Service Plays Thursday 7/1/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

PLAY: Hawks/Bucks OVER 215
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY

To me this is a classic over reaction number. We know it's not likely Giannis isn't going to play, but nothing surprises me. We think Young will play, but again, maybe not. Let's even assume the both sit. Atlanta just scored 110 without Young. The Bucks played eleven games (and won six) without Giannis, so both teams have time playing without the injured star. Milwaukee just saw how the‚ Hawks would/might play without Young. The Hawks know how the Bucks play without Giannis. Okay, enough on that. This could be as close to an elimination game for the Bucks without actually being one as it gets. They have a great record at home, not having lost at home prior to game one since 4/19. The Hawks know they can beat a full strength Bucks team on the road. The Hawks know this is as close to ending the series without actually ending the series as it gets. We know the Bucks have scorers beyond Giannis with Holiday and Middleton. What's also true is that although the Bucks may have the best two players on the court after the stars, the Hawks probably have the next six best players and are deeper. So, Atlanta will be the ones to push the pace and the Bucks will be able to keep up. I expect a close game (lean Bucks a bit) and that only helps late. What's also interesting is that the 1H total is around 110 - which is higher than you'd expect for a 215ish game. So, I am not biting the obvious apples tonight - just look at what the final was in the Western Conference last night.


FWIW I did add the Bucks ML.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Green Falcon Picks

Atletico Mineiro MG - AC Goianiense GO
Brazil, Serie A, 00:00 CET (Jul 2) / 6:00 PM ET
1.1 Units: AC Goianiense GO +0.75 -113

Record since Feb 20, when service started:
73-49-5 (65-45.5-5) / +51.908 Units

[dawggy]

JM SPORTS

• Game: (909) New York Mets at (910) Atlanta Braves
  Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 7:20 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3 units
  Play: 1H New York Mets -175 J Degrom (RHP), I Anderson (RHP) Must Start
  
  3 unit 1H New York Mets (-175) over Atlanta Braves (deGrom/Anderson) –
  How about deGrom and the New York Mets, deGrom again is in the running and the conversation for best pitcher in the league without a doubt and he has the stat line to prove it. DeGrom has kept his ERA down to 0.69 FOR THE YEAR, with a 0.526 WHIP, and allowing only 6 runs in 78 innings pitched, the Mets are 10-3 in his starts this year. DeGrom has been even more impressive on the road, he has yet to allow a run this year away from Citi field, he has pitched 25 innings in those road games and the Mets are 3-1 in his 4 road starts. New York is also 18-7 TY as a favorite, including 18-4 as a F vs. RHP when the line is less then (-125), including 4 in a row as an AF vs. RHP (+6.00 run differential in those 4 games), and when that line less then (-149) the Mets are 14-4 TY. Atlanta on the other hand had an impressive offensive showing yesterday but now they have to take the field vs. one of the best pitchers in the league and a former Cy Young winner. The Braves are 1-6 in their L7 as a dog coming off a 10+ run performance, they are 2-9 TY as a dog coming off a W, and deGrom has a 1.88 career ERA vs. ATL. Atlanta has also struggled with starting pitchers that have the most control, they are 2-19 TY vs. SP w/ WHIP < 1 (including 1-8 at home, and 0-9 in the L9 overall), and they are 1-8 TY vs. SP w/ a WHIP under 0.6!!
  
• Game: (913) San Francisco Giants at (914) Arizona Diamondbacks
  Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 9:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: San Francisco Giants -137 J Cueto (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
  
