Friday 5/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 05:15 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 5/28/21

May 28, 2021
Every Friday and Saturday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

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Belmont Park Race 9 - Post time: 5:12 ET
10-Determined Fury (3-1)

Once-promising gelding makes just his fourth career start and couldn’t have found an easier assignment in this $40,000 maiden claiming turf sprint. The C. Clement-trained 4-year-old flashed speed before weaking in a productive race in his first start off a layoff last month and should be fitter, tighter, and much more comfortable on grass. We’re expecting the son of Tale of the e Cat to on or near the lead throughout, so we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 3-1.

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Golden Gate Fields Race 7 – Post time: 4:20 PT
2-Tiger Queen (9/2)

Finally makes it to the races at age four in the maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares that is begging to be won by a fresh face. The known element isn’t much, and this daughter of the excellent speed stallion Smiling Tiger has put together an excellent series of workouts that should have her fit and ready for high percentage connections. A recent five furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 (third fastest of 47) catches the eye, so at 9/2 on the morning line she’s worth a play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 05:17 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/28/21

May 28, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Drizella

Forecast: Drizella was beaten 10 lengths when a distant runner-up to the talented Big Treat in her debut last month but was almost three lengths clear of the rest in what was a fairly decent effort under the circumstances. The daughter of Stanford seems certain to benefit from the outing and because the first-timers appear somewhat ordinary on paper let’s go with the proven element on top as a rolling exotic single for a barn that has strong stats with second-time starters.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Exalted Joy; 5-Poseidon Wrath

Forecast: Poseidon Wrath, a solid runner-up in his debut last month at Keeneland and searching for some ship-and-win money following a $50,000 claim by a sharp outfit, shows up for the same price today and seems the solid top choice in a five-runner maiden claiming main track miler. The Super Saver gelding projects to be the controlling speed under good bug girl J. Pyfer, who is not afraid to allow front-running types to show their speed. Exalted Joy drops to a realistic level, is competitive on speed figures and sports a decent work since raced. He’s guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail and appears to have found his proper level. We’ll prefer Poseidon Wrath on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Trouville; 6-Lalic; 8-Shanghai Sunrise

Forecast: Shanghai Sunrise makes her first start on grass and if she can duplicate her main track form in this starter allowance six furlong sprint she can score again after winning a similar affair here last month. Drawn comfortably outside and with enough early speed to make the running or settle into a stalking position, the M. Puype-trained filly has rising speed figures and a sharp recent workout to indicate another forward move is likely. Lalic retains F. Prat and is lightly-raced and improving while seeking her third straight score over the local lawn. Today she must pick up 8 lbs. and is catching more early speed than she had to deal with in her most recent score, but two races back she rallied from off the pace to graduate from maiden claimers so Prat can assess the pace flow today and choose his best path. Trouville, in the frame in 12 of 14 career starts, continues to impress in the a.m. and will need only slight improvement to be a legitimate threat from the quarter pole home. Toss her in somewhere.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Summer Rose

Forecast: Summer Rose stretches out for the first time (always like this angle) and projects to be on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. The daughter of Jimmy Creed has worked like a mare that will step forward considerably with the stretch out in trip and goes for a barn that has good stats with this maneuver. If she’s ever going to handle two-turns, it will most likely be in her first try, so let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Charette; 5-Clearly Gone

Forecast: Charette was claimed for $25,000 in mid-March by J. Sadler and was subsequently a stewards’ scratch when re-entered for that same price earlier this month (it wasn’t a physical problem, she worked the next day). In what we’ll take as a sign of confidence, the veteran is re-entered on the raise for a barn that has strong stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, and she gets a serious break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy C. Ortega. A healthy recent series of a.m. drills catches the eye, and from the rail she’s assured of a good ground-saving trip, so let’s go with the daughter of Hard Spun in the win pool and as the main push in rolling exotic play. For protection, we’ll also include on a ticket or two Clearly Gone, a genuine and consistent performer. She switches to U. Rispoli and generally produces a good late kick that makes her a strong threat despite the class hike.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Katla; 6-Class Code

