Friday 5/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2021, 10:59 PM

Friday, May 14: Frank Carulli's Stronach 5 Picks

May 13, 2021 | By Frank Carulli
LEG A // PIMLICO, RACE 12 (5:12PM ET) // G3 PIMLICO SPECIAL STAKES // 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

FEARLESS, far back in a pair of Grade II route races last year, returned from a long layoff and raced closer to the pace in winning the G-II Gulfstream Park Mile and running second in the G-II Oaklawn Handicap. He is the one to beat as Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher seeks his third Pimlico Special victory in the last eight years. HARPERS FIRST RIDE returns in a new barn for his Pimlico Special title defense. He should sit just off the pace and could spring another upset if trainer Robertino Diodoro's assessment holds true that "he is a completely different horse" after battling recent foot issues.

LEG B // GOLDEN GATE, RACE 3 (5:20PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

BATUKAHN projects a dream stalking trip after he lacked room on the final turn and ran second at one mile on the main track last out. He earned a competitive speed figure in MSW company at Santa Anita while no threat to a next-out, stakes-placed turf rival two starts ago. WHISKEY TALK raced evenly against 2-to-5 winner Cargo two back, then pressed a faster pace before tiring in a follow-up try at this distance.

LEG C // SANTA ANITA, RACE 4 (5:35PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

MEASUREOFDEVOTION meets mostly 3-year-old rivals in her seasonal debut and her solid work tab includes a 1:01.3 breeze in company with $1.8 million earner Next Shares. She is today's solo play in the Stronach 5.

LEG D // GULFSTREAM, RACE 10 (5:38PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)

With morning-line favorite ROYAL ASSET making his first start of the year and the rest of the field a combined 22/1-2-0 on grass this year, spread deep in this leg of the ticket.

LEG E // PIMLICO, RACE 13 (5:44PM ET) // G2 BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES // 1 1/8 MILES (DIRT)

Will BEAUTIFUL GIFT negotiate post 10, get more pace flow than in recent starts and remain the only graded stakes winner in the field? Will ADVENTURING draw away for her third win in a row after none of her first four starts were scheduled on conventional dirt? Will ICED LATTE control the pace and carry her speed farther after she repelled the favorite and got caught in a 1-1/16-mile allowance? Will SPRITZ carry over her much improved form from Turfway Park's Polytrack surface? Will WILLFUL WOMAN prove more than an off-track specialist who romped in both starts with Lasix? Take all five horses in hopes of finding the correct answer.

SUGGESTED $1 STRONACH 5 TICKET

Leg A: 2, 7
Leg B: 5, 6
Leg C: 1
Leg D: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11
Leg E: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10
COST: $160

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2021, 11:00 PM

AI Picks for Friday's Pimlico Stakes Races

May 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
This Friday's 14-race card at Pimlico includes several important stakes races. To help you handicap the Pimilico Special and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, as well as our other offerings, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for both races.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

PIMLICO // RACE 8 (3:07PM ET) // G3 ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF S. // 1 1/8 MILES (DIRT)

1. #5 HOROLOGIST // 28% Win // 45% Place // 61% Show
2. #7 LANDING ZONE // 23% Win // 40% Place // 56% Show
3. #6 MRS. DANVERS // 17% Win // 38% Place // 51% Show
4. #8 LUCKY STRIDE // 11% Win // 23% Place // 36% Show

PIMLICO // RACE 9 (3:38PM ET) // THE VERY ONE S. // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)

1. #3 CARAVEL // 27% Win // 44% Place // 54% Show
2. #12 GOTTA GO MO // 14% Win // 26% Place // 36% Show
3. #9 CATCH A BID // 13% Win // 24% Place // 36% Show
4. #11 DIXIEINCANDYLAND // 7% Win // 14% Place // 32% Show

PIMLICO // RACE 10 (409PM ET) // G3 MISS PREAKNESS S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

1. #5 STREET LUTE // 28% Win // 44% Place // 56% Show
2. #8 EUPHORIC // 16% Win // 30% Place // 42% Show
3. #6 PRODIGY DOLL // 15% Win // 32% Place // 41% Show
4. #1 ABROGATE // 10% Win // 23% Place // 35% Show

PIMLICO // RACE 11 (4:40PM ET) // HILLTOP S. // 1 MILE (TURF)

1. #3 ALDA // 25% Win // 43% Place // 57% Show
2. #2 SEASONS // 19% Win // 27% Place // 34% Show
3. #8 IL MALOCCHIO // 11% Win // 24% Place // 32% Show
4. #7 SERENADE A KITTEN // 8% Win // 16% Place // 22% Show

PIMLICO // RACE 12 (5:12PM ET) // G3 PIMLICO SPECIAL S. // 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

