Friday 5/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 05:23 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/7/21

May 7, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Gootingscominpink

Forecast: Goodtingscominpink is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this five-runner starter optional claimer and that’s a difficult price to accept on a mare that has only one win from 16 career starts to go along with12 seconds/thirds. However, other than her apparent lack of a winning spirit, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride looks very much like a logical winner at an unplayable price in a race that is far below par for the level. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-At the Spa

Forecast: At the Spa debuts in what appears to be a modest field of juvenile fillies and based on what she has shown in the morning she seems very likely to outrun her competition. A sharp half mile gate work (47 2/5 seconds, second fastest of 42) a couple of weeks ago points her out and though the barn hasn’t won a race this year we’re expecting the daughter of Outwork to gain control early and keep on going. Listed at 2-1 on the morning line but likely to go lower on the tote, she’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Sugary; 4-Zubava

Forecast: Sugary looks pretty solid in this $25,000 claiming turf mile for fillies and mares. A three-time winner over the local lawn, she is drawn nicely inside, switches to J. J. Hernandez, and can really turn it on late when she’s on her game. A repeat of her race before last buries this group. For protection, you may want to include Zubava on a ticket or two as a back-up. The Fair Grounds invader attracts top rider F. Prat and has seven wins on her resume, though on pure speed figures she’s not up to Sugary’s level.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Phantom Dance; 3-Club Cal; 4-Onenightstandards

Forecast: This starter optional claimer drew just five entrants, three of which we could legitimately see winning, so we will pass the race and go three-deep in our rolling exotics. Phantom Dance crushed a maiden optional claiming field over this track and distance last month after strolling on the front end through easy splits in a performance that produced a career top speed figure. He catches a field without speed right back, so we are expecting similar strategy to be employed, though today he may have to go a bit quicker in the early stages. Onenightstandards, a $20,000 claim at Keeneland last month, lands F. Prat for his local debut and likely has a forward move or two in him for a clever outfit. He projects to draft into a pace pressing position and then have every chance from there. Club Cal is lightly-raced and improving and should be doing his best work from the second flight.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ultimate Hy; 2-Harper’s Gallop

Forecast: Ultimate Hy finished a good second in her debut earlier this meeting and then stepped forward nicely to graduate nicely over this course and distance in her next outing last month. There is no reason her improving pattern can’t continue today from an ideal inside draw and with U. Rispoli staying aboard. She packs a good late kick in a race that is likely to set up nicely up front for her. Harper’s Gallop, away since September and now in the L. Powell barn, has a prior win over the local lawn and has finished first or second in seven of 12 career outings. The work tab should have her fit enough off the bench and if she can shake loose early and become the controlling speed, the daughter of Suances may get very brave. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Ultimate Hay.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Starship Sky; 7-Rowangoeshollywood

Forecast: Rowangoeshollywood had a decent tune-up when a willing third in a similar low-level maiden claimer sprint in her comeback and today stretches out as the projected controlling speed in a modest main track miler that will more than likely be slowly run early. She is good enough on pure numbers to beat this field, so we’ll put the daughter of Bayern on top. Starship Sky is a 14-race maiden and certainly not one to count on, but she has hit the board in two of her last three outings and probably will be in the fray once again. Failing at 6/5 last time out vs. similar hardly inspires confidence but a little will go a long way in this weak affair.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Brickyard Ride

Forecast: Brickyard Ride went way too fast for his own good in the Kona Gold S.-G3 as the 3/5 favorite and paid the price when fading to finish a distant and weary runner-up to Cezanne last time out. This is a much easier assignment – and at a shorter, more favorable trip – so we are expecting the C. Lewis-trained colt to make amends, though probably at an unplayable price. We can use him as a rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bad Beat; 6-Bedrock; 8-Castle

