Sunday 6/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 07:08 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

June 20, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne completes the weekend with a 12 race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

1-Instantaneous Cash (9-1)-Qualified at Springfield and came the back half in 55.3 after a slow 1st half. This appears to be a wide open affair, and the program chalk #6 could be vulnerable.
2-Round Here Buzz (9-1)-Team Leonard trainee raced from the back and started from post 10. Did pace a 56.3 back half and having a start at this track could be an advantage over the 2 others mentioned here.
6-Hidden Assassin (2-1)-Art Major 3-year-old was a $20,000 purchase, qualified a couple of times in 2020 and then was put away. Qualified at Spr on 6-15 on a "good" track and it was okay, so will include but look to others for more value.

Race 10

2-Incedible Bombay (5/2)-Here's the program chalk who is 1-21 lifetime and is trip dependent. On the positive side of the ledger Bombay has raced better this year. Just missed by a nose with a 55.4 back half on 6-6. Seekman steers which should help and he needs to take advantage of the inside starting spot.
8-Super Park (12-1)-Blasted out for the top from post 10 in last. That was also the same plan for a few others and raced wide beyond the 1st turn. Needs to step-up off that effort in the 3rd Haw start and the price should be right to take a swing.
10-Shark Snare (6-1)-Comes out of the same race as #8 and didn't get a smooth journey. Was used hard off the gate and although no one was catching the winner, was bottled up down the lane and that didn't help. Todd Warren takes the lines for the Simmons' trainee who makes the 2nd appearance in Stickney and that's a ++ driver change.

Race 11

1-Fox Valley Lynyrd (7/2)-Was bet down to 2-1 in last and got locked in on the rail. Then was blocked down the lane so had to race wide and closed nicely late in the race. Had excuses and will likely be bet hard. Four-year-old looks like a main player in its 3rd lifetime start but could be over bet.
5-Rock With JK (7-1)-Makes 1st start for the Willis barn and comes off a sharp Haw qualifier on 6-10. Raced in 154.2 on the engine and best to respect connections.
7-Born Desire (5-1)-Comes off a decent debut on 6-6 to finish 2nd. Raced from the back and rolled home with .57 back half. Maybe tonight the pace will be more lively and Seekman will have this 3-year-old in striking range to roll by near the wire

Race 12

1-Fox Valley Kizzy (8-1)-Drew off by 6 lengths to break maiden in last. Got on the engine from post 9 and didn't look back. Should get a cozy trip, this isn't a very talented field of fillies and mares, so best to not overlook.
4-Adjacent (6-1)-Miller trainee was staked last year and didn't have success so this is a soft spot for a $52,000 Always B Miki filly. Sometimes the apple doesn't fall far from the tree and other times it's in another time zone. Qualifier at HoP was good so will take a swing and hope the morning line price holds up.
8-Countercurrency (7/2)-Has hit the board in 4 of 6 but with only 1 win, and has been a bridesmaid in the last 3 starts. Should be rolling late and Wilfong may catch the leaders with an honest pace.

0.50 Pick 4

1,2,6/2,8,10/1,5,7/1,4,8
Total Bet=$40.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 07:10 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis for Sunday, June 20, 2021

June 20, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Burgoo Alley; 4-Beirut Beauty; 6-For Love Not Money

Forecast: Burgoo Alley was extremely well-meant in her U.S. debut last month but was off slowly from the rail and simply had too much to do when rallying to be fifth, beaten less than four lengths. She’s stuck on the rail again today in this six furlong turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares but has returned to train quite well since raced, so if she can avoid trouble (especially at the start) the Irish-bred filly should be capable of earning her diploma. While the main push in our rolling exotic play will go to ‘Alley, we’ll also include on a backup ticket a couple of first timers, Beirut Beauty and For Love Not Money, both of whom have shown enough ability in morning trials to expect a good performance first crack out of the box.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dozo; 5-Paid Informant

