Saturday 3/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:41 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Elche at Real Madrid
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 13, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Total UNDER 3.0 (-115)
Spain La Liga
Real Madrid have a huge midweek clash with with Atalanta upcoming this week and there is no doubt this is a bad spot for them, however I’m not fully on board with fading them, instead will be playing the Under in this game.
Real Madrid have conceded just 21 goals in 26 matches this year and only seven of their games have finished Over this total. In their last 15 games in all competitions including the Champions League and the Copa del Rey, only one game has finished Over this total.
Meanwhile, for Elche, picking up even a point here against Real Madrid would be huge as they sit two points clear of the relegation zone right now. They have also played to a lot of low-scoring games this year, also with only 7 matches finishing Over this total in their 25 games.
Elche have the lowest xG tally in the league, generating just 0.68 per game and I think they are likely to be blanked here while I don’t see Real Madrid scoring a ton. Likely a 1-0 or 2-0 score so I’m seeing more value on the Under than the current -1.75 price on Real Madrid.
TAKE UNDER 3.0 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to -130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:42 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200141) Burnley FC at (200142) Everton
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 13, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Total Over 2.25 (-113)
We're taking a piece of the Over 2.25 goals in Saturday's EPL match between Burnley and Everton.
Everton have just win at home since January 1st, a 1-0 win two weeks ago against a struggling Southampton side.
What's been even more concerning for The Toffees is their sub-par defense over that stretch, registering the 5th worst expected goals against average in the league at 1.42 xga.
Both teams should find the net here on Saturday and push this one Over the total so take Burnley/Everton Over the total for this weekend.
PLAY: OVER 2.25

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:42 AM

The Prez

Event: (615) Oklahoma State at (616) Texas
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 13, 2021 6PM EST
Play: Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110)
615 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. 616 Texas Longhorns -2, 145
In early February, the 11-5 Oklahoma State Cowboys hosted the 6th ranked 11-4 Texas Longhorns. The Cowboys' resume found quality wins over Arkansas and Kansas. Oki State had a pair of bad losses to TCU. The other three defeats came to ranked Texas, West Virginia, and Baylor.

State was considered a tough out, but the two losses to the Horned Frogs diminished their national stature. Inconsistent defensive work and the young backcourts lack of valuing possessions positioned Oki State as an "on any given Sunday" squad postured the squad pedestrian when matched up against Division I Bluebloods.

The Longhorns are great on the boards and play "an in your face" pressure defense as far out as the three-point line. Oklahoma State is coming off a Big 12 Friday afternoon win against Baylor, offering the selection committee evidence of how much more hardcourt savvy the team is than was the case in the February loss to the Longhorns. Since the Cowboys defeated the Longhorns on Feb 6th, a double OT victory, Texas has shown some cracks in their armor while the Cowboys have improved with each passing game. Back the Cowboys plus the small handicap.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:42 AM

Bryan Leonard

Event: (45) Chicago Blackhawks at (46) Florida Panthers
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 13, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Total Over 6.0 (-110)
45 Chicago at Florida
In 5x5 G+-/60 we see Chicago ranking 24th and Florida 6th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -0.31 and the Panthers +0.41. A nice advantage for the host.
On the Power Play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 5th and Florida 7th. The Blackhawks in xG/60 are +5.33, and Florida +7.14. Another nice edge for the host as Chicago is in for some negative regression.
On the Penalty Kill Chicago ranks 25th and Florida 19th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -5.92, the Panthers -6.23.
The line in this game looks fair, but as good as these teams are on the power play, they have struggled short handed. Let’s look for a high scoring affair.
PLAY OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:43 AM

Carmine Bianco

Event: (35) Winnipeg Jets at (36) Toronto Maple Leafs
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 13, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs -108 In regulation
NHL - Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs
Quick Synopsis: Final game of a three game set between these two with each registering a 4-3 win. Toronto have run into their share of hot goalies this month with Demko in Vancouver and Hellebuyck now for the Jets but have continuously put 35+ shots on goal and did get some much needed puck luck on Thursday night. The North's best team should get the W here and we'll take them in regulation to do it.
The play is Toronto Maple Leafs -108 In regulation time

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:47 AM

Race of the Week: Beholder Mile at Santa Anita
March 11, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$300,000 GRADE 1 BEHOLDER MILE
Saturday, March 13, 2021

The Lead:
A pair of stakes share the marquee Saturday at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 San Simeon for turf sprinters in Race 7 and the Grade 1 Beholder Mile in Race 8. But one filly gets a marquee all of her own in the spotlight, 2020 Preakness heroine Swiss Skydiver, who makes her 4-year-old debut in the Beholder against 7 others.

The former Vanity Handicap was renamed to honor Beholder, its 2016 winner, a year later. Beholder won 18 races and more than $6.1 million in her legendary career, defeating Stellar Wind in her '16 victory in this race, a year before that rival would add a Beholder Mile trophy of her own.

Field Depth:
SWISS SKYDIVER not only is the field's lone Grade 1 winner, she's won twice at the level. HARVEST MOON is a Grade 2 winner, while SANENUS has a Grade 3 win on her resume. GOLDEN PRINCIPAL is Grade 1-placed, while MISS STORY has placed at the Grade 3 level. SWISS SKYDIVER clearly has competed amongst the strongest competition, while HARVEST MOON has a solid strength of schedule edge on the others.

Pace:
GOLDEN PRINCIPAL made the lead sprinting in the Grade 2 Santa Monica and should leave running from post 2. AS TIME GOES BY has natural speed and should be in the early mix with HARVEST MOON, MISS STORMY and SWISS SKYDIVER vying in that third-fourth-fifth zone early. This appears to be an average pace for the level and distance with no major pace edges.

Our Eyes:
SWISS SKYDIVER was America's most accomplished 3-year-old filly a year ago and put together a historic season of travel around the pandemic. She won the Gulfstream Oaks, Fantasy, Santa Anita Oaks and Alabama, finishing second in the Blue Grass (against the boys) and the Kentucky Oaks. Her season to remember culminated when she became the second filly in a century to win the Preakness, securing her place in history with a determined rail tussle vs. eventual Horse of the Year Authentic. It's hard to believe that she paid $20-plus in 3 of her 5 wins last year. SWISS SKYDIVER gives her rivals 2-4 pounds in her return to Santa Anita and leaves from the rail under veteran Robby Albarado. How sharp will she be off a Nov. 27 layoff since a disappointing run in the Breeders' Cup Distaff? She's only had 5 workouts back on the tab in Florida and consider trainer Kenny McPeek is 26: 2-4-2 with graded stakes performers coming off 100-day layoffs or longer since 2013, according to the Betmix database. But the last time McPeek had a 4-year-old filly of this caliber was 2003, and Take Charge Lady returned from a similar layoff to take superstar Azeri to a photo finish runner-up in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom.

Speaking of Take Charge Lady, her daughter AS TIME GOES BY will be 1 of 2 Bob Baffert entrants in the Beholder Mile, along with GOLDEN PRINCIPAL. This pair could control the early pace, and often when stablemates are in charge, this can soften up quite a bit. AS TIME GOES BY has vastly improved in all 4 starts, winning her last 2 by 13 combined lengths. She makes her stakes debut in the Beholder Mile off a series of fantastic workouts. XBTV was on hand March 7 for her final move and it was a huge finish in company with Ax Man. Notably, too, she was a workmate last fall with champion Gamine and looked every bit her equal in the morning. This is a serious filly ready to shine.

