Saturday 6/19/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:41 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

June 19, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has 14 races scheduled with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. That sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Friday, Dexter Dunn had a huge night winning 7 of 14 races. Marcus Melander led the trainers with two trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Machnhope (6-1)-The last line looks worse than it was, wasn't in A+ form but couldn't make up ground even with a 53.4 back half. Comes right back, likes to race near the top of the stack and this post draw helps. Should be in the hunt throughout and could be a player at a nice price.
2-Lyons Sentinel (5/2)-Raced gamely but couldn't catch #4 in last as Bartlett probably stole a couple of quarters. Looks like a major threat and could end up in the pocket. The concern would be if breaks 3rd and has to come 1st over, but still best to respect.
4-Racine Bell (3-1)-Nice drive by Bartlett last week and draws the same post. Has hit the board in 3 of 4 starts at the Big M with 1 picture and with another sharp steer this mare could get on a winning streak.
5-Peaky Sneaky (10-1)-Tough race and this Takter trainee could be ready to step forward. The last 2 starts have been the best since arriving in town. The pace could be hot so Gingras could stalk and roll by down the lane at a price.

Race 7

6-South Beach Star (3-1)-Winner of 3 straight and 5 of 8 in 2021 will face his toughest test this year. But will give the benefit of the doubt he can make it 4 straight pictures. Has enough gate speed to be driven aggressively and be in striking range turning for home.
7-Summa Cum Laude (9/2)-Makes the 3rd start this year but qualified on Lasix on 6-5 in a 149.2 mile with a .26 last quarter. Has won 4 of 5 at M1 and could be sitting on a big try at what should be a square price.
8-Mullinax (15-1)-Cashed a 3rd place check at Buffalo on 6-9 and finished behind #2. That start followed a sick scratch and the previous race was back on 5-22. This will be the 4th start on Lasix and if Gingras keeps him close this colt could fly home.

Race 8

6-Test Of Faith (2-1)-Pelling trainee is 9 of 10 lifetime and won coming off the bench at Stga on 6-2 by >5 lengths without breaking a sweat. This is a very talented 3-year-old filly, and she would have to be off her game or get a brutal trip to not beat this field. Can't see either happening tonight.

Race 9

1-Captain Barbossa (3-1)-The Captain has started this year in fine fashion winning 3 of 5 at M1. Comes off the fastest mile this year (147.1) with Dunn between the pipes and he is back again. May not get on the point but has a pilot who will work a smooth trip and look to take another picture.
2-Ruthless Hanover (4-1)-Winner of 2 straight to start the campaign and then despite a 25.4 last quarter couldn't survive the challenge from #12. Winner in 5 of 7 Big M races could make the most of the post draw edge, then take control early on and not look back.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,2,4,5/6,7,8/6/1,2
Total Bet=$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:43 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 6/19/21

June 19, 2021

Every Friday and Saturday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

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Belmont Park Race 9 - Post time: 5:12 ET
2-Dancing Buck (9/2)

Lightly-raced gelding appears to have found his niche as a turf sprinter, and after a clever score against older foes in mid-April over the Aqueduct lawn the son of War Dancer returns to his own age group in the New York Stallion S. at seven furlongs on grass at Belmont Park. The M. Nevin-trained 3-year-old projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip and then have every chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned. At 9/2 on the morning line, he offers good value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Churchill Downs Race 10 - Post time: 5:26 ET
3-Four Graces (7/2)

High class sprinting filly launches her comeback in the Roxelana Overnight Stakes and has worked like she’s fit and ready to reproduce her best form from last year. A graded stakes winner over the Churchill Downs main track, the daughter of Majesticperfection is a versatile type that can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so this extended sprint distance should fit her perfectly. The I. Wilkes-trained filly is listed at 7/2 on the morning line and at that price looks playable in the win pool and as a rolling exotic key.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:45 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 6/19/21

June 19, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Lena’s Big Day

Forecast: Lena’s Big Day has done some excellent work in a series of main track drills leading up to her racing debut and as a daughter of Mr. Big should be most effective on grass. The 3-year-old filly has displayed good speed, the ability to close, and a lovely way of moving in her a.m. trials to indicate she may be a cut above the norm. In what certainly appears to be a below par race for older maiden state-bred distaffers, the C. Gaines-trained homebred seems the solid choice at 5/2 on the morning line, so with top rider F. Prat taking the call, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X-
Use: 4-Censorship; 5-Eda

