Saturday 5/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:37 PM

Kentucky Derby Draw Rapid Reaction
April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

A capacity field of 20 entered today for Saturday’s 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and longtime track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia designated unbeaten Essential Quality (post 14) the 2-1 morning line favorite. The run for the roses will be Race 12 of 14 on a program that gets underway at 10:30 am ET. Derby post is 6:57 pm ET.

The 20-horse starting gate, which debuted last year with only 15 starters in the Derby, could change what we know about the importance of post positions. Gone is the gap between posts 14 and 15 when there was a main and auxiliary starting gate connection. The extra real estate allows for the new gate to be positioned a few crucial feet farther away from the inside rail. This could alleviate some of the inside congestion at the start, as well as the abrupt left-hand intensity of the outside runners crushing down to fill the void.

But the Derby pace is not as clear on paper as some years, and that could make the starting positions very important in terms of jockey intent and how they’ll want to settle into their preferred spot.

Rock Your World (post 15) and Medina Spirit (post 8) were 1-2 throughout the Santa Anita Derby, the former appearing more naturally gifted with early foot. With ex-sprinter Highly Motivated in post 17 off a wire-to-wire Blue Grass attempt when second, that could turn up the pressure on Rock Your World early. Soup and Sandwich (post 19) has trained very aggressively and was forward in the Florida Derby. He’s the most likely to bolt early from that post, again outside of Rock Your World.

To their inside, Hot Rod Charlie (post 9) wrestled command at the start of the Louisiana Derby. He could have the most early foot of anyone in the first 9 starting spots. With hot-training Midnight Bourbon (post 10) next door, that’s a potential pace hook-up as well – with the other principal speeds pressuring from outside. I would say this draw should help pick up the pace of the Derby.

Essential Quality should be midflight early in the Derby, but showed in the Blue Grass he’s capable of pressing the pace and pouncing. Jockey Luis Saez wired the 2019 Derby aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified for interference. That he knows the front-end feeling in this race should not be lost on possible rider intent.

None of the leading contenders are deep closers. Florida Derby winner Known Agenda wants a mid-pack trip, but could find that crowded from the rail and will have to work out a journey under Irad Ortiz Jr. But Todd Pletcher’s Super Saver, a horse Known Agenda stylistically mirrors, carved such a winning run here in 2010 from post 4 while on the rail most of the way.

Kentucky Derby 147 Field:

1. Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
2. Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke) 50-1
3. Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli) 50-1
4. Keepmeinmind (David Cohen) 50-1
5. Sainthood (Corey Lanerie) 50-1
6. O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza) 20-1
7. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux) 15-1
8. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez) 15-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat) 8-1
10. Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith) 20-1
11. Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz) 20-1
12. Helium (Julien Leparoux) 50-1
13. Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano) 50-1
14. Essential Quality (Luis Saez) 2-1
15. Rock Your World (Joel Rosario) 5-1
16. King Fury (Brian Hernandez) 20-1
17. Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano) 10-1
18. Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
19. Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1
20. Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche) 30-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:38 PM

Analysts Provide Updates

April 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Millie Ball’s Updated Workout Notes

MIDNIGHT BOURBON

Midnight Bourbon’s final work April 26 was very different from his breeze April 19. While still enthusiastic about his job, he remained controlled from start to finish, and by working alone this week, there was no temptation to race his company. His is an imposing 3-year-old who, on this particular morning, moved very fluidly over the Churchill surface and who, according to Steve Asmussen, “has a high cruising speed which will be hard to keep pace with.” He appears the type who will need to break cleanly to afford him a chance to set the pace. I fear any early traffic will be detrimental to this very big, fleshy colt. Being that he is fresh, with six weeks between races, this five-furlong work, five days out, should help keep his feet on the ground until raceday!

KNOWN AGENDA

As I predicted, Known Agenda’s final work came 8 days prior to the race on April 23, Todd Pletcher sticking with the exact same schedule as Always Dreaming from his 2017 victory. It was no more flashy than any one of his others since the Florida Derby win, but this colt strikes me as having a huge advantage over his Derby rivals. NOTHING is going to rattle this son of Curlin. When paired up, on the inside or outside, he will do only as much as is asked of him, and appears honest enough to keep producing more whenever given the cue to do so, in this case a couple of taps during the work and on the gallop-out by his pilot, Irad Ortiz Jr. His efficiency over this track will only help his cause.

Michelle Yu’s Updated Workout Notes

ROCK YOUR WORLD

Very good energy from Rock Your World this week (April 24 at Santa Anita) as he dragged his rider to be in front of his company by the top of the turn. Extending pretty much on his own, he powered away from a much overmatched mate, which seemed to give him a boost of energy. Moving fluidly in the lane and he continued a healthy gallop-out. Happy horse.

HIGHLY MOTIVATED

Final prep was at CD April 24 in company after working at Keeneland prior. Picking it up, he showed an instant acceleration when the rider let his hands down an inch. Mate under a drive before the top of the stretch and Highly Motivated maintained his advantage with the rider statuesque in the irons. Excellent work, though he did need a tap to finish the gallop-out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:38 PM

Jeff Siegel's Kentucky Derby Workout Analysis/Power Rankings

April 28, 2021

(Listed in order based on the grades assigned to each workout)
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ROCK YOUR WORLD - April 24, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

See Workout

Broke off about a half-length outside behind Best Chance (5f, 1:00h) and was cruising to the top before being given his cue and leaving his workmate easily with powerful long strides under light hand coaxing, then continued out to the 7/8 pole while full of run, splits on our watches of :24 flat, :35.2 and :59.2 to the wire and then out a full six furlongs in 1:11.3 without really taking a deep breath. This is the best we have seen him work; prior to his Santa Anita Derby win the son of Candy Ride needed to be pushed and shoved on to earn fast clocking but now he is doing it on his own. Galloped out like he will relish 10 furlongs and farther. GRADE: A
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DYNAMIC ONE – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :47.4b

See Workout

In blinkers, in company breaking off a length behind outside Prime Factor (same time) for T. Pletcher, engaged that one entering the lane and was breezing through the lane to finish stride-for-stride before being asked to gallop out stronger than ‘Factor to the six furlong pole and did so in good style while appearing sharp and on edge. Improving with experience and maturity and appears set to produce another forward move. GRADE: B+
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HELIUM – April 23, 2011, Churchill Downs, 4f, :49.4b

See Workout

Broke off a length behind workmate, was breezing in effortless fashion while taking control into the lane and was just cruising to the wire before galloping out without taking a deep breath and appearing sharp and content. Undefeated in three career starts and was pounds best (very wide throughout) in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his only 2021 outing six weeks ago. GRADE: B+
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SAINTHOOD – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

See Workout

In company outside Known Agenda (same time) for T. Pletcher and may have been a tad the best while appearing to be going the easier of the two most of the way without ever being turned loose (workmate under mild coaxing at the head of the lane to remain even), with the pair galloping out stride-for-stride to the six furlong pole. Had plenty throughout, certainly handled the dirt track just fine and appears to have come on nicely since his last race in mid-March. GRADE: B+
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HOT ROD CHARLIE – April 24, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.3h

See Workout

In blinkers, in company outside Chasing Fame (5f, 1:01.3h), breaking off a couple of lengths behind workmate at the five furlong pole and stalking that one in hand to the head of the lane before responding without being asked to roll on by in a visually pleasing manner, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and 1:00.4 (to the wire) and then out to 7/8 pole in 1:13.2 on our watches (eased up to the six furlong pole in 1:27.2). Not scintillating from a time standpoint but did just what was asked of him and was nice and relaxed and happy throughout. GRADE: B
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MANDOLOUN – April 17, 2021, Churchill Downs, 6f, 1:11.2b

See Workout

In blinkers, team drill outside Colonel Bowman (6f, 1:11.4b) for B. Cox, breaking off a length behind while being hard held, joining his company midway on the turn, hitting the wire almost a length in front without being asked (workmate under urging) and then being put to some pressure to finish out the drill to 7/8 pole and then gallop out an extra furlong. Did well enough, strikes us as a one-paced grinding type without a true turn of foot. GRADE: B
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BOURBONIC – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :49.4b

See Workout

In blinkers, worked alone and looked fine without being asked, steady splits before galloping out with some energy all the way around to the half mile pole, doing what was asked of him. Plenty fit, maintains his form, the farther the better for this long-winded son of Bernardini. GRADE: B
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ESSENTIAL QUALITY - April 17, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, :59.3b

See Workout

In blinkers, in company outside Spa City (5f, :59.4b) while in hand to the top of the lane and then was under mild coaxing to finish head-and-head at the wire (workmate lightly ridden as well) but never could get by ‘City galloping out despite being ridden as bit with workmate slightly best by almost one length galloping out to the six furlong pole. We cannot knock the drill – the clocking was good, and the B. Cox-trained colt was moving well - but we were hoping to see a bit more from the Kentucky Derby favorite. GRADE: B
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KNOWN AGENDA – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

See Workout

In blinkers, in company inside Sainthood (same time), went off in hand but was about a half-length back at the top before being asked a bit through the lane (workmate breezing) and “re-rallied” to wind up head-and-head at the wire, then galloped out stride-for-stride, decent drill though it appeared workmate could have opened up a bit through the lane if allowed to. Curlin colt is not a speed type, and this type of drill probably does not cast him in his best light; we will classify it as a decent drill but not much better than that. GRADE: B
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MEDINA SPIRT – April 22, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h

See Workout

In company outside Azul Coast (6f, 1:12.1h) for B. Baffert and went stride-for-stride with ‘Coast to the head of the lane (neither being asked) before drawing clear approaching the wire to be a little more than a length in front that point (mostly on his own), then drew clear while being ridden out to 7/8 pole while appearing to be leaning in just a tad, splits of :23.3, :35.3, 1:00 flat and 1:12.2 on our watches, galloping out six furlong pole in 1:26.3 well clear of workmate while perhaps losing his focus just a bit. Solid final time but not particularly noteworthy from a visual standpoint. Looks about the same, no better, no worse. GRADE: B
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SOUP AND SANDWICH – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :50b

See Workout

In company outside Peace Achieved (4f, :50.3b) for M. Casse, was extremely rank approaching the pole while attempting to break off a couple of lengths behind workmate, dropped his head and relaxed a bit once in motion but remained under a tight hold to the top of the lane and then was pulling hard while taking control through the stretch before drawing clear under wraps and remaining somewhat unsettled on the gallop out. Was too keen for our liking early on and may be the type that will resent rating tactics; probably be happiest if simply allowed to bowl along. Previous drill (April 17) was much smoother and more relaxed. GRADE: B-
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O BESOS – April 22, 201, Churchill Downs, 4f, :48b

See Workout

In blinkers in solo drill, under a hold from the three furlong pole while wanting to get out a bit entering the lane, then was put to pressure while passing the wire and then continuing out to the six furlong pole, never really leveling and not producing the desired response. Perhaps needs company; hard to endorse enthusiastically based on this move. GRADE: C

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Our Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. On the eve of the Kentucky Derby, here is a listing of our Elite-8.
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1 – ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($546,600). Derby points: 100
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, 10F Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in three starts, most recently in his first try on dirt when registering a gate-to-wire victory in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Medina Spirit) while setting fast fractions and then repelling all challenges to drew clear in the final furlong with complete authority (and galloping out far in front); earned a career top 100 Beyer speed figure in his latest outing (tops among intended Kentucky Derby starters); previous two wins were accomplished on grass, the listed 8F Pasadena S. in February in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) and a maiden over 6F on grass on New Year’s Day (by one and three-quarter lengths while appearing to toy with his opposition); pedigree suggests he’ll thrive over a classic distance and farther; has proven to be effective on the lead or from a stalking position though he’s yet to experience dirt kickback; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 at least among the first three favorites; has never been a particularly willing performer in the morning but his most recent workout April 17 (5f, :59.3h) was his best yet; still a bit green in the p.m. (switched leads twice in the stretch in his most recent start) but has the kind of potential that could reach a championship level.
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2 – ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0 ($2,265,144). Derby points: 140
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 24, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.2b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; 2020 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old enters the Kentucky Derby-G1 with a perfect record in five starts, most recently when fully extended to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 (by a neck from Highly Motivated) while enjoying a trouble-free pace-stalking trip; had reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior); completed his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Keeneland in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie and before that with a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 (from Keepmeinmind); speed figures have risen with every start but without a significant leap and with a career top Beyer number of a good-but-not-great 97; proven so far to be thoroughly genuine and versatile (though not particularly willing in morning workouts) while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and will be the deserving favorite in the Kentucky Derby-G1.
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3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was categorized early in his career as a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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4 – HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 24, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.3h

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register a two length score from Midnight Bourbon while establishing a new track record (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 – HELIUM (M. Casse) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 4f, 49.4b

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and then the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the front speed and also from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and will have two months in between races while training up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field than actually providing him with the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.
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6 – MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 5-2-3-0 ($315,200). Derby points: 74
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F, Kentucky Dereby-G1
Latest workout: April 22, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from the first crop of a multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); was no match as the 4/5 favorite to Rock Your World when second (beaten four and one-quarter lengths) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April, enjoying an ideal pace-stalking trip outside but then proving unable to quicken when the pressure was turned on at the head of the lane; previously had finished a distant second to unbeaten Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; before that displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; speed figures are decent but have stagnated in recent outings; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance but though he’s clearly a reliable and consistent sort his lack of progression and his one-paced style provide concern that he may have reached his ceiling.
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7 – HIGHLY MOTIVATED (C. Brown) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($320,050). Derby points: 50
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workoutt: April 24, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.4b