HARVEST MOON finished ahead of SWISS SKYDIVER in last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff when a very good fourth to Monomoy Girl. Simon Callaghan had this one in fantastic form from July through November, including a Santa Anita victory in the Grade 2 Zenyatta in late September. Whereas SWISS SKYDIVER has logged 5 works for her return from the same layoff, HARVEST MOON has had 8, and benefits from walking out of her home stall.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SWISS SKYDIVER doesn't have to win this race, but it's difficult to project her to finish off the board. She's classy, game and pace-versatile.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
THIS TEA has fired 104 and 101 BRIS late pace figures in her last 2 starts and would be the beneficiary if the pace picks up heat. It's hard to envision a longshot player in this exacta, so we're talking the bottom of the tris and supers if it's going to happen.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win AS TIME GOES BY.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:48 AM

AI Picks: Saturday's Laurel Full Card
March 11, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Laurel Park’s 9-race Saturday card features 5 stakes races as part of Good Samaritan Day. The handful of co-features boast purses in excess of $450,000 alone, including the $100,000 Private Terms en route to the Preakness Stakes. Let’s dig into the artificial intelligence of the app for the full card, providing data-driven insight on an exciting day of racing.

Selections provided by the app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with the selections.

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Laurel // Race 1 // 12:25 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/8 miles

#6 Imagine Victory (8-5 ML) // 32%W // 55%P // 64%S
#5 Car Lady (3-1 ML) // 22%W // 48%P // 65%S
#1 Walk It Out Nanny (2-1 ML) // 21%W // 44%P // 63%S
#4 Moonlight Miss (12-1 ML) // 9%W // 24%P // 46%S

Notable: Either Imagine Victory or Walk It Out Nanny leads in each of the top-11 factors considered by this race. Imagine Victory is rated No. 1 in the top-2 most important factors, Avg. Speed Last 3 and Avg. Lifetime Earnings.

Laurel // Race 2 // 12:56 pm ET // claiming // 6-1/2 furlongs

#3 Keepyourskateson (9-5 ML) // 27%W // 49%P // 65%S
#7 Texas Reward (8-1 ML) // 18%W // 35%P // 52%S
#5 Sick Pack Sara (3-1 ML) // 17%W // 35%P // 51%S
#1 Hello Gracie (4-1 ML) // 12%W // 29%P // 45%S

Notable: 27% Win Projection for Keepyourstakeson is the lowest on today’s 9-race card for a top pick, but she leads in 6 of the top-8 handicapping factors for this race. Second choice Texas Reward at 8-1 could be an attractive value play via Gulfstream.

Laurel // Race 3 // 1:28 pm ET // Beyond the Wire Stakes // 1 mile

#2 Street Lute (1-1 ML) // 33%W // 55%P // 76%S
#1 Buckey’s Charm (8-1 ML) // 21%W // 46%P // 71%S
#3 Fraudulent Charge (5-2 ML) // 19%W // 38%P // 58%S
#4 Journeytothemoon (12-1 ML) // 15%W // 34%P // 54%S

Notable: Street Lute and Fraudulent Charge renew their rivalry for a third time. Only a nose and 1 length separated them in previous meetings, but leans heavily to Street Lute to continue her winning ways. There’s surprisingly little support for Fair Grounds invader Littlestitious at just 13%.

Laurel // Race 4 // 1:57 pm ET // maiden claiming // 5-1/2 furlongs furlongs

#1 Cookies and Cream (9-5 ML) // 37%W // 53%P // 65%S
#2 Great Cause (12-1 ML) // 12%W // 34%P // 53%S
#4 Glory March (3-1 ML) // 10%W // 17%P // 23%S
#5 Joyce G (5-1 ML) // 10%W // 17%P // 23%S

Notable: Second in a similar ace last time, Cookies and Cream makes sense as the top choice. But the AI picks undervalue first-time starters due to insufficient data, so the gap between rookies Glory March and Joyce G may not be as expansive as the projections appear.

Laurel // Race 5 // 2:27 pm ET // Not For Love Stakes // 6 furlongs

#2 Whereshetoldmetogo (3-5 ML) // 34%W // 51%P // 60%S
#1 Stroll Smokin (4-1 ML) // 19%W // 42%P // 53%S
#6 Karan’s Notion (5-1 ML) // 16%W // 34%P // 58%S
#7 Carey Times (15-1 ML) // 9%W // 18%P // 28%S

Notable: Strong favorite Whereshetoldmetogo aims for 4 consecutive victories and has won 4 of 6 prior races at Laurel Park. She is ranked best in each of the top-8 handicapping factors for this race and 13 of the top 15. You can’t get any more dominant than that and she should be a solid early and late pick five single.

Laurel // Race 6 // 3:03 pm ET // Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes // 1-1/8 miles

#5 Galerio (7-2 ML) // 28%W // 44%P // 58%S
#4 Tattooed (9-2 ML) // 17%W // 36%P // 49%S
#2 Cordmaker (3-1 ML) // 17%W // 31%P // 46%S
#6 Dixie Drawl (6-1 ML) // 11%W // 23%P // 37%S

Notable: Galerio has finished first or second in 13 straight races and seeks his first career stakes victory. Tattooed defeated Galerio by a neck in the Jennings Handicap, but it is Galerio with whom the algorithm sides. Cordmaker is ranked 1st or 2nd in each of the top-7 handicapping factors employs for this race. All three would be reliable contenders.

Laurel // Race 7 // 3:34 pm ET // Conniver Stakes // 7 furlongs

#8 Deep Red (5-1 ML) // 32%W // 53%P // 68%S
#4 Artful Splatter (5-1 ML) // 22%W // 33%P // 43%S
#3 S W Briar Rose (10-1 ML) // 14%W // 33%P // 49%S
#6 Kiss the Girl (3-1 ML) // 11%W // 29%P // 45%S

Notable: Top AI pick Deep Red will be ridden by Sheldon Russell. stats show Russell is 5-for-10 in stakes races at Laurel Park in 2021 coming into today’s action. S W Briar Rose finished second by a head in this race a year ago and offers an attractive morning line price and reasonable Win Projection. Artful Splatter ranks No. 1 in 3 of the top-5 handicapping factors for this race.

Laurel // Race 8 // 4:07 pm ET // Private Terms Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#2 Maythehorsebewithu (2-1 ML) // 34%W // 47%P // 63%S
#4 Zertz (8-1 ML) // 16%W // 37%P // 56%S
#6 Excellerator (6-1 ML) // 16%W // 31%P // 52%S
#3 Shackled Love (6-1 ML) // 10%W // 27%P // 44%S

Notable: Maythehorsebewithu has won 2 of 3 winter races at Laurel this season and jockey Russell, as noted in Race 7, has been fantastic in stakes races over the local strip in recent months. Maythehorsebewithu leads 7 of the top-10 handicapping factors, according to ranks first or second in 9 of them. Distance will be the question in his first race around 2 turns. He does not rank among the race’s top-5 in distance pedigree ratings.

