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COLORADO @ VEGAS | 06/04 | 10:00 PM EDT
VEGAS -102
ANALYSIS: Colorado remains my Cup pick and the Avs are good enough to sweep most teams ... I simply think the Knights are too good to get swept and will win this one. They played so much better in the Game 2 loss and nearly stole it in Denver. It should be a zoo in Vegas, too, with the first allowed sellout of the season. The Golden Knights are 10-3 in their last 13 games as home underdogs.
+1705 137-87 IN LAST 224 NHL ML PICKS
+520 13-5 IN LAST 18 LV ML PICKS
+500 6-1 IN LAST 7 COL ML PICKS
2:14 PM
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 06/04 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -145
ANALYSIS: This moneyline has dropped quite a bit from its open, and I'm not sure why. Yes, Tigers pitcher Spencer Turnbull (4-2, 2.93) is having a career season, but history has shown he's nowhere near this good. Last year, he was 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA vs. the White Sox. They start lefty Dallas Keuchel (4-1, 4.53), who has been moderately disappointing. Still, Chicago's bullpen and lineup are much better and the Pale Hose have won 17 of the past 22 at home in the series.
+480 17-11 IN LAST 28 MLB PICKS
+460 7-2 IN LAST 9 CHW ML PICKS
+85 2-1 IN LAST 3 DET ML PICKS
2:09 PM
CINCINNATI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/04 | 8:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -139
ANALYSIS: What the heck happened to one-time Reds ace Luis Castillo? The right-hander has been arguably the worst starter in MLB with a 1-7 record and 7.22 ERA -- Castillo has been worth minus-1.2 wins for his team. You and I are worth zero to the Reds, so Castillo is being paid millions to be worse than us. He's 0-4 with an 8.74 ERA on the road and 0-2 with a 12.96 ERA vs. St. Louis. If the Cards' offense wasn't in a funk, I'd take them on the runline behind Kwang Hyun Kim (1-3, 3.65).
+480 17-11 IN LAST 28 MLB PICKS
+120 4-2 IN LAST 6 STL ML PICKS
2:04 PM
MILWAUKEE @ BROOKLYN | 06/05 | 7:30 PM EDT
BROOKLYN -175
ANALYSIS: In my opinion, the winner of this series wins the NBA title. This should be fantastic offensive basketball as the clubs combined to average nearly 240 points per game during the regular season. That's tied for the most between teams to meet in a playoff series in the past 50 years (see news feed). Milwaukee won the season series 2-1, but the Nets never had their entire Big 3 in any of those. I also think the season-ending injury to Bucks starting guard Donte DiVincenzo is going to really start to hurt. The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites and the Bucks have lost eight straight ATS as dogs.
+1467 71-35 IN LAST 106 NBA ML PICKS
+460 6-1 IN LAST 7 MIL ML PICKS
+258 4-1 IN LAST 5 BKN ML PICKS
1:33 PM
L.A. DODGERS @ ATLANTA | 06/04 | 7:20 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -130
ANALYSIS: Julio Urias got rocked his last start at home against the Giants allowing six earned runs after the Dodgers won his last three starts with him allowing four runs combined. The Dodgers are 8-3 behind him this season. The last time he had an off night was May 7 when the Angels tagged him for five runs, but he bounced back strong in his next start allowing one run. Ian Anderson allowed four runs in his last start. I’m on the Dodgers.
+1429 28-13-1 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS
+335 6-2 IN LAST 8 LAD ML PICKS
1:59 PM
SEATTLE @ L.A. ANGELS | 06/04 | 9:38 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: This will be the weakest lineup Shohei Ohtani has faced all season. He comes in with a 2.72 ERA. My model has Ohtani at 35 cents better than the average MLB pitcher. By season's end, he is projected to be 80 cents better. Seattle's lineup is 25th in OPS vs. right-handed pitchers. The Angels are 5-2 to the under in Ohtani's seven starts.
