Saturday 4/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Race of the Week: San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate

April 21, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$250,000 GRADE 3 SAN FRANCISCO MILE AT GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

Saturday, April 24, 2021

The Lead:
It's Gold Rush Weekend at Golden Gate Fields, the season's biggest run of stakes action in Northern California. Eight stakes will be run between Saturday and Sunday, the main event of which will be Saturday's Grade 3 San Francisco Mile, which goes as Race 9. The San Francisco Mile has been run at the former Bay Meadows and Golden Gate Fields since 1948 and boasts legendary winners like Citation, Native Diver and Breeders' Cup Mile champion Singeltary.

Players using the 1/ST BET app or Xpressbet can take advantage of a $10 Money-Back Guarantee on all win bets throughout the entire, 12-race card Saturday at Golden Gate Fields. If your win bet finishes second or third, you'll get a wagering credit refunded back into your account up to $10 bet.

Field Depth:
KEEPER OFTHE STARS is a Grade 1-winning mare, while OHIO also is a Grade 1 winner. WHISPER NOT and RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE are Grade 2-placed. KIWI'S DREAM and BORDER TOWN are Grade 3-placed. BROWN STORM has kept Grade 1/Grade 2 company lines in Southern California.

Pace:
A wicked pace is projected with rail-drawn KIWI'S DREAM, DIAMOND BLITZ and BROWN STORM all being 1-way styles that need-the-lead. WHISPER NOT won his last race opening up a 10-length lead early and may not come off the bridle either. Those who can finish late will have every chance to capture this San Francisco Mile edition.

Our Eyes:
Last year's San Fran Mile had a tepid pace, :48 to the opening half-mile. KIWI'S DREAM won't get those kind of breathers this time. He led all but the final jumps when edged by Neptune's Star, trained by Richard Baltas. That barn looks to repeat, but with new face WHISPER NOT, who should be part of a fiery pace. RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE was the beaten favorite last year in this race, but seriously compromised by the pace. His runner-up on dirt last time out to sprinter Ax Man in the Santana Mile at Santa Anita could be a very good sharpener. But RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE hasn't had quite the same closing kick on turf as he shows on dirt.

KEEPEROFTHESTARS loves Golden Gate, unbeaten on the local lawn at 3-for-3, and she gets a 5-pound weight break while challenging the colts/geldings. This 5-year-old mare didn't bring as much to her allowance return April 3 as expected, winning a slow-paced race that didn't quicken late like you'd expect. She loses jockey Evin Roman to BORDER TOWN, a Richard Mandella trainee who really intrigues this eye. BORDER TOWN looks like the San Francisco Mile's best late finisher, posting 100+ BRIS late pace figures in 3 of his last 8 starts, capable of hitting that acceleration in races with either fast and slow early paces. That's a sharp sign. His third to Hit the Road in the Thunder Road in February stacks up very strongly against this competition after his former rival returned to win the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile next.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
BORDER TOWN is 6-for-7 in the trifecta in California turf miles since coming west to start 2020. He gets a dynamite pace set-up for his finishing kick.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
There shouldn't be any huge numbers in the trifecta in this race, but 10-year-old OHIO is a pure turf miler who may get overlooked a tad and will be running on at the end. Trainer Michael McCarthy's barn is going well right now all over.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win BORDER TOWN. $10 exacta box BORDER TOWN and OHIO ($20).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, April 24: Hong Kong Champions Day Picks
April 22, 2021
From Hong Kong Jockey Club Racing Correspondent, Declan Schuster

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Saturday, April 24, 2021)

Race 1: #1 Hall Of Champ, #3 City Legend, #6 Ernest Feeling, #10 Mission Smart
Race 2: #2 Exceed The Stars, #5 Packing Award, #4 Victory Scholars, #13 Party Genius
Race 3: #1 Fantastic Way, #10 Trader, #9 War Of Courage, #2 Sunset Watch
Race 4: #8 Entrusted, #2 Beauty Fit, #10 Maldives, #3 All For St Paul’s
Race 5: #10 Stronger, #1 Danon Smash, #6 Wellington, #12 Beauty Applause
Race 6: #13 Gallant Express, #4 Winning For All, #2 E Star, #11 Daily Beauty
Race 7: #1 Golden Sixty, #6 Healthy Happy, #2 Southern Legend, #4 Mighty Giant
Race 8: #7 Loves Only You, #5 Time Warp, #6 Daring Tact, #1 Glory Vase
Race 9: #4 Circuit Three, #10 Maximus, #13 Super Football, #2 Tourbillon Diamond
Race 10: #2 Winning Dreamer, #7 Courier Wonder, #5 Lucky Patch, #13 Hong Kong Bet

Race 1: FWD Insurance JW Region Handicap

#1 Hall Of Champ steps back to Class 4 which suits. He has to shoulder top-weight which makes life slightly difficult but still, he’ll relish racing weaker in the grade. #3 City Legend is looking to string three wins together. Put simply, he’s on fire and the inside gate affords him every opportunity. #6 Ernest Feeling is on the up. He only needs to offset the wide gate. #10 Mission Smart draws the inside. He gets the blinkers first time to sharpen up and with even luck he can press for the win.

Race 2: FWD Insurance Forever Young Handicap

#2 Exceed The Stars received a welcome step back to Class 4 last start. He looks set to improve off that run and from gate one he should get every chance. #5 Packing Award made an excellent debut having finished a close-up second. Zac Purton hops up now and he shapes as a leading player. #4 Victory Scholars rattled into second last start. He draws well and should go close again. #13 Party Genius has the runs on the board without winning. He’s next best.

Race 3: FWD Insurance ICBC (Asia) Handicap

#1 Fantastic Way is looking to snare a fourth unbeaten win. He’s easily a standout youngster from the John Size yard who looks well placed to continue his ascent through the grades. #10 Trader won nicely on debut. He showed glimpses of inexperience but from the good gate, with no weight, he is the main danger. #9 War Of Courage rarely runs a bad race. He’s in contention. #2 Sunset Watch is looking for back-to-back wins. He has race experience on his side.

Race 4: FWD Insurance BOCOM Handicap

#8 Entrusted makes his first start for trainer Chris So. He’s a talented son of Nathaniel who while he mixes his form, is a classy operator on his day and the booking of Joao Moreira only enhances his claims. #2 Beauty Fit hasn’t exactly set the world alight since his arrival in Hong Kong. Still, he arrived with a big reputation from Australia and if he manages to capture any of that form he showed prior to export, then is in with a chance. #10 Maldives is looking for back-to-back wins. He commands respect. #3 All For St Paul’s switches back to the turf. He can find the front and play catch me if you can from the good draw.

Race 5: G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize

#10 Stronger has found some serious form his past two runs and with a clean run he looks capable of testing this bunch. He finished fast from an unlikely position back in the field last time out, and with a similar run this Sunday it wouldn’t shock to see him go on with it. #1 Danon Smash arrives in search of his third consecutive G1. He’s in tip-top form and from the good gate with Joao Moreira up, he’s going to go around a profound favourite to win the race. #6 Wellington is worth forgiving for his last-start fifth in the G2 Sprint Cup. He can clock serious time when he wants to and if he manages to find his best then he’s going to get every opportunity, especially from gate three. #12 Beauty Applause draws well for champion jockey Zac Purton. He should get a few favours settling close to the speed.

Race 6: FWD Insurance CCB (Asia) Handicap

#13 Gallant Express scored with plenty in hand on debut. He rises in grade but does look well weighted to continue his progression following on from that win. #4 Winning For All is a winner in this grade. He draws well which should afford him every chance at seeing out the seven furlongs as he is a winner over six. #2 E Star rarely runs a bad race and is paired with the in-form Derek Leung. #11 Daily Beauty gets in light. He just needs to offset the awkward draw.