Forecast: Paid Informant is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and will win if she can run back to her highly-rated optional claiming score two races back over this track and distance. The P. Miller-trained filly lacks tactical speed but should return to the winner’s circle under the assumption that she has at least one good one left. Dozo is worth tossing in on a ticket or two as a backup. Away for nearly a year and returning waiver protected, the M. Puype-trained filly has looked quite good in recent workouts to indicate she’s fit and ready, and with only three starts on her resume (with two wins) the daughter of Coil may have further improvement in her.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Disappearing Act; 4-On Mars; 5-Beguiled

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass this second level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares. On Mars was victimized by a brutal trip/ride last time out while being forced to race wide throughout while never getting any cover. She switches to J. Bravo, has trained well in the interim, and should bounce back with a major effort today. Beguiled has the blinkers off angle that we like and should be prominent throughout in a race that projects to be slowly run early. She’s a one-paced grinder and will have here best chance if put into the race early by J. J. Hernandez. Disappearing Act is slower on speed figures than the other main contenders but she’s a progressive type and could be a strong threat if her improving pattern continues.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Big City Lights

Forecast: Big City Lights ran away and hid in a very impressive debut performance last month, graduating by more than 12 lengths while widening at will in the final furlong. He’s listed as the 2/5 morning line favorite, rendering the race unplayable other than to use the son of Mr. Big as a short priced, no value, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Heir

Forecast: French-bred Heir finally makes it to the post at age four and shows up in a wide-open maiden $50,000 claiming turf miler that really doesn’t have a whole lot in it. The L. Powell-trained gelding has looked quite good in his morning dirt workouts – he’s been breezing in most of drills while finishing with plenty left - and should be even more comfortable on the lawn based on his European pedigree. He offers a legitimate gamble at 15-1 on the morning line, so let’s take a stand and make this newcomer a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: C
Use: 3-Vanna; 4-My Tigress; 6-Ricotta

Forecast: We’ll use three in this woefully weak bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and hope that’s enough to survive and advance. Vanna has been away since last August and returns for new trainer J. Mullins with a work tab that indicates she may be a tad better this time around. My Tigress is slow on speed figures, but everything else in the field is, too, and she’s hit the board in all four career starts so she’s sure to get plenty of play. Ricotta is a first-timer from the R. Bell barn with an okay (for this level) work tab. She clearly won’t have to be any type of world beater to act with these. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Tiz Plus; 3-Neptune’s Storm

Forecast: Neptune’s Storm is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the American S.-G3 for older turf milers despite having not been out since last September. The good news is a solid series of workouts that should have him fit and ready and an outstanding record (four wins in nine starts) over the Santa Anita turf course. Effective on the front end or from a stalking position and picking up top rider F. Prat, the P. Miller-trained gelding has much in his favor. Tiz Plus has been impressive in the morning of late and makes his first start since being gelded, so improvement is likely. He’s 15-1 on the morning line and probably is better than that, so the son of Tizway is worth tossing in somewhere as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Laurel Canyon; 2-At The Spa; 5-Royal O’Haigain

Forecast: All three fillies listed above were impressive debut maiden winners and each should step forward with that bit of experience behind them. Rather than split hairs, we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting it out. At The Spa drew off with authority to graduate by seven widening lengths and should run at least as well today. Royal O’Haigain essentially did the same thing in her maiden romp, though she earned a slightly lower speed figure than ‘Spa. Gulfstream Park shipper Laurel Canyon displayed some quality in her victory and has worked quite well since arriving in California and joining the P. Miller barn. She’ll have to avoid trouble from the rail, though.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:28 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Brooke; 3-Gidgetta; 7-Stela Star

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Wilshire S.-G3 has a ton of speed signed on so the race flow should promote the chances of the closing types. Brooke was a good third in her U.S. debut in January and the Chilean Oaks winner can be quite dangerous off her South American form in her first outing since making that favorable impression in the Megahertz S.-G3. She picks up U. Rispoli and projects to settle into a comfortable second flight early position and then have every chance from there. Gidgetta is unproven in graded stakes company and around two turns, but her speed figures continue to rise, and she has a late kick that should be complimented by what we expect to be a faster-than-par pace. She picks up M. Gutierrez, who has an outstanding record when riding for the R. Baltas barn. Stela Star, off the track for more than a year, returns for J. Sadler and is another who projects to be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. A group-3 stakes winner in Ireland as 2-year-old and stakes placed in both of her U.S. starts last year, the lightly-raced 4-year-old will be dangerous if she returns as well as she left.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:02 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Sea Dreamer; 4-Zydeco Mama

