Saturday 7/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:38 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

July 3, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 13 race card scheduled with the feature coming in Race 9, the Joie De Vie Open Trot for mares with a $156,000 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Jk First Lady (10-1)-This will be the 5th start of the year and was favored in the first 2 tries that were here. The M1 efforts were both good and now Dunn has no excuse to not be in control early or in the pocket. Looking for a big effort either way at a nice price.
3-Lyons Sentinel (3-1)-Similar to #2, has been bet in the last couple but hasn't been able to seal the deal. Tetrick should be able to work an efficient trip tonight and be in striking range at the top of the lane.
7-Rocknificent (4-1)-This will be a good test but does come off a sharp win from this same post and got on the engine with a 26.2 opening quarter. Zeron could find a good seat and then look to come off cover. There should be an honest pace and best to not overlook, usually is in the hunt at the Big M.

Race 7

4-Allywag Hanover (7/2)-Left from post 12 in the Graduate Series which made it a difficult task and the trip wasn't efficient but paced willingly to the wire. Tetrick takes over and he won the last time between the pipes on 6-5. Should be driven aggressively and be put in play from the word go.
5-Cattlewash (3-1)-This will be the 3rd start of 2021, and both previous efforts were good but didn't produce a win. Miller has gate speed to use but the start could be wicked if the #2 and #4 both blast out. Miller could work a stalking trip and roll by down the lane.

Race 8

2-Captain Barbossa (4-1)-Dunn will likely not battle #4 early but he wants to stay close and be the best in the last quarter. This should be a fun race to watch and if the track is dry they could go in 1.47 or faster.
4-This Is The Plan (2-1)-There won't be much decision making by Gingras as he will almost certainly be headed to the point. Faded down the stretch in the last start but was off 3 weeks between races. Expecting better tonight.
8-Angers Bayama (6-1)-This 5-year-old son of Big Jim doesn't boast the bankroll of others but appears to be worth a swing at a solid price. Smoked the back half in 52.3 to win at a big price last week and this race could have some very hot early fractions.

Race 9

1-Hypnotic AM (9/2)-Most tickets will be using #6, and #5 Romana Hill. But this mare has a win and 2 losses by less than a length versus tough foes in the Graduate Series. Using off those efforts and starting on the rail could help. If anyone is beating Atlanta my chips are on this Merlander trainee, who should offer some value.
6-Atlanta (3-1)-Looked in control, like the Champ she is in her 1st start of 2021. Making it 2 straight appears to be well within reach with a smooth journey and Gingras has options.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,3,7/4,5/2,4,8/1,6
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:40 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 7/3/21

July 3, 2021
Every Thursday through Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

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Ellis Park Race 6 - Post time: 3:10 CT
8-Ying Yang (7/2)

This $160,000 fall yearling purchase makes her debut in this maiden juvenile filly turf miler and has done enough excellent work in the morning to be fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. Bred to run long on the lawn, the daughter of Point of Entry goes for the powerful B. Cox/S. Bridgmohan team following a local bullet half mile drill (4f, :48.1h, fastest of 13) six days ago that should have her on her toes. In a race in which the known element appears suspect, let’s play this highly-regarded newcomer in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics and hope to get close to her morning line of 7/2.
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Ellis Park Race 7 – Post time: 3:40 ET
2-Palm Cottage (4-1)

We’re expecting top trainer B. Cox to have good luck with his first-timers today; here’s another live item in this six furlong main track sprint for juvenile fillies. Palm Cottage is a $575,000 daughter of American Pharoah out of the multi-stalking winning Walkwithapurpose, she the dam of stakes-winning Where Paradise Lay, so with plenty of speed and precocity in her bloodlines this highly-regarded juvenile filly seems primed and ready to graduate at first asking. A bullet five furlong workout in :59 flat two weeks ago points her out, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll try her in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Arlington - Race #1

#6 Gramercy	She didn't show up going two turns with Grade I company on the Keeneland dirt, but her local maiden win was pretty sharp here last year and she's a big threat if she's ready to roll off the October layoff.
#1 Silver Cloud	She'll have to work out a trip from the fence, but she just scored at this level and comes right back for the tag again. She's there with her best.
#3 Spun d'Etat	Not sure I'd want her at anything like the 9/5 ML price, but she does own some running lines that would be competitive here. Tough call.
Race Summary	Gramercy probably gets bet a bit with this group, but she was sharp here in her 2yo season and could be a handful if she comes back running.

