Friday 5/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359701

    Friday 5/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359701

    #2
    Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/21/21

    May 21, 2021

    Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
    *
    The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
    *
    *
    Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


    Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


    RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
    Use: 1-The Longest Night; 4-Silver Moon Road

    Forecast: The Longest Night returns waiver protected off a year and one-half layoff for a barn that has superior stats (23%, massive ROI) with comebackers and with a work tab that should have him fit and ready in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses. The Paynter gelding lands one of stable’s “go-to” riders in R. Gonzalez, and in a field without much pace he should be on or near the lead throughout. Bay Area invader Silver Moon Road, second in his first two career starts but beaten at 4/5 in his most recent outing in late April, picks up F. Prat and has the proper stalking style for this six and one-half furlong trip. The Secret Circle gelding is clearly one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with The Longest Night getting the slight edge on top.
    *
    *
    RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
    Use: 1-Royal O’Haigain; 3-Distorted Diva; 7-Harddiane

    Forecast: Royal O’Haigain has been burning up the track in her a.m. preps while getting ready for her debut, and from a barn that sends them fit and ready she figures to get plenty of play in this four and one-half furlong dash for juvenile fillies. She’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower. Distorted Diva has the benefit of a prior run – a respectable third place finish (beaten 7 and one-half lengths) in a fast race earlier this month – and seems likely to move forward with that effort behind her. Based on the early speed she displayed in that race, the daughter of Distorted Humor may be as quick as anything in the field. Harddiane has shown some ability in the morning and is worth consideration as well. A recent half mile workout from the gate in 47 seconds was visually pleasing and from her outside draw the daughter of Hard Spun should enjoy clear sailing and have every chance. All three should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Royal O’Haigain.
    *
    *
    RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: C+
    Use: 2-Peace Pipe; 3-Acai; 7-Vegas Palm

    Forecast: Acai> was nosed out in a similar affair over this course and distance last time out and though winless in five starts on the Santa Anita lawn and just one-for-14 during her career the D. O’Neill-trained daughter of Square Eddie deserves a slight nod on top. She’s most effective on the front end and projects to be the quickest of this group. Vegas Palm is zero-for-nine on the course and just one-for-17 overall, so she’s not exactly trustworthy, either. However, the veteran mare can turn it on late and should be heard from in the final furlong. Peace Pipe has the first-time-for-a-tag angle that makes her dangerous and has won over the local lawn in the past, albeit in a two-turn event. The daughter of Tribal Rule has numbers that fit and in a soft field deserves at least some consideration.
    *
    *
    RACE 4: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: B
    Use: 4-Careless Kitten; 9-Winhappy

    Forecast: Winhappy has been virtually eased in two career outings but in both races he flashed early speed before fading and both came against stakes quality competition in two of the strongest maiden races of the year. Drawn comfortably outside in a lethargic field that offers no other known early speed, the son of Runhappy should be capable of taking control early and then getting brave and rolling all the way to the wire. He continues to train well so we suspect at this (proper) level the sophomore gelding has found his friends. For protection, you may want to consider Careless Kitten on your ticket, at least as a back-up. He’s a seven race maiden with just one second place finish on his resume but the V. Brinkerhoff-trained gelding exits a productive race and shows a runner-up effort two races back that charts pretty well with these.
    *
    *
    RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
    Use: 4-True Mischief; 6-So Much Happy

    Forecast: True Mischief isn’t exactly consistent or dependable and has managed to beat a total of one horse in two prior turf outings but there are reasons to expect a good effort today from the daughter of Into Mischief. Firstly, her grass form isn’t as bad as it looks, as both prior outings were sprinting against much tougher. Secondly, her easy win two races back earned a number good enough to beat this field, and while it was accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion she’s also quite capable of settling in mid-pack and producing a winning late kick, as she did when breaking her maiden by five lengths in December at Los Alamitos. In a field loaded with need-the-lead types, the R. Baltas-trained mare should be capable of settling in mid-pack and then responding when set down for the drive. So Much Happy is a blast-away front-runner with good recent speed figures that make her the one to fear most. The daughter of Twirling Candy gets a massive break in the weights with the switch to good bug girl rider J. Pyfer and if she can switch off just a little during the early stages she could prove very difficult to catch. We’ll sink or swim using just these two in our rolling exotics.
    *
    *
    RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B
    Use: 4-Lovesick Blues; 7-Press Briefing