Forecast: Morning line (8/5) favorite Just Distorted in the logical top pick and one to beat but she’s been scratched since raced and hasn’t been out since early February. That’s not the pattern we’re willing to accept at a short price. Instead, let’s go with the newcomer Sea Dreamer, a daughter of Into Mischief with a good series of workouts for S. Callaghan. She’s done everything asked of her in the morning without showing any sizzling workouts and appears to be a filly with some quality. With F. Prat aboard, she’s worth a play at or near her morning line of 5/2. Zydeco Mama has the benefit of a prior win and could produce a significant forward move after finishing a distant second to the talented Illumination in her debut earlier this month for the Desormeaux brothers. The daughter of Hard Spun should be prominent throughout and have her chance.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:37 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Gypsy Blu; 8-Smiling Annie; 12-After Midnight

Forecast: We’ll spread the nightcap, a first-level allowance grass sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. Gypsy Blue, a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (26% with a strong ROI with this angle), removes blinkers, retains F. Prat, and has finished first or second in seven of 12 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course. It’s been quite a spell since she’s won but she gets ideal conditions today and should have no excuses. Smiling Annie also removes blinkers (love that angle) and may have needed the outing last month when second over this course in her first start since August. With a forward move today, she’ll be right there. After Midnight must leave from the 12-hole in her first race since October but the works look good and the daughter of Gervinho gets Lasix for her sophomore debut. At 15-1 on the morning line, she’s worth using in your exotics.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 07:12 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1

#2 New Drama	I like the recent form here, and she looks like the controlling pace on the hike. If the first-timers don't want to challenge her early, she might be able to see this one out.
#1 Burgoo Alley	Finisher made a decent first impression in the States last out, but I worry that she's overbet with this crew today while facing an iffy race shape.
#7 Unusual Ride	She finished up nicely at 18/1 in the debut try, and she can probably move forward with that race under her belt. Still, she might be up against it from a race flow perspective.
Race Summary	Class rising speed New Drama gets the edge off a a couple of good tries with $50K company, and I'm hoping she manages the trip without too much early pressure today.

Santa Anita - Race #3

#6 Avenue de France	I loved the two-back win, but she didn't show up with anything when trying Grade III company last out. Worth noting that she didn't come back on the tab for two months after that, so maybe it's worth forgiving that run. I'd be plenty interested at something like the 8/1 ML price.
#1 Moonhall Milly	She's pretty reliable, and she can be somewhat tactical at this kind of trip while cutting back an eighth of a mile. She's in the mix here, but I'll side with the 'other' Powell.
#2 Dutch Painting	She owns pretty solid pace and knows how to dig in late, but this is a deeper bunch than she has been facing in recent starts at Golden Gate.
Race Summary	Avenue de France should offer a solid price, and there are reasons to think she's going to bring something better this time around. She looked like she had plenty left in the tank in that two-back win, so I'll give her a chance to show it at a mid-range price.

Santa Anita - Race #5

#2 Titrate	He's got some pace to use while dropping back to the level at which he ran second a few starts back. He'll run as a gelding for the first time and has a big claim on this one up top.
#1 Brother Reid	Layoff runner will have to fire around two turns in the first start since February 2020, but he's a threat if he comes back anything close to the way he went to the bench.
#10 Algeria	He woke up a bit off the bench when trying this level last out, and he's very tough with these if he has a step forward in him in this second start off the layoff.
Race Summary	Titrate should be up top early, and he just feels like the most likely one to run his race and get home first. Brother Reid and Algeria both seem competitive with the right kind of effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 07:13 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4