Forecast: B. Baffert workmates Censorship and Eda will break side-by-side in this maiden special weight five furlong sprint for juvenile fillies and therein lies the race within the race. In the morning, Censorship is the quicker of the two, but Eda generally looks best late, so they’re really hard to separate, though at this abbreviated five furlong trip the former, a daughter of speed sire Munnings, may hold a slight edge over the latter, a daughter of Tonalist and therefor likely to need a bit more ground. In any cause, we’ll pass the race other than to include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tatters to Riches; 4-Texas Wedge; 7-Chasin Munny

Forecast: Chasin Munny exits a stronger race and appears capable of regaining his winning form from a cozy outside post position that should allow new jockey F. Prat to dictate his trip. Quick enough to make the lead or handy enough to settle and stalk, the son of Munnings is lightly-raced with arguably the most room to improve among the major contenders. Texas Wedge is capable of winning a race such as this on his best day, but this is a relatively quick turn around after he finished a good third in his comeback at Lone Star Park three weeks ago. First or second in 10 of 22 career starts, the P. Miller-trained gelding switches to U. Rispoli and projects to draft into a good stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Tatters to Riches hasn’t been out since December of 2018 but has trained like he’s his old self (perhaps better) and returns in a stakes race, a move that we view as a sign of confidence. Perhaps this outing is just a prep for Del Mar but at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Trainer Please; 4-Brutto

Forecast: Brutto just missed at 50 cents on the dollar when beaten a neck in a similar maiden special weight sprint last month so he may be a tad hard to trust, but an awkward start probably cost him the win so the son of Nyquist surely will be a short price to make amends today. Trainer Please, third when beaten more than four lengths in the same race Brutto exits, makes his second career start and has every right to produce a forward move and would seem the one to fear most. Preference on top goes to Brutto in a race that might be best left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Bender; 6-Subconscious; 10-Lincoln Hawk

Forecast: Lincoln Hawk made a favorable impression when rallying from far back to finish second beaten a neck in his U.S. debut sprinting on grass last month and today the Irish-bred colt stretches out to what should be a more favorable trip. The R. Baltas barn has solid stats with the sprint-to-route angle and following a recent sharp the European import looks ready to earn his diploma. Subconscious improved considerably in his second career outing when finishing an excellent runner-up in a nine furlong grass affair here last month. He has since worked well since to indicate another forward move is likely. The shortening in trip to a mile shouldn’t be an issue, and with A. Cedillo staying aboard the R. Mandella-trained son of Tapit is strictly the one to beat. Bender has been well-beaten in both of his starts but today draws the rail, switches to grass, and has looked quite good in the morning in the interim, so at 15-1 on the morning line the son of Curlin should be included somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tripoli; 2-Bold Endeavor

Forecast: Bold Endeavor was soundly beaten when runner-up at 4/5 in a 10-furlong main track affair last month, but this is a softer assignment so we’re expecting the son of Bernardini to make amends. First or second in seven of 13 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the M. Glatt-trained gelding projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and then have his chance to kick home when called upon. Tripoli makes his first career start on dirt but based on his grass pedigree it’s problematic whether he can transfer his turf form to the main track. He’s worked well dirt, but you don’t always get the same results in the afternoon. Relatively lightly-raced and in good form, the J. Sadler-trained colt is worth tossing in on a ticket or two for protection.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Adare; 3-Uncle Addouma; 8-Southern Horse

Forecast: Let’s go for a long shot in this first-level allowance turf miler for older horses. Uncle Addouma was a visually pleasing winner sprinting over the local lawn two runs back but then was given too much to do when rallying much too late last time out, finding his best stride in the final furlong to wind up seventh but beaten less than four lengths. He’s trained well since that outing, stretches out to a mile, and should be set to produce a career top effort in a field that that on paper doesn’t look all that intimating. He’s 12-1 on the morning line and we suspect he’s better than that. Adare lands the rail while stretching out again after finishing a solid third in the same race our top pick exits. From the rail the son of Medaglia d’Oro is likely to secure an ideal ground-saving trip and should have his chance to produce the last run with the switch to good turf rider J. Bravo. Southern Horse has been given a couple of runs sprinting on grass since being imported from Ireland and is another that seems certain to improve with today’s added distance. He’s faced better overseas than what he’s seeing today and based on his strong Time Form ratings is quite dangerous at his morning line of 15-1. With the switch to top grass jockey U. Rispoli, the Argentine-bred veteran is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Howbeit; 4-Palace Coup

Forecast: Howbeit is a hard-knocking sprinter with a pair of strong runner-up efforts in two recent outings vs. similar entry-level allowance competition. He had the proper style for this extended sprint trip, and with a clean break from the rail should be able to secure a comfortable, second flight, ground-saving early position. Beaten less than a length last time out while earning a career-top equaling speed figure, the M. Glatt-trained colt seems a fairly solid top pick. Palace Coup has been routing most of his career but had performed well around one turn when given the chance and with this turn back in trip the son of Bernardini could easily return to winning form. The P. D’Amato-trained colt is a strong fit on speed figures and projects to be prominent throughout. Preference on top goes to Howbeit but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Found My Ball; 2-None Above the Law

