Saturday 7/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (901) Arizona Diamondbacks at (902) Chicago Cubs
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Chicago Cubs -150 M Kelly (RHP), A Mills (RHP) Must Start
2% premium play on the Chicago Cubs to get the job done at home this afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
PLAY: CHICAGO CUBS ML -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

Event: (24445) Darrick Minner at (24446) Darren Elkins
Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Under 2.5 (+105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Los Angeles Galaxy at FC Dallas
Sport/League: MLS

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Galaxy +0.5 (-125)
MLS
A quick look at the standings shows LA Galaxy #3 in the West with an 8-1-5 record and +1 goal differential while Dallas is dead last at #13 with a 2-5-7 record and a -9 goal differential. Then you look at the line and Dallas is favored here by a half of a goal. Seems odd. But I’ll preface this and say Dallas has a huge home-away split this season. They have lost all seven games on the road and have scored just two goals in those seven games but at home, they are unbeaten in seven games.
However, they only have two wins to go along with five draws so even though they aren’t losing, they really aren’t winning either.
Both teams are in the negative xG differential range on the year, Dallas averaging 1.36 xG but allowing 1.56 xGA while the Galaxy average 1.54 xG and allow 1.69 xGA. At the end of the day the numbers show these teams are very evenly matched and this is just a simply play to grab the +0.5 goals with LA Galaxy.
TAKE LA GALAXY +0.5
Line Parameter: 2% to +0.25, pay up to -140 to get +0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Anthony

Event: (24437) Nassourdine Imavov at (24438) Ian Heinisch
Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Ian Heinisch -150
This line seems to small, Ian Heinisch should be a much larger favorite for many reasons. The biggest being competition level each has faced. Imavov only has 2 UFC fights which he's 1-1 and looked unimpressive in both spots, only defeating Jordan Williams who was 1-1 on Dana White's Contender Series. While Heinisch has faced higher level and tougher stylistic match up's. One of Ian's best weapons is his ability to wrestle, but most of his recent opponents also possessed high level wrestling as well. On Saturday night that won't be the case, the inexperienced Imavov has better striking but very hitable with lower level grappling. In the smaller Apex cage Ian should find opportunities to smother Imavov's stand up game dragging him to deeper water. Plus, and possibly more importantly, is the huge gas tank Ian brings to the cage. His cardio is off the charts good while time and time again Imavov's energy drops off a cliff during round 2. This is a spot where sprinkling in a method of victory play could be worth it. Round 1 could be close, but heading into the later rounds Ian will slow Imavov down, once that happens a knockout is very possible. Heinisch to win via KO/TKO (+500) seems like fantastic value for a late stoppage.
Mixing those things together, Ian has all the advantages needed to get this victory. At -150 price, I love the value on betting the UFC vet with more paths to victory and an overall better skill set.

Play: Ian Heinisch (-150)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (909) Pittsburgh Pirates at (910) San Francisco Giants
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: 1H San Francisco Giants -0.5 (-165) W Crowe (RHP), K Gausman (RHP) Must Start

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (911) Colorado Rockies at (912) Los Angeles Dodgers
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Run Scored 1st Inning - Yes
Get Brandon's Olympics baseball medal play for $9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (24401) TJ Dillashaw at (24402) Cory Sandhagen

Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: July 24, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Fight Starts round 3
(Free Plays 58-30 66%* *38-19 L/57 67%) The Main event! A long 2.5 year layoff for Dillashaw prior to this fight. He was at the top of the game before his suspension. Sandhagen has had some impressive visual wins recently, but this fight looks to be different. I think its going to take some time for this fight to really get going. Sandhagen has to avoid a takedown, as he has a real problem if he goes down to the floor. I see some distance fighting that will take time for resolution. I'm playing the fight will start Round 3 -125. Over 2.5 rounds +100 is an alternative.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 1	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Maiden Optional Claiming $50,0 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $43,000 • Post: 12:20
(RAIL AT 36 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FLORIDA-BRED, OR MAIDENS CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ONTHE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DREAMING OF AUDREY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FLASHY TOO: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. CHICA BOOM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KATIESDREAMGIRL: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
5	DREAMING OF AUDREY	8/1	5/1
9	FLASHY TOO	7/2	6/1
8	CHICA BOOM	6/1	7/1
7	KATIESDREAMGIRL	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LOVE MY JOB	1	9/2	Front-runner	0	0	81.5	76.8	70.3
8	CHICA BOOM	8	6/1	Front-runner	79	72	74.0	73.5	65.0
7	KATIESDREAMGIRL	7	5/1	Stalker	78	79	62.3	70.8	61.8
9	FLASHY TOO	9	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	85	74	84.1	70.6	65.1
5	DREAMING OF AUDREY	5	8/1	Trailer	80	75	65.6	74.0	67.0
3	BEASTIE GIRL	3	12/1	Trailer	79	69	56.9	64.5	53.0
4	MARIA'S REVENGE	4	15/1	Trailer	0	0	49.5	64.9	55.4
6	PROMISE ME	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	92.0	37.0	24.5

Unknown Running Style: CRYSTAL LAGOON (3/1) [Jockey: Torres Cristian A - Trainer: Casse Mark E].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grand Prairie

Grand Prairie - Race 2	Pick 3 ( Races 2-3-4 ) / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Claiming $3,200 • 4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $3,800 • Post: 1:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PHIL POWER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PHIL POWER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start a fter a layoff. PACIORETTY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. LOOKIECOOKIE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. BOLD BULLDOG: Today is a sprint and this is the horse' s third or fourth start after a layoff. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
6	PHIL POWER	3/1	7/2
4	PACIORETTY	8/5	6/1
1	LOOKIECOOKIE	8/1	8/1
5	BOLD BULLDOG	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	PHIL POWER	6	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	72	69	62.0	58.0	53.0
1	LOOKIECOOKIE	1	8/1	Stalker	80	67	58.8	66.4	59.4
4	PACIORETTY	4	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	77	70	50.0	64.6	62.1
5	BOLD BULLDOG	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	72	0.0	63.8	55.3
3	WITT STAMP	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	65	0.0	55.0	47.0
2	WIREBOUND	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	69	68	0.0	49.3	39.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 STUMP 3/1
# 2 ITALIAN CHARM 1/1
# 4 JUSTENUFFTUFF 4/1

STUMP looks to be a competitive contender. Will most likely go to the lead and might never look back. Should hit the board without a doubt. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 72 speed rating put up in his last outing. ITALIAN CHARM - Has performed admirably recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 75 avg Equibase speed fig. Horses trained by Cox in dirt sprint races are normally solid. JUSTENUFFTUFF - Looks to have a competitive class edge based on the latest company kept. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 75 - of his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Great Falls - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Claiming - 5.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,400 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#2 CARSON'S STORM (ML=7/1)
#1 THREE POINT CASH (ML=2/1)
#4 MY FOOLISH BEAU (ML=5/1)


CARSON'S STORM - This gelding has impressed last two times out posting strong speed ratings. With a repeat performance, he'll probably win this race. The April 28th event at Fonner Park was at a class level of (88). Dropping to a lower class level a significant amount, so he should be in a good spot. Fits well considering the fact that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed fig good enough to win today. The most recent speed rating of 67 is the best last race speed fig in the bunch. THREE POINT CASH - A wise man taught me to bet on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this thoroughbred. With a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from his May 30th race at Energy Downs 307 Racing. Based on that information, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. Gets help from Birdrattler with the addition of Lasix. This horse probably isn't going to sit chilly. He should bust out of the gate and be one of the first to hit that tight turn. Watch for him down the lane. MY FOOLISH BEAU - Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the ability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 JONATHAN'S STAR (ML=3/1), #5 AFLEETASHA (ML=4/1), #3 GOLD WILL DO (ML=8/1),

JONATHAN'S STAR - Didn't make up any ground at any point on Jun 20th. Hard to wager on this time out at the expected odds. GOLD WILL DO - Difficult to support any vulnerable equine in a short distance event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CARSON'S STORM - This gelding doesn't have to improve too much to win this race. Surely worth a prime wager.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 CARSON'S STORM is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2] Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $15800 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 GENESIS 1 15/1
# 8 VALIANT CHARM 20/1
# 4 JESS HEZ ON FIRE 5/1

