Wednesday 3/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (224257) Lazio at (224258) Bayern Munich
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 17, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Total Over 3.5 (-115)
Big total on Wednesday night over in Germany but hard to argue against it as both teams seem to be shipping and scoring goals for fun right now.
Bayern have averaged a colossal 3.67 goals per game in the Allianz Arena this season, and arguably that wasn't even them hitting form, as they really seem to be doing right now.
At the back however they've been inconsistent, failing to keep a clean sheet in seven straight competitive home matches in Munich, and in Correa and Immobile, Lazio definitely have the talent to exploit that.
But like Bayern, Lazio have also been poor at the back recently, giving up 2+ goals in four straight competitive games.
This looks like an Overs fest on Wednesday so take Lazio/Bayern to go Over the total in what should be an electric back and forth game from start to finish.
PLAY: OVER 3.5

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Tony Finn

Event: (537) Sacramento Kings at (538) Washington Wizards
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: March 17, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 245.5 (-110)
The Washington Wizards host the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. The Wiz are currently in the midst of a four-game losing streak, while the Kings fell to the Charlotte Hornets on Monday night.
Injury Reports
Wizards: Raul Neto (Ribs, Questionable); Davis Bertans (Calf and Knee, Questionable); Ish Smith (Quad, Out); Thomas Bryant (Knee, Out)
Kings: Chimezie Metu (Wrist, Out); Marvin Bagley III (Hand, Out); Robert Woodard II (Hamstring, Game-Time Decision); Hassan Whiteside (Healthy and Safety Protocol, Game-Time Decision)
Neither franchise pay heed to or concern themselves with defensive stops. Sacramento is the deeper team in terms of offensive threats. Rather than venture into the land of deciding which side of the handicap to park for this East vs. West contest, an investment to Over the largest Total of this 2020-21 Association campaign is the Wednesday night free play.

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Bobby Ligs

Event: (535) Toronto Raptors at (536) Detroit Pistons
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: March 17, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Under 220.5 (-110)

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (35) Vancouver Canucks at (36) Ottawa Senators
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 17, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: 1P Total Over 1.5 (-125)

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Bryan Leonard

Event: (41) St. Louis Blues at (42) Los Angeles Kings
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 17, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Total Over 5.5 (-110)
41 St Louis at Los Angeles
In 5x5 G+-/60 we see St Louis ranked 18th and LA 19th. When looking at the advanced stats in xG/60 we find the Blues -0.09 and the Kings -0.41.
On the Power Play in G+-/60 the rankings show St Louis 9th and LA 4th. In xG/60 the Blues are +6.11 and the Kings +7.06.
On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 St Louis ranks 26th, and Los Angeles 11th. Using advanced metrics of xG/60 the Blues are -7.14 and the Kings -6.15.
The Kings are better than many feel but they have been dealing with goalie injuries. Normally we would back the underdog here at a nice price, but instead let’s look to play this game over. LA should have a really nice advantage on the power play, but you never know how many times they will be put into that position.
PLAY OVER

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Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Power Rankings

March 16, 2021

Updated regularly, these rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 - LIFE IS GOOD (B. Baffert) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($274,200). Derby Points: 60
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $525,000Y; second foal of placed dam; second, third, and fourth dams were listed stakes winners; unbeaten in three gate-to-wire starts, a 6.5F maiden at Del Mar in November (by nine and one-half lengths), a three-quarter length victory in the 8F Sham S.-G3 in early January, and then most recently in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 (by eight widening lengths from stable mate Medina Spirit) despite drifting out towards the middle of the track in the final furlong yet earning a career top 107 Beyer speed figure and looking every bit the most naturally gifted runner in his class; likely to have his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in the 9F Santa Anita Derby April 3; still somewhat green and a bit unpredictable; tends to want to pull early and seems to have developed a style as a dyed-in-the-wool front-runner; has the ability to switch off on the lead and then re-break but to some observers his antics in his most recent start raise a red flag; as a son of North America’s premier stallion Into Mischief has the makings of a brilliant sprinter/middle distance performer but there will always be some doubt as to his ability to successfully handle a classic distance until he actually does so.
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2 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 125 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($1,335,144). Derby points: 40
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Southwest S.-G3, finished first.
Next start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior), racing wide throughout but accelerating impressively in the final furlong; had secured a 2020 Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old colt division to complete an unbeaten juvenile campaign in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie; previously won his 6F debut at Churchill Downs by four lengths in September (rallying from seven and one-half lengths back) and then registering a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland after pressing slow fractions; speed figures are strong and have risen with each of his four career victories; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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3 - GREATEST HONOUR (C. McGaughey III) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-2 ($351,940). Derby Points: 60
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby S.-G1S
Latest workout: March 13, Payson Park, 4f, :50.1b

