.
Looking at the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Capitals rank 11th, while the Flyers are 28th. In xG/60 Washington is -5.33 and Philadelphia -6.87. A sizable edge to the visitor.
With Philadelphia being so poor on the Penalty Kill, you have to think this could be a good scoring opportunity for Washington. Instead of looking at the side, which is priced pretty well. Let’s expect a high scoring contest.
PLAY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (11) Pittsburgh Penguins at (12) Buffalo Sabres
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 11, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Total Under 6.0 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Mar 11 '21, 8:00 AM in 1h
PGA | Matthew Fitzpatrick vs Francesco Molinari
Play on: Matthew Fitzpatrick -200 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Matthew Fitzpatrick -200

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Early comp play total today in the ACC as I like Syracuse and Virginia to land Over the total.

The Orange came out firing on Wednesday as they tallied 89 points in their 89-68 opening round win over N.C. State to make it 3 of their last 5 games played Over the total. Jim Boeheim's team is also on a 9-1 Over run their last 10 neutral site games played and they will be hooking up with a Virginia team that did end their regular season by landing Over in 4 of their final 5 games.

When these teams played their lone regular season contest back on January 25th, Virginia totaled 81 points in a game that landed Over the total by 8 1/2 points. That Over makes it 2 straight series Overs and a 6-2-1 overall Over run between the teams the past 9 times they have faced one another.

Based on the track records of both teams, best bet to start the day in Greensboro is going to be for the Orange and the Cavaliers to make their way Over the posted price.

3* SYRACUSE-VIRGINIA OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Second half of the season gets underway with the Knicks at the Bucks and I like New York plus the big number to stay close enough to get the cover in Milwaukee tonight.

New York went to the break having won 8 of their last 11 both straight up and against the spread.

Milwaukee did well to win 6 of their last 7 straight up before the break, but the Bucks did drop 3 of their last 4 prior to the All-Star break against the spread - all in the favorite role.

The Knicks did upend the Bucks back on December 20th at Madison Square Garden, 130-110 as the +13 points home underdog to stop a 5-game Milwaukee winning streak both straight up and against the spread.

No reason the 19-18 Knicks can't stay inside of this big number to open the second half of the season.

Take New York plus the points.

2* NEW YORK

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Free play Kansas