Arlington - Race #4

#1 Duckdevil	The local main track tries have been his best, and he might work out a decent trip while hopefully tucked in behind some of the stretchout players. Overlooked here?
#8 Rag Tag	The form is there to land this, but he has had 14 chances and has landed 10 shares, so he's tough to love on top unless he's an overlay on the board.
#7 Sliabh Aughty	He has decent back synthetic form from his time overseas, so the surface switch might work in his favor after a few modest turf tries.
Race Summary	Duckdevil has a little bit of route pace, but he's meeting a few stretchout players who may want to bid for the front. Hoping he sits in the pocket with these.

Arlington - Race #6

#10 Krewe Chief	He'll have to hold form while moving out of the top barn, but he probably offers a fair price for these connections. He has some ability to settle and finish from midpack here. That 6/1 ML price would feel fair.
#4 My Bariley	He moves into the top barn after missing by a neck last time out, and he's a good fit at this level with some upside off the claim. Underlay?
#9 Cammack	He's one of the old warriors who still brings a pretty good race to the gate at age 11. He should be able to find another good spying trip and would have some appeal at something like the 9/2 ML price.
Race Summary	Krewe Chief might get a little bit lost on the board with this group, but he is already a winner at this level at the meet and can be tougher here after trying to rally into soft splits last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:43 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #5

#1 ANDREIOS KARDIA	Discount latest, fits well off prior starts at notch above.
#4 MY ALPHA ROCK	Drops in claiming price, won 3 of 9 in lightly-raced campaign.
#2 RUFFLE UP	Blew stretch leads in 3 of last 4 starts, moves closer inside.
Race Summary	Andreios Kardia can be excused for his latest try from post 9 on the class drop, but a re-run of his prior race would suit the 10-year-old well in this spot. He chased the odds-on favorite through torrid fractions before the 25-1 winner passed by both of them. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#6 ENAVANT	What does he do for an encore to perfect 4yo season?
#4 PEMBROOK LEGACY N	Sat pocket trip but was blocked in stretch with run.
#1 CANTSTOPLYING	Backside burst to command, held on for repeat score.
Race Summary	Enavant, 11-for-11 last year as a 4-year-old, prepped in the U.S. but returns home for his seasonal debut. He romped in a similar spot when last seen in September. Play 6-1 and 6-4 exactas.

Hawthorne - Race #2

#3 SPOXYS GIRL	Piled up the checks this year, tired chasing repeater, Wilfong's choice.
#1 CASA MIASA	Won from on and off the pace in June, draws rail on class hike.
#7 BETTER DAYS AHEAD	Romped on fast and 'off' tracks to improve to 8-17 this year.
Race Summary	Spoxys Girl chased the winning favorite and faded as her two-month, in-the-money streak ended. She was Wilfong's choice on a double call, so we'll give her the nod at 9-2 on the morning line. Play a 1-3-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:44 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#6 Mitzrayim	Hard not to like this one as he goes after his third straight win; gets out of conditioned company but has taken a liking to the local turf and fits with these.
#7 Financial System	Drops off a win, which doesn't make a lot of sense, and he's taken two of his last three, all a step above this level; strong front runner.
#12 Fig Jelly	Was claimed in two straight and won his last one; was claimed by Avila and he'll be a factor.
Race Summary	Mitzrayim is on a roll and faces a higher level than he's faced, but he's clearly headed in the right direction in his career and can pose a serious threat to these.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#8 Miles Ahead	Has shown a lot of improvement and lost a photo in a handicap last out; is a good stalker, but also is capable of getting to the lead if that's the way to go. Lost a two-race win streak last time but went down fighting.
#6 Diamond Oops	Closed steadily and was up in time last out; had a good 2020 with wins in the Turf Sprint and Phoenix and was fourth in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational.
#5 Double Crown	Has won four of seven and was third in race last year; he followed with a runner-up finish in the Chick Lang and came off a eight-month layoff with a win here. Clearly belongs with these.
Race Summary	Miles Ahead has climbed the class ladder and faces his toughest challenge; can't argue his form and could he score at a decent price.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11

