Thursday 6/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Bobby Ligs

Event: (501) Brooklyn Nets at (502) Milwaukee Bucks
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: June 17, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -6.0 (-110)

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Teddy Covers

Event: (501) Brooklyn Nets at (502) Milwaukee Bucks
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: June 17, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -6.0 (-105)
Take Milwaukee (#502)
Kevin Durant played all 48 minutes of the Nets Game 5 upset win over Milwaukee, finishing with one of the best games in NBA Playoff history. James Harden in his first game back from injury was on the floor for more than 45 minutes of action, despite his limited movement due to hamstring issues. Jeff Green, in only his second game back from injury nailed seven out of eight three point tries as the Nets rallied from 16 points down at halftime to win the game. None of those are going to repeat tonight.
Expect Giannis – the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year last year – to guard Durant for extended stretches this evening. His quote: “I want to take the challenge. Obviously, everybody’s gonna have a chance to guard him, but I would love to go into Game 6, to be able to guard him.” Playing less than 48 hours off of that type of effort, I’m not expecting Durant to be other-worldly this evening. In fact, Durant knows what’s coming tonight: “We’ve got our work cut out for us in Game 6, man. It’s going to be our toughest game of the year.”
Expect Coach Budenholzer to make adjustments here to go after Harden defensively, given his ongoing injury concerns. And don’t be shocked if Coach Nash pulls the plug on the Nets starters early if they are trailing by margin this evening, resting up for Saturday Night – if the Nets trail like Atlanta did last night, the game is over. Put it all together and we can expect Milwaukee to force a Game 7 with a comfortable victory here. Take the Bucks.

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Dave Cokin

Event: (909) Cincinnati Reds at (910) San Diego Padres
Sport/League: MLB (See all free MLB picks)
Date/Time: June 17, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: 1H Cincinnati Reds +155 W Miley (LHP), J Musgrove (RHP) Must Start
The Padres have to be thrilled to get back to San Diego after a very rough road trip. But they're in tough tonight at Petco as they face the scorching hot Reds. Cincinnati arrives with all kinds of momentum after sweeping Milwaukee and the Reds are suddenly very much back in the Central Division race, only two games out of first place. The pitching matchup is pretty close. Joe Musgrove has better base numbers than Wade Miley, but not by a lot, and Miley is .70 better in road OPS than Musgrove is at home. As for the bats, Reds slightly better on the road vs. righties than Padres at home vs. lefties and the recency offensive data favors Cincy as well. I think this game is a tossup and that indicates some beatable value on the road team at pretty hefty underdog odds. The Reds pen has been very good lately, but San Diego still has the more trustworthy relief corps. So I'll limit this to a F5 wager on the red hot Reds at a really nice price.

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Andy Lang

Event: (919) Tampa Bay Rays at (920) Seattle Mariners
Sport/League: MLB (See all free MLB picks)
Date/Time: June 17, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-110) R Hill (LHP), J Dunn (RHP) Must Start
What jumps off the page for this play is that the Mariners O/U record is 15-16-1 at home for 48.4% unders in comparison to 24-9-3 on the road which is 72%. Prior to his last start, Rich Hill allowed only 2 earned runs in the first 5 across 6 starts. He got beat up a bit in his last start, but regression was coming and we like him to get back to his dominant ways. Hill's strikeout rate has jumped this season and Seattle has a group of young hitters who like to chase pitches outside of the zone. Seattle has the lowest average this season against lefties at .221. Mariners starter Justin Dunn had allowed 2 earned runs or less in the first 5 for 5 straight games, so he's shown success in the early part of games. Dunn is holding opposing hitters to a .203 average this year, and his home ERA at 2.95 is significantly lower than his road ERA at 4.67. The Rays rely on the home run ball to score and Dunn has only allowed 6 home runs in 48+ innings. The trends point to a low total in Seattle home games, especially early…we'll play the first half under.

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1.	The Spot Player	MLB	Mets -125	1-1 (-20)	5-1 (+340)
2.	Doc's Picks	NBA	Nets +6	2-1 (+90)	3-1 (+190)
3.	Top Rank Sports Picks	MLB	Mets -125	1-2 (-155)	2-2 (+80)
4.	Insider Sports Report			2-1 (+100)	4-3 (+65)
5.	Elite Sports Picks	MLB	Astros under 9	2-0-1 (+100)	4-3 (+60)
6.	Joe Wiz			1-0 (+100)	2-2 (-20)
7.	Profit On Sports	MLB	Angels -1.5 +100	2-1 (+90)	3-4 (-120)
8.	National Sports Service	MLB	Seattle under 8.5	2-1 (+70)	2-4 (-230)
9.	The Sports Consensus	MLB	Atlanta over 9	2-1 (+90)	2-4 (-245)
10.	Primetime Sports Picks	MLB	Seattle under 8.5	2-1 (+110)	1-5 (-445)

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Jay McNeil

Let me see if I have this straight....the Bucks go into Brooklyn on Tuesday night listed as the small road favorite, promptly find themselves ahead by 16 points at the half and wind up getting outscored 71-49 in the second half as Milwaukee lost 114-108 and now they are back home favored by -5 1/2 points?!?!?!

This line does not make sense!!!

Yes, the Bucks should win this game to keep their season alive, especially when you consider the fact that Kevin Durant played ALL 48 minutes of Tuesday's game, while James Harden played 46 minutes on basically one good leg. You would think that Milwaukee should destroy this team tonight, but because Giannis Antetokounmpo cannot make either three-point shots or free throws and because year-after-year we see coach Mike Budenholzer appear to be no better than a rec-league head coach, forgive me if I doubt that the Bucks will cover this number.