1. #2 FEARLESS // 26% Win // 42% Place // 53% Show
2. #9 TREASURE TROVE // 19% Win // 33% Place // 43% Show
3. #7 HARPERS FIRST RIDE // 13% Win // 27% Place // 37% Show
4. #11 LAST JUDGMENT // 9% Win // 21% Place // 35% Show

BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES / RACE 13

1. #10 BEAUTIFUL GIFT // 28% Win // 45% Place // 55% Show
2. #9 ADVENTURING // 15% Win // 29% Place // 42% Show
3. #8 THE GRASS IS BLUE // 12% Win // 35% Place // 44% Show
4. #1 ARMY WIFE // 11% Win // 22% Place // 33% Show

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2021, 11:03 PM

Black-Eyed Susan Day Post Draw Reaction

May 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Friday’s 14-race Black-Eyed Susan Day program was drawn today at Pimlico, host of Saturday’s 146th running of the Preakness Stakes. Six stakes races are on the Friday docket, led by 10 three-year-old fillies in the Grade 2 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan (Race 13). The mile and one-eighth Black-Eyed Susan will be co-featured Friday along with the Grade 3 Pimlico Special (Race 12).

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app and Xpressbet.com will enjoy up to a $10 money-back guarantee on every race Friday and Saturday at if their Pimlico win bet in any race finishes second or third. Tournament players Friday can play an $80 feeder contest into Saturday’s $1,500 live bankroll Preakness Tournament. Visit Xpressbet.com/tournaments for details and to sign up.

The Black-Eyed Susan field is topped by Bourbonette Oaks 1-2 finishers Adventuring (post 9) and Spiritz (post 3), as well as Santa Anita Oaks runner-up Beautiful Gift. Spiritz and Beautiful Gift are expected to be part of the early pace and the former certainly won’t the draw in that regard. Local Win & You’re In qualifier Miss Leslie will leave from post 7.

The Pimlico Special lured 11 runners over its traditional mile and three-sixteenths trip. Major graded stakes winners Modernist and Fearless drew alongside on the fence. Defending champion Harpers First Ride (post 7) represents Maryland’s home team.

Friday’s undercard also includes the Grade 3 Allaire duPont Distaff, Grade 3 Miss Preakness, The Very One Stakes and the Hilltop Stakes. First post Friday will be 11:30 am ET and feature a Black-Eyed Susan / Preakness two-day daily double wager as well as advance wagering on the Preakness.

The post position draw for Saturday’s Preakness will be held Tuesday at 4 pm ET.

Grade 3 Pimlico Special // Race 12 // 5:12 pm ET

1. Modernist (Junior Alvarado)
2. Fearless (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
3. Forewarned (Alexander Crispin)
4. Enforceable (Tyler Gaffalione)
5. Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr.)
6. Prioritize (Joel Rosario)
7. Harpers First Ride (David Cohen)
8. Cordmaker (Victor Cassasco)
9. Treasure Trove (Luis Saez)
10. Alwaysmining (Sheldon Russell)
11. Last Judgment (Jose Ortiz)

Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes // Race 13 // 5:44 pm ET

1. Army Wife (Joel Rosario)
2. Willful Woman (Ricardo Santana Jr.)
3. Spiritz (Flavien Prat)
4. Forever Boss (Jose Ortiz)
5. Lady Traveler (Javier Castellano)
6. Iced Latte (Luis Saez)
7. Miss Leslie (J.D. Acosta)
8. The Grass is Blue (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
9. Adventuring (Florent Geroux)
10. Beautiful Gift (John Velazquez)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 05:53 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/14/21

May 14, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Reports

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Cleopatra’s Strike; 5-Irish Heatwave

Forecast: Irish Heatwave catches a field without any speed, so a front-running trip should be his for the asking. The P. Miller-trained horse remains well above his claim level in a sign of confidence, has recent speed figures that are good enough to beat this field, and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. Cleopatra’s Strike hasn’t won since capturing the John Henry S.-G2 over the local lawn in September of 2019 but drops to his lowest level ever, shows a healthy series of good workouts and is reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo. Despite what projects to be a slowly run affair, the veteran son of Smart Strike can really kick it when he’s on his game and represents the most dangerous of the closing types. We will include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Irish Heatwave on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Your Royal Coil

Forecast: Your Royal Coil, a solid runner-up vs. similar last month in her first outing since August, has trained well since and should produce enough of a forward move to handle this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming field of older fillies and mares. In the frame in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track that includes two wins, the A. Lerner-trained mare switches to T. Pereira, who was aboard for both of her victories, and should find herself either on the lead or in a comfortable pace stalking early position. In a five-runner field lacking depth, let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-One Flew South; 4-Rager; 5-Exultation

