Sunday 6/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 07:54 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 6, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 14-race card slated with features involving 3-year-old Illinois bred trotters. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

2-Ryans Ambassador (7/5)-Program chalk is only 1-20 at Haw and 4 for 38 lifetime so the 7/5 price isn't a bargain but does fit well with this crew. Drops to a better level and Wilfong should have the 4-year-old in striking range at the top of lane.
6-Final Prize (4-1)-Gets class and post relief plus a positive driver change. So, there's a lot to like and this 4-year-old should be in the hunt. Ridge Warren could work a stalking trip to capture the 2nd win in 8 tries in Stickney.

Race 12

1-Mayor Virgin (9/5)-Winner of 2 straight steps-up but is in a spot to race near the top of the stack and that has worked well in previous starts. This barn has done well over the last month and Leonard should give the 3-year-old a chance to win again.
2-Fox Valley Sampson (3-1)-This is a risky play, has broken stride in 6 of the last 9 starts. Does have 1 win in 2 Haw races and has the speed to be a player if minds its manners.
7-Everychanceitake (9/2)-Draws post 7 for the 2nd consecutive time and didn't have the easiest of trips last week but almost caught #1. If Husted can work a more efficient journey this 3-year-old should offer a square price.

Race 13

4-Mr No Fear (3-1)-Not loving the 3-1 price on a horse that doesn't pass anyone down the lane. But draws well, and gets a ++ driver's change. Wilfong could make a difference and help this 3-year-old break his maiden.
5-Born Desire (5-1)-Three-year-old 1st time starter had a nice qualifier at Haw on 5-29. Took the lead and didn't look back and paced the back half in 58.3. Could win right out of the box and should offer a solid price.
9-Fox Valley Lynyrd (8-1)-This is a 4-year-old making its debut and had a good qualifier on 5-22. Raced in 156.3 and came the back half in 55.2. Not sure the wrapper will come off from post 9 but best to respect. Kept rolling in the qualifier and went by others down the lane.

Race 14

3-Countercurrency (9/5)-Comes off 2 sharp efforts and now Wilfong steers which shouldn't hurt chances. Closed in a sizzling 26.3 to cash a 2nd place check and will look for another strong effort with a better pilot in the bike.
5-Sweet But Psycho (7/2)-Left quickly in the last 2 starts to get the lead. That worked against easier and not at this class. Best chance tonight might be to enjoy a cozy pocket ride behind the morning line choice and then take a swing down the lane.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,6/1,2,7/4,5,9/3,5
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 07:55 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 6/6/21

June 6, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-One Flew South; 2-Evening Sun; 3-I Will Not

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in the Sunday opener, a first-level allowance turf sprint for older horses. One Flew South crushed a starter’s allowance field over the local lawn last month with a career-equaling speed figure and with a similar effort today he’ll be hard to beat right back. The son of Giant’s Causeway projects to settle into a good ground-saving, stalking position and the kick home when called upon. I Will Not exits a fast dirt sprint and will appreciate this return to turf. Highly-competitive on pure numbers and with a good stalking style, the D. O’Neill-trained son of Square Eddie is a major player at 9/2 on the morning line. European shipper Evening Sun has Timeform ratings that make him a fit at this level and a work tab that should have him fit and ready for a big effort in his U.S. debut. He’s a first-time Lasix, first-time gelding for J. Mullins and lands top grass rider U. Rispoli, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gotta Be Lucky; 3-You Wanna Ear Rip

Forecast: You Wanna Ear Rip stretches out again and a repeat of her good runner-up effort over this track and distance two runs back should be good enough to handle this modest $10,000 claiming group of older fillies and mares. Gotta Be Lucky adds blinkers and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics from the rail. Fourth in the same race our top pick exits, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit has finished first or second in six of 12 starts over the Santa Anita main track and should produce her usual honest effort again.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Frazzled

