Wednesday 3/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 07:24 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: WGC Dell Match Play Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: March 24, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Jon Rahm to Win Dell Match Play (+1400)
WGC Dell Match Play
Outright Winner
The Rahm play for me this week is all about his path to the semifinal. He is in a group with Sebastian Munoz, Shane Lowry and Ryan Palmer, none of which I see giving him a problem, then in the round of 16 he would be facing the winner of what I think is the weakest group headlined by Berger and English who have each withdrawn the last two events with injuries. Up next would most likely be either Schauffele or McIlroy and based on current form, Rahm is playing better than both.
Rahm is available at 14-1 right now or you can take him at +110 to win his group which he will be a heavy favorite in each of his three matchups during the group stage.
For a longshot group winner, I like the lefty, Brian Harman. He is fresh off a T-3 at the Players and took last week off at the Honda to rest for this event. While cut streaks don’t matter in this event, he has made the cut in 13 of 14 events this year showcasing his extended form.
Most importantly though, Harman’s best part of his game is his putting and putting is the name of the game in match play. Match play is all about momentum and nothing is more deflating than seeing your opponent miss the fairway, miss the green, and then make a 15 footer for par while you miss a 10 foot birdie putt. Harman has made the quarterfinals before and his current form is worth playing on at +380.
TAKE JON RAHM +1400 & TAKE BRIAN HARMAN TO WIN GROUP 10 +380

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 07:24 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Ukraine at France
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 24, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total OVER 2.5 (-120)
World Cup Qualifying
In the Nations League last fall, both teams were in the top league known as League A but Ukraine struggled quite a bit and were relegated down to League B. They actually pulled off two decent results at home beating Switzerland and very impressively beating Spain 1-0 which was remarkable considering they were outshot 21-3 and that match was the only one that finished Under 2.5 Goals.
Preceding that 5-1 Over record in the Nations league, Ukraine went 5-3 Over this total in Euro qualifying including 3-1 on the road.
Overall Ukraine has played to six straight Overs on the road averaging 3.5 goals per game.
France should be able to take care of business here at home in this match as they did in two of their three home games in the Nations League, winning 4-2 over Sweden and 4-2 over Croatia while playing to a 0-0 draw against reigning Nations league champions Portugal.
In Euro qualifying, they had a 6-4 O-U record averaging 3.1 goals per game including 4-1 at home with a higher 3.4 goals per game average.
Overall France has finished Over the total in seven of their last nine home games averaging 3.9 goals per game.
I’m going to back all those trends to continue on Wednesday.
TAKE OVER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to 2.75

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 07:24 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (225233) Montenegro at (225234) Latvia
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 24, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Montenegro -132
Montenegro look decent value to get the win here on Wednesday against a really sub-par Latvian side.
Latvia have registered just one win from their last twelve at home, and incredibly have scored just twice across their last nine games in Riga also, as their offensive issues continue to be a major obstacle for them in international competition.
Montenegro, while not exactly setting the world alight themselves, have at least been competent, losing just one of their last nine internationals, and have scored 2+ away goals in their last three straight WCQ games as well.
Expect Montenegro to secure a narrow win here in Riga on Wednesday, and the correct score Montenegro to win 1-0 is also a decent price at +450.
PLAY: MONTENEGRO ML -132

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:33 AM

Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings

March 23, 2021

Updated regularly, these rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($1,335,144). Derby points: 40
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Southwest S.-G3, finished first.
Next start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2
Latest workout: March 20, Fair Grounds, 5f, :59b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior), racing wide throughout but accelerating impressively in the final furlong; had secured a 2020 Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old colt division to complete an unbeaten juvenile campaign in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie; previously won his 6F debut at Churchill Downs by four lengths in September (rallying from seven and one-half lengths back) and then registering a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland after pressing slow fractions; speed figures are strong and have risen with each of his four career victories; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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2 - GREATEST HONOUR (C. McGaughey III) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-2 ($351,940). Derby Points: 60
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby S.-G1S
Latest workout: March 21, Payson Park, 4f, :50.2b

