Monday 5/31/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 08:15 AM

Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Pick 5 Analysis

May 31, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Scioto Downs has a 15-race Memorial Day card ready to roll this evening. The 0.50 Pick 5 begins in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

3-Medoland Bosa (4-1)-Had a 2 week pause before the 1st start at ScD this season and then suffered an interference break. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 here with 2 pictures and this could be the night to capture the 1st win of 2021.
7-Mr Ds Rock (7/5)-Banked over $97K as a 3-year-old but is winless in 16 tries as a 4-year-old. Has hit the board in 5 of 9 here and this will be the 3rd local start. Miller may leave to race near the top of the stack and this is a beatable field.

Race 6

3-Friendly's Scooter (12-1)-Price shot was used hard off the gate to a quick half in last and then faded. Will need a trip but will take a swing. The 2 chalks are going to be bet and they are beatable. This could be a trip-out candidate.
5-Clemson (3-1)-Left from the rail last time and broke 9th because about 7 others left for the top. Should be in a better position tonight and will give the benefit of the doubt versus this suspect field.
6-Cantescapemydesire (2-1)-This is only the 3rd lifetime start at ScD for this 9-year-old and is winless here. This is the program chalk and could come out on top but will need a smooth trip. May leave versus this bunch and getting on the engine might be the right strategy to take the top prize.

Race 7

4-Imma Bee (9/5)-Has made it look easy versus this kind in the past 2 starts and went off at 1/9 last week. Will probably be the odds on chalk again and with a smooth journey could be posing.
7-Borntobeshameless (5-1)-Using with the thinking #2 and #4 will be wrestling for the lead and the pace will be brisk. If that comes about Sutton could find some live cover and roll down the lane at a square price.

Race 8

2-Beebeetee (9/5)-Beaten favorite raced big from the 10-hole last week to finish 3rd. Comes right back to make its 3rd ScD start of the year and was off 2 weeks before the last race. Upswing can continue and could be sitting on a big try.
3-Nuzzle Loader (12-1)-Left to get on the point and that was a more aggressive effort last week after missing a start. Could leave again and get an up-close seat which will lead to a cozy trip at long odds.
10-Velocity Chip Rock (4-1)-Finished right behind #2 in last and now gets the 2nd tier to deal with. Raced from the back in 1st lifetime start and finished nicely. Using and hoping the price will be better than the morning line, and could get a decent seat following #2 at the start.

Race 9

4-Onedarkknight (7/2)-The 0-15 record this year is an issue. But comes off 2 solid tries and now makes the 1st start for the Luther barn who is batting 20% over the past 30 days. Smith steers tonight and that may help, could be in the hunt at a fair price.
5-Montano Pablo A (9/5)-Looks the part of the morning line chalk and has been bet in all 3 ScD starts. Makes 4th start for the Morgan barn and hasn't been able to seal the deal. Should be bet hard again, is difficult to dismiss but is only 1-24 at ScD.

0.50 Pick 5

3,7/3,5,6/4,7/2,3,10/4,5
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 08:17 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/31/21

May 31, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Coast of Roan; 4-Lure Him In; 6-Astronaut

Forecast: The Memorial Day opener is a competitive entry-level allowance event over nine furlongs on turf that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by going three-deep. Astronaut was nosed out at this level at a mile last time out and today is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat. We’re expecting the progressive son of Quality Road to inherit an ideal pace-stalking position and have every chance from there. There’s some wagering value at or near his morning line of 4-1 if you can get it. Lure Him In wanted no part of 12 furlongs on dirt when a distant third in the Tokyo City S.-G3 last month but should bounce back in this easier assignment while returning to grass. First or second in nine of 16 career starts, the son of Khozan is a one-paced grinding type and runs best when he’s not given too much to do. It will behoove K. Desormeaux to put him in the race early. Coast of Roan was scratched out of a similar race May 9 and didn’t work again until May 18 but if he fires his best shot today the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be a serious threat. All three of his career wins have been accomplished over the local lawn and U. Rispoli, who fits him well, stays aboard.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Trainer Please; 6-Brutto