Forecast: Each of the five entrants has credentials to win this starter optional claiming turf event for sophomore fillies but rather than “buy” the race we’ll take a stand and single Frazzled. First off the claim for R. Baltas, the daughter of Outwork can be expected to produce a significant forward move for her new connections in a race that will be slowly run early and may allow her to inherit the role as the controlling speed. A sharp recent training track workout for her new connections catches the eye, so at 2-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Supersonic Flyer

Forecast: Supersonic Flyer is listed as the 2/5 morning line favorite in this six-runner maiden claiming sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. She projects to enjoy the easiest of front-running trips and though she was worn down late in a similar spot last month she has a sixteenth of a mile less to worry about and speed figures that tower over the field. In an unplayable race, she’s a no value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cinnte Winte; 3-Bellize; 4-Mongolian Mission

Forecast: Cinnte Winte makes the all-important class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming, lands the good rail, switches to U. Rispoli and is a solid fit on speed figures. She’s a legitimate 9/5 morning line favorite in this one mile turf affair for fillies and mares. Bellize, a willing fourth vs. similar last time out with a career top speed figure, should be closer to the pace today and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Mongolian Mission returns to her proper level and ran well over this course and distance when beaten a neck in her debut earlier this year. A repeat of that race today puts her in the fray at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Smoothlikebuttah; 4-Ultimate Hy

Forecast: Smoothlikebuttah switches to F. Prat, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, has worked quite well since raced and shows a prior win over this track and distance. Second at 6/5 in a similar affair in late April, she gets an ideal spot to make amends and offers value at or near her morning line of 4-1. Ultimate Hy is the likely choice and one to beat based on her grass form, but this will be her first career start on dirt. Based strictly on pedigree she shouldn’t have any issues with the main track, but we’ll just have to see. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Smoothlikebuttah due to price considerations.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Whatmakessammyrun; 3-Missy P.

Forecast: Missy P. was disappointing when having to settle for second at odds of 30 cents on the dollar behind stable mate Astute in the Angel’s Flight S. last month, but she’s trained very well since and switches to grass while taking on the boys in this year’s renewal of the Desert Code S. If she can transfer her dirt form to turf, she’s fast enough to win based purely on speed figures so we’ll give her the slight edge on top over Whatmakessammyrun, was a convincing winner over this course and distance in his West Coast debut in early May in a race that charts very well here despite the class hike. The M. Glatt-trained colt should settle in the second flight and then have dead aim from the top of the lane to the wire. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Rayray

Forecast: Rayray exits a series of much stronger allowance races and should find this starter optional claiming field well within his capabilities. The City Zip gelding has several speed figures on his resume that are more than good enough win, and in a field lacking in early speed the M. Glatt-trained 5-year-old should find himself in a good stalking position without having to be used much to get there. He also benefits from a break in the weights with the switch to J. Pyfer so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Fantail; 4-Ivy League; 5-Jazzique

Forecast: The finale is a competitive affair for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Ivy League is steadily improving for R. Mandella, having earned a career top speed figure when a respectable fourth in the Providencia S.-G3 in early April. Freshened, working well, dropping in class and shortening to a mile, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has plenty of upside and should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Fantail failed to run to her backing when a troubled sixth in her U.S. debut last month as the favorite, but we expect the R. Baltas-trained filly to leave that form behind today while stretching out to a much more suitable trip. She continues to work impressively, retains F. Prat, and figures to be prominent throughout. Jazzique was a bit rusty in her local bow in her first outing since last July when a non-threatening sixth in a recent grass sprint but seems certain to improve today in her second start off a layoff while stretching out to a more favorable distance. All three should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Ivy League.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 07:57 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Golden Gate

June 6, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Golden Gate has only one week of racing remaining after this one, meaning there are a few more chances to harvest some Late Picks Fours. Sunday’s sequence is in the normal slot of races six through nine and includes a couple of claiming races, a starter allowance and an allowance event.

Here’s a look at the suggested $75 ticket:

Race 6 (6:50 p.m. ET, starter allowance)

RESPECT THE HUSTLE is having a good year with a three of five record. Comes off a courageous score and stays on turf. POUR ON THE COLE drops out of an allowance and runs a shorter distance; gets back to good form here. SHOT OF A LIFETIME missed by a nose after setting the pace last out. Can be in close attendance throughout and turns back in distance by a sixteenth.

