Thursday 4/29/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #5

#3 Dolder Grand	He's Grade I placed on the turf from the Summer Stakes last year at Woodbine, so he's interesting on the move back to the grass after facing some pretty stout groups in New Orleans.
#1 Win Worthy	That was a good debut effort behind a very logical winner, and I think that guy has some price appeal in stakes company this weekend. Big chance with any step forward.
#8 Awakened	Think this guy would be interesting enough if he offered something like the 12/1 ML price. His best lifetime race came on the lawn, so maybe the surface switch will wake him up off the bench.
Race Summary	Dolder Grand has some really tough company lines from those races at Fair Grounds, and he turned in a couple of good efforts on the turf to open his career in Canada.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#6 Set Piece	Think he can land the right kind of trip behind what figures to be a fair pace if this group stays intact. Price should be right to see if a cutback sharpens his late kick.
#1 Sayyaf	He has looked like a different horse since moving around two turns and posting a couple of sharp scores. He rises off the Maker claim, and this barn does really good with this type of high-end claimer turned stakes horse. Move him up if any of the other speed comes out.
#7 Snapper Sinclair	He has knocked heads with some solid types throughout his career, and his better turf form would stack up nicely with this group. Chance.
Race Summary	Set Piece figures to get the right kind of setup if all the pace stays on, and this feels like the kind of group he may be able to best after disappointing as the chalk in the Kentucky Cup Classic.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#2 Change of Control	She's a perfect 3-for-3 over the local turf course and brings a nice score with her from Keeneland last out in which she handled a few of these. Another great trip tracking the pace should be in store.
#4 Oleksandra	Big finisher has some pretty serious company lines, and there are a few pace players signed on who may set the table for a late run.
#1 Into Mystic	She hit the top before settling for second behind Change of Control as the even-money chalk last out, and she has been overbet in several consecutive starts. Better number today?
Race Summary	Change of Control should be in line for another spying trip behind a few pace players, and something like the 4/1 ML price would seem appealing enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#8 GINGER TREE SKYR	Can handle class rise with re-run of his first victory of the season.
#6 COMMON PARLANCE	Buried lesser, rounding to another good race, Miller's choice of two.
#3 WHETHER OR NOT FI	Got past the favorite but settled for second best.
Race Summary	Ginger Tree Skyr advanced first-over the blew past the pace-setting favorite with ease, earning a playback on the class rise. He starts from post 8 again but should offer good betting value as a result. Play an 3-6-8 exacta box.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3

#3 BELLA BELLINI	Accelerated on her own courage in comeback romp, can't go beyond.
#1 COLLEGE TUITION	Holding excellent form, won from the rail.
#4 WORTHY OF HONOR	Finished second in 5 of 8 starts at Pocono Downs this year.
Race Summary	Bella Bellini ran away from the 1-to-5 favorite through a :56 back half in a smashing seasonal debut. She takes on mostly male rivals today but it shouldn't be a problem. Play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #5

#4 PARDON MY WAY	Can sustain rally in bid to surpass $100,000 in earnings.
#7 ONLY FOR JUSTICE	Arrived from Canada in good form, ran third at odds-on, merits respect.
#1 ROSE RUN VINCENT	Led long way from rail in latest, switches pilots.
Race Summary	Pardon My Way finished a non-threatening fourth behind some hard hitters (See Rock of Cashel in race 9 today) but could mount a contending rally at a good price today. His four wins this year tops the field. Play 4-1 and 4-7 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#1 Chica Boom	Ran a good race in her first distance and turf attempt as she set the pace and hung around for third. She drops back half a furlong and can improve in her third effort. One to beat.
#2 Eskimo's Boss	Lacked a big finish and wound up sixth vs. open company and can benefit from dropping into a Florida-bred race.
#3 Art of Law	Was a non-threatening fourth at Tampa last out and can probably bring a decent rally.
Race Summary	Chica Boom comes off a solid performance in only her second start and looks like she's going to get nothing but better. Will be difficult for rivals to handle today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#5 Crea's Bklyn Law	Has a strong late move and will get a good pace in front of him; comes out of decent races and can run on past in this one.
#2 Create Again	Drops out of handicaps and starter allowances and will be troublesome on the front end.
#1 Rebelde	Was outrun in much tougher races and is in a N3L spot in which he should be competitive.
Race Summary	Crea's Bklyn Law has done well over this strip and under Lopez can get going when it's time to go.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#5 Ranger Up	Ran on for third in his last two races and is due to get it done; should have not a problem with turf at this level.
#6 Mitzrayim	Has been going against better competition and can improve in his third of the year.
#1 Call Bros	Fell off a bit last time when he ran sixth after a pair of thirds at this level; can make a run here.
Race Summary	Ranger Up has been competitive in most of his races and he was at a much higher level the only time he tried turf; Vasquez can have him running on well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