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint boils down to two main players, with Brutto getting the edge on top strictly because he has the benefit of a race over the track. The son of Nyquist was beaten 13 lengths when second last month behind speed freak Flightline and has since trained quite well for B. Baffert, so a significant forward move can be expected. Trainer Please has been impressive in the a.m. leading up to his debut and if he breaks with his field the son of Orb should make a race of it. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding has done everything asked of him in his drills and could be a decent type, or maybe even more than that.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Eustace; 5-Single Me Out

Forecast: Eustace, away since early February, was scratched out of a similar turf sprint on May 7 but worked three day later and should be set for a major effort in his second start off a claim for D. Blacker. The son of Ministers Wild Cat is re-equipped with blinkers while retaining F. Prat and has worked well in recent weeks to indicate he’s ready for an improved effort. In a race that appears fairly wide open this Cal-bred gelding projects to settle in the second flight and then have his chance to wear down the leaders from the quarter pole home. Single Me Out, like Eustace pegged at 6-1 on the morning line, should be a solid fit in his first start off a $20,000 claim by R. Saldana (a solid 19% with this angle) and similar to our top pick should be doing his best work from the second flight. He owns a prior win over the course and has earned consistent recent speed figures that make him dangerous. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a volatile race without much speed signed on, making good early position mandatory for success.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Contagion; 6-Conquest Cobra

Forecast: Contagion won an allowance race over this track and distance earlier this month in his first start off the claim for P. Miller, rallying from far back with the help of the race-shape to be up close home while earning a career top speed figure. Three times victorious over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Fed Biz should be set to fire another big shot, though he’ll need some help up front to have his best chance. Conquest Cobra, with six career wins over the Santa Anita main track, certainly qualifies for “horse for course” status and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. The pace flow projects to be comfortable and this nine-year-old gelding, first or second in 19 of 50 career starts, is reunited with bug girl J. Pyfer, who has gotten good run out of him in the pat. We’ll prefer Contagion on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Burgoo Alley; 10-Speedcuber

Forecast: Speedcuber has been very impressive in workouts leading up to her debut and the daughter of War Front is bred on both sides of her pedigree to excel on grass. We suspect the R. Baltas-trained filly will be very difficult to beat if she leaves cleanly from the gate, something that’s always a bit of a concern when dealing with first time starters. Burgoo Alley displayed talent in in three non-winning starts in Ireland and makes her California debut as a first-time Lasix user for a barn that excels with European imports. A recent training track drill while in company with her high class stablemate Charmaine’s Mia caught the eye, so if the Irish-bred filly can avoid trouble from her rail draw she should make a serious run for it. We’ll prefer Speedcuber on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Thanks Mr. Eidson; 4-Speed Pass

Forecast: Here’s a second-level allowance sprint that appears a bit treacherous. We’ll try to survive and advance using the two listed above, but not with a great deal of confidence, so if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Speed Pass was somewhat disappointing when a non-threatening third of six in the Tom Fool H.-G3 at Aqueduct in early March but his narrow third place finish at this level over this track in late January makes him the one to beat. A sparingly-raced 5-year-old, the son of Bodemeister picks up F. Prat and catches a sprint field lacking in good early speed, so he should be prominent throughout and have no excuses. Thanks Mr. Eidson has two career wins and 11 seconds or thirds so he’s never really been one to count on under pressure, but the J. Bonde-trained gelding has been facing tougher foes of late and could find this group well within his range. He’ll need to break running from the rail to secure a forwardly placed trip to have his best chance.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Smooth Like Strait; 6-Whisper Not; 7-Say the Word

Forecast: Smooth Like Strait deserves top billing in this year’s edition of the Shoemaker Mile-G1 but at 4/5 on the morning line there’s not much value to be found. The M. McCarthy-trained colt lost two toughies in his last pair but always fires his best shot and this return to a flat mile should make him tough to beat in a race that projects to have comfortable early splits. Whisper Not likely will settle into a pace-stalking trip and have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Fresh from a confidence-building win in the San Francisco Mile-G3 at Golden Gate Fields last month, the English-bred colt always impresses in his a.m. drills and with another forward could give the favorite a run for his money. We’ll also toss in on a ticket or two Say The Word, a devout marathoner dropping back to a distance that logic would say is too short for him (and it probably will be). However, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding can really turn it on late and if gets any help of front he could make his presence felt from out of the clouds.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:49 PT Grade:
Single: 1-Royal Ship