The skinny: Was entered but withdrawn from 2019 Keeneland fall sale, second foal, dam unplaced half-sister to four SW’s including Rags to Riches and Jazil (both winners of Belmont S.-G1) and to BC Marathon S.-G1 winner Man of Iron; second dam Broodmare of the Year Better than Honour; notoriously lazy and unremarkable in morning workouts and took four races to break his maiden but has been unbeaten in his last three starts (all at Gulfstream Park) including the 8.5F Holy Bull S.-G3 (by five and three-quarter lengths from Tarantino) in January and then the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by one and one-half lengths from Drain the Clock) the following month; not particular fast on speed figures though he’s never taken a backward move through six career starts; has been visually quite impressive rallying wide over a main track that traditionally plays against that style; pedigree suggests he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase; likely to have his final Triple Crown prep race in the Florida Derby-G1 in late March; campaign is reminiscent of Orb, who took the same path when winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby-G1 for this trainer.
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4 - CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($756,600). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5FF Rebel S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby.-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in three career starts, most recently a dominating gate-to-wire victory in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park (by four and one-quarter lengths from stable mate Hozier), quickly establishing the pace from his outside draw and then, after disposing of favored Caddo River, drawing clear under mild urging to win with plenty left; earned solid but not great 94 Beyer speed figure; previously successful with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 (by one-half length from stable mate Freedom Fighter) after winning his debut three weeks earlier in 6F maiden score in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests a classic distance could be within his capabilities; has so far followed the identical pattern/schedule as B. Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; likely to use the Arkansas Derby-G1 (April 10) as his final springboard to the Kentucky Derby-G1 three weeks later; based purely on speed figures still has plenty to prove but must be taken seriously as a major player for the spring classics.
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5 – MANDALOUN (B. Cox) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 4-3-10-1 ($351,252). Derby Points: 52
Last start: Feb. 13, 2021, Fair Grounds, 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 30, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby S.-G2
Latest workout: March 13, Fair Grounds, 5f, 1:00.3b

The skinny: Juddmonte Farm homebred, dam multiple graded stakes winner in Ireland; victorious in three of four career starts, including the 9F Risen Star S.-G2 in mid-February (by one and one-quarter lengths from Proxy); previously suffered only career defeat in 8.5F Lecomte S.-G3 (by 1 length when third to Midnight Bourbon and Proxy) after being wide throughout; speed figures have risen significantly with each outing; employs an ideal pace-stalking style; should be able to handle the Derby’s 10F classic distance; scheduled to have final Triple Crown prep in 9.5F Louisiana Derby in late March; progressing smoothly for Eclipse Award winning trainer though the level of competition he’s faced so far may be a tad suspect.
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6 - MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($165,200). Derby points: 48
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, San Felipe S.-G3, finished second
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); genuine and consistent though no match for stable mate (and top-ranked) Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; previously had displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; before that finished second (beaten three quarters of a length while 13 clear of the rest) to Life Is Good in 8F Sham S.-G3 in January; speed figures are legitimate; pedigree suggests he’ll do better as the distances increase; clearly a much better prospect that originally judged and could easily return to winning form in his final Kentucky Derby prep next month if he can be allowed to get out from under his superior stable mate’s vast shadow.
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7 - HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 120 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 6-1-1-02($395,700). Derby points: 10
Last start: Jan. 30, 2021, Santa Anita, 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3, finished third
Next start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2
Latest workout: March 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; raced five times during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; numbers are solid; Preakness winning sire helps in the stamina department but he’s no sure thing to be comfortable at a classic distance.
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8 – RISK TAKING (C. Brown) – 120 Lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0 ($182,530). Derby points: 10
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 13, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:02b TT