The Skinny: $240K though the ring as a weanling (retained by his breeder); first foal, dam a Canadian-bred sprint SW at 3; in the frame in all five career starts and earned a career top speed figure in his most recent start in early April when second (was five and one-half lengths clear of the rest) as the controlling speed in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 by a neck to Essential Quality, giving way grudgingly close home but with while benefitting from a race flow that may have flattered the performance; previously appeared a tad rusty when third (by a length and three-quarters to Weyburn) when making his seasonal bow in the 8F Gotham S-G3 the previous month; displayed plenty of potential when easily capturing the listed 6.5F Nyquist S. on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland in November; pedigree suggests a classic distance will be stretching his limit; due to the projected pace flow may have to alter tactics in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that will prevent the same type of soft trip in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that he enjoyed in the Blue Grass S.-G2.
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8 – SOUP AND SANDWICH (M. Casse) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0 ($203,875). Derby points: 40
Last start: March 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 4f, :50b

The skinny: Live Oak Stud homebred; Monmouth Park allowance-winning dam traces to a solid midwestern family that includes Til Forbid (Arlington Oaks-G3, etc.); won his first two career starts in excellent fashion, a state-bred 6.5F Gulfstream Park maiden by seven and one-quarter lengths and then a middle distance allowance event at Tampa Bay Downs by two and three-quarter lengths, both victories accomplished utilizing pace pressing/stalking tactics; took on much tougher competition in his most recent outing in the 9F Florida Derbny-G1 and acquitted himself quite well when establishing the pace and then staying on gamely to be second (by two and three-quarter lengths to Known Agenda) while three lengths clear of the rest; a genuine sort but is suspect at a classic distance; will need to improve again to make his mark in the spring classics but with just three career starts has room to for further development.
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Also eligible: Dynamic One (T. Pletcher); Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Super Stock (S. Asmussen); O Besos (G. Foley); Bourbonic (T. Pletcher); Mandaloun (B. Cox); Like the King (W. Ward); Sainthood (T. Pletcher); King Fury (K. McPeek); Hidden Stash (V. Oliver); Brooklyn Strong (D. Velasquez); Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:39 PM

Kentucky Derby Draw Rapid Reaction

April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

A capacity field of 20 entered today for Saturday’s 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and longtime track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia designated unbeaten Essential Quality (post 14) the 2-1 morning line favorite. The run for the roses will be Race 12 of 14 on a program that gets underway at 10:30 am ET. Derby post is 6:57 pm ET.

The 20-horse starting gate, which debuted last year with only 15 starters in the Derby, could change what we know about the importance of post positions. Gone is the gap between posts 14 and 15 when there was a main and auxiliary starting gate connection. The extra real estate allows for the new gate to be positioned a few crucial feet farther away from the inside rail. This could alleviate some of the inside congestion at the start, as well as the abrupt left-hand intensity of the outside runners crushing down to fill the void.

But the Derby pace is not as clear on paper as some years, and that could make the starting positions very important in terms of jockey intent and how they’ll want to settle into their preferred spot.

Rock Your World (post 15) and Medina Spirit (post 8) were 1-2 throughout the Santa Anita Derby, the former appearing more naturally gifted with early foot. With ex-sprinter Highly Motivated in post 17 off a wire-to-wire Blue Grass attempt when second, that could turn up the pressure on Rock Your World early. Soup and Sandwich (post 19) has trained very aggressively and was forward in the Florida Derby. He’s the most likely to bolt early from that post, again outside of Rock Your World.

To their inside, Hot Rod Charlie (post 9) wrestled command at the start of the Louisiana Derby. He could have the most early foot of anyone in the first 9 starting spots. With hot-training Midnight Bourbon (post 10) next door, that’s a potential pace hook-up as well – with the other principal speeds pressuring from outside. I would say this draw should help pick up the pace of the Derby.

Essential Quality should be midflight early in the Derby, but showed in the Blue Grass he’s capable of pressing the pace and pouncing. Jockey Luis Saez wired the 2019 Derby aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified for interference. That he knows the front-end feeling in this race should not be lost on possible rider intent.

None of the leading contenders are deep closers. Florida Derby winner Known Agenda wants a mid-pack trip, but could find that crowded from the rail and will have to work out a journey under Irad Ortiz Jr. But Todd Pletcher’s Super Saver, a horse Known Agenda stylistically mirrors, carved such a winning run here in 2010 from post 4 while on the rail most of the way.

Kentucky Derby 147 Field:

1. Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
2. Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke) 50-1
3. Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli) 50-1
4. Keepmeinmind (David Cohen) 50-1
5. Sainthood (Corey Lanerie) 50-1
6. O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza) 20-1
7. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux) 15-1
8. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez) 15-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat) 8-1
10. Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith) 20-1
11. Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz) 20-1
12. Helium (Julien Leparoux) 50-1
13. Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano) 50-1
14. Essential Quality (Luis Saez) 2-1
15. Rock Your World (Joel Rosario) 5-1
16. King Fury (Brian Hernandez) 20-1
17. Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano) 10-1
18. Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
19. Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1
20. Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche) 30-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:39 PM

Jeff Siegel's Oaks/Derby Day Analysis - May 1, 2021

April 30, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. This race-by-race analysis zeroes in on the Friday, April 30, 2021 13-race card on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, May 1, 2021

RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cool Bobby; 5-Soros; 6-Sounion

Forecast: The opener is a challenging one-turn mile first-level allowance event for older horses that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We will try to get by using just three. Soros, a former stakes winner at this distance but away for more than a year, returns as a first-time gelding and is protected in a sign of confidence. If the lightly-raced son of Commissioner returns with his best stuff he can act with these. The work tab looks pretty decent for new trainer M. McCarthy, whose record with layoff runners is quite good (20% with a massive ROI). Sounion, another making his first start since being gelded, has never been worse than second in three prior starts over the Churchill Downs main track, and in a race that projects to have a comfortable early pace the son of Liam’s Map should find himself favorably placed while on or near the lead. He is fast enough on speed figures to handle this assignment and is reunited with “win rider” J. Leparoux. Cool Bobby was a 10 length winner over this track and distance (albeit on a sloppy surface) last fall and could inherit the role as the controlling speed if aggressively sent from the bell. He is another with recent speed figures that make him dangerous.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cadencia; 7-Cerulean; 10-Elle Est Forte; 11-Anthropology

Forecast: This grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares is another that offers several possibilities, some at very good prices. The strategy is to spread deeply and hope for a blowout payoff. First-time starter Cerulean is listed at 15-1 on the morning line but we suspect she is much better than that. A $180,000 OBS March sale purchase last year after breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, she finally makes it to the post and is bred to do her best work going long on the lawn. From a capable outfit and with L. Saez in the saddle, the daughter of Air Force Blue recorded a bullet gate drill at Keeneland (47 2/5 seconds, fastest of 101 for the distance) two weeks ago that should have her fit and ready. Anthropology, pegged at 30-1 on the morning line, has the two-sprints-and-stretch-out angle on her resume, and after a couple of runs over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park finally gets a chance to perform on the surface for which she was bred (Karakontie). On pure speed figures she is fairly competitive, so we will definitely include her. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Cadencia, second vs. similar foes in her last three starts, two of which came as a strongly backed favorite. She lacks tactical speed and therefore may not be able to take full advantage of her inside draw, but with good racing luck and some help up front the T. Pletcher-trained filly will be heard from late. Elle Est Forte likewise has good recent from under these conditions and her speed figures are improving with every start. With another forward move today, the daughter of Flintshire will be right there.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:31 ET Grade: B+
Use: 5-Koolhaus; 7-Alejandro

Forecast: We will double this race in rolling exotic play, but the main push will be reserved for Koolhaus, a developing 3-year-old from the B. Cox barn. With two good sprints under his belt in stronger-the-par races for the level, the son of Nyquist should be much more comfortable with an extra furlong to work with today, and from a stable that hits at a remarkable 32% with stretch-out runners this 3-year-old colt projects to settle in the second flight before being turned loose from the quarter pole home. There is plenty of value to be found at or near his morning line of 9/2. Alejandro finished first in a maiden router at Fair Grounds last month and earned a good figure in doing so, but had his number taken down for causing interference, so he is back with maidens again today. He is a son of Curlin from a daughter of Rachel Alexandra, so much is expected, and this S. Asmussen-trained sophomore certainly appears headed in the right direction.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:04 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Salvator Mundi; 6-Hay Dakota; 9-Gun It

Forecast: This messy turf miler for second-level allowance older horses is another affair that offers several price chances. Gun It is listed at 10-1 on the morning line and offers a good gamble at that price. He has been winless since the fall of 2019 but has raced on grass only once in his career (a good third place finish in a similar allowance event at Kentucky Downs last September) and today picks up J. Rosario. The S. Asmussen-trained horse is solid on numbers and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip. Hay Dakota, at 8-1 on the morning line, is another “must use.” A two=time winner over the local lawn, the veteran gelding does his best work from off the pace and should have plenty of pace today to set compliment his style. Salvator Mundi is a shipper from California with credentials to be competitive off his best race. The son of Artie Schiller goes for the always-potent P. D’Amato/F. Prat combo (31%) and will have every chance from a mid-pack early position to wear down the leaders in the final furlong.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Who Took the Money; 5-Ghazaaly

Forecast: Ghazaaly is a progressive Ghostzapper colt with improving speed figures and is fresh from a nice maiden score at Keeneland last month. This is not a particularly strong first-level allowance event so with continued progression the T. Pletcher-trained colt should be capable of winning right back. Who Took the Money is undefeated in three starts – each of his wins have come against Louisiana-bred competition - and today he gets tested in open company. The speed figure he earned two races back at Fair Grounds will make him a very strong fit and arguably the potential favorite and one to beat. We should be able to survive and advance just using these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:14 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Got Stormy; 6-Blowout

Forecast: Blowout has a history of firing fresh and the C. Brown barn hits at 27% with layoff runners so we are expecting this English-bred mare to fire a big shot in her first outing since being nosed out in the Matriarch S.-G1 last November. She has generally been a front-running type but can stalk and pounce if the pace flow dictates, so F. Prat has the option of taking her back early if he so chooses. Got Stormy made hard work of it to win the Honey Fox S.-G3 in her most recent appearance in February and at age six with 27 races behind her she is probably not quite as good as she once was. Still, the M. Casse-trained mare always has to be respected. The pace should be quick and perhaps contested so her projected second flight, stalking position should have her in the proper position when called upon in the final furlong. We will use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Blowout on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 1:56 ET Grade: X
Single: 4-Gamine

Forecast: Gamine is listed as the 1/5 morning line favorite, and it will take something unforeseen for her to be upset in the Derby City Distaff S.-G1 at her preferred distance of seven furlongs. The B. Baffert-trained filly did not have to be anywhere near her best to win the Las Flores S.-G3 in her seasonal bow at Santa Anita last month by five lengths and should be expected to be even sharper and fitter today. She can easily establish the pace in a field that lacks another front-running type and then do what she pleases from there as a no value free bingo square for rolling exotic players.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:48 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Defunded; 5-Prevalence; 8-Dream Shake

Forecast: We are going to try to beat the 3-1 morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior, who may not quite be the same colt that was so impressive and precocious last year. If you would feel more comfortable including him on your rolling exotic ticket, go ahead. Instead, we will focus on three talented 3-year-olds who are turning back from route races to a one-turn mile, a distance that they should be ideally suited for. Dream Shake should enjoy this shortened distance after finishing a willing but weakening third in the Santa Anita Derby. His debut sprint win was spectacular, so if he can duplicate that type of performance today he will be tough to beat. Recent workouts indicate the P. Eurton-trained colt is ready to bounce back in a big way. Defunded was highly impressive breaking his maiden two runs back and then wound up a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in a race that he probably was not quite ready for. Back around one turn today, removing blinkers, and switching to I. Ortiz, Jr., the gelded son of Dialed In sports a bullet five furlong workout (:59 flat) since raced and looks capable of settling off the pace and then blasting home. Prevalence failed to stay nine furlongs when unplaced in the Wood Memorial S.-G2 last time out and was victimized by traffic most of the way, so we will toss that race out. If he can run back to either of his first two races, the B. Walsh-trained colt can act with these. He is 6-1 on the morning line and that seems about right.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Annex; 5-Du Jour; 13-Scarlett Sky

Forecast: Annex and Scarlett Sky know each other well – they were heads apart when Annex won the Cutler Bay S. at Gulfstream Park - and then ‘Sky returned to frank the form when winning the Transylvania S.-G3 at Keeneland last month. Both deserve to be well-backed again in this middle distance turf event restricted to 3-year-olds, with Scarlett Sky deserving a very slight nod on top in a race that has sufficient speed signed on to compliment his closing style. We will also toss in the B. Baffert-trained California invader Du Jour, a Temple City colt with rising numbers in each of four outings that include two recent dominating scores against lesser foes. Today we will find out what he is made of.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:31 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Mind Control; 5-Tap It to Win; 4-Flagstaff

