Thursday 4/22/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Apr 22 '21, 7:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Flyers vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -150 at Mirage

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rangers -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Apr 22 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Suns vs Celtics
Play on: OVER 219½ -110

1 Dimer on Suns vs Celtics over 219½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Apr 22 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Pelicans vs Magic
Play on: Pelicans -8½ -115 at linepros

Free Play on Pelicans -8½ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Apr 22 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Mariners vs Red Sox
Play on: Mariners +151 at pinnacle

FREE PICK - Seattle Mariners +151
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 911
I will roll the dice with the Mariners as a big +151 underdog in Thursday's road game against the Red Sox. I think we are getting quite the value with Seattle at this price. The Mariners will have Justin Dunn on the mound. He had a rough first start, where he walked 8, but he only allowed 1 hit. He was much better in his second outing, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings at Baltimore.
I also think there's value here because of how good Boston starter Nick Pivetta looks on paper. Pivetta is 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA in 3 starts. Thing is, the advanced stats don't match up, as he's got a 4.30 FIP and 5.42 xFIP. He's also struggled big time with control, walking 11 in 14 2/3 innings of work.
Mariners are 8-3 in Dunn's last 11 starts as a dog and 6-1 in his last 7 as a road dog. Give me Seattle +151!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Apr 22 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
NBA | 76ers vs Bucks
Play on: Bucks -6 -110 at Draft Kings

1* Free Play on Bucks -6 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Apr 22 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | SEA vs BOS
Play on: OVER 9 -116

1* Free Pick on Mariners/Red Sox over 9 -116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Apr 22 '21, 7:38 PM in 2h
NHL | Stars vs Red Wings
Play on: UNDER 5½ -128

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.
We saw a rare high-scoring affair between these two teams on Tuesday as the Stars skated to a 5-2 victory on home ice. I expect a return to 'normal' on Thursday night as the scene shifts to Detroit for the third of four consecutive games between these two teams. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Stars have gone on the road after scoring four goals or more in a home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.1 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go a perfect 9-0 when the Red Wings are seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more this season with an average total of 4.2 goals in that spot. Of course, the Stars are in line for some regression after scoring 19 goals over the course of a five-game homestand. Note that they average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. The 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Detroit and we've yet to see consecutive 'over' results in this series this season. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Apr 22 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Mets vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs +102 at pinnacle

It took 17 games, but it now appears the underachieving Cubs offense has arisen from their season-long slumber. Beating the Mets, 16-4, on Wednesday should be an indication of that.
Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ and Willson Contreras are too good of hitters for the Cubs to rank 30th in batting.
Am I putting too much emphasis on just one game by backing the Cubs here? I don't think so given the pitching matchup. We're not talking Jacob deGrom, but southpaw Joey Lucchesi as the Mets starter. As a road favorite of minus $1.10 or more, Lucchesi is 1-8. He has a lifetime 7.20 ERA versus the Cubs in two starts spanning 10 innings. The Mets have lost eight of their past 11 away games.
So even though I do not have a high regard for Cubs starter Trevor Williams, I think it's good value to get Chicago as a home 'dog in this spot. The Cubs are 4-0 the last time four times facing a southpaw starter and Williams is coming off a good start - limiting the Braves to one run on four hits in five innings this past Saturday.
Williams also has been strong against the Mets during his career going 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Apr 22 '21, 8:08 PM in 2h
NHL | Avalanche vs Blues
Play on: Avalanche -148 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Avalanche -148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Apr 22 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Angels vs Astros
Play on: Astros -119 at pinnacle

1* on Astros -119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Apr 22 '21, 8:40 PM in 3h
NBA | Pistons vs Spurs
Play on: UNDER 217 -113