Sam Houston Race Park - Race 4	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 4-5) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 57 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 5:21P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GLIMPS OF A WINNER: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
9	GLIMPS OF A WINNER	5/2	4/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LEAVING YOU ALONE	3	7/2	Fast	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	HALEYS FAST CASH	8	6/1	Average	58	34	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	GLIMPS OF A WINNER	9	5/2	Average	82	63	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	JESS A SWEET DREAM	10	9/2	Average	59	31	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: JAELS SIGN (8/1) [Jockey: Mares Jr Jorge A - Trainer: Rios Zackery N], LOTTA FIZZ (12/1) [Jockey: Vivanco Luis L - Trainer: Huitron Joel], PRIZED PIE PERRY (20/1) [Jockey: Ramirez Froylan T - Trainer: Castillo Miguel A], RACEY

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 11	Late Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $12,500 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 10:20
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DADDYS GOT ACES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CARTEL FORM: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CAPOS RENEGADE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. HEZA PRIZE CONTENDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KOOL OKEY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
7	DADDYS GOT ACES	7/2	9/2
9	CARTEL FORM	9/2	6/1
3	CAPOS RENEGADE	5/1	8/1
5	HEZA PRIZE CONTENDER	15/1	9/1
10	KOOL OKEY	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JESSIES GOOD CANDY	1	10/1	Average	55	59	5.4	0.0	0.0
2	PRIME CARTEL	2	8/1	Average	57	59	3.6	0.0	0.0
3	CAPOS RENEGADE	3	5/1	Fast	80	67	3.4	0.0	0.0
4	LISAS SPECIAL WOODY	4	15/1	Slow	64	54	8.7	0.0	0.0
5	HEZA PRIZE CONTENDER	5	15/1	Average	77	71	5.1	0.0	0.0
6	HONKITONK	6	15/1	Fast	71	69	2.4	0.0	0.0
7	DADDYS GOT ACES	7	7/2	Average	85	80	4.1	0.0	0.0
8	FIRST PRIZE SUSIE	8	4/1	Average	71	65	5.5	0.0	0.0
9	CARTEL FORM	9	9/2	Slow	77	75	6.4	0.0	0.0
10	KOOL OKEY	10	8/1	Average	71	67	4.2	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#6 VRONILLA PARFAIT (ML=4/1)
#4 QUEEN HELENE (ML=1/1)
#3 MEET MISS KITTY (ML=8/1)


VRONILLA PARFAIT - The Brain taught me this angle. Watch for animals that show good zip, drop back, then run evenly with a stretch drive. Stay with this horse. No other viable pace gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. Last ran at Golden Gate Fields and finished fourth. Reviewing her PP lines, I see she was close at the end, within five of the winner. QUEEN HELENE - Last race March 28th was pretty strong for a $16,000 Claiming race so this mare's effort wasn't all that bad. Strong return on investment for this jock and trainer tandem. Thomas enters this thoroughbred in a spot where she should fit well based on her last two speed figures. The 92 last race rating looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. This horse brings in a lot of dough per race. Tops in this race. MEET MISS KITTY - DeLima brings her right back. I recommend you stick with this strong mare.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CROWN KITTEN (ML=7/2), #1 NAMORITA (ML=8/1),

CROWN KITTEN - Last ran on Mar 28th at Golden Gate Fields, finishing sixth. Unlikely to advance off of that try in today's event. NAMORITA - Not easy to wager on any racer in a sprint event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 VRONILLA PARFAIT on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 86

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 29, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 AWESOME SIGHT 2/1
# 1 SURF HEAT 5/1
# 3 WILDWOOD DANCER 5/2

AWESOME SIGHT looks to be a very good contender. This gelding looks very good for this event since Garciaorozco has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Likely to see this animal to be right there on the wire versus these racers. Could beat this group given the 86 speed rating recorded in his last outing. SURF HEAT - He has been running very well and the speed figures are among the most respectable in this field. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of decent win percentage - 19 percent - at this distance & surface. WILDWOOD DANCER - He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