Race 7: G1 FWD Champions Mile

#1 Golden Sixty has won 16 from 17 starts. He faces a small field and with the class he has, he can get over the top of this bunch and snare a fourth consecutive G1. #6 Healthy Happy can roll forward and make a race of this in the small field. He’ll play catch me if you can. #2 Southern Legend is ticking along. He pushed Golden Sixty two starts ago and his class will take him a long way in this contest, especially as the winner of this race last year. #4 Mighty Giant caused a boilover in the G2 Chairman’s Trophy last time out. He’s next best.

Race 8: G1 FWD QEII Cup

#7 Loves Only You finished a classy third to Mishriff at Dubai in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic. She’s well-traveled, and reports are that she has settled into Hong Kong very well. She appeals in this field and with a clean run she could well prove difficult to run down. #5 Time Warp can roll forward and make a race of this. Small fields can throw up results and with a soft lead, he could prove difficult to reel in. He’s no stranger to reversing his form and he’s worth taking on an each way basis to do so. #6 Daring Tact is a super filly. Still, it is difficult for a young horse to travel at her age and she might be worth opposing, although in saying that her third to Almond Eye in last year’s Japan Cup is hard to ignore. #1 Glory Vase does his best racing at Sha Tin as a G1 winner at the track. He can figure.

Race 9: FWD Insurance ACT Champions Handicap

#4 Circuit Three is a consistent customer as a course and distance winner two starts ago in this grade. He doesn’t get too much weight for a horse with his ability even though the opposition is rather tough. This contest is open and he has the runs on the board. #10 Maximus draws well and gets a welcome step back in distance to the mile. He can roll forward and make a race of this, and as such, is worth taking on a win and place line. #13 Super Football slots in light as a two-time course and distance winner this term. He draws a touch wide but he has class for a lightly raced galloper who still has plenty of rating points in hand. #2 Tourbillon Diamond steps back down to the mile where he is a winner over this distance. He bears close watching with Zac Purton engaged.

Race 10: FWD Insurance My Legend Handicap

#2 Winning Dreamer steps back down to a suitable grade after racing at G2 company last start. He has the class as a two-time winner in this grade, and from gate five he should get every permissible chance to end the unbeaten streak of #7 Courier Wonder, who does, look a serious horse in the making with three wins under his belt. He was impressive last start but this is another big step up and he might be worth opposing. #5 Lucky Patch draws awkwardly but has plenty of merit over this distance. #13 Hong Kong Bet could roll forward from gate one and give this field something to run down. He’s next best.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Early Kentucky Derby Pros and Cons

April 22, 2021 | By Johnny D

Like many horseplayers, yours truly currently is sorting through possible starters in the Kentucky Derby with an eye toward making a small fortune wagering on the outcome of the 147th edition. Of course, ‘small fortune’ is a relative term that depends, mostly, on what one considers a ‘fortune.’ In my world that’s not a particularly large amount, so a Kentucky Derby superfecta payoff on the ‘strong-side’ would fill the bill.

Heck, a Derby Day profit would be nice, for a change. We’ve had some lucrative Run for the Roses outcomes, but not lately. We almost made an OK score with Maximum Security a few years ago but, well, you must have heard how that turned out. For the most part, though, we’ve spent the last few ‘first Sundays in May’ on the couch wound licking.

Based on what’s transpired the last few Derby Days, financially speaking, we’d settle for exiting the afternoon as whole as we entered it. Like the compromised rat famously declared, “Forget the cheese, I just want out of the trap!”

All that’s merely about winning or losing money. And, as we’ve all been told, ‘money isn’t everything.’ Reportedly, it can’t ‘buy happiness, love, or health.’ However, we’ve noticed that in a capitalistic society legal tender has its advantages. For example: the wife and I could use a Kentucky Derby payday to finance a trip to visit my daughter, her husband and their absolutely wonderful, amazing, beautiful, smart and funny 2-year-old daughter (written like a true grandparent). They live in Hong Kong and, as you may have heard on the news, this pandemic thing has altered travel plans.

So, we’re burning the midnight oil in an attempt to get this Derby finish correct, collect a bundle and, as soon as it’s feasible, board a jet bound for Asia so we can hug a little girl.

It’s happened before, except for the part about little girl—she wasn’t born. My daughter lived there, and we wanted to visit her. One evening, back when Santa Anita still had the $2 Pick Six, we were alive to two horses in the final race for decent payoffs. The wife even put a ‘hold’ on cooking dinner and descended kitchen to basement to root. One of our ‘live’ horses led down the backside and then faded. The other roared into contention on the far turn, took command and began to draw away in the stretch. As he did, my wife began to excitedly chant, “We’re going to Hong Kong. We’re going to Hong Kong.”

I responded, “Would you please let him finish the race before you spend the money.”

Many handicap the Kentucky Derby like it’s the most important race in the world because…well…it pretty much is. We love the journey. There’s nothing quite like Derby prep time spent digging through past performances, marking up pages/screens in assorted colors, watching replays of races and workouts, consulting Thoro-Graph Sheets and Daily Racing Form Beyer Speed Figures, listening to clockers, trainers, friends and other professional handicappers as they offer opinions, explanations and predictions.

At some point in the process we will really know these horses. And, simultaneously, we will feel completely confused. Handicapping the Derby will do that to you. But you’ve got to make decisions. Stop the buck. Break some eggs. Toss some horses. You can’t use them all.

That moment comes just before the race. When you’ve swallowed more data and information than your Derby belly can handle. Time is nearly expired. They’re playing that song that makes grown men who were born nowhere near Kentucky cry. It’s time to hit ‘Submit.

When the gates open this year for Derby 147, the roar of the crowd won’t be as thunderous as normal, but it will be louder than it was for Derby 146. They call that progress. Depending on the order in which horses cross the Louisville finish line, a man and his wife might soon travel to Hong Kong where Derby money will indeed purchase happiness.

Below is a one-week-out look at the ‘pro’ and ‘con’ sides of Derby starters. Next week, in this space we will add a ‘Bottom Line’ conclusion to each horse and a suggest wagering strategy.
Also, make sure to access a FREE copy of Xpressbet’s Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide available online Friday. It’s jam-packed with selections, workout information and stats and trends you won’t find anywhere else.

Runners below are presented in order of Kentucky Derby points earned and based on anticipated entries as of 4/22/21.

Essential Quality
Pro: Unbeaten in 5 starts, he’s the 2-year-old Champ. His versatile running style is handy in large field. He has a win over the Churchill Downs strip. Trainer Brad Cox won 2020 Eclipse Award. Jockey Luis Saez seeks redemption for disqualification of Derby mount Maximum Security. Has fastest Thoro-Graph figure of any horse. Beyer Speed Figures have improved with each start. 49 Champion 2-year-olds have raced in the Derby with 12 wins, 11 seconds and three thirds.

Con: Hasn’t posted a triple digit Beyer Speed figure. Took a small backward step in Blue Grass, according to Thoro-Graph figures. Blue Grass winning margin was his smallest. Last Blue Grass winner to win Derby was Strike the Gold 1991. Since 1984, just 2 BC Juvenile winners have won the Derby (Street Sense 2006 and Nyquist 2016). He has a way of winging his left front leg outward when he runs. Poor mechanics ultimately might affect performance.

Hot Rod Charlie
Pro: Won the Louisiana Derby. Has second highest Beyer Speed Figure at 99—last 3 races all in the 90s. Has not been off the board in last five races--all with blinkers (third by a neck worst finish). Was just three-quarters of a length behind eventual 2-year-old champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile at 94-1. Will be ridden by SoCal top jock Flavien Prat. Has mid-pack style.

Con: Since 1956, only two KY Derby winners had layoffs of six weeks or more—Animal Kingdom 2011 and Authentic 2020. Jockey Joel Rosario, who will ride Rock Your World, initially chose Baffert-trained Concert Tour over this colt. Was mere neck behind fellow Derby competitor Medina Spirit in next-to-last 3-year-old race. At two, was defeated by fellow Derby starter Get Her Number sprinting on turf.