The skinny: Was entered but withdrawn from 2019 Keeneland fall sale, second foal, dam unplaced half-sister to four SW’s including Rags to Riches and Jazil (both winners of Belmont S.-G1) and to BC Marathon S.-G1 winner Man of Iron; second dam Broodmare of the Year Better than Honour; notoriously lazy and unremarkable in morning workouts and took four races to break his maiden but has been unbeaten in his last three starts (all at Gulfstream Park) including the 8.5F Holy Bull S.-G3 (by five and three-quarter lengths from Tarantino) in January and then the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by one and one-half lengths from Drain the Clock) the following month; not particular fast on speed figures though he’s never taken a backward move through six career starts; has been visually quite impressive rallying wide over a main track that traditionally plays against that style; pedigree suggests he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase; likely to have his final Triple Crown prep race in the Florida Derby-G1 in late March; campaign is reminiscent of Orb, who took the same path when winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby-G1 for this trainer.
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3 - CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($756,600). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5FF Rebel S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby.-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in three career starts, most recently a dominating gate-to-wire victory in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park (by four and one-quarter lengths from stable mate Hozier), quickly establishing the pace from his outside draw and then, after disposing of favored Caddo River, drawing clear under mild urging to win with plenty left; earned solid but not great 94 Beyer speed figure; previously successful with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 (by one-half length from stable mate Freedom Fighter) after winning his debut three weeks earlier in 6F maiden score in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests a classic distance could be within his capabilities; has so far followed the identical pattern/schedule as B. Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; likely to use the Arkansas Derby-G1 (April 10) as his final springboard to the Kentucky Derby-G1 three weeks later; based purely on speed figures still has plenty to prove but must be taken seriously as a major player for the spring classics.
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4 - HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register two length score (from Midnight Bourbon) while establishing NTW (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 - MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($165,200). Derby points: 48
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, San Felipe S.-G3, finished second
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 22, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); genuine and consistent though no match for stable mate (and top-ranked) Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; reportedly exited the race with an entrapped epiglottis which has since been rectified; previously had displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; before that finished second (beaten three-quarters of a length while 13 clear of the rest) to Life Is Good in 8F Sham S.-G3 in January; speed figures are legitimate; pedigree suggests he’ll do better as the distances increase; clearly a much better prospect that originally judged and could easily return to winning form in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 now that Life Is Good will not start and has been removed from Triple Crown consideration.
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6 – RISK TAKING (C. Brown) – 120 Lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0 ($182,530). Derby points: 10
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 21, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:01.4b TT

The skinny: $240,000Y, dam multiple stakes placed on grass; best runners from his female family also preferred turf; unplaced in first two career starts during the fall of his juvenile campaign but has vastly improved since, breaking his maiden over 9F at Aqueduct on dirt in December and then stepping forward again over that same track and distance when winning the Withers S.-G3 in early February (by three and three-quarter lengths from Overtook after producing an extended, grinding late bid); speed figures are headed in the right direction but with some work still to be done; room for further improvement and clearly will be suited by 10F and farther; seems likely to produce another forward move in the 9F Wood Memorial-G2 in early April in a race that he’ll very likely be favored.
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7 - COLLABORATE (S. Joseph, Jr) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Quiet Temper, by Quiet American
Lifetime record: 2-1-0-0 ($27,400). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park; Maiden special weight, finished first
Next start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby S.-G1S
Latest workout: March 21, Gulfstream Park, 5f, 1:01b

The skinny: $600,000Y, fourth foal, dam multiple stakes winner including Fair Grounds Oaks-G2; black type winners in second or third dams while the fourth dam is Blue Hen mare Blitey; off slowly when a close fifth as favorite in 6F debut over sloppy track at Gulfstream Park in early February but left that form far behind when graduating three weeks later 8F maiden (by 12 and one-half lengths from Bennyfromthebronx), establishing the pace in hand and then continuing under cruise control to lengthen at will while earning a strong 90 Beyer speed figure; has since recorded a bullet 4F workout (:47b) that was the fastest of 51 for the distance; has an easy, relaxed stride and gives the impression he’ll handle a distance of ground without issue; slated to return in the 9F Florida eerby-G1 March 26 to determine his viability for the classics.
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8 - PREVALENCE (B. Walsh) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($52,800). Derby points: 0
Last start: March 11, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8F allowance, finished first
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: March 21, Palm Meadows, 4f, :49.2b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Libreta (by Giralomo); dam winless in eight starts but is a full-sister to top class middle distance turf G1 winner Better Lucky; was forced to miss his intended second career start in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 Feb. 27 after spiking a fever but reappeared March 11 in an 8F six-runner first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park and was successful at 10 cents on the dollar (by three lengths from Southern Passage) with a perfect, stalking trip while earning a moderate speed figure in a performance that can best be described as workmanlike; was previously far more impressive winning his debut by eight and one-half lengths in 7F maiden in January when pressing the pace in hand and then kicking clear without ever being asked;; bred to stay at least a middle distance and potentially farther; with no Derby points will need to step forward considerably in what will have to be his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in his next yet-to-be-determined start (Bluegrass S.-G2 April 3?); remains an exciting prospect but finds himself behind the 8-ball with still plenty to prove; designing a schedule with the Preakness S,-G1 as the main goal might prove to be a more prudent plan.
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9 - ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($96,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Santa Anita, Pasadena S., finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 22, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.2h

