Service Plays Saturday 7/31/21

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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NHL
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Kyle Anthony

3% Trevin Jones +130


Analysis:
In a preliminary bout Trevin Jones faces Ronnie Lawrence…

Liking the plus money spot here on Trevin Jones.

Despite his 13-6 professional MMA record, Jones has a solid skill set with some very close decision losses. Over his last 10 MMA fights Trevin is 7-3 with all 3 losses coming by way of split decision. His light footed movement mixed with rangy combinations and in spots displayed KO power provides a well rounded arsenal. While Ronnie Lawrence has a pro record of 7-1 but shown holes and vulnerability in his game. What's most concerning about Lawrence is how his head stays on center line there to be hit. Most recently against Vince Cachero who's 1-4 in last 5 MMA bouts, Cachero kept pace with Lawrence and was able to scramble back to his feet when Ronnie level changed controlling position. His lack of striking allowed Ronnie to continue pushing for takedowns bullying Cachero, but for the level he is Lawrence should've kept him down multiple times. On Saturday night I believe the movement and toe to toe exchanges favor Trevin widely. Even if Ronnie pushes for takedown's he'll have to use some striking getting past what Jones fires back. The forward push should allow Trevin to land heavy shots and utilize his superior hand speed. Add in his strong leg kicking game mixed in and I'm loving this dog money on Jones.

It appears he's putting it all together and at this price I'm comfortable wagering 3%.



Play: Trevin Jones (+130)

3% Danny Chavez +105



Analysis:
In a preliminary bout Danny Chavez faces Kai Kamaka…

The biggest reasons I like Danny Chavez is the high pace at which he fights, cardio levels and versatile offensive game. Spots where he's shown vulnerability is against heavy grapplers mixing in takedowns. Kai Kamaka will seek to keep fight standing and Danny can be the one throwing off his opponent with level changes. The high pace Danny pushes should also break Kai in rounds 2 and 3 if needed. Early round 1 Kai displays nice movement and slick combinations, but tails off later in fights. Chavez has the cardio to back up his pace as well as fantastic hand speed working his angles. Most recently Kai's fight against TJ Brown proved his cardio is limited. End of round 1 and into round 2 Kai's striking volume slowed down allowing TJ to continue implementing his game plan winning by decision win. That vulnerability will present tons of opportunities for Chavez to takeover the fight. Add in his good movement and footwork opening up his strong leg kicking game will slow Kai down further. Mixing that all together I don't see where Kai has an advantage in this one. Danny's toughness and pressure should breakdown Kamaka as long as the fight lasts.

Getting slight plus money on a guy with more paths to victory, better cardio and more versatile striking…I'm on Chavez getting the job done Saturday night.



Play: Danny Chavez (+105)

3% Nicco Montano -230


Analysis:
In the featured preliminary fight Nicco Montano faces Yanan Wu…

This line is chalky… but not chalky enough.

Even at -230 there's value as I'd cap Nicco roughly around -350 to -400. Not going to give a big breakdown on a wide line, simply put Nicco should absolutely dominate the grappling. There's nothing I've seen from Wu skill wise to have much of a worry. This bout is very similar to our client play winner 2 weeks ago on Miesha Tate (-120). Although not as much value but mirroring the stylistic comeback fight after a layoff. UFC is giving Nicco a highly favorable match up upon her return and a clear path to victory. Once in the clinch, Nicco will bulldoze Wu down gaining control each round winning on the scorecards. There is upside to Nicco finding a finish at some point on the ground, as Yanan doesn't normally offer up much resistance. Also I believe this line isn't wider due to the fact the MMA community hates Nicco. Yup, they sure do. After pulling out of about 5 fights back to back to back her fanbase and backers have pulled for her demise. In a division that could use more stars and talent, the defending T.U.F. champion should comeback to the octagon in dominate winning fashion. This is a spot I'm willing to pay up on a fighter that should clearly be a one-sided win.



