Saturday 3/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358413

    #31
    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



    Sam Houston - Race #6 - Post: 8:25pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 80 Groovy S.

    Rating:

    #5 LUCKY PROMISE (ML=6/1)
    #9 BOBBY BRINKLEY (ML=5/2)
    #2 STONE CAFE (ML=4/1)


    LUCKY PROMISE - Gustafson brings this colt back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his colt is on top of his game. Have to give this colt a chance. Ran a solid race last race out within the last thirty days. Finished fifth at Sam Houston last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 right here in this race, he looks like a possible contender. You have to expect a better performance out of this colt in today's contest. He put in a good effort on the backstretch on March 13th only to run evenly in the stretch drive. BOBBY BRINKLEY - The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this event. Comes out of a last race against 'open' company on Feb 26th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. Don't often see a positive return on investment like +45. This jockey/handler duo has done well together over the last year. STONE CAFE - This gelding is in nice form, having run a nice race on February 27th, finishing first. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. Gelding is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SILENCE D'ORO (ML=3/1), #3 DUST EM (ML=9/2),

    SILENCE D'ORO - Doubtful that the fig he garnered on Feb 25th will hold up in this clash. DUST EM - Mediocre speed rating in the last race at Sam Houston at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's event.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS: #5 LUCKY PROMISE is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,5]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [2,5,9] Total Cost: $6
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [2,5,9] with [2,5,9] with [2,5,7,8,9] with [2,5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358413

      #32
      Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

      Always check program numbers.
      Odds shown are morning line odds.




      Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 59

      FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

      RECOMMENDED CHOICES
      # 2 EDISON FIRE 9/2
      # 3 FLASHY RICHIE 9/5
      # 6 OFF TO THE BEACH 4/1
      EDISON FIRE looks to be the wager in here. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this bunch. Looks formidable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt route races recently. FLASHY RICHIE - Is hard not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been decent - 51 avg - of late. With a reliable rider who has won at a competitive 36 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. OFF TO THE BEACH - Should be given a shot in this event if only for the very strong speed fig garnered in the last race. Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone.
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358413

        #33
        Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds



        03/20/21, FG, Race 3, 12.16 CT
        03/20/21,FG,3,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources). FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Their Last 3 Starts).
        . . . .
        Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
        After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.
        100.0000 5 Gold Punch 5/1 Hernandez C J Arceneaux Victor T 295 37.63 1.36/$1
        098.8026 2 Bourbon St Tappin 7/2 Mena M Johnston Edward J. 480 35.63 1.20/$1
        097.7151 1 Ranch Badge 9/2 Graham J Hodges James E. SFEL 295 37.63 1.36/$1
        096.4770 7 Micajah 4/1 Saez G Calhoun W. Bret 348 28.74 1.28/$1
        095.9640 3 Bunkie's Song 20/1 Hernandez. Jr. B J Landry Allen W 295 37.63 1.36/$1
        095.5192 12 Touchdown Joe 12/1 Beschizza A Noel Dane 295 37.63 1.36/$1
        095.4365 8 Coffee County 8/1 Murrill M Cuccia L. Jay C 295 37.63 1.36/$1
        093.9115 10 Cryptorithm 12/1 Riquelme J Meaux Jason H. 348 28.74 1.28/$1
        093.4726 9 Paynted Lover 20/1 Kellenberger K Delany Sarah 348 28.74 1.28/$1
        093.4129 4 Creole Bay 20/1 Marquez C L Chavis Gerald 348 28.74 1.28/$1
        091.3908 11 Inthealy 20/1 Green A Glover Tracey 348 28.74 1.28/$1
        091.0462 6 Big Merrill 20/1 Geroux F Scherer Gary M. J 295 37.63 1.36/$1
        Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 32.71, ROI 0.99/$1
        Rating gap to 2nd horse -1.1974
        [Category]Condition
        [AllDirt]LastRaceWasSprintWithSprintToday
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