Sunday 5/2/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 07:41 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Pick 5 Analysis $100,000 Guaranteed Pool

May 2, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park enters its final week of the meet with a 13-race card. Due to a $23,759 carryover the Pick 5 pool is guaranteed at $100,000 and there will be a mandatory payout. My focus will be on that sequence which starts in Race 1.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-MIttnage A Trois (5-1)-Will need a trip, doesn't have much gate speed and is only 1-17 this year. But this is a suspect group and is in a spot to get a decent trip to find some live cover. Posted a win 3 back and did beat 3 from this field that day.
4-O'Sundland (5-1)-Couldn't get a worse trip today than last week when was basically parked the mile. Does have some gate speed to be forwardly placed and drops to a better spot to cash the top check.
6-Buddha Beach (7-1)-This 3-year-old was the pick of Wallis and was knocked out of last with broken equipment. Before that took a picture, and then had a few excuses in the next two tries. Should be worth a swing at the program odds.
9-Bionic (3-1)-Won last as the odds-on chalk now steps-up and loses Boyd as Ingraham steers. Double Digit Dave has awoken the last couple of weeks and if he does his part this Always B Miki three-year-old has a shot for an encore. Raced the back half in 56.4 and seems to have more to give.

Race 2

4-TT Conway (5/2)-Wallis chose this 7-year-old, who is the morning line chalk over the #8. Should be forwardly placed, can roll a quick back-half and should relish the company.
6-Invincible (4-1)-Here is another who drops and the Paver barn has won 4 of 8 starts in the last 30 days. Meittinis needs to get a good seat and then use one big move down the lane. Trip dependent 7-year-old has been trying hard.
7-Iam What I Am (9-1)-Has good speed and can come off cover to win but needs to be handled carefully behind the gate. Should offer a nice price and could surprise if minds manners.

Race 3

1-Pick Six (9/2)-Likes to get on the engine and this post draw will help chances plus faces a beatable group. If Wengerd steals a quarter it could be picture time.
3-Hard Rock Hulk (3-1)-Has the gate speed to get on the engine or a pocket ride behind #1. Wallis can work either trip into the 2nd straight win for this 4-year-old.

Race 4

5-Manceiver (5/2)-Comes off a sharp score with a 54.4 opening half on the engine and now steps-up but best to respect. Will need to be dialed on high again and almost everyone in this field is facing better.
7-ER Room (5-1)-Wallis takes over from Hennessey who usually fires this 12-year-old up to blast out and take control. Expecting a similar script to be followed and could upset if gets the lead without burning up much gas.

Race 5

1-Play To The Crowd (6-1)-Comes off a decent effort in last and was claimed. Joins the Kreiser barn again and had success for him in the past. Did win the 1st start for that stable off a claim on 4-5 and it's best to not overlook tonight.
4-Rock N Roll Rosie (8/5)-Has faced tougher fields and drops to a spot to shine. Ingraham could leave and get the point or drop into the 2-hole. Either trip could result in the 3rd win in 18 starts this year.

0.50 Pick 5

2,4,6,9/4,6,7/1,3/5,7/1,4
Total Bet=$48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 07:43 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/2/21

May 2, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lalic; 3-Win Often; 4-Freedom Lass

Forecast: Freedom Lass, away since November, has trained quite well for her return and is likely to fire a big shot off the bench. Though primarily a middle distance performer throughout her career, the M. Puype-trained filly should be well-suited by this turn back in trip. Win Often, away for 15 months, is another that appears live off a layoff. She’s run well over this course in the past and has done some good work in the a.m. for an outfit that generally does quite well with layoff runners. Lalic has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and has further improvement in her after producing a good late kick to beat maiden claimers in March with a decent number. These are tougher, but F. Prat stays aboard and will have her rolling late.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Big City Lights

Forecast: Big City Lights has trained like a good thing for his debut and hails from a barn that usually has its juveniles fit and ready first crack out of the box. The son of Mr. Big is a good-sized colt with plenty of speed, and if he breaks with his field he should be able to outrun this field. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he is a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Gypsy Blu; 6-Lavender

Forecast: Gypsy Blu drops again in class to her lowest level ever. If she has one good one left she will beat this $25,000 claiming field, but at age seven she is clearly on the downside of her career. It’s been a long time since she’s won a race, so we’ll consider the class drop reasonable and legitimate. Lavender is back sprinting where she appears to be most comfortable and a repeat of her race before last makes her the one to fear most. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that really does not offer much wagering value.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Summer Fun; 5-El Centenario

