Wednesday 4/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:08 AM

Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings

April 14, 2021

Our Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 – ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0 ($2,265,144). Derby points: 140
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; 2020 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old enters the Kentucky Derby-G1 with a perfect record in five starts, most recently when fully extended to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 (by a neck from Highly Motivated) while enjoying a trouble-free pace-stalking trip; had reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior); completed his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Keeneland in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie and before that with a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 (from Keepmeinmind); speed figures have risen with every start but without a significant leap and with a career top Beyer number of a good-but-not-great 97; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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2 – ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($546,600). Derby points: 100
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, 10F Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in three starts, most recently in his first try on dirt when registering a gate-to-wire victory in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Medina Spirit), setting fast fractions and then repelling all challenges to drew clear in the final furlong with complete authority (and galloping out far in front) while earning a career top 100 Beyer speed figure (tops among intended Kentucky Derby starters), previous two wins were accomplished on grass, the listed 8F Pasadena S. in February in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) and a maiden over 6F on grass on New Year’s Day (by one and three-quarter lengths while appearing to toy with his opposition); pedigree suggests he’ll thrive over a classic distance and farther; has proven to be effective on the lead or from a stalking position though he’s yet to experience dirt kickback; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 at least among the first three favorites; not a particularly willing performer in the morning and is still a bit green in the p.m. (switched leads twice in the stretch in his most recent start) but has the kind of potential that could reach a championship level.
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3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 9, Palm Meadows, 4f, :50 1/5.

The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was thought of early in his career as a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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4 – HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1b

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register two length score (from Midnight Bourbon) while establishing new track record (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 – HIGHLY MOTIVATED (C. Brown) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($320,050). Derby points: 50
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The Skinny: $240K though the ring as a weanling (retained by his breeder); first foal, dam a Canadian-bred sprint SW at 3; in the frame in all five career starts and earned a career top speed figure in early April when second (was five and one-half lengths clear of the rest) as the controlling speed in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 by a neck to Essential Quality, giving way grudgingly close home but with a trip that may have flattered the performance; previously appeared a tad rusty when third (by a length and three-quarters to Weyburn) when making his seasonal bow in the 8F Gotham S-G3 the previous month; displayed plenty of potential when easily capturing the listed 6.5F Nyquist S. on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland in November; pedigree suggests a classic distance will be stretching his limit; not likely to enjoy the same type of soft trip in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that he did in his most recent outing and thus his chances must be viewed as somewhat suspect in the spring classics despite the quality and consistency he’s displayed so far in his five-race career.
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6 – MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 120 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 5-2-3-0 ($315,200). Derby points: 74
Last star: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F, Kentucky Dereby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); was no match Rock Your World when second (beaten four and one-quarter lengths) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April when favored at 4/5, enjoying an ideal pace-stalking trip outside but then proving unable to quicken when the pressure was turned on at the head of the lane; previously had finished a well-beaten second to unbeaten Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout and before that displaying extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; speed figures are decent but have stagnated in recent outings; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance but though he’s clearly a reliable and consistent sort his lack of progression and his one-paced style indicate he may have reached his ceiling.
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7 – MIDNIGHT BOURBON (S. Asmussen) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon
Lifetime record 7-2-2-3 ($461,420. Derby points: 66
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 11, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.2b

The Skinny: $525K yearling, half-brother to three black-type performers, including Girvin (Haskell Invitational G1, etc.) and Cocked and Loaded (Iroquois S.-G2, etc.); never off the board in seven career starts with his most notable win the 8.5F Lecomte S.-G3 at Fair Grounds in January (gate-to-wire, by one length from Proxy); subsequently finished third (by one and three-quarters lengths to Mandaloun) in 9F Risen Star S.-G2 in February and then most recently second in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby (by two lengths from Hot Rod Charlie) the following month; perhaps most effective when able to make the running though he has performed well in a stalker’s role; good recent Beyer speed figures indicate there’s better likely to come; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 following a six week layoff; clearly a genuine and consistent type though on resume not quite up to the level of the leaders in the division at this stage.
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8 – CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 4-3-0-1 ($856,600). Derby points: 70
Last start: April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby.-G1, finished third.
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs,10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced.