Laurel // Race 9 // 4:40 pm ET // starter optional claiming // 5-1/2 furlongs

#5 Push to Start (5-2 ML) // 32%W // 50%P // 62%S
#4 Visual Artist (7-2 ML) // 26%W // 49%P // 70%S
#3 Zen Pi (2-1 ML) // 16%W // 31%P // 53%S
#1 Disputed Notion (20-1 ML) // 11%W // 20%P // 30%S

Notable: The 6-point spread between the top 2 choices is the most contended opinions of the day. Push to Start has made the early lead in every one of his 5 career starts and should be difficult to catch at this dash distance. Push to Start and Zen Pi dominate the ratings of the 5 most important handicapping factors in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:48 AM

AI Picks Triple Crown Preps: Rebel & Private Terms
March 11, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday presents another duo of Triple Crown prep races toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. To help you tackle the diverse set of races, the app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

Selections provided by the app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Laurel Park // Private Terms Stakes // Race 8 // 4:07 PM ET

#2 Maythehorsebewithu // 34%W // 47%P // 63%S
#4 Zertz // 16%W // 37%P // 56%S
#6 Excellerator // 16%W // 31%P // 52%S
#3 Shackled Love // 10%W // 27%P // 44%S
#5 Royal Number // 10%W // 27%P // 35%S
#7 Shackqueenking // 8%W // 23%P // 35%S
#1 Commodore Perry // 6%W // 10%P // 15%S

Oaklawn Park // Rebel Stakes // Race 11 // 6:16 PM ET

#7 Concert Tour // 26%W // 45%P // 66%S
#6 Keepmeinmind // 23%W // 42%P // 55%S
#3 Hozier // 12%W // 31%P // 44%S
#1 Caddo River // 10%W // 26%P // 43%S
#8 Super Stock // 10%W // 18%P // 29%S
#2 Big Lake // 9%W // 16%P // 28%S
#4 Get Her Number // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S
#5 Twilight Blue // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:48 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

March 12, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 13-race card ready to roll with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Friday, Yanninck Gingras and Dexter Dunn led the pilots with three wins. Jeff Cullipher was the top conditioner on the card with two trips to the winner's circle. Speed held well, six of 13 winners were on the lead at the top of the lane. No winner was more than four lengths back turning for home.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Pikachu Hanover (8-1)-Rode the pylons in last versus a very tough winner but did rally late to cash a 2nd place check. Drops to a better level and there isn't a JL Cruze in this field. TMac should have this 7-year-old in striking range at the top of the lane.
4-Get Legs (3-1)-Winner of 2 straight and 7 of 8 lifetime steps up. There are times this would be a play against situation, but this Team Miller trainee looks so confident in winning it's best to not overlook.
6-Some Chapter (7/2)-They don't come much more consistent than this Chapter 7 four-year-old. Dunn steers and should be bet. Drops back in at the same class after just getting nipped at the wire. Hasn't finished worse than 3rd in the last 11 starts, that happened only once and has taken 7-pictures.
7-Mission Accepted (4-1) -Burke trainee has banked over $880k and makes 1st appearance since 12-4. The barn has won at a 25% clip in the last 30 days and the qualifier was good. This is a tough race but winning isn't out of the question if fires hot off the bench.

Race 7

2-On Accident (7/2)-Drops to the level of last win on 2-20. Callahan is right back in the bike for a 2nd tour of duty and he should have this gelding forwardly placed at the top of the lane.
3-Saying Grace N (3-1)-Similar to #2 as last win came at this class on 2-13 and Zeron was steering that night as well. It wouldn't be a surprise if was used early to get on the engine. May not look back if gets the top without using much gas.
6-Amercan Boy N (6-1)-Tossing last dull effort versus better after being off 2 weeks. Ten-year-old has been camera shy but this is a spot to shine. Last win came against this kind on 1-16 and should offer a square price tonight.

Race 8

1-Boiling Oar (9/2)-Gets some class relief and starting from the rail shouldn't hurt chances. Has hit the board in 5 of 11 races at M1 but has only taken one picture. This could be an opportunity as the main foes start outside. Miller could work an efficient trip and roll by down the lane.
9-Lexus Witha View A (7/2)-Last 2 post draws have not been favorable. But does come off a nice try from the 8-hole and fits with this field. Aussie bred makes 2nd start of the meet and also tries Lasix for the 2nd time. Has the gate speed to be forwardly placed and AMac should be able to find live cover and grind it out.

Race 9

4-Colossal Stride A (3-1)-Can't fault the effort in last. Actually has been good in all 3 Big M starts recording 2 wins and a close miss 2nd place finish. There probably will be an honest pace and Dunn should be rolling down the lane.
5-Like Clockwork (6-1)-Wasn't Dunn's pick but Gingras knows well and he could fine a live cover flow. Could get a nice tow from the program chalk #4 and is another who would benefit from a lively pace.
7-Gods Spirit N (7/2)-Makes 2nd start off a sick scratch, was good last week and now gets class relief. My guess is Dube leaves and does have the gate speed to land on top of the stack. Versatile 7-year-old has hit the board in 4 of 7 starts here and has 2 wins. Could be tough to beat with a smooth trip.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,4,6,7/2,3,6/1,9/4,5,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:49 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 3/13/21

March 13, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click here to View Daily Workout Report

Click here to view video analysis of the Rebel S.-G2

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Gerlach’s; 5-Call Nine One One; 11-Chasing Fame

Forecast: The opener is the true definition of a “grass grab bag,” a wide-open maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-olds offering unknowns, question marks, and lightly-raced runners who may (or may not) be better than shown. We’ll go three-deep but the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Gerlach’s was given a race in his troubled debut and seems likely to move forward with that bit of experience behind him combined the drop from a straight maiden affair along with the addition of blinkers and Lasix. If he can leave cleanly today, the V. Cerin-trained son of Grazen should be prominent throughout with a ground-saving trip and have every chance to show what he can do. Chasing Fame has been a big disappointment in a series of straight maiden races in which he’s been fairly well bet. Today, against this considerably softer group, the son of Tapiture should be competitive and if held up and allowed to produce a late run he may be able to tag the suspect speed. Call Nine One Onehas displayed some early speed in a.m. preps and may be the most dangerous of the newcomers. He has low profile connections and should be a decent price so he’s probably worth tossing in somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Triple Tap

Forecast: Triple Tap, a half-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, makes his debut following a string of very good workouts that should have him plenty fit and ready for this five-runner maiden sprint over seven furlongs. The son of Tapit doesn’t strikes us as being blazingly quick, but he’s been finishing in his drills to indicate this extended sprint distance should be perfect for his style. Drawn comfortably outside and therefore able to dictate his trip, the B. Baffert-trained sophomore projects to track stable mate Barraza during the early stages and then go with it when ready. There’s no gamble here (he’s 4/5 on the morning line) so we can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Good With People; 3-Gator Shining; 6-Coulthard

Forecast: This six furlong turf dash for 3-year-olds has two committed speed types and two devout stretch runners, so the pace flow may dictate the outcome. If Good With People and Mac Daddy Too hook up early, the closers certainly will have an edge, and Coulthard, an impressive maiden winner over this course and distance in his U.S. debut last month, will have every chance to score right back. The Irish-bred colt loses U. Rispoli today due to suspension but the P. D’Amato-trained colt hopefully will get the patient ride he requires from substitute rider T. Pereira. A bullet training track workout since raced indicates the European import is holding his form. Gator Shining, the other dangerous deep closer, was never a factor in the Baffle S. while being victimized by a slow early pace but a repeat of his nose defeat at this level two runs back puts him in the picture today if the race shape is favorable. G. Franco doesn’t get many live mounts on this circuit but he’s done very well in a limited sample for the R. Baltas barn. Among the two committed speed types Good With People might be the more dangerous. He’s a first-time Lasix user returning to grass while shortening up from a two-turn state-bred stakes race and could fire a big shot following a two-month layoff for the P. Miller barn. From the rail he has only one way to go, and if the son of Curlin to Mischief can shake free of Mac Daddy Too early he could prove to be an elusive target.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-Mr. Lovejoy