    Forecast: Press Briefing, first off the second for J. Bonde after being worn down late and missing by a neck for this same $16,000 price last month, returns in this restricted (nw-2) abbreviated dash while switching to F. Prat. Simply stated, he will be hard to deny with anything close to his best race. The son of Khozan shows a healthy work pattern for his new outfit and is guaranteed a good stalking trip from his comfortable outside draw. Lovesick Blues tackles older rivals today after winning a recent sprint at this level that was restricted to 3-year-olds. His numbers are improving but will require another forward move to be competitive against this tougher, older group. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Press Briefing on top.
    *
    *
    RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B+
    Use: 2-Cibertruck; 7-Letsgetlucky

    Forecast: Letsgetlucky, a respectable third in the Echo Eddie S. behind subsequent graded stakes winner The Chosen Vron, tries turf for the first time today in this state-bred first level allowance race and if can duplicate that effort on this surface the K. Mulhall-trained gelding should be hard to beat. We’re expecting the son of Munnings to be on the lead or in a good pace pressing position outside. Cibertruck just graduated over this course and distance and did so in good style from off the pace. With some help up front the son of Vronsky almost certainly will make his presence felt in the final furlong. We’ll give Letsgetlucky the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
    *
    *
    RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: C+
    Use: 2-Kind But She Lies; 3-Avisse; 6-Nobu

    Forecast: The finale is a messy affair for maiden claiming sophomore fillies. We’ll go three-deep, but you should include as many as you can afford to. Nobu seems fairly logical on top in her first start for a tag. Beaten at 4/5 vs. straight maidens up north last month, she nevertheless earned a good enough speed figure to handle this group and therefore must be given a chance to make amends. The daughter of Uncaptured gets a break in the weights with the switch to J. Pyfer and while she may be vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong this abbreviated sprint distance will help her see out the trip. Kind But She Lies seems to be gradually improving and today adds blinkers for the first time. A repeat of either one of her last two starts makes her dangerous. Avisse is a nine-race maiden with back numbers than can win, but since being claimed for $50,000 by her present outfit the daughter of Point of Entry hasn’t made any progress. She does the route-to-sprint angle that we like and with patient handling could be dangerous from off the pace, so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.
    *
    *
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 359701

      #3
      Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 5/21/21

      May 21, 2021

      Every Friday and Saturday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

      *

      Belmont Park Race 7 - Post time: 4:08 ET
      4-Tapple Cider (7/2)

      Makes her debut in late May of her 3-year-old season against a moderate group of New York-breds and seems to have a found a proper spot to win at first asking in this one-turn mile main track affair. The daughter of Tonalist brought $290,000 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale last year after an impressive :22 1/5 breeze during the preview session, and her recent workouts, while not particularly flashy, are solid and steady and should have her fit and ready. At 5-1 on the morning line, the B. Tagg-trained filly offers good wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

      *

      Gulfstream Park Race 9 - Post: 4:57 ET
      1-Uptown Queen (3-1)

      Freshened since late January and dropping to her lowest level, this maiden 4-year-old daughter of Big Drama appears ready to earn her diploma in this seven and one-half furlong grass affair for fillies and mares. From her favorable inside draw she is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip, and with a significant edge in speed figures the D. Fawkes-trained filly should settle in the second flight and then be capable of producing a winning late kick. We’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 3-1.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 359701

        #4
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

        Charles Town - Race #6
        Picks Notes
        #2 Frankee Merch His recent form seems as good as Creekmore's, and this guy might offer a slightly better price on the board. Tactical type gets the jump on the main competition.
        #4 Creekmore His local form has been decent, but he wasn't in really good form when last seen in February. Maybe some time off will do him good, but I'll stand against tonight.
        #7 Rosas Way He has a little bit of versatility in running style, and he might be well served by sitting a little bit closer than he did last time around.
        Race Summary Frankee Merch and Creekmore are the likely chalks here, but the former should be able to get a jump on the latter at a better price.

        Charles Town - Race #7
        Picks Notes
        #4 Derby Day Dreams There are enough forward types in here that his spying style might play well in this spot, leaving him to take over in the lane if the speed comes back.
        #5 Nico He has been away more than 18 months, but his late 2019 form would make him pretty tough to handle with these. He'd be appealing at something like the 7/2 ML price off the bench, but I think he might get bet below that.
        #3 River Crosroad Rvf He has done some decent work at this local trip in the past, and he's quick enough to sit close in the early going, but he can also rate just a touch off it to avoid getting in a battle. Dangerous.
        Race Summary Derby Day Dreams is worth a price look in a race where the listed three all have claims on it. The top choice might get the right kind of trip behind the players who are more committed to the front end.