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); suffered his first defeat in four career starts when third (by two and one-half lengths to Super Stock) in 9F Arkansas Dewrby-G1, stalking the pace to the head of the lane, briefly hitting the front but then weakening under pressure in the final furlong at odds of 30 cents on the dollar; appeared keen early while perhaps resenting rating tactics before losing his steam under pressure; had previously dominated a similar field in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park (by four and one-quarter lengths from stable mate Hozier) under mild urging to win apparently with plenty left though earning a solid but not great 94 Beyer speed figure; earlier had been successful with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 (by one-half length from stable mate Freedom Fighter) after winning his debut three weeks earlier in 6F maiden sprint; pedigree suggests a classic distance should be within his capabilities though his failure to deliver in the Arkansas Derby under what appeared to be pristine conditions provides evidence that a middle distance is his limit or that he's most comfortable as the controlling speed; approaches the spring classics as a major question makr with speed figures that have plateaued.
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9 – HELIUM (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 10, Churchill Downs, 5f, :59.1b

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and then the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the pace and from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and will have two months in between races while training up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field than actually providing him the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.
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10 – SOUP AND SANDWICH (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0 ($203,875). Derby points: 40
Last start: March 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 11, Churchill Downs, 4f, :48.4b

The skinny: Live Oak Stud homebred; Monmouth Park allowance-winning dam traces to a solid a midwestern family that includes Til Forbid (Arlington Oaks-G3, etc); won his first two career starts in excellent fashion, a state-bred 6.5F Gulfstream Park maiden by seven and one-quarter lengths and then a middle distance allowance event at Tampa Bay Downs by two and three-quarter lengths, both victories accomplished utilizing pace pressing/stalking tactics; took on much tougher competition in his most recent outing in the 9F Florida Derbny-G1 and acquitted himself quite well when establishing the pace and then staying on gamely to be second (by two and three-quarter lengths to Known Agenda) while three lengths clear of the rest; a genuine sort but is suspect at a classic distance; will need to improve again to make his mark in the spring classics but with just three career starts has room to for further development.

Also eligible: O Besos(G. Foley); Bourbonic (T. Pletcher); Dynamic One; (T. Pletcher); Rombauer (M. McCarthy); Mandaloun (B. Cox); Like the King (W. Ward).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:08 AM

GGF Stats: Public Has Them Figured

April 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

Golden Gate Fields will welcome fans back to the track beginning this Friday. Pre-purchased tickets at Goldengatefields.com are required for admission … Golden Gate will have a $95,698 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover heading into this Friday’s kickoff to a 3-day racing week through Sunday … Eight stakes races are on the horizon April 24-25 for Gold Rush Weekend, including the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile on the opening day. Nominations close this Thursday … The 2021 1/ST and Xpressbet Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, featuring Golden Gate Fields handicappers, will be available for free download beginning April 23.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $717.70 to 144 winning tickets. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 16, will be:

Leg A – Gulfstream Park Race 7 with an approximate post time of 4:18
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:50
Leg C – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:22
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:27
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 4 with an approximate post time of 6:00

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 29% winners and a flat-bet profit.

Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Speed Last Race
Last Purse

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Evin Roman topped the standings at 18: 7-2-2 and a flashy $2.58 ROI for every $1 bet. Six of his wins were logical contenders, but a $70 bomber lit up the returns.

-- Jockey Catalino Martinez was a precise 8: 3-1-1, winning races for high-powered barns like Jonathan Wong, Doug O’Neill and Reid France. But all 3 wins were solid $7, $11 and $13 prices in main-track sprints.

-- Jockey Assael Espinoza had the hot hand on turf at 5: 3-0-0 that featured a $30 winner. His only losses came aboard 18-1 and 27-1 shots.

-- Trainer Reid France cured his second-itis of late with an 10: 3-2-2 mark that included a $17 victory and a 28-1 shot in the money.

-- Trainer Jesus Ramos went 7: 3-0-0, including 2-for-2 on turf. The barn popped $6, $12 and $33 winners with Assael Espinoza in the saddle.