04/29/21, GP, Race 4, 2.15 ET
04/29/21,GP,4,7 1/2F [Turf About] 1:26:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $29,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (If no three-year-olds are entered, older weight will revert to 120 lbs.). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turfcourse, it will be run on the main track at Seven Furlongs) (Rail at 60 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Garner State Park	3/1	Maragh R R	Crichton Rohan	FEC	584	32.53	1.11/$1
097.0327	1	Starry Hope	8/1	Morelos J E	McGoey Monica	SL	584	32.53	1.11/$1
096.3338	7	Karenville	5/1	Berrios H I	De La Cerda Armando		563	29.66	1.16/$1
095.1692	3	Touring Egypt	4/1	Zayas E J	Pompay Teresa M.	T	230	36.96	1.24/$1
095.0089	4	Tami's Orchid	7/2	Sutherland C	Abreu Fernando		563	29.66	1.16/$1
094.4951	8	Kick Out the Jams	12/1	Gonzalez E	Maker Michael J.	J	563	29.66	1.16/$1
091.4226	2	Awildas Treasure	20/1	Vasquez M A	Cordero-Lopez Alexis	W	563	29.66	1.16/$1
091.3860	5	Smooth Pebble	9/2	Lopez P	Clement Christophe		563	29.66	1.16/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 27.14, ROI 0.79/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.9673
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]LastRaceWasSprintWithSprintToday
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Garner State Park	3/1	Maragh R R	Crichton Rohan	FEC	248	27.02	0.83/$1
097.9297	4	Tami's Orchid	7/2	Sutherland C	Abreu Fernando		248	27.02	0.83/$1
097.5116	1	Starry Hope	8/1	Morelos J E	McGoey Monica	TSL	248	27.02	0.83/$1
096.6122	7	Karenville	5/1	Berrios H I	De La Cerda Armando		34	38.24	1.26/$1
096.4714	5	Smooth Pebble	9/2	Lopez P	Clement Christophe	W	162	40.74	1.53/$1
094.7372	8	Kick Out the Jams	12/1	Gonzalez E	Maker Michael J.	J	123	35.77	1.29/$1
094.0623	3	Touring Egypt	4/1	Zayas E J	Pompay Teresa M.		248	27.02	0.83/$1
089.4624	2	Awildas Treasure	20/1	Vasquez M A	Cordero-Lopez Alexis		248	27.02	0.83/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 23.21, ROI 1.03/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.0703
[Category]Condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Stakes - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, DESERT CLASSIC FUTURITY CONSOLATION S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLD, WHO STARTED IN THE TRIALS FOR THE 2021 DESERT CLASSIC FUTURITY TRIALS AND FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE FINALS. WEIGHT: 122 LBS. PREFERENCE WILL BE DETERMINED BY TIME FROM THE TRIALS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 FIRE AN RAIN 5/2
# 7 WALKIN AWAY 9/2
# 8 SEPARATE ISSUE 10/1

I think FIRE AN RAIN is a decent choice. Has to be considered versus this group of horses in this race displaying solid figures lately and an average Equibase speed fig of 69 under similar conditions. Her earnings per start in short contests alone makes you take a look at her. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this racer look quite good in this race. WALKIN AWAY - Has performed strongly as of late in short races, posting a nifty 69 avg speed rating. This gelding looks like a longshot with a chance. SEPARATE ISSUE - This racer has to be bet on at the expected big odds. He has been running solidly and the speed figs are among the best in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #8 - Post: 8:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#4 C F JOHNATHAN (ML=10/1)
#7 KANNON WITH A K (ML=20/1)
#10 FIRSTTIMEVALENTINE (ML=8/1)


C F JOHNATHAN - With a big class drop in class figure points from his Feb 18th race at Fair Grounds. Based on that information, I will give this horse the advantage. KANNON WITH A K - This horse's last race was out at Delta Downs in a race with a class rating of 63. Dropping significantly in class rating this time puts him in a solid position in today's race. FIRSTTIMEVALENTINE - Ran against 'open' company last time around the track, in with state breds today. This rider and trainer have a positive return on investment when they join forces. The last fig of 51 is the highest last race speed fig in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SPECIAL STORM (ML=2/1), #5 COMERUNNINBOYS (ML=7/2), #8 DIT (ML=9/2),