Forecast>: This starter’s allowance turf sprint drew six entrants, three of which appear to be legitimate contenders. Rager has produced rising speed figures in each of his last four starts and seems prepared for another forward move after beating a first-level allowance field over this turf course last month despite encountering some early trouble. The Into Mischief gelding should draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Exultation, in the frame in 11 of 13 career starts and a game winner over this course and distance vs. optional claiming foes in late March, should fire another big shot today for the powerful trainer/jockey combo of P. Eurton and U. Rispoli. The Paynter gelding has good tactical speed and can adjust to any type of race flow. He’s not quite as fast on pure numbers as are top pick, but he’s close. One Flew South didn’t offer a threat in a dirt track sprint two weeks ago but he’s back on grass today and should return to good form. His starter’s allowance score three races back charts quite well with this group and his overall record over the local lawn (in the money in four of five career starts) makes him usable in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Measureofdevotion; 4-Feeling Grazeful; 6-Omg It’s Jessica

Forecast: Feeling Grazeful is bred to win early and has done some very nice work in the a.m. to indicate she can score at first asking in this maiden state-bred filly and mare sprint. With a healthy, steady work tab for W. Spawr that includes a sharp :47 2/5 gate work in late March (see our Santa Anita Workout Report above), the daughter of Grazen looks live and extremely well meant first crack out of the box. Omg It’s Jessica, the best of the known element, adds blinkers and is certain to display good early speed. The daughter of Smiling Tiger gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug girl J. Pyfer and is the one to fear most. Measureofdevotion, away since the fall of 2019, returns for I. Kruljac with a nice series of drills that includes a bullet five furlong move on the training track in late April that caught the eye (see Workout Report). The daughter of Violence didn’t show a whole lot as a 2-year-old but could easily be a better type this time around.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Enough Nonsense; 4-Epidemic; 6-K P Silver Bullet

Forecast: K P Silver Bullet rallied with interest to finish a respectable second in his debut last month and today returns on the raise for new trainer J. Sadler. The son of Secret Circle has a right to improve with that effort behind him for a barn that excels with the first-off-the-claim angle (18% with a massive ROI). With the change to V. Espinoza and the switch to turf, the son of Secret Circle seems primed for a major effort. Enough Nonsense shows up in a seller for the first time and seems certain to improve against this much softer crew. He has back numbers that are better than par for the level and projects to settle into the second flight and then have his chance to make some noise late. We’ll also toss in Epidemic, far back in his last two starts when facing stakes quality maidens. The son of Orb has enough speed to be worrisome at this maiden $50,000 level.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Itsthattime; 4-California Street

Forecast: California Street hasn’t won since the spring of 2019 but this long overdue drop to the restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming level should wake him up. The P. Gallagher-trained gelding switches to U. Rispoli, is a strong fit on speed figures, and shows a prior win over the Santa Anita main track. Itsthattime ran well when second over this track and distance at this level two runs back but then was overmatched in his most recent outing when switched to grass. Back on the main track today and back where he belongs with regards to class, the Strong Mandate gelding gets a slight break in the weights with the switch to bug boy A. Centeno and is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail. Both of his career victories were accomplished two-turning on this dirt track.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Found My Ball; 6-Standing O

Forecast: Found My Ball was in too tough when a respectable fourth behind The Chosen Vron in the Echo Eddie S. sprinting on the main track last month but today the son of Square Eddie drops to the first-level allowance races, stretches out, and returns to turf. This will be his first try around two turns and we’re expecting that he will handle the extra ground just fine. Standing O is improving racing, and while he didn’t have much behind him when graduating in gate-to-wire fashion last time out the son of Acclamation has trained very well since and seems likely to produce a significant forward move. If he can make the running without pressure, he may prove difficult to catch. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Found My Ball on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Brilliant Bird; 5-Chollima

Forecast: Chollima just trounced a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 field here last month and is realistically spotted in open $10,000 company while seeking a repeat for a capable Los Alamitos-based outfit. The daughter of Paddy O’Prado projects to be on or near the lead throughout and can score again if she can turn in two alike. Brilliant Bird, in the money in all four of her starts since being claimed by R. Trela, should fire another good shot today. First or second in 15 of 31 career starts including nine wins, the veteran mare can be tough on the lead or when using stalk and pounce tactics. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with Chollima – based on speed figures – the logical top pick.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 05:56 AM

Jeff Siegel's Friday Pimlico Analysis - May 14, 2021

May 14, 2021
Jeff Siegel’s Pimlico Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, May 14, 2021 (Black-Eyed Susan Day)

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Golden Spear; 6-Projected; 11-Apreciado