-- Favorites won 48.5% last week and are 32-for-67 the past 2 weeks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:08 AM

MJC Stats: Claudio & Cruz Come Out Firing

April 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Laurel Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Laurel Park by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

Racing this week will be Saturday-Sunday-Monday with first post at 12:40 pm ET … 2020 Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver returns to action Saturday in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn … 24 horses have nominated to the April 24 Federico Tesio Stakes and its Preakness Win & You’re In status. Among those include Remsen winner Brooklyn Strong, Hello Hot Rod and Private Terms 1-2 finishers Shackled Love and Maythehorsebewithu … April 10 Lexington Stakes winner King Fury will be pointed at the May 15 Preakness Stakes if he is unable to draw into the Kentucky Derby field, trainer Kenny McPeek said … The 2021 1/ST and Xpressbet Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, featuring Maryland Jockey Club handicappers, will be available for free download beginning April 23.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $717.70 to 144 winning tickets. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 16, will be:

Leg A – Gulfstream Park Race 7 with an approximate post time of 4:18
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:50
Leg C – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:22
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:27
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 4 with an approximate post time of 6:00

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Laurel, each posting at least 39% wins. The 1/ST BET app’s AI handicapping picked 46% winners at Laurel Park last week and showed a flat-bet profit.

Best Speed Last 3
Trainer 6 Months Win %
Best Speed Track

Trends Last Week

-- Perennial leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez got the new Spring Meet off to a flying start at 14: 7-2-2. But his 7 winners all were 2-1 or less and averaged only a 3-2 return. All wins came in sprints on dirt and 3 in the maiden claiming ranks.

-- Trainer Jamie Ness went 7: 4-0-1, including $9 and $12 scores pairing up with a couple of favorites. Jockeys Johan Rosado and Sheldon Russell split the victories, 3 of which came in the claiming ranks.

-- Trainer Emanuel Geralis won both starts and has won with 4 straight Laurel starters going back to March 14, and 6 of his last 7 since early February. All 6 wins were well-backed at 2-1 or less.

-- Jockey Angel Cruz was on point at 11: 4-1-2, but was barely break-even on the ROI. His 4 winners all were 2-1 or less, but he did have a 58-1 shot light the bottom of the trifecta. Cruz and trainer Claudio Gonzalez teamed for a 3-for-5 mark.

-- Jockey Kevin Gomez made the most of limited mounts at 8: 3-2-0, winning for 3 different barns and topping with a $12 score. He also was second with a 44-1 shot and had no less than 3 superfecta finishers at 15-1 or more odds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:08 AM

GP Stats: Big Balloons with Berrios

April 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

The Rainbow 6 returns Thursday with a $486,765 carryover … Jockey Paco Lopez, 35, notched career win No. 3000 on April 10 at Gulfstream … Florida Derby winner Known Agenda departed South Florida Monday for Churchill Downs in advance of the May 1 Kentucky Derby, where he will be ridden by Championship Meet record-setter Irad Ortiz, Jr. Other Derby hopefuls with Gulfstream ties include Florida Derby runner-up Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione) and local maiden combatants Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz) and Sainthood (rider TBD) … The 2021 1/ST and Xpressbet Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, featuring Gulfstream Park handicappers, will be available for free download beginning April 23.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $717.70 to 144 winning tickets. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 16, will be:

Leg A – Gulfstream Park Race 7 with an approximate post time of 4:18
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:50
Leg C – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:22
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:27
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 4 with an approximate post time of 6:00

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 28% or greater win rate.

Earnings at Track
ITM (In The Money) %
Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. continued his roll with a 16: 7-1-2 record and a big $2.74 ROI for every $1 bet. He posted a $47 winner and notably only 1 of his 7 scores was under a 2-1 price. Joseph is now 10-for-23 over the past 2
weeks at Gulfstream.

-- Trainer Kent Sweezey went 7: 3-0-0 with logical winners at 3-2, 9-5 and 3-1. The performance was a good pivot from a 1-for-10 streak that led into last week for a barn that hits a solid percentage.

-- Trainer Antonio Sano turned the corner from a long cold spell with an 11: 2-3-1 mark that showed promise. Sano had been 2-33 in starts leading up to last week’s rebound.

-- Jockey Hector Berrios did the most with limited tries, posting a 10: 2-3-0 record. His $17 and $47 winners were joined by longshot runners-up at 19-1 and 65-1. Berrios had a $3.27 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Favorites were 12-for-21 (57%) in races scheduled for the turf last week.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:09 AM

SA Stats: Speed Factors Dominate Dirt

April 13, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Santa Anita Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Southern California. And be sure to support “The Great Race Place” by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Santa Anita Park.

