Saturday 4/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:18 AM

Edzo's Saturday Spot Plays for Oaklawn, Keeneland

April 16, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk turns his attention to a trio of key Saturday bets at Oaklawn and Keeneland. Follow Edzo’s plays each week

Oaklawn Park

Race 3 // 2:08 pm ET // claiming // 6 furlongs

#5 Coach Adams (4-1 ML)

His last 5 races around 1 turn are not bad. I know I’m digging a bit, but he drops to a conditioned claimer and could find the right level. Not thrilled with his win rate (3-41), but he’s worth a shot vs. these. Win bet.

Keeneland

Race 5 // 3:18 pm ET // starter allowance // 1 mile (turf)

#2 Fieldstone (12-1 ML)

This is the ‘other’ Joe Sharp trainee, the bigger price next to stablemate #4 Summer Palace. Barn is off to a great start at the Keeneland meet. He’s proven on wet turf if we get that and comes off a troubled trip in his last. There should be speed to run at. Win bet.

Keeneland

Race 7 // 4:24 pm ET // allowance // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#10 Song River (10-1 ML)

While his last race at Gulfstream was against cheaper competition, it was a sneaky-good race. She needs to step up her game and class, but the price will be right. She should get plenty of place to go get. Win bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:19 AM

Race of the Week: Californian at Santa Anita

April 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$200,000 GRADE 2 CALIFORNIAN STAKES AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, April 17, 2021

The Lead:
The steppingstone between the Santa Anita Handicap and the May 31 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita will be held Saturday on a 9-race card that also includes the Mizdirection Stakes for filly and mare turf sprinters. The 1-1/8 miles Californian will give a new cast a chance to audition as Santa Anita Handicap winner Idol will bypass the race and Big 'Cap runner-up Express Train ventures to Arkansas for the same-day Oaklawn Handicap.

Field Depth:
COUNTRY GRAMMER and INDEPENDENCE HALL are both Grade 3 winners, while the latter is Grade 1-placed. ROYAL SHIP was a Group 1 winner in his native Brazil and Grade 2-placed in the US. The others are stepping up significantly in class. INDEPENDENCE HALL has kept the strongest company lines.

Pace:
None of these 5 has ever made the early lead in any of his career races. The pace will be a new-look dynamic for some of these. GROWTH ENGINE with blinkers on from the rail could be sent. MAGIC ON TOP and INDEPENDENCE HALL would be the other most likely candidates to make the front or push the pace.

Our Eyes:
INDEPENDENCE HALL has raced in Grade 1 events in 4 of his last 5 starts, dating back to last year's Florida Derby and through his most recent fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Handicap. Leading jockey Flavien Prat retains the mount on the son of Constitution, who is probably better-suited for the 9 furlongs of the Californian than the Big 'Cap and Gold Cup trips. His third chasing loose-leading Knicks Go in the same-distanced Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream was an effort that would win this.

COUNTRY GRAMMER moves from Chad Brown's dominant east coast barn to Bob Baffert's dominant west coast shedrow. He was sold in January as part of late owner Paul Pompa's dispersal, WinStar Farm signing the check for $110,000. The 4-year-old won Saratoga's rescheduled Peter Pan last summer in advance of the Travers, but has not been to the races since a no-match fifth vs. Tiz the Law et al. COUNTRY GRAMMER has worked right on schedule since the start of March at Santa Anita. His April 4 drill at XBTV.com was his best, but he doesn't look like he's picked up the Baffert brilliance just yet. Still, he could win this 9F as more of a grinder.

GROWTH ENGINE also is a former Chad Brown trainee, purchased last November in a horses of racing age sale for $150,000 by connections who've successfully navigated such waters in the past. John Sadler didn't get much out of this one in a troubled trip March 18 in the Santana Mile, but he's been known to advance the career of modest east coast handicap division runners over the years. Horses like Higher Power and Combatant failed in their first bids for the barn, then rebounded to win their second start for Sadler.

MAGIC ON TAP will be the proverbial 'other Baffert' and likely entered here to help the race fill with 5 entries. He scored an allowance last out after a 1-1/2 years layoff and earned a big 102 BRIS late pace figure. The 2018 Del Mar debut graduate has raced only 4 times as he enters the second quarter of his 5-year-old season.

ROYAL SHIP has had a solid finishing kick on turf, but was last in the Native Diver in his only dirt attempt, albeit at Del Mar. He's likely not up to the top contenders on dirt, but perhaps fits middling in this party of five.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
INDEPENDENCE HALL has a class edge and should handle the trip with what looks to be a modest pace scenario.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GROWTH ENGINE will be the best contender at the best price, which is as well as you can do in a field of 5, when seeking a longshot.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win GROWTH ENGINE. $20 exacta box INDEPENDENCE HALL and GROWTH ENGINE ($40).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:19 AM

Jon White's Apple Blossom Picks and Derby Top 10

April 14, 2021 | By Jon White

It’s understandable that much attention at this time of the year is focused on the upcoming Kentucky Derby on May 1. That being said, many racing enthusiasts are looking forward to the showdown between champions Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver in this Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

These are the two highest-ranking distaffers in the land. Monomoy Girl is No. 3 (behind only 4-year-old colts Mystic Guide and Charlatan) in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Swiss Skydiver ranks No. 4.

The Apple Blossom has attracted a field of six. Monomoy Girl was assigned top weight of 124 pounds, two more than Swiss Skydiver.

The remainder of the field consists of Letruska (118 pounds), Getridofwhatailesu (117), Another Broad (115) and Chance to Shine (114).

Monomoy Girl is a two-time Eclipse Award winner. She was voted champion 3-year-old filly in 2018 and champion older dirt female in 2020. Swiss Skydiver was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly.

Trained by Brad Cox, Monomoy Girl has finished first in 15 of 16 career starts. However, she was disqualified and placed second for causing interference in the Grade I Cotillion at Parx Racing in 2018.

Kenny McPeek trains Swiss Skydiver, who has won six of her last nine, highlighted by a neck victory in last year’s Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Kentucky Derby winner Authentic finished second in the Preakness. Authentic concluded his 3-year-old campaign and racing career with a Breeders’ Cup Classic triumph en route being elected 2020 Horse of the Year. Authentic also was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.

I ranked Swiss Skydiver’s Preakness triumph as the best performance by a Thoroughbred in the United States last year.

My selections for the Apple Blossom are below:

1. Swiss Skydiver
2. Monomoy Girl
3. Letruska
4. Getridofwhatailesu

Yes, it’s true that Monomoy Girl defeated Swiss Skydiver the only time they have met. They faced each other in the Grade I BC Distaff last Nov. 7 at Keeneland. Monomoy Girl won by 1 3/4 lengths as an even-money favorite. Swiss Skydiver, sent away at 2-1, finished seventh, 8 1/4 lengths behind Monomoy Girl.