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in two starts, both on grass, most recently when drawing clear with a good display of late speed to win the listed 8F Pasadena S. in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) before being hard to pull up and galloping out full of run; previously had debuted over 6F on grass and registered a one and three-quarter length victory with a good number despite being eased up in the final stages while appearing to toy with his opposition; pedigree suggests he’ll handle any surface and be able to cope with a classic distance though he appears to be a better mover on turf than on the main track according to his workouts; will get his opportunity on dirt in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April; at which time his Triple Crown prospects will become apparent; still has plenty to prove but remains an exciting prospect, at the very least on grass.
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10 – HELLIUM (J. Sadler) – 117 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the pace and from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and reportedly will now have two months in between races and train up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field that actually providing him the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.

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Also eligible: Known Agenda (T. Pletcher); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Spielberg (B. Baffert); Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Highly Motivated (C. Brown); Weyburn (J. Jerkins); Rombauer (M. McCarthy); Crowded Trade (C. Brown); Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro); O Besos (G. Foley)
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Saintsgotrobbed He stretches around two turns for the first time off the claim, and he was competitive with sprint allowance groups prior to being claimed last out. I like that he's protected, and the class move is a double-edged stat. Broberg is aces with this kind of riser at 25%, but he's just 1-for-13 -- or 8% -- when making this move at Fair Grounds over the last three years. I'm in at something close to the 8/1 ML price.
#1 Moonoverthebayou Faces his LA-bred counterparts for the first time in his career, and he's going to be a real handful here if he duplicates any of that form from the last six months. The one to beat.
#7 Mister Intuition He's a reliable type, but he doesn't have a really serious turn of foot. That said, the guy who beat him handily last out was back to win the Crescent City Derby here last weekend. Better since moving to the Desormeaux barn.
Race Summary Saintsgotrobbed goes off the claim for a barn that excels with these types, and a rare price may be offered on this guy. The front end seems like it's there for taking, and letting this guy roll early might give him the best chance of upsetting the favorite.

Fair Grounds - Race #5
Picks Notes
#12 Yankee Clipper He has shown the way in both of those recent races, and that kind of speed at this level is going to land him a graduation win soon.
#8 Antietam Road Finishing sprinters are never a sure thing to stretch out, but this guy has enough pedigree to get around two turns, and he should be able to get a good trip near the top.
#1 Muletrain Finished well to dead-heat with the top choice when they met last out, and this guy isn't completely exposed for a horse at this level with just four starts under his belt.
Race Summary Yankee Clipper's high draw is a bit of a concern, but he'll be going for the front and may be able to stick around just long enough to land this.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Moliere He has a couple of recent races that make him the clear one to beat, and he should be right up on what may be modest enough splits.
#7 Luck of the Draw He put together two nice scores in a row against LA-breds to earn this move into open allowance company, and he's not out of the question if he can bring his form with this better crew.
#2 New Eagle He has some back dirt form with cheaper that might stack up here, but he's tough to love with a ton of confidence after a dull try at this level on the turf last out.
Race Summary Moliere won't offer much by way of price in the win pool, but he should be tough to get past here. His recent running lines all stack up competitively, and he should get a dreamy trip just behind whatever pace there is.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:33 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Yonkers - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 MACMORRIS HANOVER Improved second in second start back, pocket trip in store.
#5 FULL RIGHTS Seeks third consecutive wire-to-wire victory at short price.
#2 RACEACE Steps up off win in second start for new barn.
Race Summary Macmorris Hanover makes his third start of the year, should sit a pocket trip and offers enough value to try and turn the tables on solid favorite Full Rights. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

Buffalo - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 TIME TO QUIT Classy 11yo snapped long winless drought two back, gets Morrill.
#5 LIMA MOONSHINE Blew stretch leads in 4 of his last 5 starts.
#3 SERIOUS GEORGE Late runners should benefit from ample pace flow.
Race Summary Time To Quit made a brief bid, only to flatten out off a second-over trip against better. He romped two starts back, gets Morrill and draws inside. Play 2-3 and 2-5 exactas.