Headlines

Racing this week resumes Saturday and Sunday … Saturday’s feature is the Grade 2 Californian, local prep for the Santa Anita Gold Cup, while the Sunday main events are the Grade 3 Kona Gold for sprinters and the Grade 3 Tokyo City Cup for dirt marathon runners … The 2021 1/ST and Xpressbet Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, featuring Santa Anita Park handicappers, will be available for free download beginning April 23 … Santa Anita Derby 1-2 finishers Rock Your World and Medina Spirit remain on target for the May 1 Kentucky Derby, as does Lewis Memorial runner-up Hot Rod Charlie and last year’s American Pharoah runner-up Rombauer. San Vicente winner Concert Tour is undecided after his Arkansas Derby third-place finish. On the overflow list for the Derby at this stage are local sophomores Dream Shake and Get Her Number.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $717.70 to 144 winning tickets. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 16, will be:

Leg A – Gulfstream Park Race 7 with an approximate post time of 4:18
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:50
Leg C – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:22
Leg D – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:27
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 4 with an approximate post time of 6:00

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Santa Anita Park last week, each winning at a 28% or greater win rate. Speed factors ran the table as most effective on the week as all races were conducted on the main track.

Best Lifetime Speed
Best Speed Track
Speed Last Race

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Steve Miyadi put up a 4: 2-1-0 performance on the 2-day racing week. He’s now 8: 4-1-1 over the past 3 weeks at SA and has won both pairings with leading jockey Flavien Prat.

-- Jockey Abel Cedillo had a strong 12: 4-3-2 record and $1.53 ROI for every $1 bet. He piloted $12 and $15 winners along the way, winning races for 4 different trainers.

-- Jockey Edwin Maldonado was money with a 6: 3-0-1 mark. His $9, $10 and $35 winners created a massive $4.57 ROI for every $1 bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:09 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 Pipes and Drums He'll have to fire off a bit of a break, but he was able to run a good one first time out, so he can run fresh. Both of his efforts stack up pretty favorably with these, and he should get a great trip near the top again.
#9 Race Craft He's probably the one to beat, but he has had eight chances already and is getting short on excuses. Think he's a player at an underlaid price.
#5 Ferryboat Amoss protects this one off the claim while stepping up in class in a pretty significant way off the $15,000 MCL win. Chance to improve while racing around two turns.
Race Summary Pipes and Drums looks like he might be the right one to beat the likely chalk, Race Craft. 'Drums has turned in a couple of really nice efforts to open his career, and he has a right to be tough with any additional move forward.

Delta Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Finnleys Encore She took just a tiny bit of cash in the debut, going off at 7/1 and flashing brief pace against six others before a hard fade. She returns with much cheaper off the layoff and may be able to carry her speed with these. Interesting enough at a price.
#4 Quick Heat Think she's one of the ones on form, but she will be making her 11th career start, so it's a little tough to get too excited about her at a much shorter price than her 18/1 offering from that last try.
#7 Candy's Parade The two-turn experiment with better didn't work out, so she drops to the lowest level of her career while cutting back. Something like her debut effort for twice this price probably keeps her in the mix.
Race Summary Finnleys Encore backed up quickly in the debut run last summer, and she takes a big drop in class off the layoff. Cheap speed might be enough here.

Delta Downs - Race #10
Picks Notes
#5 Zing Zang Finisher might get a fair pace to chase, and he steps up off the claim to a level at which he was competitive in the past. Not sure many will move them up off Asmussen, but maybe a change of scenery will freshen this guy's form up a bit.
#7 Cantrell Hill He's supposed to win this race and probably will at a short price, but he is the kind of favorite you are supposed to try to beat. He has lost five straight times, including three times locally, at this level at odds of 4/1, 9/5, 3/5, 4/5, and 6/5. He'll take plenty of cash with imposing form and a bullet work, but I'll stand against.
#9 Buxterhooter He's one of the more likely upsetters in here, but his form can be spotty at times. If he brings one of his better races, he could probably land a pretty dreamy first-over trip from this draw.
Race Summary I'll be two deep in this race with Zing Zang and Buxterhooter, as Cantrell Hill is one to take a principled stand against with a string of underneath finishes at this level while offering modest prices. Zing Zang gets the edge at a better number -- hoping he can move up just a bit off the claim.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:12 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 MIKI U SO FINE Has speed, can travel the distance for new pilot.
#2 JOLLITY Bid to stretch lead, held second, held his top form.
#4 STEP ON THE GAS Passed by top pair in same spot, draws outside of them today.
Race Summary Miki U So Fine, the beaten favorite in his last three starts, can make maximum use of his speed from the rail. He's a good value play at 6-1 on the morning line in a wide open race. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