Forecast: Let’s take a stand in this starter’s allowance ($25,000) sprint and single Mr. Lovejoy, claimed in his last pair and protected today by new trainer V. Cerin (a strong 23% with this angle). A win machine (14 victories in 36 starts with 10 seconds/thirds, the son of Discreetly Mine has only one way to go, on the lead, gate to wire, and in a field lacking in effective closers he could realistically win this race in the opening quarter mile by outfooting the other front-runners. Freshened since mid-December but sporting a steady, healthy recent series of workouts, the veteran gelding is fast on speed figures and attracts one of the barn’s “go to” riders, J. J. Hernandez, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Big Buzz; 4-Tropical Terror

Forecast: This first-level allowance affair over 10 furlongs on grass drew just five runners, so there’s not really much to work with. Big BuzzM, away since August but with a series of stamina-building drills at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit and ready, may be most effective on the front end. And in a pace flow that projects him as the controlling speed the veteran gelding may be able to take control early and keep on going. The main concern is his overall record (2 wins in 24 starts) but he returns protected and lands F. Prat so we suspect the A. Kitchinghman-trained son of Mr. Big is extremely live and well-meant. For protection, we’ll also toss in Tropical Terror, not exactly a win machine himself (one-for-15 with eight seconds/thirds) but at least on paper the most dangerous of the closing types.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Oil Can Knight

Forecast: Oil Can Knight drops sharply in class from $32,000 to $12,500 after winning in a $25,000 seller two races back, so his condition is a question, but if he has one good one left he should be able to outrun this group. This extended sprint distance will allow the son of Can the Man to settle into a comfortable stalking position without having to be used, and with a record that shows five wins from 10 career starts over the Santa Anita main track the S. Knapp-trained veteran certainly knows where the wire is. There’s probably not a lot of value to be found at his morning line of 2-1, so we can use ‘Knight as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Gregorian Chant; 7-Jolie Olimpica

Forecast: Jolie Olimpica faces the boys today in this year’s edition of the San Simeon S.-G3 but for whatever it’s worth the classy Brazilian mare won two graded stakes facing males in South America before being imported and has local speed figures (including three triple-digit Beyer numbers) that are more than good enough to handle this assignment. The R. Mandella-trained daughter of Drosselmeyer projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and then have her chance to kick home from the top of the lane to the wire. Gregorian Chant seems to have found his niche as a late-running turf sprinter, and a repeat of his clever score in the restricted Clocker’s Corner Stakes over this course and distance in late January puts him in the hunt. Not nearly as fast on pure numbers as our top pick, the English-bred gelding nevertheless is worth including as a back-up or a saver just in case there’s a pace meltdown or if Jolie Olimpica, for whatever reason, fails to fire her best shot.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Swiss Skydiver; 3-Harvest Moon

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Beholder S.-G1 came up salty, with champion Swiss Skydiver making her seasonable debut along with the potentially top class Harvest Moon, both of whom competed in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 when last seen in November. ‘Skydiver, the Preakness winner at the expense of Horse of the Year Authentic, blew out in 58 seconds flat at Gulfstream Park last week prior to being flown to California so we’ll assume the K. McPeek-trained filly is fit and ready. Last year she ventured West to capture the Santa Anita Oaks-G1 so we know she likes the track, so if she brings her “A” game the daughter of Daredevil will be hard to beat. Harvest Moon, an excellent fourth in the BC Distaff after cutting out rapid fractions, probably will receive her preferred patient ride today and has looked terrific in the a.m. leading up to this race, indicating the J. Shirreffs-trained daughter of Uncle Mo could easily be a better type now than she was doing her outstanding fall campaign that produced two graded stakes victories. In a deep field that also includes the likes of La Canada S.-G3 Sanenus and the rapidly-developing B. Baffert-trained As Time Goes By, we’ll try to survive and advance using just Swiss Skydiver and Harvest Moon in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Bang for Your Buck; 5-Bench Judge; 7-Beaudacious

Forecast: The finale is a fairly competitive state-bred first-level allowance sprint on turf requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Bang for Your Buck broke his maiden over this course and distance in mid-January with a visually pleasing performance that produced a career top speed figure, one that makes him dangerous right back despite the class hike. The son of Unusual Heat was making his first start on grass and the surface switch moved him up a ton, so let’s try him right back with V. Espinoza, who hasn’t ridden many lately, staying aboard. Beaudacious, runner-up to Bang for Your Buck in that race and therefore still a maiden, nevertheless must be considered a contender due to the seven pound shift in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. Furthermore, the son of Karakontie catches a field without pace, and if he leaves cleanly today the B. Koriner-trained colt may find himself on or near soft early fractions. If you like Bang for Your Buck (as we do), you have to use Beaudacious as well. Bench Judge a two-time winner over the local lawn, is the morning line favorite at 3-1 and deservedly so. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the P. Miller-trained gelding has the edge in the speed figure department and good stalking style that should have him within striking range throughout.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:49 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 3/13/21

March 13, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

Oaklawn Park – Sixth Race – Post time: 2:36 CT
1-Ashaar (9/2)

This once-highly regarded Into Mischief colt tries two turns for the first time in this entry-level allowance event and from his good inside post seems certain to establish the pace in a race without much speed. If he’s ever going to get the trip, it’ll be in his first attempt, and given the projected pace scenario and with the switch to J. Rosario this T. Pletcher-trained colt should be more than capable of running his rivals off their feet on the front end. At 9/2 on the morning line he represents an example gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Santa Anita Park – Seventh Race – Post time: 3:30 PT
3-Bang for Your Buck (5-1)

The son of Unusual Heat tried grass for the first time and predictably left his previous form behind when breaking his maiden over this course and distance in mid-January with a visually pleasing performance that produced a career top speed figure, one that makes him dangerous right back despite the class hike. There’s not a whole lot of speed signed on in this six furlong dash, so hopefully his deep closing style won’t be compromised, but at or near his morning line of 5-1 the B. Heap-trained gelding offers good wagering value.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:49 AM

Rebel, Private Terms Analysis & BTH Championship

March 11, 2021 | By Johnny D

Racing toward the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs continues nationwide. Saturday’s main event is the Rebel at Oaklawn Park with 85 total points toward spots in the Derby starting gate on the line. There’s also the matter of $1 million dollars in purse money that will be distributed to the top connections. While there still is plenty of water that needs to run under the bridge between now and May 1, there’s a decent chance that the one to ultimately wear roses is in this race.

OAKLAWN PARK (RACE 11, 6:16PM ET) // REBEL STAKES (GR 2, $1M) // 1 1/16 MILES
50 - 20 - 10 - 5 Kentucky Derby Points

1. CADDO RIVER (COX/GEROUX) - 9/5

This son of Hard Spun hasn’t run a poor race in 4 starts and never has been worse than second with 2 wins. Notably, one of those victories came in his first start as a 3-year-old around 2 turns at Oaklawn in the one-mile Smarty Jones. Caddo River made the lead and continued to widen his advantage throughout. He’s got speed, the rail and a powerful trainer/jockey combo that scores at 26%. Trainer Brad Cox continues his winning ways and jockey Geroux is top notch and knows how to let a speed horse do his thing. Only drawback for this one could be that he hasn’t faced top competition. Will he blink in his first start against worthy foes? Brad Cox-trained horses rarely do. Win Contender.

2. BIG LAKE (ASMUSSEN/SANTANA JR.) - 12/1

He’s won his last two starts but hasn’t faced a foe with the talent of #1 Caddo River or #7 Concert Tour. Good news is that he won both races going two turns (at Fair Grounds) and the maiden and allowance races were both as a 3-year-old. He should sit a decent trip behind the previously mentioned pair, and he stacks up reasonably well with the rest of the field, so an in the money finish is possible. Exotics.

