Wednesday 6/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Parx Racing - Race #4

#8 Always Biz	Steps up for turf today, and he should be a solid price while rising in poor form. The pedigree is solid for the turf with sire Fed Biz getting 13% first turf winners, and damsire Lord at War hitting at 18%. Let's see if the lawn wakes him up.
#5 Big City Dreams	Considered this one on top, but he's probably a much shorter price today than he was when waking up at this level last time out.
#11 Milton Road	He had a troubled go of it late in that turf debut at Mountaineer, and and he's probably not a bad fit with this group if he's able to fire fresh around two turns off the September layoff.
Race Summary	Favorites are just 23%, and MCL turf route winners have paid an average of 8.47-1 here in the last year, so it's okay to go shopping for a bit of a price in a race like this. Always Biz has the pedigree to handle the new footing could come forward at a price.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#5 Gambit's Girl	Dangerous pace should be able to find the front on the move around two turns, and the other forward players may be content to sit just off her early fractions.
#7 Hit the Woah	She gets some serious class relief out of a trio of stakes tries, and she'll run with Lasix for the first time while moving back to the dirt where she has been solid in the past.
#4 Sense a Million	She was never involved in that sprint last out, but she has some decent back two-turn form that would make her competitive with these. Silvera rides local two-turn trips like this as well as anyone.
Race Summary	Gambit's Girl has sharp sprint pace to put to use against this route bunch, and she has knocked on the door with this kind in recent starts.

Parx Racing - Race #10

#1 Nine Toe Johnny	There is a little bit of pace signed on in here, and this guy might luck into a perfect trip while saving ground on the rail. The barn does really good work with dirt routers here, going 16:5-1-5 with this type in the last year.
#2 First Citizen	He's at his best when he's able to find the front, so they figure to go as the speed drawn furthest inside on the move around two turns. He's probably going to be a handful today.
#5 Over Sensual	He's no threat on recent form, but he might have some clunk-potential late after being outrun in the early stages. I'll try to get him in underneath one or both of the top pair.
Race Summary	Nine Toe Johnny goes for a barn that has done good work with this type in the last year. With the right kind of race flow here, you might be looking at something more like the March 22 effort, and that might keep him in the picture at a price today.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#3 SOUTHWIND MINA	Exits fast heat, will be running late, use in all gimmicks.
#7 NASHVILLE EL GENNA	Finished far ahead of 'Mina,' ran second to odds-on winner.
#2 BEACH CRAZY	Caught the pace-setting favorite to win under same conditions.
Race Summary	Southwind Mina, bet down to 3-1 at this level, raced second over and improved her position but couldn't gain ground through a :55 back half. She can make a run at her first win of the year at a good price.

Saratoga Harness - Race #1

#5 LYONS ANITA	Shuffled from pocket, deserves another chance, can use speed well.
#1 HEAVEN SENT ME	Ran in fast qualifier at Pocono, draws the rail with Stalbaum.
#3 THE SHORT NORTH	Ohio invader failed at short odds in 3 of her last 4 starts.
Race Summary	Lyons Anita led early, settled into the pocket, but was shuffled to last by the favorite on the final turn. She could go non-stop today for her first win. Play a 5-ALL exacta.

The Meadows - Race #1

#6 SOMEMIKI HANOVER	Rallied into slow pace in well-bet debut, tempting morning-line price.
#3 CAPE COD HANOVER	Controlled soft pace in qualifying victory for Team Burke.
#5 SHADOW OF FEAR	Held second in fast final quarter in qualifier, showed little in debut.
Race Summary	Somemiki Hanover took money in her debut, rallied into a sloooow pace and finished third, earning a playback against several first-time starters today. Play a 3-5-6 exacta box.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#3 Forever Marta	Has spent a lot of time over her head and takes a class drop that will likely help her out; could be at the ideal distance.
#4 Ready Orb Not	Was fourth vs. better last time and turns back in distance; will come rolling.
#6 Special Counsel	Was second last out and won in impressive fashion three races back; steps up in class but is good enough to be in the hunt.
Race Summary	Forever Marta takes a significant step down in class and that should be good enough to get her back to good form.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#4 Short Circuit	Rallied mildly at this level last out and switches back to Zayas, who was aboard when she broke her maiden three race; can respond when called upon.
#5 Kate's Kingdom	Was on the board in three straight at this level, didn't fire last time, but has done well on the this turf course and is an obvious threat.
#6 Frankie's Girl	Was on the board in all six career stakes and most recently was third at this level; has been in good races and could take this one.
Race Summary	Short Circuit will be closer to the lead this time and can make a solid move into contention turning for home.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#4 Cool Arrow	Steps down in class and has a big class advantage; has won well over the year his last win came in the G3 Smile Sprint last fall over this strip; might not be what he once was, but probably doesn't have to be.
#5 Man of Honor	Was a clear winner last out in his first since shipping in from Fair Grounds; has been on the board in all six Guflstream starts.
#6 Legal Deal	Moves over to the main track and ran third last time; fits and this distance.
Race Summary	Cool Arrow has won more than $600K and can get back to good form at this level.