Super Stock
Pro: Exploded to win the Arkansas Derby, a traditionally strong Derby prep race, at 12-1. Finished third, less than five lengths behind Derby favorite Essential Quality in Breeders Futurity.

Con: Has just one Beyer Figure over 90 at 92. Has just one race that’s even remotely fast enough to compete in here, according to Thoro-Graph figures. Finished second to Lexington Stakes upset winner and probable Kentucky Derby also-eligible King Fury in the Street Sense at Churchill. Only other win came in a five and one-half furlong restricted race at Lone Star.

Like the King
Pro: Overcame trouble to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway last out. Has three wins from six starts. Beyer and Thoro-Graph figs have improved recently.

Con: Both dirt tries are not good. Best races on synthetic surfaces and turf. While improved, overall figures are slow.

Known Agenda
Pro: He upset Florida Derby favorite Greatest Honour and powered to a nearly three-length triumph at 9/2 odds for top certain Hall of Fame trainer and two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher. Florida Derby is a solid proving ground for KY Derby winners. Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is 2-for-2 aboard him. Woke up with blinkers added in an 11-length Gulfstream allowance victory—race before the Florida Derby. Last 15 years, six KY Derby winners have won the Florida Derby (including Maximum Security, who was disqualified).

Con: Florida Derby was colt’s first race with a Beyer Speed Figure over 90 at 94. Didn’t fire as favorite in the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis. Has been training so-so at Churchill. Bore out a bit in the stretch of the Florida Derby. Expect him to race in the second flight and that’s not where most recent Derby winners have come from.

Rock Your World
Pro: Went wire-to-wire to win the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby--one of the top producing KY Derby prep races. All seven of the most recent KY Derby winners set or tracked the pace from no farther back than third (that includes Maximum Security who was disqualified). The Gr. 1 SA Derby was this colt’s first start on dirt after two wins on turf. In the GR. 1 SA Derby he earned the highest Beyer Speed Figure of anyone in the KY Derby field—100. Six of last 10 KY Derby winners wintered in CA.

Con: Since 1882, only one horse has won the KY Derby without starting at age two. This colt began his career Jan. 1. If he draws poorly and doesn’t make the lead, it will be a new experience for him taking kickback. He finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the SA Derby in more than :38 seconds. 18 of the last 23 KY Derby winners were at :38 or less in final preps.

Bourbonic
Pro: As a representative of the red-hot Todd Pletcher stable, he upended the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial at 72-1 over stablemate and fellow Kentucky Derby starter Dynamic One. It was easily the best race of his career and was his third win.

Con: His Wood victory came in the slowest renewal ever and the only Wood winner to also win the Derby in 40 years is Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Bourbonic hasn’t cracked the 90 Beyer Speed Figure mark in six starts. He has no early speed and that’s not the best most recent Derby-winning style. His Churchill Downs works, so far, haven’t been notable. He once raced for a $50k maiden claiming tag.

Medina Spirit
Pro: He hails from the Bob Baffert stable as the trainer seeks his record-setting seventh KY Derby triumph. He’s been a steady performer this season and never worse than second in five career starts on the tough SoCal circuit. Two defeats, one to the outstanding Life is Good and one to Rock Your World in the SA Derby, are the only blemishes on his resume. His running style should have him close to the early pace under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

Con: He was soundly defeated as favorite by KY Derby foe Rock Your World last out in the SA Derby. Medina Spirit has made 4 starts already this year and that’s not ideal, according to J. Keeler Johnson at AmericasBestRacing.net, “Between 2005 and 2018, every Kentucky Derby winner competed in just two or three races between January and April of their 3-year-old season.” Country House, 2019 Derby winner via DQ had 4 starts in the timeframe, as did Authentic who won the COVID delayed 2020 Derby. While Medina Spirit’s speed figures haven’t gone backward, they haven’t improved, either. At this time of year, sophomore runners should be getting faster.

Midnight Bourbon
Pro: Is very consistent—7 for 7 in the money, with two wins. His Beyer Speed Figures are steady and competitive. Won Gr. 3 Lecomte, was close third in Gr. 2 Risen Star to Mandaloun and close second to Hot Rod Charlie in Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby. Has enough speed to be in contention from the start. He worked well at Churchill Downs the week before the Derby.

Con: Doesn’t have enough speed to make the lead and hasn’t shown that he can close with authority—he’s lost ground on the winner in the stretch of his last two races. He’s been away from the races since March 20 and that’s a bit longer than is ideal. After his bit-rank, quick workout at Churchill the week before the Derby, he got loose briefly on the backside.

Mandaloun
Pro: He’s always been highly regarded and won the Gr. 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds. He’s got a stalking style that could work well in this somewhat pace-less Derby. He won a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs, so you know he likes the track. Trainer Brad Cox also has Derby favorite Essential Quality and probable pacesetter Caddo River in the race.

Con: Ran a no-excuse, absolute stinker as favorite in the Louisiana Derby and horses entering the Derby off poor preps do not usually run well in Louisville. Has been away from the races since March 20 and that’s longer than is ideal. His pedigree is a bit ‘speed over stamina.’ If you like him, you almost have to like Midnight Bourbon and vice-versa.

Caddo River
Pro: He’s got speed and will use it to set the pace in the Derby. Perhaps, only Rock Your World has enough speed to contend for the early lead. He won the Smarty Jones going one mile at Oaklawn Park and was second in the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby behind upset winner Super Stock. Trainer Brad Cox has favorite Essential Quality, Mandaloun and Caddo River in the race.

Con: Trainer Brad Cox was on the fence about running in the Derby just about until speedy Concert Tour was declared out of the race. When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s no room for hemming and hawing. Either you’re ready to face the best of your class or you’re not. Don’t like the ‘wait and see’ approach. He has just one Beyer Figure that’s even in the ballpark to win this race. Expect him to go fast early, challenge any other speed horses and conveniently set the race up for stalking favorite and Cox entrant Essential Quality.

Highly Motivated
Pro: Nearly went wire-to-wire to defeat Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass but came up a neck short. It was this colt’s first try around two turns and only his second race since early November, so he could improve in the Derby. His Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures are very competitive, and he’s had just five career starts, so there could be more in the tank for patient trainer Chad Brown.

Con: Late in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass he drifted out a few paths and jumped back over to his left lead. That shifting around may have cost him the race…or not. Either way, Essential Quality was pulling clear in the final strides. How is the Derby going to be any different going one mile and one-quarter without Highly Motivated on an easy early lead?

Helium
Pro: He’s unbeaten in three starts and won the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby last out. He’s won on both synthetic and dirt. Trainer Mark Casse has recruited one of his favorite jockeys Julien Leparoux to ride this colt for the first time in the Derby. Casse also has Soup and Sandwich in the race.

Con: He’s been away from the races for eight weeks and that’s too long. He’s also raced just once at three and the only Derby runner to do well off that pattern is Challendon who finished second in 1937.

Soup and Sandwich
Pro: Great name for colt owned by Charlotte Webber, granddaughter of founder of Campbell’s Soup company. Colt has a big stride and has two wins out of three races—a state-bred maiden at Gulfstream and a first-level allowance race at Tampa. He finished second to Known Agenda in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby last out. Trainer Mark Casse has recruited favorite rider Tyler Gaffalione to pilot.

Con: His Florida Derby effort was OK but, once favorite Greatest Honour failed to show up, the race was fairly empty. He was green in his lowly-rated Tampa win and didn’t change leads in the Florida Derby. He races close to the pace and he will find the early Derby scrum a bit more challenging than anything he’s ever experienced.

Dynamic One
Pro: He’s one of four in this race trained by certain Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winning conditioner. He just missed winning the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial when he was gunned down in the final strides by stablemate Bourbonic. He’s started three times this year, including twice at one mile and one-eighth. His last race Thoro-Graph figure fits fairly well in here.