Rosecroft - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 AIN'T NO SECRET Discount latest, looms as good value play in proven spot.
#6 ROLL ON MAMA Has speed, carried it to 8/1-2-4 record, one to beat.
#1 NOSEY BUGGA Failed to sustain first-over advance, draws rail.
Race Summary Aint No Secret, no threat from post 9 last week, remains eligible for same condition as easy victory two starts back. She was headed to victory February 9 when mishap occurred. Play a 5-6-ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:33 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Earth Has excellent speed and could get the overall edge on many of these by just getting the early lead; will be a good price and has enough speed to be worth the risk.
#7 Fully Loaded Always in the mix and will press throughout once again; rarely runs a bad one.
#5 Henry's World Does his best to get on the front end, and should be put a head in front, he can be tough to the end.
Race Summary Earth likely will be the value play here and is fast enough to throw down early with these; big player today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Bird Map Tired running longer vs. a much higher level and can get back to good form with this class drop down to a much more comfortable price.
#4 Gilded Lady Won her last two races, including a triumph over N2L company last time; has the speed to stay close from the beginning.
#4 Gasparlla Blasti Won two straight in easy fashion just prior to a fourth-place finish in her latest; has been in quick races and figures well here.
Race Summary Bird Map has taken on better company and is more suitable for this shorter distance.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Feature Creature Has been an excellent late mover and will fire her best shot against a fast pace; Lanerie will give this mare her best chance and will have here rolling.
#3 Jubiticaba Has good speed in longer turf races and will assume that position again; tired from going good fast early last time and might be able to save a little more for the end.
#5 Codrington Has a good closing move and can be closer to the front than some of the other late movers; can get a good run here.
Race Summary Feature Creature has a consistent and strong late kick and can make a huge run again; ready to get back to the winner's circle after running third last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:48 AM

Bob Baffert Makes Curlin Florida Derby Debut with Spielberg

March 23, 2021
From Gulfstream Park Press Release

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – A mix of talent, opportunity and timing has produced Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s first venture to Gulfstream Park for the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa.

Baffert, the most successful trainer in Triple Crown history, will make his debut Saturday in Gulfstream Park’s steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Spielberg, a chestnut son of Union Rags. Spielberg, who will be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano in the 70th Florida Derby, won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on Dec. 19. In his most recent start, Spielberg finished second to Essential Quality, the 2020 2-year-old male champion, in the Southwest (G3) on Feb. 27 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.

Based in Southern California, Baffert has recorded some important victories in his 21 starts at Gulfstream Park. Twenty-nine years ago, he picked up his first Breeders’ Cup win with Thirty Slews in the Sprint (G1). More recently, he has won two runnings of the Pegasus World Cup (G1).

Again this year, Baffert has a deep lineup of Kentucky Derby prospects vying for qualifying points for the May 1 Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. He said the Florida Derby, with its 170 qualifying points contested five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, fit his schedule. Though unbeaten San Felipe (G2) winner Life is Good will miss the Triple Crown while recovering from an injury that required surgery, Baffert has San Felipe runner-up Medina Spirit for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and the first two finishers in the Rebel (G2), Concert Tour and Hozier, for the Arkansas Derby (G1).

He opted to send Spielberg to South Florida, where he will face Greatest Honour, whose three victories over the track include the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Holy Bull (G3).

“I have all these horses and I’m going to separate them out,” Baffert said. “[Spielberg] ran well at Arkansas. Broke horribly, came on and ran second. He wasn’t going to beat the winner. We’ll take him down there [to Florida]. See how he ships down there and see how he stacks up. The California horses, I think, are pretty strong. Maybe I can get lucky if I can win or run second. That would be nice. But it’s a tough task. We’ll give it a try.”

