Wednesday 7/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#6 ARMED MISSILE (ML=5/1)
#5 NIN TO WIN (ML=3/1)


ARMED MISSILE - This horse could be tough in today's contest, especially since Cotto rode in the last race and now should be more familiar with this one. This mare has the top turf rating in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here thoroughbred has a good chance. This mare's last speed fig is lofty enough to triumph here, I'll bet on her back again this time. NIN TO WIN - I sense a speed battle developing here. If that happens, this filly will be in stalking position to run down the leaders. When Stokes and Landry team up on animals the ROI has been great at +36. Landry is good with horses moving to the turf for the first time. You have to figure this filly is going to be in contention in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STAR FASHION (ML=9/5), #2 PRISSY JADEN (ML=7/2), #1 SHOP AROUND (ML=8/1),

STAR FASHION - Didn't end up on the board on May 19th at Evangeline Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. Finished eighth in her most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. PRISSY JADEN - This filly registered a speed rating in her last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's race. SHOP AROUND - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 ARMED MISSILE to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/28/21, SAR, Race 9, 5.39 ET
07/28/21,SAR,9,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 HANDICAP. Honorable Miss Handicap. Grade 2. Purse $200,000. A HANDICAP FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. This is a Non-Lasix race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time. By subscription of $200 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $2,000 along with the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the publication of weights. The purse to be divided 55% to the winner,20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, July 17, 2021 with 16 Nominations.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Honey I'm Good	6/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		71	47.89	1.44/$1
099.1293	3	Sadie Lady	12/1	Ortiz J L	Atras Rob	L	203	37.93	1.10/$1
098.9119	4	Lake Avenue	9/2	Alvarado J	Mott William I.	T	203	37.93	1.10/$1
098.6948	1	Ain't No Elmers	6/1	Beschizza A	Calhoun W. Bret		81	28.40	1.28/$1
096.6803	2	Reagan's Edge	6/1	Lezcano J	DeVaux Cherie		71	47.89	1.44/$1
096.2420	6	Don't Call Me Mary	12/1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.		203	37.93	1.10/$1
095.7542	9	Bell's the One	7/5	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.	SEWC	203	37.93	1.10/$1
095.4722	8	Miss Mosaic	15/1	Franco M	Colebrook Ben		71	47.89	1.44/$1
093.9485	5	Truth Hurts	30/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Summers Chad	J	71	47.89	1.44/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.33, ROI 0.92/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.8707
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey -with-
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Does Not Carry High Weight

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Winners for Wednesday, July 28th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
DELAWARE PARK
RACE #7
TIME: 4:15 PM EST
PICK: BET #4 Charge Account 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901MILWAUKEE -902 PITTSBURGH
MILWAUKEE is 39-25 SU (14.9 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in the current season.

903WASHINGTON -904 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 13-25 SU (-16.8 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

905ATLANTA -906 NY METS
NY METS are 23-11 SU (12.9 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

907CINCINNATI -908 CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-18 SU (16.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

909LA DODGERS -910 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-12 SU (25.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current season.

911DETROIT -912 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 26-58 SU (-40 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

913HOUSTON -914 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 20-5 SU (14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.

917NY YANKEES -918 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 11-3 SU (7.7 Units) in home games when the money line is -100 to -150 in the current season.

919CHI WHITE SOX -920 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 34-20 SU (19.1 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

921ST LOUIS -922 CLEVELAND
ST LOUIS are 32-40 SU (-26.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, July 28

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Wednesday, July 28

Trend Report

St. Louis @ Cleveland
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games

Houston @ Seattle
Houston
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Oakland @ San Diego
Oakland
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 12 games at home

Miami @ Baltimore
Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Baltimore's last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Baltimore's last 16 games

Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Philadelphia's last 20 games

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 22 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games

Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

Cincinnati @ Chi Cubs
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

Arizona @ Texas
Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing Arizona

Chi White Sox @ Kansas City
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Colorado @ LA Angels
Colorado
Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
LA Angels is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Colorado

LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Wednesday July 28
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Yankees are 12-0 SU since Jul 30, 2020 in the second game of a series after they won and never trailed the opening game.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Cubs are 0-9 SU since Jun 26, 2021 as a dog after they had more strikeouts than hits last game.

OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Yankees are 0-11 OU (-2.68 ppg) since Sep 24, 2019 as a road dog after their bullpen allowed multiple runs last game.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at L.A. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)

-- The Angels are 7-0 OU (3.07 ppg) since Sep 25, 2020 when Andrew Heaney starts after he threw over 100 pitches in his last start.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, July 28

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Jul 28 '21, 7:10 PM in 56m
MLB | Braves vs Mets
Play on: Mets -125 at pinnacle

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on New York Mets -125
The Key: The Braves are missing some key players in their lineup that will make it hard for them to win games the rest of the season. Look for Tylor Megill to shut them down tonight. Megill is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 6 starts this year. He has gone 1-0 with a 0.57 ERA in his last 3 outings while yielding only one earned run in 15 2/3 innings. Max Fried is 7-6 with a 4.57 ERA in 16 starts for the Braves. He has been awful on the road at 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 7 road starts. The Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 games off a win. The Mets are 25-12 in their last 37 home games. Take New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Jul 28 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -106 at pinnacle

Lyles and Bumgarner are familiar foes. They first opposed each other almost exactly a decade ago, in August of 2011. Lyles' team won that one, a 7-5 win for Houston over SF. (Lyles was charged with 0 earned runs while Bumgarner gave up seven in total, six earned.) Much has changed in the world since that day and both starters are now veterans, pitching for struggling clubs. Still, I like Lyle's team to have the edge, once again. Texas finally snapped its skid yesterday. That will take some pressure off the Rangers today and should provide some positive momentum. Admittedly, Bumgarner has pitched pretty well his past couple of starts. Lyles has given up two or fewer earned runs in three of his past five starts too though. He went seven innings last time and has gone six or more in four of his past five. Yesterday, I noted that Ranger relievers had been much better at home than Arizona relievers have been on the road. (Here's what I said: "With neither starter going the distance, note that Arizona relievers have a combined 5.73 ERA on the road (30.8% save percentage) while Texas relievers have a combined 3.59 ERA at home.)" The Dbax are now just 12-41 on the road. Consider Texas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jul 28 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Reds vs Cubs
Play on: Reds -107 at pinnacle

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Cincinnati Reds -107
The Cincinnati Reds have a big advantage on the mound today over the Chicago Cubs and should be bigger favorites because of it. The Cubs could still be without one of their best hitters in Javier Baez, plus there is a lot of trade distractions surrounding them right now.
Tyler Mahle has been at his best on the road this season, going 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 11 starts away from home. Mahle has held the Cubs to just one earned run in 10 innings in his last two starts against them this season to improve to 4-2 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 11 career starts against Chicago.
Zach Davies is 6-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 21 starts this season for the Cubs, including 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in his last three. Davies is 3-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 15 career starts against Cincinnati as well.
The Reds are 16-6 in their last 22 games as favorites. Cincinnati is 18-8 in its last 26 vs. NL Central opponents. The Cubs are 8-19 in their last 27 games overall. Chicago is 1-9 in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the Reds Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Jul 28 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Play on: Diamondbacks -103 at pinnacle

One of these two teams has lost 11 of their last 12 games all by multiple runs - and that team isn't the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 5-3 in its last eight games. Texas is 1-11. The pitching matchup is lefty Madison Bumgarner versus Jordan Lyles. Both pitchers have ERA's above 5.00, but Bumgarner is in better form. Bumgarner has yielded just two earned runs and one walk during his past two starts against the Cubs and Pirates spanning 11 innings. Texas, against lefties, ranks 29th in slugging percentage and 28th in on-base percentage. Lyles has surrendered 24 homers, the second-highest mark in the majors.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Jul 28 '21, 8:45 PM in 2h
PGA | J Janewattananond vs Rasmus Hojgaard
Play on: J Janewattananond +116 at BetVegas

FREE PLAY on J Janewattananond +116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jul 28 '21, 9:10 PM in 2h
PGA | Cameron Smith vs Shane Lowry
Play on: Cameron Smith -105 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Cameron Smith -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Jul 28 '21, 9:38 PM in 3h
MLB | Rockies vs Angels
Play on: Angels -1½ -110 at pinnacle

1* MLB - Rockies/Angels FREE PICK on Angels -1.5, -110
Wednesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Los Angeles Angels on the -1.5 run line at home against the Colorado Rockies. We should see plenty of runs from the Angels in this one. Colorado's Chi Chi Gonzalez has 6.04 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 15 starts. He's been much worse than that of late, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.714 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's given up 11 homers in 9 road starts this year. Andrew Heaney hasn't been great in 2012, but he was really good in his last start, giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits with 7 K's in 7 innings at Minnesota. He's also facing a Rockies team that went in Tuesday's action averaging a mere 2.9 runs/game on the road this year. Bet the Angels -1.5!