Con: The 2021 Gr. 2 Wood was the slowest renewal ever. It took this colt four starts to break maiden. He hasn’t run a Beyer Speed Figure over 90 and no horse has successfully gone from the Wood to the Derby since Funny Cide in 2003.

Sainthood
Pro: He’s run just three times and never been worse than second, including a runner-up effort last out at Turfway Park in the Gr. 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks behind Derby foe Like the King. He ran into plenty of trouble in that race and it probably cost him the victory.

Con: He’s just not fast enough on speed figures. Plus, he didn’t race at two and he’s no Justify.

Hidden Stash
Pro: He’s likely to be running on at the end of the Derby. In a race with a few speed horses and plenty of ‘pressers,’ this guy will come running late. He just missed winning the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa, so he fits in graded stakes.

Con: In seven starts he hasn’t posted a Beyer or Thoro-Graph figure that makes him competitive in here.

Dream Shake
Pro: He ran very fast to break maiden first out in a loaded Santa Anita heat while posting a very fast Beyer and Thoro-Graph sprint figure. Since then he has finished a well-beaten third in both the Gr. 2 San Felipe and Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby with much slower figures.

Con: He didn’t start as a two-year-old, a big Derby no-no, and both jockeys Rosario and Prat have ridden him before and are riding others in here. Connections waiting until the last minute to commit to the race, not a good sign.

O Besos
Pro: His Beyer Speed Figures and Thoro-Graph numbers have improved with each race, always a great sign, and his last-out figures fit in here. He finished third, just two lengths behind Hot Rod Charlie and a head behind Midnight Bourbon in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby. He comes from off the pace and ought to appreciate the added distance of the Derby. He hasn’t missed a beat since his first start November 22. He has raced at least once every month since and has obviously thrived. His father Orb won the Kentucky Derby.

Con: He hasn’t raced since March 20, a bit longer layoff than is ideal. Sire Orb has been sold to Brazil. Damsire Soto has been shipped to Saudi Arabia. He did not run well at Churchill first time out in a ‘sloppy’ sprint.

Get Her Number
Pro: Was a Grade 1 winner at 2 when he took the American Pharoah at Santa Anita going a mile and one-sixteenth, he was off from September to March and returned with a fair effort in the Gr. 2 Rebel. Fourth in the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby behind Super Stock, it was an improved effort--only 3 lengths behind the winner and less than a length behind Caddo River. His Beyer figs are not really competitive, but his Thoro-Graph numbers have improved with each race and his last is close enough to be dangerous. Would love to see jockey Umberto Rispoli end up on this one.

Con: His two races this year haven’t been strong, and his Beyer figs would need to leap forward in the Kentucky Derby—a challenging place to expect great improvement. He had speed as a 2-year-old but hasn’t shown any of that quickness this year.

Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Likely Favorite Essential Quality: No Derby Strikes

April 21, 2021 | By Jon White

Essential Quality will take an unblemished record into the 147th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1. He’s five for five going into the 1 1/4-mile classic and, in all likelihood, will be the favorite when the field breaks from the 20-stall starting gate.

Additionally, Essential Quality goes into the Run for the Roses with no strikes in my Derby Strikes System (DSS).

My latest Kentucky Derby Top 10, including each horse’s number of strikes in parentheses, is below:

Rank Horse (Number of Strikes)

1. Essential Quality (0 strikes)
2. Rock Your World (2 strikes)
3. Known Agenda (0 strikes)
4. Hot Rod Charlie (1 strike)
5. Medina Spirit (0 strikes)
6. Highly Motivated (2 strikes)
7. Midnight Bourbon (1 strike)
8. Mandaloun (1 strike)
9. Super Stock (1 strike)
10. Helium (1 strike)

I have Rock Your World ranked No. 2 even though he has two strikes. I would, of course, much prefer that he have zero strikes or one strike. That’s because the vast majority (81%) of the Kentucky Derby winners have zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973 and excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September.

One of the reasons I have Rock Your World ranked so high at No. 2 are some resemblances to 2018 Kentucky Derby winner Justify. Like Rock Your World, Justify had two strikes. But that did not keep me from ranking Justify No. 1 going into the Kentucky Derby.

Justify, unraced as a 2-year-old, won the Santa Anita Derby by daylight (three lengths) and was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby.

Rock Your World also was unraced as a 2-year-old. He likewise won the Santa Anita Derby by daylight (4 1/4 lengths) and is three for three and going into the Kentucky Derby.

Highly Motivated is the only other horse on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 who has more than one strike. I see Highly Motivated as someone with the credentials to win the Kentucky Derby despite having two strikes.

I believe Highly Motivated’s splendid effort to lose Keeneland’s Grade II Blue Grass Stakes by just a neck to Essential Quality on April 3 gives Highly Motivated a license to be a major player in the Kentucky Derby. Highly Motivated’s sparkling 4 1/4-length victory in Keeneland’s Nyquist Stakes last Nov. 6 also suggests that he merits respect on May 1.

Concert Tour exits my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after trainer Bob Baffert announced that the colt would not be running in the Kentucky Derby and instead will be pointed to the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 15.

Unlike me, those who dropped Concert Tour in their Kentucky Derby rankings last week were proven correct to do so. It turns out I was wrong to keep him so high on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 at No. 3 after he had finished third as the 3-10 favorite in the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10.

EXPLAINING THE DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM

I came up with the DSS to try and determine a horse’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May from both tactical and historical perspectives. The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the categories, the horse gets a strike. The eight categories are listed at the end of this column/blog/article.

A number of the categories in the DSS are associated with the Kentucky Derby being run in May. Consequently, when the race was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to the pandemic, it rendered the DSS unworkable.

The DSS is back in 2021 now that the Kentucky Derby has returned to its traditional spot on the calendar.

Since 1973 and again excluding 2020 when the race was run in September, 39 out of the 48 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike, while seven have had two strikes and only one has had more than two strikes.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were:

Cannonade (1974) Categories 3 and 4
Ferdinand (1986) Categories 2 and 4
Sea Hero (1993) Categories 3 and 5
Funny Cide (2003) Categories 2 and 8
Giacomo (2015) Categories 2 and 5
Justify (2018) Categories 1 and 8
Country House (2019) Categories 2 and 3

The only Kentucky Derby winner with more than two strikes was:

Mine That Bird (2009) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

According to the DSS, among the “likely starters” listed by Churchill Downs as of April 21, there is a very good chance that the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner is one of the following nine horses (in alphabetical order) who have zero strikes or one strike:

Horse (Strikes) Category or Categories

Essential Quality (0)
Helium (1) Category 5
Hot Rod Charlie (1) Category 4
Known Agenda (0)
Like the King (0)
Mandaloun (1) Category 4
Medina Spirit (0)
Midnight Bourbon (1) Category 4
Super Stock (1) Category 3

In alphabetical order, these are horses with two strikes listed as “likely starters” as of April 21:

Bourbonic (2) Categories 1 and 3
Caddo River (2) Categories 2 and 4
Hidden Stash (2) Categories 2 and 5
Highly Motivated (2) Categories 2 and 4
O Besos (2) Categories 2 and 3
Rock Your World (2) Categories 1 and 7
Sainthood (2) Categories 2 and 7
Soup and Sandwich (2) Categories 2 and 7

The two horses with three strikes listed as a “likely starter” as of April 21 are:

Dynamic One (3) Categories 1, 2 and 4
Get Her Number (3) Categories 3, 4 and 5

Listed as a “possible starter” by Churchill is:

Dream Shake (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7

Listed as “next up in order of preference” by Churchill are:

Hozier (3 strikes) Categories 2, 3 and 5
King Fury (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 6
Keepmeinmind (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
Starrininmydreams (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 5

NUMBER OF STRIKES FOR DERBY WINNERS SINCE 1973

These are the number of strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 (again, the eight categories in the Derby Strikes System are listed at the end of this column/blog/article):

2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3*
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first, disqualified and placed 17th

RECALLING A KENTUCKY DERBY SHOCKER

Fifty years ago on the first Saturday in May, I was sitting in my father’s car in the parking lot at Yakima Meadows, a track in Central Washington.

