Tuesday 7/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 05:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 7/13/21

July 13, 2021
FIVE TAKEAWAYS – FROM THE WEEKEND CONCLUDING JULY 11, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper/analyst

1 – It may be difficult to truly appreciate the impact that Galileo had on thoroughbred racing, both on the track and in his record-setting career at stud. Arguably the sport’s most influential stallion in the past half-century if not of all time, the winner of both the Epsom Darby and the Irish Derby in 2001 was the product of 14-time champion sire Sadler’s Wells and Arc winner Urban Sea and thus truly epitomized the old saying, “breed the best to the best and hope for the best.” At stud, Galileo sired at last count 338 stakes winners, including the undefeated Frankel, certainly one of the greatest race horses in European history.

Galileo’s influence is guaranteed to carry on through his sons and daughters for as long as The Jockey Club keeps records. He was euthanized July 10 at the age of 23 due to a chronic injury to his left fore front, hours before his 3-year-old son of Bolshoi Ballet became his 91st Grade/Goup-1 winner when capturing the Belmont Derby-G1.

2 – Trainer Aidan O’Brien is properly regarded as one of the world’s greatest trainers but gamblers who have backed his Irish-based runners in New York in the past few years have been wondering what the hype is all about. Having a record of something like 1-for-61 prior to his sending Santa Barbara and Bolshoi Ballet across the pond gave many handicappers what proved to be an unnecessary reason for pause in the Belmont Oaks-G1 and Belmont Derby-G1, respectively, even though both imports appeared on resume to be absolute standouts. Both runners left at just slightly better than even money, with Santa Barbara accelerating impressively in the closing stages and win the Oaks as much best and then an hour later Bolshoi Ballet taking an overland journey to produce a smart score in the Derby.

It must be noted that they are 3-year-olds and thus have plenty of room for further development. However, neither are considered to be at the top of the list among those that could venture to Del Mar in the fall for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup festival, a scary thought for an American long distance turf contingent that, as usual, appears at the midpoint of the season to be only slightly above ordinary.

3 – It’ll be interesting to see if Oaklawn Park’s decision to move next year’s $1.2 million Arkansas Derby-G1 up to April 2, five weeks prior to the Run for the Roses rather than its traditional three week slot, has any impact on the placement of the yet-to-be-scheduled $750,000 Florida Derby-G1, which, if tradition holds, would be positioned to run on that same day. One would think that with a more lucrative purse of $450,000, the Arkansas Derby might be in line to attract the stronger field. However, when it comes to Kentucky Derby preparation, most horsemen are far less concerned about a purse discrepancy than taking the path of least resistance towards the accumulation of points that assures a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May.

Gulfstream Park management could move the Florida Derby to the next day (Sunday), wait a week and make it a Stronach Group coast-to-coast double header with the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby-G1, or simply stand pat. As a loyal employee, whatever management decides is officially fine by me.

4 – As impressive as any performance witnessed during the past weekend was the runaway romp by Bella Sofia in a first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds fillies Sunday at Belmont Park. The margin of victory (six and one-half lengths) and the manner in which the win was accomplished (she easily disposed of a pace rival and then drew off with a ton left) surely stamps the daughter of Awesome Patriot as a legitimate threat to repeat on the raise when facing graded stakes company at Saratoga. Though she won her debut by more than 11 lengths and then was beaten just a length by (at-the-time) undefeated Australasia in the listed Jersey Girl S. last month, this effort left her previous two outings far behind while earning an Equibase speed figure of 112, easily a career top.

It’s hard to believe that the Rudy Rodriguez-trained filly brought only $20,000 at the 2020 OBS June sale, though to be fair she was a sibling to nobody and her 10 2/5 seconds breeze during the preview session was as visually average at best.

5 – It’s been getting worse by the year but in 2021 the proliferation of mis-timed fractions and final times of races throughout North America has reached a level of absurdity. Not a day goes by when horse players, especially those that depend on accurate speed figures as the backbone of their handicapping process, aren’t burdened with charts that are peppered with the infuriating “hand-timed” designation. What’s worse is when final times are clearly wrong, and the tracks don’t even both to issue a correction.