Forecast: Bedrock was a clever winner at this distance over this turf course two runs back but was in too tough when a non-threatening fifth in his most recent outing. Back at his proper level today, the P. Miller-trained gelding switches to F. Prat, and with good racing luck and a little help up front projects to be a long in time. Castle, second as the favorite behind Bedrock in that common race in late February, is a two-time winner over the local lawn and could easily turn the tables on his main rival today. The son of Slew’s Tiznow should be prominent throughout. Bad Beat has plenty of speed – he may be the quickest in the field – and gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to good bug girl J. Pyfer. The son of Danza has a prior win over the course, so he is worth including on your ticket, at least as a saver.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 05:25 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 5/7/21

May 7, 2021
Every Friday thru Sunday 1/ST BET handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

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Belmont Park Race 2 - Post time: 1:31 ET
2-Prime Time Player (3-1)

Displayed promise in his debut at Fair Grounds in February when closing strongly to finish fourth but then disappointed when well-backed in his second outing while stretching out and failing to produce any type of rally. Freshened, working well for new trainer R. Moquett, backing up in trip and switching to J. Rosario, the son of Ghostzapper gets a chance to show his best form, so in a moderate maiden special weight dash we’ll give him another chance in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at or near his morning line of 3-1.

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Santa Anita Race 2 - Post: 1:34 PT
5-At the Spa (2-1)

Juvenile filly debuts in what appears to be a modest field and based on what she has shown in the morning seems very likely to outrun her competition. A sharp half mile gate work (47 2/5 seconds, second fastest of 42) a couple of weeks ago points her out, and though the barn hasn’t won a race this year we’re expecting the daughter of Outwork to gain control early and keep on going. Listed at 2-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play logical rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 05:27 AM

Horse-by-Horse Kentucky Derby Review

May 6, 2021 | By Johnny D

The 147th Kentucky Derby is in the books. Hats off to winner Medina Spirit and to his connections, including trainer Bob Baffert, who became the winningest Kentucky Derby conditioner in history. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez won his fourth Derby and second consecutive Run for the Roses at the age of 49 and cemented an already prevalent opinion that he’s riding as well as ever.

Medina Spirit’s meager beginnings struck a blow for everyone who’s ever dreamed of owning a Kentucky Derby winner. He was purchased as a yearling for just $1,000 and as a 2-year-old for $35,000, a pittance in today’s racing world. He’s proof that it can happen to you, me or our Uber driver, with some cash, a bit of luck and help from Bob Baffert and John Velazquez.

In the last few decades, what’s changed about this nearly 150-year-old race is that, since sprinters don’t qualify for entry anymore, the early pace isn’t as contentious. Riders used to be able to take hold early and save a bit for the end. Not the case as much anymore. Based on results, it appears Derby runners with designs on winning must be prominent early.

Below is a complete rundown of all Derby starters with trip notes and comments for each. The Derby’s over and we didn’t cash. But the game’s not over. Derby’s like one inning of a very long game. What we learned about each Derby horse will help us cash tickets later in the Triple Crown and throughout the remainder of the year.

#1 Known Agenda Pletcher/I. Ortiz Finished 9th 11-1
Thought this one would get a decent trip from the rail out of the new starting gate. Also, he appeared to have little speed beside him in the gate until #7 Mandaloun. That meant he wouldn’t have to be rushed out of there or else be covered by a wall of horses. He broke perfectly and jockey Irad Ortiz shook the reins and gave him a few backhanded taps with the whip to get him going. The colt did not take advantage of his early position and, before you knew it, was in 10th being maneuvered off the rail. By the first turn, he had just two horses beat. It was not the start we had hoped for. After that he just ran around the track. Perhaps, this horse had peaked in the Florida Derby? And maybe the Hallandale 3-year-old race wasn’t that deep to begin with. Anyway, a disappointing effort from this guy who seems to be an in-and-out type that will be difficult to rely upon in the future.

#2 Like the King Ward/Van Dyke Finished 12th 50-1
Didn’t give this guy much chance and he lived up to that expectation. He’s probably headed for turf or back to a synthetic surface near you. He broke well, was shuffled in between horses inside and taken back a bit. He began jumping to avoid the dirt hitting him in the face and had about four horses outrun into the first turn. Once clear of the dirt, he settled down, made a decent move to about 7th, tipped outside off the turn for the stretch run but couldn’t follow through and was passed by several closers.