Forecast: Trainer C. Gaines has two major players in this $20,000 maiden claiming main track miler (a split of the fourth race) for fillies and mares. Katla, runner-up under these conditions last month and today getting a weight break with the switch to J. Pyfer, projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead in a field without much speed. With any kind of forward move she should be capable of earning her diploma. Stable mate Class Code flashed speed sprinting before fading in her debut, but today’s stretch out and is dropping from maiden special weight to the bottom maiden claiming level, so we’ll use her as well in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:24 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Railsplitter; 2-Onenightstandards; 4-Hammering Lemon

Forecast: This looks like a fairly wide-open starter optional claiming turf miler requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Onenightstandards, claimed at Keeneland for $20,000 two races back, earned a career top speed figure in his West Coast debut when third vs. similar at this distance on the main track last month. A winner of his only prior grass outing last summer at Ellis Park, the M. Glatt-trained colts switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider J. J. Hernandez and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip from his comfortable two-hole post position. Hammering Lemon shows up in a seller for the first time – a long overdue drop in class – and at this level the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be quite competitive. He’s a fit on numbers, had a nice workout six days ago, and could find himself as the controlling speed if his connections opt for that game plan. O’Neill’s other entrant, Railsplitter, backs up from a mile, lands the rail, and should be prominent throughout in his first start since joining this stable. Runner-up at this level in a nine-furlong affair last month, the son of Bodemeister appears to lack a winning punch (he’s one-for-14 in his career and three times second from five starts over this course) but in an open fray has to be considered a contender.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:54 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Rebel War; 6-I Am Allthatyourare; 8-Eel Point

Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair, this one a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming dash for older horses. Eel Point is most effective as a late-running sprinter and with the shortening in trip and the drop in class to below his claim level, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding may have found his friends. The Into Mischief gelding will need some help up front but with a decent pace to chase and clear sailing through the lane he might be able to produce a winning late kick. I Am Allthatyourare was overmatched in a starter’s $50,000 affair on grass last time out but a repeat of his good runner-up effort two runs back at this level makes him a prime contender. The son of Tale of the Cat has won on the lead and from a stalking position so R. Gonzalez can judge the pace flow and adjust his strategy. Rebel War makes his third start off a long layoff, and it should be his best in the current form cycle. Shortening to six furlongs may help him stick around longer and with a prior win over the local main track and speed figures that fit the V. Brinkerhoff-trained gelding figures strongly in the fray. Toss him in on a ticket or two.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 05:19 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #3

#7 Roses and Candy	She occasionally finishes with some energy, and there is enough early burn in here to think that maybe she can take advantage of some tiring speed late at a price. Thinking maybe she can outfinish some of those who beat her last out.
#6 Lalic	No doubt she's the one to beat after a pair of solid wins, including one at this level in her first try against winners. I've been impressed so far, but I can't see taking something like the 8/5 ML price here.
#5 Trouville	No real opinion beyond the top two, but she has been a reliable type capable of landing slices at this level. She's got to turn the tables on Lalic if she's going to win this.
Race Summary	Roses and Candy was no match for Lalic last time out, and she might get a better trip from a touch further off the pace today. The price should be playable to try and get her in the picture with the likely chalk.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#2 Onenightstandards	That was a solid try when stepping up off the claim, and the only career turf try produced a win at Ellis. His recent form has been really good since adding Lasix, and a tactical trip should be in store.
#4 Hammering Lemon	His form is inconsistent, but his best stuff would keep him in the mix with these. Still, I wouldn't want him as the chalk like the 5/2 ML indicates he may be.
#8 Racetrackers	Blinkers go on today, and he's bringing better form into this second route try than the first time he went two turns. I'd want him on the tickets.
Race Summary	Onenightstandards has taken a couple of really nice steps in the right direction since getting Lasix, and he looks like a good fit with this bunch while moving back to the grass.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#7 Crooked Finger Ray	He might get the right kind of trip from just behind the speed, and I like that the new barn brings him back in a really reasonable spot on the hike.
#8 Eel Point	Dropper should appreciate the class relief while getting back around one turn, but I worry he's overbet with this group that offers some reasonable alternatives.
#4 Promise Nothing	Considered putting her on top, but the blinkers coming off gave a little concern as it might leave her racing from a bit further off the splits than is ideal in this one.
Race Summary	Crooked Finger Ray should be able to work out a really good run here as he makes his first start for the new team. Something like his last would give him a chance with this tougher group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 05:20 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#4 RON BAKARDI	Best race fits better with this bunch, good value play.
#1 NORTHERN SPORTSMAN	Has speed and rail, earned top recent fig in defeat last out.
#7 THOUGHTYOUDLIKEIT	Wired similar types two back, interesting choice by Napolitano.
Race Summary	Ron Bakardi, no factor in a pair of sub-1:52 races in May, had a win and a late-closing third in two prior starts that should better reflect today's $10,000 claimer. Play a 1-4-7 exacta box.