Forecast: Summer Fun, freshened since November, returns in a proper spot and appears the one to beat in this modest maiden $20,000 claiming sprint at seven furlongs. His recent workouts look pretty solid, his style suggests he’ll like the trip and the son of Smiling Tiger will get a weight break with the presence of bug girl J. Pyfer in the saddle. El Centenario has numbers that make him a threat and should produce a forward move in his third start off a layoff. This trainer/jockey combo (Wong, Cedillo) has proven to be lethal. We will include both in rolling exotic play with Summer Fun getting a slight edge on top.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Team Merchants; 5-Mohawk King; 6-Cherubic Factor

Forecast: Cherubic Factor was a visually pleasing winner breaking his maiden sprinting on turf in late March and has looked very good in the morning since. The P. Eurton-trained colt should settle into a soft stalking position outside and then have every chance to blast home when it counts. Mohawk King looks like a talented European invader based on his English form and his local workouts. He won his debut at Ascot as a two-year-old in July so we know he can fire fresh, and we’re expecting a major effort from this well-bred son of Siyouni. Team Merchants makes his sophomore debut for O’Neill and has a work tab that should have him fit and ready. The son of Nyquist graduated in smart fashion at Saratoga last summer before being stopped on, and if he returns as well as he left he will be tough to beat. We will include all three in our rolling exotics and then have an few extra tickets pressing with Cherubic Factor on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B+
Single: 8-Just Distorted

Forecast: Just Distorted finished a strong runner-up in her debut in late February to Soothsay, who came back to win the Santa Anita Oaks-G1 in her next start. The daughter of Distorted Humor was well-backed at 6/5 in that race but may have been a bit short. She doesn’t need to produce a forward move to beat this field even though she has every right to be fitter and sharper with that effort behind her, so at 8/5 on the morning line from her cozy outside draw, the J. Wong-trained filly is a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Beguiled

Forecast: This mile turf affair for fillies and mares is loaded with front speed and need-the-lead types, so let’s zero in on the best of the closers. Beguiled, always most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, gets an ideal pace scenario to compliment her style and should be along in time under top grass rider U. Rispoli. She continues to impress in her morning drills for P. D’Amato and has won over this turf course in the past. There is good wagering value at or near her morning line of 3-1 in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:53 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ole Silver; 7-Warrior’s Moon

Forecast: Warrior’s Moon, freshened since October, returns in the proper spot and has been training like she’s better now than when we last saw her. The P. Eurton-trained filly has a good stalking style and should be able to fold over and secure a decent position in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed signed on. She’s always been most effective when fairly close to the pace, so if A. Cedillo let’s her roll from the gate she can be just where she needs to be. The main question is the main track – she’s been primarily a turf runner throughout her career – so we’ll protect on our rolling exotic ticket with Ole Silver, a potential pace setter from her inside draw. The P. D’Amato-trained filly was wiped out at the start in her most recent outing last week and wasn’t persevered with, so she is wheeled back on short rest while retaining bug girl J. Pyfer. We liked her last week when she had no chance; hopefully she can avoid early trouble and show what she is capable of.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B
Single: 8-Lava Lane

Forecast: Lava Lane ran well in her debut last summer at Del Mar when finishing a willing third in a turf sprint taken by next-out winner Althea Gibson but then was stopped on and turned out. She returns in a modest state-bred filly and mare maiden sprint while showing a series of good works at Los Alamitos, so we suspect the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Unusual Heat is spot on. U. Rispoli, who was aboard her last year, rides her back and should have her along in time as the 9/5 morning line favorite and rolling exotic single.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 07:44 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Golden Gate

May 2, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Golden Gate’s Late Pick Four on Sunday is a blend of maidens that mostly have form that put them in good position for graduation, plus some more experienced claimers and allowance types that will show their speed along with some late movers turning back in distance to sprint races.

The suggested Pick 4 ticket this week amounts to $60 and canvasses races 6-9. Here’s a look at the horses used on the play:

Race 6 (6:50 p.m. ET, maidens)

EXCEED SPEED LIMIT was on the board in all three races and looks like a natural for five furlongs.

LESSONS OF AUTISM was along for second in his first Golden Gate starts after two at Santa Anita. Will need to get tied on earlier than usual.

REALLY EASY was caught late in his only start and goes from open maiden-claiming to state-bred maiden specials. Likely able to mix it up here.

MINEHUNTER is extremely rapid and could be a real hindrance to others with designs on the early lead.

TAMARANDO’S MINE will track a quick pace and might be able to pick up pieces late. Was haltered out of a maiden-claiming test by Eduardo Rich and will finish with interest.

Race 7 (7:20 p.m. ET, allowance)

APPRECIATED was claimed by Andy Mathis at Santa Anita last out and had been competitive in allowance optional claiming races. Was third on the turf two back and had a consistent late move in dirt races. Should like the company today.