Hoosier Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 MAJOR HOOLIGAN Second at 59-1 in debut, loomed but ran third after pace slowed in follow-up.
#6 SOUTHERN SWAN MAN Led to stretch, came up short, gets first-time Lasix.
#1 FEARLESS TOM Improved in second start as a 3yo, has Tetrick and the rail.
Race Summary Major Hooligan, second behind the odds-on favorite from post 10 in his debut, couldn't reach the pace-controlling top pair in his second start. He ranged up for the stretch drive but settled for a clear third. Play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#2 CAVIART CALE Took money, ran into traffic congestion, free too late.
#8 PEMBROKE WILDCAT Numbers from the Meadows translate well, price attached.
#5 TOWNSLIGHT HANOVER Chased co-fave around the track, steps up in class.
Race Summary Caviart Cale was trapped inside much of the way, found running room in the stretch and just missed second behind the runaway favorite. He is today's Best Bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:12 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Matt's Honey Beat optional claimers in New Orleans and was a winner over this course last October; was a good claim by Hartman and is in a good spot for success here.
#1 War Eagle's Love Does well when she's in a stalking position and runs in a spot in which she can get the best view of what's in front of her and can strike when ready.
#5 Malibu Moira Rallied for second in her latest at Fair Grounds and does her best off the pace; threat to make a solid late run here.
Race Summary Matt's Honey has competed well at this level and the only bad efforts lately came when she was over her head; fits here and will have a strong presence.

Keeneland - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 Talking Book Rallied strongly over a turf course at Gulfstream that often doesn't jibe with a running style like hers; can get going earlier here and won her only previous nine-furlong race.
#5 Linny Kate Races have been spaced far about and she comes in off a third at Gulfstream; can be closer to the early action in this one.
#6 Tasaamuh Bred to be lonely on the front end going long and should be able to carve out the fractions; ready for her first for trainer Motion.
Race Summary Talking Book has a good closing move and this group likely will come back to her.

Keeneland - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Temple City Terror Rallied strongly and just missed in her only Keeneland appearance; was second in the Stall Memorial at Fair Grounds two back and fits here well.
#2 Stunning Sky Closed strongly and just missed in Sam Houston's Jersey Lily and won the G3 Valley View over this course last fall; excellent in the stretch.
#4 Joy Epifora Has run into contention but hasn't really finished well in tough races; could be a better fit here.
Race Summary Temple City Terror didn't like last out but has several on her form that would make her a big player here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:14 AM

MLB Sharp Action

7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (6-5) at New York Mets (4-3)

The Mets swept the Phillies in yesterday's doubleheader, winning 4-3 as -148 favorites in the first game and then winning 4-0 as + 108 dogs in the second game. In tonight's rematch, the Phillies send out righty Zack Wheeler (1-1, 2.31 ERA) while the Mets give the ball to lefty David Peterson (0-1, 13.50 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a short -125 road favorite. The public sees a glaring pitching advantage for the Phillies and has promptly pounded Philadelphia laying the chalk. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen the Phillies fall from -125 to -115. Some shops are inching closer to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets (+ 115 to + 105), with pros riding the hot hand getting plus money at home. New York matches several profitable betting systems this season, including a divisional dog, a dog off a win and a dog with a line move in their favor. The Mets are 3-1 at home this season. The Phillies are just 1-4 on the road.

7:20 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (4-6) at Atlanta Braves (4-7)

The Marlins have shocked the Braves so far in this series, winning the first two games 5-3 as + 125 dogs and 14-8 as + 150 dogs. In tonight's third game of the four-game set, the Marlins trot out Nick Neidert (0-0, 2.08 ERA) while the Braves start veteran Charlie Morton (1-1, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a hefty -195 home favorite. Wiseguys seem to like Atlanta to bounce back with a victory as we've seen the Braves get steamed up from -195 to -230. Teams with big steam of 20-cents or more in their favor are 16-8 (67%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 12-5 (71%). Big home favorites -200 or more are 8-3 (73%). The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. Divisional unders are 52-44 (54%) on the season. The Braves are 6-4-1 to the over this season. The Marlins are 5-3-2 to the under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 11:14 AM