Freehold - Race #1

#1 DIABOLICAL SPIN	Poor record could turn better with projected ideal trip.
#6 SINFULLY DELICIOUS	Was cruising on lead when mishap occurred at Monticello two back.
#2 DEVIOUS DELIGHT	Finished in the money in half of 12 starts this year.
Race Summary	Diabolical Spin made middle moves as the pace slowed in 3 of his last 5 starts, finishing second once. He could sustain a winning rally from the rail with a livlier pace flow expected. Play a 1 with 2,6 with ALL trifecta.

Meadowlands - Race #9

#2 LINDYSMUSCLEMANIA	Monster performance in 3-year-old debut, don't expect 2-1.
#7 CUATRO DE JULIO	Showed versatility but rally was only good for second at odds-on.
#4 LOCATELLI	Validated strong comeback with wire-to-wire victory.
Race Summary	Lindy's Musclemania swept past 5-to-2 pace setter Really Fast with ease, then accelerated in early stretch to win his seasonal debut in a sizzling 1:51.4. Can't go beyond today's Best Bet in the New Jersey Sire Stakes final.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 05:21 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#4 Lavi	Looks for his third straight win and beat a higher level last time; was claimed two races back and it's so far, so good for the Barboza barn.
#2 Free to Fly	Won five straight before settling for second last time out; has won 6 of 13 over the strip and always needs to be taken seriously.
#3 Bimini	Goes for his third straight and has taken 3 of his last 4; turns back in distance off a win.
Race Summary	Lavi has tactical speed and responds when ask at any point; has taken 4 of her last 6 and was a winner in fast time last out.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#1 Crea's Bklyn Law	Moved earlier than usual last time and didn't have a lot of punch despite holding second at the end; does well following a fast pace and can strike with a well-timed move.
#6 Scar	Has a good cruising speed just off the pace and usually puts himself somewhere in the hunt;
#3 Wandering West	Was third vs. similar in his first at GP and could improve in his return; in decent form.
Race Summary	Crea's Bklyn Law moved into contention early last time and couldn't catch a loose leader; gets a better pace scenario here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#4 Extravagant Rosie	Much-improved lately at Tampa and lost by a nose in a allowance race last out; can stalk and make her move when asked.
#1 Una Luna	Good in her last three and usually finishes with interest; would be no surprise here.
#3 Fuddled	Fast mare gets her first try at two turns and can be a strong player from the outset.
Race Summary	Extravagant Rosie ran very well at Tampa and can bring that success to Gulfstream; right there throughout.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:13 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent mimimum wager $1 Pick Four
Maiden Claiming $16,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $7,920 • Post: 7:49P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PORTATE BIEN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. SINGLE ME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface .
6	PORTATE BIEN	8/5	8/5
4	SINGLE ME	3/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BDR MS CORONA	1	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	ANOTHER EXCELLER	3	2/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	SINGLE ME	4	3/1	Average	79	53	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	PORTATE BIEN	6	8/5	Average	79	77	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: HEZA PRECIOUS ROGUE (20/1) [Jockey: Lozano Ruben - Trainer: Zamudio Valentin A], WILL HE FLY (10/1) [Jockey: Herrera Diego A - Trainer: DeAlba Cesar], THATS DA ONE (10/1) [Jockey: Ayala Jesus Rios - Trainer: Diaz Lindolfo].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:14 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunray Park