The partnership of SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC and Robert E. Masterson purchased Spielberg for $1 million as a yearling as the 2019 Keeneland September sale. He developed nicely and Baffert sent him out for his first race on Aug. 8 at Del Mar. After that second-place finish, Baffert moved him into Grade 1 company, where he was second in the Del Mar Futurity and third as the favorite in the American Pharoah. He stepped back into a maiden race to capture his first win by a neck and has been in graded stakes since. The Florida Derby will be his ninth career start, the most for any of the horses expected to be entered for the 1 1/8 miles race.

Spielberg had problems at the start of his last two races, which left him far off the early pace and compromised his chances. He was bumped at the start of the Robert Lewis (G3) on Jan. 30 and ended up fourth. In the Southwest under Martin Garcia, he was not prepared when the gates opened.

Repeating his mantra, what he typically offers in his pre-race analysis, Baffert said, “They’ve got to get away. To me, it’s all about getting away. They’ve got to get away from there.” Baffert did say that Spielberg ran well in the Southwest after the poor start.

Through the years while amassing a record-tying six wins in the Kentucky Derby and a record 16 victories in the Triple Crown, Baffert has won prep races in New York, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico. He selected the Florida Derby for Spielberg because of its place on the calendar five weeks ahead of the Kentucky Derby, rather than four-week options.

Spielberg’s sire, Union Rags, was third as the favorite in the 2012 Florida Derby. He went on to capture the Belmont Stakes (G1) and is one of the 60 winners of Triple Crown races who have competed in the Florida Derby.

According to Equibase statistics, Baffert has a 4-4-2 record in his 21 starts, all in stakes races, at Gulfstream Park and has earned $12,362,950 in purse money. Each of the victories was in a Grade 1 race. Baffert won with his first Gulfstream runner, Thirty Slews in the 1992 Breeders’ Cup, and with his his most recent starter, Mucho Gusto in the 2020 Pegasus World Cup. He also won the 2001 Donn Handicap with Captain Steve and the inaugural Pegasus World Cup with Arrogate.

Prior to Arrogate’s victory in 2017, the trainer’s first Gulfstream starter in 10 years, Baffert reflected on Thirty Slews’ victory. He said it was “just like a fairy tale race for me,” with the first Thoroughbred he had purchased – for $30,000 – as he transitioned from training Quarter Horses.

“When he hit the wire, I was up there in the box and I thought that I had reached just the pinnacle of my career,” he said, laughing. “I thought, ‘Man, this is not going to get any better than this.’ I had just won a Breeders’ Cup Sprint. I was just jumping up and down.”

Post positions for the Florida Derby will be drawn Wednesday at 12:15 p.m.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:51 AM

Dubai World Cup Post Draw Reaction

March 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

A capacity field of 14 entered for Saturday’s 25th edition of the $12 million Dubai World Cup, including a quartet of American-based runners. The marquee, mile and one-quarter dirt contest tops a 9-race card simulcast internationally. Post time for the first race will be 7:45 a.m. ET with the Dubai World Cup slated for 12:50 p.m. ET.

Mystic Guide, winner of last month’s Grade 3 Razorback at Oaklawn and last summer’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, should go favored from post 6. He’s being offered in the international books around 5-2 odds in advance of the race. His 6-length Razorback romp put the Godolphin color-bearer on the fast track to Meydan, the track owned by his connections. He’ll compete under the flag of the United Arab Emirates while racing for New Orleans-based trainer Mike Stidham.

America’s other entrants include 2020 Grade 1 Preakness Stakes third-place finisher and 2021 Pegasus World Cup runner-up Jesus’ Team (post 9); Grade 2 Charles Town Classic champ and Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup fourth-place finisher Sleepy Eyes Todd (post 10); and Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes winner Title Ready (post 4).

2021 Dubai World Cup Field

1. Great Scot
2. Hypothetical
3. Chuwa Wizard
4. Title Ready
5. Military Law
6. Mystic Guide
7. Capezzano
8. The Great Collection
9. Jesus' Team
10. Sleepy Eyes Todd
11. Salute the Soldier
12. Magny Cours
13. Ajuste Fiscal
14. Gifts of Gold

The Meydan main track is a left-handed course like the US with just under a quarter-mile run into the clubhouse turn from the start, so starting positions should not be of major consequence.

