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Larry Ness 9 Star Super Bowl Selection
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Brandon Lang
Super Bowl Winner ... 50 Dime Arizona Cardinals
10 Dime Money Line Bonus Arizona Cardinals
FREE - Under Cardinals/Steelers (See daily video for your analysis on this total)
NOTE: First and foremost, if you're purchasing the pick via the One Day Discount Package, please be sure to print this out because once the package expires, you will not be able to see the plays and analysis. Either write the plays down or print the plays out for your records.
I've often been asked so many things about never losing this game.
How have I done it? Do I have a system? What has been the biggest key to hitting the Super Bowl every year of my career?
Simply put, the one key is to look at the matchup. How do the two teams match up with one another? Forget the season and look at the match up of this game.
You can take what happened in the regular season and playoffs to help gage where a team is at and what their weaknesses are but for the most part, it's a game all to itself, especially with 2 weeks to prepare.
That is the biggest key of all.
Another key is if I feel the underdog has a shot to win the game outright, I roll with the dog because of the 42 Super bowls played, with the 3 that feel right on the number withstanding, the straight up winner has covered 34 of the 39.
I have looked at this game from every angle possible and in my opinion I keep coming back to the same thing. Which ever QB plays better and does not turn the ball over, his team will win.
For my money today, it's Kurt Warner and not Ben Roethlisberger, who I feel is due to implode. I have seen enough from Warner in these playoffs and the past 1 1/2 years in this Cardinal offense to jump on his bandwagon.
He has faced this Steelers defense. He faced a good Ravens defense on the road last year. He is as comfortable as I have ever seen him. He is better now than he ever was. Experience will do that for you.
So enjoy the game folks and what I am confident will be Super bowl winner #17 in a row.
50 Dime Cardinals - Don't be surprised to see the Cardinals shock the world and win this game outright. That's why we're playing a bonus on the money line, because I do believe there's a chance the Redbirds win this game.
I told you the same thing last year with the 11 point underdog Giants and they didn't disappoint me and I am confident in going for my 17th straight Super Bowl winner Arizona won't as well.
People often asked me about the Giants call. They asked me if I could name one thing that got me on the Giants what it was. My answer was always the same.
I just couldn't see the Patriots blowing out the Giants and quite frankly, I just don't see the Steelers blowing out the Cardinals in this game either.
In picking the Giants I said if they didn't lose the turnover battle, they would give themselves a shot to win the game. They did just that as both the Patriots and G-men turned it over once.
In their last 11 games, if the Arizona Cardinals have a turnover advantage, they are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS. When they don't, try 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS.
When they met in week 4 last year in Arizona, the Cardinals as 6 point home dogs upset the Steelers 21-14 with each team turning it over twice.
Hines Ward missed the game for the Steelers while Boldin missed it for Arizona and Polamalu missed the 2nd half but most of the main players who did play will be on the field Sunday give or take a few from both sides.
I talked on radio about so many intangibles involved in this game.
It starts with Whisenhunt and his knowledge of everything Pittsburgh does defensively since defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau is one of his best friends. Can you imagine the X's and O's talk they had golfing all the time.
Some will argue the same goes for LeBeau and his knowledge of what Whisenhunt likes to do offensively but trust me folks, Whisenhunt didn't have the weapons in Pittsburgh he has at his disposal now.
He also didn't have Todd Haley, as hot an offensive coordinator the playoffs has ever seen, considering the Cardinals are the first NFL team in history to put up 30 points in 3 straight playoff games.
And Whisenhunt knows Ben Roethlisberger better than any coach in the NFL, even better than his own head coach Mike Tomlin.
After the Steelers drafted Ben, it was Whisenhunt, then the offensive coordinator who taught Ben everything about the offense, molded him and along with that knows his every weakness as an NFL QB.
Whisenhunt can outsmart Big Ben and not the other way around.
Or how about Russ Grimm, offensive line coach in Pittsburgh and now assistant head coach in Arizona. How familiar is he with the defensive line and blitzing schemes of Lebeau his offensive line will see Sunday.
Oh, and by the way, an Arizona offensive line that has started all 19 games together this year, unprecedented for an NFL season.
Lastly, six other Cardinal coaches have ties to the Steelers, so much so people have actually called Arizona the "Steelers" of the west. Information like that is priceless in a game you have two weeks to prepare for.
Yes, the Steelers have the best defense in the NFL across the board but they haven't faced an offense like this all year long and especially an offense peaking at exactly the right time with a QB playing the best ball of his entire career.
I mean, think about this. The Eagles came into Arizona with the 3rd best defense in the NFL and perhaps playing their best ball of the entire year and the Cards shredded them the entire first half.
Did they ease up in the 2nd half? You bet they did but who could blame them up 24-6 but when the final bell sounded, Warner led them on the game winning drive as cool and as calm as could be.
Lastly, the Steelers offense has been inconsistent all year and it's an offense the Cardinals match up very well against defensively.
This is a much underrated defensive line that can come after the one QB whose offensive line has allowed him to be sacked more than any other QB in the NFL since 2004. They will get at least 3 sacks on Sunday.