Play: Nicco Montano (-230)


3% Ryan Benoit -130


Analysis:
In a main card bout Ryan Benoit faces Zarrukh Adashev…

When Zarrukh came into the UFC he was touted as this high level kick boxer, …but boy his ability hasn't translated well in the UFC. In his first 2 UFC appearances he faced opponents whom prefer standing, and Zarrukh was KO'ed in round one by journeymen fighter Tyson Nam and losing to Su Mudaerji via unanimous decision. Losing basically 2 kick boxing matches could be a glimpse that he's just not UFC caliber. Benoit doesn't have a glamorous MMA record of 10-7, but that MMA experience weighs heavy in a bout against the limited MMA experience Zarrukh has with a record of 3-3 (0-2 in UFC) since going pro. On Saturday night against Ryan Benoit it could cause Adashev major problems against his well rounded skill set. Ryan is better then Zarrukh everywhere, …but the key and clear path to victory is his grappling. At times Benoit falls in love with his striking and doesn't mix in level changes but this is a favorable stylistic match up. As long as he sticks to his game plan and isn't drawn into a full on kick boxing match he should control the cage all fight long. Even if it's a full striking bout Bonoit can still handle himself by giving Zarrukh different looks and attacks. Plus add in Ryan's 3.5 inch reach advantage and I'm very comfortable with this wager. Although Ryan has been stuck in the middle of the pack in the division, he is taking a step down in competition level and we're grabbing him at a good price.



Play: Ryan Benoit (-130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elite Sports Picks

Milwaukee (Woodruff) -150 over Atlanta (Muller)

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Insider Sports Report

5* Philadelphia (Nola) -150 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
Range: -135 to -175

3* Boston (Eovaldi) -115 over Tampa Bay (Yarbrough)
Range: +105 to -135

3* N.Y. Mets (Hill) -125 over Cincinnati (Miley)
Range: -105 to -145

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National Sports Service

4* Detroit (Manning) +105 over Baltimore (Means)

3* Cincinnati (Miley)/N.Y. Mets (Hill) OVER 8

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Top Rank Sports

Marquee Picks® For 07/31/21

4★ Milwaukee (Woodruff) -150 over Atlanta (Muller)

3★ San Francisco (Wood) +110 over Houston (Greinke)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

NL games
Cubs (50-55) @ Washington (48-55)
— Hendricks is 2-0, 3.91 in his last four starts.
— Cubs are 11-3 in his last 14 starts.
— under 7-4 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 14-6-1
— He is 3-2, 3.06 in eight starts vs Washington.

— Cubs are 8-22 in last 30 games.
— Chicago is 1-5 in its last six road games.
— Under is 8-3 in last 11 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-105
— record in first 5 innings: 44-48-13

— Nationals haven’t named a pitcher.

— Washington is 6-12 in its last 18 games.
— Nationals are 4-7 in last 11 home games.
— under 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 34-102
— record in first 5 innings: 43-39-20

Philadelphia (51-52) @ Pittsburgh (39-64)
— Nola is 2-2, 5.84 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 10-10 in his starts.
— over 6-3 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 7-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8-1
— He is 2-2, 3.24 in four starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Phillies are 5-8 in their last 13 games.
— Phillies are 31-21 at home, 20-31 on road.
— over 16-6 last 22 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-103
— record in first 5 innings: 39-41-23

— Brubaker is 0-6, 5.93 in his last eight starts.
— Pittsburgh is 5-13 in his starts.
— under 7-3-1 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 5-11-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Philly.

— Pirates lost eight of last 11 games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-6 in last 11 home games.
— over 16-7-1 last 24 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-102
— record in first 5 innings: 33-57-12

Cincinnati (55-49) @ Mets (54-48)
— Miley is 2-0, 2.49 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 12-6 in his starts.
— over 11-7
— allowed run in first inning: 7-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-2
— He is 1-1, 3.68 in five starts vs New York.

