Sunday 4/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-11-2021, 07:57 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/11/21

April 11, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Single: 6-Big Passion

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a low-level maiden claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares. In a borderline inscrutable affair that we’re not planning on getting too involved in, let’s zero in on the sprinter-stretching-out Big Passion. If she’s ever going to handle two-turns, it will be in her first try, so if the daughter of Mr. Big can get loose on the lead under bug girl E. Ellingwood she may get brave and roll all the way to the wire. If it’s not her, it could be anybody.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:40 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Kenzou’s Rhythm; 3-Justin’s Quest

Forecast: Justin’s Quest has never been one to trust, and after being claimed for $35,000 two runs back the son of Justin Phillip shows up today in a bottom-rung $10,000 affair. F. Prat stays aboard - good sign – so against this bunch the T. Yakteen-trained gelding may have found his friends, though at 6/5 on the morning line he’ll offer very little value. Kenzou’s Rhythm returns to his proper level and rates a look off his good runner-up try two runs back. The veteran gelding always has liked this main track – he’s been first or second in seven of 12 career starts – so we’ll consider him the one to fear most.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:13 PT Grade: X
Single: Barraza

Forecast: Here’s another short price favorite that seems logical but won’t be offering any real wagering value. Barraza has displayed improvement in the morning and shows up in an expensive maiden claimer that should be well within his capabilities. Second to his highly-regarded stable mate Triple Tap while well clear of the rest last time out, the son of Into Mischief is realistically spotted, has little to beat, and should take full advantage of the opportunity to earn his diploma.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: X
Use: 5-Flat Out Joy; 7-Bristol Bayou

Forecast: First off the claim for S. Miyadi,Bristol Bayou lands the cozy outside post, picks up F. Prat, and will be a short price to duplicate her easy maiden $20,000 score less than two weeks ago while being wheeled back on short rest while seeking an immediate return on investment. This seven furlong trip seems made to order for her stalking/prompting style, but she’s 4/5 on the morning line so there’s not much we can do with her. Flat Out Joy finished in the frame in all six of her starts over the Santa Anita main track and should produce her usual honest effort again. The R. Ellis-trained mare has trained well since raced and projects to be close up throughout in what likely will be a soft early pace. You can use her as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play while reserving the main punch to Bristol Bayou.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Shanghai Sunrise; 3-Dancing Dana; 4-Warren’s Memorable

Forecast: There are three main players in this starter’s optional claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies, with slight preference on top going to Shanghai Sunrise. The M. Puype-trained daughter of Shanghai Bobby has improving speed figures and a pair of sharp recent workouts that indicate she’s ready for a significant forward move. Dancing Dana is genuine, consistent, and solid on speed figures. She’ll have every chance from a good pace-stalking position. Warren’s Memorable is back sprinting where she belongs and with some help up front could be quite dangerous from off the pace. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Shanghai Sunrise.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Invictatatus; 5-Go Daddy Go

Forecast: Go Daddy Go shows up in a soft restricted (nw-2) $32,000 for the first time and should be able to take full advantage of the opportunity. He’s plenty fast enough on speed figures to beat this field; however, his career record of one-for-15 makes him somewhat unreliable and at 8/5 on the morning line he’ll offer little in the way of wagering value. Therefore, for protection, we’ll also include in our rolling exotics Invictatatus, who’ll very likely attempt gate-to-wire tactics from his rail draw. The Strong Mandate has run reasonably well on dirt in the past and may enjoy this return to the main track.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Ginja; 4-Stressed; 6-Caparegime

Forecast: Ginja and Stressed both have credentials to win this maiden $100,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies but so does Caparegime and she’ll be the best price of the three, so we’ll put her on too while including all three in our rolling exotics. The V. Cerin-trained daughter of Street Boss appeared in dire need of the outing when flashing speed before fading in her debut and we’re expecting a much better performance today with that tightener behind her. J. J. Hernandez, the barn’s “go-to” rider, stays aboard and should have her in an ideal stalking position outside the other two committed speed types. Stressed is listed at 6/5 on the morning line while exiting the same races as Caparegime and clearly is the one to fear most. She makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat and could very well be the quickest of the quick. Gina was beaten by subsequent stakes winner Soothsay in her debut after flashing speed and then weakening in the final furlong to wind up a respectable fourth. The daughter of Quality Road certainly has a right to move forward off that effort for a barn that always has good stats with the second-time starter angle.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:53 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Trina; 7-Time for Ebby; 8-Li’l Grazen

Forecast: Here’s another spread race, this one for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. Time for Ebby makes her 61st career start and is back at her winning level after being pitched too high in open company last time out. She continues to train eagerly and is reunited with “win rider” T. Baze, so we’re expecting to see her best stuff. Li’l Grazen is a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (27% with massive ROI) and therefore is an automatic “must use.” She’s back with F. Prat, who’s always gotten the most run out of her. Trina is a sharp Bay Area invader with speed figure that fit on this circuit. If she can duplicate her synthetic track form on this dirt surface she’ll be a threat.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: -B-
Use: 2-My Tigress; 6-Uncaged Kitty