Forecast: Black-Eyed Susan day opens with wide-open grass grab bag for older $10,000 claimers. We’ll try to survive and advance using just three, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Golden Spear, freshened since November but sporting a sharp recent series of workouts that should have him fit and ready, has fired fresh in the past and seems likely to enjoy a good second flight, ground-saving trip. He has several back numbers that are better than par for this level, so at 8-1 on the morning line there’s good wagering value to be found. Projected won a similar affair at Gulfstream Park last month in what already has proven to be a productive race and he’s always been a pro’s pro, having finished first or second in 23 of 44 career outings. He’s another that should be within striking range throughout and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Ex-classer Apreciado was a winner two runs back at Gulfstream Park with a competitive speed figure and drops to his lowest level ever for new trainer J. J. Toner. If he’s feeling good, the veteran gelding will be heard from late.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:01 ET Grade: B
Use: 7-Dr Jack; 8-Royal Number; 10-Johnny Sack

Forecast: Dr Jack was a first-out winner at Gulfstream Park last month, doing so with a pace-pressing trip and with something left at the finish to indicate today’s stretch-out in trip should be within his capabilities. Bred to run long (Pioneerof the Nile from a mare by A. P. Indy), the 3-year-old colt can handle this one-level raise in class under the assumption that he vans down from his home based at Belmont Park, where he is also entered to run today in the eighth race that carries a purse of $92,000 compared to the $52.000 that is being offered at Pimlico. But if he remains up north, Dr Jack will have to face the highly-regarded Stage Raider, who is certain to be odds-on owning to 22-point edge on Beyer figures. As of this writing, we’re not sure which race trainer T. Pletcher will opt for. If Dr. Jack fails to show up, top billing in this race should go to Royal Number, a respectable third in the Federico Tesio Stakes here three weeks ago. The son of Palace Music is a one-paced grinder but has speed figures that are gradually rising and actually won at this level fourth races back before being pitched too high in three subsequent stakes. Johnny Sack stretches out after a pair of solid sprints and has the bloodlines to handle the extra ground, though it’s possible he’s just a late-running sprinter. We’ll find out today.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:33 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Digital Dream; 7-Response Time; 8-Miranda’s Desmond

Forecast: Unless there is a hot-shot first-time starter in the field (and there very well could be), Response Time should be hard to beat in this five furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Mosler was extremely well-meant in her debut when finishing fast to be second after severe traffic trouble on the turf severely compromised her chances, but with better luck today the H. Smith-trained sophomore should be along in time. The shortening in trip and switch to grass shouldn’t be an issue but a pair of promising first-timers in the field have to included as well in rolling exotic play. Miranda’s Desmond, a first-timer from the B. Perkins, Jr., stable (superior stats with debut runners) is another daughter of Mosler and attracts F. Geroux, so the evidence suggests she can run some, while Digital Dream, a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, shows an intriguing series of workouts at Fair Hill for M. Trombetta.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Dinosaur Ben; 5-Benandjoe; 8-Prodigious Bay

Forecast: Dinosaur Ben shows a unique pattern in his past performance charts. In each of his seven starts, the son of Blame has achieved a career speed figure, most recently when easily handling a starter optional claiming field at Laurel Park with a thoroughly convincing performance over seven furlongs in mid-April. The versatile gelding stretches out to a middle distance today but has run very well in the past around two turns, so the added distance and the raise to a first-level allowance event should be well within his capabilities. The A. Aguirre-trained sophomore is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and we’ll take that if we can get it. Prodigious Bay earned a strong figure when second in an overnight race Oaklawn Park last month and with another forward move today will be right there. The son of Bayern attracts J. Rosario and from his outside draw should be able to drop in and secure a comfortable pace stalking position. We’ll also include Benandjoe on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play. A clever winner on grass vs. state-bred foes two weeks ago, the son of El Padrino is quite capable on dirt as well and has back numbers that put him in the picture. In a race that projects to be slowly run early, the H. McMahon-trained gelding could inherit the role as the controlling speed and be tough to catch if not respected.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:34 ET Grade: X
Use: 1-Pretty Lori; 8-Beantown Baby

Forecast: Beantown Baby is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this first-level allowance turf sprint and on paper looks it. The Artie Schiller mare crushed a starter’s optional claiming field last summer at Laurel Park while earning a career top speed figure but then was turned out. She returns with a steady, healthy work pattern for a barn that shows superb stats with layoff runners, and with J. Rosario taking the call the lightly-raced 5-year-old gives every indicating of being fit and ready. Pretty Lori might be worth including on a ticket as a saver in rolling exotic play. She’s extremely quick, draws the rail, and is trying grass for the first time. She should be in front early and on grass may be able to carry her speed a bit farther.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jeopardy James; 2-Belle Tapisserie; 10-Stroll Smokin

Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of a price in this difficult allowance optional claiming sprint that offers several legitimate contenders. Jeopardy James earned a career top speed figure when winning his first start off a nine month layoff at Tampa Bay Downs in late March, doing so in game fashion from a next-out winner while pressing a hot pace throughout. He’s been given sufficient time in between races to recover from what had to be a hard, taxing race, and if he can improve just a bit and enjoy a trouble-free journey from the rail the A. Delacour-trained son of Speightstown may be able to repeat on the raise at 8-1 on the morning line. D. Centeno stays aboard and knows him well. Win machine Belle Tapisserie is the likely choice and one to beat. Winner of five of his last six starts including his most recent four, the Tapizar gelding goes for new connections today following a $25,000 claim just two weeks ago and pure speed figures certainly appears capable of winning once again. He’s always been most effective on the lead but can stalk and pounce if the pace flow dictates. Stroll Smokin, first or second in 15 of 33 career starts, is comfortably drawn outside and should be prominent throughout, perhaps even on the lead. This is a slightly easier group that he’s been used to seeing of late, so at 10-1 on the morning line the Stroll gelding might be worth including somewhere as a saver.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lucky Ramsey; 7-On a Spree; 12-Street Copper

Forecast: Here’s another challenging turf race, a second-level allowance middle distance affair with possibilities up and down. Lucky Ramsey has been rested since January and shows just two easy breezes since then, but the veteran Lookin At Lucky gelding is a perfect one-for-one over the Pimlico turf course and goes for the red-hot K. Magee barn while drawing the good rail post. First or second in 26 of 52 career starts, he’s an old pro that always can be counted on, especially following a freshening. Street Copper, listed at 8-1 on the morning line and attracting J. L. Ortiz, is a Gulfstream Park invader that has finished second in his last pair with strong numbers for the level. He can drop over from his outside draw, secure some cover and then be produced late. On a Spree is winless in three starts this and was overmatched at Keeneland last time out, but this group is within his range, especially with a repeat of his sharp runner-up effort at Fair Grounds to races back.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:07 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Horologist; 6-Mrs. Danvers

Forecast: Horologist just beat Mrs. Danvers on the square in the Top Flight Invitational Aqueduct last month and there’s little reason to believe she won’t do it again over this same nine furlong trip in the DuPont Distaff at Pimlico. It’s possible that Mrs. Danvers can turn the tables – she’s reunited with “win rider J. Rosario and is likely to be the controlling speed once again – but Horologist has the good stalking style that allows J. Alvarado to place her wherever he wants and then have dead aim on her rival from the quarter pole home. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Neurologist on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Caravel; 5-Victory Kingdom; 12-Gotta Go Mo

Forecast: Gotta Go Mo gets the worst of the draw – she’s hung up in the 12-hole in the five furlong sprint – but if the daughter of Uncle Mo can secure any type of trip she can win this highly competitive turf stakes sprint for fillies and mares. Improving with each outing and fresh from a career top win in a state-bred allowance dash at Aqueduct lats month, the J. Kimmel-trained four-year-old seeks her fourth straight win while moving into added money company for the first time. We’re hoping she can be quick enough to get over and into a pace prompting position before the far turn and then have her chance from there. Caravel, away since October when finishing third in the License Fee stakes at Belmont Park two weeks ago, returns off short rest while switching to F. Geroux. She fast enough on numbers to win if she produces a forward move and was third in last year’s Hilltop Stakes over a mile in her only previous outing over the Pimlico lawn. We suspect Victory Kingdom prefers patient handling and with the switch to F. Prat should get just that. The Australian-bred mare is a fit on figures and though sparingly raced shows a good recent work tab that should have her primed for a major effort.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:09 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Red Ghost; 4-Paradise Song; 5-Street Lute

Forecast: This is a very difficult edition of the Miss Preakness S.-G2 for nine 3-year-old fillies who are at various stages of development and improvement. Red Ghost made her sophomore debut at Keeneland last month and was a visually pleasing winner of a first-level allowance race when rallying from mid-pack to drew clear in the final furlong without being knocked about. The daughter of Ghostzapper can build on that performance today for the W. Ward/J. Velasquez team and perhaps settle in the second flight and then produce another winning late kick. Street Lute won seven of her first eight races before failing at 3/5 in a mile stakes at Laurel Park in mid-March. Freshened, training sharply and backing up to six furlongs, the J. Robb-trained filly seems likely to rebound with her best effort and be in the thick of things every step of the way. Paradise Song obliterated a much softer allowance field last time out with a career top speed figure. These are considerably tougher, but the Frosted offers good price value at 10-1 on the morning under the assumption that her improving pattern will continue in what will be just her fifth career outing.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tracy Flick; 5-Bubbles On Ice