The skinny: $240,000Y, dam multiple stakes placed on grass; best runners from his female family also preferred turf; unplaced in first two career starts during the fall of his juvenile campaign but has vastly improved since, breaking his maiden over 9F at Aqueduct on dirt in December and then stepping forward again over that same track and distance when winning the Withers S.-G3 in early February (by three and three-quarter lengths from Overtook after producing an extended, grinding late bid; speed figures are headed in the right direction but with some work still to be done; room for further improvement and clearly will be suited by 10F and farther; seems likely to produce another forward move in the 9F Wood Memorial-G2 in early April in a race that he’ll very likely be favored.
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9 - COLLABORATE (S. Joseph, Jr) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Quiet Temper, by Quiet American
Lifetime record: 2-1-0-0 ($27,400). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park; Maiden special weight, finished first
Next start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby S.-G1S
Latest workout: March 14, Gulfstream Park, 4f, :47b

The skinny: $600,000Y, fourth foal, dam multiple stakes winner including Fair Grounds Oaks-G2; black type winners in second or third dams but fourth dam is Blue Hen mare Blitey; off slowly when a close fifth as favorite in 6F debut over sloppy track at Gulfstream Park in early February but left that form far behind when graduating three weeks later 8F maiden (by 12 and one-half lengths from Bennyfromthebronx), establishing the pace in hand and then continuing under cruise control to lengthen at will while earning a strong 90 Beyer speed figure; has since recorded a bullet 4F workout (:47b) that was the fastest of 51 for the distance; has an easy, relaxed stride and gives the impression he’ll handle a distance of ground without issue; slated to return in the 9F Florida eerby-G1 March 26 to determine his viability for the classics.
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10 - PREVALENCE (B. Walsh) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($52,800). Derby points: 0
Last start: March 11, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8F allowance, finished first
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Libreta (by Giralomo); dam winless in eight starts but is a full-sister to top class middle distance turf G1 winner Better Lucky; was forced to miss his intended second career start in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 Feb. 27 after spiking a fever but reappeared March 11 in an 8F six-runner first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park and was successful at 10 cents on the dollar (by three lengths from Southern Passage) with a perfect, stalking trip while earning a moderate speed figure in a performance that can best be described as workmanlike; was previously far more impressive winning his debut by eight and one-half lengths in 7F maiden in January when pressing the pace in hand and then kicking clear without ever being asked;; bred to stay at least a middle distance and potentially farther; with no Derby points will need to step forward considerably in what will have to be his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in his next yet-to-be-determined start (Bluegrass S.-G2 April 3?); remains an exciting prospect but finds himself behind the 8-ball with still plenty to prove; designing a schedule with the Preakness S,-G1 as the main goal might prove to be a more prudent plan.
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11 - ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($96,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Santa Anita, Pasadena S., finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h

The skinny: $650,00Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in two starts, both on grass, most recently when drawing clear with a good display of late speed to win the listed 8F Pasadena S. in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) before being hard to pull up and galloping out full of run; previously had debuted over 6F on grass and registered a one and three-quarter length victory with a good number despite being eased up in the final stages while appearing to toy with his opposition; pedigree suggests he’ll handle any surface and be able to cope with a classic distance though he appears to be a better move on turf than on the main track according to his workouts; will get his opportunity on dirt in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April; at which time his Triple Crown prospects will become apparent; still has plenty to prove but remains an exciting prospect, at the very least on grass.
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12 – HELLIUM (J. Sadler) – 117 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the pace and from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and reportedly will now have two months in between races and train up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to insure he makes the Derby field at the expense of providing him the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.

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Also eligible: Proxy (M. Stidham);Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Known Agenda (T. Pletcher); Highly Motivated (C. Brown)Weyburn (J. Jerkins); Rombauer (M. McCarthy);Spielberg (B. Baffert))Bears Watching (C. McGaughey III); Crowded Trade (C. Brown);Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro); Caddo River (B. Cox); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Hozier (B. Baffert).
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

GG Stats: Pick 6 Solved Solo for $128K

March 16, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

Congrats to the lone ticket holder in the March 13 Rainbow 6 jackpot at Golden Gate, taking down the $128,230.84 entire pool … The Rainbow 6 carryover to open the new racing week will be $3,912 … 2021 El Camino Real Derby winner Rombauer is scheduled to make his next start April 3 in either the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Santa Anita Derby … 2020 California Oaks winner Dynasty of Her Own scored her second straight allowance win of the season March 14 and is now a perfect 5-for-5 at Golden Gate Fields.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 was postponed, resulting in a 2-week-old $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 19, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:48 ET
Leg C – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:25 ET

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 27% winners. The factor Win % showed a whopping $63 profit if you bet $2 win on each top choice in that category for the week.