#5 Ce Ce	Has some outstanding sprints on her form and comes in from California, along with Victor Espinoza; can finish well for trainer McCarthy.
#6 Laura's Light	Another Cali shipper (for Miller) and gets Florent Geroux; has spent much of her time on turf but recent romped in a Lone Star in a race that came off the grass.
#1 Estilo Talentoso	Was up in time in the Bed O Roses at Belmont and has won a couple over this strip; does well at the distance.
Race Summary	Ce Ce has a good closing move and is perfect for the seven furlongs; has taken on top fillies and mares and rates the edge here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:45 AM

‘Gulf Summit of Speed Late Pick 4 Analysis & Selections

July 2, 2021 | By Johnny D

Saturday, the Gr. 3, $200k Smile Sprint and Gr. 2 $350k Princess Rooney are ‘Invitational’ meats in a tasty Gulfstream Park Pick 4 sandwich. The former, afternoon’s 10th race at 5:02 pm ET, is a six-furlong sprint with a field of 8 topped by the versatile 6-year-old Gulfstream specialist #6 Diamond Oops. He’s 5-2 on the morning line and closely followed by 3-1 rated #4 Chance It, a win machine at two that won a one-mile stakes race at three and has a three-quarter length defeat in his only start at four.

The Princess Rooney, race 11 at 5:35 pm ET, is a seven-furlong test that matches 5-2 morning-line favorite and recent Belmont Bed O’ Roses winner #1 Estilo Talentoso against California invader #5 Ce Ce and six others. Amazingly, the former has never finished worse than third in 14 career starts, some in Gr. 1 races. Overall, she has just three wins and that reticence to score could open the door for multiple Gr. 1 winner #5 Ce Ce who, it should be noted, has never won a stakes sprint.

Preceding that pair of blockbusters and launching the Late Pick four in race 9 at 4:29 pm ET is a tricky $12,500 Claiming race going seven and one-half furlongs on turf. A full field of 12 is signed on, including one Main Track Only runner. Closing out the sequence is the 12th and final race—a Maiden $16k turf tour over seven and one-half furlongs. That’s attracted a field of 12, plus four Also Eligibles, two of which are entered Main Track Only.

Mother Nature, recently, has not been kind to Gulfstream Park. Wet weather has been the norm. Saturday’s Hallandale Beach forecast calls for a high temperature of 88 degrees with periods of clouds and sunshine and a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon. In other words, it’s your typical South Florida summer prediction. Selections below are made for a ‘Fast’ track and do not include analysis for scratches or surface changes.

As if you needed an additional reason to play Gulfstream’s Summit of Speed card, please note that account holders and NHC Tour Members can win Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge and National Handicapping Championship seats, plus cash prizes in the 1/ST Summit of Speed Challenge with Xpressbet. The contest requires a $1,500 buy in--$500 entry fee and $1k bankroll. Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta & Daily Double wagers only and players must wager on a minimum of 5 contest races at a minimum of $100 on each of those races. Visit the Tournaments section of the Xpressbet web site for complete details.

Also, in play Saturday at Gulfstream is the Summit of Speed Money-Back Special. Receive a refund of losing win bests up to $10 each time the horse you bet to win in select races finishes second or third. Eligible for the promo are: Race 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 & 11. You first must register for the promotion and additional details are available at Xpressbet.

Below is one man’s opinion on Gulfstream Park’s Saturday Summit of Speed Late Pick 4.

Gulfstream Race 9
Claiming $12,500
Seven and One-Half Furlongs (Turf)
Post Time 4:29 pm ET

#7 Financial System
Claimed for $40k from Chad Brown by Kelly Breen at Saratoga last summer, this 7-year-old was dropped to the $16k level for a win here going five furlongs. He was claimed out of that race by Jorge Delgado and won going one mile last out for $16k. He drops off that wire-to-wire tally over the GP turf where he’s won 3-of-7. While the aggressive placement looks strong, there is other speed in here.

#8 Positive Phil
This guy’s been tough lately at this level, winning two and finishing second twice in his last five starts. He’s just 3-for-21 overall, but he seems to have a new lease on life at age 5 for 17% trainer Juan Avila. Jockey Berrios and Avila combine at 27%.