Forecast: Tracy Flick technically is still a maiden, but she can run, and we suspect the addition of blinkers will really move her up. Disqualified out of a winning debut race at Gulfstream Park in February, the daughter of War Front returned at Keeneland last month and ran quite well in a hot race to miss by a nose, only to get taken down again for racing greenly and causing interference in mid-stretch. She’s worked well since, draws the rail, is a fit on speed figures and retains J. Rosario, so if she performs mistake free she can pull off a mild surprise at 6-1 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the Hilltop S. Bubbles On Ice won the Memories of Silver S. at the Big A in her U.S. debut with a last-to-first rally from the top of the lane to mid-stretch last month and today gets Lasix while seeking a repeat victory. She was a bit headstrong early in the race but finally settled and then accelerated impressively when turned loose. Similar tactics will be employed today by J. Castellano, so if she switches off early, gets cover, and is produced late the C. Clement-trained filly should be hard to contain. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Tracy Flick.
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RACE 12: Post: 5:12 ET Grade: B+
Single: 2-Fearless

Forecast: Fearless, even in defeat, performed admirably when finishing second in the Oaklawn H.-G2 last time out, earning a career top speed figure despite going down by a half-length to Silver State in a race that verified his sharp 2021 debut when winning the Gulfstream Park Mile-G2 in February. Today the son of Ghostzapper stretches out to nine furlongs, a distance that should be well within his range though his two previous outings at this trip have been sub-par. In a race that should have reasonable early splits, the T. Pletcher-trained gelding should be able to secure an ideal second flight, stalking position and then go on with it when asked. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single in this year’s edition of the Pimlico Special-G3.
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RACE 13: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B
Use: 9-Adventuring; 10-Beautiful Gift

Forecast: The Black-Eyed Susan S.-G2 should boil down to the two fillies drawn on the far outside. Adventuring is improving with every start, breaking her maiden in sharp style two runs back and then a listed stakes race over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. Her numbers have risen with each outing, though she’ll need another big of improvement to handle the West Coast shipper Beautiful Gift, winner of the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 two runs back and then going down by a half length to Soothsay in the Santa Anita Oaks-G2. The B. Baffert-trained filly had every chance in that race but missed but against this group she deserves the favorite’s role. Will go with Adventuring on top – she’s sure to be the better price – but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 14: Post: 6:25 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-My Dream Girl; 6-No Down Days; 7-Fred’s Sheila

Forecast: The finale is a messy maiden claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares with price chances galore. Fred’s Sheila, in the frame in both starts and a closing second (nearly five lengths clear of the rest) in her comeback last month following a less-than-ideal trip, has the pedigree to improve going long and switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider H. Karamanos while being raised from maiden $16,000 to maiden $25,00 in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. She’s a fit on speed figures and likely capable of better, so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. My Dream Girl has a similar pattern. The daughter of Congrats makes her third career start (but just her second this year) while adding blinkers in her first start off a $25,000 claim for a clever outfit. From where she’s drawn she should draft into a stalker’s position and be a strong factor throughout at 15-1 on the morning line. No Down Days is a sprinter-stretching-out class dropper with the kind of early speed that makes her dangerous in her first try on grass. As a daughter of Blame from a mare by Dixie Union, she’s bred to route and could easily make the most of the opportunity. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s a “must use.”

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 05:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #6

#2 Willie the Whale	Looks like a logical alternative to the likely heavy chalk drawn just outside of him, and this guy has pretty reliable form for the level. Chance if the favorite doesn't bring his best.
#3 Unimaginable U	He scored easily when trying basement maiden claimers in his local debut, and he looks like the type who has a big claim on a repeat score while trying winners for the first time. The one to beat, but the price won't be anything.
#6 Grandpa Munster	His form is hit or miss, but he showed something better last time out, and a similar effort would keep him in the mix for a piece of this. Tough to trust.
Race Summary	Willie the Whale is a fairly reliable type, and he has a bit of versatility that should allow him to find a decent trip today.

Charles Town - Race #7

#2 Another Victory	There are a couple of potential forward players to hopefully produce a fair pace, as this guy has some finishing ability and almost always runs his race locally with six exacta finishes from nine starts.
#6 Air Token	He brings some formidable Laurel running lines with him to this one, and he is probably a handful here if he handles the local footing. Think he'll get bet below the 3/1 ML price.
#7 Final Say	He can pass horses from just about anywhere, and he might work out a good trip in midpack behind an honest pace. That 6/1 ML price feels about right.
Race Summary	Another Victory is interesting from off the pace, as he owns a solid local record and might have one more step forward in him while making this third start off the bench.