Forecast: Royal Ship won the Californian S.-G2 last month in game fashion, has maintained his edge in the a.m. during the interim and should have no difficulty producing a similar effort over this classic mile and one-quarter main track trip. We’re expecting the Midshipman gelding to be forward placed while saving ground and then be able to kick home when called upon by regular pilot M. Smith. He’s our top pick but a strong case also can be made for Big ‘Cap runner-up Express Train, the 2-1 morning line favorite and likely to enjoy a soft stalking trip outside. Additionally, Country Grammar, beaten a neck by Royal Ship in the Californian in his first start since joining the B. Baffert barn, gets a favorable four pound shift in the weights compared to ‘Ship and is lightly-raced with plenty of upside. The winner likely will be one of these three and if you’d prefer to triple the race in rolling exotic play you can do so. We’ll take a stand and single Royal Ship.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:24 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Charmaine’s Mia; 9-Bodhicitta

Forecast: Charmaine’s Mia must be considered a tad suspect at this nine furlong distance but if the P. D’Amato-trained mare switches off and relaxes during the early stages of this year’s edition of the Gamely S.-G1 she should be able to extend her winning streak to four. Extremely fast on speed figures in her victories over a mile, the daughter of The Factor probably can be the controlling speed if she wants to be, and perhaps if the opportunity is presented F. Prat should take full advantage of the situation. The most dangerous of the closing types is Bodhicitta, winner of the Yellow Ribbon S.-G2 at Del Mar last summer and three times victorious over the Santa Anita turf course. Freshened since November but training like she’s fit and ready, the R. Baltas-trained mare likes to lag and then blast home, and if the Charmaine’s Mia can’t see out the trip this talented import could produce a winning late kick.
*
*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 08:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#2 Coast of Roan	Versatile type can adapt to however the pace scenario shapes up here, and he may be able to sit a touch closer to the splits with this group.
#6 Astronaut	He just missed in that first try with winners, and he has a right to be tough if he's able to bring something similar today. Price probably won't be much.
#8 Avigale	May 2019 layoff is a massive issue, but he might be enough to get an underneath slice with these. He posted a nice Churchill maiden win when adding blinkers in that last race before the layoff, and he returns as a first-time gelding.
Race Summary	Coast of Roan might be able to work out the right trip after facing a good winner last time out, and he has been knocking on the door with similar company through several recent starts.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#6 Whisper Not	He posted a good score up north last time out, and he might be the right one to beat the likely chalk here. Forward player can rate a touch if necessary.
#2 Smooth Like Strait	Should appreciate the move back to a mile after just getting stretched late going 9f in Louisville. He so far hasn't shown the ability for those huge breakout races, but he always shows up with a baseline effort good enough to win this.
#4 Restrainedvengeance	He should be a price here while trying to rally from off the splits, and he has been landing some underneath shares with softer stakes groups in recent starts.
Race Summary	Whisper Not should be right up on the splits with Smoothlikestrait, and 'Not is probably a bit better now than he was when they met here on opening day.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#4 Heywoods Beach	He's going to have to prove he classes up here, but he has looked really good in a pair of recent dirt tries. He thrived at this 10f trip with allowance company last out and is worth a look on the hike.
#7 Express Train	Reliable type was just a bit tired late when trying this trip earlier this year, but he is in really reliable form and figures to be tough again with these.
#1 Royal Ship	He posted a really nice win in the Californian last out, but I wouldn't want to take something like the 5/2 ML price to find out if he can back it up with this deeper bunch.
Race Summary	Heywoods Beach is a class riser with some intrigue after easily handling allowance company at this same 10f trip. He should be able to settle from close range and may be able to spring the upset if he can bring something like that last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 08:19 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #7

