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TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | 06/30 | 4:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay is just 4-9 in its past 13 overall, has lost five in a row vs. lefties (Nats start Jon Lester). and is sitting three of its best hitters in Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle. I honestly don't know why the Rays are favored on the road against a surging Nationals team. Pitching-wise, Tampa is using an opener in Dennis Rasmussen, who will then turn the game over to Michael Wacha (1-2, 4.66), who is meh. Washington's 15-5 record since June 9 leads the majors and Kyle Schwarber has become just the third player ever with 16 homers in an 18-game stretch. FYI: He has gone yard twice in 12 at-bats off Wacha. I'll happily take Washington on the runline at -145.
+3826 67-24-4 IN LAST 95 MLB PICKS
+270 6-3 IN LAST 9 TB ATS PICKS
+199 3-1 IN LAST 4 WAS ATS PICKS
2:01 PM
SEATTLE @ TORONTO | 06/30 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays have won eight of nine and I think they keep it rolling against Seattle's Justus Sheffield, who's 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA on the road. The Mariners have been a great story, but they're 17-23 on the road and have a minus-49 run differential despite being two games above .500. Both teams are starting left-handers. The Blue Jays rank seventh in OPS against southpaws, the Mariners 28th.
PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO | 06/30 | 3:10 PM EDT
UNDER 11.5
ANALYSIS: A typically big total for a game in Denver as these teams wrap up a series with a Wednesday matinee. The quick turnaround from Tuesday night should help the two starting pitchers (Bucs' Chad Kuhl, Rockies' Jon Gray) considering they weren't in action Tuesday. The winds shouldn't be factor. Nearly 70 percent of my model simulations forecast this matchup landing Under 11.5 runs.
+187 8-5 IN LAST 13 MLB PICKS
+575 8-2 IN LAST 10 PIT O/U PICKS
YESTERDAY 7:06 PM
PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO | 06/30 | 3:10 PM EDT
OVER 11
ANALYSIS: The Pirates are 9-0 OU (+4.72 rpg) when RHP Chad Kuhl starts after they won his last start against the current opponent. The Rockies are 8-0 OU (+4.56 rpg) when RHP Jon Gray starts in June and they lost his last start, and 8-0 OU (+5.12 rpg) when they are coming off a game as favorites and they lost their starter's previous two turns.
+2235 133-90-3 IN LAST 226 MLB PICKS
+85 2-1-2 IN LAST 5 COL O/U PICKS
9:45 AM
PHOENIX @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 06/30 | 9:00 PM EDT
UNDER 215
ANALYSIS: The Suns are 0-8 OU (-11.69 ppg) on the road off a home loss in which Deandre Ayton had a double-double, 0-7 OU (-17.64 ppg) on the road off a loss as a favorite in which Devin Booker took more than 20 shots and 0-6 OU (-15.67 ppg) on the road off a loss in which Booker played more than 40 minutes. As a team, the Suns are 0-10 OU (-14.20 ppg) on the road off a loss in which they scored 10 or fewer fast-break points.
+350 20-15 IN LAST 35 NBA O/U PICKS
+80 3-2 IN LAST 5 LAC O/U PICKS
10:14 AM
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI | 06/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: The Reds are 9-0 OU (+4.78 rpg) in the second game of a series as 140-plus home underdogs following a home game in which they lost and never led. The Padres are 8-0 OU (+2.75 rpg) as favorites after a contest in which they stranded at least 18 baserunners, it is before the All-Star break and it's not a series opener.
+2235 133-90-3 IN LAST 226 MLB PICKS
+100 1-0-2 IN LAST 3 CIN O/U PICKS
9:48 AM
KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 06/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox are 12-0 OU (+3.83 rpg) as 140-plus home favorites following a game as favorites when their opponent’s starter has an ERA higher than 4.00 on the season and it is before the All-Star break. The Royals are 9-0 OU (+4.39 rpg) as 140-plus road underdogs after a game as underdogs in which they had 12 or more hits.