But as far as Swiss Skydiver’s defeat in the BC Distaff is concerned, I am drawing a line through it. Swiss Skydiver, ridden by Robby Albarado, stumbled at the start. Immediately after the race, Albarado downplayed the fact that Swiss Skydiver did not have the best of starts.

“It maybe cost her a length or two position-wise, but it didn’t cost us the win,” Albarado said.

But it turned out that Swiss Skydiver emerged from the race with an injured heel. It’s possible that might have negatively affected her performance. Four days after the Breeders’ Cup, McPeek tweeted that the filly had injured her heel much worse than originally thought. McPeek went on to write in his tweet that Swiss Skydiver “will rebound in 2021.”

Swiss Skydiver did indeed rebound from her 2020 BC Distaff defeat in her very first 2021 start by winning Santa Anita’s Grade I Beholder Mile by 2 3/4 lengths.

I was so impressed by Swiss Skydiver’s Beholder Mile victory that I’m thinking she has an excellent chance to turn the tables on Monomoy Girl in the Apple Blossom.

Among the other reasons that I’m making Swiss Skydiver my top pick in the Apple Blossom is she:

--Almost certainly will be a better price than Monomoy Girl.

--Has the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 101, compared to 96 for Monomoy Girl.

--Sports the best lifetime Beyer in the field, a 105, while Monomoy has the second-best figure of a 104.

--Owns a better top Oaklawn figure, a 99, than Monomoy Girl’s 96 Beyer in that category.

--Does get to carry two pounds less than Monomoy Girl despite Swiss Skydiver’s superiority to Monomoy Girl in multiple Beyer Speed Figure categories.

CONCERT TOUR DROPS ONE SPOT ON MY TOP 10

Concert Tour went into last Saturday’s Grade I Arkansas Derby as possibly emerging from the race as the Kentucky Derby favorite. But when he finished third to lose for just the first time in four career starts, he took a precipitous drop in popularity.

In a 12-1 upset, Super Stock won the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby going away by 2 1/2 lengths. Caddo River finished second at 3-1, a head in front of Concert Tour.

When Concert Tour previously had won Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 13, he thrashed Super Stock by 6 1/2 lengths and Caddo River by 6 3/4 lengths. Not only did Concert Tour win the Rebel by 4 1/4 lengths, he just cruised home while under wraps, with jockey Joel Rosario repeatedly looking back in the final furlong.

That made it pretty easy to envision Concert Tour winning the Arkansas Derby. And if he won it as comfortably as he had taken the Rebel, he figured to be embraced by a great many bettors in terms of the Kentucky Derby.

There certainly was a chance that an undefeated Concert Tour, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, quite possibly would be the Kentucky Derby favorite instead of an undefeated Essential Quality, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2020 conditioned by Cox. One reason it would not have been surprising for Concert Tour to receive more betting support than Essential Quality on the first Saturday in May is because Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times, whereas Cox has not even had a single starter in the race prior to this year.

As expected by most, Caddo River was hustled to the front early in the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour pushed the pacesetter through the early stages when racing slightly off the lead. The opening quarter was run in :22.62, the half in :46.51. Those were characterized as “lively fractions” in the Equibase chart comments.

From where Concert Tour was at the top of the stretch, he was supposed to go on and win. But after leading by a head at the eighth pole, Concert Tour simply lacked the necessary punch thereafter.

“Whether it’s the first race on a sleepy Thursday at Aqueduct or the Arkansas Derby, pace makes the race,” Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman wrote. “It was paramount here, as a sharp pace set the race up for later runner Super Stock, who got an ideal trip and moved forward in his second start of the year.”

Concert Tour “seemed to be going the better of Caddo River heading into and around the far turn, took awhile to finally push past Caddo River in upper stretch, but was rubber-legged when Super Stock ranged outside him, and he lost the place to a horse he had passed,” Privman also wrote. “Very disappointing for a horse who, had he romped here, might very well have been the Derby favorite. Now, he’s one of the race’s major questions.”

In the wake of his Arkansas Derby setback, Concert Tour has dropped several spots in various Kentucky Derby rankings.

For instance, Concert Tour ranked No. 2 in the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll before the Arkansas Derby. He slipped to No. 6 this week.

BloodHorse’s Byron King had Concert Tour ranked No. 2 prior to the Arkansas Derby. King now has Concert Tour ranked No. 6.

Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin had Concert Tour ranked No. 4 before the Arkansas Derby. Haskin now has Concert Tour ranked No. 11.

Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch had Concert Tour ranked No. 2 before the Arkansas Derby. Marty McGee put Concert Tour’s odds at 9-2. Only Essential Quality had shorter odds at 5-2. Derby Watch now has Concert Tour ranked No. 5, with his price rising considerably to 10-1.

Keep in mind that what NTRA voters, King, Haskin and Derby Watch have done in their rankings reflects the negative reaction by most people to just one loss by Concert Tour.

In my opinion, there might be something of an overreaction to Concert Tour’s Arkansas Derby loss. It’s not as if he got trounced in the Arkansas Derby. He lost by 2 1/2 lengths, not 12 1/2 or 20 1/2.

I learned a long time ago one should not put too much emphasis on a single defeat.

That philosophy was a major reason why I did not jump off Secretariat’s bandwagon in the 1973 Kentucky Derby even after he did not win the Wood Memorial, a defeat that sent shock waves throughout the racing world.

How strong was my belief in Secretariat in the spring of 1973? Consider what I wrote in my high school newspaper, the Lewis and Clark Journal, on March 22, 1973: “Going out on a limb and living dangerously I daresay that 1973 will be a historic year as Secretariat will become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Citation in 1948.”

Regarding what happened in the 1973 Wood Memorial, William Nack wrote: “Secretariat had lost his first race, and was disqualified [from first to second] in the Champagne, but that was all in the past. Few expected Secretariat to ever lose another race. But in his last big prep for the Derby, Big Red did lose.

“In the Wood Memorial, Secretariat’s stablemate Angle Light went straight to the front and never looked back. A new challenger to the supremacy of Secretariat named Sham finished second, and the best Secretariat could do was third.

“Knowledgeable racing fans realize that many races are won by speed horses who are simply not caught by horses who come from behind. But this was the mighty Secretariat? How could it happen?

“Later, trainer Lucien Laurin revealed that an abscess inside Secretariat’s mouth must have caused the horse serious discomfort, possibly accounting for the defeat.”

I think it’s fair to say that is the most famous abscess in the history of Thoroughbred racing.

Of course, as a high school student in Spokane, Wash., I knew nothing of Secretariat’s abscess. But even without knowing about the abscess, I steadfastly stuck with Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby despite his loss in the Wood a fortnight earlier.

“You can’t throw out a horse because of one defeat,” I wrote in the Lewis and Clark Journal on April 25. “It takes more than that. A perfect example is last year when Riva Ridge lost the Everglades but came back strongly to take the Blue Grass Stakes, Kentucky Derby and grueling Belmont Stakes.”