JUNGLE CRY is much improved in his last two races here. Broke his maiden with a solid stretch run from just off the pace and followed with a good third. Gets Frank Alvarado today and could be moving the best when it counts the most.

Race 8 (7:50 p.m. ET, claiming)

KINCAID PARK takes a slight step down in class and is a speed threat. Could be the one to catch.

ICE OR FIRE drops in class after running third and can be in good position throughout.

WISE RIVER RAY was on the board in his last five and was second at this level last out. Will be close from the start.

KATZUMOTO turns back from a mile and has a good chance to finish full of run as he turns back in distance.

Race 9 (8:20 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

ZU ZU FLYNN drops out of a tougher race at Santa Anita and can be a factor in her first local attempt.

SWEET TOPPER was third at a higher level last out and could benefit from the addition of blinkers.

SASSY EINSTEIN steps up in class after two straight thirds and turns back from a mile. Can be rolling in the final quarter.

Golden Gate Fields Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
50-cent Late Pick 4:
6) #1 Exceed Speed Limit, #4 Lessons of Autism, #5 Really Easy, #7 Minehunter, #9 Tamarando’s Mine.
7) #2 Appreciated, #6 Jungle Cry.
8) #3 Kincaid Park, #4 Ice Or Fire, #5 Wise River Ray, #8 Katzumoto.
9) #4 Zu Zu Flynn, #5 Sweet Topper, #9 Sassy Einstein.
Golden Gate Fields Late Pick 4 (races 6-9): 1-4-5-7-9 with 2-6 with 3-4-5-8 with 4-5-9 ($60).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 07:46 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5

#6 Cherubic Factor	Took a nice step forward when getting on the grass for the first time last out, and he should get a great trip tracking the pace from this outside draw.
#1 Team Merchants	He has been off since Saratoga, but he has some appeal off the layoff while trying turf and getting Lasix for the first time. Inside draw might prove tricky unless they want to go for it early.
#4 Freedom Flyer	She is capable of better than she showed in a couple flat turf sprints earlier this season, and she can probably find a pretty nice spying spot behind a couple pace players.
Race Summary	Cherubic Factor stepped up nicely when trying turf, and the race flow flatters her style from the outside draw. She can watch everything unfold inside while keeping touch with the leaders early.

Santa Anita - Race #6

#8 Just Distorted	She flashed a little bit of ability in the debut run behind a sharp winner who scored next out in the Grade II Santa Anita Oaks. She's not going to offer a big price, but she should be tough from a good draw.
#1 Ginja	She has given away ground in the stretch call in both career starts, and she'll probably have to flash a bit of pace from the inside draw. Capable.
#4 Lady Aces	The debut run was pretty solid in a good race, but she's going to give a big jump to the top pair if she doesn't have better early pace than she showed first out.
Race Summary	Just Distorted got bet in the debut, but she caught a tough customer who now owns a Grade II win. She can press what might be a modest kind of pace for this trip.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#5 Beguiled	She should get the run of the race in a small field where she is the only one with any serious off the pace form. Settle back and let the others duke it out early.
#3 Laura's Light	She gets some class relief here in this third start off the break, and she has shown some ability to relax just a touch off the pace if necessary.
#4 Rocking Redhead	She has gotten pretty good since moving around two turns, and she might appreciate the cutback off the 10f try last time out. The race shape is a concern for this talented filly.
Race Summary	Beguiled should be able to get a great finishing trip in a spot that attracted several forward types. If an honest pace develops, she may catch a tired group in the lane.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 07:48 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5

#4 Freedom Flyer	Lost the California Oaks by a head last out at Golden Gate and returns to where he got a maiden win in January; turns back in distance and should be rallying strongly.
#1 Team Merchants	Was an easy winner at Saratoga last year and makes his first of the year after a string of good works. Moves over to the turf and should be able to show his speed.
#5 Mohawk King	Makes his first U.S. start after winning two of four in Great Britain; won his debut at Ascot and later was successful at Wolverhampton. Looks capable of a big effort here.
Race Summary	Freedom Flyer just missed going two turns and can get a good pace setup here; one to hold off.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#3 Laura's Light	Tracked a quick leader into the stretch of the G2 Royal Heroine and finished fifth; getting closer to returning to the same form that saw her win a trio of graded stakes races.
#5 Beguiled	Finished an even fourth last out and can bring the late heat from just off the pace; legit player.
#4 Rocking Redhead	Was denied a third straight win and drops out of a mile and a quarter race and can be strong on the front end.
Race Summary	Laura's Light has the class advantage over these and looks ready to start a winning streak; has been with much better and can get it done.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#1 Ole Silver	Drops out of stronger races against open company and gets in with California-breds; likely to be closer than usual early and can benefit from switching back to a mile after failing at 1 1-8 miles.
#2 Big Beauty	Was fourth vs. similar last time in what was just her third start; ran well in her first against winners and fits here.
#6 Pawnee	Was fourth in a stakes race last out and was an easy winner under these conditions two races back; likely to be on the front end and will be dangerous if she can cool it on the fractions.
Race Summary	Ole Silver has been in tough races and can get a good stalking trip inside; should have plenty of spirited activity ahead of her and can make a run.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:47 AM