Where I feel people are missing this game in going with Pittsburgh is thinking the Steelers defensively are just going to shut down Arizona. People, this is not happening on a neutral field and 2 weeks to prepare.
They also think the Steelers offense, which as mentioned above has been as inconsistent all year long, is going to just roll over Arizona.
You know the offense I am talking about. 10 points at Cleveland. 6 points at Philly. 14 at home to the Giants. 11 at home to the Chargers. 14 at Tennessee and 13 at home to Dallas, (the other 7 came on the pick 6).
The Steelers offense has been the benefit of a defense that for the most part has handed them turnovers and great field position.
You also can't discount what Arizona did defensively in the 2nd half of the Falcons game, the entire Carolina game and the first half of the Eagles game. A defensive line that has been together for the last 4 years.
Finally, the Cardinals will not be intimidated by anything Pittsburgh does on Sunday. This is a confident football team, led by confident coaches who not only believe they can win, and knows they can win.
Of all the teams the Steelers could have faced here in the Super bowl, they are facing the one team that not only knows them but matches up well with them across the board.
And in a game like this, more evenly matched than people think your value sides with the underdog and a QB who with a win today, punches his ticket to the Hall of fame.
This game will go down to the wire. perhaps the last team with the ball gets it done and maybe even OT but in my opinion, there will be no blowout in what I feel will be a field goal game.
My 17th straight Super bowl winner is Arizona plus the points.
BONUS PROP PLAYS - These are to be played for fun, these are not rated.
1) National Anthem OVER 1:54
2) Coin Toss - Tails
3) Total Receiving Yards Hines Ward UNDER 73 1/2
4) Total Receptions Anquan Boldin OVER 5 1/2
5) Total Receptions Steve Breaston OVER 3 1/2
6) First player to score - Steve Breaston 15/1
7) Game MVP - Kurt Warner
8) Cardinals Over 2-1/2 Sacks -
Re: Super Bowl Sunday
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. These teams both saw their games last week finish above the number. Arizona and Philadelphia combined for 57. Pittsburgh and Baltimore combined for 37. Those results have many expecting a shootout and in turn have helped to keep the Super Bowl total generously high. The fact that both Conference Championship games finished above the total should not bother us. Last year's Super Bowl finished below the total but it doesn't apply, as the 'over' had gone 1-1 in the Conference Championship Round. However, the previous two years both saw the 'over' go a combined 4-0 in the Conference Championship Rd and yet in each case the Super Bowl finished UNDER the total. Two years ago, the Colts and Bears saw their two championship games finish with 72 and 53 points respectively, yet the teams combined for 46 in the Super Bowl, sneaking below the total of 47. The previous season, the Steelers and Seahawks both saw their Conference Championship games finish above the total. Yet, the teams combined for only 31 points (21-10 Pittsburgh) when matched up against each other in the big game. It can also go the other way. The last time that we saw a Super Bowl finished 'over' the total was in 2004 in the Patriots/Panthers game. In that contest, both teams had played low-scoring games which went 'under' in the Championship game. Yet, despite a slow start, their Super Bowl meeting finished well above the number. Looking back at the Steelers' last Super Bowl appearance, we find that they also faced an NFC West team which threw a lot of passes. In fact, Seattle threw the ball a whopping 49 times. Yet, despite the high number of passes, the Seahawks still only managed 10 points. Although I do expect them to mix in more running plays than many are expecting, like Seattle, the Cardinals will also throw the ball fairly regularly. Like the Seahawks learned, I expect that the Cardinals will also find that passing against the Pittsburgh defense isn't as easy as they might think, or at least that reaching the end zone won't be easy. While we know that the Steelers defense tends to dominate, the Cardinals have also proven to be be much better on that side of the ball than most people believed them to be capable of. These teams faced each other last season. That game had a halftime score of 7-0 and was still tied 7-7 in the fourth quarter, before eventually finishing with a final of 21-14. Note that the lone score in the third quarter was a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown. Willie Parker came in having run for more than 100 yards in four straight games, yet the Cards' defense rose to the occasion and limited him to a mere 37 yards on 18 carries. Additionally, Rothlisberger entered that game having only been sacked four times in his previous three games. Yet, Arizona sacked him four times in that game alone. Big Ben would finish 17 of 32 with two interceptions. Including that result, the UNDER is 7-5 the last 12 times that the Steelers have faced an opponent from the NFC, including a perfect 4-0 this season. Three of those games came against teams (Giants, Cowboys, Eagles) which ranked above the league average in terms of total points scored, while the other was against Washington. Yet, those four games finished with combined scores of 33, 29, 35 and 21 points. While most are expecting a high-scoring affair, I look for the defenses to be better than expected and for the final combined score to stay below the generous number. *Playoff TOYComment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
BIG AL