Forecast: None Above the Law has won three of his last four starts with rising speed figures and appears well-spotted to continue his outstanding recent form in this year’s edition of the Snow Chief S. a race restricted to California-bred 3-year-olds. The P. Miller-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and at this nine furlong trip should be capable of producing the last run. Found My Ball adds blinkers for the first time and from his rail post should be on or near the lead throughout. He’s been a money burner during his six race career, having failed three times as the favorite, but at this longer distance the son of Square Eddie should enjoy soft early fractions and a ground-saving trip. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:56 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Fi Fi Pharoah; 6-Eddie’s New Dream

Forecast: Eddie’s New Dream, a strong recent runner-up when facing older sprinters in her first start since November, stretches out and returns to 3-year-old only competition in this year’s edition of the Melair S., a race restricted to state-bred fillies. There’s no reason the daughter of Square Eddie won’t enjoy the trip, and a recent bullet workout since raced indicates the B. Cecil-trained sophomore should be on or near the lead throughout. Fi Fi Pharoah has winning form over the local main track around two turns and with a decent amount of pace to compliment her late running style the daughter of American Pharoah should be heard from in the final furlong. U. Rispoli stays aboard and will give her the patient ride she needs. We’ll put Eddie’s New Dream slightly on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:29 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ward ‘n Jerry; 5-Pillar Mountain

Forecast: Pillar Mountain offers a price chance as a first-off-the-claim play for R. Hess, Jr. in this year’s San Juan Capistrano S.-G3, a long-time popular classic for older stayers. The winner of his last two outings in Florida, both over a marathon trip, the Irish-bred veteran has a few decent stakes outings to go back to and with just 14 career starts on his resume may still have a bit of improvement in him. He’s worth a shot at 6-1 on the morning line. Ward ‘n Jerry, a thoroughly genuine and consistent gelding, is strong on numbers and a six time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. With regular pilot F. Prat staying aboard, the M. Puype-trained handle the trip and fight hard to the end.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:46 AM

Johnny D: Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview | Saturday, June 19, 2021

June 19, 2021 | By Johnny D
At the conclusion of a six-furlong journey over a bog created by a perpetual rain, a pair of combatants, well clear of the rest, hit the finish of the G1 Commonwealth as one with nothing between them.

Jockey Oisin Murphy, aboard once-beaten colt #3 Dragon Symbol, knew his mount had gotten the nod over #13 Campanelle, a fellow sophomore of the female variety partnered with all-time Royal Ascot leading reinsman Frankie Dettori. Murphy fist-pumped the air in elation.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on which way you punted, Murphy’s satisfying moment in the rain soon was short circuited by a sensible stewards’ decision to disqualify #3 Dragon Symbol from first to second for interference and to promote #13 Campanelle to the winning position. It’s the 13th time a US-based runner has won a Royal Ascot race and Campanelle’s trainer Wesley Ward, amazingly, has saddled 12 of those!

Not more than a half-hour later, in what racing gods gigglingly call ‘messing with the humans,’ at the conclusion of the G1 Coronation, jockey Murphy once more emphatically pumped his fist. This time, though, his celebration was above revision. #1 Alcohol Free, at 9/2 odds, had drawn well clear at the finish to emphatically capture Coronation glory from #13 Snow Lantern in second and #6 Mother Earth third.

The penultimate 2021 Royal Ascot card, at one point in danger of surrendering completely to a deluge, delivered drama, excitement, great story lines and anticipation of future races from the participants. Saturday’s card, the final one of the season, also holds anticipation, too, in the form of hope that The Queen will make an appearance.

It must be noted, The Queen has been busy. Normally, at this time of the year, she’s ‘going racing’ at Ascot, daily. Dates for the five-day meet traditionally are the first appointments booked on her annual calendar. However, in case you haven’t noticed, this and the previous year have been quite different. No kidding. Here we are, about to enter the final of the current stand and The Queen Mother has yet to make an Ascot appearance.

You can’t say all is right with the world if The Queen Mother hasn’t been to Ascot yet. In fact, let that be the barometer by which a return to normalcy will be judged: When The Queen, finally, waves to us from a horse-drawn carriage trundling down the green straightaway at Ascot, then and only then, will matters even be considered to have approached ‘normal.’