I had become a huge horse racing fan by then. As such, I was extremely interested in the 1971 Kentucky Derby.

My very first Kentucky Derby pick was Dancer’s Image in 1968. He finished first and paid $9.20 for each $2 win ticket.

However, when the post-race urinalysis of Dancer’s Image showed the presence of Butazolidin, which at the time was a prohibited medication in Kentucky, second-place finisher Forward Pass was declared the winner of the 1968 Kentucky Derby except for pari-mutuel payoffs. First purse money and the winning trophy were awarded to Forward Pass by order of the Kentucky State Racing Commission.

Peter Fuller, the owner of Dancer’s Image, initiated a legal battle that lasted for years in a futile attempt to overturn Dancer’s Image’s disqualification.

My Kentucky Derby pick in 1969 was the undefeated Majestic Prince, who prevailed by a neck and paid $4.80 as the favorite.

After picking back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners, I missed in 1970. My selection was Personality, who finished eighth. Dust Commander won and paid $32.60. Personality went on to win the Preakness, with Dust Commander finishing ninth. Personality, coupled in the wagering with High Echelon, paid $11 to win.

I picked Unconscious in the 1971 Kentucky Derby. Sent away as the 5-2 favorite in the field of 20, he finished fifth.

In 1971, Yakima Meadows did not even show the Kentucky Derby on any of its television monitors. Because I would not be able to watch the race on TV, I decided to do the next-best thing by listening to it on my transistor radio.

When I heard during the radio call that Canonero II had taken the lead, I remember thinking, “Who? Who is that?”

I walked back into the track.

“Who won it?” my dad asked.

“Some horse named Canonero II,” I said.

“Who’s that?” my dad asked.

Without question, the story of Canonero II is one of the most colorful in the history of American racing.

A Kentucky-bred son of the English-bred sire Pretendre (runner-up in the 1966 Epsom Derby), Canonero II fetched a first and only bid of $1,200 at the 1967 Keeneland September yearling sale. Bloodstock agent Luis Navas purchased the yearling, then sold him to Venezuelan businessman Pedro Baptista.

“Baptista’s plumbing and pipe manufacturing company was in dire financial straits and was on the verge of bankruptcy,” BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin wrote in 2011. “In order to continue purchasing horses, he registered them under the name of his son-in-law, Edgar Caibett.”

Canonero II was turned over to trainer Juan Arias. The bay colt won a race at about six furlongs by 6 1/2 lengths on Aug. 8, 1970.

Because Baptista was in desperate need for money, Canonero II then was sent to Del Mar. The hope was to sell the colt.

Canonero II finished third at odds of 21-1 in a six-furlong allowance race at Del Mar on Sept. 5. He then ran fifth at 10-1 in the six-furlong Del Mar Futurity, which was won by the fine filly June Darling.

No less than the great trainer Charlie Whittingham expressed interest in purchasing Canonero II.

“When Whittingham found out the colt could be bought for $70,000, he attempted to buy him for one of his main clients, Mary Jones,” Haskin wrote. “Unfortunately, no one with the horse could speak English, the first of many blunders by Baptista. Unable to get a firm price, Whittingham gave up, and Canonero II returned to Venezuela.”

From Dec. 17 to April 10, Canonero II made nine starts in Venezuela, winning six of them. One of those six victories came in a race at about 1 1/4 miles on March 7. He won by 2 1/2 lengths while defeating 13 foes.

After Canonero II ran third in a race at about 1 1/8 miles on April 10, the decision was made to send him back to the United States for the Kentucky Derby.

One week after his April 10 race, “Canonero II boarded a plane for Miami…Shortly after taking off, the plane was forced to return due to mechanical failure,” Haskin wrote. “The second attempt wasn’t any more successful, as one of the engines caught on fire and the plane was forced to return once again. The only other plane they could find was a cargo plane filled with chickens and ducks, which became Canonero’s travel companions.

“Finally, a weary Canonero arrived in Miami. But airport officials discovered the horse had no papers or blood work, so he was forced to remain on the plane for 12 hours in the sweltering heat, nearly becoming dehydrated…By the time he was released from quarantine, Canonero was a physical mess.”

It did not help Canonero that he then was vanned the 900 miles from Miami to Louisville, a trip that took 20 hours.

“When Canonero’s name entered the Derby picture, the Caliente Future Book [the only one back then] quoted him at odds of 500-1,” Haskin wrote.

Canonero II had one recorded workout at Churchill Downs prior to the May 1 Kentucky Derby. The track condition was “slow.” So was Canonero II, who was timed in :53 4/5, which elicited laughter from observers.

“But the horse was thriving physically and had put back 50 of the 70 pounds he had lost [when released from quarantine],” Haskin wrote.

In Canonero II’s career past performances in the Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby edition, there was information missing for his final three races in Venezuela. There was the date of the race, the track, the distance, the final time, the track condition and Canonero II’s finish position. But that was all. Instead of listing the horses who finished first, second and third, it said: (Further information unavailable.)

Twenty clashed in the 1971 Kentucky Derby. Canonero II would have been a gigantic price on his own, but he was relegated to the mutuel field consisting of six horses. Horses chosen for the mutuel field are those regarded as having the least chance of winning. Because a win wager on the mutuel field meant having six chances to cash the ticket, the final odds were 8-1. Besides Canonero II, the horses in the mutuel field finished 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th.

After being 18th early, 20 lengths off the pace, Canonero II and jockey Gustavo Avila won the 97th running of the Kentucky Derby by 3 3/4 lengths while completing 1 1/4 miles in 2:03 1/5.

In the Preakness, Canonero II raced near or on the lead from the beginning and won by 1 1/2 lengths at 3-1. His final time of 1:54 flat for 1 3/16 miles broke the track record.

That put him in a position to go for a Triple Crown sweep in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. With a throng of 82,694 looking on, Canonero II finished fourth in the Belmont as the 7-10 favorite. Pass Catcher won. Jim French ran second, while Bold Reason finished third in the field of 13.

Actually, considering Canonero II’s physical condition, it’s remarkable he lost by only 4 1/2 lengths. He was sold after the race to King Ranch’s Robert J. Kleberg Jr. for seven figures.

“R.J. Kleberg Jr. [of Texas’ King Ranch, which bred and raced 1946 Triple Crown winner Assault] paid a reported $1 million for Canonero II, intrigued by his stud potential, after the colt lost the Belmont, owing a baffling hock ailment, a temperature, the loss of the cap off a tooth, a skin condition and could not be trained properly,” Charles Hatton wrote in the American Racing Manual.

(With safety in Thoroughbred racing significantly emphasized much more now than in 1971, it seems doubtful that Canonero would have been permitted to run in the Belmont these days considering the condition he was in, even with a possible Triple Crown sweep on the line.)

Haskin and others have listed the price that King Ranch paid for Canonero II as $1.5 million. Adjusting for inflation, that sum would be in the neighborhood of $10 million today.

After the Belmont, Canonero II did not race again at 3. He made eight starts the following year when trained by Hall of Famer Buddy Hirsch, winning just once. But his performance in that one 1972 victory was stellar. He won Belmont’s 1 1/8-mile Stymie Handicap by five lengths at odds of 5-1 on Sept. 20. The runner-up was the 7-10 favorite, a fellow Kentucky Derby winner, 3-year-old Riva Ridge.

Following Canonero II’s 1972 campaign, he was retired to stud at Gainesway Farm in Kentucky. But his record as a sire left much to be desired.

“Canonero never made it as a stallion and was sent back to Venezuela in February 1981 to stand at Haras Tamanaco,” Haskin wrote. “The only stakes horse he sired there was the Group II-placed El Tejano, who was ridden by none other than Avila.