#3 Brookly Strong Velazquez/Rispoli Finished: 15th 43-1
Did not give him a chance before the race and he did not disappoint. He broke slowly and was bumped solidly in the initial strides. He was ducking and diving (probably from kickback) by the wire the first time and into the turn he had four horses outrun. He raced along evenly until the stretch when he passed some horses to be 13th and then faded to 16th. He’s probably best aimed for New York-bred stakes races.

#4 Keepmeinmind Diodoro/Cohen Finished: 7th 49-1
Thought this one had a shot to hit the board. He has outstanding 2-year-old form but hasn’t followed through at three. Blinkers were removed, probably in reaction to him being too close to the early pace and flattening out in the Arkansas Derby. Unfortunately, he absolutely walked out of the gate and was last of 19 until he began to make a move on the turn. Searching for room to run, he travelled 10-wide into the stretch. He closed well to pass many foes but couldn’t get by #10 Midnight Bourbon late and was a well-beaten 7th by a neck. This was not a bad race for him as he was one of the few in the field to close ground. He could be putting it all together again and is currently headed for Preakness. Keep an eye on him in the near future.

#5 Sainthood Pletcher/Lanerie Finished: 11th 43-1
Didn’t care much for him going in. He broke Ok and then drifted right toward the space cleared by #4 Keepmeinmind’s tardy break. He bumped a bit with #3 Brooklyn Strong, righted himself and raced clear of the inside pack. He backed off a bit approaching the wire when pressured by #7 Mandaloun. Into the first turn, he had solid position on the rail in 6th. In a glorious, rail-skimming, trouble-free journey this colt and jockey Corey Lanerie made it to the stretch unscathed. Off the turn, they were outrun by #6 O Besos and through the stretch had no answer as they faded. Absolutely no excuse.

#6 O Besos Foley/Pedroza Finished: 5th 42-1
Thought he would run well and included him in our ‘Exotic Bombs’ Derby preview section. He finished a clear 5th, four and one-half lengths behind favored #14 Essential Quality. He broke well enough, gained room when #5 Sainthood shifted right a few strides out of the gate. Was squeezed a bit when #7 Mandaloun angled down toward the rail. Found the rail just behind the early leaders. Was inside and had about half the field outrun into the first turn. Maintained his mid-pack position, inside, clear, in the two-path down the backside and approaching the far turn. On the turn he moved around and by rail-runner #5 Sainthood to mount his stretch run. Under strenuous urging, he did his best in the lane but couldn’t gain on the leaders. He finished 5th, about five and one-lengths behind. A fine effort, for sure. He’s a real trier.

#7 Mandaloun Cox/Geroux Finished: 2nd 27-1
We thought he might run well and included him along with winner #8 Medina Spirit and 6th-place finisher #10 Midnight Bourbon in the ‘Also Could Run Well’ section of our Derby preview. Going in, his main drawback was a puzzling effort (or non-effort) in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer, jockey and horse seemed unfazed by the poor performance as the colt worked very well leading up to the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, he broke cleanly and jockey Geroux hustled him to establish a fine early position. Under the wire for the first time, Mandaloun was sitting fourth on the rail in a perfect spot. Down the backside, the colt followed #8 Medina Spirit, while comfortably in hand. The two Casse runners #19 Soup and Sandwich and #12 Helium also were in close attendance. Into the turn, he split a tiring #19 Soup and Sandwich and leader #8 Medina Spirit and launched his attack. He appears to have drawn even with #8 Medina Spirit at the top of the stretch but couldn’t maintain any advantage. Overall, a nice trip and a solid effort.

#8 Medina Spirit Baffert/Velazquez Finished: 1st 12-1
Sometimes it’s better to be ‘lucky’ than ‘good.’ Medina Spirit’s 2021 Kentucky Derby victory is what happens when ‘lucky’ meets ‘good’ with a dash of Baffert magic. When #15 Rock Your World was eliminated at the start of the 147th Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit took control of the race without serious pressure, responded to jockey John Velazquez’s expert handling and once again refused to be passed by anyone when it counts. It’s on to the Preakness, where he might find front-end pressure more intense and that will challenge him more than his relatively comfortable Derby flight.