Earlier this week, because of COVID and the G7 Summit--the latter attracting dignitaries like President Joe Biden from the United States and Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia to Windsor Castle--The Queen has been otherwise engaged. However, she is expected to visit Ascot before the meet concludes. Saturday is her last chance and she has a ‘live one’ named Tactical running in the Jersey Stakes. Anyway, this year, there’ll be no procession and The Queen will need to lay low (if a Queen can even do that).

According to Vanity Fair, The Queen has, ‘…ridden in more than 260 royal processions at Royal Ascot, often accompanied by members of the royal family and driven in horse-drawn landaus.’ Any way you look at it, that last sentence contains too many mentions of ‘royals.’ Reportedly, The Queen has only missed Royal Ascot twice during her 69-year-reign, both times when she was pregnant. Of course, she also missed last year when the meeting was presented behind closed doors and we’re pretty sure she wasn’t pregnant. So, make her overall Royal Ascot attendance record 66-for-69.

I like it when The Queen shows up at Ascot. It’s cool knowing someone that important derives a similar level of enjoyment from racing as you do. It’s almost as affirming as knowing that the late Elizabeth Montgomery of “Bewitched” fame was a regular attendee at Hollywood Park.

The final day of Royal Ascot racing includes G1, G2 and G3 races. The main event is the G1 Diamond Jubilee, presented at six furlongs on a straightaway. #10 Starman is the 5-2 morning line choice with Oisin Murphy aboard for trainer Ed Walker. The 4-year-old colt has won four of five, including the G2 Duke of York Clipper Logistics last out at York. The only blemish on his resume is a poor effort in October in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over a soft Ascot course—similar to the one he might see Saturday. #5 Glen Shiel, also entered in the Jubilee, defeated him that day under Holly Doyle, who is aboard.

#2 Dream of Dreams is the 3-1 morning line second choice and starts for the all-time leading Royal Ascot trainer Sir Michael Stoute and will be accompanied by Ryan Moore. This 7-year-old won a stakes race last out but defeated just two rivals over soft going. He was well-beaten as 3-1 favorite in the common British Champions Sprint Stakes.

Murphy leads all jockeys with four Royal Ascot wins, one more than all-time Royal Ascot winning pilot Frankie Dettori. William Buick alone has two wins at the meet. The John & Thady Gosden team lead all trainer with four wins, one more than Andrew Balding and two more than William Haggas. Aidan O’Brien has had a notably frustrating week with one win, four seconds and three thirds. Godolphin top all owners with two wins and three thirds. Coolmore Partners have one win along with a host of trainers and four seconds.

We hope you’ve enjoyed racing from Royal Ascot, our observations and that juicy 10X XB Rewards Points promotion on all of your Ascot wagers through Saturday. If you haven’t registered yet, do it before you play today.

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:48 AM

Ascot Concludes Saturday

June 18, 2021 | By Johnny D

At the conclusion of a six-furlong journey over a bog created by a perpetual rain, a pair of combatants, well clear of the rest, hit the finish of the G1 Commonwealth as one with nothing between them.

Jockey Oisin Murphy, aboard once-beaten colt #3 Dragon Symbol, knew his mount had gotten the nod over #13 Campanelle, a fellow sophomore of the female variety partnered with all-time Royal Ascot leading reinsman Frankie Dettori. Murphy fist-pumped the air in elation.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on which way you punted, Murphy’s satisfying moment in the rain soon was short circuited by a sensible stewards’ decision to disqualify #3 Dragon Symbol from first to second for interference and to promote #13 Campanelle to the winning position. It’s the 13th time a US-based runner has won a Royal Ascot race and Campanelle’s trainer Wesley Ward, amazingly, has saddled 12 of those!

Not more than a half-hour later, in what racing gods gigglingly call ‘messing with the humans,’ at the conclusion of the G1 Coronation, jockey Murphy once more emphatically pumped his fist. This time, though, his celebration was above revision. #1 Alcohol Free, at 9/2 odds, had drawn well clear at the finish to emphatically capture Coronation glory from #13 Snow Lantern in second and #6 Mother Earth third.

The penultimate 2021 Royal Ascot card, at one point in danger of surrendering completely to a deluge, delivered drama, excitement, great story lines and anticipation of future races from the participants. Saturday’s card, the final one of the season, also holds anticipation, too, in the form of hope that The Queen will make an appearance.

It must be noted, The Queen has been busy. Normally, at this time of the year, she’s ‘going racing’ at Ascot, daily. Dates for the five-day meet traditionally are the first appointments booked on her annual calendar. However, in case you haven’t noticed, this and the previous year have been quite different. No kidding. Here we are, about to enter the final of the current stand and The Queen Mother has yet to make an Ascot appearance.