#11 Harbour Master
This 7-year-old horse just finished second to #8 Positive Phil and certainly fits off earlier races against better. He’s 5-1 on the line and has the services of visiting jock Florent Geroux, one of the nation’s most underrated riders. He and trainer Biancone will collaborate with favorite #6 Diamond Oops in the Gr. 3 Smile Sprint and appear to have designs on visiting the winner’s circle one race earlier. It should be noted that he showed a bit more speed last out and will need to use some early lick to get position in this seven and one-half furlong dash around two turns.

Bottom Line:
This is a tricky race—seven and one-half furlong turf dashes around two turns for $12,5k claimers usually are--but the trio of runners mentioned above appear to have the best chances of getting home first: #7 Financial System, #8 Positive Guy, #11 Harbour Master. Below we’ve suggested a ticket that uses just about everyone in this race anticipating usual chaos. Adjust wager accordingly to your own opinions and tastes.

Gulfstream Race 10
Smile Sprint Invitational – Grade 3 - $200k
Six Furlongs
Post Time 5:02 pm ET

#4 Chance It
This 4-year-old colt was sharp at two, dominating Florida-bred stakes at Gulfstream Park. He made just two starts at three and won the Mucho Macho Man at one mile in January of that season. He missed by three-quarters of a length in his return to the races May 23. He has trained very well since for top trainer Saffie Joseph, with a best-of-65 four-furlong :46 and bullet five-furlong 1:00 2/5. He’s never been worse than second over this track.

#5 Double Crown
At three, he tried two Gr. 3 sprints—this race, the Smile Sprint against elders and Pimlico’s 3-year-olds only Chick Lang where he ran into the buzzsaw named Yaupon. In his recent local return to the races he provided snake-bitten trainer Kathy Ritvo with her lone win this season out of 27 starts. He’ll need to do a bit better to win this but he’s 4-for-7 overall and 3-for-5 at Gulfstream. He also has plenty of upside that points toward a big effort Saturday.

#6 Diamond Oops
This versatile gelding is the 5/2 race favorite based on sterling 6-for-10 surface and 4-for-7 distance stats. Overall, he’s won 8 of 20 while facing Gr. 1 foes on dirt and turf. Impressive. Now 6-years-old, he gamely prevailed over #8 Miles Ahead last out in his second 2021 start. We like leaning against 6-year-old runners whenever possible because they often have extensive resumes that attract wagering dollars but may not still have a knockout punch. This guy has been working well on Palm Meadows turf for this.

#8 Miles Ahead
This ‘win type’ (7-for-15 overall and 6-for-13 at GP) just missed to the 5/2 favorite last out in an overnight handicap while getting 5 pounds from #6 Diamond Oops. The spread is just two pounds here. Miles Ahead has nowhere near the resume of #6 Diamond Oops but has run some fast races against lesser. Could this be the 4-year-old’s graded stakes coming out party?

Bottom Line:
#6 Diamond Oops has the optimal resume and is training well. He’s logical. Those willing to take a bit of swing might give #5 Double Crown a thought. He appears ready to fire a big one. If you’re in a daring mood, toss the chalk, single #5 Double Crown and spread elsewhere. We’ve outlined that kind of ticket below.

Gulfstream Race 11
Princess Rooney Invitational – Grade 2 - $350k
Seven Furlongs
Post Time 5:35 pm ET

#1 Estilo Talentoso
Hats off to this consistent 4-year-old filly who’s been no worse than third in 14 lifetime starts, including 2 Grade 1 seven-furlong sprints at Keeneland and Churchill. She’s earned 5-2 favoritism off that record and her Gr. 3 Bed O’ Roses victory last out at Belmont. That’s she’s only won 3 of 14 and draws the rail in here are not positives at what could be a short-ish price.

#3 Thissmytime
This 4-year-old filly is interesting because she’s run fast enough to compete in here but has been gone since January when she battled on the early pace and was passed late by #4 Pacific Gale in the Gr. 2 Inside Information. This filly is a ‘win type,’ with speed and she likes Gulfstream Park. Connections obviously have aimed this Florida-bred toward this race off a six-month layoff. She could be dangerous at 6-1.

#4 Pacific Gale
Rocked the tote when first at 16-1 in the Gr. 2 Inside Information at Gulfstream in January. She hasn’t repeated that effort since, granted, with a few excuses. Still, she a 6-year-old who seems to be tailing off. She got a great setup in her January victory and may not get that same advantage in here.