Forecast: We are going to approach this race under the assumption that Whitmore has lost a step or two at age eight with 40 races of wear and tear behind him. The popular gelding may vulnerable again after failing as the favorite when twice beaten by C Z Rocket at Oaklawn Park in his two most recent outings. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is listed at 7/2 in this year’s renewal of the Churchill Downs S.-G1, and while that seems like a square price if you can get it, we will look elsewhere. Tap It to Win got a confidence-building win at Tampa Bay Downs in his comeback in late March and should be able to build on that effort today. In a field without intense early speed, the M. Casse-trained colt should be close up throughout and have every chance from a stalker’s position or maybe even on the front end if the situation presents itself. He is reunited with regular pilot J. Velasquez and appears primed for a career top performance. Flagstaff, pegged as the morning line favorite at 3-1, always is most effective in extended sprints, and after winning the Commonwealth S.-G3 last month at Keeneland he should be a live item right back, though it is puzzling that J. Rosario jumps off to ride Endorsed (listed at 12-1). Mind Control offers good middle-price value at 6-1 and is worth including as well. Four of his seven career wins have been accomplished over this seven furlong distance and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. the veteran son of Stay Thirsty projects to settle in the second flight and then be troublesome from the furlong pole to the wire.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:27 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Colonial Liam; 4-Ivar

Forecast: This year’s Turf Classic-G1 is highly contentious, but two appear to stick out in the field of nine. Colonial Liam seeks his fourth straight stakes win and this lightly-raced 4-year-old, with just seven career starts, has room for further improvement as he develops and matures. The T. Pletcher-trained colt prefers to settle in the second flight and then blast home, and with regular jockey I. Ortiz, Jr. remaining aboard – he could have opted for Hollywood Derby-G1 winner Domestic Spending - the son of Colonel Liam looks capable of continuing his winning ways. Ivar, highly-impressive winning the Shadwell Turf Mile-G1 at Keeneland last fall and then a respectable fourth (beaten two lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile-G1 in November, returns off the bench for low percentage connections at a distance (nine furlongs) that he has never tried before. However, the Brazilian import was bred on Southern Hemisphere time and will not actually turn five until October, so we suspect this winner of five races from eight starts has plenty of improvement still in him. There are others on paper look dangerous, but we will try to survive and advance using just these two, with preference on top to Colonial Liam.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:57 PT Grade: B+
Use: 14-Essential Quality; 15-Rock Your World; 12-Helium

Forecast: Here is the bottom line. We very much like Rock Your World to win this year’s Kentucky Derby and this undefeated son of Candy Ride will receive the bulk of our play both in the win pool and in our rolling exotics. Perfect in three starts and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer speed figure when winning the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in his first try on dirt, the J. Sadler-trained colt should be prominent throughout and perhaps even on the lead, just as he was in his most recent victory. However, ‘World was victorious from slightly off the pace in both his maiden win and in the Pasadena S., so the options are there for jockey J. Rosario to adjust to whatever race flow comes his way. Rock Your World is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and we see sufficient wagering value at or near that price. There are two other undefeated colts in the race, and they are at opposite ends of the wagering spectrum. Essential Quality, the 2-1 morning line favorite, is genuine, dependable, versatile, and must be respected, though he is not particularly imposing on speed figures. Helium (50-1) is considerably more dangerous than what the bare form shows in his Tampa Bay Derby-G2 win in a race in which he was forced to lose a considerable amount of ground throughout yet found the type of reserve energy when challenged in the final furlong that only good colts have. You can use all three in exactas and trifectas if you would like, along with other reasonable contenders such as Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, and perhaps even Dynamic One, who at 20-1 should run a career top and may be able sneak in for at least a piece of it.
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RACE 13: Post: 7:55 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Prime Factor; 7-One Fast Cat

Forecast: This first-level allowance extended sprint for 3-year-olds looks very much like a stakes race and in fact most of these will be competing in added money events in the near future. Prime Factor broke his maiden like a future star sprinting in his debut but then disappointed in a pair subsequent graded stakes races around two turns. Freshened, backing up in trip and adding Lasix for the first time, the son of Quality Road still has a chance to be a decent sort and this race may confirm out suspicion that he is best suited to sprint at this stage of his career. If so, the T. Pletcher-trained colt will be tough to beat. One Fast Cat is progressing nicely for W. Ward, winning his debut over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in good style and then finishing a close third (beaten less than a length) in a strong allowance sprint at Keeneland last month. The son of Fast Anna switches to J. Rosario, shows a bullet workout since raced, and seems likely to continue his improving pattern. At 5-1 on the morning line, he is a major player. These are the two we will be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Prime Factor.
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RACE 14: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Happy Hepo

Forecast: Happy Hepo did not make it the races until June of his 3-year-old season, and after flashing excellent speed before fading to wind up a distant fourth the son of American Pharoah has taken almost a year to make it back to the post. His recent workouts at Santa Anita have been superb – he has been showing superior speed while proving best over some talented workmates - so whatever the issue he had in his debut at Los Alamitos appears to have been corrected. F. Prat taking the call (38% when he hooks up with this barn) and we highly doubt that the B. Baffert-trained colt was put on a plane to Kentucky to be given a race. At 6-1 on the morning line, he is a win play and rolling exotic single to close out a glorious afternoon of racing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:40 PM

Saturday, May 1: Churchill Full-Card AI Picks

April 30, 2021

To help you handicap Saturday's Kentucky Derby card at Churchill Downs, we ran the races through the 1/ST BET App's artificial intelligence handicapping tools. Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 1 (10:30AM ET) // ALLOWANCE

1 // #4 COOL BOBBY // 31% Win
2 // #6 SOUNION // 11% Win
3 // #3 MONEY FOR MISCHIEF // 11% Win
4 // #1A HUGE BIGLY // 10% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 2 (11:01AM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

1 // #1 CADENCIA // 20% Win
2 // #4 SURREALIST // 12% Win
3 // #2 ROBIN'S FANTASY // 9% Win
4 // #14 BIG BEE // 8% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 3 (11:31AM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

1 // #7 ALEJANDRO // 30% Win
2 // #4 CASH ROCKET // 19% Win
3 // #1 HARVARD // 9% Win
4 // #5 KOOLHAUS // 7% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 4 (12:04PM ET) // ALLOWANCE

1 // #1 INVADER // 26% Win
2 // #12 GEAR JOCKEY // 14% Win
3 // #14 SUPER SOL // 11% Win
4 // #8 FIRST PREMIO // 6% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 5 (12:36PM ET) // ALLOWANCE

1 // #5 GHAZAALY // 21% Win
2 // #2 WHO TOOK THE MONEY // 18% Win
3 // #10 SCALES OF JUSTICE // 15% Win
4 // #9 REGULAR GUY // 8% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 6 (1:14PM ET) // G2 DISTAFF TURF MILE S.

1 // #5 GOT STORMY // 31% Win
2 // #6 BLOWOUT // 20% Win
3 // #4 ZOFELLE // 16% Win
4 // #2 SHE'S GOT YOU // 10% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 7 (1:56PM ET) // G1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF S.

1 // #4 GAMINE // 33% Win
2 // #3 BELL'S THE ONE // 20% Win
3 // #5 HIBISCUS PUNCH // 17% Win
4 // #1 ESTILO TALENTOSO // 12% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 8 (2:48PM ET) // G2 PAT DAY MILE

1 // #3 JACKIE'S WARRIOR // 23% Win
2 // #6 SARRININMYDREAMS // 15% Win
3 // #8 DREAM SHAKE // 13% Win
4 // #9 SITTIN ON GO // 10% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 9 (3:40PM ET) // G2 AMERICAN TURF S.

1 // #4 ANNEX // 23% Win
2 // #13 SCARLETT SKY // 16% Win
3 // #8 BARRISTER TOM // 11% Win
4 // #10 NEXT // 9% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 10 (4:31PM ET) // G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS S.

1 // #9 WHITMORE // 25% Win
2 // #13 LEXITONIAN // 11% Win
3 // #5 TAP IT TO WIN // 10% Win
4 // #10 BANGO // 10% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 11 (5:27PM ET) // G1 TURF CLASSIC S.

1 // #COLONEL LIAM // 25% Win
2 // #6 DIGITAL AGE // 18% Win
3 // #4 IVAR // 14% Win
4 // #5 DOMESTIC SPENDING // 11% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 12 (6:57PM ET) // G1 KENTUCKY DERBY

1 // #14 ESSENTIAL QUALITY // 22% Win
2 // #9 HOT ROD CHARLIE // 16% Win
3 // #15 ROCK YOUR WORLD // 15% Win
4 // #17 HIGHLY MOTIVATED // 8% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 4 (12:04PM ET) // ALLOWANCE

1 // #1 INVADER // 26% Win
2 // #12 GEAR JOCKEY // 14% Win
3 // #14 SUPER SOL // 11% Win
4 // #8 FIRST PREMIO // 6% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 13 (7:55PM ET) // ALLOWANCE

1 // #4 PRIME FACTOR // 18% Win
2 // #8 WORA // 18% Win
3 // #7 ONE FAST CAT // 10% Win
4 // #3 TULANE TRYST // 8% Win

CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 14 (8:30PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

1 // #1 BAGBOSS // 25% Win
2 // #9 GLOBAL APPEAL // 14%
3 // #3 KING'S MISCHIEF // 12%
4 // #7 MR SIPPI // 10%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:41 PM

Mattress Mack’s 1st big bet shakes up Kentucky Derby odds

With the promise he will bet “with both fists” on Saturday, Mattress Mack flexed his first $500,000 on the Kentucky Derby. Thanks to his first big wager, undefeated Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner Essential Quality went in the twinkle of an eye from a 5-1 co-second choice to the 3-5 favorite to win Saturday’s race.

“The bet was placed at Churchill Downs,” Gallery Furniture owner Jim McIngvale told Horse Racing Nation in a Friday telephone conversation from Houston. “Someone did it for me. It’s very important to me that all the bets are placed at Churchill Downs, which helps the Kentucky Thoroughbred racing fund and Kentucky horsemen.”

It also helped the value on the other 18 horses in the Derby field, at least temporarily. Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Rock Your World had been 5-1 before McIngvale made his plunge. Afterward he was 7-1. Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Hot Rod Charlie at 9-1 was the only other horse still shorter than 20-1 after the big wager.

McIngvale said he is getting help from trusted betting experts more seasoned than him, which is saying something since he has a reputation for making multimillion-dollar wagers on big sports events. He is also getting unsolicited advice.

“My number is posted on the GalleryFurniture.com website, so I’m getting calls and advice from all around the world,” he said. Then he joked that “I’m just trying to keep track of who’s right and who’s wrong.”

Having already wired $4 million to Churchill Downs, McIngvale said he would arrive Saturday in Kentucky and, as he put it with enthusiasm, “I’m going to be betting with both hands.”

The owner of about 50 Thoroughbreds including the Breeders’ Cup-winning stallion Runhappy, McIngvale is making his bets as part of a promotion tied to the Derby. If Essential Quality wins, anyone buying a $3,000 mattress before the race will be offered a full refund or 150 percent in in-store credit.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:41 PM

Kentucky Derby Horse-by-Horse Analysis & Selections

April 29, 2021 | By Johnny D

Last week, in this space, we outlined pros and cons for each probable Kentucky Derby starter. Some has changed since then. Horses have moved in and out of the lineup and we know post positions. We’ve also had additional time to further review races, workouts, gallops, past performances, speed figs and selections from fellow analysts.

The most critical change from last week is that Caddo River was withdrawn from the Derby. He was expected to be part of the early Derby pace. With him out of the lineup, it figures to promote the chances of frontrunners, especially Rock Your World, winner of the Santa Anita Derby. More on the pace picture later.

Favorite Essential Quality is versatile and will need to work out a trip without losing too much ground. Trainer Brad Cox, obviously, would some appreciate additional early speed up front. Such an early blast could come from the Bob Baffert trained Medina Spirit. He couldn’t keep pace with Rock Your World in Arcadia but presumably will be sent more aggressively from the gate this time. Despite the fact that Medina Spirit isn’t the traditional Bob Baffert speedy Derby winner with a high cruising speed, the Hall of Fame trainer knows he and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez know their best chance to defeat Rock Your World is to outrun him early, if possible.

Big picture, for yours truly, handicapping this 147th Kentucky Derby comes down to three decisions:
1. How strong to bank on favorite Essential Quality?
2. What to do with Rock Your World?
3. Which longshots are liable to hit the exotics, if any?

Answers to those questions will be based on a variety of factors and governed by the weight of the almighty dollar. Each bankroll is different, but no player can use the entire field. When it comes to constructing Kentucky Derby exotic tickets, you gotta break some eggs! Toss some horses. Cut costs. And the only way for that to happen is for you to make some executive decisions regarding which horses you can live without.

Below is a complete Horse-by-Horse Analysis of the Kentucky Derby starters with Pro and Con comments followed by a Bottom Line assessment for each.

In conclusion, we wrapped things up with a neat bow for you in the Suggested Wager section. Hopefully, that bow is tightly wound around some valuable information. Otherwise, when the dust clears Saturday night after the 147th Kentucky Derby, we’ll have to settle for ‘losing intelligently.’ Not nearly as much fun as ‘foolishly winning.’