        Charles Town - Race #8
        Picks Notes
        #7 No Kitten She showed some chasing pace and faded in the Indiana Grand debut, but she might appreciate this two-turn tempo a bit more and can stick around better with that last one under her belt.
        #5 Rachel's Wish She's supposed to win this race in her local debut, as she owns several back running lines that would do the trick, but that has also been the case many times throughout her 18 starts that have yet to produce a win. Tough to love, but she's logical.
        #1 Grandma Schnur There really isn't a ton to get excited about in here, and this filly at least has some upside while getting Lasix and stretching out in this second lifetime start. Worth including.
        Race Summary No Kitten probably has enough pace to be right up on the splits while stretching around two turns. She has room to improve off the debut run, and she might like the added ground.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 359701

          #5
          Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

          Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
          Picks Notes
          #5 JENORA N Chased odds-on fave in latest, likes Harrah's, can return quick claim dividend.
          #3 TRUSSED UP TRUDY Parked while chasing fast splits at Pocono, plays to a steady beat.
          #8 ALKIPPE Far back from post 8 in same spot, lures Dunn.
          Race Summary Jenora N chased the 3-to-5 favorite and finished second after a :55.1 back half, earning a playback after four consecutive 1-2 finishes at the track. Bet to win and place on the likely second choice.

          Freehold - Race #3
          Picks Notes
          #6 SKYWAY JAGUAR Rallied into soft pace on turn, flattened out, went off stride.
          #3 WATKINS Got away easy on front end, just missed on class drop to this level.
          #1 WHOUCALNCRAZY Made middle move to clear lead against lesser, draws rail.
          Race Summary Taking a price stab on Skyway Jaguar, who edged closer in the third quarter after the pace slowed, was in range of the leaders for the stretch drive, but broke stride as he began to fade. Play a 1-3-6 exacta box.

          Hawthorne - Race #1
          Picks Notes
          #1 NORTHERN ANGLE Held up twice in traffic, finished willingly at 69-1, solid play.
          #6 ALMOST CUT MY HAIR Finished troubled second at Cal-Expo while making fourth start in 21 days.
          #7 HOT ROD DYLAN Good speed in last pair, gave way in stretch, seeks first win of year.
          Race Summary Northern Angle lacked running room in the opening half mile, joined a lively outer flow while 3-deep, then lost momentum in traffic while rallying in the stretch. He appears rounding to a good effort and starts from the rail. Play 1-6 and 1-7 exactas.
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 359701

            #6
            Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

            Gulfstream Park - Race #4
            Picks Notes
            #5 Sovereign Warrior Moved forward steadily in his last two, finishing third in both starts; has rounded into good turf sprint form and can take aim late in this one.
            #4 What's Inside Lost a photo last time, following a win; has mixed it up in some good races and fits here.
            #3 Full Loaded Brings it every time and if you want to win, he's a strong factor you have to deal with; does well over the course.
            Race Summary Sovereign Warrior can stay with range of the leaders in this rapid heat and has the best chance to do some damage in the final furlongs.

            Gulfstream Park - Race #5
            Picks Notes
            #6 Raspberry Ballet Gets an ideal pace set up and has been on the board in five of her last six; broke her maiden two back and gets Lopez in the saddle this time.
            #2 Tiz Possible Dear Stretches out at leading at shorter distances and can be very strong here if able to tone down the pace.
            #4 Nacho Mama Was along for fourth last out and has a couple of decent efforts at the distance.
            Race Summary Raspberry Ballet has the decent closing move and can be the one to watch if pacesetters falter late.

            Gulfstream Park - Race #8
            Picks Notes
            #1 Caxambas Candy Tried going long on turf and is back to a one-turn mile, a distance at which he broke his his maiden; can battle for the lead from the inside post and can get back to good form.
            #3 Hercules Goes for his fourth straight win and can can adjust to any pace; solid chance.
            #5 Texas Basin Was up in time at Aqueduct and can get a good stalking trip; capable of a big effort.
            Race Summary Caxambas Candy has the speed to be in good position from the start and should be able to run a big race in his return to the main track.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 359701

              #7
              F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers

              Golden Hour Wagers - Race 3
              Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Double
              Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 CR: 83 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 4:44P
              SA - R8 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $28,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
              Contenders
              Race Analysis
              P#
              Horse
              Morn
              Line
              Accept
              Odds

              Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * NOBU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BRIO IS AWESOME: Today is a sprint and t his is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MEDUSA'S GAZE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. AVISSE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KIND BUT SHE LIES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
              6
              NOBU
              4/1
              4/1
              5
              BRIO IS AWESOME
              5/1
              7/1
              8
              MEDUSA'S GAZE
              5/1
              9/1
              3
              AVISSE
              6/1
              9/1
              2
              KIND BUT SHE LIES
              3/1
              10/1