#9 Hot Rod Charlie O’Neill/Pratt Finished: 3rd 6-1
We ranked this colt as one of the ones that could win this race. He didn’t disappoint. He broke cleanly and was asked a bit by jockey Flavien Pratt to show speed. Following #8 Medina Spirit and positioned just between #7 Mandaloun and #12 Helium, the colt drifted from the nine-hole down to two paths from the rail. Under the wire the first time he was comfortably positioned in fifth-place, one path off the rail. Down the backside he remained in that position, comfortably cruising along in fifth behind the leaders and just in front of a wide #14 Essential Quality. Into the turn, #14 Essential Quality began his move on the far outside and Hot Rod Charlie began his run on the inside. Neither had a straw in their paths and they continued from there into the stretch as a team. ‘Charlie, grudgingly, never let the favorite by.

#10 Midnight Bourbon Asmussen/Smith Finished: 6th 13-1
Pre-Derby opinion of this one was tempered by the fact that he had lost ground in the late stages of both of his recent races. However, we thought he might run well enough to hit the exotics. The addition of Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith seemed a positive sign from the connections. In the Derby he broke cleanly, but soon was jostled by #11 Dynamic One and #9 Hot Rod Charlie. He also was squeezed some between #12 Helium and #9 Hot Rod Charlie. All that was minor, and Smith seemed comfortable with his early position in the clear, leading the second flight of runners. On the first turn Smith permitted his mount to move to the outside about four paths wide. Down the backside he held that position in 12th while traveling wide. Into the turn, when the real running began, Midnight Bourbon gradually improved so that by the end of the turn he split horses and angled out for the drive. From there he was able to make little gain against the leaders but held closing #4 Keepmeinmind safe for 6th place. It seems as if Smith’s plan was to allow his mount to relax on his own early and to ask him to run late. He responded, but the leaders weren’t coming back to the field and he wasn’t quite good enough.

#11 Dynamic One Pletcher/J. Ortiz Finished: 18th 45-1
We listed Dynamic One as part of our ‘Exotic Bombs’ section. He was a ‘bomb’ all right, finishing ahead of only the grossly overmatched #19 Soup and Sandwich. He broke well in the Derby, bumped with #10 Midnight Bourbon, was rank and had to be wrangled off heels while in 13th place. Under the wire the first time he still was anxious to run but had settled down a bit. He entered the first turn widest of all while losing position. Approaching the far turn, he was asked to ‘go’ but responded ‘no’ and that was the end of his afternoon.

#12 Helium Casse/Leparoux Finished: 8th 38-1
Didn’t like this one’s chances going into the race. He broke well and showed speed to angle over from his outside post position. He was outrun by #8 Medina Spirit from the inside and was quick enough to establish a position between and among a trio of early leaders. By the wire first time, jockey Leparoux had eased his mount back off the leaders into third place. Two-wide into the first turn in fourth, alongside #7 Mandaloun, Helium raced in a perfect spot. Out of the final turn, Helium was unable to keep pace with #9 Hot Rod Charlie and #4 Essential Quality and they both pulled past him. In the lane, jockey Leparoux did not abuse his vanqiuished mount and settled for 8th place. This was the colt’s fourth lifetime race. He’s got speed and talent, but he’ll likely require shorter distances for his best.

#13 Hidden Stash Oliver/Bejarano Finished: 14th 39-1
Had a flawless early beginning under jockey Bejarano but had to be steadied off heels beside #3 Brooklyn Strong near the finish first time around. That left him in front of just three runners. He travelled wide into and around the first turn. Down the backside and into the far turn, Bejarano was able to move inside to the two path. Out of the turn ‘Stash briefly had to avoid a fading #19 Soup and Sandwich, but he was unable to gain ground.