None of the American entrants possess the kind of world-class early speed on dirt synonymous with US racing on the world stage. Sleepy Eyes Todd likely will show the most early pace interest, but is not the type of run-them-off-their-feet speed that often dissuades the international runners when faced with American dirt horses. That said, the Dubai World Cup could open up to the world cast. Note in its previous 24 runnings, US-based horses own 12 wins, the same total for the world challengers.

The international cast sprung wide open when the connections of Saudi Cup winner Mishriff decided to return to turf in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Military Law, sixth in the Saudi Cup and winner of the Maktoum Challenge Round 1 at Meydan in January, is among the global leading contenders around 5-1 with the bookmakers in early betting. He’ll break from post 5 with favorite Mystic Guide just to his outside. German-bred Salute the Solider, winner of the Maktoum Challenge Rounds 2 and 3, leaves from post 11. He’s being offered anywhere from 4-1 to 8-1 with the bookmakers and it will be interesting to see how his price shifts as the week progresses.

Americans competing on the undercard include last year’s US Champion Turf Male Channel Maker in the Dubai Sheema Classic; Yaupon, Wildman Jack and Zenden in the Dubai Golden Shaheen for dirt sprinters; Ambivalent and Lugamo in the UAE Derby; Extravagant Kid, Cowan and True Valour in the Al Quoz Sprint on grass; and the trio of Avant Garde, Snapper Sinclair and Parsimony in the Godolphin Mile on dirt.

1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering a $10 money-back guarantee promotion on all of the Dubai World Cup Day races from Meydan. Get up to $10 refunded on any win wager in any of those races if your selection finishes second or third. See the 1/ST BET app and Xpressbet.com for details.

Saturday’s Meydan schedule for Dubai World Cup Day (times US eastern)

o 7:45AM ET // Dubai Race 1 // Dubai Kahayla Classic
o 8:15AM ET // Dubai Race 2 // Godolphin Mile
o 8:50AM ET // Dubai Race 3 // Dubai Gold Cup
o 9:30AM ET // Dubai Race 4 // Al Quoz Sprint
o 10:05AM ET // Dubai Race 5 // UAE Derby
o 10:40AM ET // Dubai Race 6 // Dubai Golden Shaheen
o 11:30AM ET // Dubai Race 7 // Dubai Turf
o 12:10PM ET // Dubai Race 8 // Dubai Sheema Classic
o 12:50PM ET // Dubai Race 9 // Dubai World Cup

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:53 AM

Golden Gate Stats: Lenzini's Dashers Heat Up

March 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Headlines

Reminder that first post time has moved to 1:20 pm PT daily … Golden Gate has a $21,929 Rainbow 6 carryover heading into Thursday’s return for a 4-day racing week … The Golden Hour pick 4 had its top handle of the season last Sunday, topping $201K, with the final 2 races daily at GGF and Santa Anita paired in the popular wager … Friday’s Race 7 mile allowance co-feature could be a springboard toward the April 24 California Derby. The field of 7 has 4 last-out winners … Looking ahead: April 24 is San Francisco Mile Day at Golden Gate Fields and features the California Derby and Oaks on the undercard among 6 stakes. Nominations close April 15.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $313.30 with 4 winners at 2-1 or less and an $11 topper. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 26, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg C – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:29 ET
Leg E – Gulfstream Park Race 10 with an approximate post time of 5:54 ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 29% winners. The factor Win % was a top-3 player for the second straight week.

Lifetime Earnings
Lifetime Speed
Win %

Trends Last Week

-- It was another big week for leading trainer Jonathan Wong at 14: 6-3-2. That makes his 25: 10-6-3 over the past 2 weeks. Of those 10 winners, however, 9 have been favorites. He was 8: 5-1-1 last week with the chalk.

-- Trainer Michael Lenzini was precise with a 4: 2-1-0 record that boasted a $15 winner and a 5-1 runner-up. His exacta finishes all came with main track dashers at 6 furlongs or shorter. The barn has won with 3 of its last 6 starters.

-- Trainer Cliff Delima was 2-for-6 while most notably lighting up the tote with a $46 winner (and an $8 winner to boot). Jockey Francisco Monroy was 3: 2-0-0 in tandem with both victories.

-- Jockey Catalino Martinez was strong at 13: 4-3-2, popping a $17 winner among a trio of well-backed victories. Martinez was 2-for-3 teamed with trainer Jonathan Wong.