On April 25 (10 days before the race), these were my 1973 Kentucky Derby selections in the Lewis and Clark Journal:

1. Secretariat
2. Sham
3. Stop the Music
4. Angle Light

Secretariat rallied from last to win the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths. He completed 1 1/4 miles in 1:59 2/5, slicing three-fifths of a second off the track record set by Northern Dancer in the 1964 Kentucky Derby. All these years later, Secretariat’s record still stands.

Sham ran fast enough that day to win the vast majority of Kentucky Derbies, but he had to settle for second while finishing eight lengths clear of Our Native in third. Forego (a future three-time Horse of the Year) ran fourth in the field 13. Stop the Music, who I picked third, was not entered in the Kentucky Derby. Angle Light wound up 10th.

I’m not saying that Concert Tour definitely will rebound and win the Kentucky Derby after finishing third in his final start before the race a la Secretariat. But might this happen? You bet it might.

I am not going to judge Concert Tour as harshly as most people are for not winning the Arkansas Derby.

I’m not forgetting the high praise Baffert had for Concert Tour’s Rebel performance, calling it “kind of an American Pharoah-type run.”

American Pharoah kicked off his 3-year-old campaign by splashing home to a 6 1/4-length victory on a sloppy track in the Rebel. And then, unlike Concert Tour, American Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths while on his way to a Triple Crown sweep for Baffert.

American Pharoah recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 100 in the Rebel and 105 in the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour? His top Beyer Speed Figure so far is only a 94. Maybe Concert Tour just is not fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby.

But after giving it much thought and remembering that “you can’t throw out a horse because of one defeat,” I decided to drop Concert Tour only one notch to No. 3 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.

Another reason for not dropping Concert Tour any lower is it would have meant putting him below Hot Rod Charlie. I’m reluctant to put Hot Rod Charlie above Concert Tour because of the rider situation.

Rosario won the Grade II Louisiana Derby aboard Hot Rod Charlie and Grade II Rebel on Concert Tour. Churchill Downs lists Rosario as Concert Tour’s rider for the 147th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby on May 1.

Ron Anderson is Rosario’s agent. Anderson is one of the most accomplished jockey agents to ever take calls. Wouldn’t you think Anderson would have Rosario on Hot Rod Charlie if that’s who the agent felt had the better chance to win the Kentucky Derby? Instead, it’s Flavien Prat who will be Hot Rod Charlie’s pilot that afternoon.

Oh, sure, some will say that the main reason Rosario is riding Concert Tour instead of Hot Rod Charlie is nobody wants to take off a Baffert horse in the Kentucky Derby. But a jockey did just that a couple of years ago.

In 2019, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on Roadster and the Grade I Arkansas Derby aboard Omaha Beach. Despite Roadster being trained by Baffert, Smith opted to ride Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby for Hall of Fame horseman Richard Mandella. Baffert then turned to Florent Geroux to ride Roadster, who finished 16th in the Run for the Roses. Unfortunately for Smith and Mandella, Omaha Beach had to be scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to an entrapped epiglottis.

Meanwhile, you would think people would not be so quick to downgrade Concert Tour so much considering what happened with Authentic last year.

In Authentic’s final start before the Kentucky Derby, he barely won Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Invitational at 1 1/8 miles. There were many doubters as to whether Authentic possessed the stamina needed to win the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. And what happened? Authentic won the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/4 lengths at odds of 8-1. Perhaps people who don’t think Concert Tour can succeed at the 1 1/4-mile trip will regret having that supposition, as was the case last year with Authentic. After all, Concert Tour’s sire, Street Sense, had sufficient stamina to win the Kentucky Derby.

Essential Quality, five for five overall, remains No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. The way I see it, his resume makes him clearly the one to beat. But is Essential Quality a slam-dunk? No.

Rock Your World, who is three for three overall, climbs a notch to No. 2 on my Top 10 this week. He posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when a dominant 4 1/4-length winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Rock Your World is the lone candidate for this year’s Kentucky Derby to have recorded a triple-digit Beyer. That in itself makes him a contender.

I think Hot Rod Charlie, Florida Derby winner Known Agenda and Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Highly Motivated also belong on the list of Kentucky Derby contenders.

But for me, even though Concert Tour finished a disappointing third in the Arkansas Derby, it’s far from out of the realm of possibilities that Baffert finds himself posing with a Concert Tour draped in a garland of roses on the first Saturday in May, just as the colt’s sire did in 2007 for trainer Carl Nafzger.

And don’t forget, in Street Sense’s final start prior to winning the Kentucky Derby, he did not win. He finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Rock Your World
3. Concert Tour
4. Hot Rod Charlie
5. Known Agenda
6. Highly Motivated
7. Medina Spirit
8. Midnight Bourbon
9. Mandaloun
10. Super Stock

RECAP OF SELECTIONS FOR 2021 U.S. POINTS RACES

Of the 21 such races, I have picked the winner in nine of them, as noted below:

Date Race (Selection) Finish, $2 win payoff if applicable

01-30-21 Holy Bull (Greatest Honour) WON, $7.60
01-30-21 Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit), WON, $4.00
02-06-21 Sam F. Davis (Candy Man Rocket), WON, $8.20
02-06-21 Withers (Donegal Bay), finished 7th
02-13-21 Risen Star (Senor Buscador), finished 5th
02-13-21 El Camino Real Derby (Rombauer), WON, $4.40
02-26-21 Battaglia Memorial (Gretzky the Great), finished 3rd
02-27-21 Southwest (Essential Quality), WON, $3.80
02-27-21 Fountain of Youth (Greatest Honor), WON, $4.00
03-06-21 Gotham (Freedom Fighter), finished 4th
03-06-21 Tampa Bay Derby (Hidden Stash), finished 2nd
03-06-21 San Felipe Stakes, Life Is Good, WON, $3.00
03-13-21 Rebel Stakes, Concert Tour, WON, $5.40
03-20-21 Louisiana Derby, Proxy, finished 4th
03-27-21 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Hockey Dad, finished 3rd
03-27-21 Florida Derby, Spielberg, finished 8th
04-03-21 Wood Memorial, Crowded Trade, finished 3rd
04-03-21 Blue Grass Stakes, Essential Quality, WON, $3.00
04-03-21 Santa Anita Derby, Medina Spirit, finished 2nd
04-10-21 Lexington Stakes, Proxy, finished 4th
04-10-21 Arkansas Derby, Concert Tour, finished 3rd

UPDATED STRIKES SITUATION

My Derby Strikes System (DSS) consists of eight categories developed to try and determine a horse’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse does not qualify in one of the categories, the horse gets a strike. The eight categories are listed at the end of this column/blog/article.