#14 Essential Quality Cox/Saez Finished: 4th 3-1
We thought he was the ‘One to Beat’ in this race but that he was not invincible. Out of the Louisville gate he broke well but in a few strides was hammered by #15 Rock Your World who, in turn, had been bothered by #17 Highly Motivated. The bumping caused this one to lose both focus and early position. Jockey Saez moved his colt to the outside and gradually improved position to be sixth under the wire the first time. Around the first turn he travelled well, but about four to five paths wide. Into the far turn Saez asked this one to move and the colt responded affirmatively. They cruised to within about two lengths of the leader while about six-wide. Coming out of the turn #9 Hot Rod Charlie moved alongside the favorite and gained an advantage. Through the stretch that pair dueled for third place, Essential Quality never passing that foe and never gaining ground on the first two finishers. All things considered; he ran pretty much as advertised. A solid horse but not a superstar. Things didn’t go his way in the race and his advantage wasn’t great enough to overcome the adversity.

#15 Rock Your World Sadler/Rosario Finished: 17th 5-1
What happened to Rock Your World just after the break for the 147th Kentucky Derby affected not only him but the entire race result. A few jumps after the start, Rock Your World was molested mainly by #17 Highly Motivated and a bit by #14 Essential Quality when they created a ‘Rock Your World’ sandwich. That Rock Your World wasn’t quick enough to be up inside the pair was his fault, but the entire incident can be blamed mostly on #17 Highly Motivated. It was the end of the race for Rock Your World, who we were ‘Against’ going in because of his inexperience. The elimination of Rock Your World effectively negated the only other ‘quality speed’ horse in the race. Eventual winner #8 Medina Spirit made a comfortable lead he never relinquished. Had Rock Your World enjoyed a fair start, he definitely would have applied pace pressure to #8 Medina Spirit early, possibly enabling others to close ground. When that didn’t happen, the entire race complexion changed.

#16 King Fury McPeek/Hernandez Finished: Scratched

#17 Highly Motivated Brown/Castellano Finished: 10th 11-1
We thought this guy had a chance to win the race. Well, not only did he not win, but he could be considered the race’s villain for his part in an early collision that occurred several strides out of the gate when he sideswiped #15 Rock Your World and ended his afternoon. Following the bumping incident, Highly Motivated found a comfortable spot two off the rail in ninth under the wire the first time. Eighth down the backside, about seven lengths from the leader, Highly Motivated was moving well. Asked to advance on the turn, he moved to within about a length behind #14 Essential Quality and #9 Hot Rod Charlie as they turned into the stretch. However, from that point home he could not follow through and faded in the stretch.

#18 Super Stock Asmussen/Santana Finished: 16th 34-1
Broke cleanly, showed good speed to find a comfortable position in seventh, in the three-path, under the wire the first time—a real accomplishment from the 18 hole! He maintained a comfortable speed down the backside and into the far turn. At that point the real running began, and he didn’t quicken with the best of his foes. He just wasn’t good enough.

#19 Soup and Sandwich Casse/Gaffalione Finished: 19th 27-1
Away alertly, he moved up to chase the early pace from the outside in third. He hung with the big boys until the real running started and then hit the brakes and dropped back. Rumor is that he bled in the race.

#20 Bourbonic Pletcher/Caramouche Finished: 13th 30-1
He broke well and darted toward the inside while in the back of the pack where he had only #4 Keepmeinmind outrun under the wire the first time. He maintained that lagging position until approaching the far turn when jockey Caramouche attempted to move up along the rail but was stymied by #1 Known Agenda and #13 Hidden Stash. Bourbonic steadied briefly and dropped back to last. He then stayed on the rail and closed well enough to pass some horses late.

Conclusion
Go ahead and chisel this on my tombstone: He had ‘em all…but in the wrong order. Again.