1. Known Agenda Pletcher/I. Ortiz 6-1
Pro: He upset Florida Derby favorite Greatest Honour and powered to a nearly three-length triumph at 9/2 odds for certain Hall-of-Fame trainer and two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher. That was his fourth one mile and one-eighth race with three wins. The Florida Derby is a sterling proving ground for KY Derby winners. In the last 15 years, six Florida Derby winners have triumphed in Louisville (including Maximum Security, who was disqualified). Three-time Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is 2-for-2 aboard Essential Quality. The colt woke up when blinkers were added in an 11-length Gulfstream allowance victory, the race before the Florida Derby. Both the allowance race and Florida Derby were one mile and one-eighth races.

Con: Florida Derby was colt’s first race with a Beyer Speed Figure over 90 at 94 and that’s a bit below what’s needed in here. Didn’t fire at all as favorite in the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis. Has been training so-so at Churchill, but he’s known as an inferior work horse. Bore out a bit in the stretch of the Florida Derby. Expect him to race in the second flight and that’s not where most recent Derby winners have come from. The rail draw isn’t the best place to start but it may not be as bad as in previous years because of a new 20 stall starting gate that provides more room to maneuver along the rail.

Bottom Line: The Pletcher/Ortiz, Jr. combination is enough to make this one a strong exotics contender and a slight win threat. A Florida Derby win and an unbeaten record going one mile and one-eighth with blinkers headline plenty to like. The Sam Davis dud is a drawback. He’s another runner in the field that resides in the ‘can’t live with ‘em, can’t live without ‘em’ camp. If the rail isn’t as big a hindrance as in the past, this colt could ride it and save ground much of the way and, perhaps, turn the post into an advantage. No jock in the world rides better than Irad Ortiz, Jr.

2. Like the King Ward/Van Dyke 50-1
Pro: Overcame trouble to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway last out. Has three wins from six starts. Beyer and Thoro-Graph figs have improved recently.

Con: Two dirt tries are not good. Best races are on synthetic surfaces and turf. While improved, overall figures are slow.

Bottom Line: Figures are improving but still far from what’s needed in here. Moving from a synthetic to dirt surface is often a challenge and no horse needs additional challenges in the Kentucky Derby. This guy already has two dirt races that are unimpressive with minor excuses. In a 20-horse field, from the two-hole, he should eat plenty of dirt and that won’t be fun. We’ll pass.

3. Brooklyn Strong Velazquez/Rispoli 50-1
Pro: He had a strong 2-year-old season with three wins in four races, including the Gr. 2 Remsen where he defeated Derby contender Known Agenda. Sick earlier this year, he got a late start and finished fifth in the Wood behind Bourbonic and Dynamic One.

Con: Gr. 2 Remsen was nice victory, but he hasn’t done anything at three and the Derby is a difficult place to move forward. He has one race (Remsen) out of five that fits well.
Bottom Line: He got a late start on his 3-year-old season with just one race. It’s asking way too much for him to be ready for his best going a mile and one-quarter against 19 foes in just his second start of 2021. Pass.

4. Keepmeinmind Diodoro/Cohen 50-1
Pro: At two, he finished less than four lengths behind Derby favorite Essential Quality twice—once in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity and then in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile. Derby contender Hot Rod Charlie split Keepmeinmind and Essential Quality in the BC Juvenile and this horse out finished Derby foe Super Stock in the Futurity. Based on those company lines, he fits. He also won the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs to close out the year.

Con: His 3-year-old season was compromised by poor weather in Arkansas and he’s never fully recovered. He was well-beaten in his only two races this year, beaten double digit lengths in the Blue Grass by Derby foes Essential Quality and Highly Motivated.

Bottom Line: For him to turn his 3-year-old form around in the blink of an eye and in the Kentucky Derby would be a real surprise. Some horses are precocious at two and just don’t mature as much at three. Seems the case here.

5. Sainthood Pletcher/Lanerie 50-1
Pro: He’s run just three times and never been worse than second, including a runner-up effort last out at Turfway Park in the Gr. 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks behind Derby foe Like the King. He ran into plenty of trouble in that race that probably cost him the victory—was stopped cold in the stretch and then re-rallied.

Con: He’s just not fast enough on speed figures. Plus, he didn’t race at two and he’s no Justify (the only horse since 1915 to have won the Kentucky Derby without starting as a 2-year-old).

Bottom Line: He’s shown ability in just three career races over two surfaces at three different tracks. With any luck at all, he could have entered this race unbeaten. Did not make his first start until Jan. 8, so no race at two. He’s got talent, the right trainer and jockey Corey Lanerie knows his way around Churchill Downs. All considered, it’s a big ask to hit the board in here.

6. O Besos Foley/Pedroza 20-1
Pro: His Beyer Speed Figures and Thoro-Graph numbers have improved with each race, always a great sign, and his last-out figures fit in here. He finished third, just two lengths behind Hot Rod Charlie and a head behind Midnight Bourbon in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby. He comes from off the pace and ought to appreciate the added distance of the Derby. He hasn’t missed a beat since his first start November 22--raced at least once every month and has thrived. His father Orb won the Kentucky Derby.

Con: He hasn’t raced since March 20, a bit longer layoff than is ideal. His bloodlines have scattered: Sire Orb has been sold to South American interests and damsire Soto has been shipped to Saudi Arabia. He did not run well at Churchill first time out in a ‘sloppy’ sprint.

Bottom Line: He’s clearly sound, tries and is playing a ‘home game’ at Churchill Downs. He’s worked well for this race and trainer Greg Foley is a Louisville native, along with Brad Cox, trainer of Essential Quality and Mandaloun. This colt made a big leap forward in his last race when he rode the rail to be a fast-closing third, just a head behind Derby foe Midnight Bourbon. Was that too much of an effort for him? Doubt he can win this race but, if you’re looking for a price horse that’s going to try to hit the superfecta, you could do worse than O Besos.

7. Mandaloun Cox/Geroux 15-1
Pro: He’s always been highly regarded—favored in all five races--and won the Gr. 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds two races back while first-time blinkers. He’s often just behind the leaders early and that will find him among a group of runners with a similar stalking style. He won a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs, so you know he likes the track. Trainer Brad Cox also has Derby favorite Essential Quality in the race.

Con: Ran a no-excuse, absolute stinker as favorite in the Louisiana Derby and horses entering the Derby off poor preps rarely win Louisville’s main event-- since 1940, horses that finished fourth or worse in their final prep have won Derby just twice. Has been away from the races since March 20 and that’s a bit longer than is ideal. His pedigree is a bit ‘speed over stamina.’ If you like him, you almost have to like Midnight Bourbon and vice-versa.

Bottom Line: He’s been working well at Churchill and looks great. His Beyer and Thoro-Graph figs were forward moving nicely before he wet the bed in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Brad Cox genuinely seems confused by the poor effort. If one is of a forgiving nature, and if the price is right, this guy easily could be used in exotics but not to win. No matter the excuse, the Kentucky Derby is not the place to attempt to ‘bounce back’ from a crushing defeat.

8. Medina Spirit Baffert/Velazquez 15-1
Pro: Hails from the Bob Baffert stable, as the trainer seeks his record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby triumph. This colt’s been a steady performer this season and never worse than second in five career starts on the tough SoCal circuit. Three defeats--two to the outstanding Life is Good and one to Kentucky Derby probable second choice Rock Your World in the SA Derby--are the only blemishes on his resume. He’s got speed and may use it to lead or force the Derby pace under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

Con: He was soundly defeated as favorite by Kentucky Derby foe Rock Your World last out in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby. Medina Spirit has made 4 starts already this year and that’s not ideal, according to J. Keeler Johnson at AmericasBestRacing.net, “Between 2005 and 2018, every Kentucky Derby winner competed in just two or three races between January and April of their 3-year-old season.” Country House, 2019 Derby winner via disqualification had 4 starts in the timeframe, as did Authentic who won the COVID delayed 2020 Derby in September. While Medina Spirit’s speed figures haven’t gone backward, they haven’t improved, either. At this time of year, sophomore runners should be getting faster. Had minor throat surgery in 2021.

Bottom Line: Caddo River’s Derby defection helps this guy’s chances of being part of what seems like a reasonable early pace. That’s good news because Medina Spirit doesn’t quit. In five races, he’s never been passed by another horse when it counts. He ran a 99 Beyer figure in his second lifetime start in January and has broken the 90 mark in each race since. The drawback with him is that he hasn’t passed a horse when it counts, either. He looks like a solid exotics player with a tiny sliver of a ‘win’ chance.

9. Hot Rod Charlie O’Neill/Prat 8-1
Pro: Went virtually wire-to-wire to win the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby and earn the Kentucky Derby’s second highest Beyer Speed Figure at 99—his previous two races were 94s. Has not been off the board in his last four starts--all on dirt and around two turns with blinkers (third by a neck was the worst finish). Was just three-quarters of a length behind eventual 2-year-old champion and Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality in BC Juvenile at 94-1 in November, when he was still learning how to run. Was in a desperate photo finish with fellow Derby starter Medina Spirit in January’s Robert B. Lewis, his first start since November. Expect him to be just behind the early leaders in the Kentucky Derby. Will be ridden by SoCal top jock Flavien Prat. Worked splendidly at Santa Anita before shipping to Kentucky.

Con: Since 1956, only two KY Derby winners had layoffs of six weeks or more between their final prep races and the Kentucky Derby—Animal Kingdom 2011 and Authentic 2020. Jockey Joel Rosario, who rode this colt to win the Louisiana Derby and eventually ended up on Rock Your World, initially chose Baffert-trained Concert Tour over this colt. That might have been more out of allegiance to the powerful Baffert stable than anything else, but it’s worth noting.

Bottom Line: This colt’s improving and, if he fires like he did in the BC Juvenile, he’s got a real chance to win. His best was six weeks ago, a bit longer of a layoff than has been most successful, although the Louisiana Derby was at a mile and three-sixteenths this year instead of one mile and one-eighth. He’s worked very well at Santa Anita since. He’s fast enough overall to have a say in here and deserves much respect for two-time Kentucky Derby trainer Doug O’Neill.

10. Midnight Bourbon Asmussen/Smith 20-1
Pro: Is very consistent—7 for 7 in the money, with two wins. His recent Beyer Speed Figures are steady and competitive—two 96s and a 93. All winter, he’s acted with the best sophs in Louisiana. Won the Gr. 3 Lecomte, was a close third in Gr. 2 Risen Star to Mandaloun and was a close second to Hot Rod Charlie in Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby. Has enough speed to be in contention from the start. He worked well at Churchill Downs the week before the Derby.

Con: Doesn’t have enough speed to make the lead and hasn’t shown that he can close with authority—he’s lost ground on the winner in the stretch of his last two races. He’s been away from the races since March 20 and that’s a bit longer than is ideal. After a bit rank and quick workout at Churchill, over a week before the Derby, he briefly got loose from handlers on the backside while bathing. The incident appears to have had no bearing on subsequent training. He’s looked great.

Bottom Line: He’s looked great at Churchill in pre-Derby gallops and drills. A saddle switch to Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith is an interesting move. Jockey Joe Talamo had ridden him to in-the-money finishes in all three Louisiana soph starts. Why the change? Probably because connections feel the colt is progressing well and they want to take their best shot in the Kentucky Derby. He’s improved steadily as a 3-year-old but needs one more step forward to be considered a strong threat in here. Based on his lack of much late punch (one more jump in the Louisiana Derby and Derby longshot O Besos would have nailed him for second) the Derby distance is a question. A win would surpise; an in-the-money finish would not.

11. Dynamic One Pletcher/J. Ortiz 20-1
Pro: He’s one of four in this race trained by certain Hall of Fame resident Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winning conditioner. He just missed winning the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial when he was gunned down in the final strides by stablemate Bourbonic. He’s started three times this year, including twice at one mile and one-eighth. His last race Thoro-Graph figure fits fairly well in here. At two, in his second start, he finished a close second to Greatest Honour, the then top 2-year-old colt in the east.

Con: The 2021 Gr. 2 Wood was the slowest renewal ever. It took this colt four starts to break maiden. He hasn’t run a Beyer Speed Figure over 90 and no horse has gone from the Wood to success in the Derby since Funny Cide in 2003.

Bottom Line: It would be easy to react to the slow Wood result by summarily dismissing any runners advancing from there to the Kentucky Derby. We’ve followed that exact path for years and the move’s usually been advantageous. This year, however, several respected analysts, including Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph, give this horse a serious chance to win the race. It would be difficult for us to reach that far, but this colt, to be ridden again by Jose Ortiz, has trained well at Churchill and has Thoro-Graph number power to be competitive at a huge number.

12. Helium Casse/Leparoux 50-1
Pro: He’s unbeaten in three starts and won the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby last out. He’s won on both synthetic and dirt. Trainer Mark Casse has recruited one of his favorite jockeys Julien Leparoux to ride this colt for the first time in the Derby. Casse also has Soup and Sandwich in the race.

Con: This colt’s been away from the races for eight weeks and, historically, that’s too long. He’s also raced just once at three and the only Derby runner to do well off that pattern is Challendon who finished second in 1937. Helium has never raced longer than one mile and one-sixteenth.
Bottom Line: Unbeaten runners should always be respected. However, this guy’s tackling too many hills in one climb for our tastes. Inexperience, layoff, distance…too much.