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Pistons/Spurs UNDER 217
The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall with combined scores of 213, 196, 203 and 194 points. I think this total has been set too high tonight against the Detroit Pistons, who will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back just like the Spurs.
Tired legs will affect the shooting for both teams. I don't expect either team to be pushing the tempo tonight, which is par for the course for both of these squads anyway. The Spurs rank 20th in pace this season while the Pistons rank 22nd in pace. Detroit ranks 25th in offensive efficiency while San Antonio ranks 19th.
These teams met earlier this season on March 15th with the Spurs winning 109-99 for just 208 combined points. This despite the Spurs shooting 56.6% as a team and the Pistons shooting 47%. It was played at a snail's pace with both teams attempting only 83 shots. Expect more of the same here in the rematch tonight.
The UNDER is 20-5 in Pistons last 25 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Apr 22 '21, 8:40 PM in 3h
NBA | Pistons vs Spurs
Play on: Pistons +8½ -114 at Draft Kings

Dave's Thursday Free Play:
1* on Detroit Pistons +8.5
The Key: The Detroit Pistons continue to battle despite their poor record. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Spurs shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone right now with the way they are playing. San Antonio is just 6-13 SU in its last 19 games overall and one of the most tired teams in hte NBA right now. That's because they haven't had more than one day off in a row since the All-Star Break. It's no wonder they have struggled so much down the stretch. The Spurs are 3-18 ATS in their last 21 home games after winning 2 of their last 3 games. The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a loss by 10 points or more. Detroit is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 games off a loss. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. San Antonio is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 games as a home favorite. Take Detroit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Apr 22 '21, 9:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Hornets vs Bulls
Play on: Hornets +2½ -110 at Mirage

Free Pick on Hornets

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John Martin

Apr 22 '21, 9:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Hornets vs Bulls
Play on: Bulls -2 -110 at linepros

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Chicago Bulls -2
The Charlotte Hornets are really struggling right now without three of their best players in Ball, Hayward and Monk. They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their last three losses all coming by double-digits. The Bulls had won two in a row before a bad loss to the Cavaliers last night. Now we get them cheap tonight at home as only 2-point favorites over the depleted Hornets. Charlotte is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog. Chicago is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record. Give me the Bulls.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Apr 22 '21, 9:40 PM in 4h
NBA | Lakers vs Mavs
Play on: Mavs -2 -110 at linepros

My free play is on the Dal Mavs at 9:40 ET.
The 35-23 Lakers expect to have Anthony Davis back on Thursday night when they visit Dallas to take on the 31-26 Mavericks. However, LBJ is still a couple of weeks away from returning, according to a recent report by ESPN. The Lakers have gone 14-16 without A.D. (22.5 & 8.2)and are 7-9 without him and LBJ (25.4-7.9-7.9). LA has fallen to the No. 5 seed in the West, 8 1/2-games back of the Jazz (No. 1 seed). Denver owns the No. 4 seed (final seed to get the home court edge in the first round) and LA would sure like to catch them but the Nuggets do own a three-game edge. The Mavs own the No. 7 and would like to avoid the "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10) and have closed to within a half-game of the No. 6 Blazers, who have lost SEVEN of nine.
PG Schroder (15.4-3.5-5.5) and PG Harrell (13.9 & 6.6) have been excellent additions this season, while SF Kuzma (12.9 & 6.50 remains an underrated talent. LA acquired center Drummond from Cleveland at the end of March and in his six April games, he has averaged 12.8 & 10.2 in 26 minutes. How he'll mesh with A.D. and LBJ when they are both back, is to be determined.
Dallas has NOT had the kind of season expected of them, as their 127-117 win over the Detroit Pistons last night snapped a four-game home losing streak! Doncic (28.6-8.0-8.7) has led Dallas all season and last night just missed a triple-double (30-10-9). Kristaps Porzingis (20.4 & 9.3) has been an excellent 'side-kick' to Doncic all season and had 19 points and seven rebounds in Wednesday's win. Three other players are averaging double digits for Dallas in SF Hardaway (15.8), plus guards Brunson (12.9-3.6-3.5) and Richardson (12.2).
Will A.D. definitely play? We don't know that for sure and if he does, how effective will he be? I believe this is an excellent spot for Dallas but the Mavs have underachieved all season at home, going just 14-14 SU, as well as a money-burning 10-18 ATS. I'm make a small play on Dallas.
Good luck...Larry