That’s how this 147th Kentucky Derby felt to me—that we mostly were correct in our assessment of the competitors, predicted how the race would be run and who would finish in the money. Unfortunately, in our final analysis, we didn’t anticipate a scenario where #15 Rock Your World would be hampered at the start, permitting #8 Medina Spirit to enjoy an uncontested lead. Had we considered that development you can be certain #8 Medina Spirit would have appeared ‘on top’ of more than a few tickets. The question is whether or not we would have relegated favorite #14 Essential Quality to fourth? Probably not.

Ultimately, we were correct more often than we were wrong. Just not ‘correct’ enough. We ranked #14 Essential Quality as the ‘One to Beat.’ He was and he ran well. We listed #1 Known Agenda, #9 Hot Rod Charlie and #17 Highly Motivated as ‘Ones That Might Do It.’ We were incorrect on two of them that didn’t fire as well as we had predicted.

The ‘Also Could Run Well’ grouping proved an understatement as #7 Mandaloun was second, #8 Medina Spirit the winner and #10 Midnight Bourbon sixth.

We were ‘Against’ #15 Rock Your World and still believe he wouldn’t have run well even if he hadn’t been mugged coming out of the gate.

‘Exotic Bombs’ didn’t explode because closers had no impact on the race but #6 O Besos did manage fifth at 42-1. #11 Dynamic One was a big mistake and didn’t fire and King Fury scratched.

Now, we head to Pimlico for the second leg of the Triple Crown. It’s a rapid turnaround for horses and humans alike. In this space next week, we will deliver our annual horse-by-horse Preakness analysis and, hopefully, this time we’ll have ‘em all in the correct order!

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 08:48 AM

Bobby Ligs

Event: (557) Cleveland Cavaliers at (558) Dallas Mavericks
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: May 7, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +10.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 08:48 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (202533) RB Leipzig at (202534) Borussia Dortmund
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: May 8, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score - Yes & Over 2.5 (-133)
*This is a 3% premium client play for us and we're taking the Both Teams to Score - Yes & Over 2.5 goals prop between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund on Saturday over in the German Bundesliga.
Dortmund are on another level right now offensively, averaging a red-hot 3.38 xg per game at home since March 1st, and we expect another goal fest here on Saturday.
Dortmund have scored in every single home fixture this season and each of their nine wins in Signal Iduna Park has come by at least a two goal margin.
RB Leipzig are no strangers to goals either this season, and have averaged 2.5 goals per game across their last six road starts, so they should be able to get on the scoresheet again here on Saturday.
Take the Both Teams to Score - Yes & Over 2.5 prop on Saturday in what should be a highly entertaining game between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund.
PLAY: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE & OVER 2.5 -133

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 08:49 AM

Mitchell Newman

The oddsmakers look like they have finally caught up to the New Orleans Pelicans as far as just blindly playing the Pels to head Over the total, as New Orleans ventures to the City of Brotherly Love having played Under the total in their last pair of games and in 6 of their last 7 games overall.

As for Philadelphia, the 76ers enter this Friday night contest with 4 of their last 7 games having held Low.

The total was far "too tall for the call" back on April 9th when the teams met for the first time this season in the Big Easy, as they landed some 34 points Under the total. That Under puts the series numbers at 6 Unders played in the last 9 meetings between the teams.

Philadelphia comes in having played 5 of their last 6 games on Friday night Under the total and with the oddsmakers continuing to jack up the totals in the Pelicans games this season, going to call for another series meeting between New Orleans and Philadelphia to hold Under the total.

1* NEW ORLEANS-PHILADELPHIA UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 08:50 AM

Jay McNeil

My Friday comp play will be to take the points they are offering with the Minnesota Timberwolves who despite a pair of losses their last 2 games have the look of a young, hungry team that is building for next season.

Minny played New Orleans into overtime before falling by 4-points as the +3 1/2 point underdogs on Saturday. They followed with a game effort at Memphis on Wednesday losing by 4 points against the the +3 1/2 point underdogs. Still, Minnesota is still 7-6 straight up their last 13 games and have gone 6-3-1 against the spread over their last 10 games.

It should be pointed out that one of the Timberwolves wins and covers in the stretch I just mentioned was a 119-111 home win over the Miami Heat as the +7 point home underdogs!