#1 Street Art	Romped in his debut here, winning by four lengths going 4 1-2 furlongs; can be right there for every bit of this stakes spot.
#3 Big City Lights	Won by 12 lengths, which is an incredible margin for 4 1-2 furlongs; has worked well since and will be in a battle with the top choice. No surprise either way on these top two.
#2 Bochombo	Won his second start and after running two to Street Art in his debut; looks like a threat just off the lead.
Race Summary	Street Art was impressive in his only start and can get a good close-up trip.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#5 Majestic Eagle	His runner-up finish in the G3 Daytona came in is first start in seven months; gets additional distance and can be tough to the wire.
#3 Neptune's Storm	Makes his first start since September and is usually a pace factor; Prat and Miller have clicked at 44 percent together over the last two weeks.
#2 Restrainedvengence	Was close earlier than normal in the G1 Shoemaker and held third; can adjust to the pace here.
Race Summary	Majestic Eagle likely will go postward at a decent price, and improvement off his first one off the bench will give him a chance at a big upset.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#2 Brooke	Was a bang-up third in the G3 Megahertz, which was her first since arriving from South America; McCarthy runner will be tough in her return.
#5 Warren's Showtime	Hasn't won in her last six races but has been on the board in her last 10 and 17 of 19 overall; never a question whether she's going to run hard.
#7 Stela Star	Closed with a run in her last two and finished second in each; can make a strong late run in her third U.S. start.
Race Summary	Brooke has the speed to be in the mix from the start and can improve in her second start in the U.S.; expect a big effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 10:29 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $52,000 • Post: 3:56P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 120 LBS.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LIZA STAR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LIZA STAR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BRAMBLE BERRY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. APPOINTED: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MERSEYSIDE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	LIZA STAR	2/1	5/2
2	BRAMBLE BERRY	5/2	9/1
4	APPOINTED	8/1	9/1
3	MERSEYSIDE	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LIZA STAR	1	2/1	Front-runner	93	80	94.8	87.0	84.0
5	MOANAS POWER	5	12/1	Front-runner	77	72	82.8	56.2	46.2
4	APPOINTED	4	8/1	Front-runner	84	85	75.8	73.0	64.5
3	MERSEYSIDE	3	7/2	Stalker	96	85	81.4	76.4	69.9
2	BRAMBLE BERRY	2	5/2	Stalker	93	87	73.0	80.0	75.0
6	AWESOME ANNMARIE	6	4/1	Trailer	86	83	62.0	72.0	63.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 11:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 6	Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 20, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 5 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 20, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 20, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GEMOLOGO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GEMOLOGO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SECRET PASSAGE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SOLO DRINK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating. NAPOLEON'S EMPIRE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	GEMOLOGO	5/2	5/1
1	SECRET PASSAGE	2/1	6/1
8	SOLO DRINK	7/2	7/1
3	NAPOLEON'S EMPIRE	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GEMOLOGO	6	5/2	Front-runner	80	79	75.0	68.2	63.2
1	SECRET PASSAGE	1	2/1	Stalker	78	79	65.6	84.2	80.7
7	SEA WARRIOR	7	10/1	Stalker	64	59	42.3	54.3	38.3
3	NAPOLEON'S EMPIRE	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	81	67.6	72.0	65.5
9	ULTRACONFIDENT	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	72	64.4	57.0	43.0
8	SOLO DRINK	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	85	84	61.6	73.8	66.3
2	PRIVATE ASTRAY	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	69	58.4	68.2	57.7
5	TALE OF A SONG	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	68	73.5	42.8	31.8
4	GLENNEVAN	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	67	43.8	54.2	36.2
10	ELECTRIFYING	10	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	74	35.0	52.2	35.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 11:40 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Lone Star Park - Race #10 - Post: 6:47pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,800 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#3 AIDANIKE (ML=7/2)
#5 FANTASTIC RIVA (ML=8/1)

AIDANIKE - This rider and conditioner are consistent together. Win pct when teamed up is tough to best. This horse coming off a strong contest in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This filly is number one in EPS (earnings per start). Take a long look at this one in the saddling ring. FANTASTIC RIVA - The rider and conditioner combination have a lucrative return on investment when they unite. Gutierrez rode this racer for the initial time last out and comes right back this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MOMARIA (ML=5/2), #2 STILL OF THE NIGHT (ML=3/1), #10 SURE SHOT SHELLY (ML=8/1),