Charles Town - Race #8

#1 True Crossing	He figures to show some speed from the inside in a race without a ton of other pace, and this feels like the kind of group he may be able to wire.
#10 Gaming Jack	Dropper can be tough here while cutting the tag in half, and he's finding this easier spot while in pretty decent overall form. Beat him to score.
#6 Executive Retreat	The last few haven't been much to write home about, but he's not too far removed from some efforts in which he was able to spy and finish -- that kind of trip might serve him well tonight.
Race Summary	True Crossing has some pace from the fence and should be able to find the front from there. The 6/1 ML price intrigues.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 06:00 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #11

#6 VICTORYDAZE WILWIN	Better than latest appears, must use in all gimmicks.
#5 ASTOR	No threat from post 7 in fastest division of split race, third in prior pair.
#3 BOLDER	Hit board in 8 of 18 starts this year, moves outside in, big price.
Race Summary	Victorydaze Wilwin is a live longshot at 15-1 on the morning line. He raced wide on both turns last week, went around dead cover and finished willingly. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

Meadowlands - Race #4

#9 DATELINE HANOVER	Chased fast pace and tired, might forget to stop in here.
#2 BETTOR BB	Wired field at this level two back, made middle move and flattened out against better.
#5 NA NA NA BAATMAN	Rallied into a slow pace for his third consecutive in-the-money finish.
Race Summary	Dateline Hanover has enough speed to get to the front early from post 9 and could go a long way with Gingras after he tired on an 'off' track while chasing a :55.3 opening half mile. Play 9-2 and 9-5 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #11

#6 BRO	Held up in traffic at key juncture, got up for third on the inside.
#4 CROOKED SMILE	Rallied for pair of seconds in April, met better in last two starts.
#10 ROCKINSWEETVICTORY	Second at this level, expect early move from second tier.
Race Summary	Bro was shuffled to seventh on the final turn, then recovered to finish a game third while following the winner on the inside. He could reward his loyal backers with a win tonight. Play a 4-6-10 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 06:01 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#2 Cleopatra's Strike	Was graded stakes placed last year and can revive his form with this class drop; hasn't run well in quite a while but has a decided class advantage.
#3 Seeking Refuge	Was second two races back in the last time he was on this course; is in decent form and can get a piece of this.
#5 Irish Heatwave	Likely to be a pace factor and comes in off a mid-pack finish in a restricted stakes race; makes third off the claim for Miller.
Race Summary	Cleopatra's Strike should be able to get a reversal in form with this leap down the class ladder and is overdue for a good effort; running at this price should help him out.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#2 Play Chicken	Has a good chance to carve out the fractions and can dig in during his first appearance off the claim by Knapp; has been a regular in the Cal-bred stakes races and fits here.
#1 Found My Ball	Improved position to fourth in the Echo Eddie Stakes last out and has been in some other good races; stretches out on turf and can be formidable.
#3 Big Talker	Has finished with good energy in her last three races and could benefit from a good pace.
Race Summary	Play Chicken has the speed to dictate how this develops and can dig in at this price; one to catch.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#2 Girona	Looks like the only one in here that has passed horses; while not a deep closer by any means, he can be effective just off this rapid pace and can survive late.
#4 Brilliant Bird	Was on the board in his last four and has shown good speed over this strip; fits here.
#1 Luck Be Mine	Drops in price off the claim at Turf Paradise and has been in much tougher races than this; the drop is questionable.
Race Summary	Girona has enough speed to stay in range and has the finished touch to be successful vs. these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 10:03 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horsemen's Park