Miami has had a revolving door of players that have been regularly missing games as they try and solidify a playoff spot, the latest being Jimmy Butler who was scratched on Tuesday because he was "sick". With Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo still missing in action and the Heat just 18-21 for the season when listed as a single-digit favorite, not so sure I want to invest in this Miami team right now.

Considering Minnesota's win in April pushed their series winning streak against Miami to 5 in a row and 7 of 10 straight up, why the heck wouldn't I be interested in grabbing the points?

Go with Minnesota as the live dog on Friday.

3* MINNESOTA

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 08:51 AM

Trace Adams

Boston is fresh off a home series against Detroit that saw a whole slew of runs come across home plate as ALL 3 of the games played landed Over the total to put the Red Sox on a 4-1 Over run for their last 5 games played.

Baltimore enjoyed their flight back from the pacific northwest celebrating southpaw John Means' no-no against Seattle as the Orioles saw ALL 3 of their games against the Mariners hold Under the total to by the O's on an 8-2 Under run for their last 10 games as they come back home to open this series against their division rivals.

These teams have already faced one another 6 times this year and after a pair of Unders in early April to open the season, the last 4 series showdowns have ALL played Over the total. That includes a 7-3 win by Boston at Camden Yards back on April 8th that was started by Eduardo Rodriguez and Matt Harvey who also happen to be starting tonight's series opener at the Inner Harbor.

The way the Sox have been slugging the ball, doubtful Matt Harvey gets through the lineup more than once before running into traffic.

4* BOSTOBN-BALTIMORE OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 01:49 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

Sam Houston Race Park - Race 2	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 2-3) Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Trial • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 90 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:37P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT .....124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PETES EXPRESS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PERSONAL KIDDY UP: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. LEVERAJ: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
7	PETES EXPRESS	8/1	7/1
3	PERSONAL KIDDY UP	15/1	8/1
8	LEVERAJ	9/2	8/1
9	MR DE CAPI	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	PETES EXPRESS	7	8/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: JUSTISS (12/1) [Jockey: Espinosa Pedro C - Trainer: Bard Leon], JEES BABY (6/1) [Jockey: Aguilar Jacobo Adan - Trainer: Poteet Don R], PERSONAL KIDDY UP (15/1) [Jockey: Garza-Cruz Ricardo - Trainer: Almanza Rolando], JUST CALL

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 01:51 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

Evangeline Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 7:11P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING ALLOWED 3 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. MAW MAW'S SOPHIA is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAW MAW'S SOPHIA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. STELLA'S SURPRISE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LADY RAD: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designat ion or an "L" designation. A. K. A. GRAMS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position.
6	MAW MAW'S SOPHIA	9/5	7/2
4	STELLA'S SURPRISE	5/1	9/2
3	LADY RAD	10/1	7/1
1	A. K. A. GRAMS	5/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	A. K. A. GRAMS	1	5/2	Front-runner	53	52	64.0	45.4	38.4
4	STELLA'S SURPRISE	4	5/1	Front-runner	69	67	62.2	57.0	51.5
6	MAW MAW'S SOPHIA	6	9/5	Stalker	69	77	45.8	60.4	54.9
2	BREEZIN BYE YOU	2	8/1	Trailer	65	57	29.5	31.2	20.7
3	LADY RAD	3	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	66	60	29.4	61.6	55.6
5	MOLLY GOLIGHTLY	5	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	65	35.6	55.4	48.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 01:52 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