  4 unit San Fransisco Giants (-137) over Arizona Diamondbacks (Cueto/Kelly) –
  It has been said before this year that the Arizona Diamondbacks are on of the teams that is definitely struggling this year. They are 7-47 in their L54 games (3.56 AF ; 5.83 AA), and they are coming into this game off 4 straight losses, and so far this season they are 3-29 in their L32 games off at least B2B L's (outscored by 2.35 runs). They have also struggled a lot in the first game of the series, they are 1-13 in their L14 series openers and they are 5-15 in the L20 openers vs. RHP (outscored by 2.5 runs). I also think to say that the Giants are definitely coming to the point of having the Diamondbacks number this season, they are 6-0 TY, and 11-4 inside Arizona's own stadium in the L3 season. Even outside of the divisional the Giants has have success recently, they are 85-46 in their L131 games as a favorite (including 31-12 run) and San Fran is 7-2 in the L9 as a favorite on the road. Even though SF has coming on a little bit of a losing streak, they are 5-2 TY off B2B losses (including 4-1 in the L5 on the road), and the Giants have also had a day to rest, and in the L9 games following a day off they are 9-0 (outscoring opponents 5.78 AF ; 1.67 AA). San Fran has definitely come out of the gate hot in their recent series, they are 17-4 in the first game of the L21 series, and 7-2 in the L9 series on the road. It also won't hurt that the Diamondbacks have Kelly on the mound who has posted an ERA over 4.5, when SF sees pitching like that, it's a whole different ball game. They are 12-4 in the L16 with an ERA that high (5-1 in the L6 on the road), 6-0 on the year when coming off a L, and 12-3 TY vs. RHP with that kind of ERA.

[dawggy]

JOSEPH D'AMICO


Joe Ds 72 PCT NBA VEGAS INSIDER MOVE

• Game: (541) Atlanta Hawks at (542) Milwaukee Bucks
  Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 8:35 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: Total Under 215.0 (-110)
  
  Under in the Hawks/Bucks matchup.
  VI MOVE.
  Games 541/542.
  5:35 pm pst.
  
  Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both hampered and listed as questionable and doubtful (check status on both). Whether one or both play or not, prompts us to look at an angle of a lower scoring contest. The last three meetings all went under the total. With the series tied, both teams will rely on their defenses. Expect a much slower pace here. The under is 5-1 L6 meetings, 7-1 in the Hawks L8 overall, and 8-2-1 in the Bucks L11 overall. Take the under. Thank you.

• Joe DAmicos MLB BEST BET
  Game: (913) San Francisco Giants at (914) Arizona Diamondbacks
  Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 9:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4 units
  Play: San Francisco Giants -137 J Cueto (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
  
  Giants.
  Best Bet.
  Game 913.
  6:40 pm pst.
  
  San Francisco has dropped their last three and still sits atop the NL West. Arizona is in a four-game slide and dwells in the division cellar with the worst record in all of baseball. The Giants have dominated the Diamondbacks, winning all six meetings this season and nine straight going back to last season. Cueto (6-3, 3.63) and Kelly (4-7, 4.73) will take the hill here. Cueto is 11-3 with a 3.21 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. Arizona. Kelly is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts vs. San Fran in 2021. The Giants, both at the plate and on the mound, rank among the best in the Majors. The D-Backs are not just struggling, their numbers are downright atrocious, ranking 19th in scoring and 29th in pitching. San Francisco is 4-0 L4 at Arizona, 9-0 L9 following an off day, and 4-1 L5 as a road favorite. Take the Giants. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andrew McInnis 4%
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres +105 R Weathers (LHP), L Castillo (RHP) Must Start

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Winningham

MLB

San Francisco -140 @ Arizona

Specify pitching

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan HUGE THURSDAY TRIPLE DIAMOND

Astros RunLine

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover MLB 2-FOR-1 THURSDAY SWEEP

Giants
Rockies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker TRIPLE DIME MLB TOTAL DESTROYER

Giants/Dbacks Under 9

Bonus Hawks/Bucks Over 214.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Severance

FEATURED PICK

TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 07/01 | 3:37 PM EDT
OAKLAND -171
ANALYSIS: The Rangers are 11-28 on the road and face Oakland's best pitcher in lefty Sean Manaea (6-4, 2.91 ERA). He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, including one run or fewer six times. His ERA is 1.24 in that stretch. Manaea 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA career vs. the Rangers. They go with Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.63), who is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA on the road. I'd consider Oakland on the runline, but the A's never seem to score much when Manaea pitches. Texas is 2-9 in its past 11 vs. southpaws.

+4426 73-24-4 IN LAST 101 MLB PICKS
+600 6-0 IN LAST 6 OAK ML PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 TEX ML PICKS
1:27 PM

N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 07/01 | 7:20 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -157
ANALYSIS: I agree with Micah Roberts -- getting Mets ace Jacob deGrom with his ridiculous 0.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP under a price of -160 is something that has to be taken. The only other time the Mets were below -160 with the NL Cy Young and MVP favorite on the mound this year was June 5 in San Diego when the Mets were around -120 and won 4-0. DeGrom HAS NOT ALLOWED AN EARNED RUN ON THE ROAD YET. That's impossible. Oh, and he's hitting .414 as a batter.

