Service Plays Saturday 4/24/21

[rocky57]

Pickswise Sports

MLB Best Bets
Cardinals -109
Brewers -105
Twins -1.5 runs [+105]

[rocky57]

Pickswise Sports

NHL Best Bets
Ottawa +132
Winnipeg/Toronto Over 5.5 [-135]

[rocky57]

The Sports Geek

NBA
Nuggets -13.5
Heat/Bulls Under 205

MLB
Dodgers -142
Braves/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 [-118]

NHL
Florida +105
St Louis +152

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Sportsline Computer

MLB

Twins -202

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Matt Severance

N.Y. YANKEES @ CLEVELAND | 04/24 | 6:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: Reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber available as a runline home underdog, even at the high price of -180? Yes, New York is starting Gerrit Cole, but I have to take it. Some books have the Indians favored and thus the + RL would not be available so we will jump while we can.

+400 18-11 IN LAST 29 MLB ATS PICKS
+170 3-1 IN LAST 4 NYY ATS PICKS
1:43 PM

CAROLINA @ FLORIDA | 04/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
FLORIDA -103
ANALYSIS: Carolina is an excellent team and won at Florida 4-2 on Thursday. Still, getting the also-excellent Panthers as home dogs is great value. Florida will turn to Chris Driedger in net this time and he is 6-2-1 with a 1.55 GAA at home this year.

+1749 120-76 IN LAST 196 NHL PICKS
+455 7-2 IN LAST 9 CAR ML PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 FLA ML PICKS
1:39 PM

L.A. ANGELS @ HOUSTON | 04/24 | 4:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -155
ANALYSIS: Absolutely learned my lesson to not go -1.5 on the runline Friday. I figured Houston would beat the Angels but tried for the better value. The Stros did win but only 3-2. I usually recommend only runline underdogs, and that's what I'll be doing going forward. That said, I'm not taking it here. But I will stick with Houston considering the Halos remain without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

+179 7-4 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS
1:30 PM

MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 04/24 | 2:20 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE +1.5
ANALYSIS: I had done very well taking the Cubs at +1.5 on the runline vs. the Mets early this week but got clobbered on Friday backing the Brewers +1.5 at Wrigley as the Cubbies rolled. Still, I like it here again behind Freddy Peralta (2-0, 2.00). He has allowed one run in 11 innings against the Cubs this year. Chicago goes with wild youngster Adbert Alzolay (0-2, 6.10) and will give Javy Baez the day off.

+400 18-11 IN LAST 29 MLB ATS PICKS
+54 2-1 IN LAST 3 CHC ATS PICKS
1:26 PM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5 Star Baller

MLB: San Francisco Giants -143

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Marc Lawrence
Texas rangers

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Indian Cowboy NBA

3 - Lakers +2

[rocky57]

H&H Sports
College Football Playoffs - Final

CFB
Southern Illinois +6
Delaware -20

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H&H Sports

MLB
3* Angels +137

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Good evening

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins OVER 7 (10*)


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In Game Trap

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Sebastian Sports/Seabass
2nd Update

NBA
300 Lakers

NHL
300 Maple Leafs-M/L
300 Wild-M/L
300 Knights P/L

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Kyle Marley

UFC

Kamaru Usman (-400) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+320): Usman by unanimous decision

Usman is too good to pick against and he deserves this high betting line. Usman is the best wrestler in the division, and he always has that to fall back on if needed. This is his huge advantage against Masvidal. Usman can also beat pretty much everybody in the division with his striking as well. His pace and pressure are top notch, and he is always dictating where the fight takes place. The only way Masvidal is going to beat him is by knocking him out, and I don't see that happening

Zhang Weili (-185) vs. Rose Namajunas (+165): Namajunas by decision

Weili is coming off maybe the greatest fight I have ever seen, and she is fighting a former champ in Namajunas. This is going to be another super technical striking match and a Fight of the Night candidate. The champ probably has the best hands and power in the division, but Namajunas has more tools in her striking toolbox. She might be the better grappler as well. I think Weili wins if she can keep the fight on the inside and make it more of a brawl or boxing match. Namajunas is live if she can use her movement to avoid that and pick her shots from the outside and try to mix in takedowns. I agree with the champ being the favorite, but -190 is a bit too high. The value is on the underdog.

Valentina Shevchenko (-400) vs. Jessica Andrade (+320): Shevchenko by stoppage

I am picking Shevchenko over everybody not named Amanda Nunes, but this won't be an easy fight and it is a good matchup. Andrade is always exciting, and she has the power to knock people out. She is a better wrestler than most in the division. Her only advantage is in power and she needs a knockout to beat Shevchenko. Andrade can land takedowns, but Shevchenko's Jiu-Jitsu will be more dangerous than Andrade's ground-and-pound. Those takedowns will also take away from the cardio of Andrade in a five-round fight. This should be a striking match and Andrade is going to be pushing forward throwing bombs. Shevchenko should just be too good and too fast, and I see her picking Andrade apart.

