Thursday 4/15/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Lang

Event: (7143) Sepp Straka at (7144) Henrik Norlander
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Sepp Straka -120 FIRST ROUND ONLY
THIS IS A FIRST ROUND PLAY ONLY
Norlander has really struggled as the season has moved on. He looked promising as the season started, but the last 5 tournaments have resulted in 4 missed cuts and a 71st, and the first round has not been kind to him. 78, 71, 80, 71, 72 the last five 1st rounds for him, and he's now 138th in 2021 for first round scoring. Straka is 41st in first round scoring and is 3-1 against Norlander the last four 1st rounds they've played in together since Norlanders slide, and Straka shot 67 here in the summer of 2020 in route to a 27th place finish. I like Sepp Straka to get off to a good start and beat Norlander in round 1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (965) Cleveland Indians at (966) Chicago White Sox
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Total Under 7.5 (-110) Listed Pitchers Must Start

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (965) Cleveland Indians at (966) Chicago White Sox
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Chicago White Sox -150 Action

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Dinamo Zagreb at Villarreal
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Villarreal + UNDER 3.5 Goals (+100)
UEFA Europa League
Villarreal snuck out a 1-0 win in the first leg and it's hard to see anything but a similar style match being played out here. Unai Emery knows how to win in the Europa League as he won three straight Europa League titles with Sevilla just a few years ago.
Villarreal grabbed a 1-0 lead on a penalty just before halftime and then really settled into the second half trying to hold as much possession as possible to limit any chances from Zagreb. It was an important goal being that it was an away goal but it Zagreb can net one it really opens this match back up. Emery will have these guys focused on playing defense first as their best strategy to reach the semifinals.
As the game goes on, Zagreb will have to push forward in attempt to get that goal and if Villarreal haven't scored by then, it should open up the counter attack which just one goal from the Spanish side could but this match to bad as their defense has been so solid in the knockout rounds. They have conceded just one goal in five games and that game against an very strong offensive team in Salzburg.
On the totals side, only one of Villarreal's last 13 games in all competitions has gone Over 3.5 Goals so I like pairing Villarreal with the total here to buy down their current -200 price.
TAKE VILLARREAL + UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Line Parmeter: 4% to -115, 3% to -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (224429) Dinamo Zagreb at (224430) Villarreal
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: 1H Dinamo Zagreb +0.5 (-135)
Dinamo Zagreb are no doubt in a tough place right now after losing last week 1-0 at home to Villarreal, but we believe they can keep things tight on the road here on Thursday in a match they can't afford to get reckless in.
Dinamo Zagreb's road form has been excellent in this competition to date, winning three of their last five outright and losing just once, including keeping a clean sheet in three of those games also. And that's been a noticeable trend for Dinamo Zagreb overall recently too, keeping eleven clean sheets over their last fifteen competitive matchups as they employ a tight defense.
Villarreal are justifiable favorites here, going on to qualify in their last eleven European knockout ties where they hold an advantage from the first leg, but they're not particularly known as fast starters recently, scoring 64.29% of all their goals over their last seven competitive games in the 2nd half.
Take Dinamo Zagreb in the 1st H of Thursday's game to keep things close and shut out Villarreal early in this one.
PLAY: 1H DINAMO ZAGREB +0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andrew McInnis

Event: (57) New York Islanders at (58) Boston Bruins
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 5.0 (-140)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (51) Philadelphia Flyers at (52) Pittsburgh Penguins
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: 1P Total Over 2.0 (+115)
NHL - Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Quick Synopsis: 6th meeting between these two with the previous 5 all going over the full game total but we'll take the 1st period total on this one. 4 of the 5 meetings have had 1st periods going over the total with much of the action/scoring occurring from puck drop. Flyers have gone over the number in 7 of their past 10 away games with 4 of their past 5 first periods going over. There are some first period over 1.5 -155 lines out there but we'll avoid the juice here and give up the push option and take plus money (+115) and over 2.
The Free Play is Over 2.0 +115 First Period Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (224629) Bolivar at (224630) Junior
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 15, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Junior -1.25 (-115)
Bolivar is coming into Barranquilla for this one. I'm not writing another sentence after this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 12	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 70 • Purse: $22,600 • Post: 10:57
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SOUTHERN FAMOUS ONE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. SUMMITT: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. IGOTTA GOOD CANDY: Horse is a first time starter and its mare's win percentage with first timers is at least 50. RELENTLESS ANYWHERE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. LOWDOWN DRIFTER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
2	SOUTHERN FAMOUS ONE	8/1	6/1
6	IGOTTA GOOD CANDY	5/1	7/1
5	SUMMITT	3/1	7/1
1	RELENTLESS ANYWHERE	10/1	7/1
10	LOWDOWN DRIFTER	20/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RELENTLESS ANYWHERE	1	10/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	8.2	0.0	0.0
2	SOUTHERN FAMOUS ONE	2	8/1	Average	0	0	5.1	0.0	0.0
9	EAGLE SCOUT	9	12/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	9.2	0.0	0.0
10	LOWDOWN DRIFTER	10	20/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: DAISY DE BOSS (5/2) [Jockey: Calderon Francisco - Trainer: Whitekiller Matt], LETYOURLITESHINEONUS (15/1) [Jockey: Ramirez Jr F R - Trainer: Charette-Hill Stacy], SUMMITT (3/1) [Jockey: Pulido Juan - Trainer: Heltzel Kelly M],