              P#
              Horse (In Running Style Order)
              Post
              Morn
              Line
              Running Style
              Good
              Class
              Good
              Speed
              Early Figure
              Finish Figure
              Platinum
              Figure
              1
              SWEET SOULMATE
              1
              6/1
              Front-runner
              0
              0
              93.9
              40.8
              28.8
              3
              AVISSE
              3
              6/1
              Front-runner
              86
              75
              58.6
              59.6
              53.6
              10
              BIG AL'S PRINCESS
              10
              7/2
              Front-runner
              68
              65
              35.1
              50.4
              38.4
              2
              KIND BUT SHE LIES
              2
              3/1
              Alternator/Front-runner
              79
              68
              77.8
              57.7
              50.2
              5
              BRIO IS AWESOME
              5
              5/1
              Alternator/Front-runner
              75
              72
              69.4
              61.7
              52.2
              6
              NOBU
              6
              4/1
              Stalker
              86
              69
              82.5
              65.4
              62.4
              8
              MEDUSA'S GAZE
              8
              5/1
              Stalker
              77
              68
              34.6
              63.4
              54.9
              7
              PERFECTLY JULIE
              7
              10/1
              Alternator/Non-contender
              0
              0
              60.5
              45.2
              32.2
              Unknown Running Style: PRINCESS SYNSKY (12/1) [Jockey: Herrera Diego A - Trainer: Palma Hector O], TWIRLY GIRL (20/1) [Jockey: Espinoza Juan - Trainer: Brinkerhoff Val].
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 359701

                #8
                F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park

                Belterra Park - Race 1
                Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
                Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 62 • Purse: $15,700 • Post: 12:35
                FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 21 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 21, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
                Contenders
                Race Analysis
                P#
                Horse
                Morn
                Line
                Accept
                Odds

                Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CONGRATS JENSEN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CONGRATS JENSEN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
                3
                CONGRATS JENSEN
                8/5
                8/5

                P#
                Horse (In Running Style Order)
                Post
                Morn
                Line
                Running Style
                Good
                Class
                Good
                Speed
                Early Figure
                Finish Figure
                Platinum
                Figure
                3
                CONGRATS JENSEN
                3
                8/5
                Front-runner
                52
                63
                78.6
                51.4
                46.9
                2
                EDGE OF PLEASURE
                2
                5/2
                Alternator/Stalker
                69
                46
                44.6
                51.0
                46.5
                4
                MAYBETHEDAY
                4
                3/1
                Trailer
                61
                53
                25.4
                40.0
                33.0
                5
                GRADUATEWITHHONORS
                5
                5/1
                Alternator/Non-contender
                63
                55
                26.8
                42.0
                36.0
                1
                CARLY'S FLIGHT
                1
                8/1
                Alternator/Non-contender
                42
                43
                24.4
                31.2
                23.7
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 359701

                  #9
                  Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sun Ray Park

                  Always check program numbers.
                  Odds shown are morning line odds.




                  Race 5 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 83

                  QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

                  RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                  # 6 A CHABANERO 3/1
                  # 7 TWELVE PERCENT 7/2
                  # 1 SMITH JERROD 8/1
                  A CHABANERO has a quite good shot to take this race. This horse has to be in condition coming back to the track so soon. Martinez has this gelding running well and is a respectable selection based on the solid speed figures posted in short races recently. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the race. TWELVE PERCENT - Earned a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. He has been running well and the Speed Figures are among the top in this field. SMITH JERROD - Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 359701

                    #10
                    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                    Penn National - Race #9 - Post: 9:28pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 45

                    Rating:

                    #5 DIVA OF SEVILLE (ML=4/1)


                    DIVA OF SEVILLE - If this filly gets out of the gate cleanly, she'll be tough to catch. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the class to make her presence felt. This racer ran outside the top 3 at Penn National in the last race on a track listed as good. She should improve in this field on a fast track.

                    Vulnerable Contenders: #1 EMILIA STRONG (ML=2/1), #2 HERE I COME (ML=5/2), #3 COLONEL BAILEY (ML=9/2),

                    EMILIA STRONG - This filly is always close, but just doesn't finish on top. Tough to wager on her on the front end. HERE I COME - No pace in this event to help this come from behinder's hopes. Improbable that the speed rating she notched on May 7th will hold up in this event. COLONEL BAILEY - 9/2 is just too low of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back efforts. Will probably be way back with way too much to do in the lane.