A number of the categories in the DSS are associated with the Kentucky Derby being run in May. As a result, when the race was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to the pandemic, it rendered the DSS unworkable.

The DSS has returned in 2021 now that the Kentucky Derby is back to its traditional spot on the calendar.

According to the DSS, going back to 1973 and excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, the vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike.

Since 1973 (again excluding 2020), 39 out of the 48 Kentucky Derby winners (81%) have had zero strikes or one strike, while just seven have had two strikes.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were:

Cannonade (1974) Categories 3 and 4
Ferdinand (1986) Categories 2 and 4
Sea Hero (1993) Categories 3 and 5
Funny Cide (2003) Categories 2 and 8
Giacomo (2015) Categories 2 and 5
Justify (2018) Categories 1 and 8
Country House (2019) Categories 2 and 3

The only Kentucky Derby winner with more than two strikes was:

Mine That Bird (2009) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

It is not until a horse’s next race will be the Kentucky Derby that a horse’s number of strikes can be determined.

These are the points and strikes for horses listed by Churchill Downs as “likely starters” in the Kentucky Derby as of April 12:

Points Horse (Strikes)

140 Essential Quality (0)
110 Hot Rod Charlie (1) Category 4
109 Super Stock (1) Category 3
104 Like the King (0)
102 Known Agenda (0)
100 Rock Your World (2) Categories 1 and 7
100 Bourbonic (2) Categories 1 and 3
74 Medina Spirit (0)
70 Concert Tour (2) Categories 2 and 7
66 Midnight Bourbon (1) Category 4
52 Mandaloun (1) Category 4
50 Highly Motivated (2) Categories 2 and 4
50 Helium (1) Category 5
40 Soup and Sandwich (2) Categories 2 and 7
40 Dynamic One (3) Categories 1, 2 and 4
40 Sainthood (2) Categories 2 and 7

These are “possible starters within the Top 20 preference list,” according to Churchill:

50 Caddo River (2) Categories 2 and 4
40 Panadol (2) Categories 2 and 7
40 Crowded Trade (3) Categories 2, 4 and 7
34 Rombauer (3) Categories 1, 2 and 3

Listed as “next up in order of preference” by Churchill:

32 Hidden Stash (2) Categories 2 and 5
30 Dream Shake (3) Categories 2, 4 and 7
25 O Besos (2) Categories 2 and 3
20 Get Her Number (3) Categories 3, 4 and 5
20 Hozier (3) Categories 2, 3 and 5
20 King Fury (4) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 6
20 Hockey Dad (2) Categories 2 and 4
18 Keepmeinmind (2) Categories 3 and 5
14 Nova Rags (3) Categories 2, 4 and 5
13 Unbridled Honour (3) Categories 2, 3 and 4

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

After C Z Rocket won Oaklawn’s Grade III Count Fleet Sprint Handicap last Saturday, he is No. 9 after not being Top 10 last week.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 346 Mystic Guide (24)
2. 317 Charlatan (7)
3. 313 Monomoy Girl (5)
4. 296 Swiss Skydiver (1)
5. 239 Knicks Go
6. 213 Colonel Liam
7. 179 Idol
8. 97 Gamine
9. 89 C Z Rocket
10. 56 Maxfield

After Super Stock won the Arkansas Derby, he debuts at No. 7 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 366 Essential Quality (34)
2. 266 Rock Your World
3. 261 Hot Rod Charlie (1)
4. 253 Known Agenda (1)
5. 158 Highly Motivated
6. 144 Concert Tour
7. 138 Super Stock
8. 101 Medina Spirit
9. 66 Life Is Good (1)
10. 57 Greatest Honour

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:19 AM

Your Final Kentucky Derby Prep

April 15, 2021 | By Johnny D

It’s roughly 14 more sleeps (catnaps not included) until they run America’s most important race the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby. The Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and a few other stateside events are worth more money, but the Run for the Roses remains the Holy Grail for the majority of racing folk, including breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, stable and farm hands.

Horseplayers, also, find particular delight in cashing a ticket on the Kentucky Derby. Even though it’s often effectively argued that money earned via an $11 mutuel payoff on the Derby winner spends much the same as an equivalent return on the first one home in the fourth at Podunk Downs, there’s a certain je ne sais quoi that accompanies Kentucky Derby wagering success.

Perhaps it’s the race’s uniqueness—20 sophomores going one mile and one-quarter on dirt in a race first run 10 years after the Civil War. Maybe it’s the Twin Spires…Mint Juleps...The Infield…Millionaires Row…“My Old Kentucky Home”…The Walk? Take your pick. It’s special. Nothing like it. Anywhere.

Larger purses elsewhere? Sure. A lot larger. This year’s Kentucky Derby bounty is $3 million. That’s a nice chunk of change but still a hefty $17 million short of the Gr. 1 Saudi Cup treasure trove in the world’s richest horse race. Of course, in 2021, Saudi’s had an extra $10 million in purse money lying around from the 2020 edition because they still haven’t paid connections of winner Maximum Security, pending an investigation related to assorted federal charges against trainer Jason Servis regarding illegal substances. Of course, on that front, the Kentucky Derby inadvertently outdid the Saudi Cup in the 2019 Kentucky Derby when stewards immediately disqualified Maximum Security for interference. The winner’s share of the purse that year went to original runner-up Country House.

The 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic purse was $6 million—twice that of the Kentucky Derby! But go ahead and poll America’s horseracing community and they’ll choose winning the Derby over the Classic (or Saudi Cup) in a landslide. Why? Because money isn’t everything? Not exactly. It’s more because the Derby is everything.

Since 1876, kids have gone to sleep dreaming about winning the Kentucky Derby. Adults, too. As Hall-of-Fame jockey Chris McCarron once explained, “It’s the first thing people ask when they hear you’re a jockey, ‘Have you ever won the Kentucky Derby?’ Thankfully, I can answer ‘yes.’ Then they’re really impressed.”

Likewise, at this time of year, ‘Who do you like in the Derby?’ is what horseplayers commonly hear from friends and acquaintances. And we desperately want to have the right answer. Not because they’re liable to rush out and wager on our tout. No, it’s a matter of pride. Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby is akin to the Bambino calling his shot—pointing toward the bleachers and then landing one there.

Surprisingly often folks remember which horse you picked, especially if you’re correct. Then you’re rewarded with props and amazement usually reserved for holed 25-foot putts or successful Final Jeopardy questions.

Two weeks out, how best should we proceed in order to have the Derby winner’s name on the tip of our tongues? Good question. You’ve obviously watched (and maybe wagered) on the prep races, especially the 16 included in the Championship Series. If you’ve missed any of those, visit Xpressbet’s Replay section and check them out.