You can’t say all is right with the world if The Queen Mother hasn’t been to Ascot yet. In fact, let that be the barometer by which a return to normalcy will be judged: When The Queen, finally, waves to us from a horse-drawn carriage trundling down the green straightaway at Ascot, then and only then, will matters even be considered to have approached ‘normal.’

Earlier this week, because of COVID and the G7 Summit--the latter attracting dignitaries like President Joe Biden from the United States and Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia to Windsor Castle--The Queen has been otherwise engaged. However, she is expected to visit Ascot before the meet concludes. Saturday is her last chance and she has a ‘live one’ named Tactical running in the Jersey Stakes. Anyway, this year, there’ll be no procession and The Queen will need to lay low (if a Queen can even do that).

According to Vanity Fair, The Queen has, ‘…ridden in more than 260 royal processions at Royal Ascot, often accompanied by members of the royal family and driven in horse-drawn landaus.’ Any way you look at it, that last sentence contains too many mentions of ‘royals.’ Reportedly, The Queen has only missed Royal Ascot twice during her 69-year-reign, both times when she was pregnant. Of course, she also missed last year when the meeting was presented behind closed doors and we’re pretty sure she wasn’t pregnant. So, make her overall Royal Ascot attendance record 66-for-69.

I like it when The Queen shows up at Ascot. It’s cool knowing someone that important derives a similar level of enjoyment from racing as you do. It’s almost as affirming as knowing that the late Elizabeth Montgomery of “Bewitched” fame was a regular attendee at Hollywood Park.

The final day of Royal Ascot racing includes G1, G2 and G3 races. The main event is the G1 Diamond Jubilee, presented at six furlongs on a straightaway. #10 Starman is the 5-2 morning line choice with Oisin Murphy aboard for trainer Ed Walker. The 4-year-old colt has won four of five, including the G2 Duke of York Clipper Logistics last out at York. The only blemish on his resume is a poor effort in October in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over a soft Ascot course—similar to the one he might see Saturday. #5 Glen Shiel, also entered in the Jubilee, defeated him that day under Holly Doyle, who is aboard.

#2 Dream of Dreams is the 3-1 morning line second choice and starts for the all-time leading Royal Ascot trainer Sir Michael Stoute and will be accompanied by Ryan Moore. This 7-year-old won a stakes race last out but defeated just two rivals over soft going. He was well-beaten as 3-1 favorite in the common British Champions Sprint Stakes.

Murphy leads all jockeys with four Royal Ascot wins, one more than all-time Royal Ascot winning pilot Frankie Dettori. William Buick alone has two wins at the meet. The John & Thady Gosden team lead all trainer with four wins, one more than Andrew Balding and two more than William Haggas. Aidan O’Brien has had a notably frustrating week with one win, four seconds and three thirds. Godolphin top all owners with two wins and three thirds. Coolmore Partners have one win along with a host of trainers and four seconds.

We hope you’ve enjoyed racing from Royal Ascot, our observations and that juicy 10X XB Rewards Points promotion on all of your Ascot wagers through Saturday. If you haven’t registered yet, do it before you play today.

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:50 AM

Race of the Week: San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita

June 17, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$100,000 GRADE 3 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, June 19, 2021

The Lead:
Seven stakes races will be offered over closing weekend at Santa Anita for the winter-spring meeting, including a quartet on Saturday. Among those will be the turf marathon known as the San Juan Capistrano Stakes at 1-3/4 miles, which goes as Race 11 in the day's finale. After back-to-back scores in this space the past 2 weeks, let's look to triple-down on our luck.

Field Depth:
The last 2 winners of this race are back in action, ACCLIMATE (2019) and RED KING (2020), both of which also have won at the Grade 2 level. WARD 'N JERRY is a Grade 3 winner. LURE HIM IN is Grade 3-placed. The top trio have run in similar races over time and are of equal class.

Pace:
ACCLIMATE is a committed front-runner even over marathon distances and should offer no surprises stylistically. ASTRONAUT could sit in a first-over spot with WARD 'N JERRY perched in the front half of the six-pack. This should not be a fast pace for the distance.

Our Eyes:
ACCLIMATE won this race in 2019 as mentioned and also added that summer's Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap. But the now 7-year-old is 0-for-8 since then, giving way in the stretch from a mile to a mile and one-half. Trainer Phil D'Amato will try to lock down the meet training title in the final days while playing catch me if you can in the standings and in this race. He'll also have RED KING in this spot as a powerful, 1-2 punch.