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park

Oaklawn Park - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 5-9)
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 3:06P
FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 15, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * EAST MOON LAKE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BOO BE RI GHT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DESTINEDTOBEASTAR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. JAMES'S MOONSHINE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start aft er a layoff. SMELLIN CANDY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
9	EAST MOON LAKE	10/1	9/2
10	BOO BE RIGHT	6/1	7/1
3	DESTINEDTOBEASTAR	5/1	7/1
7	JAMES'S MOONSHINE	4/1	9/1
12	SMELLIN CANDY	30/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
13	ROCKTHEPULPIT	13	20/1	Front-runner	71	53	74.6	59.0	42.5
10	BOO BE RIGHT	10	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	69	71	71.6	64.2	51.7
7	JAMES'S MOONSHINE	7	4/1	Stalker	75	67	59.4	59.0	50.5
12	SMELLIN CANDY	12	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	58	62.6	60.2	48.7
9	EAST MOON LAKE	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	80	55.8	68.0	63.0
3	DESTINEDTOBEASTAR	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	68	45.2	66.0	56.0
5	PRINCE LEO	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	69	41.4	49.6	28.1
8	FIRE TWO POINT O	8	10/1	Trailer	66	58	50.2	55.0	38.5
2	EGOMANIAC	2	30/1	Trailer	60	58	31.6	51.3	26.8
14	AFRICAN WARRIOR	14	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	63	50.8	64.6	47.1
1	JIMMIE T	1	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	69	42.6	61.4	44.4
4	GOTTA LOVE IKE	4	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	73	70	37.0	61.6	40.1
6	CINCO CATALINA	6	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	69	69.2	51.9	40.9
11	HAMAZING WISDOM	11	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	61	29.2	59.0	44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SHACKS RIVER 2/1
# 4 LIL HOT TODDY 6/1
# 8 J Z'S FIRST 15/1

I've got to go with SHACKS RIVER. Will almost certainly go to the front end and may never look back. Always tough to beat Gonzalez and Guerrero working together, winning 21 percent of their races. Guerrero and Gonzalez are a potent pair for gains. LIL HOT TODDY - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at her. J Z'S FIRST - This horse could shock this lot at a nice price. Her chances to score are much better this time around facing this softer group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#7 PRINCE LOUIS (ML=4/1)


PRINCE LOUIS - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter trip and should help his winning probability. This jock and handler have a profitable ROI when they combine forces. This gelding has been working out well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a top effort today. Was in a Maiden Special race at Charles Town last time around the track. That race had a class rating of 71 and he is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 IN THE GOSPEL (ML=7/5), #6 CLASSY SMITTY (ML=5/1), #8 LAST PARTY (ML=6/1),

IN THE GOSPEL - You believe this equine is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. CLASSY SMITTY - This was a live one, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to think this one is suspect. Don't feel this horse will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure. LAST PARTY - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued equine.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 PRINCE LOUIS is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 31

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 CIENTIFICO E 2/1
# 4 BATISTA 5/1
# 7 ESCARAMUZA 9/2

My selection here is CIENTIFICO E. Can't overlook the connections here, a 32 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle. BATISTA - His earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at him. Rivera will probably be able to get this horse to break out quickly in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

04/15/21, GP, Race 4, 2.40 ET
04/15/21,GP,4,5F [Turf] 00:53:03 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 15 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500 (Races Where Entered For $8,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five Furlongs) (Rail at 108 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Apache Brave	4/1	Gonzalez E	Baxter Georgina	JT	193	37.31	1.47/$1
097.5781	6	Vision Perfect	5/2	Lopez P	Breen Kelly J.		224	33.04	1.40/$1
097.1694	8	Gran Malbec	5/1	Berrios H I	Dibona Bobby S.	S	193	37.31	1.47/$1
096.7186	4	Colonel Tom	3/1	Zayas E J	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	E	193	37.31	1.47/$1
096.5898	5	Earth	8/1	Arroyo A S	Antonucci Jena M.	FWL	193	37.31	1.47/$1
096.2610	9	Reagan's Heart	30/1	Martinez G A	Ochoa Ernesto	C	224	33.04	1.40/$1
093.9089	1	Marcelino	8/1	Reyes L	Ochoa Ernesto		193	37.31	1.47/$1
093.2005	7	Tenacity Zip	20/1	Maragh R	Santiago Joel		224	33.04	1.40/$1
092.2733	3	Tale of Kantharos	15/1	Prado E S	Klesaris Steve		193	37.31	1.47/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 28.77, ROI 1.00/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.4219
[Category]Condition
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]ActualPostNotGreaterThan9 -with-
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]HorseNotAge2
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Apache Brave	4/1	Gonzalez E	Baxter Georgina	JT	27	22.22	2.31/$1
099.2568	6	Vision Perfect	5/2	Lopez P	Breen Kelly J.		27	22.22	2.31/$1
098.6108	4	Colonel Tom	3/1	Zayas E J	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	FE	27	22.22	2.31/$1
096.7197	8	Gran Malbec	5/1	Berrios H I	Dibona Bobby S.		27	22.22	2.31/$1
095.7511	5	Earth	8/1	Arroyo A S	Antonucci Jena M.	WL	27	22.22	2.31/$1
095.2947	1	Marcelino	8/1	Reyes L	Ochoa Ernesto		398	33.67	0.88/$1
094.0309	9	Reagan's Heart	30/1	Martinez G A	Ochoa Ernesto	C	27	22.22	2.31/$1
093.8218	3	Tale of Kantharos	15/1	Prado E S	Klesaris Steve		27	22.22	2.31/$1
093.4387	7	Tenacity Zip	20/1	Maragh R	Santiago Joel		27	22.22	2.31/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 31.15, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.7432
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]*NotActualPost1AndDistance5fOr51/2f
*Scratches may change this condition