Thursday 3/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park

Oaklawn Park - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $88,000 • Post: 2:33P
FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 11, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TURNSTONE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MARY ALICE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HISSY MISSY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TOO PRETTY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
4	TURNSTONE	6/1	5/1
7	MARY ALICE	15/1	7/1
6	HISSY MISSY	9/2	8/1
8	TOO PRETTY	5/1	8/1
5	FIVE STAR MOON	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	TOO PRETTY	8	5/1	Front-runner	71	67	82.2	60.5	50.5
7	MARY ALICE	7	15/1	Front-runner	82	67	76.4	67.2	59.7
5	FIVE STAR MOON	5	4/1	Front-runner	80	67	63.5	63.5	54.0
2	LUCKY ROAD	2	30/1	Front-runner	58	55	63.0	37.6	19.1
11	ZANSHOES	11	8/1	Stalker	74	67	65.4	33.2	20.7
3	LOVELY LOU	3	3/1	Stalker	71	70	65.3	55.3	45.8
4	TURNSTONE	4	6/1	Trailer	75	67	60.8	63.0	58.5
10	STARRGARITA	10	8/1	Trailer	71	62	58.8	58.8	43.8
6	HISSY MISSY	6	9/2	Trailer	78	73	54.8	56.5	48.0
1	WARM BEAUTY	1	30/1	Trailer	50	49	44.5	44.5	26.5
9	MOCHA KISS	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	52	60.0	40.8	24.8

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 8:46P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CRIMINAL DEFENSE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. NO SALT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THAT QUALITY: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven d ays. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SAMSON LEE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	CRIMINAL DEFENSE	6/1	3/1
7	NO SALT	5/2	7/1
8	THAT QUALITY	2/1	8/1
6	SAMSON LEE	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	THAT QUALITY	8	2/1	Front-runner	94	71	77.7	51.2	44.7
4	COMMISSARIO	4	20/1	Front-runner	63	61	70.8	57.4	42.9
6	SAMSON LEE	6	4/1	Front-runner	71	74	58.1	73.3	65.8
7	NO SALT	7	5/2	Front-runner	75	83	51.4	73.5	69.5
1	FORECASTLE	1	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	72	27.5	57.8	45.8
2	CRIMINAL DEFENSE	2	6/1	Trailer	93	87	44.0	74.8	71.8
9	DAWN WEST	9	6/1	Trailer	62	61	26.0	58.4	41.9
5	RESPECT THE BOSS	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	62	63.0	63.0	48.5
3	DARBY DART	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	76	61.0	57.8	47.3

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#3 WINDSORS FOR IT (ML=7/2)
#6 FLUENT IN SARCASM (ML=9/2)


WINDSORS FOR IT - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. When Hanagan gives Almodovar a leg up on any noble animal, you know that with their win percentage you have much more than a fighting chance. Earnings per start is something that I think can be a crucial handicapping aspect. This thoroughbred is ranked at the top in this bunch. This equine ran well at Charles Town on February 3rd. Bounced in the last race, but should rebound today with a sharp effort. FLUENT IN SARCASM - Peltroche comes to ride again after getting to know the gelding in the last race. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jockey/conditioner combination. He must like the track here. Shipped in to finish first on January 27th and he looks tough once again.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TOP HAT TITAN (ML=3/1), #4 FERNWOOD DRIVE (ML=4/1), #5 READY TO RUN (ML=5/1),

TOP HAT TITAN - All kinds of crazy early speed on board for this affair. Little chance for this early speedster. FERNWOOD DRIVE - Hard to put your dough on this early speedball. Too much early speed in the race. READY TO RUN - Pace makes the race. Difficult for this early speedball to be able to manage the pace pressure from the rest of this group. Hard to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Have to be uncertain about the recent trend and awesome speed rating in the January 27th event. It was this gelding's greatest at that distance and this one should bounce today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 WINDSORS FOR IT to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 51

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 11, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. 5# CLASF.$4,000 Y DEBTS ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 STARSHIP HOSTILITY 10/1
# 6 D'WILDCAT RETURN 5/1
# 5 AUNT DIANA 10/1

STARSHIP HOSTILITY looks to be a decent contender especially at a such a nice price. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Don't overlook this mare in your bets - very dangerous with Diaz aboard. Has to be carefully examined based on the decent speed fig put up in the last race. D'WILDCAT RETURN - With Figueroa in the saddle guiding her, this mare will almost certainly be able to break out early for this event. The almost immediate return to the track points to a strong effort this time out. AUNT DIANA - Has been running admirably lately and will probably be on the lead early on.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 RANDOM PLEASURE 20/1
# 2 URBAN DIVA 6/1
# 4 AMERICAN ROYALTY 1/1

RANDOM PLEASURE is my selection especially at such a decent 20/1. URBAN DIVA - This horse could stun this field of horses at a decent number. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. AMERICAN ROYALTY - Ought to be carefully examined here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 69 - of her last contest.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:41pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#6 NEVERSTOPDREAMING (ML=5/2)
#4 NEW YORK STYLE (ML=2/1)


NEVERSTOPDREAMING - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first try on Feb 6th. Should be in tune with the animal even better in this race. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedy sort facing sluggish sorts today. Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be beneficial. Last race out at Gulfstream Park this horse finished ahead of today's morning line choice. Potential play if the public follows the morning line odds. NEW YORK STYLE - Really have to believe this race horse is going to be on the money at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 ENANO ASTRAY (ML=3/1), #1 MR TITO'S (ML=8/1), #2 VALID EXCHANGE (ML=8/1),

