Service Plays Saturday 3/27/21

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Kirby Maxwell

60 Dime

Oregon st

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TOTAL SPORTS SOLUTIONS Wagner site

10 Syracuse/Houston under
10 La Tech

[rocky57]

H&H Sports

CBB (NIT)
Triple Dime - Colorado State +4.5

[rocky57]

Thom Cunningham - Vegasinsider (Adds)

CBB
Houston -6.5

[rocky57]

Kevin Rogers - Vegasinsider

CBB
Loyola-Chicago -6.5
Arkansas -11.5

[rocky57]

Mid-American Sports (Raiderman)

CBB - Loyola-Chicago -6.5

[rocky57]

Stats Analytics Sports - Red Hot NBA 81-58 (58.3%) +33.95 units

NBA - 1* San Antonio Spurs -128 (Moneyline)

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Pointwise phone service
1 Syracuse
3 Oral Roberts
4 Oregon State
5 Baylor

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Marco D'Angelo

5* Houston -6.5

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Master Sports

NBA
3.5* #537/538 New York Knicks/Milwaukee Bucks under 224

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Mike McClure

UFC 260 top picks

Sean O'Malley
Alonzo Menifield
Michał Oleksiejczuk

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Godfatherlocks march 27th picks

ncaa basketball
3 top rated 2000* picks



*** top rated 2000 unit picks ***



#1 - loyola chicago ramblers -7


#2 - villanova wildcats +7.5


#3 - houston cougars -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Wise

UFC

Francis Ngannou (-125) vs. Stipe Miocic (+105): Miocic by decision (+450)

This is a really tough spot to be in for the average gambler. Miocic is perennially underrated despite being the most successful heavyweight champ in promotional history. In fact, he's likely to be an underdog for a fourth time in five fights, with the lone time he's been favored over that span being the first Daniel Cormier bout, where he was knocked out in the first round. Despite that, he's been as smart and skilled a champion as the division has ever seen. Yet, he still enters as an underdog. Ngannou's power remains his ticket to victory and the title -- and I don't mind taking the chance with him to win via knockout or TKO, as those odds are better than straight moneyline. But the smart money has moved this closer to pick'em for a reason, and Miocic laid the framework for how to tame the beast in 2018. Worries about wear and tear are real, but Miocic has had just four fights in the last four years. Miocic should keep distance with his jab before taking Ngannou down and testing his grappling skills once again.

Vicente Luque -260 vs. Tyron Woodley +210: Luque by TKO (+275)

The lines on this fight have raised quite a few eyebrows. Luque is a known finisher with 17 stoppages in 19 career victories. He has not faced a ton of world-beaters in his career -- and admittedly has struggled when stepping up in competition as two of his losses in UFC have come against title contenders in Stephen Thompson and Leon Edwards. Now, one could argue that facing a former champion would be a step up in competition. The problem is, Woodley has not looked like a champion or contender of late, with three straight losses. But this will be his first step down in opponent, as Luque ranks No. 10 in the division. While the moneyline odds would suggest to you that Woodley is a huge underdog here, the props tell a much different story. Luque is +275 to win by KO/TKO and +150 to win on points. The fight to go the distance is -150 for Yes and +110 for No. While it might feel like a real risk to go against the odds that are being laid out right now, this feels like an inequity to be exploited while value remains on the table in a fighter reaching the prime of his career in Luque.

Sean O'Malley -330 vs. Thomas Almeida +250: O'Malley by TKO (+150)

This fight may give me more pause if it was in 2015, but it's really tough not to like O'Malley to get a stoppage here. Almeida has really struggled since a 2016 TKO of Albert Morales and even tried to move up to 145 pounds in 2020 to reclaim some of his previous stature. Now, he's coming back to 135 pounds to face O'Malley in what can only be described as a get-right fight. O'Malley lost to Marlon Vera last time out, but he has leaned on a freak injury as the reason for that. It's the second time he's suffered an injury like that in the octagon. As long as he can avoid hurting his feet before getting the finish, "Suga" should be a solid play.

Miranda Maverick (-165) vs. Gillian Robertson (+140): Robertson by decision (+350)

This is a pretty sizable step up in competition for Maverick, who has been a dominant force to start her career. With only one UFC fight on her resume, Maverick is getting some sizable respect with six stoppages in eight wins. However, Robertson is a really high-level fighter who just can't seem to get past the best in her weight class. This feels like the right step up for Maverick, but it also feels like a spot where Robertson reminds everyone that she's among the 10 best in the world at 125 pounds. Also, a friendly reminder that the majority of results at women's strawweight and flyweight end in decision and the odds here (-150) to reach the scorecards are lower than normal.