13. Hidden Stash Oliver/Bejarano 50-1
Pro: He’s likely to be running on at the end of the Derby. In a race with a few speed horses and plenty of ‘pressers,’ this guy will come running late. He just missed winning the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa, so he fits in graded stakes. Plus, his Beyer Speed Figures are steadily improving—from a pair of 64s in his first two starts to a 74 & 78 next, to a trio of figures in the low 80s. He also has a win and a third at Churchill Downs.

Con: In seven starts he hasn’t posted a Beyer or Thoro-Graph figure that makes him really competitive in here. True, he’s a closer. But he had dead-aim on Helium in the Tampa Bay Derby and couldn’t run him down. He sometimes doesn’t change leads in the stretch.

Bottom Line: He’s an improving sort that isn’t quite fast enough to be a major threat in here. He runs on late, so, if you want to use him in the bottom of a superfecta, OK, but even then he’s a bit of a reach. He will be a large price in here. For larger tickets only.

14. Essential Quality Cox/Saez 2-1
Pro: Unbeaten in 5 starts and the 2-year-old Champ, his versatile running style is handy in a large field. He has a win over the Churchill Downs strip. Trainer Brad Cox won 2020 Eclipse Award as best in the nation. Jockey Luis Saez seeks redemption for disqualification of Derby first-across-the-finish mount Maximum Security in 2019. Beyer Speed Figures have increased with each race, a great sign in a 3-year-old. Has the two fastest Thoro-Graph figures of any horse in the field. 49 Champion 2-year-olds have raced in the Derby with 12 wins, 11 seconds and three thirds.

Con: Hasn’t ever posted a triple digit Beyer Speed figure. Took a slight backward step in the Blue Grass, according to Thoro-Graph figures, but it remains the fastest in the race. Blue Grass winning margin was his smallest ever. Last Blue Grass winner to win Derby was Strike the Gold 1991. Since 1984, just 2 BC Juvenile winners have won the Derby (Street Sense 2006 and Nyquist 2016). Wings his left front leg outward when he runs. Poor mechanics ultimately might affect performance, especially at longer distances. He’s posted unimpressive workouts at Churchill, but insiders say, ‘that’s just him.’ Most importantly (wink, wink), according to T. D. Thornton in TDN, grays (or roans) are 0-31 in the Derby since Giacomo in 2005 (and he was 50-1!).

Bottom Line: He’s the favorite and the one to beat…but he doesn’t appear unbeatable. While he doesn’t inspire visions of the all-time greats, he hasn’t tasted defeat. His versatile running style is an advantage and, coupled with his will to win, make him a formidable but not unbeatable Derby runner. There’s little reason to think that he won’t fire a solid effort Saturday, but he can’t afford to take too much of a backward step. His edge isn’t massive.

15. Rock Your World Sadler/Rosario 5-1
Pro: Went wire-to-wire to win the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby--one of the top all-time producing Kentucky Derby prep races—and all seven of the most recent KY Derby winners set or tracked the pace from no farther back than third (that includes Maximum Security who was disqualified). The Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby was this colt’s first start on dirt after two wins on turf. In the GR. 1 Santa Anita Derby he earned the highest Beyer Speed Figure of anyone in the KY Derby field—100. Six of last 10 Kentucky Derby winners wintered in CA.

Con: Since 1882, only two horses have won the Derby without starting at age two. The drought is called the ‘Apollo Jinx’ but since Justify did it in 2018 everyone’s pretty much forgotten about it. We haven’t. This colt began his career Jan. 1, so it’s really a matter of just 24-hours between 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons. Still, the theory remains that a horse must be incredibly special to win the Kentucky Derby without first racing at two. Rock Your World has speed and should make the lead in the Derby. If he doesn’t make the lead, it will be a new experience for him taking kickback. He finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the SA Derby in more than :38 seconds. 18 of the last 23 KY Derby winners were at :38 or less coming home in final preps.

Bottom Line: When it was announced that Caddo River would pass the Kentucky Derby you could hear champagne corks popping from Arcadia to Louisville. Rock Your World’s connections have to be pleased that the early pace under the Spires figures to be quite less frenetic. The wire-to-wire winner of the Santa Anita Derby may try similar tactics Saturday. He’s bred to get the distance. The only fly in his ointment is his inexperience. Just three races lifetime and just one on the dirt. That previously has not been a recipe for Derby success, but times have changed. Have they changed that drastically? Probably not, but this guy’s too talented to completely ignore. On the other hand, if you’re believe that three lifetime races (and one on dirt) is not enough, hold your breath and leave him completely off your tickets.

16. King Fury McPeek/Hernandez 20-1
Pro: Has a great 2-year-old base with five starts in 2020. He roared past all foes over a sloppy track to win the Lexington Stakes. He’s looked great on the track Derby week. Trainer Ken McPeek, known to upset a few apple carts over the years, has been outspoken about this one’s talent. He was fortunate to get into the race because of a few defections and it could be his lucky year. He loves Churchill Downs with two wins in three starts there.

Con: He may have used up all his luck drawing into the race. The 2-year-old base is solid, but just one race at three is not a traditionally successful approach to the Kentucky Derby. He comes back fairly quickly from an April 10 Lexington score at Keeneland. His two previous Grade 1 races turned were disasters.

Bottom Line: Great base with five races in three months at two and a powerful score in the Lexington slop. He’s looked great at Churchill Derby week and has two wins in three starts. He’s going to come from off the pace and his outside draw could force him to go wide. He’s not a win candidate here, but he’s a possible lower-end exotic player at a huge price.

17. Highly Motivated Brown/Castellano 10-1
Pro: Nearly went wire-to-wire to defeat Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass but came up a neck short. It was this colt’s first try around two turns and only his second race since early November, so he could improve in the Derby. His Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures are very competitive, and he’s had just five career starts, so there could be more in the tank for patient trainer Chad Brown.

Con: Late in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass he drifted out and jumped back over to his left lead. That shifting around may have cost him the race…or not. Either way, Essential Quality was pulling clear in the final strides. How is the Derby going to be any different going one mile and one-quarter without Highly Motivated on an easy early lead? Trainer Chad Brown suggests that this colt wants to stalk instead of lead and that that style will carry him the distance.

Bottom Line: Second a neck to the Derby favorite last time out, he fits on paper. Especially when you consider that that race was his first career two-turn race. A bit of improvement puts him in the picture. He ought to be able to stalk the early pace and be in a good position to fire. There is some concern about his ability to do his best at the distance. He’s a slight win contender and a definite in-the-money player.

18. Super Stock Asmussen/Santana 30-1
Pro: Exploded to win the Arkansas Derby, a traditionally strong Derby prep race, at 12-1. Finished third, less than five lengths behind Derby favorite Essential Quality in Breeders Futurity. Has the most experience of any horse in the race with eight starts.

Con: Has just one Beyer Figure over 90 at 92. Has just one race that’s even remotely fast enough to compete in here, according to Thoro-Graph figures. Finished second to Lexington Stakes upset winner and probable Kentucky Derby also-eligible King Fury in the Street Sense at Churchill. Only other win came in a five and one-half furlong restricted race at Lone Star.

Bottom Line: Based on his previous races, we’re going to consider his Arkansas Derby triumph as a ‘king-for-a-day’ performance. It was nine Beyer points higher than anything else he’s produced in seven previous starts and four Thoro-Graph points better than his earlier work. Great story with this horse and Hall-of-Fame trainer Steve Asmussen’s family but don’t see a ‘Hollywood ending’ summoning tears in the Louisville winner’s circle.

19. Soup and Sandwich Casse/Gaffalione 30-1
Pro: Great name for colt owned by Charlotte Webber, granddaughter of founder of Campbell’s Soup company. Colt has a big stride and has two wins out of three races—a state-bred maiden at Gulfstream and a first-level allowance race at Tampa. He finished second to Known Agenda in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby last out. Trainer Mark Casse has recruited favorite rider Tyler Gaffalione to pilot.

Con: His Florida Derby effort was OK but once favorite Greatest Honour failed to show up the race was fairly empty. He was green in his lowly-rated Tampa win and didn’t change leads in the Florida Derby. He races close to the pace and he will find the early Derby scrum a bit more challenging than anything he’s ever experienced.

Bottom Line: Reports from Louisville suggest that this guy isn’t the smoothest morning mover. He’s also been headstrong in the morning. His last race was a huge performance based on Thoro-Graph figures and that effort will be difficult to repeat. His early running style should add some pace to the race before he retires toward the back of the field.

20. Bourbonic Pletcher/Carmouche 30-1
Pro: As a representative of the red-hot Todd Pletcher stable, he upended the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial at 72-1 over stablemate and fellow Kentucky Derby starter Dynamic One. It was easily the best race of his career and was his third win in just six starts.

Con: His Wood victory came in the slowest renewal ever and the only Wood winner to also win the Derby in 40 years is Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Those aren’t encouraging items. Bourbonic hasn’t cracked the 90 Beyer Speed Figure mark in six starts. He has no early speed and that’s not the best recent Derby-winning style. His Churchill Downs works haven’t been notable. He once raced for a $50k maiden claiming tag and the number 20 post position will be a challenge.

Bottom Line: Didn’t attend the Wood ‘wedding’ at 72-1 and don’t plan on making it to the funeral. Slowest Wood ever should not translate to Kentucky Derby success. We’ll pass on this one while rooting for fan-friendly jockey Kendrick Carmouche.

How the Race Will Be Run:
Early: #8 Medina Spirit is asked to show speed from the inside and #15 Rock Your World goes to the front from the outside. #19 Soup and Sandwich also has early speed and will use it to get over from the far outside but won’t be able to match the inside two. How much energy either #8 Medina Spirit or #15 Rock Your World uses to gain the lead could decide what happens later.

#1 Known Agenda should be able to leave the rail without much issue. He has no speed horses next to him for at least six spots until the trio of #7 Mandaloun, #9 Hot Rod Charlie and #10 Midnight Bourbon. #1 Known Agenda will get a comfortable spot inside and behind those second flight runners. From the outside, #17 Highly Motivated will look to find a spot alongside or just behind the second flight.

Down the Backside: How they sort out early…with either #8 Medina Spirit or #15 Rock Your World in front… will be the position they head down the backside. #19 Soup and Sandwich should be in third at this point, closely joined by #7 Mandaloun inside, #9 Hot Rod Charlie and #10 Midnight Bourbon. Riding the rail down the backside will be #1 Known Agenda. Favorite #17 Highly Motivated will either have gained position alongside or just behind the second flight trio. Jockey Saez is not known for waiting around for things to happen, so he may attempt to get a closer early position before this point. He will want to be outside of horses and in reasonable proximity to the leaders. Those racing behind the above-mentioned runners will be attempting to save as much ground as possible while hoping the boys up front are moving along at a rapid pace.

On the Turn: This is where Derby moves are made. As much as the mile and one-quarter distance and length of the Churchill stretch are discussed, jockeys and trainers know that it’s best, turning for home, to be on or near the lead. How much starch will #8 Medina Spirit and #15 Rock Your World take out of each other? Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez on the former and current superstar Joel Rosario aren’t fools. They’re also friends. They share an agent. They know not to go too fast, too early. It’s possible they could race 1-2 around the track. However, this is the Kentucky Derby and friends or no friends both riders will do their best to win. And #8 Medina Spirit’s best chance is to dog #15 Rock Your World early, force him to crack and then hold off all closers. Is #15 Rock Your World good enough to handle more early pressure than he got in the Santa Anita Derby?

The favorite will make his move toward contention on the turn, probably three or four paths wide. Expect #9 Hot Rod Charlie to be moving, too. #1 Known Agenda will be gaining on the inside under Irad Ortiz, Jr., trying to pick his way through the cavalry charge a la Calvin Borel. If they save ground on the turn to reach contention, look out in the lane.

Whatever has gone on mid-pack between #7 Mandaloun, #10 Midnight Bourbon and #17 Highly Motivated will leave some firing and some looking for a soft spot to land. Difficult to say which will be which but we’re guessing the latter pair might have more to say off the turn.

Closers will begin to move in and it will be apparent on the turn if anyone has enough kick to crack the exotics or upset the applecart. Our best guess is that the closers are not of high enough quality to upset the race, but the turn is where we will see if we are incorrect.

In the Stretch: #15 Rock Your World and #8 Medina Spirit will have given their best and will be tiring. #9 Hot Rod Charlie and #14 Essential Quality will be moving toward the lead with #17 Highly Motivated also there. #1 Known Agenda will be a threat down inside if he was able to have a clean trip. Longshot closers will be picking off tired foes through the stretch and may or may not hit the Tri or Super. Check out suggested plays for those opinions.

The Finish: #14 Essential Quality seems the most likely winner, but give legit chances to #1 Known Agenda, #9 Hot Rod Charlie and #17 Highly Motivated.

The One to Beat
#14 Essential Quality is unbeaten in five starts has run the fastest races. Those accomplishments count for something. Is he vulnerable? Yes, perhaps a bit. His last two wins were fast, and he hasn’t had much time to recover. He hasn’t wowed clockers since the Blue Grass either. We’ll lean on him in first and second place.

Ones That Might Do It
#1 Known Agenda is the Florida Derby winner and feels like a horse that trainer Todd Pletcher has figured out. The rail is a concern but jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. may find the new gate configuration less of a hindrance and might save ground throughout.