On Sunday alone, the Equibase official chart failed to list any fractions or final time associated with the featured River Memories Stakes at Belmont Park. We put a man on the moon more than 50 years ago. It shouldn’t be that difficult to accurately clock a horse race.
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FIVE TAKEAWAYS – FROM THE WEEKEND CONCLUDING JULY 5, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – The most significant performance of the extended holiday weekend comes courtesy of St Mark’s Basilica in his nothing-short-of-exceptional victory in the 10F Coral-Eclipse S.-G1 at Sandown on Saturday. After winning three previous Group-1 races against his own age group, including the Dewhurst S. at Newmarket, the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp and the French Derby at Chantilly, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt made a mockery of older rivals, chief among them Saudi Cup-G1 and Dubai Sheema Classic-G1 winner Mishriff, while producing the type of acceleration two furlongs out that only the great ones possess.

The French-bred son of Siyouni must now be rated the best horse in Europe, if not the entire planet, and would be a wonderful addition to any Breeders’ Cup field, though he may very well have other fish to fry overseas in the fall. "Of all the times we've trained horses through all the years, I can't remember that we've had (a performance) like that," said O'Brien.

2 – A critical race at Belmont Park for older horses, the 10F Suburban S.-G2, offered a rematch of the first two finishers from the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1, the unbeaten Happy Saver, and the Dubai World Cup-G1 winner Mystic Guide. But over a sloppy sealed surface that neither appeared to grab, it was Max Player (not Maxfield) who sprung the upset in a race that proved little other than the winner’s affinity for a muddy track.

A distant third in both the Belmont S.-G1 and the Travers S.-G1 last summer and then nowhere to be found in his four most recent races (including a 24-length drubbing to the aforementioned Mishriff in Saudi Arabia), the son of Honor Code was game in victory but earned only a 101 Beyer speed figure, an indication that the others ran down to his level, not the other way around. Attached to the victory is an all-expense paid ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 at Del Mar. But there will be no rain on the first Saturday in November in San Diego county.

3 – A legitimate Grade-1 front-runner such as Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 winner Knicks Go facing a handful of thoroughly outclassed rivals that have no chance to apply even a modest amount of early pressure is the perfect recipe for the easily predictable outcome of the 9F Prairie Meadows Cornhusker-G3 Friday evening. His 10 length margin of victory manufactured a career-top 113 Beyer Speed Figure while reaffirming what trainer Brad Cox said after the 5-year-old son of Paynter finished a fading fourth at 4/5 in the Met Mile in early June. “He’s a two-turn horse, was Cox’s simple but entirely accurate explanation.

Now, with 21 races on his resume, Knick’s Go clearly has established one other indisputable characteristic: when facing top class company; he is a dyed-in-the-wool need-the-lead type. Though unproven at 10 furlongs – but certain to stay the trip under pristine conditions - he could very well resurface at Del Mar August 21 for the $750,000 Pacifica Classic-G1 in what would serve as a dress rehearsal for the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 that will be staged over that same course and distance 11 weeks later. Mystic Guide could be headed in the same direction, as well.

4 – It’s the time of the year when we’re inclined to seek out potentially high-class, late-developing 3-year-olds – those that weren’t ready or seasoned enough for the Triple Crown – to make an impact in the sophomore ranks and perhaps even steal an Eclipse Award, such as what Arrogate did a few years back. While he’s nowhere near that level just yet, First Captain will have his chance to establish championship credentials at Saratoga, with the 10F Travers S.-G1 his late-summer goal. Unbeaten in three starts but yet to race farther than a mile, the son of Curlin, at 40 cents on the dollar, was workmanlike when grinding out a one and three-quarter length victory in the Dwyer S.-G3 at Belmont Park on Monday. The Beyer speed figure was a just okay 90, a career low.

However, Shug’s colt has a pedigree to excel over a classic distance and farther. In as division which currently has Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie squarely at the top, a new shooter such as this $1.5 million yearling purchase, may still be capable of bringing fresh blood and new life to a division that remains there for the taking.

5 – Gamine has been beaten just once in nine starts. She failed to see out the nine-furlong trip in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks-G1 when third (and then subsequently disqualified for a bad test) but has been otherwise perfect, most recently coasting home to register a 10-length romp in the 6.5F Great Lady M. S.-G2 at Los Alamitos on Monday. In any other year, she’d probably be sent to Saratoga, where she won the 2020 Test S.-G1 by seven lengths, but a trip to New York isn’t currently an option for trainer Bob Baffert. We anticipate Gamine will remain in the West and be given a run, perhaps two, to prepare to defend her title in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1.