Race 7 (7:20 p.m. ET, claiming)

LINGUA FRANCA rallied mildly for this last out and could sustain a strong bid against this group. GRAY GEM stretches out after setting the pace in a sprint last out; has a chance to cruise on the front end and could be difficult to catch. MOONLIGHT BLUE should be able to get a perfect stalking trip just off the leader and could capture this with a well-timed move. CURRY NATION ran on for second last out and is getting closer to getting it done; can benefit from the pace. AIGLE drops to his lowest level and could wake up in this spot; should be able to show an energetic stretch run.

Race 8 (7:50 p.m. ET, allowance)
ON RAGLAN ROAD was up in time against claimers last out and gets back to the allowance ranks; tough if he runs back to that effort. CLAIM OF PASSION improved position against a slow pace last out and should get a better scenario for his late move. DESCARTES will vie for pacesetting duties and comes off a second against good company. READY SAY GO occasionally fires late and he could get the pace he needs. GAUGUIN didn’t respond in his first local spot but has several races on his form that would make him a factor here.

Race 9 (8:20 p.m. ET, claiming)
NIGHT GIG was highly impressive as he closed well and won going away in a starter allowance last out. Good in his last four and will be difficult to beat. CANNONBALL COMIN could be the one to do it as he comes in with solid form and was third at this level last out; always in the hunt.

Golden Gate Fields Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
6) #1 Respect the Hustle, #3 Pour On the Cole, #5 Shot of a Lifetime.
7) #3 Lingua Franca, #4 Gray Gem, #5 Moonlight Blue, #6 Curry Nation, #7 Aigle.
8) #2 On Raglan Road, #4 Claim of Passion, #7 Descartes, #8 Ready Say Go, #10 Gauguin.
9) #3 Night Gig, #5 Cannonball Comin.
50-cent Golden Gate Fields Late Pick 4 (races 6-9): 1-3-5 with 3-4-5-6-7 with 2-4-7-8-10 with 3-5 ($75).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 08:15 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#7 Unbridled Ethos	He'll have to fire off the layoff, and he has obviously had some issues as he makes just his 7th start here as a 6yo. Still, he chased a good winner when last seen here last June, and both of his lifetime wins came off the bench.
#3 I Will Not	His turf sprint form has been pretty reliable, and he can sit a bit closer than he did in that dirt try last time out. Think he's in the mix.
#1 One Flew South	His best turf sprint tries keep him there, but I'm not sure I want him at too short a price in this one, and I'm worried he'll be a bit overbet.
Race Summary	Unbridled Ethos has had some long layoff lines, but they have also helped produce his two career wins, and he might get a decent finishing trip today.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#1 Whatmakessammyrun	His turf sprint form stacks up well, and he just beat one of the main threats he'll face again today. Probably not much of a price, but he can be tough right back.
#4 Mohawk King	He has to turn the tables on the top choice, but he was racing off the layoff that day and presumably has some upside in this second start off the bench.
#3 Missy P.	She'll face the boys while trying the turf for the first time, but she has shown some promise through two starts and has a versatile pedigree.
Race Summary	Whatmakessammyrun might get a cozy trip while tucked inside just behind the pace, and something like that last one might be good enough.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#3 Freedom Flyer	She didn't miss by much with stakes company at Golden Gate last out, and she has some tactical pace to find a good trip right up near the splits.
#4 Ivy League	Drops out of graded company, and the filly she caught that day has been pretty special in recent starts here. Big chance on the drop.
#2 Fantail	The added ground should work in her favor here, and she seems likely to take a step forward after the comeback effort.
Race Summary	Freedom Flyer might offer a fair price with these while moving back to the grass, and she should be able to land a perfect spot close to the pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 08:16 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#3 I Will Not	Was a solid third on turf two races back and anything close to that can put him over the top.
#5 Bench Judge	Won two straight turf races then failed when switched to dirt; he's back to grass and can take it to them early. Could be difficult to beat.
#6 Goliad	Was third in the G3 Cecil B. DeMille in 2019 and hasn't raced since February 2020; has trained well for Mandella and despite the long layoff should be an important player.
Race Summary	I Will Not ran a big race the last time he was on turf and can adjust to any pace; can respond when called upon.