                    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #5 DIVA OF SEVILLE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
                    EXACTA WAGERS: Pass

                    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                    Skip
                    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 359701

                      #11
                      Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

                      Always check program numbers.
                      Odds shown are morning line odds.




                      Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8600 Class Rating: 46

                      FOR NATIVE FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 21, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 21, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $16,000 2 LBS.

                      RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                      # 1 CATULA 5/2
                      # 5 LA GOBERNADORA 3/2
                      # 4 DERRUMBE 2/1
                      CATULA is the strongest bet in this race. Looks very good to be on or close to the lead at the first call. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the most respectable class figures of this group. LA GOBERNADORA - The average Equibase class figure of 34 makes this one hard to beat. This filly with Diaz in the saddle makes her a solid choice. DERRUMBE - Has been running admirably lately and should be up on the front end early on. No strangers to the winner's circle, Gomez and Castro should have this filly breaking away from the field.
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 359701

                        #12
                        Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                        Golden Gate Fields - Race #4 - Post: 2:52pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 84

                        Rating:

                        #2 WAY TO FIRE (ML=4/1)
                        #1 SCHERZO (GB) (ML=3/1)
                        #6 FIRE DIAMONDS (ML=7/2)


                        WAY TO FIRE - When a thoroughbred finishes in-the-money as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. This filly should get a perfect trip in this spot. She looks like the only 'stalker' in this race. SCHERZO (GB) - 'Horse-for-the-course' is a classic handicapping angle. Since this filly has won over this course it may give her an advantage. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this thoroughbred has the highest speed rating for the distance and surface. When I handicap a race on the grass, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This horse has the highest average class in the entire bunch. FIRE DIAMONDS - I have to like this filly's chances at the shorter distance. This jock and trainer are dependable together. Win percentage when teamed up is difficult to best. Horses out of the barn of Sherman have been strong on the grass. I'd calculate a good performance.

                        Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HOLY ZAGS (ML=5/2), #5 TORQUAY (ML=4/1),

                        HOLY ZAGS - Not probable that the speed figure she garnered on Apr 25th will hold up in this event. TORQUAY - Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list.



                        STRAIGHT WAGERS: #2 WAY TO FIRE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
                        EXACTA WAGERS: Pass

                        TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                        Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6
                        SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 359701

                          #13
                          Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park


                          05/21/21, SA, Race 8, 4.44 PT
                          05/21/21,SA,8,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:01:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $31,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $28,000, allowed 2 lbs.
                          . . . .
                          Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                          After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
                          100.0000 5 Brio Is Awesome 5/1 Cedillo A Ruiz Lorenzo SF 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          098.4518 2 Kind But She Lies(b+) 3/1 Desormeaux K J Kruljac J. Eric J 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          097.1270 7 Perfectly Julie 10/1 Ortega C Stortz Marcia W 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          096.9939 8 Medusa's Gaze 5/1 Franco G Knapp Steve 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          096.8501 4 Princess Synsky 12/1 Herrera D A Palma Hector O. 620 33.87 1.22/$1
                          095.6210 9 Twirly Girl 20/1 Espinoza J Brinkerhoff Val T 620 33.87 1.22/$1
                          095.4459 10 Big Al's Princess(b+) 7/2 Centeno A Garcia Victor L. 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          095.4245 3 Avisse 6/1 Pereira T J Ortiz. Sr. Manuel E 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          094.9674 1 Sweet Soulmate 6/1 Maldonado E A Papaprodromou George 689 34.83 1.20/$1
                          093.6956 6 Nobu 4/1 Pyfer J Callaghan Simon L 620 33.87 1.22/$1
                          Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 43.75, ROI 2.06/$1
                          Rating gap to 2nd horse -1.5482
                          [Category]Condition
                          [All Categories] Last Race Was Not OddsOn Favorite(not entry)
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 359701

                            #14
                            579MEMPHIS -580 GOLDEN STATE
                            GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in home games after a loss in the current season.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 359701

                              #15
                              NBA

                              Friday, May 21


                              Memphis @ Golden State
                              Grizzlies (39-34)
                              — Memphis won six of its last seven games SU.
                              — Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in last ten games, 2-2 in last four on road.
                              — Under is 7-1 in last eight Memphis games.
                              — Memphis subs were a combined minus-66 in Wednesday’s win.

                              Warriors (39-34)
                              — Golden State won eight of its last ten games SU.
                              — Warriors won/covered their last six home games.
                              — Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
                              — Warriors lost Wednesday despite being up 13 at the half.

                              — Teams split last eight series games.
                              — Memphis is 1-3 ATS in last four visits to SF/Oakland.
                              — Last six series games stayed under the total.

                              This is an elimination game.
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