Forecast: My Tigress missed at even money when a disappointing third vs. similar maiden $50,000 foes last month but has worked quite well since, so we’ll give the R. Baltas-trained filly another chance with F. Prat staying aboard. She had a legitimate excuse in that race - she had a bad stumble at the start – but with a clean journey today she should be able to handle this soft task. Uncaged Kitty represents stranger danger from San Luis Rey Downs and is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger) for the clever P. Miller outfit. She shows a couple of recent gate drills that catch the eye, so we’ll toss her in for protection but use My Tigress as the main punch.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-11-2021, 07:57 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 4/11/21

April 11, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Aqueduct – First Race – Post time: 1:20 ET
6-After the Party (5/2)

Sophomore filly brought $750,000 as a yearling and makes her debut from a comfortable outside draw in this maiden special weight sprint in which the known element doesn’t appear to be too imposing. Out of a stakes winning mare and half-sister to a stakes winning juvenile, the daughter of Into Mischief has done some excellent work in the a.m. for barn that is quite capable of winning with a first-time starter, so we’re expecting good things right off the bat from this Jeremiah Englehart-trained filly. A recent Belmont Park training track drill in 48 seconds breezing was the eighth fastest of 314 for the distance on that day, so we’ll assume she’s fit and ready. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Keeneland – Ninth Race – Post time: 5:30 ET
4-Dancefortheempire (7/2)

Didn’t get the best of runs in her debut at Far Grounds when shuffled back early and then forced to race wide throughout but found her best stride late and wound up a much-better-than-looked third in a similar two-turn maiden grass affair last month. The daughter of Empire Maker comes from a barn that has superior stats with the second-time starter angle, so we’re expecting a huge forward move today from this B. Walsh-trained filly. There’s good value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at or near her morning line of 7/2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-11-2021, 07:58 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

April 11, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has an 11-race card scheduled and the 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

5-Some Playa (5-1)-The Plano barn did well last weekend and this 10-year-old tried hard but couldn't hang on at 11-1. Thinking the plan could be different and will look to come off cover instead of racing on the lead.
7-Stanhope (5/2)-Comes off a game try from the 8-hole to cash a 3rd place check. Roland sticks and this time the journey shouldn't be as bumpy.
9-To The Limit (6-1)-Svendsen's pick over #8 and is another who comes off a tough trip. The Plested barn has been cold but this veteran should be rolling down the lane and would benefit from a solid pace. That could happen as the 6 and 7 may blast out.

Race 9

2-Cowboys Dirtyboots (15-1)-Even effort in last but was off since 3-6 and draws inside so will use for those two reasons. Stewart could get sucked around and there could be a few leavers to make for an honest pace.
4-Outlaw Blue By You (7/2)-Kerwood steers as Svendsen stayed true to Johnson and drives #6. Stayed inside last week but when good has shown the ability to pass similar down the lane.
5-I'm An Athlete (2-1)-Beaten chalk now makes his 3rd start since a double scratch and last was better. Did race the back half in 56.3 and meets a field with little form.
6-Almost Cut My Hair (8-1)-Even effort at this class last time but was off for almost a month. Svendsen has taken a picture in the past and should be tighter tonight. Will need a big effort but is not alone. The entire field hasn't had recent success at this level.

Race 10

1-Senseless Beauty (5-1)-Has been closing well but needs to be in striking range at the top of the lane. Cutting will be steering for the 3rd straight time. Might be closer to the lead tonight and then use one nice move to roll by.
3-Three Grand (3-1)-This 5-year-old hasn't won at CalX and is 0-26 in 20-21. But did race the back half in 56.3 to finish 4th and now makes 3rd start for the new barn. Looking for the upswing to continue in a race that's difficult to decipher.

Race 11

1-Catchmeinadream (3-1)-Comes off a pair of 3rd place finishes and now makes the 4th start off the bench. There isn't much gate speed in this field and Kerwood could be on the point or in the pocket behind #6 and trip out.
6-Cal's Hope (5-1)-Faded down the lane last week but may not have to work hard to get a cozy seat. Best to respect beaten chalk and has notched 2 recent wins at this level.
7-Liveonadreneline (4-1)-Dropped in for a tag in last but lost all chance after breaking stride at the start. Before that was a winner in 3 straight, and the Graham barn keeps rolling. Roland takes a seat for the 1st time and that shouldn't hurt chances.

0.20 Pick 4

5,7,9/2,4,5,6/1,3/1,6,7
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-11-2021, 07:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket at Golden Gate

April 11, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Here’s hoping Exceed Speed Limit lives up to his name in the finale on Sunday in the Late Pick 4 on the Golden Gate Fields cards. He’s a single on the $64 suggested ticket.
The ticket goes to the other extreme in the seventh race as the ALL button is utilized in the field of eight.
Here’s a look at the sequence that starts at 6:50 p.m. ET:

Race 6 (6:50 p.m. ET, claiming)
FLOAT ON has had the lead in the vast majority of his races and stretches out. He’s bred to stretch out and to run well over grass.
IMA RUMBLER took command and held on well for a maiden win going two turf. He moves to the turf and has the pedigree that could make it happen successfully.
COPPER HALO stretches out and moves to the turf as well. He came home an impressive winner last out and his only grass appearance produced a third-place finish.
COLAVITO goes for his third straight win and is on the turf for the first time since November, when he finished second. Can be a threat for every bit of this one.