-- Jockey Santos Rivera made the most of the least with a 4: 3-0-0 record and returns of $4, $13 and $14. His 3 wins came for 3 different trainers over 3 different distances, both sprinting and routing.

-- Jockey Evin Roman was 8: 4-3-0 aboard favorites last week and 15: 8-5-1 on chalk the past 2 weeks

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:54 AM

MJC Stats: AI Picks Tab 37% Winners On Week

March 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Headlines

Laurel’s 20-Cent Rainbow 6 was solved last Friday for a jackpot payout of $22,943 …. A $2,347 Rainbow 6 carryover welcomes horseplayers back this week … Maryland-bred Jaxon Traveler, a 2-time winner at Laurel including the Maryland Juvenile Futurity, made his 3-year-old debut last Saturday with a second-place finish (by a head) in the $150,000 Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park ... Nominations close April 3 for Laurel’s next big stakes bonanza, a $750,000 afternoon April 17 with 7 stakes – including the Federico Tesio and Weber City Miss Stakes with Win & You’re In stipulations for the Preakness and Black-Eyed Susan.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $313.30 with 4 winners at 2-1 or less and an $11 topper. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 26, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg C – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:29 ET
Leg E – Gulfstream Park Race 10 with an approximate post time of 5:54 ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Laurel, each posting at least 38% wins. The 1/ST BET app’s AI handicapping picked 37% winners at Laurel Park last week and showed a flat-bet profit.

Best Speed Distance
Best Speed Track
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Johan Rosado led the way with a big 9: 4-2-0 week, including 2-for-3 aboard favorites. He also added a $17 winner. Rosado and trainer Hamilton Smith teamed for a 4: 2-1-0 record.

-- Jockey Jorge Ruiz posted a 10: 3-2-2 mark and $1.35 ROI for every $1 bet. His $17 winner came aboard the longest shot he rode (8 of 10 mounts 7-2 or less).

-- Jockey Jevian Toledo didn’t miss the mark with a 7: 2-3-2 record that included $10 and $12 winners. All 7 mounts came in the sprint ranks.

-- Trainer Carlos Mancilla’s runners had a 6: 3-2-0 week, boasting a pair of $15 winners among those. He was 5-for-5 in the exacta sprinting 7 furlongs or less.

-- Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salamon went 6: 3-0-1, winning races at 7 furlongs, 1 mile and 1-1/8 miles. Returns included $12 and $17 scores for a $2.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Trainer Emanuel Geralis was absent last week from the entries, but has 4 wins from his last 5 starters dating back to Feb. 7.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:56 AM

Gulfstream Stats: Graded Stakes Favs 52% at Meet

March 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Headlines

The Rainbow 6 has a $735,873 carryover ($1.1M guaranteed pool) heading into Wednesday’s card, kickoff to the final week of the Championship Meet … Saturday’s Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Day program will include 14 races, 10 stakes and a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 pool. First post will be 11:30 am ET … Wednesday’s post position draw for the Florida Derby will be livestreamed at Gulfstreampark.com beginning at 12:15 pm ET … Florida Derby headliners are expected to include Holy Bull-Fountain of Youth winner Greatest Honour, smashing local maiden winner Collaborate and west coast invader Spielberg.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $313.30 with 4 winners at 2-1 or less and an $11 topper. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 26, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg C – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:29 ET
Leg E – Gulfstream Park Race 10 with an approximate post time of 5:54 ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 32% or greater win rate and showing massive flat-bet profits (all +$54-$81 for the week). Avg. Speed Last 3 and Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed were top-3 factors for the second straight week. The 1/ST BET app’s AI handicapping picked 32% winners at Gulfstream Park last week and showed a flat-bet profit.

Avg. Speed Last 3
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
Best Speed Last 3

Trends Last Week

-- Favorites went 24-53 (45%) last week and are now 50-106 (47%) over the past 2 weeks with nearly 70% in the exacta. Favorites have won 52% on the Championship Meet in graded stakes races after Pacific Gale’s Hurricane Bertie victory last week, worth noting as we head into a big Saturday stakes card.

-- Trainer Mark Casse had one of his better weeks of the meet at 8: 3-0-0 with winners paying $5, $8 and $17. All 3 winners came on grass, including a pair of maiden breakers.