Speed Last Race
Win %
Last Turn Time

Trends Last Week

-- Leading trainer Jonathan Wong turned it up last week at 11: 4-3-1, but all 4 winners were favorites (8: 4-2-1 with chalk). The barn wins 51% at the meet with the chalk.

-- Trainer Victor Trujillo posted an 8: 3-2-0 record that boasted $9 and $15 winners and an 11-1 runner-up. He was 2-for-2 with jockey Evin Roman.

-- Trainer William Delia’s 5: 3-0-1 mark included $68 bomber I’m A Rockette along with 4-5 and 5-2 shots. He was 2-for-3 with Santos Rivera in the saddle, including the longshot score. Delia has won with 3 of his 5 route runners at the meet.

-- Trainer Ellen Jackson went 2-for-3 with limited strikes last week, including a $29 winner. Her barn is now 12: 6-1-0 at GG since Feb. 21 and a whopping $3.64 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Jockey Evin Roman dominated the riding standings at 15: 7-3-1. That’s 47% wins and 67% in the exacta for a $1.41 ROI for every $1 bet. He was 7: 4-2-1 aboard favorites.

-- Favorites went 15-for-32 for the second straight week (47%) and are winning 49% overall since Feb. 26.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MJC Stats: Sheldon Russell Continues Roll

March 16, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Laurel Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Laurel Park by betting with the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

The Rainbow 6 will have a $15,617 carryover heading into the racing week … March 13 Private Terms Stakes 1-2 finishers Shackled Love and Maythehorsebewithu are expected to re-match if all goes well between now and the April 17 $125,000 Federico Tesio Stakes … Congrats to 2020 Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver on her successful 4-year-old debut, capturing the March 13 Grade 1 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita with ease … 22-year-old Panamanian native Alexander Chavez won with his first US mount on March 13 at Laurel.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 was postponed, resulting in a 2-week-old $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 19, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:48 ET
Leg C – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:25 ET

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Laurel, each posting at least 38% wins. Trainer Meet was a key factor for the second straight week.

Lifetime Earnings
Earnings Distance
Trainer Meet

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Sheldon Russell rolled to an 11: 5-4-0 record during the shortened, 2-day racing week. He’s now 11 for his last 23 over the past 2 weeks.

-- Jockey Victor Carrasco went 9: 3-1-2 with a $53 longshot winner along the way. He won a pair of stakes on Saturday’s Good Samaritan Day card and was 2-for-2 in 7-furlong sprints.

-- Trainer Brittany Russell didn’t miss with a 6: 3-3-0 mark with 4 of those runners bet to favoritism. She did have a 3-1 winner and 5-1 runner-up as well.

-- Trainer Emanuel Geralis went 2-for-3 with limited bids and has 4 wins from his last 5 starters dating back to Feb. 7.

-- Favorites were a strong 18: 8-4-3 on the week (44% win, 67% in exacta) and are 18-for-43 the past 2 weeks (42%).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GP Stats: Gaffalione Takes Charge

March 16, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

The Rainbow 6 returns Wednesday with a $315,073 carryover ($600,000-guaranteed pool) … Sprinters are in the spotlight this Saturday with the rescheduled Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie as well as the Texas Glitter and Melody of Colors for turf dashers ... In Florida Derby news, impressive maiden winner Collaborate is on course for his stakes debut after Sunday’s bullet workout for Saffie Joseph Jr. Also note Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano will ride Papetu in the Florida Derby … Gulfstream announced its $3.5 million Spring-Summer stakes schedule this week, featuring the Grade 2 Princess Rooney and Grade 3 Smile Sprint on July 3.

Stronach 5
Last week’s Stronach 5 was postponed, resulting in a 2-week-old $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 19, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:48 ET
Leg C – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:25 ET

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 44% or greater win rate and showing a flat-bet profit. In fact, the app was on fire at Gulfstream last week with 41% winners overall and a +$24 profit if you bet $2 win on every top choice.