#9 Hot Rod Charlie ran a strong race at two, missing to Essential Quality by less than one length. He’s looked good since he won the Louisiana Derby, especially in two works at Santa Anita. If He needs to improve a bit but it could happen.

#17 Highly Motivated has developed beautifully for this Kentucky Derby try for multiple Eclipse Award winning trainer Chad Brown. He finished second to favored #14 Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes and that was his first try around two turns. Improvement puts him in the win photo.

Also Could Run Well
#7 Mandaloun laid an egg in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby but trainer, jockey and horse—he’s been training well—are not concerned about it. History has had an issue with poor performances leading to Derby victories, but exotics may be fine.

#8 Medina Spirit couldn’t handle Rock Your World in California, let’s see how he fares in Kentucky. Like the rest in this section, this guy may not figure to win but he’s got a solid chance for the exotics.

#10 Midnight Bourbon has been sparkling at Churchill Downs and almost on the aggressive side. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen handled the beast during a paddock schooling session and had his hands full keeping the boy on the ground. Keep an eye on him in the paddock Derby Day to make sure he doesn’t leave his race there.

Against
#15 Rock Your World is 5-1 on the morning line and attempting to clear several hurdles in one gigantic leap. We’re going to take a stand against him winning because he’s had just three lifetime races, only one on dirt. Seems like he’s spotting talented foes too much seasoning. On the other hand, he has speed, is bred for the distance and looks the part.

Exotic Bombs
#6 O Besos is an improving sort that might be able to crack the superfecta at a big number. Both his Beyer and Thoro-Graph last race figs are much better than anything else he’s posted but, if he doesn’t react, he fits in here at a big price. He worked well at Churchill.

#11 Dynamic One comes out of the slowest Wood Memorial in history and was nailed on the money. After that effort why in the world would we like his chances in here? He showed ability at two and has worked well for this. He should be more than 20-1 at post time and could hit the superfecta.

#16 King Fury has a solid 2-year-old base and a stakes win over an ‘off’ track at three just three weeks ago. He’s a long striding colt that has trained forwardly in Louisville. Trainer Ken McPeek is good at sneaking bombs into exotics in big races. The colt also has two wins in three starts at Churchill Downs.

Wagering Strategy
Below are assorted Trifecta and Superfecta wagering strategies to fit various tastes and budgets.

$2 Trifecta ($90 Total)
First: #14
Second: #1, #8, #9, #10, #17
Third: #1, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #15, #16, #17

$1 Trifecta ($135 Total)
First: #1, #9, #17
Second: #1, #8, #9, #10, #14, #17
Third: #1, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #14 #15, #16, #17

$1 Superfecta ($144 Total)
First: #14
Second: #1, #9, #17
Third: #1, #7, #8, #9, #10, #15, #17
Fourth: #1, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #15, #16, #17

$1 Superfecta ($144 Total)
First: #1, #9, #17
Second: #14
Third: #1, #7, #8, #9, #10, #15, #17
Fourth: #1, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #15, #16, #17

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 09:57 PM

Kentucky Derby field shaping up to be top-heavy

By Ron Flatter, VSiN

The rate of attrition from the Kentucky Derby is reaching a hard-to-imagine level. Rather than the usual springtime stories of horses coming up unfit, it is more about their human connections coming up uncertain.

Trainers have said their 3-year-olds might be better suited to a shorter distance or a later date. In some cases, that might actually be true. It also might be true that they want no part of Essential Quality, now best-priced in Las Vegas futures as a 3-1 favorite. It could be that horsemen are conceding that this maturing crop of 2018 foals is thin.

Concert Tour was the latest big defection. Bob Baffert decided after a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby that Gary and Mary West’s homebred by Street Sense was not training up to a level that would be ready for the prime time of Churchill Downs. The Preakness beckons for him instead.

Without Concert Tour, the Nevada money is focused on five horses: Essential Quality, Known Agenda (5-1), Rock Your World (+575), Highly Motivated (10-1) and Hot Rod Charlie (10-1). Those are fixed-odds prices, immediate action with the risk of a scratch baked into them. By the time post time arrives a little before 7 p.m. ET on May 1, that risk will be removed, and all five might be in single digits in the live parimutuels.

The only two times during the points era that at least five horses were shorter than 10-1 to start the Derby, the favorites — Orb (5-1) in 2013 and Justify (5-2) in 2018 — won by 2 ¹/₂ lengths. This is not to suggest that Essential Quality will finish exactly 2 ¹/₂ lengths in the clear in a week.

The important message actually comes from the horses left to fill that 20-horse field. They really seem like fillers, too. Consider the true quality of some of the horses that will not be in the Derby — but could have been:
Life Is Good (was 7-2)

Undefeated for Baffert, including two graded-stakes victories that had bettors and bookies making him, at times last winter, the Derby favorite. Then he suffered an injury to his hindquarters, which sidelined him until this summer and diverted later money elsewhere in the pool.
Concert Tour (was 10-1)

He was also undefeated with a pair of graded-stakes wins for Baffert. That was before this month’s disappointment at Oaklawn.
Greatest Honour (was 14-1)

Before ankle trouble forced him back to the farm for the rest of this spring, he had won three in a row at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth. A third-place finish in the Florida Derby was the last impression he made before he left the stage.
Proxy (was 100-1)

He was the runner-up in the Lecomte and the Risen Star before fourth-place finishes in the Louisiana Derby and Lexington Stakes. That winter campaign led trainer Mike Stidham to say his colt had fought too many Fair Grounds fights to think Churchill Downs would be a prudent goal.
Weyburn (was 55-1)

A 46-1 victory in the Gotham Stakes raised optimism, but his fourth-place finish in the Wood Memorial brought connections back to earth with a revised target of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 8 at Belmont.

Those five ranged from legitimate Derby contenders, including one favorite, to a reliable part of superfectas in New Orleans to a flash in the pan from New York. The difference between them and their replacements is stark. Contrast them with the last five outsiders now poised to be in Tuesday’s draw:
Sainthood (65-1)

Still just a maiden winner, this colt from the Todd Pletcher barn most recently finished second to Like The King in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway, a synthetic-track race that is hardly a bellwether for the Derby. I know, I know. Animal Kingdom went through there. No one, though, is confusing Sainthood with him.
Hidden Stash (85-1)

Hidden Stash (85-1): He is 0-for-3 in graded stakes, losing by 10 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes in a continuing regression as the preps have gotten longer.
Dream Shake (85-1)

A maiden winner in California, he has lost his two starts in graded stakes by an average of 8 ¹/₄ lengths.
O Besos (85-1)

He won twice in Fair Grounds sprints during the winter, but he lost both of his two-turn starts. Admittedly, his improvement to an in-touch third in the Louisiana Derby provides legitimate optimism.
Get Her Number (95-)

Yes, he is a Grade 1 winner, but the field in last fall’s running of the American Pharoah at Santa Anita was not top-level. He was since a nonfactor in a pair of Oaklawn preps.

With the possible exception of O Besos, these last five really have no business being in a serious conversation about who will win the Derby — and certainly not in the same breath as Essential Quality. No wonder every indication is that the money will be concentrated on a select few legitimate contenders.

Remember that when pondering a long shot, either in the final days of the futures or at post time on Derby day.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 10:01 PM

Michael Dempsey

Michael’s Free Horse Picks for Saturday May 1:

Belmont Park Race 4 Md $25,000 (2:04 ET)

No.6 Majestic Sky 8-1
No.3 Dutchman Forever 6-1
No.11 Olympique 5-1
No.12 Scotto 5-2

Majestic Sky makes his second career start here for the Kimmel barn. The gelding was sent off at 5.5-1 in his debut in a nine horse field for this tag. He was bumped hard coming out of the gate, raced mid pack and was not a threat in the stretch in a sixth place finish. The runner up and third place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts for a $25,000 tag while the winner has not raced. The gelding is by majestic City out of a Flower Alley mare that has dropped three other foals to race, all winners. This guy should move forward with a race under his belt and Kimmel is off to a solid year hitting at a 23% clip overall.

Dutchman Forever stalked the early pace and finished gamely last out to miss by just a neck in a tough beat last out in the mud for this tag. The gelding has caught off tracks in his last three outings. Two back he checked in fourth versus open $20,000 maidens. The cut back to 6 1/2 should suit him and he gets a jock upgrade from Worrie to Cancel. His best puts him in the mix here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 10:06 PM

Michael Dempsey

Kentucky Derby Trends

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs. (Photo credit: Churchill Downs).

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is almost here, and after the pandemic pushed the race to September last year we are back in action in the normal spot, the first Saturday of May.

Wagering on the Kentucky Derby is one of the most challenging races of the year, and this year looks no different. It appears we are going to have a full field of 20 three-year-olds, all going 1 ¼ miles for the first time in their young careers.

Essential Quality is the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at BUSR at odds of 3-1. The undefeated colt will be saddled by trainer Brad Cox, who will saddle a Derby starter for the time in his career. Cox will be busy in the paddock, also sending out Mandaloun and Caddo River.

With just days before we place our wagers, I crunched a few numbers in hopes of finding a few betting trends that might help us cash a few tickets:
2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Facts

After the betting favorite won the Derby six straight years from 2013 to 2018, we finally saw a couple of prices with Country House returning $132.40 in 2019 and Authentic last year paying $18.80.
While favorites have had a good run the past two decades, we have also seen three of the biggest upsets, Country House paying $132.40 in 2019, Mine That Bird returning $103.20 in 2009 and Giacomo paid $102.60 in 2005. The only upset bigger than those three was Donerail who paid $184.90 in 1913.
Since 2000 the betting favorite is 10 for 21. From 1980 to 1999 the betting favorite was 0 for 20 and only finished in the money seven times.
The highest exacta payoff in history was in 2005, Giacomo (50-1) and Closing Argument (71-1) combining for a $2 payoff of $9,814.80. The Country House (64-1)-Code of Honor (14-1) exacta in 2019 paid $3,009.60.
During the span of winning favorites from 2013 to 2018 the exacta payoffs during that time were still fairly generous—$69.60, $336.20, $30.60, $72.80, $340.00, and 981.60.
The $1 superfecta with Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex-Don’t Get Mad in 2005 paid a record $864,253.80.
In 2018 Justify became the first Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 to have not raced as a two-year-old. The record of horses in the Derby without a race at 2 since 1937 is 64-1-3-5. Among this year’s entrants that did not race as a juvenile include Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich and Sainthood.
Seven of the last 11 Derby winners had at least three starts as a two-year-old. Authentic had one start as a juvenile, Country House two.
Only two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have gone on to win the Derby. Street Sense was the first in 2007 and Nyquist was the second in 2016. This year’s favorite Essential Quality is looking to join the club.
Since Seattle Slew in 1977, we have had five undefeated horses win the Kentucky Derby — Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Nyquist (2016) and Justify (2018). Essential Quality, Helium and Rock Your World come into this year’s race undefeated.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2021, 05:36 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 1, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has 13-races ready to roll this evening with the first post coming at 7:20 EST. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10 and it will be my focus.

Last night, the drivers with the hottest hands were John De Long and Trace Tetrick with three wins each. The top trainers on the card with two pictures were Britney Diilon, Charles Stewart and Jeff Culipher.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Highmoon Sunshine (10-1)-Missed a start before racing at HoP on 4/24 and now drops. Should fit with this crew. Has some gate speed, so Roy can work a cozy trip from this post and could offer some value.
2-JB's Shooting Star (5/2)-Here is another that should relish the class relief. Tetrick should have this mare forwardly placed in the 4th start off the bench.
6-Cult Icon (2-1)-This is a fast mare who usually pays her way on smaller ovals. Ships in from Ohio and has faced better there. Not loving the morning line but did have a 152 mark here as a 3-year-old.

Race 11

6-All Wrapped Up (4-1)-Lightly raced 5-year-old had an even effort versus Open company in the 1st start after arriving from Wbsb. Has raced once since 3/29 but Roy could blast out and get a close-up seat. Best to respect at a square price.
8-Swan In Motion (5/2)-Qualified at RcR and then beat the Open 3 kind in 1st local start. Swan For All 4-year-old has banked >$403k in 23 starts at HoP and looks like a player with a sharp steer.

Race 12

2-Anthem (10-1)-Rolled the back half in 54.1 last week at this class in the 2nd local start and should be a solid price. Widger steered last time and he might be more aggressive off the gate tonight.
6-Checks On The Way (4-1)-Miami Valley invader finds a good spot and has hit the board in 11 of 13 starts at HoP with 7 wins. Tetrick drives and he knows well.
8-Grace Rocks (3-1)-Comes off an even effort in the 1st start off the bench versus straight Open company. Has won 10 of 21 at HoP and should be a threat versus these. There is not much gate speed inside, if dialed on high Putnam could get on the engine and not look back.