Cole Faxon

May 02 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
Soccer | Inter Miami vs Nashville SC
Play on: Nashville SC -115 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Nashville SC -115

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:47 AM

Hunter Price

May 02 '21, 1:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Marlins vs Nationals
Play on: Marlins +143 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Marlins +143

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:48 AM

Sal Michaels

May 02 '21, 1:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Marlins vs Nationals
Play on: Nationals -130 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Nationals -130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:48 AM

John Ryan

May 02 '21, 1:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Tigers vs Yankees
Play on: Tigers +1½ +112 at pinnacle

Detroit vs NY Yankees
1:05 PM EST, May 2, 2021
3-UNIT Best Bet on the Detroit Tigers.
My recommendation is to utilize both the money line and the run line for this bet. I will be betting 80% of my 3-Unit Bet size on the run line and then adding 20% using the money line. The current money line is Detroit +210 and the run line +1.5 runs +100. So, for the $100-per-unit better, $240 (80% of $300) is bet on the run line and $60 is bet on the money line.
Let’s take a look at some of the scenarios involved in the results of this combination wager.
1. If Detroit pulls off the upset, both bets win producing a $240 gain from the run line bet, and a $120 gain from the $60 money line wager, for a maximum profit of $360.00.
2. If Detroit loses by 1-run exact, then the $240 run line wager wins, but the $60 money line wager loses, producing a net profit of $180.
3. If Detroit loses by two or more runs, then both bets lose for a combined loss of $300.00.
By splitting the wager on these large dogs, you will optimize the potential total profit over the course of the MLB season.
Here is a highly profitable run line angle that has earned a 93-51 record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on struggling road teams using the run line, that is scoring 3.6 or fewer runs-per-game and has a terrible bullpen sporting an ERA of 5.00 or worse for the season, and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher on the hill sporting an ERA of 4.20 or better on the season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:48 AM

Sean Murphy

May 02 '21, 1:05 PM in 1h
MLB | DET vs NYY
Play on: UNDER 8½ +100

Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.
We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. The Tigers will send Jose Urena to the mound. Command continues to be an issue as he's posted a walk percentage north of 12%, however, he has partly made up for it by inducing a ton of ground balls, having recorded a 58.6% ground ball percentage and a 12.6% fly ball percentage. It's worth noting that over the course of his seven-year big league career he has actually posted a walk percentage lower than the MLB average so there's some reason to believe he can get it sorted out. Corey Kluber will counter for New York. He had a fine spring and has been serviceable through five regular season starts but there's certainly room for improvement. Kluber has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage. He catches a break here facing a Tigers lineup that is among the weakest in the majors, entering yesterday's action hitting .188 as a team on the road this season. Kluber doesn't need to be great to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total on Sunday afternoon. Take the under (8*).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:48 AM

Totals Guru

May 02 '21, 1:10 PM in 1h
MLB | CHC vs CIN
Play on: UNDER 9 -122

Free Total Annihilator On Cubs vs Reds under 9 -122

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:49 AM

Info Plays

May 02 '21, 1:10 PM in 1h
MLB | CHC vs CIN
Play on: UNDER 9 -120

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Cubs vs Reds under 9 -120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:49 AM

Brandon Lee

May 02 '21, 1:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Cubs vs Reds
Play on: Reds -138 at pinnacle

FREE PICK - Cincinnati Reds -138
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 906
I will take my chances with the Reds as a mere -138 home favorite against the Cubs in Sunday's series finale. Chicago was able to squeak out a 3-2 win on Saturday, but don't figure to put up much a fight in this one.
Reds will have a massive edge on the mound with Tyler Mahle going for Cincinnati and Trevor Williams starting for Chicago. Mahle has dominated early on with a 1.40 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in 5 starts. Most recently limiting the Dodgers to just 1 run in 5 innings at LA.
Williams is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 5 starts. Williams has simply been a different pitcher on the road, as he owns a 2.81 ERA in 3 home starts and a 7.56 ERA in 2 road starts. Cubs are only 4-8 on the road this season, scoring a mere 3.2 runs/game. Reds are 8-6 at home scoring close to 8 runs/game. Give me Cincinnati -138!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2021, 11:49 AM

Black Widow

May 02 '21, 2:10 PM in 2h
MLB | KC vs MIN
Play on: UNDER 8½ -105

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Royals/Twins under 8½ -105