Sunray Park - Race 10	$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 5:51P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LATIGO RIO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LATIGO RIO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TIZ WAY COOL: Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. OUT ON SATURDAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figu re at the distance/surface.
5	LATIGO RIO	5/2	4/1
10	TIZ WAY COOL	4/1	9/2
6	OUT ON SATURDAY	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LATIGO RIO	5	5/2	Front-runner	79	82	84.8	73.8	67.8
6	OUT ON SATURDAY	6	8/1	Front-runner	73	69	77.5	69.2	57.2
10	TIZ WAY COOL	10	4/1	Front-runner	84	81	73.2	71.6	65.6
4	MEMORY TAKER	4	20/1	Front-runner	77	75	66.0	61.4	48.9
7	FLICKERING LIGHT	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	71	71.0	64.6	55.1
8	SAN GIORGIO	8	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	72	40.3	64.2	57.7
1	MCCLASSIC	1	7/2	Trailer	76	65	12.5	47.1	34.1
9	LORD CHARLES	9	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	77	47.3	59.4	49.4
3	EYE OF THE HUNTER	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	68	41.3	56.2	43.7
11	BUDDY P.	11	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	60	38.0	48.6	26.6
2	JEN'S BIG O	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	69	28.9	58.2	43.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:15 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Monmouth Park - Race #3 - Post: 6:00pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $62,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#8 ALTA VELOCITA (ML=4/1)
#6 TAKEITTOCOMITTEE (ML=5/1)
#2 ASHLEY'S HOPE (ML=8/1)

ALTA VELOCITA - Lets try to beat the chalk with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. This mare should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last race on April 24th. Simoff gets a break on this thoroughbred carrying 5 lbs less than last out. This should help right here. This mare garnered a good speed rating of 68 in her last event. That speed figure should be good enough to win this time around. TAKEITTOCOMITTEE - Comes out of a last affair against 'open' company on November 11th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. ASHLEY'S HOPE - Faced tougher last race out at Laurel. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. This mare faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Last time out, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Laurel. Expect better in today's race. Mount didn't land in the money in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the lane. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 YOUR PAL (ML=5/2), #3 JERSEY JEWEL (ML=3/1), #4 WICKED JANE (ML=6/1),

YOUR PAL - This racer has no victories at Monmouth Park. JERSEY JEWEL - This filly hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance affairs. Not easy to play her in this contest. Will probably be directed to pay some respect to her elders today. The effort in the last race on Aug 29th probably won't hold up against stronger opponents when they turn for home. WICKED JANE - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this filly finished sixth. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this mount as a possibly overvalued contestant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 ALTA VELOCITA to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:15 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horsemen's Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 46

DAZZLING FALLS S. - FOR CERTIFIED NEBRASKA-BREDS, THREE YEAR OLDS. PURSE $20,000-ADDED NO NOMINATION FEE. WITH $50 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $50 TO START. WITH $20,000 ADDED OF WHICH 60% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH. ADDITIONALLY ALL REMAINING FINISHERS TO RECEIVE $450 EACH. WEIGHTS:

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 KAMIKAZE JUDGE 2/1
# 4 B T'S BAD BOY 7/2
# 3 LITTLE BITOTHUNDER 4/1