— Cincinnati is 7-7 in its last 14 games.
— Reds are 10-3 in last 13 road games.
— under 6-4-2 last 12 road games
— scored run in first inning: 32-104
— record in first 5 innings: 46-43-16

— Hill is 0-2, 5.32 in his last five starts.
— Mets won his first start for them.
— over 5-3 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 4-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-5-5
— He is 5-3, 3.18 in 11 starts vs Cincinnati.

— Mets are 19-23 in their last 42 games.
— Mets are 11-10 in their last 21 home games.
— under 7-3-1 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-102
— record in first 5 innings: 45-45-12

Milwaukee (62-42) @ Atlanta (51-53)
— Woodruff is 0-2, 3.70 in his last four starts.
— Milwaukee is 12-7 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-5
— He is 1-0, 1.84 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Brewers are 9-3 in last 12 games.
— Milwaukee won last eight road games.
— over 7-1-1 last nine road games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-104
— record in first 5 innings: 51-34-19

— Muller is 2-3, 1.90 in five starts (23.2 IP).
— Braves are 2-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee.

— Braves are 7-9 in their last 16 games
— Atlanta is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
— under 5-4 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 38-104
— record in first 5 innings: 53-38-13

Dodgers (62-42) @ Arizona (32-71)
— LA hasn’t named a starter.

— Dodgers are 4-7 in last 11 games.
— Dodgers are 4-6 in last ten road games.
— under 7-4-1 last 12 home games
— scored run in first inning: 33-104
— record in first 5 innings: 54-33-17

— Kelly is 5-0, 2.62 in his last seven starts.
— Arizona is 10-11 in his starts.
— over 7-4 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-2
— He is 0-1, 2.92 in two starts vs Los Angeles this year.

— Arizona won six of last nine games.
— Arizona is 4-33 in its last 37 road games.
— over 9-7 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 15-103
— record in first 5 innings: 38-58-7

Colorado (45-60) @ San Diego (61-46)
— Marquez is 4-2, 2.03 in his last seven starts.
— Rockies are 12-9 in his starts.
— under 9-2-1 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 4-21
— record in first 5 innings: 12-8-1
— He is 6-3, 4.61 in 11 starts vs San Diego.

— Colorado is 20-18 in its last 38 games.
— Rockies are 33-20 at home, 12-39 on road.
— under 18-8 last 26 games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-105
— record in first 5 innings: 41-48-16

— Darvish is 0-3, 7.58 in his last four starts.
— Padres are 14-6 in his starts.
— over 10-3 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-8
— He is 1-0, 2.81 in three starts vs Colorado this year.

— Padres are 7-6 in their last 13 games.
— San Diego is 7-7 in last 14 home games.
— under 6-5 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 32-106
— record in first 5 innings: 42-46-17

AL games
Kansas City (45-57) @ Toronto (52-48)
— Minor is 2-0, 3.00 in his las two starts.
— Kansas City is 10-11 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-21
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-3
— He is 4-1, 2.59 in 8 games (6 starts) vs Toronto.

— Royals won eight of last ten games.
— Royals are 2-10 in last 12 road games.
— under 8-1-2 last 11 games.
— scores run in first inning: 21-102
— record in first 5 innings: 38-51-13

— Manoah is 2-1, 3.57 in eight starts.
— His last start was July 9.
— Toronto is 5-3 in his starts.
— over 4-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 2-6
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.

— Toronto is 4-6 in its last last games.
— This is Blue Jays’ first weekend back in Toronto.
— Under is 5-2-1 in last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-100
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5 last 14

Baltimore (36-66) @ Detroit (50-56)
— Means is 0-3, 7.27 in his last four starts.
— Orioles are 6-8 in his starts.
— under 8-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-4
— He is 0-1, 4.63 in two starts vs Detroit.