Uriah Hall (-115) vs. Chris Weidman (-105): Hall by stoppage

This is a rematch from over a decade ago when Weidman finished Hall in the first round. Weidman still has a big wrestling advantage, but I think he is going to have to use it to win. His striking game looks completely washed at this point and, if Hall can stuff takedowns, Weidman might be in trouble. If this fight were a couple years ago, I would be taking Weidman. However, I think he looked like a shell of his old self and I don't want to pick him against any high-level UFC competition.

Jim Crute (-190) vs. Anthony Smith (+170): Crute by decision

I think Crute can win this fight on the feet, but his biggest advantage will be his wrestling and grappling. I like his power on the feet as well but, if this is a point-fighting match, that would probably favor Smith. I think Crute lands multiple takedowns and maybe he locks up a submission, but I will take him by a clear decision.

Randy Brown (-155) vs. Alex Oliveira (+135): Oliveira by stoppage

Brown should be the better and more technical striker, and he also has solid grappling. I think Oliveira is more likely to look to get this fight to the ground and he is the more aggressive fighter. I think he will be pushing forward and throwing the harder shots. He is a bit wild and hard to trust, but I think Oliveira can finish him on the feet or the mat.

Dwight Grant (-250) vs. Stefan Sekulic (+210): Sekulic by decision

I have never been sold on Grant and I think his power is his best attribute. He isn't a high-paced striker, so I would never feel good about him winning a decision and I would take Sekulic in a grappling match. Grant is also 36 and I just don't see many improvements coming from him. This line is too wide, and I am going to take Sekulic to get the win.

Brendan Allen (-130) vs. Karl Roberson (+110): Allen by submission

Roberson should have a big striking edge, but I don't see Allen looking to stay on the feet long. Allen will probably look for a takedown in the first 30 seconds and, if he gets it, I think he dominates in top control. He can win a decision that way, but I think he will be relentless with the wrestling and grappling. I see him getting a submission.

Patrick Sabatini (-220) vs. Tristan Connelly (+190): Sabatini by decision

I like Sabatini in this one. I think he is the better fighter everywhere and he can win with a TKO, submission, or decision. Connelly can hang on volume in striking, and can get a submission if he is able to take Sabatini's back. I just think Sabatini is the better wrestler and he will dictate where this fight takes place, and I think he is the better back-taker as well.

Danaa Batgerel (-145) vs. Kevin Natividad (+125): Natividad by decision

This should be primarily a striking match and either guy could land a big shot. I think it is a close fight if it goes to the scorecards and this is a 50-50 fight to me. Give me the underdog.

Zhu Rong (-250) vs. Rodrigo Vargas (+210): Rong by decision

Rong looks like a decent prospect and I think he will be the more talented striker and grappler. Vargas has big power, and he is live to win by knockout or use heavy takedowns to keep top control long enough to win two rounds. I think Rong probably picks him apart on the feet as long as he avoids the big bombs.

Jeff Molina (-110) vs. Qileng Aori (-110): Aori by stoppage

Aori is well-rounded and his striking is very solid. He should have a big edge while this fight is on the feet. Molina is going to need to get to the mat and he might be able to submit Aori. I don't think he is a good enough wrestler to rely on that, so I think we see a lot of striking. I think Aori can win a decision, but I am going to take him to get an early stoppage.

Ariane Carnelossi (-180) vs. Na Liang (+160): Liang by submission

Carnelossi is a beast. She has a similar striking style to Jessica Andrade with her aggressive combos and heavy power. She has legit power and that is rare in this division. Liang is going to want to get this fight to the mat and, if she is successful with takedowns, she is live for a submission. If she can't get the takedowns, then she is probably in trouble on the feet and might even get finished. I like LIang to get a submission upset at some point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ian Parker

UFC 261

Kamaru Usman (-400) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+320): Usman (best bet)

Kamaru Usman will be defending his title in a rematch against Jorge Masvidal. In their last meeting, Masvidal took the fight on short notice and saved the event from losing its top fight. Usman clinched against the cage and outwrestled Masvidal to win by unanimous decision. With a full fight camp, Masvidal believes he can keep the fight standing and out-strike Usman to become the new welterweight champion. Even so, Usman continues to get better with every fight. In his last outing, he fought former training partner Gilbert Burns. Usman weathered an early onslaught and finished Burns in the third round. Usman's improved striking and endless cardio should help him close the distance on Masvidal and take the fight to the ground, where he will have the biggest advantage. Masvidal is extremely hard to finish so I expect Usman to get the win via decision as he controls the fight over the full 25 minutes.