Milwaukee won both Game 3 and Game 4 at home earlier in this series, but they did not cover in Game 3 as the -3 1/2 point favorites, so I will have to play against them tonight as the -5 1/2 point favorites.

Go with the Nets plus the points.

4* BROOKLYN

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Trace Adams

When it was announced that James Harden would indeed give it a go on Tuesday night, the total on the Bucks-Nets game rose from 218 1/2 points or so all the way to 222 points by closing bell.

The reality is, the Over was the winning ticket for most bettors on Tuesday as it marked the first time in 5 games the Bucks and Nets played Over the total.

I don't suspect Kevin Durant is going to go ballistic like he did on Tuesday - especially since he played each and every minute of the game - and I really don't suspect that Jeff Green is going to make 7-of-8 three-pointers like he did in that game. Therefore, I will play the Under to come through on Thursday at Fiserv Forum.

The Nets are 5-1Under for their last 6 this postseason and are 12-7 overall Under the total fort their last 19 games that date back to the regular season.

The Bucks are still on a 7-4 Under run their last 11 games played.

Let's look for the Under to punch the ticket on Thursday in Game Five.

2* BROOKLYN-MILWAUKEE UNDER

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Mitchell Newman

Thursday's comp play is on the Cubbies and the Mets to follow up last night's Over with another Over at Citi Bank Field to conclude their 3 game set.

Last night the teams combined for 9 runs and an Over.

For Chicago it was their first Over in their last 4 games, while for New York just their second Over in their last 6 games.

The pitching matchup tonight suggests an Over play as Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman will head to the hill.

Hendricks has made 13 starts this season and 9 of those 13 have landed Over the posted price.

Stroman is off a start that did land Under the total his last time out, but each of his prior 5 assignments ALL landed Over the total.

This is a very low total for a pair of pitchers that have seen more Overs when they start than Unders.

Just enough runs tonight in Queens to see the Cubs-Mets conclude with an Over.

1* CUBS-METS OVER

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Chris Jordan

Yesterday I gave you the St. Louis Cardinals as my free play and cashed in.

My free winner for tonight will be the Atlanta Braves on the run line against the Cardinals, as I believe we're looking at a pitching mismatch in this one.

Veteran Charlie Morton is struggling to provide what the Braves have needed, as he certainly has failed with the big inning. The veteran righty has allowed at least three runs in an inning in seven of his 13 starts, but tonight that doesn't come to play, as this might be just what he needs. He faces the Cardinals' top-heavy lineup that hasn't produced often. In fact, the Cards haven’t scored much at all, averaging just 3.2 runs per game over the last 15 days.

Morton should be driven to bounce back after lasting just four innings against the Miami Marlins last Friday.

The Braves will get him some run support against St. Louis starter John Gant, who has allowed 12 runs in his last 5.2 innings of work. A steadily improving Braves offense hits the ball hard at home (.793 OPS) and should plate some runs tonight.

Atlanta big.

4* BRAVES RUN LINE

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Gus Augustine

You do realize I've hit 15 of my last 19 complimentary plays after giving you the 1st period Over in Wednesday's Montreal-Vegas game on the ice, right? That's a 15-4 run and more of a reason that it being free for you to visit daily.

Tonight I'm in baseball, where I'm playing the Houston Astros against the Chicago White Sox.

Houston's Jose Urquidy is on the hill tonight, and will be looking to avenge a spotty performance on Friday, when he gave up three solo shots to the Twins. They weren't all that damaging, considering they were the only blemishes on a tough seven-inning effort.

Urquidy, who has allowed 11 homers and issued 11 walks over 62 innings this season and has five quality starts, has been rock solid at home, where he is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA, allowed just five homers, two walks and nine runs over 28 2/3 innings.

Chicago goes with Dylan Cease, who will be making his second career start against Houston and his first appearance at Minute Maid Park. And anyone who is anyone knows you do not back a young pitcher who has never thrown in that humidity. It's much different, and can be troublesome on the grip of the baseball. And with everything going on with illegal substances, I don't know if Chicago's righty will last long.

Houston is the intelligent side.

3* ASTROS

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: St Louis/Atlanta Over 9 Runs

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, THURSDAY JUNE 17, 2021
6/17 05:10 PM PT / 8:10 PM ET

MLB (915) CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS (916) HOUSTON ASTROS

Take: UNDER

Reason: The Chicago White Sox look to extend their lead in the AL Central as they play at Houston today. The Sox have a 4.5-game lead over 2nd place Cleveland. The Sox also have the best run differential in MLB with +107. The Houston Astros are in 2nd place in the NL West, 2.5-games back of the Oakland A's. The Astros have won three straight games and seven of their last 10 games. The Sox start Dylan Cease who is 5-2 on the season with a 3.37 ERA and a little worse 5.79 ERA on the road. The Astros start Jose Urquidy, who is 4-3 in his 11 starts with a 3.77 ERA and slightly better 2.83 ERA at home. Two good starters should keep this score low tonight. Your free play is on the UNDER.

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: CINCINNATI/SAN DIEGO UNDER the total of 7 runs

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Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Detroit Tigers/Los Angeles Angels over 8 1/2

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Roz Wins

ROZ Selections THURSDAY, June 17, 2021

FREE PLAY
MLB
904. Mets -1.21 (4:10 PT / 7:10 ET)