“Even after all these years,” Haskin added, “Arias admits his eyes still tear up whenever he thinks back on Canonero’s magical journey…‘When we arrived in Kentucky, there was nothing but jokes. But Canonero was a battler and had such a big heart.’ ”

Canonero II died in Venezuela at the age of 13.

“On Nov. 11, 1981, that big heart gave out, as Canonero was found dead in his stall,” Haskin wrote. “By then, the magnificent decade of the seventies was history, with Secretariat, Forego, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Alydar and Spectacular Bid all stamping their place in the record books,” Haskin wrote (and I would add Ruffian to that list). “But few remembered that it was Canonero who paved the way for these media stars.”

Me? I will never forget that spring day a half-century ago when I wondered who in the heck Canonero II was while listening to the call of the Kentucky Derby on my transistor radio in my dad’s car in the Yakima Meadows parking lot.

LETRUSKA WINS EPIC RENEWAL OF APPLE BLOSSOM

I was right to not make Monomoy Girl my top pick in last Saturday’s Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park last Saturday. But I picked the wrong horse to try and beat Monomoy Girl.

My top selection was Swiss Skydiver, who ended up third.

As expected, Letruska showed the way through the early furlongs in the 1 1/16-mile contest. To Letruska’s credit, after she was headed by Monomoy Girl in upper stretch, she dug deep and determinedly battled back to eke out a nose victory.

Letruska, off at odds of 3-1, posted a final time of 1:43.14. Monomoy Girl, the 7-10 favorite, had to settle for second in the field of six. Swiss Skydiver, off at odds of 9-5, ended up third, 6 1/2 lengths behind the top pair.

Winning trainer Fausto Gutierrez, a 52-year-old native of Mexico City, understandably was ecstatic.

In the Apple Blossom, Letruska managed to defeat a two-time Eclipse Award winner in Monomoy Girl (champion 3-year-old filly of 2018 and champion older dirt female of 2020) and another Eclipse Award winner in Swiss Skydiver (champion 3-year-old filly of 2020).

A 5-year-old Kentucky-bred daughter of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Letruska began her racing career by going six for six at Mexico City’s Hipodromo de las Americas. She’s seven for 12 in this country. The Apple Blossom was her first U.S. Grade I win.

Monomoy Girl, it should be noted, just barely lost despite being asked to pack top weight of 124 pounds. She conceded six pounds to Letruska last Saturday.

Still racing at age 6, Monomoy Girl now has a career record of 17-14-3-0. She has finished first in 15 of her 17 starts, having been disqualified to second for causing interference in the Grade I Cotillion at Parx Racing in 2018.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Not surprisingly, in the wake of her Apple Blossom triumph, Letruska moves all the way up to No. 6 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll after being ranked No. 22 last week.

Despite Monomoy Girl’s narrow Apple Blossom defeat, she is ranked No. 3 this week, as was the case last week.

Swiss Skydiver was No. 4 last week, but slips to No. 9 this week after finishing third in the Apple Blossom.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 358 Mystic Guide (29)
2. 330 Charlatan (8)
3. 253 Monomoy Girl (5)
4. 231 Knicks Go
5. 191 Colonel Liam
6. 183 Letruska
7. 99 Gamine
8. 85 Idol
9. 78 Swiss Skydiver
10. 49 C Z Rocket

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 373 Essential Quality (34)
2. 286 Rock Your World (1)
3. 265 Known Agenda (1)
4. 253 Hot Rod Charlie (1)
5. 167 Highly Motivated
6. 138 Super Stock
7. 114 Medina Spirit
8. 109 Concert Tour
9. 75 Life Is Good (1)
10. 52 Midnight Bourbon

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

April 24, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

There are nine races scheduled at Cal Expo this evening with the feature coming in Race 6, the Lloyd Arnold Free for All Pace with a $10,000 purse. The headliner also starts the Pick 4 sequence which has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

5-Allmyx'sliventexas (8/5)-It's possible this 8-year-old won't win but it is difficult to make a case that will happen. My only other choice for an upset with a perfect trip would be #1, but recent form has tailed off. Roland should have the morning line choice on the lead from the jump. There isn't a post 10 handicap to deal with and if close to 100% it should be win #9 in 11 CalX starts.

Race 7

5-Its Pointless (5/2)-Comes off 2 dominant wins but this is a tougher task. Has finished in the money in 16 of 17 CalX starts with 12 wins. Not loving the morning line price but it's best to respect as the Graham barn is batting 24% over the past 30 days.
7-Glen (6-1)-This will be the 2nd start without hopples and caught the pocket ride to win last time. Back in the same class and makes the 2nd start for the Tremblay barn. Could be overlooked at the windows and is a player with an alert start.
9-Johnny Ringo (5-1)-The post will make the price and Johnny can compete with these if he minds his manners. Acted up at the start in last and dropped to the back of the pack. Should be better and so will be the price. There should be an honest pace as a few could be leaving and things could set-up nicely for this 4-year-old.

Race 8

3-Royal Mistress (9/2)-This mare offers some value at the morning line price and should relish the company. Could be forwardly placed and has a good chance to cash the top check with a sharp steer.
4-Dancingonthesand (5/2)-Drops to a soft spot and the fractions shouldn't be as hot as last time. One move time should be in striking range by mid stretch. Being only 1-23 in 20-21 isn't inspiring but this race is a taffy pull.
5-Brooklyn Moonshine (5/2)-Plano trainee is trip dependent. But this is the level for the pilot to work the right trip and might be a better price than the program odds.

Race 9

1-Western Devil (5/2)-Started from the rail last time and came away at the back of the pack. Rallied late and just missed. Looking for a big try and a better start.
3-Bet Together (2-1)-Was used to get the lead and then set some solid fractions before being caught at the wire. Could follow a similar script but Kerwood may try to rate the mile differently and has been sharp over the last 4 starts.
6-Gravelsinmytravel (7/2)-Didn't get the best trip in last, was stuck on the rail and was in tight quarters down the lane. Svendsen takes over and that's a positive driver change that could make a meaningful difference.
7-Trump Train (15-1)-Raced wide on the back side and then came 1st over down the lane, that was a bumpy journey. Plano takes the lines this time and he had success beating easier on 2-28. Should be a nice price and looks worthy of a swing versus this crew.

0.20 Pick 4

5/5,7,9/3,4,5/1,3,6,7
Total Bet=$7.20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 4/24/21

April 24, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

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Santa Anita – Ninth Race – Post time: 5:22 PT
2-Ole Silver (6-1)

Speedy filly has the pedigree to improve a ton routing and finally gets her chance to prove it in this nine furlong grassy starter optional claimer for fillies and mares. The daughter of Acclamation continues to train in highly impressive fashion, goes for a barn that has strong stats with the sprint-to-route angle, and switches to bug girl J. Pyfer, who seems likely to employ the proper gate-to-wire tactics that should bring out the best from this P. D’Amato-trained filly. Lightly-raced with plenty of improvement in her and listed at 6-1 on the morning line, she is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

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Churchill Downs – Ninth Race – Post time: 10:11 ET
1-Roderick (9/2)

Has been away for a couple of months since failing to handle a sloppy track when unplaced as the 4/5 favorite in the Hutcheson Stakes and today tries grass in this year’s edition of the William Walker Stakes. The W. Ward-trained colt raced poorly in his only prior outing on turf, but he has trained well on the sod and will outclass this field if he can transfer his best dirt form to this surface. The son of Into Mischief draws the rail and has enough early speed to use it to his advantage, so at 9/2 on the morning he is worth a gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/24/21

April 24, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report



RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-North County Guy

Forecast: North County Guy can be effective at any distance but showed in his most recent win that the R. Baltas-trained gelding probably is most comfortable at this one mile trip. Drawn perfectly inside and likely will inherit an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip, the R. Baltas-trained veteran just handled an open field with career-top speed figure and should not find this state-bred competition any more difficult. At 6/5 on the morning line, he is a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Crooked Finger Ray