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Duke. Earlier this week, Wake Forest won a huge game over the then-No. 1-ranked Blue Devils, 70-68 on a buzzer beater. But big games like that take a toll not only on the winner (Wake Forest suffered a letdown yesterday, and lost to Georgia Tech), but also on the loser, as it's often tough to bounce back from emotional defeats. Indeed, Duke is a miserable 12-33 ATS off a loss of 7 points or less since Feb. 4, 1995. And this is a great spot to go against a team suffering a hangover, as Duke is playing a mediocre Virginia team, with a game against #12 Clemson up next, and is laying over 20 points. Although Virginia has dropped four straight games, and five of six, the Cavaliers have a big "rest advantage" this afternoon in that they have been off for eight days. Junior guard Calvin Baker said that the rest will "give us a chance to clear our minds. No one has given up hope." Finally, off its loss, Duke falls into a negative 26-85 ATS system of mine that goes against .750 (or better) favorites of -12 or more points which are off a loss, and matched up against a foe off back-to-back losses. Look for Virginia to sneak within the number this afternoon. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL SUPER PLAY
At 6:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Pittsburgh/Arizona game. Two weeks ago, we played both conference championship games 'over' the total and were rewarded with a 23-14 Pittsburgh victory and a 32-25 Arizona triumph. But off those two 'overs,' I'm going to reverse gears and look for a low-scoring game here. I'm well aware that Arizona has a high-octane offense, but the Cards have yet to play a defense as good as Pittsburgh's, and only one team this season has scored more than 24 points vs. Pitt, and that was Tennessee (in a 31-14 Titans win). But the Steelers turned the ball over four times that afternoon against a strong Tennessee defense, and I don't see Arizona's defense forcing that many turnovers. For the season, Pitt only committed three or more turnovers in three games (and was 0-3 in those games). But the Steelers were 14-1 in games where they had two or less turnovers, so that's really the key here. And the three teams which forced the Steelers into all those turnovers were the Giants, Titans and Eagles -- all with much better defenses than Arizona. But Pittsburgh only surrendered 12.9 ppg outside of those three games, and really came on toward the end of the season when it gave up 14 points or less in seven of its last nine games. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh is the better team than Arizona, and will most likely dictate the tempo of this game, and turn it into a "field position" game like we saw two weeks ago vs. Baltimore. Indeed, this Steeler defense is the best to make a Super Bowl since Baltimore's led it to the 2000 championship. On offense, I look for the Steelers to pound the ball early with RBs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, and mix in some medium-range passing routes. The Steelers' offensive line has not impressed me this season, and the Cards' defense will be able to sack QB Ben Roethlisberger (Arizona has had seven sacks in its three playoff games), which will limit Pittsburgh's offensive output. But Pitt should play most of this game in the lead, and should the Steelers get out to a 14-point advantage, I would expect coach Mike Tomlin to make ample use of his running game, which would take time off the clock faster, and increase the chances that it goes 'under' the total. With the line higher than any of the last 22 Steeler games, we'll take advantage of the "inflation" and play the Super Bowl 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
DR BOB
bobs Writeups
2 Star Selection
**Virginia (+23) over DUKE
11:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 867
Duke is coming off a hard faught 2 point loss at Wake Forest and it will be tough for the Blue Devils to bring their "A" Game today after that battle. Duke is only 24-37-1 ATS in conference games after a loss and the Blue Devils apply to a very negative 1-37 ATS subset of a 15-65-1 ATS big home favorite situatoin that is based on their loss to Wake Forest. My ratings favor Duke by 23 1/2 points, but the situation is good enough to give up a bit of line value. I'll take Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at +23 points or more and for 3-Stars at +24 or more.
3 Star Selection
***CREIGHTON (-10 1/2) over Missouri State
12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 872
Missouri State is now 4-16 ATS on the road the last two seasons and the Bears are just 2-13 ATS as an underdog in conference play after losing at Southern Illinois on Thursday. Creighton has failed to cover the spread in their last two games, but the Bluejays have covered the spread in their last 16 conference games following consecutive spread losses and they apply to a solid 208-104-9 ATS situation. The possible absence of Creighton guard P'Allen Stinnett doesn't concern me much considering he shoots just 43% from the floor and has a horrible assist to turnover ratio. The Blue Jays played better than average in the one game earlier this seson that he missed, so I see no reason to adjust for his questionable status. My ratings favor Creighton by 12 points and I'll take Creighton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12 points.
2 Star Selection
**MONTANA STATE (+5 1/2) over Portland State
01:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 878
I won going against Portland State as a road favorite at Montana on Thursday and the situation is against the Vikings again today.Montana State applies to a 25-4-1 ATS subset of a 93-39-2 ATS home underdog situation that partially has to do with the fact that Portland State is coming off a loss. My ratings favor Portland State by only 4 1/2 points, so the line is fair, and I'll take Montana State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 or more.
Sunday College Opinion
Iowa (+12) over ILLINOIS
Iowa's performance has fallen off in 5 plus games without big man Cyrus Tate, but the line has nearly caught up to the Hawkeyes current level of play and Illinois applies to a very negative 1-37 ATS subset of a 15-65-1 ATS big home favorite letdown situation (yes, 1-37!). I still don't like to give up too line value no matter how good the situation and my ratings favor the Illini by 13 1/2 points. I'll lean with Iowa at +12 or more based on the strong situation and I'll take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points and for 3-Stars at +13 1/2 or more.Comment
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