#6 Whisper Not	On his way to belong with the elites and can make a big play on that today; comes off a win in the G3 San Francisco from off the pace, and he's tended to open long leads in his races here. This is his toughest challenge but he's getting better and better the more he runs in the U.S. after beginning in Great Britain.
#2 Smooth Like Strait	Lost photo finishes in his last two races and has never lost his form; was second in the G1 Frank Kilroe here to back and yielded grudgingly in the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill last time. Can't dislike anything about him, except maybe his price on the board.
#7 Say the Word	Was up in time going 1.5 miles in Keeneland's G2 Elkhorn; he'll have to tune it up early in a big way to get to these, but there's no denying his class.
Race Summary	Whisper Not is moving into a groove and can put himself at the very top of the heap of West Coast turf stars with a win here; he seems to be able to adjust to anything he's dealt and tries hard each time out.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#1 Royal Ship	Was up in time for an exciting neck decision in the G2 Californian last out; another top-notch runner from Mandella and it was the first time he's shown speed. Mike Smith will have him close-up from the inside post.
#2 Country Grammer	Lost the photo to Royal Ship in the G2 Californian in his first start since finishing mid-pack for Chad Brown in the Travers; he's now in Bob Baffert's barn and responded well at first asking in his new environs.
#7 Express Train	Ran third in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap after running second in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap; he has given a good effort in most races and would not be a surprise here.
Race Summary	Royal Ship beat Country Grammer last time when the ladder came off a layoff, and that might help Royal Ship's price here.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#1 La Signare	Was along for third in the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland last out and has been competitive when shipping around; can close into a decent pace here.
#2 Charmaine's Mia	Has won three straight, including her last two (G2 Royal Heroine and G2 Buena Vista) at a mile; she's in for a test going nine furlongs but clearly is at the top of her game.
#6 Keeper of the Stars	Lost a photo to Whisper Not and other male rivals in the G3 San Francisco Mile; she's back to fillies and mares and won this race last year.
Race Summary	La Signare will get a legit pace to chase, and that's something she's not seen lately; she has a good move and can take serious aim late in the game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:09 AM

The Prez

Event: (957) St. Louis Cardinals at (958) Los Angeles Dodgers
Sport/League: MLB (See all free MLB picks)
Date/Time: May 31, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -180 J Flaherty (RHP), T Bauer (RHP) Must Start
957 St Louis Cardinals at 958 LA Dodgers -170, 6.5

The St. Louis Cardinals (30-23) visit Los Angeles on Memorial Day for a holiday event against the Dodgers (31-22). Skipper Dave Roberts and his squad had won 14 of 16 after defeating the San Francisco Giants in the first of their four-game weekend series. The Dodgers followed the Game 1 series victory over the Giants with three straight defeats. The Cardinals couldn't finish a road sweep of the Diamondbacks on Sunday as Arizona ended their 13-game slide with a 9-2 rout of St Louis.

The hometown Dodgers are scheduled to send Trevor Bauer (5-3, 2.07) to the Monday night hill for his 12th start of the season. Of the eleven turns that Bauer has made in 2021 only two have come against sub-standard offenses, both of those came against the Colorado Rockies. The Cardinals ace, Jack Flaherty (8-1, 2.84), will oppose Bauer.

The Free Pick for Monday finds Bauer and his teammates ending the Dodgers three-game slide and issuing the Cards a second straight defeat.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:09 AM

Bobby Ligs

Event: (513) Utah Jazz at (514) Memphis Grizzlies
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: May 31, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +5.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:09 AM

Bobby Ligs

Event: (513) Utah Jazz at (514) Memphis Grizzlies
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: May 31, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:10 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (513) Utah Jazz at (514) Memphis Grizzlies
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: May 31, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Utah Jazz -5.5 (-110)
PLAY: UTAH JAZZ -5.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:10 AM