A close review of the past performances of the runners is critical. Read all you can about possible Derby starters because you may pick up an angle or two that could help in solving the puzzle. Xpressbet’s FREE Kentucky Derby Wager Guide will be available online beginning Friday, April 23, and will be updated the following week. That’s a great resource for information, including selections, wagering strategies and workout analysis from nationwide racing experts. Plus, the Guide’s FREE and worth twice the price!

Since this is your final prep before the Derby, it’s a good idea to rank runners according to the following criteria:
Who Can Win?
Who Can Finish In the Money?
Who Can You Toss?

With 20 Derby starters, you can’t use them all. Gotta break some eggs, i.e. toss horses from your tickets. Ranking them in the above categories is the best way to get a feel for who you want, who you need and who you can live without.

Here’s a quick look at a few worth including in your ‘Who Can Win?’ Category.

There were 36 total races awarding U.S.-based points toward spots in the Kentucky Derby starting gate and from the very beginning—the fourth race on the schedule in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile--Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie gave us a preview of what might happen six months later in Louisville.

Just three horses won at least two of those 36 Derby points races: Life is Good (2), Greatest Honour (2) and Essential Quality (4). Only the latter will be in the Louisville starting gate. Essential Quality is the race favorite and with good reason. He won the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity in October and the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, both at Keeneland; the Gr. 3 Southwest at Oaklawn in February and the Gr. 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland in April. That’s about as pretty a Derby prep race schedule as you’ll see. Oh, and let’s not forget that he also broke maiden first time out at Churchill Downs, site of the Kentucky Derby. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved steadily from a 69 earned in the maiden score to a 97 posted last out in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass.

Hot Rod Charlie came tantalizingly close to defeating Essential Quality in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile in November. At massive 94-1 odds, he took the lead in the stretch and was caught by the Derby favorite in the final yards. Since racing two turns on dirt, this son of Oxbow has won two races, been second by three-quarters of a length and third by a neck. One win was in a maiden race going one mile at Santa Anita, while the other efforts came in graded stakes races from California to Louisiana. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved race-by-race, from a low of 51, first out going five furlongs, to a high of 99, last out in the Louisiana Derby, without a regression. That shows outstanding development from two to three.

Rock Your World is the most interesting ‘now’ horse. Unbeaten in three starts, his first two tallies came on Santa Anita turf, going six furlongs and one mile. He announced his presence on the Kentucky Derby scene with authority in a more than four-length, wire-to-wire victory over favored Bob Baffert runner Medina Spirit in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyer Speed Figure of 100 is the highest earned by any Derby starter (Hot Rod Charlie earned 99 in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby and Essential Quality posted a career high of 97 in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass). Have we already seen the best this son of Candy Ride has or is there more in the tank for trainer John Sadler and jockey Umberto Rispoli to tap? There’s no way of knowing. That’s why with him you should get decent odds. The speed and ‘stick’ he displayed in Arcadia fits the profile of many recent Derby winners—use a high cruising speed to discourage pursuers. However, he’s still green, understandably so, with just three races under his belt. He was late to change leads in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby stretch and then jumped back to his left lead with a sixteenth of a mile to go. Ultimately, style points don’t count, who gets there first does, and he powered away late like extra distance won’t matter.

Bottom line, no matter what it pays, cashing a ticket on the winner of the Derby is not the same as hitting any other race. You’ve got to be a racing expert to pick the winner of the Derby (at least that’s what we tell ourselves when we’re correct), any old horseplayer can cash a ticket at Podunk Downs. Both are fun, but one is more gratifying than the other.

It’s time for your final Derby prep. Are you ready?

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:20 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

April 17, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, there are 13-races set to go at the Meadowlands in what should be a competitive card. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Friday, seven times the leader at the 3/4 pole went on to win. In four of the 13 races the winner was within three lengths of leader at the 3/4 pole.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

5-JL Cruz (3-1)-This 10-year-old has won 27 of 65 starts at M1 but has been off since 3-30, actually has only raced twice since 3-6. Cruz has shown the ability to come up with big efforts after missing time. Dunn should be in the pocket or on the point and it's best to respect.
7-Scirocco Rob (5/2)-Comes off a dominant win at this class and before that did captured three straight versus Open Handicap company. Can win off cover or on the engine. Should be tough to beat with a similar effort as last week.

Race 7

1-Italian Delight N (9/2)-Cashed a 3rd place check after missing a start and could be forwardly placed by TMac. Shouldn't blush at this field and might be in line for an efficient trip. Can offer a square price and may seal the deal this time.
2-Thatswhatisaid N (8-1)-Was racing well until scratched sick on 3-20 and then faced tougher. Drops to a spot to shine and will take a swing for some value. Tetrick takes a seat and the Lare barn has been batting 27% over the past 30 days.
9-Harambe Deo (3-1)-Twice beaten chalk drops to a soft spot and even with the outside post should be bet. Has the gate speed to get the point but TMac may want to duck and move later, either trip could work.

Race 8

6-April Ava (9/2)-Finished behind #1 and #2 in last but did the heavy lifting on the front end and was passed by those in the 2-3 holes. Gingras will get a good seat but this time he might be doing the following and pop out down the lane.
7-Beyond Words N (3-1)-New Zealand import qualified in 153 with a 54.1 back half and a 25.3 last quarter. This will be only the 10th lifetime start but appears ready for a winning US debut. Dunn needs a good early seat and there could be some leaving from the center of the gate.
10-Sweet Lucy Lou (6-1)-Has been stuck with post 9 in the last two and now draws worse. Has been trying hard but will need a lively pace and my bet is that will happen. Lucy needs some help but the price should be better than recent starts.

Race 9

2-Always And Again (10-1)-Had a dull effort in last start but before that was a threat against solid foes for quite a while. Comes out of the same race as #7, the back half was swift and this field may not be as tough. Draws inside of main foes and might be overlooked at the windows.
5-Splash Brother (6-1)-Four-year-old makes season debut after banking over $300k last year. Tuned up at PcD in 150.4 all on his own and drew off by 14 lengths. Has a perfect 2 for 2 record at the Big M, McDonald steered in the qualifier and is back tonight.
7-Nicholas Beach (9/2)-Raced big last week and was just nipped at this class after winning its season debut. Has been in sharp form and could be better in the 3rd start off the bench. Sears steers as Joe B drives #4 the barn's other entry.
9-Justasec N (3-1)-Aussie invader comes off a sharp qualifier on Lasix at M1 on 4-10. Paced the back half in a hot 54.1 and tonight the biggest concern might be the post draw. But it's tough to leave off the ticket in a race without a true standout.