#5 Ce Ce
She’s second choice at 3-1 and has accomplished a lot in her career, with the best (multiple Grade 1 wins) coming around two turns. She has won sprinting, usually off a layoff in in an allowance race. She bobbled at the start in her last (worst of her career) but figures to be overbet off her two-turn triumphs.

Bottom Line:
#3 Thissmytime is the most interesting runner in the race. If she’s ready to fire, and connections have had plenty of places to run her before this, she could be tough on the front end in a race that doesn’t appear to have a great deal of speed.

#1 Estilo Talentoso clearly has earned sprinting respect, but she’s a bit camera shy.

#5 Ce Ce certainly can win, but her best work in stakes has come around two turns.

Gulfstream Race 12
Maiden $16k
Seven and One-Half Furlongs
Post Time 6:08 pm ET

#6 Sette Stelle
This 0-11 maiden fired two decent shots in his last pair, when second, missing by three-quarters and one-half length in each. One of those was at today’s distance, too. Can he muster up a third consecutive top effort? If so, he should be around at the finish, again.

#7 Sweeney’s Cat
This colt has speed and may set or force the pace in here. He’s 0-9, but has four recent in-the-money efforts to his credit. Speed is a handy commodity in these cheap maiden races. He’s 3-1 on the morning line after finishing lapped on #6 Sette Stelle.

#8 Jarlian
He’s interesting because he’s races just four times and may have upside. Jockey switch to 21% winner Edwin Gonzalez is interesting move for low-percentage outfit. This colt was claimed for $25k three back and could find a cut-back in distance suitable.

9- Mulsanne Run
One has to pay attention to a Saffie Joseph-trained second-time starter dropping into a wide-open maiden-claiming event. Trainer is 25% with second time starters and is a crushing 43% with Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claiming Runners. First-time turf is one of the few areas where the trainer doesn’t excel. He’s just 9% in that category, according to Daily Racing Form stats.

10- Campeador
This colt has speed and should be sent from this outside box. He drops in for the lowest claiming price of his career and that should help in a wide-open race. Low-profile connections and the tough post don’t inspire additional confidence, but solid speed figures against better fit.

Bottom Line:
This race seems taylor-made for a ‘spread.’ Reasons to like several of them and no one to fall in love with.
#9 Mulsanne Run for trainer Saffie Joseph probably must be used.
#8 Jarlian is a forward type that seems to fit at a decent price (10-1 ML).
#6 Sette Stelle is 5/2 ML favorite and no cinch. 0-11 could be tossed by bold players.
#7 Sweeney’s Cat has speed and fits with #6 Sette Stelle.
#10 Campeador drops, has speed and fits at 9-2 ML

Suggested $.50 Late Pick 4 Ticket ($40 Total)
Race 9 #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #10, #11, #12
Race 10 #5
Race 11 #1, #3
Race 12 #7, #8, #9, #10

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 08:45 AM

Race of the Week: Princess Rooney at Gulfstream Park
July 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$350,000 GRADE 2 PRINCESS ROONEY STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, July 2, 2021

The Lead:
Gulfstream Park's hottest card of summer, the Summit of Speed, takes place Saturday with a graded stakes doubleheader for the dashers. The Grade 3 Smile Sprint and Grade 2 Princess Rooney will be offered back-to-back in Races 9 and 10 on a 12-race program. The Smile features the likes of Diamond Oops and Chance It, while the Princess Rooney matches some of the top filly and mare sprinters in the nation.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner CE CE tops the marquee with a top-notch resume. She's joined by Grade 2 winners LAURA'S LIGHT and PACIFIC GALE, as well as Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed ESTILO TALENTOSO. But only ESTILO TALENTOSO has won a graded stakes since March, and only PACIFIC GALE has also won a graded stakes in 2021. A 'now' horse might be able to make the class rise.

Pace:
The projected pace may not be as fast as you'd expect for this kind of sprint stakes. HALLAWALLAH showed surprising speed and a new dimension last time. THISSMYTIME can be forwardly placed, while LAURA'S LIGHT is a front-runner when routing on turf. A deep closer may be compromised.