— Orioles are 8-4 in last 12 games.
— Baltimore is 19-35 on road, 17-31 at home.
— over is 43-22-1 in their last 65 games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-103
— record in first 5 innings: 34-53-16

— Manning is 1-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.
— Tigers are 3-4 in his starts.
— over 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

— Detroit lost five of last eight games.
— Detroit is 10-1 in last 11 home games.
— over 28-17-1 last 46 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-106
— record in first 5 innings: 9-1-1 last 11 at home.

Boston (63-42) @ Tampa Bay (62-42)
— Eovaldi is 1-1, 2.84 in his last four starts.
— Boston is 11-9 in his starts.
— under 7-3-1 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 12-5-3
— He is 3-5, 4.91 in 11 games (9 starts) vs Tampa Bay.

— Boston is 7-4 in its last 11 games.
— Red Sox are 8-10 in last 18 road games.
— under 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 35-105
— record in first 5 innings: 48-42-15

— Yarbrough is 2-1, 3.77 in his last five starts.
— Rays are 8-7 in his starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-4
— He gave up 14 runs in 7 IP in two games vs Boston this year.

— Tampa Bay won 15 of its last 21 games.
— Rays are 13-5 in last 18 home tilts.
— under is 7-4 last 11 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-104
— record in first 5 innings: 41-38-25

Cleveland (50-50) @ White Sox (61-43)
— McKenzie is 0-1, 3.71 in his last three starts.
— Indians are 5-8 in his starts.
— over 7-4 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6-3
— He is 0-1, 10.32 in three starts vs Chicago this year.

— Cleveland is 10-20 in last 30 games.
— Indians is 3-9 in last 12 road games.
— over 8-4 last 12 road games
— scores run in first inning: 32-100
— record in first 5 innings: 37-48-15

— Keuchel is 1-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 12-7 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 12-5-2
— He is 0-1, 5.73 in two starts vs Cleveland this year.

— Chicago lost six of last nine games.
— White Sox are 9-3 in last 12 home games.
— over 9-2 last 11 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-104
— record in first 5 innings: 57-31-16

Seattle (56-48) @ Texas (36-67)
— Anderson makes his Seattle debut here.
— He was 2-0, 2.50 in his last three Pittsburgh starts.
— Pirates were 9-9 in his starts.
— over 9-3 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 7-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-3
— He gave up 2 runs in 9 IP in 2 games (1 start) vs Texas.

— Seattle is 25-12 in its last 37 games.
— Seattle is 6-2 in last eight road games.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 32-104
— record in first 5 innings: 47-49-8

— bullpen game

— Texas lost 14 of its last 15 games.
— Texas is 3-6 in last nine home games.
— under 5-4 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-103
— record in first 5 innings: 33-57-13

Oakland (59-46) @ Angels (51-52)
— Irvin is 2-2, 3.19 in his last five starts.
— A’s are 7-2 in his last nine starts.
— under 8-3 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-3
— He is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Anaheim this year.

— A’s are 3-0 since Marte trade was announced.
— Oakland is 8-7 in last 15 road games.
— Under is 20-10 in their last 30 games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-105
— record in first 5 innings: 46-39-20

— Detmers is making his MLB debut.
— He was 3-4, 3.15 in 13 minor league starts this year; 12 of them were in AA.
— He is 22 years old, pitched at Louisville, was drafted last year.

— Angels haven’t scored in last three games vs Oakland.
— Halos are 13-11 in last 24 games.
— Angels are 8-6 in last 14 home games.
— under 8-3 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 34-103
— record in first 5 innings: 45-45-13

Interleague games
Bronx (54-48) @ Miami (44-59)
— German is 0-2, 7.18 in his last six starts.
— New York is 9-8 in his starts.
— under 9-8
— allowed run in first inning: 9-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.

— New York is 13-6 in last 19 games.
— New York is 11-9 in last 20 road games.
— under 10-2 last 12 road games
— scored run in first inning: 24-102
— record in first 5 innings: 42-39-21

— Miami hasn’t named a starter.