0.50 Early Pick 4

5,7/1,2,9/6,7,10/2,5,7,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/17/21

April 17, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Goldini; 7-Swift as I Am

Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato’s Swift as I Am and Goldini square off again in this starter optional claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds, with preference on top to the former after a nightmarish trip last month that was primarily caused by his stable mate. In that race, Swift as I Am launched what appeared to be a winning move along the rail entering the stretch but then had to check sharply and lose all chance when the carelessly ridden Goldini came over and shut him off. With F. Prat staying aboard Swift as I Am along with the always-popular blinkers off angle, the son of Danza seems destined for a better fate today, especially in a race that has sufficient early speed signed on to compliment the proper patient ride he is certain to enjoy. Goldini makes a monumental jockey switch to U. Rispoli, has trained extremely well since his last outing, and is another that appears likely to improve. The son of Goldencents was favored over this group last time out after winning over this course and distance when breaking his maiden two runs back, and not much more will be needed today to get back on the winning track. We will include both in rolling exotic play and then have an extra ticket or two keying Swift as I Am on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Kennebec; 6-Me Likey

Forecast: Me Likey takes a significant class drop, removes blinkers, and lands the cozy outside post in this modest $16,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. The son of Square Eddie looked good in a recent five-furlong workout, so we are expecting the D. O’Neill-trained colt to return to his best form. Kennebec is the likely choice and one to beat. The R. Hanson-trained sophomore plummets in class, switches to F. Prat, shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like and is solid in the speed figure department. There may not a lot of value to be found at his morning line of 8/5 but in a soft field he is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Joe Don Looney; 4-Theluteismine

Forecast: Theluteismine returns to the main track, tries an easier gang and probably beats this starter optional claiming field with a repeat of his maiden-claiming win two runs back. The P. Miller/F. Prat trainer-jockey combo is lethal (35%), and the gelding’s recent San Luis Rey Downs work tab appears steady and healthy. Joe Don Looney is solid in the speed figure department and may be quick enough to establish the pace in this abbreviated sprint. The son of Boisterous exits a better-than-par race for the level and with any kind of forward move should be the one to fear most. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Western Smoke; 6-Betito

Forecast: Western Smoke projects as the controlling speed from his inside draw in this main track miler for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming older horses. The C. Dollase-trained gelding ran well when second under these conditions three races back, and in a race with suspect late speed he may be able to grab control early and hang on late. Betito is wheeled back quickly after graduating over this track and distance two weeks ago with a speed figure that makes him a strong fit right back. The K. Mulhall-trained gelding picks up F. Prat and projects to draft into a soft pace-stalking position and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Superstition; 5-Leggs Galore

Forecast: Leggs Galore moves into open company after a pair of impressive turf sprint stakes wins vs. state-bred foes. Based strictly on speed figures, the daughter of Bayern should be capable of handling this tougher assignment. Extremely quick but capable of stalking and pouncing if the race flow dictates, the P. D’Amato-trained filly may have to deal with the one-dimensional front-runner Annangel during the early stages but her outside draw will allow regular rider R. Gonzalez to assess the situation and then decide whether to open up or take hold. Superstition, winner of the Wishing Well S. over the local lawn two months ago, likely will settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance when then pressure is turned on. The lightly raced daughter of Ghostzpper retains regular pilot F. Prat and has speed figures that make her the one to fear most. We will give the edge on top to Leggs Galore but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:47 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Achilleus; 4-Big Well; 7-Mount Pelliar

Forecast: Here’s a messy $30,000 maiden claiming main track miler with nothing to trust, so the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. We will try to survive and advance using just three, with a very slight edge on top to Achilleus. A first-time gelding from the J. Sadler barn, he was well-beaten in both of his starts to date but is facing an infinitely easier group today while trying dirt for the first time and adding blinkers. The work tab looks decent, so if the son of Super Saver can run at all, this would be a good place to show it. Big Well is another tackling easier with every right to improve in his first start since early January (he was a late scratch in late February). The son of Mr. Big gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy A. Centeno and has numbers that make him a strong fit. Mount Pelliar is an eight-race maiden dropping to his lowest level. This will be his first start on the main track; however, his pedigree is grass-on-grass, so the surface switch might not do him any favors. He is the 9/5 morning line favorite and appears shaky at that price, so we will toss him in on a ticket or two for protection but that’s all.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ce Ce; 4-Happier

Forecast: Ce Ce, freshened since finishing a respectable fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 in November, returns in this second-level allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares against a group of fillies and mares that she should be able to outclass. Back with regular rider V. Espinoza, the daughter of Elusive Quality has trained like she is fit and ready, has fired huge off layoffs in the past, and can sprint just as well as she can route. If she can negotiate a decent trip from the rail, the M. McCarthy-trained mare can be along in time. Happier, unbeaten in two starts and extremely fast on speed figures, surely will get plenty of play as the 8/5 morning line favorite. The daughter of Street Sense, freshened since mid-February but training in superb fashion in the interim, projects as the controlling speed, with only stable mate Himiko drawn outside appearing capable of applying early pressure. We doubt trainer B. Baffert wants to see them go head-and-head, so it will be interesting to see how the pace flow is choreographed.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Country Grammar; 4-Royal Ship; 5-Independence Hall

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Californian-G3 over nine furlongs on the main track attracted just five starters, with at least three (and maybe all five) capable of winning. We will pass the race but use the three main players in our rolling exotics. Independence Hall probably does not want to run this far but projects as the controlling speed and if not pressured early could dominate gate-to-wire. The son of Constitution was unable to see out the Big ‘Cap’s 10-furlong trip when weakening late to finish fourth, but at this shorter journey against this slightly lesser group he seems the logical top pick. Additionally, the M. McCarthy-trained colt has never looked better in the morning leading up to this race. Country Grammar, winner of the Peter Pan S.-G3 last summer at Saratoga, makes his first start for new trainer B, Baffert while wearing blinkers for the first time, and like Independence Hall has trained superbly in recent weeks to appear fit and ready. The son of Tonalist may display more tactical speed with the hood on and could prove troublesome if he has ‘Hall within range at the head of the lane. Also worth including is Royal Ship, a fast-finishing fifth (beaten one length) in the Kilroe Mile-G1 over a mile on grass last time out. The Brazilian-bred gelding gets an extra furlong to work with, and if he can transfer his grass form to the main track (and his workouts suggest he can) the R. Mandella-trained import may make some noise in closing stages at a nice price.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Bay Witch; 3-Sweet Sonny; 5-Rowangoeshollywood; 11-La Vie

Forecast: The finale is an inscrutable maiden claiming $25,000 abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares. Anything goes. Rowangoeshollywood, away since last summer and with just two previous starts against tougher foes, has worked well enough to be fit for a good effort in her comeback. She is fast enough on numbers to win, but this will be her first start on dirt so we are not sure if the figures will hold up. She represents stranger danger, so you have to use her. Sweet Sonny is an eight-race maiden and probably not one to trust but she has numbers that fit, will appreciate the shortened trip, and could get brave on the front end if she is able to make the lead. The same can be said for La Vie, who has plenty of zip but so far has not shown much stamina. This five and one-half furlong distance may help her stick around a bit longer and if so, she should be able to act with these. Bay Witch has the always-dangerous straight maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop on her resume and could improve enough to be a factor, rail and all. Her speed figures are weak, but she continues to train like a filly with at least some ability.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 4/17/21

April 17, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Gulfstream Park – Eighth Race – Post time: 4:18 ET
8-Mr. Briggs (5/2)

First-starter from the T. Pletcher barn has done some excellent recent work at the Palm Beach Downs training center and looks primed and ready to score at first asking in this maiden special weight one-turn miler. Drawn comfortably outside in a field that lacks quality, the son of Super Saver has plenty of early speed but will have the option of popping and going or stalking and pouncing depending upon the race flow. There is plenty of value to be found in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at or near his morning line of 5/2.