3. HOZIER (BAFFERT/GARCIA) - 12/1

This son of Pioneerof the Nile broke maiden last out going 2 turns at Santa Anita when he defeated stablemate Fenway, who failed as favorite in his return. Before that, Hozier finished fourth, double-digit lengths behind trainer Baffert’s other Rebel entrant #7 Concert Tour. Jockey Joel Rosario, who piloted Hozier to his maiden score, departs for the ride on #7 Concert Tour. Hozier should be sitting behind the early and he’s fit and a Baffert. Those factors give him a chance to hit the board. Exotics.

4. GET HER NUMBER (MILLER/CASTELLANO) - 8/1

He’s been gone since September, training at San Luis Rey, away from prying clocker eyes. It will be interesting to see if he can continue the fine work delivered at 2. He showed speed to win 2 of 3 starts—one at 5 furlongs on grass and the other going a mile and one-sixteenth on dirt in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. The question with precocious performers is can they can continue to improve, or will others will catch up to them with maturity? Jockey Javier Castellano replaces regular rider Flavien Prat. We’ll need to pass on this colt until we see what kind of transformation he’s made from 2 to 3. He should be close up in the early going and it figures to be crowded there. Pass.

5. TWILIGHT BLUE (SHARP/HERNANDEZ JR.) - 15/1

He has 2 wins in 6 starts, the last came in a muddy allowance race at Oaklawn going a mile and one-sixteenth. If the track is ‘off’ Saturday, you could move him up a notch or two. Overall, he will need to step his game up to contend in here. Pass.

6. KEEPMEINMIND (DIODORO/COHEN) - 4/1

This son of Laoban was second first out in a maiden race and then raced against top-notch foes in stakes races for his next three starts. He won the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club last out in November and was no worse than third in two other Grade 1 races. He has no speed but owns a strong closing kick. His local training regime was interrupted by unseasonable weather in Hot Springs and he skipped the twice-cancelled Southwest, but his trainer says he’s ready to go. Expect #1 Caddo River and #7 Concert Tour to go a decent pace early. That will help set up Keepmeinmind’s closing kick. It’s just difficult to imagine both of these quality front-runners packing it in late. Exotics.

7. CONCERT TOUR (BAFFERT/ROSARIO) - 2/1

This son of Street Sense has done everything right without being asked. He’s unbeaten in 2 starts and regular rider Joel Rosario has yet to demand he break a sweat. Perhaps, Saturday will be that moment and #1 Caddo River could be the horse that forces Rosario to tap into reserves. This colt worked a sparkling six furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:11 2/5 and then galloped out a mile without missing a beat. He’s a good one. No doubt. Some may question why he didn’t put stablemate Freedom Fighter away with more authority at the finish of the seven-furlong San Vicente. Give Freedom Fighter some credit. He never quit but he wasn’t going to win either. Win Contender.

8. SUPER STOCK (ASMUSSEN/TALAMO) - 6/1

This son of Dialed In returns to the races for the first time since October. He’s won 1 of 6 starts—a five and one-half furlong restricted stakes race at Lone Star. He finished just behind #6 Keepmeinmind while third in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and then forced the pace to be second in the mile and one-sixteenth Street Sense at Churchill Downs. He’s been in the money in 5 of 6 races in a decent 2-year-old season. How much he’s developed will decide how lucrative his fate going forward. He has a couple of nice 5 furlong moves going into this for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Let’s give him an outing to see if he’s matured. Pass.

BOTTOM LINE

In Kentucky Derby Championship races there were two major upsets last weekend: Weyburn won the Gr. 3 Gotham at Aqueduct and Helium gassed Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby foes. Life is Good was a bit better than ‘good’ as he won the San Felipe as favorite. Saturday, the Gr. 2 Rebel appears likely to go to either #1 Caddo River or #7 Concert Tour. They’re just too strong to ignore.

Which is more likely to win? Great question. There’s really not much between them and neither will deliver a big price. Suggestion here is to wager a few bucks for entertainment’s sake and then watch the race closely looking for clues you’ll want to remember come Derby Day.

LAUREL PARK (RACE 8, 4:07PM ET) // PRIVATE TERMS STAKES ($100K) // 1 1/16 MILES

Saturday, sophomore runners also will vie in the Private Terms Saturday at Laurel. While the one mile and one-sixteenth test does not award Kentucky Derby points, the race has attracted a field of 7 and could produce a Preakness starter. Below is a horse-by-horse analysis of the race.

1. COMMODORE PERRY (COLEBROOK/CARRASCO) - 15/1

This guy has yet to break maiden in two starts at Turfway Park. He was beaten only a neck in his last out at one mile. He would be a surprise. Pass.

2. MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU (B. RUSSELL/S. RUSSELL) - 2/1

Last out this son of Bullsbay sauntered to an easy win in the Miracle Wood going one mile at Laurel. That was around one turn, and this race will be two turns. That might not matter as the gelding is on his game for 31% trainer Brittany Russell. Husband Sheldon Russell is up and he and wins at a 23% pace. Together they hit at 36%. Those are strong stats! Maythehorsebwithu has been either first or second in 6 of 7 starts and that success should continue in here as he will use his early speed and inside draw to the utmost advantage. There is other speed in here, but they will need to hustle to beat him to the first turn. One to beat.

3. SHACKLED LOVE (G. CAPUANO/TBD) - 6/1

He raced for a $62,5K tag last out in an optional claiming mile at Laurel and led into the stretch. Unfortunately, he couldn’t hang on and ended up second for the second time in five starts, with 1 win. He could add a bit of early spice to the race but doesn’t have enough late to finish the project. Pass.

4. ZERTZ (KREISER/LYNCH) - 8/1

This son of Super Saver has 2 wins in 5 starts and they both came at Penn National, including a ‘ridden out’ romp by more than 11 lengths last out. Never off the board in 5 starts, this colt may find the water a bit deeper in here. Pass.

5. ROYAL NUMBER (TROMBETTA/PIMENTEL) - 5/2

Connections of this son of Palace Malice became excited after a strong optional claiming victory at Laurel—more than 7 lengths clear from #3 Shackled Love--and they dispatched this colt to the Big Apple and the Gr. 3 Withers Stakes. He wasn’t disgraced--fourth beaten nearly 10 lengths in the mile and one-eighth race. He’ll be looking to parlay that grinding effort into a payday in the Private Terms. He has little early speed but did close to finish third (placed second) in a 2-turn mile and one-sixteenth Laurel optional claiming race. Between that race and his romping win, he finished third, 6 lengths behind #7 Shackqueenking going one mile at the same level optional claiming race. Exotics.

6. EXCELLORATOR (MCMAHON/CRUZ) - 6/1

This son of Kentucky Derby winner Orb brings a 3-race win streak into the Private Terms. He won a maiden $50k claiming race, a $50k optional claiming race and a $62,5k optional claiming race in his last 3 starts. The first two triumphs were at Aqueduct and the last at Laurel. They were all sprint races and runner-up in the most recent start came back to win at the same level next out. Excellorator was claimed out of his most recent race by 16% winning trainer Hugh McMahon who is 25% first off the claim. Can the colt continue his winning ways and deliver a determined closing kick going around two turns? He’s unbeaten on fast dirt, with another win on a muddy Aqueduct oval, and he’s even been in the money in two of three sprint starts at Woodbine over a synthetic surface. Exotics.