The Rancho Bernardo (Aug. 20) at Del Mar logically would be next, but that race is just a Grade-3 with a $100,000 guaranteed purse and will be carded under handicap conditions, so you have to wonder just how much weight she’d be asked to carry in order to make the race competitive. Facing males eight days later in the 7F Pat O’Brien for twice the purse money (it’s a win-and-your-in race, too) might be a better option, especially under the 122 lb. impost she would carry, according to the conditions of the race.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 05:21 AM

Monday Myths: Fast Starts Imperative at Saratoga & Del Mar?

July 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

At the important boutique meets, it’s imperative for jockeys and trainers to get off to a fast start.

Background:

Given the relatively short nature of high-class racing meetings at tracks like Saratoga and Del Mar, which get underway this week, horseplayers long have long leaned on those jockeys and trainers who get off to a successful start to the meet. The thought is that momentum is important and time is short on correcting a lack of it.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 3 years at Del Mar and Saratoga, looking at the July starts for jockeys and trainers and how they corresponded over the course of the meeting (which ends on Labor Day at Saratoga and Del Mar). Jockeys and trainers were listed in 1-5 position in the standings for the July victories and for end-of-meet totals. In cases where trainers or jockeys tied for number of victories, they were listed in order of win percentage.

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Trainer 2020 fast starts Saratoga: Christophe Clement, Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Mike Maker, Linda Rice
Trainer 2020 how they finished Saratoga: Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Christophe Clement, Mike Maker, Linda Rice
Jockey 2020 fast starts Saratoga: Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario, Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Lezcano, Tyler Gaffalione
Jockey 2020 how they finished Saratoga: Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano

Trainer 2020 fast starts Del Mar: Peter Miller, Mike McCarthy, Peter Eurton, Richard Baltas, Eric Kruljac
Trainer 2020 how they finished Del Mar: Peter Miller, Phil D’Amato, Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill, John Sadler
Jockey 2020 fast starts Del Mar: Umberto Rispoli, Flavien Prat, Abel Cedillo, Tiago Pereira, Juan Hernandez
Jockey 2020 how they finished Del Mar: Flavien Prat, Umberto Rispoli, Abel Cedillo, Juan Hernandez, Tiago Pereira

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Trainer 2019 fast starts Saratoga: Chad Brown, Bill Mott, Linda Rice, Jeremiah Englehart, Todd Pletcher
Trainer 2019 how they finished Saratoga: Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen, Jeremiah Englehart, Jason Servis
Jockey 2019 fast starts Saratoga: Jose Ortiz, Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz Jr., Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano
Jockey 2019 how they finished Saratoga: Jose Ortiz, Irad Ortiz Jr., Javier Castellano, Joel Rosario, Luis Saez

Trainer 2019 fast starts Del Mar: Peter Miller, Doug O’Neill, John Sadler, Richard Baltas, Jeff Mullins
Trainer 2019 how they finished Del Mar: Doug O’Neill, Peter Miller, Richard Baltas, John Sadler, Phil D’Amato
Jockey 2019 fast starts Del Mar: Flavien Prat, Drayden Van Dyke, Rafael Bejarano, Ruben Fuentes, Joe Talamo
Jockey 2019 how they finished Del Mar: Flavien Prat, Drayden Van Dyke, Abel Cedillo, Joe Talamo, Ruben Fuentes

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Trainer 2018 fast starts Saratoga: Chad Brown, Steve Asmussen, Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher, Joe Sharp
Trainer 2018 how they finished Saratoga: Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Rudy Rodriguez, Bill Mott, Steve Asmussen
Jockey 2018 fast starts Saratoga: Luis Saez, Irad Ortiz Jr., Ricardo Santana Jr., John Velazquez, Javier Castellano
Jockey 2018 how they finished Saratoga: Irad Ortiz Jr., Javier Castellano, Jose Ortiz, Manny Franco, Luis Saez