Andy Lang

Event: (513) Utah Jazz at (514) Memphis Grizzlies
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: May 31, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Mike Conley OVER 29.5 Points Rebounds Assists
Conley has been really good this series, even with Mitchell in the lineup, and I think that speaks to just how bad of a matchups the Jazz are for Memphis on the perimeter. Conley has had 39, 39, and 42 PRA in the three games of the series, and with Mitchell back we saw Conley being left open for shots, and he cashed in going 7-10 from 3 point land. Is he going to do that every game? Of course not, but he's adding at least 14 Rebounds and Assists each game, sometimes more so he's very active, and has multiple ways to accumulate stats. We like him to go over the PRA total again.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:10 AM

Dave Cokin

Event: (959) New York Mets at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Sport/League: MLB (See all free MLB picks)
Date/Time: May 31, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: 1H Total Under 3.5 (-120) J Degrom (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
No need to extol the virtues of Jacob deGrom. He's the best pitcher in the game and his stats for the current season are pretty ridiculous. But as is often the case, he might not get much run support tonight. Merrill Kelly has been really solid at home for the Diamondbacks, with a better than average 3.00 ERA. He faces a Mets lineup that has been pretty terrible offensively vs righties on the road, with a subpar 75 wRC+ for the season. I like the two righties to do well here and will fire on the F5 Under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:11 AM

Tony Mejia

Event: (225629) Armenia at (225630) Croatia
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks)
Date/Time: June 1, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Croatia -2.0 (+110)
Croatia will defeat Armenia by multiple goals in this matchup. Look for a 3-goal victory.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:14 AM

Trace Adams

Since the Wizards have not been able to slow down the Sixers - 125.6 points per game in this series! - let's go ahead and play what could well be the last game of this opening round series between Philly and Washington to land Over the posted total on Monday night.

Philadelphia and Washington have combined to land Over the total in 2 of the 3 games so far and the 76ers are now on a 4-1 Over run their last 5 games dating back to the regular season.

The Wizards have now played 3 of their 4 games in the postseason Over the posted price and 3 of their last 5 played against the Sixers have also landed Over the posted price.

With elimination now officially staring the Wizards in the mirror, look for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to go down swinging - and slinging as the points add up to an Over this Monday night in Game Four.

2* PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:15 AM

Jay McNeil

All 3 of their series games played have landed Over the total, so let's stick with that Over trend on Monday night at the FedEx Forum as the Jazz and Grizzlies land Over the total once again.

Utah did close the regular season with 3 straight games that landed Under the total, but remember that the Jazz played their final 16 regular season affairs without the services of Donovan Mitchell who was sidelined with an ankle injury. Even so, Utah is on a 7-3 Over run their last 10 games played and their last 6 playoff games in which they have been installed as the favorite have seen them land Over the total.

Memphis has played Over in their last 4 games and in this series against the Jazz, the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 8 meetings dating back to the 2019 season.

Right now both teams have been scoring plenty of points, so instead of looking for a game in which the defense just dominates, let's ride the Over one more time in this Utah-Memphis series.

2* UTAH-MEMPHIS OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-31-2021, 11:16 AM

Gus Augustine

My complimentary winner is the Baltimore Orioles catching the money against the Minnesota Twins in a matinee showdown at Camden Yards.

I know the Twins hand the ball to Jose Berrios, who has allowed four or fewer runs in each of his 10 starts this season - including his 5 2/3-inning outing against Baltimore in his last appearance on the mound, but the Orioles will be out for revenge specifically because of that game.

Berrios has only faced one other team in a return game, that being Oakland. He lost the first meeting, in Oakland, after a stellar performance in allowing one run on four hits in five innings. But in the second meeting, at home, he took a no-decision after being pelted for four runs on eight hits over seven innings.

Last week will be fresh in the Orioles' minds, and this being a holiday matinee at home, they'll bring their bats with a little vengeance for this one.

Baltimore starter Jorge López is striking out a batter per inning, and is long overdue for a dominating performance after losing three straight starts, and four straight decisions dating back to mid-April.

Lopez, who is 1-6 with a 5.80 ERA this season, will be out for revenge after losing to the Twins in Minnesota last week, when he turned in a quality start by allowing three runs on four hits in six innings.

Play the big home dog here, as Baltimore gets it done.

1* ORIOLES