7. SHACKQUEENKING (G. CAPUANO/ROSALES) - 5/1

This son of Shackleford also tried the Gr. 3 Withers at Aqueduct in his last start. He didn’t fare as well as #5 Royal Number. This guy will appreciate returning to Laurel where he has won 2 of 5 races and never been worse than third. He also has a two turn stakes win at Laurel on the day after Christmas and was third in the 7-furlong Spectacular Bid in January before his nearly 20 length Withers disappointment at a mile and one-eighth. #2 Maythehorsebwithu finished 2 lengths in front of him in the Spectacular Bid. Shackqueenking will race with Lasix for the first time Saturday, suggesting he may have bled in the Gr. 3 Withers. He actually defeated #5 Royal Number by 6 lengths going one mile in December. Exotics.

BOTTOM LINE

#2 Maythehorsebwithu is the sharpest tool in this shed and ought to get the job done. Those seeking to boost payoffs ought to use the top choice in exactas with #5 Royal Number, #6 Excellorator and #7 Shackqueenking.

BEAT THE HOST CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

The Beat the Host Championship is Saturday and qualified participants don’t need to do a thing except to pick as many winners as possible. They’ll be playing for one of seven coveted tournament seats.

The top prize--entry into the 2022 Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship ($6,000 value)--will go to the player who earns the most based on $5 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 competition races. Finishers in second through seventh positions will earn seats in either the Florida or Santa Anita Derby tournaments ($1,500 value each).

Competition races will be posted by Friday, 5 pm ET.

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:50 AM

Jon White's Rebel Stakes Selections, Plus Derby Strikes Return

March 10, 2021 | By Jon White

With my selections last week, I tried to beat the favorite in both the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and Grade III Gotham Stakes. I was vindicated in my approach when the favorite did not win either race. But, darn it, my top pick also did not win.

Candy Man Rocket was sent away as the 8-5 favorite in last Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. He finished 11th in the field of 12. My top pick, Hidden Stash, ran second at 3-1. Helium won in a 15-1 upset.

Highly Motivated was favored in last Saturday’s Gotham at slightly less than even money. He finished third in the field of eight. My top pick, Freedom Fighter, ran fourth at 2-1. Weyburn was victorious in a 46-1 shocker while making his first 2021 start. Crowded Trade, coming off a maiden win at first asking, lost by a scant nose at 5-1.

Weyburn and Crowded Trade showed up in the Gotham only after an allowance race that had been preferred for them failed to fill.

Life Is Good was my top pick in last Saturday’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. He won by eight lengths as the 1-2 favorite.

In late January, I began making selections in terms of this country’s races offering points toward a starting berth in the Grade I, $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Of the 12 such races, I have picked the winner in seven of them, as noted below:

Date Race (Selection) Finish, $2 win payoff if applicable

01-30-21 Holy Bull (Greatest Honour) WON, $7.60
01-30-21 Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit), WON, $4.00
02-06-21 Sam F. Davis (Candy Man Rocket), WON, $8.20
02-06-21 Withers (Donegal Bay), finished 7th
02-13-21 Risen Star (Senor Buscador), finished 5th
02-13-21 El Camino Real Derby (Rombauer), WON, $4.40
02-26-21 Battaglia Memorial (Gretzky the Great), finished 3rd
02-27-21 Southwest (Essential Quality), WON, $3.80
02-27-21 Fountain of Youth (Greatest Honor), WON, $4.00
03-06-21 Gotham (Freedom Fighter), finished 4th
03-06-21 Tampa Bay Derby (Hidden Stash), finished 2nd
03-06-21 Life Is Good, WON, $3.00

There is just one race this Saturday offering Kentucky Derby points. It is the Grade II, $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, which will reward the first four finishers with 50-20-10-5 points toward the 1 1/4-mile Run for the Roses.

REBEL HAS ATTRACTED FIELD OF EIGHT

My selections for the 1 1/16-mile Rebel are below:

1. Concert Tour
2. Caddo River
3. Keepmeinmind
4. Hozier

Caddo River ranks No. 4 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. Concert Tour is No. 6. Keepmeinmind is No. 9.

Eight are scheduled to do battle in the Rebel. Concert Tour goes into the race for trainer Bob Baffert quite similarly to the Baffert-trained Nadal last year.

Nadal won a six-furlong maiden race by 3 3/4 lengths as a 6-5 favorite last year on Jan. 19 at Santa Anita in his first career start. The Kentucky-bred Blame colt then won the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes by three-quarters of a length when shown on the tote board to be a 2-5 favorite on Feb. 9.

Concert Tour won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race by 3 1/2 lengths as an even-money favorite on Jan. 15 in his first career start. The Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt then won the San Vicente by a half-length as a 2-5 favorite.

After last year’s San Vicente, Baffert sent Nadal to Oaklawn for the Rebel. Nadal won the Rebel on a sloppy track by three-quarters of a length.

Following this year’s San Vicente, Baffert has sent Concert Tour to Oaklawn for the Rebel.

In his final recorded workout prior to the Rebel, Nadal was clocked in a bullet :59.60 for five furlongs. It was the best of 58 works at that distance on Santa Anita’s main track that morning.

In Concert Tour’s final recorded workout before the Rebel, he was timed in a bullet 1:11.40 for six furlongs. It was the best of 11 works at the distance on Santa Anita’s main track that morning.

I picked Nadal to win the 2020 Rebel. He did not let me down. Concert Tour is my top pick in the 2021 Rebel. We shall see if he comes through or he lets me down.

I have the utmost respect for Caddo River, as evidenced by the fact that I currently have him ranked higher than Concert Tour on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.

Trained by Brad Cox, Caddo River lost his first two races. The Kentucky-bred Hard Spun colt then won a one-mile maiden race by 9 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 15, followed by a 10 1/4-length victory in Oaklawn Park’s one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22.

Keepmeinmind certainly is a Rebel entrant to keep in mind. As a maiden, he finished second in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity last Oct. 3 and third in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 6. Essential Quality won both races en route to being voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male of 2020.

In Keepmeinmind’s final 2020 start, he earned his maiden diploma by winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Keeneland for trainer Robertino Diodoro.

Baffert had hoped to run Hozier in an allowance race at Santa Anita. When that race didn’t fill, Baffert decided to have him join Concert Tour in the Rebel.

Will Hozier be like Weyburn and Crowded Trade and finish first or second in a graded stakes race when running in that after an allowance race failed to fill?

Hozier was unveiled at Santa Anita on Jan. 15. He finished fourth, 15 lengths behind Concert Tour. Hozier then showed dramatic improvement to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance race by 1 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Feb. 15.

Hozier worked four furlongs in a bullet :47.40 last Saturday. It was the fastest of 58 works at that distance on Santa Anita’s main track that morning.

LIFE IS GOOD NEW NO. 1 ON MY DERBY TOP 10

Life Is Good moves into the top spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week following last Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in which he won by a sizable margin and received a marvelous Beyer Speed Figure.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Life Is Good
2. Essential Quality
3. Greatest Honour
4. Caddo River
5. Mandaloun
6. Concert Tour
7. Medina Spirit
8. Hot Rod Charlie
9. Keepmeinmind
10. Spielberg

After Life Is Good kicked off his racing career with a 9 1/2-length victory at Del Mar last Nov. 27, some wondered if he also would be able to win going farther.

In his next start, Life Is Good did indeed succeed going farther. He won Santa Anita’s one-mile Sham Stakes by three-quarters of a length on Jan. 2. But the smaller margin of victory led some to wonder if going farther than one mile would prove to be a problem for the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt.