Zhang Weili (-185) vs. Rose Namajunas (+165): Weili (best bet)

After losing to Jessica Andrade via head-slam TKO, Namajunas bounced back a year later and took a split-decision win over Andrade. Her striking was precise, and she utilized her speed advantage to land combos throughout. If she wants to regain her championship belt against Weili, she will need to use her kicks to slow down the champ and take away her power. However, this is much easier said than done. Weili has the ability to take strikes and deliver them twice as hard, as we saw in her last fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. We also saw her finishing ability as she took out Andrade in Round 1 to become the champion. I expect the champ to press forward and take the fight to Namajunas over the course of the 25-minute contest. The challenger may have some success early on but, as the fight goes on, we have seen her slow down. When that happens, expect Weili to take control and remain the champ.

Valentina Shevchenko (-400) vs. Jessica Andrade (+320): Schevchenko (best bet)

After a split-decision loss to Rose Namajunas, Jessica Andrade decided to jump up a weight class and take on a new challenge. As we saw in her fight against Katlyn Chookagian, it was the right choice. Andrade's power carried into the 125-pound weight class as she finished Chookagian at the end of Round 1. On Saturday night, Andrade will be looking to do what only Amanda Nunes as done in the UFC, dethrone Valentina Schevchenko. Andrade has the physical power to do so if she can close the distance and put Schevchenko on her back and keep her there. In order to get close enough, she will have to avoid the precise and unpredictable striking of Shevchenko. Schevchenko, known for her arsenal of strikes, will throw everything at Andrade to keep her as far away as possible. As long as Schevchenko can avoid Andrade's takedowns and power punches, she should be able to dictate the pace of the fight and out-strike her opponent.

Uriah Hall (-115) vs. Chris Weidman (-105): Weidman (best bet)

This is a rematch from 2010, and both Uriah Hall and Chris Weidman are looking to climb the rankings in the middleweight division. Hall is riding a three-fight win streak, with his latest win coming by TKO over fading legend Anderson Silva. Hall will be the better striker but will need to avoid the takedowns of Weidman if he is looking to get closer to title contention. After losing two in a row, Weidman got back in the win column over the very tough Omari Akhmedov. Weidman went back to his roots and wrestled his way to victory. If the former champ wants to make it two in a row, he will have to push the pace on Hall and get the fight to the ground as soon as possible. He needs to use his striking to close the distance and turn this fight into a grappling match, where he has a major advantage. If he executes that plan, he will be on his way to another victory.

Jim Crute (-190) vs. Anthony Smith (+170): Crute (best bet)

Anthony Smith will be taking on highly touted prospect Jimmy Crute. This will be the second fight in a row in which Smith will be looking to show the world that he is not a gatekeeper and that he is a still a threat in the light heavyweight division. Crute will be looking to add Smith to his resume and get his third win in a row. Crute's last performance ended by KO and Submission. Crute should have the speed and strength advantage Saturday night. As long as he doesn't get overly confident and get caught in a submission, Crute should be able to control the fight wherever it goes and get the win.

Brendan Allen (-130) vs. Karl Roberson (+110): Allen (best bet)

All of Karl Roberson's three defeats have come by submission. On Saturday night, he takes on submission ace Brendan Allen. Expect Allen to use calf kicks and his striking to close the distance and force the fight to ground. Once it gets there, Allen imposes his will and gets the submission.

Danaa Batgerel (-145) vs. Kevin Natividad (+125): Batgerel (lean)

A battle among two aggressive strikers, both fighters will be looking to put on a show and look for the finish. Kevin Natividad will be looking to bounce back off of a KO loss to Miles John back in October of 2020, while his opponent will be looking to make it two wins in a row. Look for Batgerel to get the better of the exchanges, and if the fight hits the floor, he will have the ground game advantage as well.

Jeff Molina (-110) vs. Qileng Aori (-110): Molina (lean)

This rates to be a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Aori is a good striker who is looking to get the win over Molina and make it seven in a row. Aori will need to keep the fight on the feet or he will be in a world of trouble. Molina is the better grappler, with three of his last four wins coming by submission. Molina has good enough striking to avoid the power of Aori and get the fight to the floor.

Ariane Carnelossi (-180) vs. Na Liang (+160): Carnelossi (lean)

Stylistically, this is a nightmare matchup for Liang. Expect Carnelossi to use her strength and athleticism to bully the smaller Liang and force her to strike at range. Unless Liang is able to put Carnelossi on her back, she will get picked apart on the feet and be overwhelmed by the output of Carnelossi.

Zhu Rong (-250) vs. Rodrigo Vargas (+210): Rong (lean)

Riding a 10-fight win streak dating back to 2018, Zhu Rong looks to get another win by KO on Saturday night against Rodrigo Vargas. Vargas was taking the fight to Brok Weaver in his last fight until an illegal knee gave him his second loss in a row. Vargas is an aggressive striker who is more than willing to take a shot in order to deliver one. If he plans to do that Saturday night, he better make sure he lands efficiently as Rong has the power and counter striking to end the fight quickly.