Our Eyes:
CE CE was in a groove to open 2020, posting 3 of her 5 career victories in a 60-day span from February through April. But she's 1-6 since a gut-wrenching victory in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at 1-1/16 miles, winning only an April 2021 allowance at Santa Anita over this 7-furlong trip. She followed that with a last of 4 effort in the Santa Maria, defeated 10 lengths. It's always a concern when an older mare like this, now mid-way through her 5-year-old season, has lost her best form. Some never recover before heading off to broodmare duty.

LAURA'S LIGHT also invades from California. The 4-year-old filly has 12 starts, but none of those on a fast dirt track. She did win on the main track last out at Lone Star in the Ouija Board Distaff, a race rained off the lawn and onto a sloppy track. She'll cut back to a single-turn race for the first time since a turf sprint win at Santa Anita in February 2020. This is a top-flight turf miler who may handle the transition to the Gulfstream main track as her sire is local Florida Derby winner Constitution. Trainer Peter Miller has enjoyed much success with sprinters over the years, but this seems like a bit of a reach in terms of a 'fit.'

PACIFIC GALE caught fire here during the Championship Meet with back-to-back victories in the Grade 2 Inside Information and Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie. You might claim horse-for-course, but she had been 0-5 locally prior. Trainer John Kimmel's barn was going exceptionally well very early in 2021, but has cooled off since. You wonder if she was a product of that run? As strong as she finished in those 2 victories, she's been equally weak late in her last 2 and her workout June 18 as seen at XBTV was a solo move where my notes were "looked decent, but didn't finish with a flourish."

ESTILO TALENTOSO has never missed a beat and her late finishing kick has not been in question of late. Her last 3 BRIS late pace figures were 102, 101 and 100, all outstanding for a sprinter who plies her trade from only a few lengths off the pace. She was runner-up in last year's Azalea Stakes at this same point on the Gulfstream calendar. She's taken on outstanding competition in her last few starts and is the filly to beat via her Delaware Park summer base.

SOUND MACHINE, HEIRESSALL and THISSMYTIME represent the locally based stakes division. SOUND MACHINE has the most brilliant talent of the trio when on her game, but consistency has been an issue. She got a bit hot in the a.m. on video at XBTV and has been eager early in all her works. That kind of mindset may not suit over 7 furlongs, where she's 0-3. HEIRESSALL also struggles to be consistent, and has been managed with easier races than this on her ledger. Her last 3 wins have been followed up with bad losses by 6-3/4, 12 and 23 lengths. THISSMYTIME returns from a January layoff when second-best to PACIFIC GALE over this trip and track in the Grade 2 Inside Information. She will be forwardly placed and could benefit if some of the heavyweights don't fire.

HALLAWALLAH is the X-factor. She's a 50-1 shot based on her few stakes attempts lifetime. But the Candy Ride mare, out of Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Maryfield, popped a race last time in an overnight stakes at Gulfstream on June 6 that screams off the pace. Her trainer Juan Carlos Avila was white-hot with 35% wins and 55% in the exacta at GP during the month of June, according to Betmix stats. She got hot exactly when the barn got hot, and sizzled a 1:22-2/5, wire-to-wire romp that puts her in upset contention if repeated.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ESTILO TALENTOSO is 14-14 in the trifecta lifetime, including 7 times over this same trip and 6 times at Gulfstream.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HALLAWALLAH, for the reasons outlined above, has me intrigued at 20-1 in the morning line.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$30 win HALLAWALLAH. $23 exacta box HALLAWALLAH and ESTILO TALENTOSO ($46). $4 exacta key-box HALLAWALLAH with CE CE, LAURA'S LIGHT and SOUND MACHINE ($24).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:40 AM

Mitchell Newman

After 3 straight series Unders between the Hawks and the Bucks, Game Five at Fiserv Forum eclipsed the posted total by a whopping 22 points and it did so with both Trae Young and Giannis Antetokoumnpo watching from the bench! Go figure?!?!

Heading back to an Under here for Saturday night in Game Six of this series, as the Under numbers still hold sway even after Thursday's easy Over.

Milwaukee enters this close-out game still having played 8 of their last 12 games this postseason Under the total and the Bucks are 10-6 Under for the playoffs.

Atlanta is still Under in 7 of their last 9 this postseason and in 12 of 17 overall this playoff season.

With Young and Giannis both still serious question marks, look for this game to feature more defense being played and the baskets a little harder to come by.

Bucks and Hawks Under the total.

2* MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:41 AM

Gus Augustine

Thursday I delivered a player prop in the NBA playoffs with Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 3 1/2 3-pointers. He canned seven.

Friday I delivered a player prop in the Stanley Cup Final with Shea Weber Over 2 1/2 shots on goal. He fired five.

So why not make it three in row with player props.

Tonight we're going to look at Brook Lopez over 15 1/2 points in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final. It's clear Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer should have the confidence in Lopez, after he dominated with his post presence, scoring 33 points and seven rebounds in Game 5.

In 16 playoff games, Lopez has scored more than 15 points six times. He is averaging just 13.5 points in the playoffs, but against Atlanta he's averaging 16.5 per game. If you add in the regular season, where the teams played thrice and he tallied 42 overall, guess what his overall average is... 15.5 points. Those oddsmakers think they're smart, don't they?

With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely missing this one, Budenholzer now realizes he has a third option after Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton, someone who can take over a game.

As much as I respect John Collins' game, I don't think he can stop Lopez after the other night. The confidence is there, and if Budenholzer puts his faith in Lopez, it'll implore him to step up once again.

My free winner to you is Lopez to score over the 15 1/2 points in Game 6.

4* OVER Brook Lopez

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:41 AM

Jay McNeil

Saturday night freebie is the Under in the Dodgers-Nationals game with Clayton Kershaw and Paola Espino on the mound.

The series between the teams opened with an Under on Thursday.

Last night the bats were loud as the teams combined for 14 runs and an Over.

Even with that Over, LA is now on an overall 6-1-1 Under run for their last 8 games played.

Washington enters Saturday play with 4 Unders in their last 7 played after the Friday night Over and the Nationals have also seen 6 of their last 7 played against N.L. West teams land Under the total.

Kershaw has allowed just 6 earned runs to score on 19 hits over his last 4 starts which have totaled 26 innings pitched.

Espino has split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen and sports an ERA of 2.02 for his near 36 innings worked and he just pitched 5 scoreless innings in a start against the Mets his last time out.

I have a feeling the strong Under numbers for both teams continue tonight.

Dodgers-Nationals Under the total.

2* L.A. DODGERS-WASHINGTON UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:42 AM

Chris Jordan

My complimentary winner for Saturday night is off the late card, a little something to bail you out, with the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.

Seattle eked out a victory in the latter innings last night, so motivation will carry over for this one, and keep the flame going into Saturday night.

Both starters have been sketchy this season, with Texas' Jordan Lyles (3-5) and Seattle's Marco Gonzales (1-4) both sporting ERAs over 5.

But Gonzales, albeit 0-1 in Seattle, has been more efficient at home with a 3.81 ERA, as opposed to his 6.98 ERA with a suitcase in hand.

Lyles has been inefficient in Arlington (5.14) and on the road (5.10), where he is also 1-4. Lyles, who did just beat the Royals (oh boy!), is 1-2 in his last six games (five starts) and has a 3.93 ERA to show for it. The ERA is better than his season marks, but he was also tapped for six home runs, an average of one per outing, or, a little more than one per start.

Worst part, Lyles is 1-5 lifetime against Seattle, with a 6.23 ERA in 10 starts, including a 1-3 showing with a 4.99 ERA in six appearances at Safeco Field.

Give me the M's tonight.

4* MARINERS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:42 AM

Trace Adams

Saturday's free play comes in the Bronx as I side with the Mets over the slumping Yankees who were mercifully rained-out in their series finale at home on Thursday against the Angels.

The Yankees were also rained out yesterday in what was supposed to be the series opener versus the Mets.

Last time with saw the Yanks, they were busy giving up 7 runs in the 9th inning on Wednesday night as they blew a 4-run lead to the Angels.

The Yankees come into this Subway Series losers of 5 of their last 6 games.

Starter Jordan Montgomery has allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, so expect the Mets to post some crooked digits tonight.

The Mets have been slumping a bit of late, losers of their last pair and 4 of their last 5, but I trust their chemistry and especially trust Taijuan Walker who stands at 6-3 with the team 11-3 behind him when he starts.

The Mets hold a slight 5-4 edge the last 9 times these cross-town rivals have faced one another and I like them to draw first blood tonight.

2* N.Y. METS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:43 AM

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White Sox @ Tigers
TIME: 4:10 PM EST
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2021, 11:44 AM

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Rangers @ Mariners
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