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Keeneland – Ninth Race – Post time: 5:30 ET
2-Say the Word (7/2)

Has earned triple-digit Beyer speed figures in three of his last four starts and is sitting on a monster effort after narrowly missing when closing fastest of all behind United in the San Luis Rey Stakes-G3 at Santa Anita last month. The son of More Than Ready has looked especially sharp in a pair of workouts since that outing and arrives at Keeneland ready to win in this year’s edition of the Elkhorn S.-G2 over a turf course we know he likes. At 7/2 on the morning line, he is a win play and rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:20 AM

AI Picks: Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow 6 Payout

April 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Gulfstream Park offers a mandatory payout in Saturday’s Rainbow 6 jackpot pool, which is expected to reach more than $3 million. If you haven’t been following the action in South Florida since the end of the Championship Meet, or aren’t a regular betting Gulfstream.

Race 7 (3:46 PM ET) // claiming // 1 mile (turf)

12 – Aloha Kitten (21%W // 36%P // 44%S)
13 – (13%W // 25%P // 40%S)
8 – (13%W // 21%P // 31%S)
5 – (12%W // 27%P // 35%S)

Comments: Top choice Aloha Kitten is 12-1 morning line, and the 8-point spread to the rest is the second-largest in the Rainbow 6 sequence. The algorithm isn’t backing 7-2 morning line favorite Pretty Rachel.

Race 8 (4:18 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 1 mile

2 – Taita (22%W // 41%P // 57%S)
7 – Billy Yank (21%W // 34%P // 57%S)
4 – Emperor’s Cause (13%W // 30%P // 42%S)
6 – Ben Copenhagen (12%W // 27%P // 44%S)

Comments: The 1/ST BET app relies on past performance data, so first-time starters fail to fill in a large number of blanks. You’ll certainly want to consider #8 Mr. Briggs in this spot, a promising rookie for Todd Pletcher. Class-riser Billy Yank is 12-1 morning line and among the top AI picks.

Race 9 (4:50 PM ET) // claiming // 7-1/2 furlongs (turf)

2 – Projected (20%W // 33%P // 43%S)
12 – Notsosubtle (20%W // 23%P // 35%S)
10 – Cash Call Kitten (14%W // 23%P // 30%S)
7 – Harbour Master (7%W // 16%P // 32%S)

Comments: There’s a solid drop-off after the top 3 in this race and could make for a 3-deep consideration. The 8-1 price on Projected appeals, while the AI picks don’t include 7-2 morning line favorite All Good.

Race 10 (5:22 PM ET) // optional claiming // 6 furlongs

4 – Reservenotattained (31%W // 46%P // 62%S)
3 – Uncork the Bottle (17%W // 35%P // 47%S)
6 – Ludington (14%W // 28%P // 47%S)
1 – Life in Shambles (14%W // 25%P // 34%S)

Comments: No doubt the single in the Rainbow 6, according to the 1/ST BET app, is this top choice at 31%. It’s the highest win probability in the sequence and the 14-point spread to the second choice also is the widest among these races.

Race 11 (5:54 PM ET) // optional claiming // 1 mile (turf)

5 – Advanced Strategy (26%W // 39%P // 48%S)
7 – Cairo Campaign (19%W // 28%P // 48%S)
4 – Everyonelovejames (11%W // 24%P // 26%S)
2 – Mystic Lancelot (9%W // 17%P // 24%S)

Comments: The 26% win projection here is second-highest in the Rainbow 6 today and the top 2 AI picks separate themselves quite a bit from the rest. Budget-conscious players may want to narrow the ticket here to just a couple.

Race 12 (6:26 PM ET) // maiden claiming // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

10 – Secrets Kept (18%W // 44%P // 52%S)
4 – Time Sensitive (12%W // 29%P // 35%S)
1 – Metafora (12%W // 21%P // 35%S)
3 – Hardly Social (12%W // 19%P // 25%S)

Comments: This is a classic ‘single or spread’ situation when you look at the race and your options. Secrets Kept has some separation from the rest and there’s a cluster that are difficult to choose between and require spreading on the ticket. Depending on your opinions in other races and budget options, choose wisely. Singling Secrets Kept may prove a prudent move.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:21 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Leggs Galore It has been fun watching her since she moved to the turf, scoring in five straight races without many serious challenges. She draws well on the outside and figures to go for it again early. Loved her last.
#2 Superstition Has enough pace to be able to sit close early with this group, as she has been up on some very fast splits in recent races. She might be a bit overbet.
#4 Biddy Duke Should be right up on the pace with the blinkers going on today, but she might be just a slight cut below the top pair. Underneath.
Race Summary Leggs Galore has the kind of pace that can discourage chasers, and she has obviously found her home on the grass. Not sure how long she can hold this type of form, but if it's her new baseline, look out.

Santa Anita - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Big Well Didn't show much on the turf, but his sire has been quite a bit better with dirt routers than turf routers in recent years, so the surface switch might wake him up.
#8 Coastal King He looks like the type of horse who should stretch out, but the barn isn't great with moving runners around two turns. Concerns here, but he's in the mix.
#3 Achilleus Gets close to the kitchen sink today as he drops in class while racing as a first time gelding and adding blinkers. Maybe that works.
Race Summary Likely favorite #7 Mount Pelliar has every right to handle these in the main-track debut, but there isn't a ton of appeal for me. Big Well should be a fair price to try and beat that one.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Independence Hall He was stretched a bit late when going 10f in the Santa Anita Handicap, so the cutback should be welcome. Prat dominates this kind of short-field dirt route race locally. His losses have been in good races behind some horses like Charlatan, Knicks Go and Tiz the Law.
#3 Country Grammer Like him a bit in an allowance last weekend that he scratched out of, but I'm just not sure he's quite up to the class test of a horse like Independence Hall. That said,
#2 Magic on Tap He was pretty impressive off the bench when settling in the pocket and finishing on the inside, and he can probably move forward a bit off the year+ layoff comeback win.
Race Summary Independence Hall has a couple Bafferts to worry about, but his class should shine through today with by far the colony's best rider in this type of compact dirt route field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:21 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 TIE YOUR SHOE ED Upset possibility if he gets early position from post 8.
#5 OUR LITTLE GENERAL A Willing third two back, couldn't keep pace last out at Yonkers.
#1 WESTERN BAYAMA Rallied for minor awards in last three starts, draws the rail.
Race Summary Taking a longshot stab on Tie Your Shoe Ed, who chased the 5-2 winner through solid fractions and held second on a day when the track played slow. His outside post is offset by a 20-1 morning line. Play a 1-5-8 exacta box.