Randy Brown (-155) vs. Alex Oliveira (+135): Brown (lean)

Seasoned veteran Alex Oliveira will be looking to bounce back from his loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov back in 2020. Oliveira tends to start quickly with his striking, but eventually fades as the fight goes on. Randy Brown is a talented prospect who also will be looking to avenge his most recent loss. Brown's striking game continues to improve and should be the deciding factor. As long as he can weather the early kicking storm of Oliviera, Brown should be able to utilize his striking combinations and get the win.

Dwight Grant (-250) vs. Stefan Sekulic (+210): Grant (lean)

After losing to Daniel Rodriguez, Dwight Grant will be looking to bounce back in a big way. He will have the striking advantage over Sekulic, who leans heavily on his grappling. As long as Grant uses his reach and keeps the fight on the feet, he should get the win over the grappler Sekulic.

Patrick Sabatini (-220) vs. Tristan Connelly (+190): Sabatini (lean)

We last saw Tristan Connelly in 2019, when he stepped up on short notice and got the upset win over Michel Pereira. After two years away from the cage, he will be taking on the talented Pat Sabatini. If it wasn't for an arm injury, Sabatini would be riding a seven-fight win streak dating back to 2018. Sabatini will have the edge in both striking and grappling. I think Connelly's inactivity, in addition to dropping down two weight classes, will have a negative impact on his performance and Sabatini will be too much for him to handle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Wise

UFC

Kamaru Usman (-420) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+330): Usman by TKO (+250)

This was an interesting choice by UFC to run this back. The storyline is understandable after Masvidal got the call on six days' notice while not in training camp, but the results still remain the same. Usman has the feel of a generational talent at 170 pounds with his incredible size and strength for the division. While Masvidal has heavy hands if this becomes a war on the feet, the more likely result is for Usman to drag this down to the ground and suffocate him with punches and elbows. Usman is more than capable of outwrestling him for 25 minutes if he feels threatened in a firefight.

Weili Zhang (-210) vs. Rose Namajunas (+175): Zhang by TKO (+240)

This fight got a bit spicier with Namajunas injecting some Cold War rhetoric into the buildup. Regardless, this is setting up to be an incredible war of attrition on the feet. Neither has shown a willingness to take fights to the ground of late with more of a preference to stand and trade. The key will be if Zhang can get inside of Namajunas' reach much like she did against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their classic from a year ago. Namajunas is typically cool and collected in those types of battles by sticking to her jab to keep opponents at bay. But her mindset has me questioning where she is mentally ahead of this one. Look for Zhang to handle business in a thriller.

Valentina Shevchenko (-420) vs. Jessica Andrade (+330): Shevchenko by decision (+150)

This has some interesting potential, but I still think this ends up being a blowout. Andrade is a former champion at 115 pounds and making her second appearance in a new weight class against the champion because of the dearth of challengers. Her power remains a huge plus even at this weight, but her size could get her in trouble here. Andrade was already fairly small for 115, and now she's taking on an opponent who will have a four-inch height and reach advantage while being a world class Muay Thai fighter. Shevchenko will be smart to avoid pushing for the knockout and play it safe with counter strikes as she takes another decision victory in an empty division.

Uriah Hall (+100) vs. Chris Weidman (-120): Hall by TKO (+210)

Uriah Hall remains a bit of an enigma in this sport. He's clearly got the game to be a top-level competitor in the middleweight division, but seems to come by short in big spots. This could be classified as one as he faces a former champion in Weidman, but this feels like two fighters heading in opposite directions. Hall has righted the ship since a losing streak in 2016 with four wins in his last five that includes three TKOs. Weidman, meanwhile, picked up his first win since 2017 last August by decision while holding a 2-5 record since 2015. It will be a poor reflection on Hall if he isn't able to get the job done here.

Jimmy Crute (-195) vs. Anthony Smith (+165): Crute by decision (+325)

Jimmy Crute seems to be rounding into form as a top contender at 205 pounds. The Australian is 5-1 since making his U.S. debut with stoppages in every fight. He seemed to learn a crucial lesson from the loss to Misha Cirkunov in 2019. Now, he gets a seasoned veteran in Anthony Smith who is tough to get a read on. He's 2-2 since a title loss to Jon Jones in 2019 with his two losses leaving a ton to be desired. It feels like he's reached gatekeeper status in a division thin on title challengers and this could tell us a lot about the future at light heavyweight. Expect Crute to press the gas early and see if he can't get Smith to buckle under the pressure, but Smith has enough of a chin to hold up for the duration.