RED KING won this race emphatically by 4-1/4 lengths last year as favorite WARD 'N JERRY set the pace and faded to third as the 3-5 chalk. As they re-match, look for the race shape to be much different this time with ACCLIMATE the confirmed speed and WARD 'N JERRY will have a target vs. being the target; that's quite a difference. WARD 'N JERRY carried 126 pounds last year and has in his last few starts of 2021. He gets in at 122 on Saturday under the runaway leading rider at the meet, Flavien Prat. I give him a solid chance to turn the tables on RED KING, who is 0-3 this year with finishes behind WARD 'N JERRY and ACCLIMATE.

The 'other' trio in this race includes LURE HIM IN, whose only turf win in 11 tries came for $40,000 claiming last July at Gulfstream; PILLAR MOUNTAIN, a Bob Hess Jr. uncoupled barnmate of LURE HIM IN who has won his last 2 at Gulfstream and was claimed for $35,000 by the new barn in April; and ASTRONAUT, first or second in all 4 starts on the local lawn for John Shirreffs and making his stakes debut. PILLAR MOUNTAIN and ASTRONAUT both look plausible for the exotics; the former has a strong string of late BRIS late pace figures and a run-all-day pedigree.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
WARD 'N JERRY should get a beneficial trip under Flavien Prat and is in sharp recent form.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
ASTRONAUT has the best damside distance pedigree in this field and could land a flattering, first-over, pressing trip behind ACCLIMATE. Saturday will be the class test, but the price will be right.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's try to get one of the prices underneath the headline actor. $50 exacta part-wheel WARD 'N JERRY over PILLAR MOUNTAIN and ASTRONAUT ($100).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 05:55 AM

Ascot Continues Through Saturday

June 17, 2021 | By Johnny D

Racing at the Royal Ascot meeting began Tuesday and will go through Saturday. It’s one of the most important fixtures worldwide and something yours truly appreciates annually. We hope you’ve enjoyed reading daily Royal Ascot musings this week in the blog section of the Xpressbet web site. If you’ve been following along at home, you’ve probably gathered that we’re not a certified Royal Ascot expert, but we thoroughly enjoy the show because it’s simultaneously familiar and noticeable different.

The most obvious similarity is the object of the game: Whoever gets there first wins! The most obvious difference? All races are run clockwise and on turf. By George, I think you’ve got it.

Some aspects of Royal Ascot racing are better than what we have here in the States. For example, photo finish results are determined within seconds after the race, not minutes. And actual finish photos are available and televised almost immediately.

Now, I enjoy sweating out a tight finish that might go either way as much as the next guy, but agonizing over a stretch run replay two…three…four…or five times while disputing the potential outcome with anyone within earshot seems so 70s. Horseplayers, like the accused, ought to be entitled to a speedy trial. It appears in the US Constitution, I think.

As I’ve often said, “I love visiting the UK because I almost speak the language.” For example, in the UK an umbrella is a brolly; their football is our soccer; a ‘lift’ in either place suggests a ride but, in the UK, it refers to an elevator. In racing, the word ‘declared’ has an opposite meaning depending on where you are! In the US, a ‘declared’ horse has been scratched from a race. In Europe, a ‘declared’ horse is confirmed to start in a race. Make sense.

Like in the US, Royal Ascot races are numbered according to their order on the day’s card. However, across the pond, you’d better be familiar with race post times instead of race numbers. In the US, it’s Belmont’s 4th. In ‘British,’ that translates to the Belmont 2:25. Assigning times to races instead of numbers makes a spot of sense. For example, you might tell me you absolutely love one running in the 4th at Podunk Downs on Friday. But, in order for me to make sure I don’t get shut out, I’d have to search for and note the race’s post time.

Scratches at the gate also are handled differently ‘over there.’ Because post times are important, an unruly horse holding up the start of the race will be given limited opportunities to behave. If that’s not accomplished in a reasonable timeframe, matters will proceed without them. The horse will be scratch and the field dispatched, post-haste. No taking everyone out of stalls and reconfiguring gate numbers like they do in the US. Over there it all happens quickly. Either you’re in or you’re out. One. Two. Three. Scratch. ‘And they’re off…and running without you.’

The folks at Royal Ascot had egg on faces Wednesday afternoon when the starting trigger may have been prematurely pulled for the Kensington Palace Stakes (6.10). A blindfold, used to help calm a horse while loading into the gate, was not removed from one horse’s eyes before the gates popped and the field was dispatched.

That left jockey Silvestre de Sousa scrambling to unsuccessfully remove the blindfold from his mount Stunning Beauty. If New Jersey jocks think riding without whips is dangerous, they ought to try it on the backs of blindfolded horses. de Sousa soon eased his mount and there was a 30-minute delay while stewards decided if the 7-1 shot should be declared a non-starter and money wagered on the animal refunded.