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this modest restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Crooked Finger Ray shows up in a seller for the first time and appears to have finally found his friends. The M. Puype-trained gelding turns back to a sprint, returns to the main track, tackles an infinitely softer field and looked quite good in a recent workout to have him on edge. Given the projected pace flow, the son of Verrazano should be within striking range throughout and then have his chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. At 5/2 on the morning line, he is a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Steele Road

Forecast: Steele Road, runner-up as the favorite in a maiden $25,000 claiming sprint last summer at Golden Gate Fields, was a voided claim and stopped on but returns waiver protected in this soft maiden seller for a similar price and has worked like he is fit and ready for the always-powerful F. Prat/R. Mandella jockey/trainer team. The son of Candy Ride has little to beat and thus is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite. Though highly-likely to win, the 4-year-old gelding will be too short to play other than as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Table for Ten

Forecast: Table for Ten shook off some rust when given a run in his recent sprint comeback, doing quite well to finish as close as he did (third) after a poor start that cost him whatever chance he may have had. More effective routing than sprinting, the son of Acclamation should be fitter and sharper today while stretching out to nine furlongs on grass and retaining regular pilot F. Prat. We are expecting to see him draft into a mid-pack early position and then have dead aim and every chance when asked to quicken at the head of t he lane. At 2-1 on the morning line, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding is strong play in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Our Little Tiger; 5-Smoothlikebuttah; 6-Race Judicata

Forecast: We will go three-deep in this starter optional claiming main track miler for 3-year-old fillies while preferring Smoothlikebuttah slightly on top. A winner over this track and distance two races back vs. maiden $50,000 foes, the daughter of Mr. Big switched to grass and shortened to a sprint in her most recent outing and stayed on well without really landing a blow in the final furlong, winding up a respectable fourth, beaten less than three lengths. Back under more favorable conditions today and looking sharp in a recent workout, the S. Knapp-trained filly should be capable of tagging the speed close home. Our Little Tiger graduated in a maiden $50,000 affair recently at seven furlongs and from the rail should have her chance to stretch out successfully to a mile while projecting to be on or near the lead throughout. She is not fast on speed figures but none of these really are. Race Judicata seems a progressive sort, and after beating maiden claimers sprinting nearly two months ago returns protected while stretching out for a barn that always has solid stats with this angle. We suspect the daughter of Vronsky will employ gate-to-wire tactics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: X
Single: 8-Fly to Mars

Forecast: Fly to Mars is an ex-classer that has gotten good again after being realistically campaigned by connections that usually do the right thing with their claiming stock. A five-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and with a style that usually produces a soft stalking journey, the P. Miller-trained gelding shows a steady, healthy work pattern at San Luis Rey Downs since his most recent win in early February and seems the solid choice, though at even money on the morning line he will not be offering much in the way of wagering value. If it is not him, it could be anybody, so we can use him as a short-priced rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Money Mike; 2-Flightline

Forecast: This is a loaded maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds, with the inside two runners among those that are highly-regarded by their connections. Flightline has looked like a stone runner in the a.m. for the J. Sadler stable and as a million dollar yearling purchase the son of Tapit debut with much anticipation. The barn has out standing stands with first-time starters, so if he breaks with his field, he should be hard to beat. Money Mike must avoid traffic problems from the rail but with a clean start and a trouble-free trip the son of Into Mischief should make a serious run for it. The B. Baffert barn has glittering stats with newcomers (30%) and this $600,000 yearling purchase should be more than fit following a series of highly impressive workouts. We will try to get by using just these two with Flightline getting a slight edge on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Pharoah’s Heart; 2-As Time Goes By; 4-Harvest Moon

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Santa Margarita S.-G2 drew just five entrants, three of which look capable of winning. This is a pass race other than to triple the race in our rolling exotics and hope to get the best price home. As Time Goes By, listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite, is lightly-raced, fast on numbers, continues to train well, and has further improvement in her. She has an ideal stalking style that will allow M. Smith to pick his position and move when he wants to. Harvest Moon was dead short in her comeback in the Beholder Mile-G1 but will not be today based on her breezing workouts since that mid-March event. She has a history off firing her best shot following a prep, so we are expecting to see her best stuff today. Pharoah’s Heart lands the rail, adds blinkers, and may try gate-to-wire tactics. Her speed figures are strong and with just three starts on her resume the daughter of American Pharoah has a right to be better than shown.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:22 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Ole Silver

Forecast: 2-Ole Silver has the pedigree to improve a ton routing and finally gets her chance to prove it in this nine furlong grassy starter optional claimer for fillies and mares. The daughter of Acclamation continues to train in highly impressive fashion, goes for a barn that has strong stats with the sprint-to-route angle, and switches to bug girl J. Pyfer, who seems likely to employ the proper gate-to-wire tactics that should bring out the best from this P. D’Amato-trained filly. Lightly-raced with plenty of improvement in her and listed at 6-1 on the morning line, she is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:53 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Tigre Di Slugo; 5-Fashionably Fast

Forecast: Tigre Di Slugo is strong on numbers, is thoroughly genuine and consistent, and returns to the second level allowance ranks after finding his best stride too late when a distant runner-up in the San Carlos S.-G2 behind runaway winner Brickyard Ride last month. This is an easier task, to be sure., so we are expecting the M. Puype-trained gelding to regain his winning form over this extended sprint distance that seems ideal for his mid-pack, late-running style. Fashionably Fast is back around one corner where he has always been most comfortable and appears the one to fear most. A four time winner of the Santa Anita main track, the veteran Lucky Pulpit gelding should be within striking range throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:24 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-That’s Amare; 7-Rockie Causeway

Forecast: This first-level allowance turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares brings together two progressive recent maiden winners that appear capable of scoring right back on the raise. Rockie Causeway has speed figures that are gradually rising with every start, and with another forward move today the daughter of Giant’s Causeway will be hard to contain from off the pace. Freshened since mid-February but with a strong and healthy recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs, the R. Baltas-trained filly is a genuine and consistent sort can handle any distance or race shape. That’s Amare is a bit faster than ‘Rockway on pure numbers and after finishing a an excellent second in her debut to subsequent stakes winner Leggs Galore and then graduating over the local lawn in a fast race in next outing in late February, the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Unusual Heat is the likely choice and one to beat. We will use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Rockie Causeway on top.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: Gold Rush Weekend at Golden Gate

April 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday and Sunday is Gold Rush Weekend at Golden Gate Fields. Eight stakes will be featured over the two days of action. To help you handicap some of the headliners, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for the California Derby and the San Francisco Mile.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Golden Gate Fields // California Derby // Race 8 // 7:30 PM ET

#3 Parnelli // 37% W // 45%P // 59%S
#5 Stalking Shadow // 14% W // 28%P // 52%S
#8 Omph // 14% W // 22%P // 38%S
#2 Jimmy Irish // 10% W // 38%P // 52%S
#1 Lost In Space // 7% W // 32%P // 42%S
#6 Govenor’s Party // 7% W // 18%P // 29%S
#7 Tesoro // 5% W // 9%P // 14%S
#4 Twilight Rider // 5% W // 9%P // 14%S

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Golden Gate Fields // San Francisco Mile // Race 9 // 8:07 PM ET

#2 Keeper Ofthe Stars // 22% W // 42%P // 61%S
#5 Ohio // 16% W // 36%P // 44%S
#3 Whisper Not // 16% W // 24%P // 38%S
#7 Brown Storm // 14% W // 25%P // 44%S
#6 Border Town // 10% W // 21%P // 33%S
#8 Restrainedvengeance // 8% W // 21%P // 33%S
#1 Kiwi’s Dream // 8% W // 14%P // 24%S
#4 Diamond Blitz // 8% W // 14%P // 24%S

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks Triple Crown Preps: Federico Tesio at Pimlico

April 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday’s Triple Crown prep race toward the Preakness and Belmont Stakes will be the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico. The winner earns an automatic berth into the Preakness field May 15, and this race has produced at least 1 Preakness or Belmont starter each of its last 6 years held in the spring.