Avg. Speed Last 3
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
Jockey Current Year

Trends Last Week

-- Favorites dominated the action at 52: 26-11-8 overall, boasting 50% wins and 71% in the exacta. Jockey Jose Ortiz was most reliable on the chalk at 5: 4-1-0.

-- Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was 24: 10-4-5 on the weekdays before sitting out suspension dates Saturday and Sunday. Of those 10 wins, 8 were backed at 5-2 or less and he was 2-for-2 for trainer Armando de la Cerda.

-- Jockey Tyler Gaffalione had perhaps his best week of the meet, going 35: 12-6-5. He went 11: 6-3-1 aboard favorites. He rode winners for 10 different trainers, doubling up with Fernando Abreu and Christophe Clement. Six of those wins came Saturday/Sunday in the absence of Irad Ortiz Jr.

-- Trainer Todd Pletcher was on point at 5: 3-0-0, securing returns of $5, $7 and $10. He was 2-for-3 with maidens on the week and snapped a peculiar 1-for-21 skid with maidens at GP since mid-February.

-- Trainer Kelly Breen went 5: 2-1-0 and popped a $34 winner among those. The barn may be turning a corner from its 2-for-34 performance at the meet since the start of February until last week.

-- Trainer Wesley Ward saw a pre-Keeneland perk up with a 4: 2-0-2 week. He’s been almost unbeatable at 5: 4-1-0 in maiden dashes at 5 furlongs since mid-February.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SA Stats: App Tabs 48% Winners

March 16, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Santa Anita Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Southern California. And be sure to support “The Great Race Place” by betting with the official betting app of Santa Anita Park.

Headlines

Friday’s Rainbow 6 carryover will be $181,922 … Stakes features this week are Saturday’s Grade 3 San Luis Rey for turf marathoners and Sunday’s Sensational Star for turf sprinters ... Triple Tap, half-brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, debuted a sharp winner March 13 at Santa Anita over 7 furlongs. Bob Baffert provided no firm future plan in the post-race … Congrats to 2020 Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver on her successful 4-year-old debut, capturing the March 13 Grade 1 Beholder Mile with ease … Santa Anita announced last week that racing will be cancelled April 9 and 16, and there will be no turf racing April 10 and 11 to help protect the grass course.

Stronach 5
Last week’s Stronach 5 was postponed, resulting in a 2-week-old $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 19, will be:
Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:48 ET
Leg C – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:25 ET

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Santa Anita Park last week, each winning at a 40% or greater win rate and showing a flat-bet profit. The app picked a whopping 48% winners on top last week at Santa Anita, the top-performing track for the algorithm during that time.

Avg. Speed Last 3
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
Jockey Current Year

Trends Last Week

-- Favorites dominated the going at 25: 14-3-3, producing 56% wins. Turf favorites were strongest at 13: 8-2-1 (62% wins, 77% in exacta).

-- Jockey Flavien Prat continued his roll at 25: 9-5-3. That’s 45% wins and 70% in the exacta, providing a $1.23 ROI for every $1 bet. Prat won with 8 different trainers, doubling up with Richard Baltas.

-- Apprentice jockey Emily Ellingwood had a strong 5: 2-1-0 record, riding 9-2 and 6-1 winners for trainer Ryan Hanson both at 7 furlongs.

-- Trainer Ryan Hanson was exacta perfection at 5: 2-3-0 on the week. All 5 starters came in dirt sprints, and both winners were over 7 furlongs.

-- Assistant trainer Leandro Moro went 8: 3-3-0 as the program trainer for suspended Doug O’Neill. Winners paid $7, $8 and $21 while the barn added a 9-1 runner-up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 Moss Boss He has been very good going this one-turn local trip, and his form is darkened by some poor two-turn runs. Think he's the right one to beat the likely chalk. Worth a small play
#3 Aktham He can be a handful here after a decent debut -- he showed pace that day and was in the mix well into the lane. He'll cut back an eighth of a mile for this, but he can probably run these off their feet at a short price.
#1 Kukulkan No one is going to mistake this guy for his six-time Grade I winning Mexican-bred counterpart by the same name, but this guy actually fits okay here with his best. His local debut produced a competitive effort, but still, it's tough to get too serious about a runner making his 39th start.
Race Summary Aktham is the clear one to beat at a short price, and Moss Boss might offer something a bit better on the board. He can spy the early pace set by the chalk, and at something like the 3/1 ML price, he's worth a shot.

Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Cool Enough She has proven a good fit with the locals, and she'll come up in price after a frontrunning score for half this price. She produced a really good run last out in her first try for the barn, so let's see if she can hold that form with better.
#1 Cool Mo She's the most likely winner here, but she has been stuck at this kind of level for quite some time, and she gets bet every time she heads to post. Lean to playing against her on principle.
#4 Devilish Beauty She tends to land underneath shares with this kind of company, but she's not impossible on top if the top pair bring anything shy of their 'A-game'
Race Summary Cool Enough has posted both lifetime scores while wearing blinkers, and she took a big step forward when the new barn put them back on last out. I'll give her a chance to run back to that on the hike.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Port More Finisher might come alive again late here, and both of his last two races seem competitive with this bunch. Another double-digit price would be appealing in the top couple spots.
#9 Kyle No serious threat at 4/5 in the local debut, but he's got better recent company lines than anyone in here, and he's likely to be tough from close range.
#3 Cash for the Soul He owns a couple of local wins, and the December layoff isn't a real concern with a win off the layoff here last summer. He should be in the mix from the go.
Race Summary Port More is an interesting price player off a couple of efforts that put him right in the frame with these -- guessing he's overlooked again tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dover Downs - Race #12
Picks Notes
#4 MY SUGAR DADDY Shuffled on turn, some recovery after winner fled the scene.
#3 STONE FIRE HANOVER Finished 3 lengths ahead of top one off first-over trip.
#7 RUFFY'S DESIRE Finished second in his last two starts at this level from better posts.
Race Summary My Sugar Daddy was shuffled in the third quarter, ranged up, and raced evenly but willingly in the stretch behind a 9-to-5 runaway. He can turn the tables on morning-line favorite Stone Fire Hanover. Play 4-3 and 4-7 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 WEATHER HEATHER Chased odds-on fave as pace slowed in the middle half, ran second.
#5 CHIPSEY K Invader was slowed by pace against 'Heather,' earned improved speed figure.
#8 WENDY'S HOPE Showed pulse in seasonal debut, could make gimmick wagers pay.
Race Summary Weather Heather validated her runner-up finish at 29-1 odds with another one after chasing the 3-to-5 favorite around the track. She could be the target today as she tries for her first win of the year. Play a 2/5,8/ALL trifecta.

Northfield Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 VICTOR HIC Buried lesser two back, useful try from post 8 last week, steps up.
#5 ST LADS GURU Second start after layoff, can use speed well with Merriman.
#2 ROCK ON DOC Ranged up from second tier, flattened out, winless long time.
Race Summary Victor Hic saved ground in fifth from outside post, picked up cover into the backstretch, but shifted to the rail for the stretch drive after the cover stalled. He just missed second behind the 4-to-5 winner. Play 4-2 and 4-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Hera Won three races back, which was last time she was against Florida-breds; didn't fire vs. better in her last two and is well spotted here.
#3 Daddy's Joy Has been right there in four starts and was caught late in her last one; has speed to burn.
#8 Copper Goes for her third straight win and was claimed by Orseno last time out; has won from on and off the pace.
Race Summary Hera tired much tougher and never threatened in her last two but she's now back to friendlier environs on the state-bred scene.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Focus Group Has been vs. stronger competition and nothing has panned out since a closing third in the G1 Northern Dancer at Woodbine. Should be able to run well vs. this company.
#6 Cowtown Rallied for third last time and will have to bring some late punch to the party; has been in some tough races and looks good enough to get a piece of this one.
#11 Cibolian Makes his first since November and broke his maiden going nine furlongs at Churchill; bred to run long on grass.
Race Summary Focus Group has tried some tough hombres and can make the best of the class drop; one to hold off.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Lullula Solid in both career starts and was claimed by Maker last time -- rarely, if ever, a bad thing.
#2 Sunshine City Was claimed by Dibona last time when she ran fourth on the main track; lost by a half-length on turf two back and fits in this spot.
#7 Por Que No Was an easy winner at this level and takes on some fillies that come off maiden-breaking wins in impressive fashion; will be a short price.
Race Summary Lullula comes off a big effort and is ready for roll for Maker, who is good off the claim, and she gets the riding services of Gaffalione, who has won 10 of 34.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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Mar 17 '21, 10:00 AM in 1h
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