Amazingly, at 6.47 (see, they even note the time when races go ‘official’), the verdict was ‘no refunds’ as many horseplayers discovered a novel way to lose money. Apparently, British racing rules only permit a horse to be declared a non-starter in certain cases and being blindfolded isn’t one of them.

During the Royal Ascot meet, I’ve been reminded about how much more emphasis Brits place on weight than we do in the US. They also strongly subscribe to course (translation: track) biases. A field of 16 runners is liable to split into two distinct groups—one close to the near rail and the other over by the far rail. That’s because jockeys and connections want runners to be on the ‘best’ part of the course. US riders are aware of track biases, but seldom take such drastic measures on dirt or turf.

You also may have noticed that Royal Ascot wagering numbers do not correspond to post positions as they do in the US. (Noticed? It drives me absolutely mad!) In a European Handicap horses are assigned numbers based on weight. The horse carrying the most weight is assigned number 1 and the rest of the field follows in order of highest to lowest. In Weight-for-Age races, horses are numbered alphabetically. Apparently, over there, they not only value weight more than we do, but also the alphabet. The order in which horses appear listed on a race card page corresponds to respective starting stalls or post positions.

Since the 1970s, an outstanding Royal Ascot tradition gathers racegoers at the end of each day for a rollicking round of song. Those familiar with communal singing at European football games understand the power of an unofficial chorus. Here in the US…well, I can’t recall ever singing along to anything besides the Star-Spangled Banner or My Old Kentucky Home and those are fine songs but not nearly as entertaining as a free-wheeling rendition of Sweet Caroline.

If you haven’t already, make certain to register for a 10X points bonus on all Royal Ascot wagers. Those points can add up and, if you’re going to wager on Ascot, you might as well take advantage of the offer.
Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #3

#6 Tilted Towers	He made the first move into a quick pace set by a loose 3/5 shot, and he wasn't embarrassed after that move in a race where finishers ruled.
#4 Texas Wedge	He's got a huge class edge on these, and he has plenty of room to step forward in this second start off the bench while getting back to the turf.
#7 Chasin Munny	Could see him making some noise in here with a good, outside draw to hassle any pace that wants to battle him early. He's in the mix.
Race Summary	I'm going to take a decent stand here with Tilted Towers, as he should get able to work out a great trip after staying on well with a bad race flow last time out. Price should be right.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#1 Adare	One of my favorite plays of the day if we get something around 4/1, as he proved he could handle the turf last time out, and his dirt route form is pretty solid. Two turns on the turf might suit him really well.
#11 Constitutionaffair	He's the one to beat with some sharp pace and the ability to turn away challenges late. He's fun to watch, but I'm hoping the top choice can reel him in today.
#10 Farquhar	He'll race as a first-time gelding today, and the barn won with a similar kind of long layoff runner a few months ago. I'd want him on at least some of the tickets.
Race Summary	Adare will be heavily featured on my tickets today while making this turf route debut. All signs point to him handling the trip, and he's potentially as good as any of these if that's the case.

Santa Anita - Race #11

#4 Acclimate	He has a tendency to give away ground in the lane, but he owns a massive pace edge over this small bunch, and I'll hope that they use his pace a bit to stretch these out early.
#2 Red King	Red King won this race last year and is a pretty reliable finisher, and he looks most likely to capitalize if the top choice can't see out the trip.
#3 Ward 'n Jerry	He's maybe not reliably at the same level as a couple of these, but he could find a pretty dreamy trip at a playable number.
Race Summary	Acclimate should be able to dictate the tempo from the start, and I'm going to single to close out the day and trust that his major pace edge will get him home.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1

#4 SKYWAY VENUS	Got up for third against odds-on winner, fits condition perfectly.
#1 STONEBRIDGE PEARL	Trapped behind faves, blocked with run in stretch.
#3 CRUZIN COCO	Stayed flat, improved in last two starts, offers little value.
Race Summary	Skyway Venus rallied second-over to finish third behind a 4-to-5 runaway and she remains eligible for this condition by $407 in earnings. Play a 1, 4 with 1,4 with ALL trifecta.

Northfield Park - Race #4

#6 ST LADS GIDGET	Speed mission came up just short, deserves another chance.
#3 OPALINE BLUE CHIP	Gets plenty of pace to run at, use underneath in all gimmicks.
#1 IVANNA IVY	Played bridesmaid role in 3 of her last 4 starts at Northfield.
Race Summary	St Lads Gidget responded to aggressive tactics, opened a clear lead through fast fractions and got caught by a deep closing longshot. He can notch his 32nd win with a duplicate performance. Play a 6 with 1,3 with ALL trifecta.