To help you handicap the premier stakes 3 weeks in advance of the Preakness, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for both races. Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Pimlico // Federico Tesio Stakes // Race 10 // 5:37 PM ET

#1 Excellorator // 28%W // 47%P // 62%S
#8 Maythehorsebwithu // 18%W // 33%P // 48%S
#4 The Reds // 17%W // 36%P // 50%S
#6 Zertz // 12%W // 25%P // 40%S
#7 Shackled Love // 8%W // 17%P // 31%S
#5 Hello Hot Rod // 7%W // 21%P // 32%S
#2 Tiz Mandate // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S
#3 Royal Number // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Mama Superior I liked her a bit last time out on the cutback, but she showed nothing that day. Back to what she does best around two turns, she has some serious bounce-back potential today.
#5 Smoothlikebuttah She gets into an easier spot today after racing on turf last out, and she might get a decent finishing trip into a fair pace. Best race of her life came at this trip.
#2 Plum Sexy She hinted at some potential talent, but she hasn't been able to put things together in recent starts, and now she's in for a tag while stretching out and adding blinkers -- seems like they might be trying anything to get her to wake up.
Race Summary Mama Superior is capable of something much better than she showed last time out and the move back around two turns should give her a real claim on the top spot with these.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Harvest Moon She looked like something of a short horse last out when facing some of these in the Beholder Mile, but she's better than what she showed that day and might improve off it from close range.
#2 As Time Goes By Probably sits in a spying spot today after rallying to be a no-threat second behind Swiss Skydiver in that last one, but I think she's overbet here.
#1 Pharoah's Heart The addition of blinkers might be enough to get her on the front end, and she might be able to hang around for a piece if the splits aren't too fast.
Race Summary Harvest Moon is really good when she's on, and she looked like she needed her last when being asked to hustle and keep up a bit earlier than expected. Better here.

Santa Anita - Race #11
Picks Notes
#5 That's Amare She was second best behind sharp turfer Leggs Galore in her debut, and she wasn't too hard pressed to land the maiden win. Thinking she wins right back.
#7 Rockie Causeway She's stepping up here with some tactical pace, and she appears to be the most likely beneficiary if the top choice doesn't fire.
#10 Kristi's Tiger She has only tried the turf once, but it was a pretty decent effort around two turns, and her good sprint form might transfer footing.
Race Summary That's Amare is a single for me to close the card -- she has flashed some talent through two starts and meets a beatable field for her first try with winners.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

- Race #0
Picks Notes
#4 SWIPE RIGHT Fits well on best, gets high-percentage amateur driver.
#5 INUKCHUK CHUCK Changes tactics, led until stretch, can use speed well.
#6 SOUTHWIND FROST Rallied for minor awards the last two times he stayed flat.
Race Summary Swipe Right trotted evenly in 1:55 two starts ago, then broke stride last week. He draws favorably and should be forwardly placed with 25-percent amateur driver in the bike. Play 4-5 and 4-6 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 LOVELY MUNRO Held up by stalled cover in repeat attempt, gets Wrenn.
#7 SOPHIE'S CANDY Piling up the seconds, makes third start as a 3-year-old.
#6 SHE KNOWS IT ALL Beaten fave from post 10 at Miami Valley off layoff.
Race Summary Lovely Munro picked up cover behind the 5-2 second choice, but the cover stalled, forcing her to go 3- and 4-wide from the far turn to the finish. She draws a better post and gets Wrenn to drive. Play 4-6 and 4-7 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #11
Picks Notes
#3 STONEDUST All revved up with no place to go in latest, live longshot for sure.
#5 COVERED BRIDGE Led most of way, caught late in 1:49.3, one to beat.
#8 IMA REAL LADY'S MAN Sustained first-over rally to win from post 8, steps up.
Race Summary Stonedust was full of pace but had nowhere to run while trying to weave through stretch traffic at a higher level. He is today's Best Bet at 8-1 on the morning line. Play 3-5, 3-8 and 5-3 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Golden Gate Fields - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Lost in Space Ran an even third at Santa Anita in his first U.S. start since winning three in a row at Linfield and Newmarket (two) to end the 2020 campaign in the U.K.. Has worked well since his first one in America and Callaghan has him ready to meet stakes company here. Moving to Tapeta from turf should not be a problem.
#3 Parnelli Tired and finished well back in the G3 Robert Lewis and G1 Santa Anita Derby in his last two and will find this group more to his liking. Could get comfortable on the front end in his first on the All-Weather.
#2 Jimmy Irish Breezed to victory in his only start and stretches out off that win at 5.5 furlongs; battled early long and got stronger as the race progressed. The distance will be a challenge but he clearly has talent, and trainer Wong has more than his fair share of success over this strip.
Race Summary Lost in Space was a non-threatening third in a solid turf allowance at Santa Anita in his first since September and initial effort since moving over from Great Britain. The rail is not a bad place to be (23 percent) and Callaghan is 20 percent in turf to All-Weather moves. Will have to step up his game but likely will since he needed his last one in a big way. Expect improvement here.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Whisper Not Race fans who miss the legendary turf runner Obviously might think they're having a bit of a flashback when they see Whisper Not, who is developing the same running style in turf races and is only getting better as he gets used to American racing. He ended his time in Britain with a 20-length score at Pontefract and followed with a win at Lingfield before moving to southern California. He's nowhere nearly as accomplished as the aforementioned superstar but when he was 10 lengths in front through three-quarters in 1:09 1-5 he looked similar. He held on by a 1 1-4 lengths in that allowance. He was third all the way in the G2 Mathis Brothers Mile. He'll be the one to catch today.
#1 Kiwi's Dream Lost this race last year by a head to Neptunes Star and tuned up with a fourth in a starter allowance at Santa Anita in January; strong player on the front end and probably will be a stalker today. He's been unlucky with three straight seconds over the course and is back to where he does his best running. Gets a rider switch to Orozco, who was second aboard him in the Rolling Green Stakes in his last of 2020.
#5 Ohio Ran close to the lead and won at Turf Paradise last time, but won't be anywhere close to the front early in this one. He's done well off the pace and can move into the exotics late.
Race Summary Whisper Not looks like he's developing into a strong middle-distance turf horse and get his first American stakes win in this miler.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #10
Picks Notes
#4 Styledome Was fourth in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita in his first U.S. start and finds a place where she can improve; she won her last two at Dundalk before moving here and can get a perfect stalking trip here.
#7 Pizzazz Has been competitive in good turf races and the Mandella runner can make the switch to Tapeta in good order.
#1 Risen Lady Front runner has won two straight here, the latest on turf; can get to the lead and will be a big danger if she can back up the pace.
Race Summary Styledome has a good chance to improve in her second U.S. start after having success on All-Weather tracks in Ireland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Deportivo Alaves at Valencia
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 24, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score YES (-105)
Spain La Liga
Valencia has the 2nd highest BTTS record this year with 21 of their 32 games finishing with both teams on the scoreboard. Additionally, when these two teams get together, this prop has been perfect in 11 straight meetings between these teams dating back to 2016 including a 2-2 draw at Alaves back in November.
You can get this prop at a pick’em price of -105 but if you really want a big bang for your buck, go pair Valencia to win + BTTS to score for a huge +420 return. Valencia have won four of their last five at home and have beaten Alaves in five straight at home with this prop coming through in all five games.
TAKE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE YES
Line Parameter: 2% to -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Deportivo Alaves at Valencia
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 24, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Valencia + Both Teams to Score YES (+420)
Spain La Liga
TAKE VALENCIA + BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE YES
Line Parameter: 1% to +350