Meadowlands - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 SCIROCCO ROB Handled preferred company with ease, loves to win.
#2 BUCK DANCER Moved early two back, broke stride in latest after three-peat in Canada.
#5 JL CRUZE Classy, versatile, ran win total to 44 with Dunn in bike.
Race Summary Scirocco Rob had the leader measured and won with something left against several of the same rivals he meets tonight. He is a disqualification away from a five-race winning streak. Let's make him today's Best Bet.

Northfield Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 GONNA FLY Better post, expect better result in amateur drivers' race.
#5 GO GO GEORGE Much improved of late, value remains in gimmick wagers.
#1 HEIDI'S HEART Left too much work to do from post 7, takes catching tonight.
Race Summary Gonna Fly rallied for a pair of thirds from outside posts, then trotted evenly in a fast heat. He should run past these for his 29th victory. Play a 3/1,5/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 08:21 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 Express Train Was caught just before the wire in the G1 Big Cap and has won the G2 San Pasqual in easy fashion; much-improved as a 4-year-old and can adjust to any pace under sharp pilot Juan Hernandez.
#1 Silver State Has won four straight, including the Essex last out; has been very well spotted in his races and would not be a surprise here.
#8 Silver Prospector Has been a decent late mover and comes off a non-threatening second in the Razorback; rider Cabrera has been extremely hot over the past two weeks and will have this one rolling.
Race Summary Express Train has come into his own as a 4-year-old and can go with the flow under any pace circumstances; lost at the wire going 1 1-4 miles but can finish well at this distance of 1 1-8 miles.

Oaklawn Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#2 Swiss Skydiver Won the G1 Beholder Mile last month and is more than ready to take on the veteran mares in earnest; didn't do a lot of running against winner Monomoy Girl and others in the G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, and that was an anomaly. It's rare when she doesn't bring his best, and her training indicates she's ready for a top effort.
#6 Monomoy Girl You have to love this amazing mare who is 14 of 16 and consistently powers past her opponents; she could meet her match in Swiss Skydiver in this one, but we can't be surprised if she runs right on by. At the age of 6, she's still the Queen. Even if she loses, she won't have to give up that throne.
#3 Letruska Missed by a head in the G2 Azeri and is probably running as well as she ever have; it would be an upset if she stays, but with Irad Ortiz, Jr., up, you won't get what you deserve if she actually pulls it off.
Race Summary Swiss Skydiver has done very little wrong, and the one time she did give her all was when she faced Monomoy Girl in the Distaff; there's no doubt Swiss Skydiver is infinitely better than she showed that day and will dig in when challenged late.

Oaklawn Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#10 Flying Business Has speed and can her rider can get a good look at how this develops; she has speed but also can settle like she did last time, when she came from just off the pace and won late. Was claimed by Swearingen and can run back to that one.
#4 Ragtagtag Has speed and like the top choice showed she can come from just off the pace last out; was claimed by Chleborad and is well spotted here.
#1 Pick Up the Fone Was claimed by Asmussen two back and won for the new barn last out; has speed and will be a force along the rail. Could be tough to catch.
Race Summary Flying Business comes in off an impressive win and can carve out a good trip here; has been game and can dig in when asked.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 02:04 PM

555UTAH -556 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) in home games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons.

559CLEVELAND -560 CHICAGO
CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

561GOLDEN STATE -562 BOSTON
GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

563MEMPHIS -564 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

565SAN ANTONIO -566 PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after a division game in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 02:05 PM

NBA

Saturday, April 17

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah @ LA Lakers
Utah
Utah is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games

Detroit @ Washington
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Cleveland @ Chicago
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Golden State @ Boston
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Golden State
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Memphis @ Milwaukee
Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Memphis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games
Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

San Antonio @ Phoenix
San Antonio
San Antonio is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games on the road
Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-17-2021, 02:05 PM

NBA

Saturday, April 17

Utah @ LA Lakers
Jazz (42-14)
— Utah won four of its last five games.
— Jazz is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.
— Under is 4-1 in Utah’s last five road games.

Lakers (34-22)
— Lakers are 3-4 SU in their last seven games.
— Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last six games at Staples.
— Over is 5-1 in their six games overall.

— Lakers won four of last five series games.
— Utah is 1-3 ATS in last four series games played here.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Detroit @ Washington
Pistons (17-39)
— Detroit lost 10 of its last 15 games
— Pistons are 12-7-1 ATS since the All-Star break.
— Under is 6-4 in Detroit’s last ten road games.

Wizards (22-33)
— Wizards won five of last six games SU (5-1 ATS last six).
— Wizards are 4-2 ATS in last six home games.
— Under is 9-4 in their last 13 games

— Wizards won four of last six series games.
— Pistons are 0-4 ATS in last four series games.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Cleveland @ Chicago
Cavaliers (20-35)
— Cleveland split its last six games SU.
— Cavaliers covered their last three road games.
— Five of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.

Bulls (22-33)
— Chicago lost its last five games SU (0-4 SU).
— Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
— Over is 5-1 in their last six games.

— Bulls won three of last four series games.
— Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in last six visits here.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games played here.

Golden State @ Boston
Warriors (28-28)
— Golden State won five of its last six games SU.
— Warriors are 2-5 ATS in last seven road games.
— Under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games.

Celtics (30-26)
— Boston won seven of its last eight games.
— Celtics are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 home games.
— Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

— Celtics won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Golden State is 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Boston.
— Last ten series games stayed under the total.

Memphis @ Milwaukee
Grizzlies (28-26)
— Memphis lost three of its last five games SU.
— Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in last 16 games overall.
— Over is 6-1 in last seven Memphis games.

Bucks (35-20)
— Milwaukee won its last three games SU.
— Bucks are 1-5ATS in last six home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Over is 12-7 in Milwaukee’s last 19 games.

— Bucks won five of last seven series games.
— Grizzlies are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Milwaukee.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

San Antonio @ Phoenix
Spurs (26-28)
— San Antonio lost 12 of its last 16 games.
— Spurs are 7-2 ATS in last nine road games.
— Over is 12-5 in Spurs’ last sixteen games.

Suns (40-15)
— Phoenix won 32 of its last 39 games (4-5 ATS last nine).
— Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

— San Antonio won eight of last ten series games.
— Spurs are 3-2-1 ATS in last six visits to Phoenix.
— Three of last four series games went over.