+749 15-7 IN LAST 22 MLB O/U PICKS
+405 5-1 IN LAST 6 LAA O/U PICKS
3:37 PM
COLORADO @ VEGAS | 06/04 | 10:00 PM EDT
VEGAS -105
ANALYSIS: The Golden Knights woke up in Game 2 and they could have easily won. They return home where they were much better all season with a full crowd behind them. Take the Knights at home.
+255 41-32 IN LAST 73 NHL ML PICKS
+320 6-2 IN LAST 8 LV ML PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 COL ML PICKS
5:24 PM
N.Y. METS @ SAN DIEGO | 06/04 | 10:10 PM EDT
OVER 7
ANALYSIS: The Mets' offense is showing signs of life, having hit .295/.350/.525 in the last five games. They are bolstered by a healthy Pete Alonso and a now-hot Francisco Lindor. The Padres' offense ranks second in the NL and that's with several key injuries through much of the early-going and a few players who haven't really gotten locked in just yet. The Mets start Joey Lucchesi and he's been better of late, but he's only been good against bad teams (Road Rockies, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Marlins) and has been bad against good teams (Home Rockies, Cubs, Cardinals, Rays). Though Padres starter Blake Snell has been great at home, he's been very inconsistent and hittable this year. His last two outings were awful. Bring on the high-scoring affair.
+270 11-8 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS
1:45 PM
L.A. DODGERS @ ATLANTA | 06/04 | 7:20 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -130
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers' bats are trending upward now with the recent return of Cody Bellinger. Meanwhile, the Braves just aren't reliable at all. They haven't been over .500 all season. If we're worried about the Dodgers being on the road, they have a better road record than the Braves have at home. On the bump, Julio Urias has been amazing on the road this season (4-1, 2.53 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 41 K, 2 BB, 32 IP). Ian Anderson has good numbers, but he has a 4.15 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his last five starts and those numbers are greatly boosted by six scoreless innings against the hapless Pirates. We don't often get odds this close to even on the Dodgers. Take 'em.
+330 3-0 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS
1:39 PM
OAKLAND @ COLORADO | 06/04 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO +120
ANALYSIS: Let's get nuts! The Rockies are 19-12 at home, so they play like a 99-win team in Coors. Jon Gray is 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home this season, too. Sure, the A's are actually much better on the road than at home this season, but they haven't been to Coors and that altitude messes with teams. Keep in the mind the Rockies are 4-22 away from home. Frankie Montas has lost three straight starts was awful in his one career Coors start. Also, the A's have been mediocre (19-18, negative run differential) since their 13-game winning streak.
Game: (971) Tampa Bay Rays at (972) Texas Rangers Date/Time: Jun 4 2021 8:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 3 units Play: Tampa Bay Rays -131 J Fleming (LHP) Must Start
Generally speaking, we’re looking to “bet on” hot teams and “fade” teams trending in the wrong direction. We have both in this matchup as the Rays get set to open up a 3 game set in Texas. Tampa has won 6 of their past 8 games and 17 of 20. Meanwhile, the Rangers have lost 9 straight, a pure “bet against” commodity right now. Josh Fleming takes the mound for the Rays sporting an ERA of 2.98 in 45.1 innings pitched. Kyle Gibson has pitched well for Texas but this team is simply unbackable right now. Take the Rays.
Line Parameter: 3 units at -135 or less, 2 units at higher than -135
Game: (959) Cincinnati Reds at (960) St. Louis Cardinals Date/Time: Jun 4 2021 8:15 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4 units Play: St. Louis Cardinals -132 L Castillo (RHP), K Kim (LHP) Must Start
One of our favorite pitchers to bet against takes the mound as the Cardinals continue their series with the Reds on Friday. Luis Castillo enters this matchup 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA. We took advantage the last time he pitched, a 10-2 loss to the Cubs. It really is remarkable that out of Castillo’s 11 starts this season, the Reds have come away victorious just 1 time. Kwang Hyun Kim is going to need to settle down and regain the form he was showing prior to his last outing. Before Kim’s last start he hadn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs all season. We’re not looking for him to throw a shutout here. He just needs to keep the game manageable and let the Saint Louis bats go to work. Take the Cardinals.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -135 or lower, 3 units at higher than -135
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