Last Saturday, Life Is Good demonstrated that 1 1/16 miles is not even close to being a limit for him in terms of distance. Annihilating his foes in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes, he won by eight lengths.

“Life Is Good, breaking from the rail, used his natural speed to open a clear lead into the first turn, and his six rivals never had a chance,” Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman wrote. “He drew clear through the lane while drifting out, yet still stopped the timer in 1:42.18 for 1 1/16 miles, a time that compares favorably with the 1:43.86 recorded by his older stablemate, Mastering, when winning an allowance race earlier on the card on the fast main track.”

The fractions were :23.63, :46.83, 1:10.55 and 1:35.46. Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin pointed out that even though Life Is Good “was on cruise control, he still went the three-quarters in 1:10 2/5, which was two full seconds than [older horses] ran in the Big ’Cap” on the same card. The six-furlong fraction in the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita Handicap was 1:12.26.

“What was noteworthy about this race was that he was setting quick fractions while seemingly doing it under control, not acting like a runaway freight train as in his debut or his similarly headstrong effort in the Sham,” Privman also wrote regarding Life Is Good’s San Felipe. “In the two months since the Sham, Life Is Good has been trained to not blast off.”

Life Is Good and Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith drifted all the way out to about the 10 path during the stretch run of the San Felipe. How dominant was Life Is Good? Smith speculated that if the colt had run straight, he might have won by 15.

Nevertheless, any way you slice it, drifting out that much in the stretch is not a good thing. Smith attributed the drifting to Life Is Good seeing the big screen in the infield, which is not on when he trains in the morning. Life Is Good has never exhibited such behavior in the a.m. Jockey-turned-television broadcaster Richard Migliore said that if seeing the big screen was indeed responsible for Life Is Good drifting out, then why did he continue to drift out well after he had gone past the big screen?

One person who does not seem concerned that Life Is Good didn’t run straight down the lane last Saturday is Baffert. Even before the race, according to Baffert, the supremely talented 3-year-old did not exactly act like a seasoned pro. While Life Is Good was on his way to the paddock, he balked at first when he saw a bunch of people.

Baffert is quick to remind everyone that Authentic acted very greenly early on in his career. When Authentic won the Sham by 7 3/4 lengths, he ran such an erratic course down the lane that he nearly hit the inside rail at one point. But by the end of the year, Authentic had won the Grade I Kentucky Derby and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic. Not only was he voted an Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male, he was elected 2020 Horse of the Year.

In Life Is Good’s first two stakes races, he has run quite a bit faster than Authentic did in the same two races.

Authentic’s final time in the one-mile Sham was 1:37.57. Life Is Good completed the distance in 1:36.63.

When Authentic won the San Felipe by 2 1/2 lengths, his final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.56. Life Is Good stepped the distance in 1:42.18.

Authentic received a 90 Beyer in the Sham, a 98 in the San Felipe.

Life Is Good was credited with a 101 Beyer in the Sham, a 107 in the San Felipe. Those are the two-highest Beyers posted by a 3-year-old so far in 2021.

Below are the eight-best Beyer Speed Figures recorded this year by a 3-year-old, male or female:

Beyer Winner (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

107 Life Is Good (won San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 6)
101 Life Is Good (won Sham at Santa Anita on Jan. 2)
99 Medina Spirit (2nd Sham at Santa Anita on Jan. 2)
98 Mandaloun (won Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13)
97 Proxy (2nd Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13)
96 Dream Shake (won maiden race at Santa Anita on Feb. 7)
96 Midnight Bourbon (3rd Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13)
96 Essential Quality (won Southwest at Oaklawn on Feb. 27)

LIFE IS GOOD FAVORED AGAIN IN FUTURE WAGER

In Pool 1 of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which closed on Nov. 29, Life Is Good was the 5-1 favorite among the 22 individual horses. Essential Quality was the second choice at 8-1.

In Pool 2 of the KDFW, which closed on Jan. 24, Life Is Good was the 7-1 favorite among the 23 individual horses. Essential Quality again was the 8-1 second choice.

In Pool 3 of the KDFW, which closed on Feb. 14, Life Is Good again was the 7-1 favorite and Essential Quality the 8-1 second choice among the 23 individual horses.

In Pool 4 of the KDFW, which closed last Sunday, Life Is Good was hammered down to 2-1 favoritism after his lopsided San Felipe triumph. Essential Quality was the 5-1 second choice.

Below are the final odds for Pool 4 of the 2021 KDFW:

2-1 Life Is Good
5-1 Essential Quality
6-1 Greatest Honour
7-1 “All Other 3-Year-Old Males”
16-1 Caddo River
17-1 Concert Tour
17-1 Mandaloun
29-1 Collaborate
29-1 Prevalence
30-1 Keepmeinmind
36-1 Highly Motivated
39-1 Medina Spirit
41-1 Proxy
42-1 Risk Taking
52-1 Midnight Bourbon
53-1 Hot Rod Charlie
63-1 Spielberg
71-1 Candy Man Rocket
71-1 Dream Shake
79-1 The Great One
84-1 Freedom Fighter
94-1 Roman Centurian
109-1 Rombauer
146-1 Hush of a Storm

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Idol moved onto the Top 10 at No. 4 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll following his win in last Saturday’s Grade I Santa Anita Handicap. Next-to-last early in the field of seven, he rallied to prevail by a half-length at odds of 5-1. It was his first stakes victory. Joel Rosario rode the 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Curlin colt for trainer Richard Baltas.

Baltas was emotional after the race in that he has an appreciation for the rich history of the Santa Anita Handicap, a race he has fond memories of witnessing as a teenager in the 1970s. He especially recalls watching Vigors, “The White Tornado,” storm to a come-from-behind win in the 1978 Big ’Cap.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 370 Charlatan (24)
2. 343 Monomoy Girl (14)
3. 291 Knicks Go
4. 175 Idol
5. 150 Mystic Guide (1)
6. 148 Swiss Skydiver
7. 147 Maxfield
8. 137 Colonel Liam
9. 78 Gamine
10. 51 Jesus’ Team

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 369 Essential Quality (20)
2. 360 Life Is Good (17)
3. 293 Greatest Honour (1)
4. 240 Mandaloun (1)
5. 174 Medina Spirit
6. 158 Caddo River
7. 123 Concert Tour
8. 87 Keepmeinmind
9. 72 Helium
10. 65 Risk Taking

MY DERBY STRIKES RETURN!

After a one-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, my Derby Strikes System is back in 2021.

I developed my Derby Strikes System back in 1999. This system at that time consisted of nine categories. When a horse did not qualify in one of the nine categories, the horse received a strike.

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby once were very popular. A “Derby rule” meant a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Run for the Roses. However, through the years, many of the “Derby rules” were broken. This caused their popularity to wane.

I think what has distinguished my Derby Strikes System from any single “Derby rule” is the Derby Strikes System is considerably more comprehensive. The Derby Strikes System is an amalgamation of factors that attempts to ascertain the chances a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives. It is the marriage of the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that might well make the strikes system better than a “Derby rule,” per se.

A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. As a result, when the race last year was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to COVID-19, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable.

But now that the Kentucky Derby is returning to the first Saturday in May, the Derby Strikes System likewise returns.

DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM REVAMPED FOR 2021

Because the Derby Strikes System, as it was originally constructed back in 1999, seemed to work well through the years, I resisted making any changes to it. One reason for my reluctance to tinker with it is what happened with the Dosage Index.