Santa Anita - Race #3

#1 For the Good Times	Made a bit recovery from first to second start when she drops into upper-maiden claiming company and came away with a 1.5-length win; steps up to winners and should enjoy the 1 1-8 miles.
#3 Frazzled	Was claimed for $50K by the Baltas stable last out and has been in some tough races; broke her maiden at Del Mar and fits well here.
#4 St Helena	Got a good stalking trip, took a brief lead in the stretch, then hung and finished third; right in the hunt.
Race Summary	for the Good Times can benefit from dropping back off the lead and will likely made a big move through the final quarter.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#3 Missy P.	Was second in the Angel Flight Stakes last out and makes her first turf start; her 9 1-2-length maiden win was scintillating and she'probably has too much for these.
#1 Whatmakessammyrun	Closed with a rush and was a 2 1-4-length winner last out and has been a factor in most of his races.
#6 Love My Jimmy	Has won three of his last four and has moved up in class from the first of the year; big player.
Race Summary	Missy P. turns back to six furlongs from seven furlongs and always has quality stakes experience; one to beat here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:22 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 8	Exacta
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 90 • Purse: $66,000 • Post: 6:00P
2DA PATA TRIPLE CORONA S. - GRADE 1 2DA PATA TRIPLE CORONA. GRADO I NATIVOS (3) A?OS., (M & H) 1 1/8 MILLA, $66,000.00-PESO FIJO (SIETE (7) CARRERAS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CONSOLADOR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CONSOLADOR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	CONSOLADOR	3/5	6/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CONSOLADOR	1	3/5	Front-runner	84	87	102.4	89.1	87.1
4	IMPARABLE	4	2/1	Stalker	83	75	62.5	72.1	68.1
2	BOLERISTA	2	3/1	Trailer	71	74	70.2	70.2	65.2
3	PIPA POU	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	63	70.8	57.5	50.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:23 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

Santa Anita Park - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) $0.50 Early Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 1:35P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * GOTTA BE LUCKY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). YOU WANNA EAR RIP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS YOU MOM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rat ing. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KIRSCH TRUFFLE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	GOTTA BE LUCKY	2/1	5/1
3	YOU WANNA EAR RIP	9/5	6/1
2	MISS YOU MOM	8/1	6/1
5	KIRSCH TRUFFLE	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	KIRSCH TRUFFLE	5	7/2	Stalker	66	90	63.4	52.4	45.9
1	GOTTA BE LUCKY	1	2/1	Stalker	82	61	58.0	66.4	59.9
3	YOU WANNA EAR RIP	3	9/5	Trailer	81	66	55.7	58.6	54.6
2	MISS YOU MOM	2	8/1	Trailer	84	69	44.4	63.0	58.0
4	MONGOLIAN WINDOW	4	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	68	50.8	58.2	51.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:24 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Hour Wagers - Race #3 - Post: 5:26pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $63,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#6 CASSIE BELLE (ML=4/1)
#5 JAZZIQUE (IRE) (ML=6/1)

CASSIE BELLE - Utilizing this jockey/conditioner combination is a good choice. This horse is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf number in last race at Santa Anita was tops in this group. McCarthy has a very great win percent in turf routes. This mare should be in shape and ready to win. 79-91-95 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this race. JAZZIQUE (IRE) - The jockey/conditioner tandem of McCarthy and McCarthy has a strong ROI together. Another way to identify class is earnings per race. This thoroughbred has the highest in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FANTAIL (GB) (ML=5/2), #4 IVY LEAGUE (ML=7/2), #1 HOLLYWOOD GIRL (ML=5/1),