1:07 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (5-6) at Toronto Blue Jays (5-6)

These AL East rivals have split the first two games of the series, with the Yankees winning the opener 3-1 as -190 favorites and the Jays winning Tuesday night 7-3 as -110 favorites. In today's early afternoon rubber match, the Yankees start veteran Corey Kluber (0-1, 5.68 ERA) while the Jays counter with righty Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.56 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -120 road favorite. We've seen sharps steam the Yankees, driving this line up to New York -130. So far this season, teams with steam of 10-cents or more in their favor are 43-34 (56%) with a nearly 10% ROI. Pros also seem to be leaning on the under. The total is a high 10.5 but the under is juiced to -115 or -120 depending on the shop. Divisional unders are 52-44 (54%) this season. The wind is expected to be blowing in from right at 10 MPH, which could benefit the under. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under this season, going 7-4.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 01:49 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $8,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 2:59P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. (RAIL SET AT 21 FEET).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. JAZZY EINSTEIN is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JAZZY EINSTEIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SALSA VERDE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PRINCESS TALE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	JAZZY EINSTEIN	5/1	5/2
1	SALSA VERDE	6/1	6/1
6	PRINCESS TALE	7/5	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	JAZZY EINSTEIN	5	5/1	Trailer	73	67	87.9	68.7	64.7
2	EBB AND FLOW	2	15/1	Trailer	62	50	69.2	62.6	49.6
1	SALSA VERDE	1	6/1	Trailer	74	69	54.3	58.5	51.5
6	PRINCESS TALE	6	7/5	Alternator/Trailer	77	70	39.8	36.0	33.5
4	MEAN SHARON	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	48	50.0	50.0	37.5
7	MARVELOUS MARVELLA	7	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	54	37.0	51.4	42.4
3	RED NOVA	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	64	34.1	34.1	26.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 01:50 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 10:17
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 14, 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SOLID AS A ROCK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. POLISHED COPPER: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has the highest Trac kMaster Power Rating. UNCUT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BIRD TRAFFIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	SOLID AS A ROCK	8/1	4/1
2	POLISHED COPPER	8/5	6/1
4	UNCUT	5/1	7/1
8	BIRD TRAFFIC	4/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	UNCUT	4	5/1	Front-runner	68	53	75.0	55.6	46.1
3	SOLID AS A ROCK	3	8/1	Front-runner	79	70	54.0	56.4	51.4
9	ADIOS HILLARY	9	15/1	Trailer	69	47	29.6	47.8	34.8
6	EARNED THE SHOT	6	15/1	Trailer	69	54	21.0	49.4	38.4
5	SHALL WE DANCE	5	20/1	Trailer	69	46	17.0	45.0	27.5
10	DAH PHILLY	10	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	59	41.2	51.2	38.2
8	BIRD TRAFFIC	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	72	40.4	57.4	51.9
2	POLISHED COPPER	2	8/5	Alternator/Trailer	78	76	37.3	69.6	64.1
1	CALL ME JELLY ROLL	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	59	46.0	48.8	36.3
7	PUT POSITION	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	60	45.8	48.4	33.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 01:51 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #11 - Post: 10:20pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#4 FINANCIAL FREEDOM (ML=4/1)
#2 MONEYBAGS (ML=5/1)

FINANCIAL FREEDOM - The return on investment when Vargas and Graci get together is tremendous. Entered a $4,000 Claiming race at Penn National last race out and raced on a track listed as good finishing fifth. Expect better right here in this race. MONEYBAGS - Last out, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Penn National. Will most certainly do better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CUTTER HELM (ML=2/1), #1A LOVE THAT JAZZ (ML=3/1), #1 GEMS MINESHAFT RVF (ML=3/1),

CUTTER HELM - This favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. GEMS MINESHAFT RVF - You figure that this horse is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 FINANCIAL FREEDOM on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-14-2021, 01:57 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 49

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 G KATE 4/1
# 7 CANDY'S PARADE 5/2
# 4 QUICK HEAT 7/2

G KATE is the top bet in this race. Her 51 average has this filly with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figures in this race. Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. As of late Dominguez has been scorching which may give the edge to this filly. CANDY'S PARADE - Her chances to prove victorious are much better this time out facing this softer lot.

Wednesday 4/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 4/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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