Race 13

2-Hedges Avenue A (12-1)-De Long takes over for Miller who steers his own. Steps-up after a gate to wire win at 36-1. This is a tougher group but much of this field is facing better. Won't be 36-1 but should offer a solid price.
6-Cheek Please (3-1)-Pulled on the backside in last and worked hard to get the lead from the 3/2 chalk who came out of the pocket and won. Did race gamely to the wire and was just nipped for 2nd place. Looking for a more efficient trip this time.
9-Mack My Kiss 9 (8-1)-Needed last start after being idle almost a month and should be tighter tonight. This post helps the price and Roy could leave to get a good seat. Best to respect, has faced better at Wbsb and the post draw gods haven't been kind.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,2,6/6,8/2,6,8/2,6,9
Total bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2021, 05:41 AM

Jon White's Kentucky Derby Selections

April 28, 2021 | By Jon White
Undefeated champion Essential Quality heads a field of 20 entered in Saturday’s 147th running of the Grade I, $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

This means barring any scratches, the track’s special 20-stall starting gate will be filled to capacity for the 1 1/4-mile classic. The first Kentucky Derby in which the 20-stall gate was used was the 2020 renewal, which Authentic won while defeating 14 foes. Prior to that, Churchill utilized a 14-stall gate and a six-stall auxiliary gate, with space between the two gates.

Getting right to it, my selections for this year’s Run for the Roses are below:

1. Essential Quality (2-1 morning-line favorite)
2. Rock Your World (5-1)
3. Known Agenda (6-1)
4. Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)

My expectation is it is going to be either Essential Quality or Rock Your World draped in the garland of roses.

Is it clever, bold or cool to pick the favorite on top? No, absolutely not. Actually, it’s rather boring.

I do get the impression that a lot of people are going to pick and bet against Essential Quality. They will go shopping for a horse at a better price. They will be looking for so-called “value.”

While Essential Quality’s odds were never going to have much appeal, his price now will be even more negatively affected due to what Jim “Mattress Mac” McIngvale has vowed to do.

McIngvale has said he plans to make a bet of at least $2 million to win on “the Derby favorite,” which is almost certainly going to be Essential Quality. McIngvale will be placing the wager as a hedge on a mattress promotion that is tied to “the Derby favorite.”

McIngvale’s Gallery Furniture stores are promising customers who buy a mattress for $3,000 or more will receive a complete refund on the purchase price, up to $5,000, if the favorite wins the Derby “on the first Saturday of May.” The promotion will also give those same customers a 150% store credit, up to $7,500, if they choose to decline the mattress refund, McIngvale has said.

The mattress promotion was made “on the Derby favorite [rather than a single horse] because the favorite has won six out of the last eight years,” Daily Racing Form’s Matt Hegarty quoted McIngvale as saying. “So we thought that was best for the customers.”

The exact size of McIngvale’s bet will be determined by the total amount of liability the company is facing from its mattress sales in the days leading up to the Derby, according to McIngvale. That liability currently is projected to be $2 million, but it could go higher.

McIngvale has made similar huge “hedge wagers” in the past. Earlier this year, he bet $3.2 million on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay won by a score of 31-9.

“He cashed the bet, but it only covered the store’s liability, so it was a wash,” Hegarty wrote.

While the Derby win pool is expected to be $35 million or more, “a $2 million win bet will obviously make a significant impact on a horse’s odds,” Hegarty wrote.

McIngvale, who is behind the bombardment of advertising for the sire Runhappy, said the Derby bet will be “by far” the largest wager he has ever placed on a horse race.

Bill Finley of the Thoroughbred Daily News noted that it’s believed that McIngvale’s bet will be the largest placed on any U.S. horse race.

Keep in mind, if Essential Quality does get the job done at relatively low odds, those who elect to put their money on someone else to win the race will not be cashing. A concept “value shoppers” sometimes just don’t get is a void mutuel ticket has absolutely no “value.”

MY FINAL KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

Back on Dec. 2, Essential Quality was No. 1 on my earliest Kentucky Derby Top 10 for Xpressbet. And it’s none other than Essential Quality who is No. 1 on my final Kentucky Derby Top 10.

Much can change in horse racing from month to month, week to week and even day to day. Charlie Whittingham was, in my opinion, the greatest trainer of all time. He used to say “horses are like strawberries. They can go bad overnight.”

With that in mind, it’s rather surprising four horses from my Top 10 on Dec. 2 made it all the way to be entered in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. My final Top 10 is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Rock Your World
3. Known Agenda
4. Hot Rod Charlie
5. Medina Spirit
6. Mandaloun
7. Highly Motivated
8. Midnight Bourbon
9. Super Stock
10. O Besos

These are the Kentucky Derby entrants who were on my Top 10 in early December: Essential Quality (who was No. 1 at that time), Highly Motivated (No. 3), Hot Rod Charlie (No. 4), Keepmeinmind (No. 5) and Mandaloun (No. 9).

These are the horses not entered Saturday who were on my earliest Top 10: Life Is Good (who was No. 2 on Dec. 2), Fire At Will (No. 6), Jackie’s Warrior (No. 7), Caddo River (No. 8) and Dr. Schivel (No. 10).

Going beyond my final Top 10, this is how I rank the remaining Kentucky Derby entrants:

11. Keepmeinmind
12. Dynamic One
13. King Fury
14. Helium
15. Soup and Sandwich
16. Sainthood
17. Bourbonic
18. Brooklyn Strong
19. Like the King
20. Hidden Stash

THE IMPORTANCE OF A CERTAIN POLE

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, which pole among those spaced at various points inside Churchill’s main track is the most important?

Well, that’s easy. It’s the pole located right at the finish line, aka the finish post. Whoever’s nose reaches that post first is the winner (unless, of course, there is a disqualification, as with Maximum Security in 2019 and Dancer’s Image in 1968).

To me, the second-most important pole is the green and white one located 220 yards up the stretch from the finish line. That’s the eighth pole, aka the furlong marker, aka the furlong pole.

Horses competing in the Kentucky Derby pass the eighth pole twice. They go by it for the first time early in the race, a furlong after the start.

It’s what happens when the horses pass the eighth pole the second time that’s extremely significant to me. It’s been proven over a long period of time that there is a high probability the eventual winner of the race almost certainly will be either first or second at the eighth pole, at which point there is one furlong left to run in the 10-furlong race.

Since I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) many years ago, I have found that it behooves one to try and figure out who appears to have the capability of being first or second with a furlong to go. That’s because 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners found themselves in what I term “the prime position to win the race” by being either first or second at that point.

This emphasis on the eighth pole was a major reason why my top Kentucky Derby pick in 2005 was Closing Argument. As I wrote for Xpressbet before that race, I thought Closing Argument had a very good chance to be first or second a furlong from the finish.

Closing Argument was virtually ignored by bettors, going off at 71-1. It turned out that Closing Argument did, in fact, have the lead a furlong from the finish. But Giacomo, a 50-1 longshot, ran down Closing Argument in the shadow of the wire. Giacomo won by a half-length. Afleet Alex finished third at odds of 9-2. The 5-2 favorite, Bellamy Road, wound up seventh in the field of 20.

Giacomo paid $102.60, $45.80 and $19.80 across the board. Closing Argument paid $70.00 to place and $24.80 to show. Afleet Alex returned $4.60 to show.

Though my top pick did not win the 2005 Kentucky Derby, no horse in the long history of the race has ever paid more for a $2 place wager than Closing Argument.

FOUR EIGHTH-POLE CANDIDATES

One of the reasons I regard Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Known Agenda and Hot Rod Charlie as major players Saturday is I see each of them as a candidate to be first or second a furlong from the finish.

Only once in Essential Quality’s five races has he not been one-two with a furlong to go. That’s when he was fourth at the eighth pole in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last Nov. 6. Essential Quality won the BC Juvenile by three-quarters of a length at odds of 7-2. He overtook Hot Rod Charlie in the last sixteenth that day. Hot Rod Charlie, who gave it a splendid try, finished second at a humongous 94-1.

Rock Your World has been in front with a furlong to in two of his three career starts.

Known Agenda probably will be racing well off the early pace Saturday. But he’s shown that he is capable of being either first or second a furlong from the finish. In his two starts since adding blinkers, not only did Known Agenda win both times, he was in front with a furlong to go on in both races.

Hot Rod Charlie has been first or second with a furlong to run in all four of his starts since having blinkers added to his equipment.

A CLOSER LOOK AT MY TOP FOUR

Why is Essential Quality my top pick? The main reason is he has not done a thing wrong so far. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt brings an unblemished record of five wins from five starts into Saturday’s race.

Has Essential Quality been dazzling? No. But it takes a special equine athlete to do what he’s done in terms of being victorious regardless of whatever type of pace he has encountered. Essential Quality has demonstrated an ability to win whether the pace is fast, moderate or slow.

Would it be better if Essential Quality had exhibited a little more of a sparkle in his two most recent workouts at Churchill for trainer Brad Cox (who is attempting to become the first Louisville native to win the city’s famed race)? Yes, that’s probably true. And perhaps after Saturday’s race has been run, Essential Quality’s less-than-snazzy Churchill drills will have been a clue as to why he tasted defeat for the first time.

There will be those taking a stand against Essential Quality primarily because they feel his two Churchill works coming up to the race left something to be desired. But taking such a dogmatically negative view of those drills just might be making a mountain out of a molehill. As recently as Tuesday, Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch, who has a keen eye when it comes to such matters, observed that Essential Quality was giving off “positive vibes” when training Tuesday. The gray colt “looked as good as he has all week, relaxed and a picture of health, while galloping a mile and a half,” Welsch wrote.

While Essential Quality is my top pick, he certainly is no slam-dunk. Heck, there’s probably no better example of an undefeated horse getting beat in the Kentucky Derby than Native Dancer in 1953. After winning his first 11 races, Native Dancer experienced early traffic trouble in the Kentucky Derby and finished second. Dark Star won by a head. It was the lone defeat in Native Dancer’s 22-race career.

How about Mister Frisky? He was my top pick in the 1990 Kentucky Derby. Mister Frisky went into the race undefeated in 16 career starts. It’s the longest unbeaten winning streak by any starter in Kentucky Derby history. Like Rock Your World, Mister Frisky won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. But Mister Frisky could finish no better than eighth in the Kentucky Derby as the 9-5 favorite.

But I do believe it matters that Essential Quality has managed to win all of his races so far. Think of some of the outstanding horses who were not undefeated before winning the Kentucky Derby, such as Secretariat (who went into the race with three losses), Affirmed (two losses), Spectacular Bid (two losses), Alysheba (nine losses), Winning Colors (one loss), Sunday Silence (two losses), Silver Charm (three losses), Street Sense (four losses), California Chrome (four losses) and American Pharoah (one loss).

While Essential Quality does not have the best Beyer Speed Figure going into Saturday’s race, it is more meaningful to me that he does own the two best Thoro-Graph numbers in the field. When it comes to Thoro-Graph, a lower number is better than a higher one. This is the opposite of Beyer Speed Figures.

Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

As I wrote for Xpressbet, I thought Greatest Honour did not run as well as the Thoro-Graph numbers indicated when he won Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes and Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes. His Thoro-Graph number was a 1 for each race. I thought the Beyers of 89 for both races were a far truer reflection of those performances by Greatest Honour. As I’ve said before, I think Beyer Speed Figures are a helpful tool. If I didn’t, I would not quote them as often as I do. But in the vast majority of cases, I give more credence to Thoro-Graph than Beyer Speed Figures.

The best Thoro-Graph number recorded by anyone in this year’s Kentucky Derby is Essential Quality’s negative 1/2 for when he won Oaklawn Park’s Grade III Southwest Stakes on a sloppy track in his first 2021 start on Feb. 27.

The second-best Thoro-Graph number posted by any of this year’s Kentucky Derby entrants is Essential Quality’s 0 when he won Keeneland’s Grade II Blue Grass Stakes by a neck on April 3.

Though Essential Quality did have a close call in the Blue Grass, it should be noted that he did travel 29 feet farther than runner-up Highly Motivated, according to Trakus.

Speaking of Highly Motivated, he owns the third-best Thoro-Graph number in this year’s Kentucky Derby field. He received a 1 1/4 for finishing second in the Blue Grass.

Known Agenda and Soup and Sandwich have the only other two Thoro-Graph numbers lower than a 2 going into this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Known Agenda’s Thoro-Graph number was a 1 1/2 for his victory in Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Florida Derby on March 27. He won that race by 2 3/4 lengths.

Soup and Sandwich finished second in the Florida Derby. He came away from that race with a 1 3/4 from the Thoro-Graph folks.

All in all, can Essential Quality become the first Blue Grass Stakes winner to capture the famed Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold took the two races 30 years ago? I think he can.

ROCK YOUR WORLD: HIGH CRUISING SPEED

Rock Your World, like Essential Quality, is undefeated going into the Kentucky Derby. He’s three for three. Whether he wins or loses Saturday, it’s clear that Rock Your World is an exceptional colt.

In Santa Anita’s Pasadena Stakes at one mile on turf Feb. 27, Rock Your World raced just off the early pace. When he was asked by the rider during the stretch run, Rock Your World’s explosive acceleration was impressive, to say the least. Not only that, after crossing the finishing line, the Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt continued on strongly, galloping out far in front.

When asked to race on dirt for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby on April 3, Rock Your World won in front-running fashion. He drew away in the stretch to prevail by 4 1/4 lengths, then again continued on strongly after the finish when galloping out far in front.

“He has a high cruising speed,” trainer John Sadler said of Rock Your World in a recent interview.

Sadler has expressed confidence that Rock Your World can carry his high cruising speed a classic distance, which is to say 1 1/4 miles. The colt’s super gallop-outs certainly have done nothing to dispel that notion.