“The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred racehorses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping races, to quantify a horse’s ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run,” according to Wikipedia. “It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse’s pedigree.”

I spent part of 1981 working as an editor/handicapper in the Los Angeles office of the Daily Racing Form. My “post position” in that office was not far from the desk of breeding expert Leon Rasmussen.

The Dosage Index, again quoting from Wikipedia, “attracted little interest from the general public until 1981, when Daily Racing Form breeding columnist Leon Rasmussen published a new version of Dosage developed by an American scientist and horse owner, Steven A. Roman, Ph.D., in his analysis of the upcoming Kentucky Derby for that year. The new approach, which was more accessible to owners, breeders and handicappers was supported by solid statistical data, rapidly caught on, and the term ‘Dosage Index’ has been a fixture in the lexicon of horse racing ever since. The details of Dosage methodology have been summarized in Dr. Roman’s book entitled ‘Dosage: Pedigree & Performance’ published in 2002.”

The Dosage Index is compiled by noting the presence of certain influential sires, known as chefs-de-race, in the first four generations of a horse’s pedigree. Based on what distances the progeny of the sires so designated excelled in during their racing careers, each chef-de-race is placed in one or two of the following categories, or aptitudinal groups: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid or Professional.

In the 1980s, a horse’s Dosage Index became a big deal in the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby. It needed to be 4.00 or lower. That’s because retroactive research conducted when the Dosage Index first become popular in 1981 revealed that no horse at that time having a Dosage Index higher than 4.00 had won the Kentucky Derby since 1929 (a year chosen because by then the number of available chefs-de-race on which to base the figures was thought to have reached a critical mass).

But then the Dosage Index took a major hit in the credibility department in 1991. When Strike the Gold won the Kentucky Derby, his Dosage Index was 9.00. Alydar, who had not been standing at stud all that long, had not yet been accorded chef-de-race status by Dr. Roman. That was the primary reason Strike the Gold’s Dosage Index was so high at the time that he won the roses.

If having a Kentucky Derby winner with a Dosage Index so much higher than 4.00 wasn’t bad enough, when Alydar subsequently -- and appropriately -- was made a chef-de-race, it significantly lowered Strike the Gold’s Dosage Index. Pedigreequery.com lists a horse’s Dosage Index in addition to his or her pedigree. If you go to that website, you will see that Strike the Gold’s Dosage Index (or DI) currently is listed as 2.60.

Dosage critics howled that Strike the Gold’s Dosage Index was retroactively lowered from 9.00 to 2.60 in order to keep Dosage relevant vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby.

“Alydar was eventually designated a Classic chef-de-race because of the continuing success of his offspring going long,” Dick Powell wrote for TwinSpires.com in 2019. But “the ‘objection’ sign went up in the minds of many who accused Dr. Steven Roman of force feeding the classification to make Strike the Gold’s DI below 4.00.”

The damage to the credibility to the Dosage Index when Strike the Gold’s DI was lowered from 9.00 to 2.60 was a major reason why I was reluctant to make any retroactive changes to the Derby Strike System.

But I have decided that the time has come to make a logical and appropriate tweak to the system for 2021. This is in reaction to the significant change that horses just do not race as much as they did when the Derby Strikes System was introduced in 1999.

One of the original categories was that a horse needed to have made at least six lifetime starts prior to the Kentucky Derby. It is abundantly clear that this no longer is relevant.

From 1973 through 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus was the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby having previously made fewer than six lifetime starts. He had made five starts going into the Kentucky Derby.

But from 2006 through 2019, seven horses won the Kentucky Derby having previously made fewer than six lifetime starts. They were Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Animal Kingdom (2011), I’ll Have Another (2012), American Pharoah (2015), Always Dreaming (2017) and Justify (2018).

Clearly, what once had been a strike no longer was a strike.

And so the category in the Derby Strikes System specifying that a horse needs to have made at least six lifetime starts prior to the Kentucky Derby has been eliminated. The revamped Derby Strikes System for 2021 now consists of eight categories.

One of the eight categories is a horse needs to have raced as a 2-year-old to avoid getting a strike. This remains a category even though Justify in 2018 became the first Kentucky Derby winner who did not race at 2 since Apollo in 1882.

The fact that only one horse since 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 does not come anywhere close to this particular category needing to be discarded.

NUMBER OF STRIKES FOR HELIUM

It is not until a horse’s next race will be the Kentucky Derby that a horse’s number of strikes can be determined. Because Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has said it is likely that the next race for Grade II Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium will be the Kentucky Derby, a determination can be made concerning Helium's strikes situation.

If Helium’s connections do decide to run him again before the first Saturday in May, his number of strikes then will need to be recalculated.

Helium gets only one strike. His lone strike comes in Category 5, which states that a horse needs to have finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby to avoid getting a strike. The farthest Helium has raced to date is the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby.

Thunder Gulch, the sire of Helium’s dam, won the 1995 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes.

In last Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby, Helium rallied from 10th in the field of 12 to win by three-quarters of a length. The Kentucky-bred Ironicus colt recorded a career-best 84 Beyer Speed Figure.

Helium won last Saturday despite it being his first 2021 start, his first race around two turns and his first race on dirt.

The Derby Strikes System can’t go back further than 1973 because that was the year in which stakes races in the U.S. were first graded. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

According to the revamped Derby Strikes System, not counting the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (39 out of 47) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018) and Country House (2019).

Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Many years after I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999, racing enthusiast Ryan Stillman suggested that I should take a look at the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners prior to 1999. Again, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I could not go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because, as mentioned earlier, two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Based on the revamped Derby Strikes System, the strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are below:

2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3*
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first, disqualified and placed 17th

These are the eight categories in my revamped Derby Strikes System after having eliminated the category requiring a horse to have made six lifetime starts prior to the Kentucky Derby:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 06:50 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 Daniel's Magic He didn't get an easy go of things last out when tapping on the brakes and then getting in tight in the lane. He kicked on well after the trouble and should hit hard here.
#11 Chasing Fame The two turf sprint efforts were both really good, and he's a late-finishing threat if he can get back to something like those tries after the dull recent runs.
#6 Today Matters Cutback player probably needs a bit more pace than he's going to get here, but the price should be right to try to get him in the mix underneath.
Race Summary Daniel's Magic owns a last-out run that was really sharp, and he showed some grit when finishing with enthusiasm after a troubled trip.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Jolie Olimpica Her company lines have been full of tough, repeating winners, and she caught another one last out in Charmaine's Mia. Perfect outside draw for a spying trip with the boys.
#3 Bob and Jackie Forward route player may have a go for it on the cutback, and he was just second best behind next-out Grade I winner Hit the Road.
#2 Gregorian Chant Big effort last time out would probably keep him in the mix if he can repeat it, but I'm not sold that he will at what is probably an underlaid price.
Race Summary Jolie Olimpica should be in line for a great trip while facing the boys, and she has run into tough customers like Charmaine's Mia and Rushing Fall in a couple of her more recent losses.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#9 Caerulean He was a good fit with similar back in December, and he doesn't meet a field with a ton of early pace. His forward ability might put him in the mix from the start.
#4 First Prez Rallied well to land his only turf sprint try when racing without blinkers, and the hood coming off today gives him some chance to get back to that effort -- one that would keep him in the frame here.
#5 Bench Judge Looks like the one to beat, but he might be up against it just a bit from a race shape perspective, and he's probably going to get bet here.
Race Summary Caerulean should get a great trip near a modest enough pace, and while he's the one for me, I'll be using longshot First Prez on the tickets, too, in hopes that a turf sprint without blinkers will wake him up.