05/07/21, BEL, Race 1, 1.00 ET
05/07/21,BEL,1,1M [Turf] 1:31:01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $85,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $45,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Other Than Claiming Or Starter At A Mile Or Over In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. One Such Race In 2021 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $45,000 (Allowance Horses Preferred)(1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at One Mile on the Main Track.) (Rail at 27 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Timeless Journey	7/2	Rosario J	Clement Christophe	FC	442	33.94	1.25/$1
099.0072	7	Wasp	4/1	Franco M	Pletcher Todd A.	TE	442	33.94	1.25/$1
097.9719	1	Giacosa	2/1	Saez L	Bond H. James		442	33.94	1.25/$1
095.4474	8	Dancing Kiki	20/1	Lezcano J	Ryerson James T.		442	33.94	1.25/$1
094.6415	4	Courageous Girl	10/1	Rider TBA	Donk David G.		442	33.94	1.25/$1
094.5975	3	Pecatonica	5/1	Ortiz J L	Bush Thomas M.	S	442	33.94	1.25/$1
093.2623	5	Kreesie	3/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Atras Rob	J	442	33.94	1.25/$1
092.9847	2	Two Cent Tootsie	15/1	Hernandez B	Albertrani Thomas	WL	442	33.94	1.25/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 38.10, ROI 1.61/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.9928
[Category]Condition
[All Categories] Not Second Start
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Wasp	4/1	Franco M	Pletcher Todd A.	TE	97	40.21	1.77/$1
095.1134	2	Two Cent Tootsie	15/1	Hernandez B	Albertrani Thomas	WL	120	40.83	1.31/$1
094.4407	5	Kreesie	3/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Atras Rob	J	120	40.83	1.31/$1
094.3985	1	Giacosa	2/1	Saez L	Bond H. James		120	40.83	1.31/$1
094.3505	6	Timeless Journey	7/2	Rosario J	Clement Christophe	C	120	40.83	1.31/$1
093.9693	4	Courageous Girl	10/1	Rider TBA	Donk David G.		120	40.83	1.31/$1
093.4145	8	Dancing Kiki	20/1	Lezcano J	Ryerson James T.		120	40.83	1.31/$1
092.9606	3	Pecatonica	5/1	Ortiz J L	Bush Thomas M.	S	120	40.83	1.31/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 32.18, ROI 0.95/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -4.8866
[Category]Condition
[All Dirt] Best Trainer

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 01:52 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, TRIAL OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 SPOT ON 15/1
# 4 PEKA 10/1
# 6 SUGAR AND SASS 8/1

My pick here is SPOT ON and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Lucarelli has this mare racing well and is a competitive selection based on the quite good speed figures earned in sprint races as of late. Reason to like this mare as she has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Has a strong shot in this competition if you like back class. PEKA - Could best this group based on the speed figure - 81 - of her last contest. Is hard not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been strong - 76 avg - of late. SUGAR AND SASS - Displays strong Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses in this race. The drastic drop in competition can only help out this one today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 01:53 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horsemen's Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BUTYOUCALLEDME 5/2
# 2 DARLING GIRL 10/1
# 5 DONNAS FINAL WORD 7/2

BUTYOUCALLEDME is the top bet in this race. This racer has a fantastic win percent in dirt sprints. Have to sense that this horse will make a good showing again this time out. DARLING GIRL - This racer must be bet on at the expected big odds. Could best this field based on the speed rating - 62 - of her last outing. DONNAS FINAL WORD - Will most likely compete soundly in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group of animals. Garnered a sound speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-07-2021, 01:54 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,400 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#6 BLAZING MISS JOJO (ML=4/1)
#7 JILL BABE (ML=5/2)

BLAZING MISS JOJO - Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier bunch than last out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speed freak facing sluggish sorts today. This animal is at the top in earnings per race. She looks nice in today's race. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. JILL BABE - Was in a Maiden Special race at Keeneland last time around the track. That clash had an Equibase class figure of 83 and she is moving down in this event. A certain strong challenger. The rider and conditioner combination have a profitable return on investment when they work together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 DEVIL'S ADVOCATE (ML=7/2), #3 RUTABAGA (ML=5/1), #4 CRUZIN TATUM (ML=6/1),

DEVIL'S ADVOCATE - Didn't finish in the money on February 26th at Turfway Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. RUTABAGA - I'm foretelling a lackluster go out of her this time. CRUZIN TATUM - This pony will in all probability be pulling up the rear as this bunch crosses the finish line.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 BLAZING MISS JOJO on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	6 with 7 with [3,5,8] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Friday 5/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 5/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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