— Marlins are 15-23 in their last 38 games.
— Miami is 3-6 in last nine home games.
— over 12-7-2 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-103
— record in first 5 innings: 37-46-20

Minnesota (43-61) @ St Louis (52-51)
— Ober is 1-1, 6.14 in his last five starts.
— Twins are 5-5 in his starts.
— over 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-1
— He hasn’t pitched against St Louis.

— Minnesota is 4-11 in its last 15 games.
— Twins are 3-11 in last 14 road games.
— over 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 36-104
— record in first 5 innings: 31-51-22

— Woodford is 1-1, 3.37 in two starts.
— Cardinals are 1-1 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Minnesota.

— Cardinals are 16-10 in last 26 games.
— St Louis is 6-1 in its last seven home games.
— Under is 23-14-2 in their last 39 games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-103
— record in first 5 innings: 41-43-19

Houston (64-40) @ San Francisco (64-39)
— Greinke is 2-1, 2.35 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 15-6 in his starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-5
— He is 14-3, 2.18 in 21 starts vs San Francisco.

— Astros are 8-2 in last ten games.
— Astros are 9-2 in last 11 road games.
— over 14-8
— scored run in first inning: 37-104
— record in first 5 innings: 58-32-14

— Wood is 3-0, 2.82 in his last four starts.
— Giants are 11-6 in his starts.
— over 6-3 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-3
— He is 1-1, 0.64 in 3 games (2 starts) vs Houston.

— Giants are 7-7 since All-Star break.
— Giants are 17-9 in last 26 home games.
— Over is 12-7 in last 19 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-103
— record in first 5 innings: 55-35-13

Saturday’s umpires
Chi-Wash- Under is 3-0 in last three Morales games.
Phil-Pitt- Underdogs are 9-2 in last 11 Whitson games.
Cin-NY- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Segal games.
Mil-Atl- Favorites are 4-1 in last five Bucknor games.
LA-Az- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Drake games.
Colo-SD- Over is 8-4 in last dozen Gonzalez games.

KC-Tor- Under is 7-1 in last eight Fletcher games.
A’s-LAA- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine TGibson games.
Balt-Det- Under is 8-2 in last ten DeJesus games.
Bos-TB- Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 Barksdale games.
Sea-Tex- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Johnson games.
Clev-Chi- Over is 5-2 in last seven Muchinski games.

Hst-SF- Home side won 7 of last 8 O’Nora games.
NY-Mia- Under is 5-2 in last seven Vanover games.
Minn-StL- Over is 10-5 in Torres games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GreenPunter us

Texas Rangers – Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners

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totalmatchvip
Germany III Liga
Dortmund II – Mannheim
Over 3

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SYSTEM 4 TEAM PARLAY
LA Angels +1.5
Miami Marlins ML
Texas Rangers ML
Philadelphia Phillies ML

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Totals 4 You MLB Baseball Report for Saturday, July 31st

2021 American League on FS1 Super Total of the Year
!!!!!

Oakland/LA Angels under 9 1/2

MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Milwaukee/Atlanta under 8 1/2
Houston/San Francisco over 8
Boston/Tampa Bay over 8 1/2
Cleveland/Chicago White Sox over 9

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Dave Essler MLB IL Game of the Month

Giants ML

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Stephen Nover DISCOUNTED DAY GAME DOMINATOR

Athletics/Angels UNDER

Stephen Nover 2-FOR-1 MLB SATURDAY SWEEP

Orioles ML
Brewers ML

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MLB(BobBalfe)
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #975
Astros -105 over Giants
Greinke/Wood
Both pitchers are having good seasons and both teams are 1st in their divisions. The Giants are a great story as they were not expected to be this good. I do think we will see them fade a little bit down the stretch. The weather will be very humid with winds blowing out. This park doesn’t give hitters much of an advantage, but the Astros have been crushing left handed pitching this year and I believe that will be the difference in this game as they will get to Alex Wood early with big hits. Take the Astros.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

MLB
3* #965/966 Athletics/Angels under 10.5