FANTAIL (GB) - In the last race this vulnerable equine finished sixth. Doesn't look promising for her chances this time. IVY LEAGUE - In the last event this horse finished fourth. Doesn't show much potential for her chances this time around. HOLLYWOOD GIRL - This mare notched a speed figure in her last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JAZZIQUE (IRE) - I love to bet on horses which always hit the board. Couldn't ask for much more out of this one. Let's bet on her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 CASSIE BELLE to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:25 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 6, 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 6, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MARCH 6, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PRAETORIAN 2/1
# 6 DOBY 8/1
# 2 CATALOGUE 4/1

PRAETORIAN is the top bet in this race. Is worth looking at and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (84 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Has a sharp shot for this event if you like back class. This gelding gets a boost with Birzer in the saddle. DOBY - Has to be given a chance against this field displaying competitive numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 78 under similar conditions. CATALOGUE - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 85 - of his last affair. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:26 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6400 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. RAINBOW FUTURITY ELIGIBLES PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 TAKIN JACQUE 10/1
# 3 APOLITICAL MIRACLE 3/1
# 6 A FINANCIAL HERO 6/1

My selection in this event is TAKIN JACQUE and could score at a price in here. Has to be given consideration given the sire figs TrackMaster shows on this juvenile. Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. Could be right there at the finish based on decent results of the trainer with juveniles. APOLITICAL MIRACLE - Should be given a shot versus this group of horses in this race based solely on pedigree figures. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 77 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this field. A FINANCIAL HERO - Vickery has a sound win percentage of 17 in juvenile races. Should expect a much better attempt with the drop. This animal has some longshot angles going for her.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:27 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Energy Downs 307 Racing - Race #7 - Post: 4:30pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 PAYSTER (ML=5/1)
#7 A SHEEN CAT (ML=4/1)

PAYSTER - Don't look any further. This pony has my dough. Way too much early speed. I have to like this gelding's chances at the shorter distance. A SHEEN CAT - Birdrattler brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. I like to play this angle, a campaigner coming back off a nice contest within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 TORCH (ML=5/2), #6 SWAY THE RULES (ML=6/1), #8 PAPA JOE (ML=6/1),

TORCH - The event on May 23rd was versus maiden claimers. Pass on this one this time versus the tougher group. Recorded a common speed rating last time around the track in a $2,500 Maiden Claiming race on May 23rd. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. SWAY THE RULES - Today's contest is 5 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair in the last couple of months. Not the best of signs. PAPA JOE - Tough to like the downward flow (56/50/39) of speed ratings. This gelding gave a lackluster effort last time. Finished third in his most recent race with a mediocre rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PAYSTER - With the highest last speed rating of 60, this gelding looks exceptional against these thoroughbreds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 PAYSTER to win if we can get at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2021, 01:28 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

06/06/21, CD, Race 5, 2.45 ET
06/06/21,CD,5,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 CLAIMING. Purse $46,300. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over Since April 6 Allowed 3 lbs. Such A Race Since Then Allowed 5 lbs. Claiming Price $32,000 (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
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Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Luck of the Draw	7/2	Hernandez C J	Shirer Matt A.	TSFEL	366	24.59	1.20/$1
098.5414	2	Yankee Seven	8/1	Saez G	Garcia Genaro	W	366	24.59	1.20/$1
098.3763	3	Ruler of the Nile	7/2	Santana. Jr. R	Sharp Joe	J	366	24.59	1.20/$1
098.0857	1	Big Beautiful Wall(b+)	3/1	Leparoux J R	Morey William E.		585	30.77	1.11/$1
097.9498	6	Frolic More	9/2	Mena M	Hawley Wesley E.		366	24.59	1.20/$1
096.5181	5	Pepper Pike	12/1	Bejarano R	Ollier Dana	C	366	24.59	1.20/$1
096.0981	4	Lamartine (BRZ)	4/1	Bridgmohan S	Brownfield. III Claude		366	24.59	1.20/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 26.87, ROI 0.75/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.4586
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Categories] Not Morning Line Favorite(not entry)