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Stats: Pimlico | Vukelic Runs Streak to 4

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June 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

The Maryland-record Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover has grown to $1,351,928 heading into Friday’s card … An announcement on a potential mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 could be made in the coming days … The 3-day holiday racing week includes Sunday’s July 4 Red, White & Blue Day quartet of stakes races. Sharing the marquee will be MATCH Series events in the Caesar’s Wish and Lite the Fuse, as well as the Concern and Jameela. First post will be 12:40 pm ET ... Pimlico is racing on the main-track only for a few weeks to give the turf course a chance to recover from extended use this spring/summer … Pimlico Special winner Harper’s First Ride was back in the local winner’s circle June 27 in allowance company.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary hiatus with only 2 tracks from the 1/ST family in action.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 43% wins and a flat-bet profit. The factor Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed won a whopping 58% with a $45.80 profit if you bet $2 win on each horse topping that factor for the week.

Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Avg. Speed Last 3
Best Speed Last 3

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Claudio Gonzalez dominated with a 10: 6-2-0 record and boasted a $3.24 ROI for every $1 bet. He had a $38 big bopper to go along with 5 victories at 5-2 or less. Gonzalez was 4-4 with maiden claimers.

-- Trainer Damon Dilodovico was rock-solid at 6: 2-2-0, including a $19 winner and an 8-1 runner-up. Horacio Karamanos piloted both winners.

-- Trainer Robert Vukelic won with both starters, dirt allowance victors paying $11 and $18. He’s won with 4 straight Pimlico starters dating back to May 31.

-- Jockey Angel Cruz was dialed in at 7: 4-2-0 and is now 8-19 over the past 2 weeks. He went 4-4 teamed with trainer Claudio Gonzalez.

-- Jockey Kevin Gomez had an 8: 2-0-2 record with $15 and $38 pricy winners. His show horses added 11-1 and 20-1 prices.

-- The public had the chalk smothered at 24: 12-5-1 with 50% wins and 71% in the exacta. Jockey Charlie Marquez was 3-4 riding favorites.

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Stats: Gulfstream Park | Camacho Was Macho

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June 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines
Gulfstream Park will have a special four-day week – Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday – surrounding the end and start of the fiscal year in Florida … Wednesday’s card will have a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6, which boasts a $26,530.40 carryover … The Summit of Speed will be featured Saturday with the Grade 2 Princess Rooney and Grade 3 Smile Sprint, expected to lure the likes of Ce Ce and Diamond Oops, respectively. Sunday’s feature is the Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary hiatus with only 2 tracks from the 1/ST family in action.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 33% or higher rate.

Best Speed Last 3
Best Speed Track
Speed Last Race

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Samy Camacho was on point with an 11: 5-0-2 record and $1.46 ROI for every $1 bet. His 5 wins came for 4 trainers, doubling down with Jose Francisco D’Angelo.

-- Jockey JC Diaz Jr. made the most of limited tries at 5: 2-0-1 with $7 and $11 winners. He also lit the board with an 11-1 shot.

-- Trainer Kathleen O’Connell flirted with perfection at 6: 4-1-0 behind $3, $6, $9 and $12 winners. Her runner-up was a 10-1 price player. O’Connell was 2-2 teamed with jockey Miguel Vasquez.

-- Trainer Jose Francisco D’Angelo didn’t misfire at 4: 2-2-0, pairing for 2 wins with Samy Camacho at $4 and $10.

-- Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. had another hot week at 6: 3-1-0 though all 6 starters were bet to 5-2 or less odds. The 3 wins all came in dirt sprints at 6 furlongs or less.

-- Favorites delivered 47% at 30: 14-5-2 with Samy Camacho going 3-for-3 in the saddle aboard chalk.

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AI Picks: Wednesday Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow 6

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June 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
A special Wednesday, June 30 card at Gulfstream Park will close the fiscal year in Florida, and that means there’s a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6. The 1/ST BET app artificial intelligence selections for Races 3-8 are included to help with the sequence, which has $26,530.40 in carryover money sweetening the pot.