My pick in this race is KAMIKAZE JUDGE. This gelding must be given a chance just off the earnings per start in dirt route events alone. Have to believe this racer will make a good impression again this time out. B T'S BAD BOY - He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. I like the jock on this gelding - very good chance to win the contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:17 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2021 RUIDOSO QUARTER HORSE FUTURITY. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. ALL HORSES MUST ENTER FOR THE TRIALS ON FRIDAY MAY 21, 2021 BY 10:00 A. M. AND PAY THE $1,200 ENTRY FEE IF THEY ARE TO RUN IN THE TRIALS. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $30,000 WILL BE ACCEPTED AT TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS. THOSE WHO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 FAVORITE WILD GIRL 9/2
# 4 CORINA STONE 10/1
# 2 SWEET ANNE 8/1

FAVORITE WILD GIRL is my choice. Should be worth a bet based on the sire's (Favorite Cartel) offspring very good win rate - 17 percent. This filly could improve on Lasix. CORINA STONE - Sire is so important in baby races and this one's babies have fared well while winning at a 16 percent clip. Fits in well here based on Wood's strong results with 2 year olds recently. Very good rider and trainer combo winning 17 percent of their races working together. SWEET ANNE - Has to be carefully examined as Soto has been among the strongest trainers with two-year olds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:17 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Stronach 5 - Race #1 - Post: 4:47pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#15 ROHRBACHER (ML=5/1)
#13 ITGOT GRANDMA (ML=20/1)
#8 OTHER THINGS EQUAL (ML=3/1)
#11 KIKINBOY (ML=15/1)

ROHRBACHER - This gelding is almost always in the top three. Gelding's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a vacation. This thoroughbred has shown the power to win on different racing tracks. Making the move from Charles Town for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. ITGOT GRANDMA - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter trip and should enhance his likelihood of winning. OTHER THINGS EQUAL - Ness is great in grass routes. This horse should have no rationalizations if he doesn't win. This gelding is in good physical condition. Ran fourth on May 9th. KIKINBOY - Numerous positive 'vibrations' joined to this pony and his brain trust.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 GEARHEAD (ML=8/5), #10 MY MAN POTS N PANS (ML=7/2), #14 PROJECTED (GB) (ML=4/1),

GEARHEAD - Speed figures of 96/93/82 are in motion on a downward course. MY MAN POTS N PANS - Difficult to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. PROJECTED (GB) - Doesn't look to have enough positive aspects to warrant the reward.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #15 ROHRBACHER on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 12:18 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

05/28/21, CD, Race 8, 4.22 ET
05/28/21,CD,8,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $102,000 (includes up to $38,200 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $75,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of $24,600 At A Mile Or Over Since March 28 Allowed 2 lbs. $21,000 At A Mile Or Over Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $75,000 (Races Where Entered For $60,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
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Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Marion Francis	6/1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.	JTSEL	483	29.40	1.19/$1
097.3377	12	Fairchild	10/1	Beschizza A	Casse Mark E.	FC	483	29.40	1.19/$1
096.3992	1	Rookery	10/1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Catalano Wayne M.		455	23.74	1.17/$1
095.8982	1A	Malloy	10/1	Leparoux J R	Catalano Wayne M.	W	483	29.40	1.19/$1
095.7087	5	Mucho Macho Momma	4/1	Gaffalione T	Stewart Dallas		483	29.40	1.19/$1
095.2240	13	Trumpet Lilly	6/1	Esquivel E	Contreras Cipriano		483	29.40	1.19/$1
094.7251	3	Another Woman	5/1	Garcia M	Mott William I.		483	29.40	1.19/$1
094.6262	6	Battle Bling	6/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		483	29.40	1.19/$1
094.0406	9	Hindsight	15/1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.		483	29.40	1.19/$1
093.4648	10	Code Name Kate	8/1	Murrill M	Hartman Chris A.		483	29.40	1.19/$1
092.9492	11	Lisa's Legacy	20/1	Mena M	Hubley Mark		483	29.40	1.19/$1
092.0835	2	Dana's Beauty	15/1	Talamo J	Maker Michael J.		455	23.74	1.17/$1
091.3002	8	Kind Ways	6/1	Leparoux J R	McGaughey III Claude R		483	29.40	1.19/$1
090.7442	4	Three Tipsy Chix	15/1	Van Dyke D	Wilkes Ian R.		483	29.40	1.19/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 21.33, ROI 0.81/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.6623
[Category]Condition
[All Categories] Last Race (Sprint Or Route) Same As Today