Trainer 2018 fast starts Del Mar: Jerry Hollendorfer, Peter Miller, Doug O’Neill, John Sadler, Phil D’Amato
Trainer 2018 how they finished Del Mar: Peter Miller, Doug O’Neill, Jerry Hollendorfer, Richard Baltas, Phil D’Amato
Jockey 2018 fast starts Del Mar: Flavien Prat, Drayden Van Dyke, Mario Gutierrez, Geovanni Franco, Tyler Baze
Jockey 2018 how they finished Del Mar: Drayden Van Dyke, Flavien Prat, Tyler Baze, Assael Espinoza, Heriberto Figueroa

Overall Findings:

At Saratoga, 11 of the 15 top-5 finishes the past 3 years were trainers who were among the top-5 fastest starters each meet. Trainer Todd Pletcher has improved his position in the standings, finishing better than he started, each of the past 3 years while top-5 in all lists. Chad Brown has held his position early and at meet’s end in each of the 3 years, winning the meet when off to a leading July and finishing second when second-best in July. As for the Saratoga jockeys, the same 11-for-15 record showed as to July fast starters remaining in the top-5 at meet’s end. Only once in the 3 years did the leading jockey after July hold on to win the riding title. Irad Ortiz Jr. didn’t lead after July in any of the last 3 seasons, but improved his standing all 3 years by meet’s end with 2 titles and a runner-up.

At Del Mar, a lower 9 of 15 top-5 finishes in the past 3 years were trainers who were among the top-5 fastest starters each meet. Trainer Peter Miller is notorious for fast starts here and rarely fades. Doug O’Neill’s barn each year finished better at meet’s end than in July, but volume speaks a lot to that over the meeting. Still, he’s not a fast starter. Among Del Mar jockeys, again only 9 of the top-15 spots at meet’s end went to riders who were top-5 through July. But at the very top, note the 1-2 jockeys after July have continued their dominance for the meet as 1-2 in the final standings.

Bottom line:

Hot starters at Saratoga fared a bit better in sustaining their dominance than at Del Mar. At both venues, it’s better to jump off to a top-5 start than not, if you want to wind up in the top-5 on Labor Day. But it’s not by as dominant a margin as you might think (73% stayed top-5 in jockey/trainer standings at Saratoga, 60% at Del Mar). That you consistently see many of the same names in these top-5 lists summer after summer is no coincidence. And it’s significant that at both tracks you didn’t see a single meet titlist in either division who wasn’t among the top-3 in their respective ranks after July. So is a fast start at Saratoga and Del Mar imperative to success? I’d lean mostly true, and more so at Saratoga, after looking at the data.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out each trainer or jockey’s individual performance early and late in the meet. Trainer Peter Miller at Del Mar has won 31% in July the past 3 years, and 23% the remainder of the meet. If you’re betting Miller, get down early in the season. On the flip side at Del Mar, trainer Victor Garcia goes from 5% starting slow in July to a whopping 29% in August through Labor Day.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 05:23 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #5

#6 Sail at Sunrise	He has been good in both local starts, and he draws well to get a prompting trip from the outside. A couple of speedy types should go for it, and he may be able to stay in touch and press past late.
#4 Tringale	He's right back in for the tag after handling similar last time out, and he gets the best of the pace draw as he looks for his third in a row.
#3 Fortheluvofbourbon	He has enough pace to battle early, but he also has the ability to ease off it just a bit and finish, giving his rider some options depending on how things play out of the gate.
Race Summary	Sail at Sunrise should offer a fair price to track the speed, as Tringale and Fortheluvofbourbon figure to dominate the wagering action. Best stuff might do.

Parx Racing - Race #8

#4 Midlaner	Willing to forgive the turf try with a pedigree that doesn't really lean that way, and this guy's only local dirt try produced a very easy MCL score from just off the pace. Spy and finish at a price here?
#7 Glory Song	He looks like the one to beat with what feels like a pretty soft pace scenario waiting for him, but he's probably not going to offer a playable price and tends to give away ground late in most of his starts.
#5 Runningforhome	He went off form earlier this year, but he occasionally has some mild tactical pace that might keep him in the frame on a modest set of splits. Underneath player.
Race Summary	Midlaner is quick enough early to keep Glory Song in his sights, and his only local main-track try was very sharp when rolling a softer group. He has some proving to do from a class perspective, but something like that two-back win would keep him in the picture.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#5 Minding Millie	Not sure she beat anything worth writing home about in that Penn score, but it was a pretty solid turf debut while racing off the bench. Lasix probably didn't hurt either.
#12 Glamorous Thunder	She owns some speed and gets down from Grade III company, but she might be a bit overbet with this group as a typically all-or-nothing type.
#6 Zeyaraat	She'll have to fire off the December layoff, but she gets out of stakes company for the first time since her debut win, and she ran okay with a stakes group on the grass at Pimlico last fall.
Race Summary	Minding Millie has some upside in her second turf route while making her second start off the layoff, and she isn't very far off what it'd take to handle this group, including 2/1 ML favorite #2 Una Luna who is probably an underlay while trying the locals for the first time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 05:24 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Monticello - Race #1