-- Trainer Kent Sweezey went 7: 2-1-1 with a $65 longshot bomb topping the marquee. The barn also had an 11-1 shot in the money and posted a $1.18 ROI for every $1 bet for the entire Championship Meet.

-- Trainer Kelly Breen continued a good run at 6: 2-0-2. He’s now 11: 4-1-2 the past 2 weeks after a cold spell leading up to the turn-around.

-- Jockey Junior Alvarado excelled in the absence of some of the meet’s top riders last week, posting a 34: 9-7-3 mark. That’s 27% wins and 47% in the exacta while going 2-for-2 in stakes races. He had 2 wins for Mark Casse and 2 for Jose Francisco D’Angelo.

-- Jockey Javier Castallano had the best week of his comeback from injury, going 19: 5-1-5. Victories included $13 and $21 scores, but his 9: 3-1-3 record aboard favorites indicates he was on several live mounts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 08:59 AM

Santa Anita Stats: D'Amato/Prat Perfect

March 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Headlines

A $345,635 Rainbow 6 carryover welcomes horseplayers back Friday for another 3-day racing week … There’s also a Super High Five carryover of $21,055 into Friday … This week’s feature races are the Grade 3 Santa Ana on Saturday in the filly and mare turf ranks, and Sunday’s Santana Mile on the main track … SA-based Spielberg (Bob Baffert) hits the road Saturday for Gulfstream’s Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby in hopes of advancing to the Triple Crown series. Fellow Californian Hot Rod Charlie shipped to Fair Grounds last week to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and punch his ticket to Louisville.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $313.30 with 4 winners at 2-1 or less and an $11 topper. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 26, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:30 ET
Leg B – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:03 ET
Leg C – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:08 ET
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:29 ET
Leg E – Gulfstream Park Race 10 with an approximate post time of 5:54 ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Santa Anita Park last week, each winning at a 36% or greater win rate.

Earnings at Track
Best Lifetime Speed
Jockey Current Year

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Phil D’Amato had the top barn with a 13: 5-3-2 mark that included a 4-for-8 ledger with favorites. His baker’s dozen runners averaged only 5-2 odds and he was 3-for-3 paired with jockey Flavien Prat.

-- Assistant trainer Leandro Moro was 6: 2-0-2 locally as the program trainer for suspended Doug O’Neill (and also won the Louisiana Derby with Hot Rod Charlie). Moro’s 2-week total was 14: 5-3-2 in a pinch-hitting role.

-- Trainer John Shirreffs made the most of limited strikes, going 2: 1-1-0 with a juicy $39 winner and an 8-1 runner-up, both in the maiden ranks. Shirreffs has a win and 4 seconds from his last 10 local starters.

-- Jockey Flavien Prat continued to dominate with a 20: 9-3-3 week, including 12: 7-2-1 aboard favorites. He’s now 18-for-45 (40% wins) over the past 2 weeks.

-- Apprentice Jessica Pyfer posted strong numbers with a 10: 3-2-0 mark and delivered at 3: 2-1-0 when riding the chalk. All 3 wins came over route distances, 2 on dirt and 1 on turf.

-- Favorites were 12-for-26 on the week and now have won 26-for-51 (51%) over the past 2 weeks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2021, 09:01 AM

Bob Valentino

You know the Raptors simply have too much talent to continue the lose they way they have been, but I don't see this Wednesday "home" game being the spot they suddenly snap out of the deep fog they have been playing in since prior to the All-Star break.

Perhaps having to play their home games in Tampa has taken its toll, because right now the Raptors have no real injuries of note and no one out for COVID-19 protocols and yet they come into this game with a 9 game slide straight up and 5 spread losses over their last 6 games!

Denver did just play last night in Orlando, but the trip from Orlando to Tampa is about as short as it gets, and they did defeat the Magic for their 9th win over their last 11 games contested.

These teams have not met since last August in the Orlando "bubble" when the Raptors stopped a 3 game straight up and against the spread losing streak to the Nuggets. I am sure the Raptors would like to stop this unbelievable 9 game slide, a slide that continued against a Houston Rockets team that had lost 20 in a row prior their win over the Raptors.

Like I said, the Raptors are not going to keep losing, but they are NOT winning tonight's game.

Go with the unrested Nuggets to hand the Raptors loss #10 in a row in Tampa on Wednesday.

3* DENVER

Wednesday 3/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 3/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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