The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with the selections for the stakes during tonight’s action. Full selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.

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Race 3 // 1:54 pm ET // optional claiming // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#5 Kate’s Kingdom (2-1 ML) // 25%W
#6 Frankie’s Girl (5-2 ML) // 20%W
#7 Crystal Coast (7-2 ML) // 19%W
#4 Short Circuit (8-1 ML) // 15%W

Notes: Morning line favorites line up as the top 2 choices though Kate’s Kingdom has been the beaten favorite in her last 2 starts. She’ll get an extra sixteenth of a mile to try to make amends. Frankie’s Girl finished a half-length in front of her over a mile last time out. Red-hot trainer Juan Avila sends out #1 Sara Mia (10-1 ML) if you’re looking for additional price depth.

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Race 4 // 2:25 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile

#1 Nacho Papa (7-5 ML) // 32%W
#2 Gran Casique (6-1 ML) // 24%W
#6 Devoted Kitten (8-1 ML) // 15%W
#3 Honolulu Express (3-1 ML) // 13%W

Notes: The 32% win projection for Nacho Papa is highest in today’s Rainbow 6, and the 8-point spread between the top pair is second-largest in the sequence. This will be a spot where many will single. Gran Casique and Devoted Kitten both offer price alternatives and have won over the GP main track.

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Race 5 // 2:56 pm ET // claiming // 7-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#3 Shikaka (8-5 ML) // 20%W
#5 I’m a Coco Pebbles (6-5 ML) // 17%W
#4 Pearlescent (7-2 ML) // 17%W
#6 Charlotte the Brit (3-1 ML) // 15%W

Notes: No surprises in this one from the 1/ST BET algorithm as the morning line choices rise to the top. Note I’m a Coco Pebbles is entered main-track only. There’s only a 5-point spread between the other 3 choices and perhaps a race to extend that coverage to include them all, each coming off a third or fourth-place effort.

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Race 6 // 3:27 pm ET // optional claiming // 6-1/2 furlongs

#1 Squeezadios (9-2 ML) // 29%W
#4 Cool Arrow (6-1 ML) // 25%W
#3 Doc Amster (2-1 ML) // 20%W
#5 Man of Honor (9-5 ML) // 12%W

Notes: Juicy prices top the AI picks in this one as the 9-5 favorite Man of Honor is sizably below the leading win projections. Squeezadios and Cool Arrow drop in class, the former owning the second-highest win projection in today’s Rainbow 6.

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Race 7 // 3:59 pm ET // optional claiming // 6-1/2 furlongs

#3 Kamar Taj (5-2 ML) // 25%W
#7 Kitty Kitty (4-1 ML) // 16%W
#4 Tiz Enough (7-2 ML) // 13%W
#2 Royal Habibi (9-2 ML) // 11%W

Notes: The 9-point spread between the top 2 choices is the largest in today’s Rainbow 6. Kara Taj, the 5-2 morning line favorite, could be a useful single off an impressive debut win. Kitty Kitty also won at first asking.

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Race 8 // 4:31 pm ET // maiden claiming // 1 mile (turf)

#3 Triple Jeopardy (3-1 ML) // 25%W
#4 Mutakaamil (6-1 ML) // 18%W
#1 Creative Choice (9-2 ML) // 10%W
#6 Mutaraafeq (8-1 ML) // 10%W

Notes: The largest field size (10) in the sequence features a solid 1/ST BET selection in Triple Jeopardy, a top-4 finisher in all 8 career starts. Expect Mutakaamil to make a leap forward first off the claim for hot trainer Juan Avila. Creative Choice adds blinkers and has been knocking on the door. Two deep would seem appropriate.

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (951) Arizona Diamondbacks at (952) St. Louis Cardinals
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: June 30, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: 1H Arizona Diamondbacks +1.0 (-105) R Smith (RHP), K Kim (LHP) Must Start
The Diamondbacks absolutely clobber left handed pitchers, ranking 4th in all of MLB. The Cardinals have faced Smith two times for a total of 5 innings and scored 0 runs on him, while the DBacks got 4 on Kim when they faced him. Both teams have equally terrible bullpens so taking +1 in the 1st 5 is a good 1% play.

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The Prez

Event: (977) Tampa Bay Rays at (978) Washington Nationals
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: June 30, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -118 M Wacha (RHP), J Lester (LHP) Must Start
977 Washington Nationals at 978 Tampa Bay Rays -118, 9

The Tampa Bay Rays (47-32) are scheduled to send former St Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha (1-2, 4.66) to the mound to oppose Jon Lester (1-3, 4.99) and the Washington Nationals (38-38) on Wednesday.