#5 PROUDAMERICANGIRL	Sat good trip, blew past second fave when it counted.
#2 IAQUINTA	Speed mission came up short against top one, takes catching again.
#3 J WANDA	Outran odds with a win and two seconds in her last four starts.
Race Summary	Proudamericangirl rode the pocket behind the hellbent, 2-1 leader. She tipped out for the stretch drive and was tons the best, earning a repeat call at the same level. Play 5-2 and 5-3 exactas.

Saratoga Harness - Race #5

#9 BATTLE QUEEN	No luck with post draw, but can factor at double-digit odds.
#3 MAHOMES	Caught the 8-to-5 pace setter to spring an upset at the Meadows.
#1 MR WISCONSIN	Plays to a steady beat, no match for repeater last week.
Race Summary	Battle Queen was trapped 3-deep on the rail from the same, second-tier starting spot. He found room in the passing lane but lacked late kick. He's worth using as part of a 1-3-9 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4

#7 CHIEFS BEACH	Last not true, strong play in the same spot.
#8 MACH IMPACT	Good first gear, can use it well in this field.
#2 STATE OF PLAY	Left too much work to do in latest, moves outside in off claim.
Race Summary	Chiefs Beach, held up by dead cover in the third quarter after the field raced single-file into the far turn, finished with good energy while no threat to the leaders. Expecting a good effort at an okay price after back-to-back wins prior. Play 7-2 and 7-8 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 05:25 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#8 Defence Model	Has enough speed to clear from the outside and has run well in his two starts this year, once in a maiden victory and the latest in a runner-up effort at this price. Shorter distance should help.
#1 Astroman	Makes his first of the year after finishing third in a stakes race to end 2020; looks good, but the class drop is questionable.
#6 Kingoftherainbow	Showed speed in good races and should be able to last longer for the claiming price.
Race Summary	Defense Model turns back to 5.5 furlongs after leading, then finishing second going six furlongs; capable of fighting it out today.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#5 Nobody Listens	Tired for fourth in a stakes running longer last time and had won two straight in sprints; expect a big effort here.
#3 Smokin Richie	Ran off to an easy score on turf vs. N2L company and goes up a step here; speed will always make him dangerous.
#2 Cap de Fuego	On the board in his last two and ran a good third vs. better; can dig in for a major piece here.
Race Summary	Nobody Listens was a clear leader and tired last in a distance stakes race; getting back to a sprint can get him to the winner's circle.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#1 Threatlevelmidnite	Drops out of solid allowance races at Arlington and can get the lead from the inside here; was fourth in her only local grass start.
#5 Lilac Lace	Was a clear winner in her last two at Thistledown and her only start turf produced a win over maidens at Keeneland.
#7 Creative Credit	Comes in from Belterra, where she won her last two races; very quick and can battle from the outside.
Race Summary	Threatleavelmidnite was sharp in her last two and can battle it out here; has good speed and should be able to lead the way.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 3	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 3-4)($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 3:50P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TF CASHYS FIRST DOWN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equiba se Speed Rating. TF RICKY ROCKSTAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RANSACK: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no h orse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	TF CASHYS FIRST DOWN	2/1	4/1
10	TF RICKY ROCKSTAR	6/1	4/1
6	RANSACK	4/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MP ST PAT	1	10/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.9	0.0	0.0
2	JUST PLAIN DEADLY	2	5/1	Slow	0	0	7.5	0.0	0.0
3	RED WHITE AN BLUE	3	12/1	Average	0	0	5.8	0.0	0.0
4	JESS A WILD CARET	4	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	QUICK JETS	5	8/1	Slow	59	38	7.3	0.0	0.0
6	RANSACK	6	4/1	Fast	62	39	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	MP SPECIAL COUNTRY	7	20/1	Slow	0	0	6.3	0.0	0.0
8	TF CASHYS FIRST DOWN	8	2/1	Fast	68	47	2.8	0.0	0.0
9	ACE UP HIS SLEEVE	9	15/1	Slow	0	0	7.2	0.0	0.0
10	TF RICKY ROCKSTAR	10	6/1	Slow	64	52	7.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 6	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $18,100 • Post: 8:16P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 13 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 13 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MADAME TIGER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaste r Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MOVIE SCORE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4	MADAME TIGER	5/2	7/2
5	MOVIE SCORE	3/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	MAGICAL LUNA	7	8/1	Front-runner	85	77	101.7	71.9	64.4
3	INSPIRED GEM	3	4/1	Front-runner	66	80	70.2	68.0	57.5
1	AUSSIE MIST	1	6/1	Front-runner	81	70	61.4	68.4	58.9
2	OUR SWEET GIRL	2	5/1	Front-runner	74	66	51.4	56.8	45.8
4	MADAME TIGER	4	5/2	Stalker	88	74	79.6	78.8	75.8
5	MOVIE SCORE	5	3/1	Stalker	86	82	62.2	78.8	73.8
6	MIDNIGHT MIRACLE	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	78	62.4	71.0	63.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arizona Downs - Race #6 - Post: 4:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 TIGER'S SONG (ML=10/1)
#1 MANCUSO AT THE MIC (ML=5/2)
#7 RIDE FOR GLORY (ML=8/1)