+2235 133-90-3 IN LAST 226 MLB PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 KC O/U PICKS
9:42 A
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 06/30 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -145
ANALYSIS: The Braves are 10-0 SU since Sept. 18 as 140-plus favorites after a game as favorites in which Ronald Acuna Jr. struck out at least twice. The Mets are 0-12 in the second game of a series as underdogs following a game as underdogs when their opponent’s starting pitcher has same-season revenge and it is before the All-Star break.
+2235 133-90-3 IN LAST 226 MLB PICKS
+902 22-8 IN LAST 30 ATL ML PICKS
9:38 AM
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | 06/30 | 4:05 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -115
ANALYSIS: The Rays are 11-0 in the second game of a series as favorites against a team that has won at least two straight contests and it is before the All-Star break, and 9-0 as favorites in series finales when they won by one run in their starter’s previous outing. The Nationals are 0-7 in the last game of a home series following a contest in which they hit multiple home runs and it is before the All-Star break.
+2235 133-90-3 IN LAST 226 MLB PICKS
+1115 19-7 IN LAST 26 TB ML PICKS
+375 8-3 IN LAST 11 WAS ML PICKS
9:35 AM
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 06/30 | 9:40 PM EDT
OAKLAND -195
ANALYSIS: The Athletics are 21-0 as 200-plus favorites after a home game in which they hit multiple home runs and 15-0 as 140-plus favorites with Chris Bassitt when they scored first in his previous start. The Rangers are 0-19 as 170-plus road underdogs following a road game in which they hit at least one home run.
+2235 133-90-3 IN LAST 226 MLB PICKS
+665 8-1 IN LAST 9 OAK ML PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 TEX ML PICKS
9:32 AM
CHI. CUBS @ MILWAUKEE | 06/30 | 2:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -145
ANALYSIS: The Cubs simply are not hitting during a five-game skid and will again be without Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo (and Jason Heyward, but he's not very good these days) in the matinee finale in Beer Town. Chicago faces one of Milwaukee's top pitching prospects in lefty Aaron Ashby, son of former MLB pitcher Andy Ashby. Aaron, making his big-league debut, was stellar this past spring and has struck out 58 in 36 Triple-A innings this year. I'm sure it will be a bullpen day for the most part -- and Milwaukee's bullpen is excellent. The Cubs start Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.32). His road ERA is 6.17. The Brewers are starting all their key guys in the lineup.
+3826 67-24-4 IN LAST 95 MLB PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MIL ML PICKS
+75 2-1 IN LAST 3 CHC ML PICKS
11:38 AM
PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO | 06/30 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -145
ANALYSIS: This seems like a solid price on Colorado at home, where it's a pretty good team and behind Jon Gray (4-3, 3.97). He returned from an injured list stint last Friday with a dominant effort in Milwaukee. Which was unusual because Gray is way better at home (3.25 ERA) than away (5.24 ERA). Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA on the road. The Rox are 10-2 in their past 12 at home vs. right-handers.
+3826 67-24-4 IN LAST 95 MLB PICKS
+340 8-3 IN LAST 11 PIT ML PICKS
+199 4-2 IN LAST 6 COL ML PICKS
YESTERDAY 9:53 PM
Platinum Plays for $100 each
510pm 974 Astros run line -1.5
410pm 970 Red Sox -155
405pm 963 Over 10 on Angels
Gold Plays for $80
1110am 954 Brewers -149
Bronze Plays for $30
10015am 952 Cardinals run line -1.5
405pm 958 Phillies run line -1.5
407pm 966 Over 10.5 on Toronto
410pm 970 Over 11 on Boston
110pm 980 Over 8 on Indians game one
105pm 977 Over 9.5 on Tampa Bay
510pm 974 Over 9.5 on Astros
Two team parlay for $50
6pm 531 Under 215 on Suns
5pm 081 Under 5 on Canadiens
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