SPECIAL STORM - This chalk horse ran on March 16th and hasn't had a morning drill after that. COMERUNNINBOYS - Doubtful for this entrant to do much running with no recent success in a short distance race. Awfully hard to play this steed when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit lately. Quite unimpressive rating in the last race at Delta Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this entrant will improve too much in today's race. DIT - Just cannot bet on this entrant. Didn't show me anything positive last out or on March 10th.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FIRSTTIMEVALENTINE - At first glance the last event doesn't look that good, but upon further inspection that race fits right with this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 C F JOHNATHAN to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Granada at Barcelona
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Barcelona to Win Both Halves (-105)
Spain La Liga
This is built on the premise Barcelona is most likely going to keep a clean sheet, but even if they don't they can still cash this bet.
Atletico have coughed up their lead of over 10 points just a couple months ago and Barcelona with a win here will go atop the table for the first time since Round 4.
Meanwhile Granada away from home have been a disaster this season with just a 3-3-10 record and -16 goal differential and have lost seven of their last eight games in all competitions. They lost 0-2 at Man United in the Europa League with United winning this prop with a goal in each half while Sevilla would have cashed this ticket this past weekend if not for a 90' penalty for Granada which saw them draw the 2nd half in a 1-2 loss.
Barcelona have led at the half in 18 of 32 matches this season which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's the most in the league by quite a bit with Atletico having the 2nd most halftime leads with 14. They have also led at the half and cashed this ticket by winning both halves in six of the last nine H2H meetings with Granada.
Very little chance we see anything but a Barcelona win in this game and if the current spread is any indication, we should see Barcelona score early and often in this match.
TAKE BARCELONA TO WIN BOTH HALVES
Line Parameter: 3% to -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (201865) Granada CF at (201866) Barcelona FC
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score - Yes (+100)
We like the ‘Both Teams to Score - Yes’ prop on Thursday in the Spanish LaLiga matchup between Granada and Barcelona.
Barcelona are a team hitting stride right now and have a chance to claim top spot on Thursday if they manage to overcome Granada here at home.
While that's no doubt expected, Barcelona's defense hasn't exactly been fantastic of late by any stretch, with just one clean sheet over their last six LaLiga games, often content to simply overpower teams.
And that's what I expect here again on Thursday in a game Barcelona likely win by margin in, but also concede in as well.
Granada put 3 past Barca in the Copa del Rey quarter-final in an absolutely electric comeback by the Catalans over the final few minutes of that game back in February, and both teams have scored in all eight of Granada's most recent road games, so another BTTS is likely here.
Take the ‘Both Teams to Score - Yes’ prop on Thursday in the game between Granada and Barcelona.
PLAY: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) St. Louis Cardinals
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -135 A Nola (RHP), K Kim (LHP) Must Start
951 Philadephia Phillies at 952 St Louis Cardinals +125, 7

The Cardinals and the Phillies meet on the Mississippi for the finale of a four-game series. The Philadelphia Achilles, over the last couple of years, continues in April of 2021. The shortcoming being the Phils road woes (3-8 as a visitor).

The host Cardinals send Kwang Hyun Kim to the hill in a game that the Phils have scheduled their ace, Aaron Nola. Kim has two starts covering 8.2 innings of work in which he has surrendered 10 hits; four earned runs with one walk and 12 strikeouts. The Cards right-hander worked 5 2/3 of one-run baseball in his first season win over the Reds, striking out a career-high eight batters.

Nola is the constant in the Phils rotation. No drama, no recent or scheduled surgeries, and despite no contract extensions that include mega-million dollar negotiations, the veteran continues to deliver. Nola has five starts and 31.2 innings of work completed in 2021. That work includes 27 hits, 10 runs, 32 K's against just 4 BB's with an ERA and xFIP of just under 3.00. The free pick is a play on Nola and the Phils as small road chalk.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Event: (501) Dallas Mavericks at (502) Detroit Pistons
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Under 214.5 (-110)
The Mavericks fall into a very strong 17-1 UNDER situation of mine that dates back to January 21, 2015 and has landed under the posted total by an average margin of 18.61 points. Dallas is 8-3 UNDER in its last eleven games off a straight-up win (5-1 off a double-digit win), 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games after covering the point spread, and 7-2 UNDER in its previous nine games with one day of rest. The Pistons are 5-1-1 UNDER in their last seven games as underdogs, 6-1 UNDER in their last six games versus .501 or greater opposition, and 6-1-1 UNDER in their previous eight games overall. Take the UNDER as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick Winner for Thursday, April 29.