My pick in this event is GENESIS 1 especially at a such a nice price. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 82 - of his last contest. Should wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. VALIANT CHARM - He has quite good class ratings, averaging 77, and has to be considered in this event. Looks solid for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in short races lately. JESS HEZ ON FIRE - Jones has him trained solidly to break quickly out of the starting gate. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #5 - Post: 3:51pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $39,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#8 ROWDY OH (ML=6/1)
#3 SAL MAGLIE (ML=12/1)


ROWDY OH - Ran last time around the track against a much better field at Golden Gate Fields. The move down in class should suit him well. The rest of the group may trail this thoroughbred all the way around the track. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by today's shorter distance. Stortz seems to have this gelding primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is wonderful. Lets try to beat the favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. SAL MAGLIE - This gelding should find these state breds easier than what he faced in his last event on July 5th. A good sign that Becerra tries blinks today and this horse in his drill started from the gate. Should improve.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CROWN THE LAKERS (ML=5/2), #7 UNION BOY (ML=3/1), #6 SON OF SMALLS (ML=7/2),

CROWN THE LAKERS - Morning line of 5/2 make this thoroughbred a pass by my criteria. UNION BOY - Doesn't look to be worth 3/1 this time. Pass on him this time. SON OF SMALLS - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint affairs recently. Doubtful to see him doing it today either. Mediocre speed fig last out at Golden Gate Fields at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ROWDY OH - I always consider the horse with the highest average class rating in turf races. Should be a part of it today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 ROWDY OH is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/24/21, SAR, Race 8, 5.03 ET
07/24/21,SAR,8,1M [Inner Turf] 1:32:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $100,000. INNER TURF (UP TO $17,400 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred). (Rail at 9 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Midnight Choir(b+)	10/1	Franco M	Thomas Jonathan	T	292	35.96	1.49/$1
098.3212	3	Rastafara (IRE)	5/2	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	JL	292	35.96	1.49/$1
098.2652	1	Split Then Double (GB)	3/1	Ortiz J L	Brown Chad C.	FE	292	35.96	1.49/$1
097.9649	6	Ingress	12/1	Alvarado J	Mott William I.		324	35.80	1.43/$1
097.3265	9	(F)Ego Trip (IRE)	6/1	Gaffalione T	Walsh Brendan P.		292	35.96	1.49/$1
097.2491	4	Good Talk	20/1	Saez L	Antonucci Jena M.	SW	292	35.96	1.49/$1
096.5352	8	Naked On the Beach	12/1	Santana. Jr. R	Casse Norm W.		292	35.96	1.49/$1
096.4888	2	Baby Blythe	4/1	Rosario J	McGaughey III Claude R	C	292	35.96	1.49/$1
096.2087	7	Vintage Style	8/1	Lezcano J	Weaver George		292	35.96	1.49/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 36.36, ROI 2.33/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.6788
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Categories] Last Race Purse Not Same As Today
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Baby Blythe	4/1	Rosario J	McGaughey III Claude R	C	292	35.96	1.49/$1
099.3298	1	Split Then Double (GB)	3/1	Ortiz J L	Brown Chad C.	E	292	35.96	1.49/$1
098.9223	3	Rastafara (IRE)	5/2	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	JFL	292	35.96	1.49/$1
098.6199	9	(F)Ego Trip (IRE)	6/1	Gaffalione T	Walsh Brendan P.		292	35.96	1.49/$1
098.3911	5	Midnight Choir(b+)	10/1	Franco M	Thomas Jonathan	T	292	35.96	1.49/$1
097.3901	4	Good Talk	20/1	Saez L	Antonucci Jena M.	SW	292	35.96	1.49/$1
096.6882	7	Vintage Style	8/1	Lezcano J	Weaver George		292	35.96	1.49/$1
096.2381	6	Ingress	12/1	Alvarado J	Mott William I.		324	35.80	1.43/$1
094.8456	8	Naked On the Beach	12/1	Santana. Jr. R	Casse Norm W.		292	35.96	1.49/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 38.30, ROI 1.08/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.6702
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Categories] Last Race Purse Not Same As Today