Horsemen's Park - Race 2	$1 Pick 4 (.50 wheels) / $2 Exacta ($1 bx/whl) / $1 Trifecta (.50 bx/whl) .20 min. Superfecta
Starter Allowance $2,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 6:45P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $2,500 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (1ST PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED AT FONNER PARK IN 2021).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MY DARLING SOFIA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHEVERIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MOONFIELD: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. ZYXYZ: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. UNFADING BEAUTY: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days.
5	MY DARLING SOFIA	5/1	9/2
6	CHEVERIE	3/1	6/1
1	MOONFIELD	10/1	8/1
2	ZYXYZ	7/2	9/1
4	UNFADING BEAUTY	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	TAYLOR'S BEAUTY	7	8/1	Front-runner	73	64	64.4	55.2	44.7
1	MOONFIELD	1	10/1	Front-runner	70	65	63.6	58.2	46.2
5	MY DARLING SOFIA	5	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	70	73.6	65.0	62.0
6	CHEVERIE	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	62	58.4	65.4	59.4
3	DIVA'S DIVA	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	67	46.5	64.2	53.2
2	ZYXYZ	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	74	67	52.3	66.6	59.1
4	UNFADING BEAUTY	4	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	77	76	41.2	55.6	51.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 10:04 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $6,000 SINCE MAY 14, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 29, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 14, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 14, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SURF HEAT is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SURF HEAT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the high est average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
10	SURF HEAT	3/1	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	NORTH CAT	3	9/2	Front-runner	77	84	65.6	65.6	58.6
7	NOBLE QUEST	7	15/1	Front-runner	71	67	64.5	56.9	46.4
5	SUGAR DANDY	5	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	77	69	64.0	48.6	41.1
10	SURF HEAT	10	3/1	Stalker	68	77	77.4	89.9	87.4
8	TRAPFICANTE	8	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	66	63.9	59.1	41.1
6	CPL. DIONICIO	6	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	74	47.6	58.0	49.0
4	ELECTRIFYING	4	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	72	42.2	57.8	50.3
1	LAUNDRY BOY	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	60.1	54.3	38.8
2	ARCH D'AMOUR	2	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	70	35.8	37.8	22.3
9	DRILL CANDY	9	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	56	32.2	47.2	32.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 10:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:32pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,200 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#3 JUSTICE OF WAR (ML=4/1)
#10 GAMING JACK (ML=5/2)
#5 SCYTHE (ML=15/1)

JUSTICE OF WAR - According to well-known handicapping authorities, the stalking-type of thoroughbred is one of the most solid bets in racing. GAMING JACK - I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong outing within the last thirty days. Robb drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more information to think this animal should run well at this level. I like the fact that this colt's last speed fig, 78, is tops in this field. SCYTHE - The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this affair. Looking at today's class figure, this racer is up against an easier group than last time around the track at Charles Town. Coming off a fourth place finish at Charles Town, some may skip over this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has respectable morning odds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MEO DESPERADO (ML=5/1), #1 TRUE CROSSING (ML=6/1), #6 EXECUTIVE RETREAT (ML=8/1),

MEO DESPERADO - Hard to play a entrant that cannot even win one time in his last ten races. No good fortune for this entrant in a short distance contest over the last couple months tells me that this gelding is in a tough situation TRUE CROSSING - Don't feel this pony will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. EXECUTIVE RETREAT - Tough to support any runner in a short distance affair if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 JUSTICE OF WAR to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 10:05 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - SO - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 14 ALLOWED 2LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 GODS BLESSING 15/1
# 4 KHOZANDO 5/1
# 5 GREYZER 8/5

GODS BLESSING could be the wager in here especially at 15/1. Had one of the most favorable Equibase speed figs of this group in his last competition. Solid average speed figures in dirt route races make this horse a solid choice. Love when any pony makes a quick major improvement. KHOZANDO - Overall the speed figs of this pony look quite good in this outing. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of very strong win percentage - 19 percent - at this distance & surface. GREYZER - His 75 average has this gelding with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figs in this race. Ran a strong last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 10:06 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 3:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#3 ENOUGH NONSENSE (ML=5/2)
#1 PRINCE MAGICIAN (ML=3/1)

ENOUGH NONSENSE - Ran in the last race against a much better field at Santa Anita. The move down the class scale should suit him well. Colt looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Colt is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a nice effort today. PRINCE MAGICIAN - This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a thoroughbred that finished runner-up in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the third horse. Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the first time on April 10th. Should be acquainted with the horse even better in today's race. This colt's last speed rating is high enough to win here, I'll wager on him right back this time. You'll be making money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jock/conditioner combination.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 K P SILVER BULLET (ML=7/2), #4 EPIDEMIC (ML=4/1), #5 MAHAAMEL (IRE) (ML=6/1),

K P SILVER BULLET - This rallier looks to have little chance without an early battle up front. EPIDEMIC - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been sharp in sprint races recently. No speed in this event to help this rallier's hopes. MAHAAMEL (IRE) - The Brain cautions me to stay away from thoroughbreds in sprint contests that haven't hit the board in sprint races recently. Unlikely that the rating he earned on May 1st will hold up in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 ENOUGH NONSENSE to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2021, 10:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arlington

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 104

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,800 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14, 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 LEMON KICK 5/1
# 8 STAR OF KODIAK 9/2
# 1 FARAWAY KITTEN 8/1

LEMON KICK is the top wager in this race. Garnered a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. Always difficult to beat Davis and Lopez working together, winning 39 percent of their races. STAR OF KODIAK - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Davis have shown very strong results lately. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. FARAWAY KITTEN - Posted a decent Equibase speed fig last time out. Should best this group here, showing quite good numbers of late.

Friday 5/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 5/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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