Khama Worthy -130 vs. Jamie Mullarkey +110: Pick: Worthy by TKO (+225)

Worthy leapt onto the scene two years ago when he stepped in on short notice and scored a TKO over Devonte Smith as one of the biggest underdogs in promotional history. He's been a bit of a fan favorite ever since, despite a setback in September, when he was knocked out by Ottman Azaitar in the first round. But he's getting a lower level of opponent here in Mullarkey, who himself has lost two in a row to start his UFC career. Despite his decent record and tons of finishes overseas, I put more faith in Worthy being able to find the chin and stop this fight more than anything.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ian Parker

UFC

Francis Ngannou (-125) vs. Stipe Miocic (+105): Miocic

Stipe Miocic, arguably the most prolific heavyweight in UFC history, puts his title on the line against the scariest man in the division in Francis Ngannou. Ngannou is on a four-fight win streak, with all of his victories coming by first-round stoppage. In his last fight, we saw Ngannou rush forward with aggressive, powerful strikes that put Jairzinho Rozenstruik to sleep in 20 seconds in the first round. Against a fighter like Rozenstruik who isn't known for his wrestling that strategy may work, but against a well-rounded champion like Miocic, I don't see that being a smart move. Miocic is a great boxer who just so happens to have exceptional wrestling. In their first fight, we saw the champ weather an early storm from Ngannou. Once he recovered, he wrestled and grinded out a decision victory. Miocic will use his crisp boxing to set up takedowns and eventually get the fight to the floor. Ngannou will be so concerned with the takedowns that we may see him hesitate with his striking. Can the challenger land a knockout punch in round one? Absolutely. However, Miocic is a smart fighter who knows the clear path to victory. He will stay at range, use leg kicks to take away the power of Ngannou and then eventually work his takedowns and put Ngannou on his back. Look for the champ's wrestling to again be key in winning this rematch. Also, I have strong lean to the Over 1.5 rounds (-135 at William Hill).

Vicente Luque (-260) vs. Tyron Woodley (+220): Luque

Tyron Woodley is looking to get back in the win column after dropping his last three fights. We have seen the former champion decline drastically since losing the belt to Kamaru Usman. Once a dominant force in the division, we have seen Woodley get dominated by Gilbert Burns and finished via TKO by Colby Covington. On Saturday, he takes on the well-rounded Vincente Luque. In order for Woodley to win, he is going to have to utilize his wrestling or land that powerful overhand right that has knocked out many opponents. For Luque, this is the big-name fight he has been looking to get for a long time. After losing a unanimous decision to Stephen Thompson, Luque has bounced back with a win over Niko Price and a stoppage win over Randy Brown. Luque is an excellent striker with an elite ground game. As long as he can avoid that overhand right from Woodley and keep the fight standing, this is Luque's fight to win. I think his volume striking and leg kicks will take away Woodley's power, and Luque can punch his way to victory.

Sean O'Malley (-300) vs. Thomas Almeida (+250): O'Malley

Thomas Almeida has lost his last three fights and, unfortunately, his challenge on Saturday night will not get any easier. Once considered a big-time prospect, Almeida has failed to get back in the win column dating back to 2016.. Almeida is the type of striker who will eat a few punches in order to deliver a power one. Sean O'Malley will gladly oblige. He was undefeated until his last fight against Chito Vera, where he felt victim to the calf kick. O'Malley will be looking to bounce back in a big way against Almeida. He will be the better and more creative striker who is very difficult to hit. For that reason, I believe he will be the winner. O'Malley will utilize his kicks to keep Almeida at range, eventually leading to that knockout blow.

Khama Worthy (-135) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+115): Worthy

This fight has fireworks written all over it. Two fighters who love to strike and are always looking to finish, Jamie Mullarkey and Khama Worthy will be looking to bounce back from their last fights and get back in the win column. I see this fight stylistically in favor of Worthy. As we saw in his fight against Luis Pena, Worthy showed us that he is not just a striker, but that he can take the fight anywhere as he got a submission victory in Round 3. Worthy carries a ton of power along with being a technical striker. At 34, he will be the more experienced fighter with more tools to get the win.

Miranda Maverick (-165) vs. Gillian Robertson (+145): Maverick

Gillian Robertson is a seasoned veteran who will be entering the cage on the last fight on her UFC contract. She will be looking to show the promotion's brass that she belongs in the UFC as she tries to derail the hype train formally known as Miranda Maverick. Although young, Maverick has shown a high-level fight IQ in her first UFC outing, with a win via doctor's stoppage. Maverick has a tough task in Robertson in her second fight in the octagon. If the fight stays on the feet, this will be not only Maverick's fight to win, but to shine. I believe her takedown defense and athletic ability will help her dictate where she wants the fight to go. Expect Maverick to use her striking and vicious elbows to carry her to victory.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-220) vs. Jared Gooden (+190): Nurmagomedov