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 01:50 PM

901CINCINNATI -902 CHICAGO CUBS
CINCINNATI is 8-22 SU (-18.1 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

903COLORADO -904 PITTSBURGH
COLORADO is 6-15 SU (-14.4 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

905MILWAUKEE -906 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 88-62 SU (19.8 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

907ATLANTA -908 NY METS
ATLANTA is 25-40 SU (-19 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

909ST LOUIS -910 ARIZONA
ST LOUIS are 15-5 SU (12.3 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

911SAN FRANCISCO -912 LA DODGERS
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-16 SU (14.8 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

913TORONTO -914 CLEVELAND
TORONTO is 11-19 SU (-12.2 Units) vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse in the current season.

915NY YANKEES -916 DETROIT
NY YANKEES are 10-22 SU (-15.6 Units) in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

917KANSAS CITY -918 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 4-19 SU (-18.9 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the current season.

919BALTIMORE -920 CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX is 8-2 SU (8.7 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-28-2021, 01:50 PM

MLB

Friday, May 28

NL games
Cincinnati (22-26) @ Cubs (27-22)
— Gutierrez is making his MLB debut.
— He is 2-0, 2.65 in three AAA starts this year.

— Cincinnati is 5-9 in its last 14 games.
— Reds are 9-5 in last 14 road games.
— Under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 11-48
— record in first 5 innings: 17-24-7

— Alzolay is 1-2, 3.92 in his last four starts.
— Cubs are 3-5 in his starts.
— over 4-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-3
— He is 0-0, 5.79 in 2 games (1 start) vs Cincinnati.

— Cubs won nine of their last 11 games.
— Chicago is 8-2 in last ten home games.
— Under is 12-6 in their last 18 games.
— scored run in first inning: 17-49
— record in first 5 innings: 23-18-8

Colorado (19-32) @ Pittsburgh (18-31)
— Gray is 0-2, 7.27 in his last three starts.
— Rockies are 5-5 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-3-2
— He is 1-1, 7.78 in four starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Colorado lost its last three games.
— Rockies are 16-12 at home, 3-20 on road.
— under 4-1-1 last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 16-51
— record in first 5 innings: 20-22-9

— Keller is 0-3, 9.45 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 3-6 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-9
— record in first 5 innings: 2-5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Colorado.

— Pirates lost 20 of their last 26 games.
— Pittsburgh lost 11 of its last 14 home games.
— under 3-1-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 12-49
— record in first 5 innings: 14-27-8

Milwaukee (25-25) @ Washington (21-25)
— Anderson is 0-1, 4.63 in his last three starts.
— Milwaukee is 4-3 in his starts.
— under 4-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4
— He gave up 7 runs in five IP, in his one start vs Washington.

— Brewers lost 15 of their last 23 games.
— Milwaukee is 4-8 in its last 12 road games.
— over 7-4-1 last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 11-50
— record in first 5 innings: 19-20-11

— Lester is 0-2, 5.33 in five starts.
— Washington is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 5-4, 3.09 in 13 starts vs Milwaukee

— Washington won five of its last eight games.
— Nationals are 5-2 in last seven home games.
— under 11-2 last 13 home games
— scored run in first inning: 12-46
— record in first 5 innings: 17-19-10

Atlanta (24-25) @ Mets (24-20)
— Anderson is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 7-2 in his starts.
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He gave up 3 runs in 4.2 IP, in his one start vs New York.