Race 7 (7:20 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
ALL.

Alma Spirit will probably have the betting support as she was second in her only start. However, there is so much speed in here that anything is possible, especially with a multi-horse battle out front. Therefore, a plunge into ALL is the strategy I’ve taken here.

Race 8 (7:50 p.m. ET, allowance)
LET’S REJOYCE won at Santa Anita three races back and ran a solid third in his first one this year at Golden Gate. He’s been on the board in all six local starts.

SQUARE DEAL just missed after a difficult head-and-head battle and will be a headache for others attempting to get the early lead. Turns back to 5.5 furlongs and that could be what it takes here.

THE LITTLE H MAN showed a good closing move in his last two races and will make a run.
TORPEDO AWAY faltered last time but has a chance to secure a perfect stalking position.

Race 9 (8:20 p.m. ET, maidens)
EXCEED SPEED LIMIT ran well in both starts, first on the first end (when he held on for third) and most recently from just off the pace (when he closed for second). Get Kyle Frey (27 percent) aboard and can time it right in this one. Worthy of being a single on the ticket.

Golden Gate Fields Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
50-cent Late Pick 4:
6) #2 Float On, #3 Ima Rumbler, #5 Copper Halo, #7 Colavito.
7) ALL (8 horses)
8) #1 Let’s Rejoyce, #3 Square Deal, #5 The Little H Man, #6 Torpedo Away.
9) #3 Exceed Speed Limit
Golden Gate Fields Late Pick 4 (races 6-9): 2-3-5-7 with ALL (8 horses) with 1-3-5-6 with 3 ($64).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-11-2021, 07:58 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Mama Superior She has shown a bit of route pace since adding Lasix, and her improved form intrigues on the move back around one turn.
#3 Dancing Dana Tactical type has been knocking on the door with similar in recent starts, but I wouldn't be excited about taking too short a number here with all the underneath slices on the resumé
#7 Agreetodisagree She's probably still capable of something a little bit better than she showed last time out, but not sure she'd be too appealing at something like the 3/1 ML offering.
Race Summary Mama Superior brings cutback route pace, always an interesting angle, and she might be able to get the right kind of finishing trip out of midpack.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Homehome She should be a mid-range price player in this bunch, and after four even efforts in a row, maybe the addition of blinkers allows her to find an additional gear late.
#3 Liberalism Tactical type comes off the layoff, but the one she chased in that last try has become a razor-sharp local star. She gets back to the main where she has run well in the past. Not out of this.
#8 Li'l Grazen Not sure she's going to offer a fair price based on her realistic chances of winning this, but she draws well to prompt the issue in the early going.
Race Summary Homehome might get the nudge she needs from the addition of blinkers here, and she has been in with some pretty tough groups over the last year.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 My Tigress She looks like the one to beat, but she's pretty likely to offer too short a price to dive in the win pool. Guessing she can turn in a better effort today.
#6 Uncaged Kitty Looks like the best of the debuters in this spot, and that makes her the most likely to capitalize if the chalk fades late.
#3 Chiquita Piquita She faded on the turf in the debut run when ignored at 43/1, but she moves to the dirt with blinkers and a bullet work, so there might be something more here today at a price.
Race Summary My Tigress and Uncaged Kitty are the pair I'll be using in the Golden Hour Double, and I'll hope that pair will get me through to price player #5 Falsely Accused in Golden Gate's 9th to close out the wager.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-11-2021, 07:59 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Likeable Classy runner comes off a fourth-place finish in the Swale Stakes and tired in the BC Juvenile; gets Lasix and will likely be tough for these to handle.
#7 Caxambas Candy Was an easy maiden winner and then got tired against winners; suited for the turf and should be a big player in his first attempt on the green.
#3 The Right Stuff Set the pace and faltered late in the Columbia Stakes at Tampa Bay; serious threat on the front end and he made his third for Clement barn.
Race Summary Likeable is L1 today and has been battle tested against the best; should improve with distance and on turf.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Shes All Woman Can benefit from chasing a fast pace and look like the one to hold off in this sprint.
#6 Luann Unbeaten in two races and has been claimed in both, most recently by the Breen stable; daughter of The Big Beast will make a run and has a decent chance to remain unbeaten.
#2 Gitana Has two winners and four seconds in her last six and does her best on every try; one to catch.
Race Summary Shes All Woman gets a good pace setup and should be able to have a response when called upon in the closing yards.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Party Swagger Comes out of stronger races and can benefit from this drop to the bottom; solid player today.
#5 Playera Was second vs. better two races back and can be in the mix from the start; fits here.
#10 Piper Can get a good trip from the outside and should be able to press throughout; can still around for a major slice.
Race Summary Party Swagger has been vs. solid foes in her first two races and should be able to shine on the class drop.