Saturday 8/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:22 AM

Northfield Park-Milstein Invitational Pace Analysis

August 14, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Northfield Park has 16 races scheduled with over $900,000 in purses up for grabs. This is the biggest night of racing at Northfield featuring the Carl Milstein Memorial Pace. Nine 3-year-old pacers will be going postward in Race 10 battling for a share of a $300,000 purse. Northfield's signature event features a competitive field, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10-Carl Milstein Memorial Pace-$300,000 Purse

1-Bettor Sun (8-1)-Ontario invader for Team McNair has raced on smaller ovals before but not at NFLD. The connections must be are confident the track won't be an issue. Didn't have a very smooth journey in the last race versus tough colts. In that start the outside pair left and McNair pulled 2nd over before a 53.4 half. Although finishing 3rd, still paced the last quarter in 26.4. Looking for an alert start and could get the pocket, should have a big shot if that happens.

2-Water Sports Team (3-1)-Faded down the lane as an odds choice in the Adios and before that won 3 straight after joining the Jenn B barn. This colt will be launched out to get the point and this is a talented field so should be tested. Probably the best chance to win will be getting the early lead and a few others will be thinking the same. Should be in the hunt but at a short price.

3-Rockin On Venus (10-1)-Hoosier Park invader loves to take pictures winning 8 of 12 this year and could look to come off the pace here. Not sure if this Rockin Image colt can show enough speed on a 1/2-mile oval to win but we may find out tonight.

4-Alilthundadownunda (20-1)-Home-bred has been a force at Aces winning 10 of 15 starts and gets the services of Chris Page here. But hasn't faced this level of competition and appears to be in too tough to hit the board.

5-Bayfield Beach (6-1)-Burke trainee has had a tough sophomore season and has had 3 different trainers. Makes the 1st start for Burke and it's a guessing game as to what type of effort will be coming with only 8 starts this year. Could be worth using underneath in gimmicks if the price is right.

6-Mysweetboymax (12-1)-Couldn't do much in the Adios despite a 53.3 back half. The issue there is the same here, doesn't have the gate speed to be put in play early. Merriman steers but this longshot could be overmatched.

7-Charlie May (5/2)-McCardle 3-year-old is in fine form finishing 1st in 3 straight on 3 different size ovals but was DQ'd in the Big M Pace. This post draw won't help but doesn't need to be on the engine in the early going to win. Usual pilot Brett Miller will be between the pipes and has hit the board in all 3 starts at NFLD with 2 wins.

8-Chase H Hanover (15-1)-This will be the 1st appearance at NFLD, and recent form has been dull. Not sure how Wrenn will get this son of Captaintreacherous involved. This post is a killer with so much speed inside and chances for success aren't high.

9-Heart Of Chewbacca (9/2)-This is the other Burke entry and would have been easily usable from the inside. Likes the NFLD surface has hit the board in all 3 starts with 2 pictures. Not sure how Dan Noble could put this colt in play. But best to not completely toss, could be used underneath if the price is right.

$20 to Win-1
$8 Exacta Key 1/2,7
$4 Exacta Key 2,7/1
$2 Exacta Key 1/3,5,9

Total Bet=$50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:25 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Saturday, August 14, 2021

August 14, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Launch Pad; 7-Sometimes Always

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a $16,000 claiming main track miler restricted to 3-year-olds. It’s a bit treacherous, so tread lightly. Launch Pad, a distant third in a tougher spot over this track and distance last month, drops a notch, adds blinkers, and has speed figures that are good enough to win. There should be ample pace signed on to compliment his late-running style, so we’ll put him slightly on top over the 2-1 morning line favorite, Sometimes Always, a maiden claiming sprint winner last time out but with prior form that suggests he’ll handle the stretch out to two-turns just fine. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Luck of the Draw; 4-Irish Heatwave

Forecast: Five of the eight entrants in this middle distance turf event for $25,000 older claimers exit the same race last month, and because the whole field finished in a heap they’re very difficult to separate today. The difference may be the pace flow, which was faster than par in that race and today projects to be much softer and thus may give Luck of the Draw a bit of an advantage. Claimed in his last pair and now in the P. Eurton barn, the veteran gelding prefers to be on or near the lead throughout and probably won’t have to work too hard to get where he wants to be. Fourth but beaten just a length in that common July 17 event and with U. Rispoli staying aboard, the son of Lookin At Lucky may be as good as any at 4-1 on the morning line. Irish Heatwave drops to his lowest level ever and the former stakes winner has recent speed figures that are good enough to win in this league. He’s another that prefers to be within striking range and may in fact be the controlling speed if nothing else goes. Given that type of trip, the P. Miller-trained gelding could get very brave. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bella Renella; 6-Vegan