Lester has been lined up with a favorable slate of opponents since beginning his 2021 campaign late as a piece of the Nats rotation. Lester has been hot and cold since returning from the IL. He lasted just 2 1/3 innings in his last start vs. these same Marlins allowing seven runs on five hits that included three walks and just a single strikeout.

The Rays considered using an opener in place of veteran Wacha. The righty gave up one run across five frames against the A’s on Tuesday, striking out two without a walk. Wacha's xERA heading into his start against the Athletics was a 6.84, but the former Card is in line for positive regression with a .275 BABIP 65 percent strand rate. The Free Pick is a play on Wacha and the Rays.

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Bobby Ligs

Event: (963) Los Angeles Angels at (964) New York Yankees
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: June 30, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: New York Yankees -127 S Ohtani (LHP), D German (RHP) Must Start

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Marco D'Angelo

Event: (971) Minnesota Twins at (972) Chicago White Sox
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: June 30, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Chicago White Sox -123 B Ober (RHP), D Cease (RHP) Must Start
FREE PLAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -123

The White Sox send Dylan Cease to the mound tonight. In 7 home starts Cease has a 1.63 ERA and a WHIP of 1.06. The White Sox are 6-1 in those 7 starts. We also find that The White Sox are 68-31 when installed as the favorite over the L2 Years.

TAKE CHICAGO WHITE SOX

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (208301) Sao Paulo at (208302) Corinthians
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: June 30, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Draw +222
One of the biggest games in Brazil, the ‘Classico Majestoso’, kicks off on Wednesday between Corinthians and Sao Paulo and I like the value on the outright Draw here.
Both teams have started out the season much slower than expected with Sao Paulo yet to register a win while Corinthians boast just one win over their last five.
Despite being favorites for this contest, Sao Paulo have yet to win any of their last five matchups when installed as pre-match favorites, while Corinthians have gone unbeaten in their last 14 H2H's against Sao Paulo held in this venue.
But Corinthians manager Sylvinho has drawn immense criticism of late, winning just two of his nine games in charge, so the odds here are understandable.
Four of the last ten H2H's between these two finished in outright Draws, including the last one back in May, and we like the value in this one playing out in a similar fashion once again.
Take the outright Draw on Wednesday between Sao Paulo and Corinthians over in the Brazilian Serie A.
PLAY: DRAW +222

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Ralph Michaels

Event: (531) Phoenix Suns at (532) Los Angeles Clippers
Sport/League: NBA

Date/Time: June 30, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: 1Q Phoenix Suns -0.5 (+100)
First Quarter
Phoenix -0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

Assiniboia Downs - Race 5	.20 PICK 3 (Races 5-6-7) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR / QUINELLA
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $9,600 • Post: 9:35P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Class. SESAME is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SESAME: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a F ront-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LIL MISS MOLLY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	SESAME	6/5	5/2
7	LIL MISS MOLLY	10/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	LIL MISS MOLLY	7	10/1	Front-runner	64	61	75.7	56.2	51.7
4	SESAME	4	6/5	Alternator/Front-runner	83	72	76.4	67.2	61.7
2	VALLENTAY	2	12/1	Stalker	62	51	58.0	56.6	51.1
3	SUE'S EASTER GIRL	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	66	38.2	48.8	38.3
1	LEGENDARY SONG	1	6/1	Trailer	66	60	54.4	57.6	50.1
6	WITT'S TENNY TEN	6	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	58	59.0	39.0	27.0
5	GONE LONG GONE	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	47	54.6	50.0	40.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pocatello Downs

Pocatello Downs - Race 1	$2 First Half Daily Double $2 Exacta / $2 Quinella
Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $1,500 • Post: 6:00P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND OLDER. 3YO 124 LBS.; OLDER 126 LBS. (OPEN TO MIXED BREED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NO WARNING JUST FIRE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TW ITSALRIGHTNOW: Horse ranks in the top three in Tra ckMaster Power Rating. KOOL KOWBOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	NO WARNING JUST FIRE	4/5	3/1
1	TW ITSALRIGHTNOW	4/1	7/2
3	KOOL KOWBOY	8/5	7/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TW ITSALRIGHTNOW	1	4/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	NO WARNING JUST FIRE	2	4/5	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	KOOL KOWBOY	3	8/5	Slow	0	0	7.5	0.0	0.0