— Braves won five of their last seven games overall.
— Atlanta is 6-2 in its last eight road games.
— under is 6-3 in last nine road games.
— scored run in first inning: 18-49
— record in first 5 innings: 26-17-6

— Walker is 3-0, 1.80 in his last five starts.
— Mets are 7-1 in his starts.
— under 5-3
— allowed run in first inning: 0-8
— record in first 5 innings: 6-1-1
— He is 0-0, 1.80 in three starts vs Atlanta.

— Mets won their last three games.
— Mets won seven of their last nine home games.
— Under 14-3-2 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-44
— record in first 5 innings: 20-18-6

St Louis (28-22) @ Arizona (18-33)
— Oviedo is 0-2, 8.18 in three starts.
— Cardinals are 0-3 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Arizona.

— Cardinals are 5-4 in their last nine games.
— St Louis is 3-6 in its last nine road games.
— five of last six games stayed under.
— scored run in first inning: 15-50
— record in first 5 innings: 23-17-10

— Bumgarner is 2-1, 3.78 in three home starts.
— Arizona is 4-6 in his starts.
— over 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 4-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-1
— He is 4-5, 5.04 in 12 starts vs St Louis.

— Arizona lost 11 in row, 21 of its last 25 games.
— Arizona lost seven of its last eight home games.
— under 9-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-51
— record in first 5 innings: 21-26-4

San Francisco (30-20) @ Dodgers (31-19)
— DeSclafani is 2-1, 2.45 in six road starts.
— Giants are 6-4 in his starts
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 2-10
— record in first 5 innings: 6-3-1
— He gave up 10 runs in 2.1 IP vs LA on Sunday.

— Giants lost four of their last six games.
— Giants are 8-3 in last 11 road games.
— Under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 15-50
— record in first 5 innings: 27-16-7

— Buehler is 2-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 6-3 in his starts
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-3
— He is 5-0, 2.68 in 8 games (6 starts) vs San Francisco.

— Dodgers won 13 of their last 15 games.
— Dodgers are 10-1 in last 11 home games.
— under 8-4 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 11-50
— record in first 5 innings: 27-16-7

AL games
Bronx (29-21) @ Detroit (19-31)
— Cole is 4-1, 1.80 in his last six starts.
— New York is 6-4 in his starts.
— under 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-10
— record in first 5 innings: 7-1-2
— He is 6-1, 1.97 in eight starts vs Detroit.

— New York won seven of its last nine games.
— New York is 9-4 in its last 13 road games.
— under 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 12-50
— record in first 5 innings: 22-18-10

— Mize is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts.
— Detroit is 5-4 in his starts.
— under 8-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 5-3-1
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Detroit lost five of its last six games.
— Detroit is 6-5 in its last 11 home games.
— under 6-2-2 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 9-50
— record in first 5 innings: 10-12-3 at home

Toronto (25-24) @ Cleveland (27-21)
— Ryu is 3-0, 2.45 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 6-3 in his starts.
— under 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He gave up 2 runs in 7 IP, in his one start vs Cleveland.

— Toronto lost seven of its last nine games.
— Toronto is 12-12 on the road.
— over 18-10 last 28 games
— scored run in first inning: 16-49
— record in first 5 innings: 20-21-8

— Morgan is making his MLB debut.
— He is 0-1, 3.95 in three AAA starts this year.

— Cleveland won four of its last six games.
— Indians are 7-4 in their last 11 home games.
— over 8-5 last 13 games
— scores run in first inning: 14-46
— record in first 5 innings: 16-24-8

Kansas City (23-25) @ Minnesota (20-29)
— Bubic is 0-0, 1.64 in two starts.
— Kansas City is 2-0 in his starts.
— under 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
— He is 0-3, 8.31 in three games (2 starts) vs Minnesota.

— Royals won five of their last eight games.
— Royals are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
— under 7-2 last nine road games.
— scores run in first inning: 10-48
— record in first 5 innings: 17-23-8

— Dobnak blanked Cleveland for six IP, in his first ’21 start.
— Twins are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He is 3-0, 3.38 in four games (3 starts) vs Kansas City.