I also think it helps Rock Your World that he’s being reunited Saturday with jockey Joel Rosario, who was aboard for the colt’s debut victory. Rosario won the Louisiana Derby on Hot Rod Charlie. Yet who is Rosario riding in the Kentucky Derby? Hot Rod Charlie? Nope. Rosario will be aboard Rock Your World. That’s one of the reasons I like Rock Your World better than Hot Rod Charlie in Saturday’s race.

Another thing I like about Rock Your World is he’s similar to Justify in a number of ways. Both did not race at 2. Both were three for three going into the Kentucky Derby. Both won the Santa Anita Derby by daylight (Justify by three lengths, Rock Your World by 4 1/4 lengths).

Justify won the Kentucky Derby while on his way to becoming the 13th horse to sweep this country’s Triple Crown.

In terms of speed figures, Rock Your World boasts the best Beyer of anyone in this year’s Kentucky Derby, a 100 in the Santa Anita Derby. His Thoro-Graph figure for that race was a 2 3/4.

Rock Your World must race farther than 1 1/8 miles for the first time Saturday. How will he do at the longer trip? Not only are his strong gallop-outs after the finish of the Pasadena Stakes and Santa Anita Derby encouraging in this regard, his sire certainly had no problem succeeding when asked to go 1 1/4 miles on dirt in Del Mar’s Grade I Pacific Classic in 2003. Candy Ride set a track record of 1:59.11 that day, a mark that still stands all these years later.

Additionally, Rock Your World’s dam, Charm the Maker, is a daughter of 2003 Kentucky Derby runner-up Empire Maker, who possessed the stamina to win the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes.

Rock Your World, Sainthood and Soup and Sandwich are the three entrants in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby who will be trying to join Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018 as the only winners of the race who did not start at 2.

But in the case of Rock Your World, he missed racing at 2 by just one day. He made his career debut at Santa Anita on Jan. 1.

Something I can’t help but wonder is will Sadler really win American racing’s most coveted prize with Rock Your World when the Santa Anita Derby winner quite possibly is not even be the best 3-year-old colt in Sadler’s barn? Sadler unleashed a $1 million auction purchase by the name of Flightline last Saturday at Santa Anita.

Flightline drew off in the lane to win a six-furlong maiden race in isolated splendor by 13 1/4 lengths in a sizzling 1:08.75. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt was credited with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

“He might have as much potential as any young horse I’ve ever trained,” Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen quoted Sadler as saying.

KNOWN AGENDA BREAKS FROM INSIDE POST

Even though Known Agenda must begin from the dreaded inside post Saturday, the Kentucky-bred Curlin colt belongs on the list of contenders.

Talk about coming into the race with a solid foundation. Known Agenda goes into the Kentucky Derby with four 1 1/8-mile races under his belt.

Granted, it’s not easy to get a good or even decent trip after breaking from the inside post in a 20-horse field. But what mitigates the rail draw to some extent is Known Agenda has a terrific rider. Irad Ortiz Jr. has been voted the Eclipse Award as outstanding jockey in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Todd Pletcher, Known Agenda’s trainer, has two Kentucky Derby wins to his credit (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017).

In addition to Known Agenda, Pletcher will be sending out Dynamic One (20-1 morning line), Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic (30-1) and Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up Sainthood (50-1).

HOT ROD CHARLIE SEEKS REVENGE

Hot Rod Charlie, as mentioned earlier, nearly pulled off a gigantic upset when leading late in the BC Juvenile. But he had to settle for second on that occasion when unable to stave off Essential Quality.

Can Hot Rod Charlie turn the tables on Essential Quality in their rematch Saturday? It is a possibility.’

It is to Hot Rod Charlie’s credit that he’s already won a race farther than 1 1/8 miles. He registered a two-length victory in the Grade II Louisiana Derby at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds on March 20 for two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill (I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016).

As for Saturday’s rematch with Essential Quality, look for Hot Rod Charlie to be somewhere between 9-2 and 9-1 this time rather than his 94-1 odds in the BC Juvenile.

SOME OTHER THOUGHTS

--Watch out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Oh, sure, Baffert is not running the brilliant Life Is Good or the talented Concert Tour. Life Is Good is on the shelf while recuperating from a left-hind ankle issue that required surgery. Concert Tour, who worked a crisp five furlongs in :47.80 at Churchill on Monday, is being prepared for the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 15 after not coming out of the Arkansas Derby to Baffert’s satisfaction. Concert Tour finished third as the 3-10 favorite in the Arkansas Derby, his first loss in four career starts.

But even though Life is Good and Concert Tour are not participating, it’s not hard for me to envision Baffert still winning the Kentucky Derby with Medina Spirit, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby as the 9-10 favorite.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times: Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018 and Authentic in 2020. American Pharoah and Justify were Triple Crown winners.

The only other trainer to win the Kentucky Derby six times is Ben Jones: Lawrin (1938), Whirlaway (1941), Pensive (1944), Citation (1948), Ponder (1949) and Hill Gail (1952).

When Baffert won last year’s Kentucky Derby, he increased his total number of victories in Triple Crown races to a record 16. The trainers with seven or more such wins are listed below:

Total (Ky. Derby, Preakness, Belmont wins) Trainer

16 (6-7-3) Bob Baffert
14 (4-6-4) D. Wayne Lukas
13 (3-4-6) “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons
11 (2-1-8) James Rowe
11 (0-7-4) R. Wyndam Walden
9 (3-2-4) Max Hirsch
9 (6-2-2) Ben Jones
8 (2-1-5) Woody Stephens
7 (0-0-7) Sam Hildreth
7 (2-4-1) Jimmy Jones

Another plus for Medina Spirit is his jockey, John Velazquez, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times: (Animal Kingdom in 2011, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Authentic in 2020).

--Along with Essential Quality, Cox trains Mandaloun. After Mandaloun finished sixth as the 13-10 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, he dropped off my Kentucky Derby Top 10. In time, as he seemed to be training well, Mandaloun returned to my Top 10. And as his training all the way up to the Kentucky Derby has continued to elicit rave reviews from Cox, Mandaloun has steadily been moving up on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list until ultimately reaching No. 6 this week.

--Because of his consistency, I will not be surprised if Midnight Bourbon finishes first, second or third Saturday. He’s going into the Kentucky Derby having never run worse than third in seven lifetime starts.

--I mentioned earlier that Closing Argument finished second at 71-1 as my top pick in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock is a grandson of Closing Argument. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains Midnight Bourbon and Super Stock.

--I consider O Besos, Keepmeinmind and Dynamic One as legit candidates to finish in the superfecta Saturday.

O Besos, who is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line, came on strongly late to finish third in the Louisiana Derby. My enthusiasm for him as a win possibility is diminished a bit, though, because of my skepticism that he has what it takes to be first or second a furlong from the finsh. But who knows? Maybe he can find a way to be first or second at that important point in the race. After all, O Besos’ sire, Orb, was able to do it. Orb was second with a furlong to go when he won the 2013 Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths.

Keepmeinmind was good enough to finish third, only two lengths behind the victorious Essential Quality, in the BC Juvenile. Keepmeinmind then won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. That he already has won a grade stakes race on the same track as the Kentucky Derby is not something to pooh-pooh.

In two starts this year, Keepmeinmind finished sixth in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes and fifth in the Blue Grass. His training regimen got messed up at Oaklawn earlier this year when a winter storm hit that track. But Keepmeinmind had a bullet four-furlong workout in :46.20 at Churchill last Friday. It was the best of 108 works at the distance that morning. Maybe that dandy drill is a sign that Keepmeinmind will give a good account of himself Saturday at a mouth-watering 50-1 on the morning line.

Dynamic One finished second in the Grade II Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3. The winner was Bourbonic, who rallied from last to win by a head in a shocker. He paid $146.50 for each $2 win wager. Dynamic One finished second at odds of 15-1.

Bourbonic’s $146.50 was the highest win mutuel in the 96-year history of the Wood Memorial, breaking the record of $129.50 Manassa Mauler paid in 1959.

Even though Dynamic One did not win the Wood, a compelling case can be made that he ran the best race. Dynamic One might be blossoming at the right time and could make some noise Saturday at a juicy price in the wagering.

THE DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM SITUATION

I alluded earlier to my Derby Strikes System. I came up with the DSS years ago to try and determine a horse’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May from both tactical and historical perspectives. The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the categories, the horse gets a strike. The eight categories are listed at the end of this column/blog/article.

A number of the categories in the DSS are associated with the Kentucky Derby being run in May. Consequently, when the race was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to the pandemic, it rendered the DSS unworkable.

The DSS is back in 2021 now that the Kentucky Derby has returned to its traditional spot on the calendar.

The vast majority (81%) of the Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973 and excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September.

The DSS can’t go any further back than 1973 because a number of the system’s categories are linked to graded races. Races in the U.S. were first graded in 1973.

Going back to 1973 and again excluding 2020 when the race was run in September, 39 out of the 48 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike, while seven have had two strikes and only one has had more than two strikes.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were:

Cannonade (1974) Categories 3 and 4
Ferdinand (1986) Categories 2 and 4
Sea Hero (1993) Categories 3 and 5
Funny Cide (2003) Categories 2 and 8
Giacomo (2015) Categories 2 and 5
Justify (2018) Categories 1 and 8
Country House (2019) Categories 2 and 3

The only Kentucky Derby winner with more than two strikes was:

Mine That Bird (2009) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

According to the DSS, the entrants Saturday who are in the group that wins the Kentucky Derby 81% of the time are, in alphabetical order:

Horse (Strikes) Category or Categories

Brooklyn Strong (1) Category 8
Essential Quality (0)
Helium (1) Category 5
Hot Rod Charlie (1) Category 4
Known Agenda (0)
Like the King (0)
Mandaloun (1) Category 4
Medina Spirit (0)
Midnight Bourbon (1) Category 4
Super Stock (1) Category 3

Those with two strikes are:

Bourbonic (2) Categories 1 and 3
Hidden Stash (2) Categories 2 and 5
Highly Motivated (2) Categories 2 and 4
Keepmeinmind (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
O Besos (2) Categories 2 and 3
Rock Your World (2) Categories 1 and 7
Sainthood (2) Categories 2 and 7
Soup and Sandwich (2) Categories 2 and 7

Those with three strikes are:

Dynamic One (3) Categories 1, 2 and 4
King Fury (3) Categories 4, 5 and 6

NUMBER OF STRIKES FOR DERBY WINNERS SINCE 1973

These are the number of strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 (again, the eight categories in the Derby Strikes System are listed at the end of this column/blog/article):

2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3*
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first, disqualified and placed 17th

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll (in the same order as last week):

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 349 Mystic Guide (30)
2. 324 Charlatan (7)
3. 246 Monomoy Girl
4. 231 Knicks Go
5. 186 Colonel Liam
6. 176 Letruska
7. 95 Gamine
8. 87 Idol
9. 72 Swiss Skydiver
10. 47 C Z Rocket

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll heading into Saturday’s Kentucky Derby (the only change in the rankings is Hot Rod Charlie and Known Agenda exchanging positions):

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 363 Essential Quality (31)
2. 282 Rock Your World (2)
3. 266 Hod Rod Charlie (1)
4. 253 Known Agenda (2)
5. 158 Highly Motivated
6. 128 Super Stock
7. 107 Medina Spirit
8. 101 Concert Tour
9. 80 Life Is Good (1)
10. 57 Midnight Bourbon

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2021, 06:46 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#3 Get on the Bus	She has been ambitiously placed through three starts, running in a Grade II on debut followed a couple Grade I tries. She gets Lasix for the comeback run while trying turf for the first time, and she might like the new footing.
#1 Little Jewel	She went sort of evenly in the debut run at Churchill last June, but it came in a race that might be a bit better than it look at first glance. Price chance.
#9 Xmas Surprise	Didn't miss by much at 48/1 in that last one, but now she's the ML favorite, and I don't really trust her to run back to that one. Iffy.
Race Summary	Get on the Bus gets on the lawn after a couple of modest tries in the last two starts of her 2yo campaign, but those were graded stakes tries -- real chance to handle maidens in her first try.

Santa Anita - Race #6

#2 El Joy	He has always been pretty competitive when racing for a tag, and he should get a decent trip from off the pace. He has a little versatility, too.
#8 Titrate	Tries two turns for the first time off the claim, and he took a really nice step forward last out when adding blinkers in the second lifetime start. Should handle the trip.
#9 Got Curly	He owns some pretty competitive running lines, but he has really just lacked a final gear in the lane. I'd want him on deeper tickets, but he'll probably find a couple of them too tough today.
Race Summary	El Joy caught a tough winner last out, but he's a good fit with this group at what might be a decent number on the board. Titrate looks like the main danger.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#6 Golden	She was no threat in a good race last time around, and while she has tables to turn in here, she still has some upside with just those three starts to her name.
#4 Closing Remarks	No doubt the one to beat after settling for second behind chalk Going Global. She gets away from that filly today and should be a handful late with these.
#1 Madone	She beat some of these in the Surfer Girl last year before proving no threat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and she's tough if she comes back in top form. Still, she's meeting some interesting players in here and probably won't offer a fair price.
Race Summary	Golden offers some price intrigue while trying to best a couple of these who beat her last out. She wasn't embarrassed that day and has more room to improve than most of these.