TIGER'S SONG - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This animal wins a lot of dough per start. In the top spot in this race. MANCUSO AT THE MIC - The rider and handler combination have a favorable ROI when they combine forces. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. RIDE FOR GLORY - Really have to figure this race horse is going to be close at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SOLEROCKER (ML=3/1), #2 IT BETTER BE GOLD (ML=7/2), #4 YHA YHA (ML=4/1),

SOLEROCKER - Finished third in his most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. IT BETTER BE GOLD - Don't believe this pony will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure. YHA YHA - Hard to put any money on this gelding on the top end. Likes to end up on the board though.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MANCUSO AT THE MIC - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this gelding. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 60 on Jun 22nd.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 TIGER'S SONG to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A STATE BRED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 WHISPERING ROSE 6/1
# 9 ROYALBONNIELEGACY 8/1
# 10 SMART BROAD 4/1

WHISPERING ROSE has a solid shot to take this race. Dalessandro has shown excellent profits (+33 return on investment ) at this distance/surface. Cruz has a win percent of 18 over the last month. ROYALBONNIELEGACY - Should be given a chance based on the very strong Equibase Speed Fig earned in the last race. Looks competitive for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid numbers in dirt route races lately. SMART BROAD - Has performed strongly as of late in route races, posting a nifty 66 avg Equibase Speed Figure. Is difficult not to consider based on speed figures which have been very good - 63 avg - of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:45 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 4:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#2 MOMS LOVE (ML=9/5)

MOMS LOVE - Trainer Bowersock moves this one down the ladder based on class rating points to face weaker company. Look for a solid race this time out. This filly's last speed rating notched on Mar 17th is at the top in last race speed ratings. Bowersock moves this filly to the main track today. Look for an improvement from the most recent turf race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SIDE ACTION (ML=2/1), #5 LYNBROOKE (ML=3/1), #4 J'S BAILEY ANN (ML=5/1),

SIDE ACTION - This filly finished off the board on October 19th and wasn't near the winner last out either. LYNBROOKE - Trying to beat this participant this time out at the price of 3/1. J'S BAILEY ANN - The eighth place result in the last race was not the greatest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 MOMS LOVE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SIERRA HOTEL 5/1
# 5 MY BOY LOLLIPOP 6/1
# 1 FULLBRIDLEDPHANTOM 5/2

I've got to go with SIERRA HOTEL. Overall the speed figures of this animal look very good in this competition. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of formidable win percentage - 16 percent - at this distance & surface. He looks very strong in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. FULLBRIDLEDPHANTOM - Has earned reliable Equibase Speed Figures in turf route races in the past. Going in a turf route race gives this gelding a solid shot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-13-2021, 10:49 AM

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Tuesday 7/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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