— Twins won six of their last seven games.
— Minnesota is 5-7 in its last 12 home games.
— over 21-7 last 28 games
— scores run in first inning: 16-49
— record in first 5 innings: 18-21-10

Baltimore (17-33) @ White Sox (29-19)
— Harvey is 0-4, 14.11 in his last four starts.
— Orioles are 4-6 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-1
— He is 1-1, 0.47 in four games (3 starts) vs Chicago.

— Orioles lost 10 in row, 19 of their last 23 games.
— Baltimore is 11-15 on the road, 6-18 at home.
— over is 11-3 in their last 14 games.
— scored run in first inning: 16-50
— record in first 5 innings: 17-23-10

— Keuchel is 2-0, 4.56 in his last four starts
— Chicago is 6-4 in his starts.
— over 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 6-2-2
— He is 3-2, 2.81 in eight starts vs Baltimore.

— Chicago is 4-5 in its last nine games.
— White Sox are 8-3 in last 11 home games.
— under 11-4 last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 15-49
— record in first 5 innings: 29-9-11

Texas (22-30) @ Seattle (24-27)
— Lyles is 1-1, 3.71 in his last three starts
— Texas is 5-5 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6
— He is 1-4, 6.48 in 9 games (7 starts) vs Seattle.

— Texas lost six of its last nine games.
— Texas lost its last nine road games.
— under 7-4 last 11 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 12-52
— record in first 5 innings: 17-26-9

— Sheffield is 3-0, 2.55 in his last three home starts.
— Mariners are 4-4 in his starts.
— under 4-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4
— He is 1-1, 4.29 in four games (3 starts) vs Texas.

— Seattle won three of its last four games.
— Seattle is 5-7 in its last 12 home games.
— under 9-2-1 last 12 home games
— scored run in first inning: 16-51
— record in first 5 innings: 20-25-6

Angels (22-28) @ Oakland (30-22)
— Ohtani is 0-0, 1.62 in his last three starts.
— Angels are 3-3 in his starts.
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He is 2-1, 5.54 in three starts vs Oakland.

— Halos won three of their last four games.
— Angels are 1-5 in their last six road games.
— under 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 14-50
— record in first 5 innings: 20-26-5

— Manaea is 2-0, 2.87 in his last five home starts.
— A’s are 7-3 in his starts.
— over 6-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3-3
— He is 2-4, 4.82 in 11 starts against the Angels.

— A’s split their last dozen games.
— Oakland is 5-7 in its last 12 home games.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 15-52
— record in first 5 innings: 21-19-12

Interleague games
Miami (24-26) @ Boston (29-20)
— Poteet is 2-0, 1.06 in three starts.
— Marlins are 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Boston.

— Marlins won seven of their last 11 games.
— Miami is 5-3 in their last eight road tilts.
— under 16-6-2 in their last 24 games
— scored run in first inning: 13-50
— record in first 5 innings: 18-22-10

— Perez is 2-0, 2.12 in his last three starts.
— Red Sox are 5-4 in his starts.
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-3
— He allowed 3 runs in 7 IP, in his one start vs Miami.

— Boston is 5-2 in its last seven games.
— Red Sox won four of its last six home games.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 16-50
— record in first 5 innings: 23-18-9

San Diego (32-19) @ Houston (27-22)
— Lamet has allowed one run in six IP in three starts.
— This is likely a bullpen game.
— Padres are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Padres are 19-7 in their last 26 games.
— San Diego won six of its last eight road games.
— over 13-5-1 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 14-51
— record in first 5 innings: 21-21-9

— Valdez is making his first ’21 start.
— He was 5-3, 3.57 in 11 games (10 starts) LY
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

— Astros lost four of their last five games.
— Astros won seven of their last eight home games.
— over 16-6 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 18-49
— record in first 5 innings: 25-16-8

Friday 5/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 5/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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