Meadowlands - Race #7

#6 SOUTH BEACH STAR	Has staying power, resilient in third consecutive victory.
#2 ROCKY ROAD HANOVER	Won 3 of last 4, all on 'off' tracks, gets acid test on class rise.
#3 SOUTH WIND PETYR	Beaten favorite in all three starts this year, switches drivers again.
Race Summary	South Beach Star returned to the Big M after back-to-back wins at 5/8-mile tracks out of town and extended his winning streak in impressive fashion. He chased the leader through a blistering :54 middle half, then held off the favorite in a :26 final quarter to prevail. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:05 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#6 Louder Than Bombs	Ran an even first in a handicap last time and drops to his lowest level; anything close to his best should be good enough.
#8 South Sea	Was second vs. similar last time after being in sprints on dirt; ran well for two turns and turf -- a pair of factors new to him.
#2 Durocher	Was too late in his bid vs. similar last time and can make a solid run late in the game.
Race Summary	Louder Than Bombs has been in much better races and the step down the class ladder should be what puts him over the top.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#1 Gangly	Has good speed but can drop back and make a strong move; well spotted in this starter allowance.
#3 Earth	He moves over from the turf but has a couple of seconds and thirds on dirt; could be the switch he needs.
#7 Ain't Wasting Time	Has the best recent form as he's won four of his last five; can apply the heat from the outside post.
Race Summary	Gangly has the most adjustable running style and can succeed regardless of what kind of pace is thrown his way.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11

#2 Hana Lima	Romped in her only start as she rallied off lukewarm fractions; a big threat in her first stakes attempt.
#3 Karakatsie	Was second in the Honey Ryder last out and has been on the board in three of four races; capable of another good result here.
#7 Tik Tok Famous	Welcomed her first two-turn appearance with an easy win in fast time; can be tough on the front end.
Race Summary	Hana Lima was very impressive in her career debut and looks capable of answering this call as well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:06 AM

Carmine Bianco

Event: (234085) France at (234086) Hungary
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks)
Date/Time: June 19, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Antoine Griezmann to score +125
This is a scorers prop.
Quick Synopsis: Player prop and France's Antoine Griezmann to score. Hungary had difficulties with Portugal in the 2nd half with substitutions and attacks from the wings and balls into the box. It's likely going to be a problem for them with Mbappe's speed on that left side and he'll create chances and get service to Griezmann in all likelihood.
The play is Antoine Griezmann to score +125 (Always remember when taking a scoring prop to select the VOID if player doesn't start option)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:06 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: France at Hungary
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks)
Date/Time: June 19, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: France -1.5 (-110)
EURO 2020
TAKE FRANCE -1.5
Line Parameter: 1% to -130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:07 AM

Andrew McInnis

Event: (234089) Germany at (234090) Portugal
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks)
Date/Time: June 19, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Germany/Portugal Both Teams To Score -125
Germany/Portugal Both Teams To Score -125

Andrew uses advanced stats, predictions, and models to make his educated soccer total and side wagers. Andrew remains very selective in soccer and very low volume but makes wagers when the statistics and situations point him in the right direction.
They're calling this the group of death. It's a very competitive group; there's no denying that. This game will be highly competitive and filled with end-to-end action. As far as Germany is concerned, they opened up against France and were shutout 1-0 despite having lots of possession and plenty of chances at the goal. As for Portugal, their opener was incredibly fascinating; Portugal waited until the 84th minute of the game to get on the scoreboard and continued to pile them in after that, winning the game 3-0 on a two-goal performance from Ronaldo. This game will be evenly matched, with both teams moving up and down the pitch. I expect both teams to be on the board.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2021, 06:07 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Portugal at Germany
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks)
Date/Time: June 19, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Portugal +0.25 (-115)
EURO 2020
It took until what the 84’ for Portugal to finally get that lead and then of course they scored three goals in ten minutes to win 3-0. They absolutely needed that win, every team in this group needs to be Hungary. I took Portugal to Win the Group at +300 and a big reason for that is experience. They have more than anyone on the international stage and it showed at the end of that game. There was no panic, it felt like they knew they would still win even as the minutes were running out.
Now they should have a ton of confidence for this game while Germany once again are in the position of disappointment with another loss and trying to figure out what to change against Portugal. Will Low change the starting XI, maybe bring in Werner to start, will he change how they lineup? A lot of questions and I think that gives a ton of value on Portugal here.
France did a fantastic job of shutting the Germans down after they grabbed that early lead and I think Germany is likely to struggle generating many chances against Portugal too. The no brainer play for me here is to take the + goals with Portugal +0.25 but there is also no way I won’t put at least a little something on Portugal to win, currently at +230.
TAKE PORTUGAL +0.25
Line Parameter: 2% +0.25 to -135