+4426 73-24-4 IN LAST 101 MLB PICKS
+725 11-3 IN LAST 14 NYM ML PICKS
+500 5-0 IN LAST 5 ATL ML PICKS
2:34 PM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Bollman

HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND | 07/01 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +165
ANALYSIS: This is really a fade the Astros pick more than anything. Since their 11 game win streak they have looked awful, losing two of three to the Tigers and getting swept at home by the Orioles. Now they head back on the road after losing four straight. Framber Valdez has been good this season but he has only started six games and hes been getting more hittable. JC Mejia is really hit or miss when it comes to his performance but he has been better at home and he is coming off his best start of the season. Take the dog.

+640 67-51 IN LAST 118 MLB PICKS
+1478 37-17 IN LAST 54 CLE ML PICKS
+222 7-3 IN LAST 10 HOU ML PICKS
10:52 AM

TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 07/01 | 3:37 PM EDT
OAKLAND -160
ANALYSIS: Sean Manaea has been one of the Athletics best pitchers this season and he is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA at home. In June, he was 3-2 with a 1.13 ERA. Dane Dunning has been much worse on the road going 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA in seven starts and he has been struggling in June going 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA. The Rangers have the seventh worst wOBA against lefties in the league and they are 7-11 against lefty starters on the road this season. The Athletics are 26-19 at home while the Rangers are 11-28 on the road.

+640 67-51 IN LAST 118 MLB PICKS
+281 27-19 IN LAST 46 TEX ML PICKS
+90 3-2 IN LAST 5 OAK ML PICKS
10:52 AM

N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 07/01 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA +147
ANALYSIS: Yes, I know Degrom is starting, and yes I know the Mets have a good bullpen. But the Braves just put up 20 runs last night and it is supposed to be 89 degrees and humid tonight, so I don’t think Degrom will pitch deeper than seven innings even if he pitches a gem. Not to mention, that helps the hitting conditions. Ian Anderson didn’t allow a run in his most recent outing against the Mets and he is more than capable of keeping this game close. The Mets score the second fewest runs per game in the league and the Mets are 17-24 on the road. Take the dog.

+640 67-51 IN LAST 118 MLB PICKS
+40 2-1 IN LAST 3 NYM ML PICKS
10:51 AM

SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI | 07/01 | 7:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO +105
ANALYSIS: Ryan Weathers is making his first start for the Padres since being sent down to get his pitch count up, and he has been good with a 2.47 ERA on the season. Luis Castillo has actually been much better as of late, but he is still allowing a lot of walks. He pitched six innings allowing three runs in San Diego two starts ago and picked up the loss. The Reds went up 4-0 in the first inning of yesterday’s game but managed to blow the lead by the fifth inning. The Reds have the sixth worst wOBA in the league against lefties and for whatever reason they just can’t seem to figure out the Padres yet this season losing all six games. Take the Padres with plus money.

+640 67-51 IN LAST 118 MLB PICKS
10:48 AM

L.A. DODGERS @ WASHINGTON | 07/01 | 7:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +125
ANALYSIS: Patrick Corbin has been much better at home this season going 5-2 with a 4.40 ERA in eight starts, and he has also thrown three straight quality starts. Tony Gonsolin has only made four starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than an earned run in a start, but also hasn’t pitched more than four innings yet this season. Not to mention those starts weren’t against the best lineups. The Dodgers have won five in a row but all those games were at home. They are 21-18 on the road and 22-20 against teams above .500 this season. The Nats have won four straight and they went 19-9 in the month of June. The Dodgers are 22nd in the league in wOBA against lefties and they are 16-13 on the road against lefty starters. Take the home dog.

+640 67-51 IN LAST 118 MLB PICKS
+175 8-6 IN LAST 14 WAS ML PICKS
+75 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAD ML PICKS
10:48 AM

[moe]

Ziti sports


Philadelphia -122 Miami (6:05 PM)
San Diego vs. Cincinnati UNDER 9 +100 (7:10 PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Balfe

Reds -15/sd
Atl./milw.OVER 215

[Player1]

World Worst Picker

Bucks

we take: Hawks