MOMARIA - In any contest of 5 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been on the board in short distance contests lately. STILL OF THE NIGHT - Don't think that this filly has value at 3/1 in today's event. SURE SHOT SHELLY - Would have to get much more than the morning line of 8/1 to wager on this thoroughbred.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 AIDANIKE on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 11:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Pleasanton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ELUSIVE LOVE 2/1
# 6 BARBIERE 9/2
# 2 HAWK HILL 5/2

I have to support ELUSIVE LOVE here. He has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the best in this field. With a competitive 82 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. With a sound 79 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. BARBIERE - Has very good speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in here. Players using horses with this rider and trainer combo have done very well recently. HAWK HILL - Has garnered sound Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Displays sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 11:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 20, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 IMPACT PLAYER 9/2
# 7 HE'S SO ZAZZY 7/2
# 2 KING DEUCE 3/1

My choice for this event is IMPACT PLAYER. Is tough not to consider based on Speed Figures which have been competitive - 86 avg - of late. Tracy has a sound 20 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Earning some nice paychecks in dirt sprint contests. HE'S SO ZAZZY - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Broberg running at this distance are the top in this field. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last race. KING DEUCE - This horse has been consistently racing well lately. Has been moving strongly in races of this distance, going 7 out of 28 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 11:42 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Chippewa Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:30pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $2,800 Class Rating: 23

Rating:

#2 ADDY PADDY (ML=8/5)

ADDY PADDY - Rider jumped on this filly's back for the 1st ride on Jun 6th. Should be in tune with the equine even better this time. She may be way off the pace, but Salvino should be smacking her turning for home on the way to the wire. This horse brings in a lot of cash per race around the track. I believe she can increase that bankroll right here. A repeat of that most recent race on June 6th where she garnered a speed rating of 12 looks lofty enough to triumph in this event. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a good contest is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REBOL OF ROMANCE (ML=2/1), #3 INSPEIGHTOFTHEDOG (ML=5/1), #1 SOMERSET PRIDE (ML=7/1),

REBOL OF ROMANCE - This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in short distance races in the last 60 days. INSPEIGHTOFTHEDOG - Doesn't appear to be in a cozy situation this time around. SOMERSET PRIDE - Doesn't appear to have enough positive aspects to warrant the price.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ADDY PADDY - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TrackMaster Power Rating by at least 5 points.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 ADDY PADDY is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-20-2021, 11:43 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

06/20/21, CD, Race 3, 1.43 ET
06/20/21,CD,3,5F [Dirt] 00:56:02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $100,000 (includes up to $37,200 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs.
d. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	9	Conagher	12/1	Rocco. Jr. J	Tomlinson Michael A.	SFELC	565	29.56	1.17/$1
099.0793	5	Almuahed	5/1	Gaffalione T	Walsh Brendan P.	T	565	29.56	1.17/$1
098.4021	2	Buckingham Prince	10/1	Geroux F	Casse Norm W.	J	371	27.49	1.17/$1
097.8813	4	Condemn	6/1	Mena M	Drury. Jr. Thomas		565	29.56	1.17/$1
097.6888	8	Ottoman Empire	4/1	Graham J	Amoss Thomas M.		565	29.56	1.17/$1
096.8665	1A	Chileno	3/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		565	29.56	1.17/$1
096.6171	1	Totalizer	3/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		565	29.56	1.17/$1
096.2856	10	Texas Red Hot	20/1	Talamo J	Morse Randy L.	W	565	29.56	1.17/$1
095.8650	6	Bourbon Heist	10/1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Wilkes Ian R.		565	29.56	1.17/$1
094.4398	7	Cachirulo	30/1	Bejarano R	Macias Adolfo		565	29.56	1.17/$1
093.4722	11	Southern Sense	6/1	Arrieta F	Romans Dale L.		565	29.56	1.17/$1
092.4549	3	Officer Nick	12/1	Lanerie C J	Romans Dale L.		565	29.56	1.17/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 25.00, ROI 0.98/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.9207
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Categories] Not Second Start