In a classic striker versus grappler matchup, we have both fighters coming off losses as they enter the cage. In his first UFC fight, we saw Abubakar Nurmagomedov out-strike his opponent and take him down with ease. Unfortunately, he made one mistake and paid for it by losing via triangle choke. I don't see the same mistake happening again, as Jared Gooden is not a submission specialist like Nurmagomedov's last opponent. Gooden is a good striker with a solid chin, but leaves himself open to get taken down. Expect Nurmagomedov to use his striking early to set up the takedown and go to work from there.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

UFC

Francis Ngannou (-125) vs. Stipe Miocic (+105): Miocic by decision

Ngannou has the most power of any MMA fighter in the world. He can knock out anybody and that is going to be his path to victory Saturday. People love knockouts, so that is why we are seeing Ngannou as the favorite even though he is one-dimensional. He can win with one big bomb at any juncture, but I don't see how he wins if he doesn't find that shot. He is not a high-volume striker and fatigue will likely be an issue if he picks up the pace. Miocic will be up on volume, and he will also have the advantage on the mat. Plus, he can get a knockout of his own. I think Miocic should be the favorite because he has more ways to win, and I think he wins this fight more than 50 percent of the time.

Vicente Luque (-260) vs. Tyron Woodley (+220): Luque by decision

I am going to pick most people over Woodley at this point in his career. The former champ doesn't wrestle anymore, and he just backs up to the fence hoping to land that knockout shot. In his last three outingd, he has been out-struck 302-96 in significant strikes in 74 minutes. That isn't going to cut it. Give me Luque to win this fight on volume in a fight that I think mainly plays out on the feet.

Sean O'Malley (-300) vs. Thomas Almeida (+250): O'Malley by stoppage

This is a tricky one because we never know what to expect with O'Malley, and Almeida didn't look like the same guy in his last fight after a long layoff. O'Malley has some real toughness issues and maybe a hard calf kick can make him quit. I would be picking Almeida if I expected the guy who I saw a couple of years ago. I will take O'Malley to get the win because he should be the faster fighter who is throwing more volume and he has the better chance at a knockout.

Miranda Maverick (-165) vs. Gillian Robertson (+145): Maverick by decision

Robertson is one of the better submission artists in the sport. If she can get into a dominant position on the mat, then she might submit Maverick. I think Maverick is the better wrestler and she is solid on the mat. I don't trust that Robertson can get this fight to the mat and I also like Maverick's striking more. I think the line looks about right on this one and I will take Maverick to win two or three rounds.

Khama Worthy (-135) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+115): Worthy by TKO

I think Worthy is the better striker who will be throwing more volume and he is also more likely to get the knockout. Mullarkey should be looking to get this fight to the mat and that is his best path to victory. I don't know that he can keep it there long enough to win rounds, so I would still take Worthy on the scorecards but give me him by stoppage.

Alonzo Menifield (-270) vs. Fabio Cherant (+230): Menifield by stoppage

Cherant is making his UFC debut as a late-notice replacement and he is going against one of the scariest strikers in the division. He is going to look to close the distance here and grab Menifield's neck. He is good with chokes and he is live for a guillotine submission. However, Menifield should look to keep distance and just land the big bomb to end this fight.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-220) vs. Jared Gooden (+190): Gooden by TKO

Nurmagomedov is going to try to wet-blanket Gooden and win this fight on the mat. He isn't a bad striker, but I think he would need a knockout to win the striking because I like Gooden's overall striking game more. I also think Gooden can stuff takedowns, but he could just get mauled for the entirety of the fight. I am going to take Gooden to get the upset with a knockout.

Michał Oleksiejczuk (-150) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+130): Oleksiejczuk by decision

I think Oleksiejczuk is the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. He has not looked good in his last two fights and I think that is why the line is pretty low, but I see some value and I think he is the better striker and grappler. Bukauskas might have more power and he is probably more likely to get a stoppage, but give me Oleksiejczuk to take this on the scorecards.

Omar Morales (-180) vs. Shane Young (+160): Young by decision

I give Morales the wrestling advantage, but he doesn't look to wrestle nearly as much as he should. Both guys are good strikers, but Young gets the striking edge because of his pace. He is coming off a knockout loss, so maybe Morales can test his chin again, but I think this one goes to the judges and I see Young getting his hand raised by being the more active fighter and landing more shots.

Marc-Andre Barriault (-110) vs. Abu Azaitar (-110): Azaitar by TKO

Barriault looked the best he ever has in his last fight, then failed a test for banned substances and was suspended. So, I don't know how much weight to give that performance. I think Azaitar is the more powerful striker, and he is probably more likely to land takedowns as well. I think it will be a back-and-forth fight on the feet. I think Azaitar is more dangerous though so he is the pick.