ENANO ASTRAY - Where is the early speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this animal. Don't think this runner will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. MR TITO'S - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance contests in order to back him. VALID EXCHANGE - You always think this equine has a shot to win, but he falls short most every time. Can't bet on this racer in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 NEVERSTOPDREAMING to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

03/11/21, OP, Race 5, 3.06 CT
03/11/21,OP,5,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:40:01 CLAIMING. Purse $23,000. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 11, 2021 Allowed 3 lbs. A Race Since December 11, 2020 Allowed 6 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Kristo	9/2	Gonzalez E	Green Aidan	FE	81	35.80	1.79/$1
098.4632	10	Off Sixes	5/1	Arrieta F	Hollendorfer Jerry	J	269	27.88	1.16/$1
098.1091	3	Ghostly Who	10/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino	T	81	35.80	1.79/$1
097.3794	9	Singandcryindubai	6/1	Bridgmohan J V	Amoss Thomas M.	WL	118	31.36	1.39/$1
096.1204	4	Stuart Hall	12/1	Tohill K S	Martin Timothy E.		81	35.80	1.79/$1
095.0711	5	Little No Way	7/2	Vazquez R A	Villafranco Federico	C	269	27.88	1.16/$1
093.6842	2	Determinant	30/1	Eramia R E	Holthus Paul E.		269	27.88	1.16/$1
093.2903	7	Wickets Way	10/1	De La Cruz W	Puhl Kim A.		81	35.80	1.79/$1
092.9285	8	Lookin for Eight	5/2	Cabrera D	Broberg Karl		313	30.67	1.13/$1
092.5895	6	Calculated Risker	20/1	Mojica O	Litfin Nevada		81	35.80	1.79/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.45, ROI 0.82/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -1.5368
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]LastRaceDistanceIsLessThanToday -with-
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]LastRaceWasNotFavorite(not entry)

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Dustin Hawkins

Mar 11 '21, 6:30 PM in 42m
NCAA-B | Oklahoma vs Kansas
Play on: UNDER 136 -112

1 Dimer on Oklahoma vs Kansas under 136 -112

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Jack Jones

Mar 11 '21, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | East Carolina vs UCF
Play on: UCF -5½ -108 at pinnacle

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: UCF -5.5
The UCF Knights are a real sleeper in this American Athletic Conference Tournament. They are playing as well as anyone in the conference outside Houston and Wichita State here down the stretch. And I look for them to continue their momentum here against the East Carolina Pirates.
UCF is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Both losses came by a single point to Cincinnati (68-69) and Wichita State (60-61). They have won and covered four straight coming in. That includes their 64-60 road win at East Carolina last time out when they were playing their 2nd game in 3 days. Now the Knights have been off since March 4th and have had a chance to rest up for this game.
East Carolina is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Pirates had a month-long COVID pause from February 8th to March 4th. After losing in their first game back to UCF, they went on to fall 69-82 to Cincinnati at home. This team just can't be trusted right now after that COVID pause, and with the way they have been playing for the last two months.
The Pirates are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win. UCF is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games, including 8-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games as a favorite. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. UCF is 11-0 SU in its last 11 meetings with East Carolina. Bet UCF Thursday.

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Mike Williams

Mar 11 '21, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Rice vs UAB
Play on: Rice +9 -110 at Draft Kings

1* on Rice +9 -110

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Bobby Conn

Mar 11 '21, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | East Carolina vs UCF
Play on: East Carolina +5½ -110 at Draft Kings

1* Free Play on East Carolina +5½ -110

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Kenny Walker

Mar 11 '21, 7:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Rangers vs Bruins
Play on: Rangers +165 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Rangers

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Ray Monohan

Mar 11 '21, 7:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Panthers vs Blue Jackets
Play on: Blue Jackets +117 at Draft Kings

Columbus +115
The Blue Jackets are worth a flyer in this spot. Florida has gone just 3-14 in their last 17 in Columbus and have dropped 21 of 29 against them. At plus money this is just too nice to pass up on.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Thursday 5* Free NHL ML Play

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Bryan Leonard

Mar 11 '21, 7:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Capitals vs Flyers
Play on: OVER 6 -107

2 Washington at Philadelphia
In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find Washington ranked 9th and Philadelphia 13th. In xG/60 the Capitals come in +0.09 and the Flyers -0.04. So both teams are roughly league average.
On the Power Play in G+-/60 Washington ranks 14th and Philadelphia 17th. In xG/60 we find the Capitals +6.10 and the Flyers +5.67.
Looking at the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Capitals rank 11th, while the Flyers are 28th. In xG/60 Washington is -5.33 and Philadelphia -6.87. A sizable edge to the visitor.
With Philadelphia being so poor on the Penalty Kill, you have to think this could be a good scoring opportunity for Washington. Instead of looking at the side, which is priced pretty well. Let’s expect a high scoring contest.
PLAY OVER

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Sean Murphy

Mar 11 '21, 7:38 PM in 1h
NHL | Lightning vs Red Wings
Play on: UNDER 5½ -106

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.
We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams on Tuesday night in the Motor City as Tampa Bay skated to a 4-3 victory. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Lightning look to continue their dominance of the Red Wings this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 when the Red Wings are revenging a loss in which they allowed four goals or more this season, averaging just 1.5 goals per game in that situation, contributing to an average game total of just 4.5 goals. When playing at home off a one-goal home loss, the Wings have averaged just 1.6 goals per game over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.9 goals. Meanwhile, the Lightning are averaging just 2.2 goals per game when coming off three consecutive games where both teams scored three goals or more this season, as is the case here. This has the potential to be a flat spot for the Bolts at the tail-end of what has been a very successful six-game road trip. While I have no interest in fading them with a play on the Wings here, I will downgrade the Tampa Bay offense slightly and play the 'under'. Take the under (8*).