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) claiming sprint for fillies and mares has two major contenders from the W. Spawr and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Vegan, freshened since June when she finished second in a similar event at Santa Anita, earned a career top speed figure in that race, one that is stronger than par for this level. She was 24-1 in due to poor prior form, but if she can turn in two alike she can outrun this group. A prior win over the Del Mar main track is another plus. Bella Renella, claimed by Spawr out of an open $12,500 sprint in June, showed some spark when a close third in that productive event (the first two finishers came back to win) and returns after a two month freshening. Despite the raise in claiming price, this race actually appears to be a softer spot, so if she can navigate a good trip from the rail, she should be a major player.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-She’s Our Charm

Forecast: She’s Our Charm has been sparingly raced this year (just two starts) and hasn’t been out since early May, but the R. McAnally-trained mare shows a sharp, steady, and healthy recent series of workouts to have her ready for a major effort over a turf course she’s always liked against a field of second-level allowance fillies and mares that her best effort can handle. Always most effective on the lead but capable of stalking and pouncing if the pace flow dictates, the veteran daughter of Candy Ride has a significant edge in the speed figure department and should have no excuses. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*

Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sugar Sugar; 6-Rock the Belles; 9-Half Past Twelve

Forecast: Sugar Sugar ran quite well when third in a legitimate straight maiden event behind the promising Grace Adler in her debut last month and shows up today in this expensive $150,000 maiden claimer. Does the class drop appear slightly disconcerting? A little bit, yes, though it’s not likely her connections are worried about losing her. It may be mean, though, that they simply don’t believe she’ll improve enough to win a maiden special weight event. There are two others to consider in rolling exotic play, either on the main ticket or as backups. Half Past Twelve, a distant fourth in her debut in a fast, highly-rated race, seems certain to improve with that race behind her and is realistically spotted while Rock the Belles shows a :46 2/5 gate work (fastest of 84) to indicate plenty of speed, though she brought only $20,000 at auction just a couple of months ago.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Burgoo Alley; 5-Carpe Fortuna; 9-Bleu Ballon; 12-Thrilling

Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-5 is a grass grab bag for 3-year-old fillies, five of which exit the race won by Javanica on July 18. Burgoo Alley, Carpe Fortuna, and Blue Ballon, the two-three-four finishers in that race, all ran well and are contenders again, but each had perfect trips, so we’re not quite sure how much better they’ll perform today. Thrilling is a wild card at 6-1. She shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we always like and a style and pedigree that suggest she’ll enjoy the added distance. However, she’s stuck way out in the 12-hole, which probably will lead to a wide trip unless she can somehow and drop in and find a slot before the clubhouse turn. In short, this race is a mess that requires a spread in rolling exotic play, so we’ll go-four deep with a very slight preference on top to Thrilling in a race that most likely will produce a blanket finish.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Wearenotbadpeople

Forecast: Wearenotbadpeople has trained well enough to win at first asking in this woefully weak state-bred sprint for older horses, but he had the misfortune of drawing the rail, always a precarious spot for a debut runner. If the son of Clubhouse Ride breaks even reasonably well, the inside draw shouldn’t be an issue. Maybe he’ll be good enough to overcome a sluggish start, anyway, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower there probably won’t be too much value to be found. To underline how soft this field is, the second choice at 5/2 on the morning line is Irondale, whose best race came two back when he finished second in a similar affair while earning a 54 Beyer speed figure. That’s 24 points lower than par for this race. Rolling exotic players may choose to single Wearenotbadpeople; others may choose to sit it out.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Neige Blanche; 5-Rideforthecause

Forecast: Rideforthecause and Neige Blanche are two proven marathoners and they’re very difficult to separate. ‘Blanche nosed out her rival two races back in the Santa Barbara S.-G3 over 12 furlongs at Santa Anita but ‘Cause got some measure of revenge when winning the shorter 10 furlong Possibly Perfect S. in mid-June. Today they meet in the “middle” in this year’s renewal of the CTT and TOC S. at a mile and three-eighths. Both should run well and a win by either one wouldn’t be a surprise. There are others in the field that deserve a look – for example, if Tapwater gets loose on the lead she may never look back – so in another race that probably is best watched rather than wagered on we’ll use the two listed above and hope to get one of them home.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Letsgetlucky

Forecast: Here’s yet another race on today’s program that offers a logical top choice that’s likely to be a shorter price than he should be. Letsgetlucky flashed speed before weakening to be a distant third in the Real Good Deal S. last month and today drops to a much easier first-level allowance state-bred while shortening to his preferred six furlong distance. Based purely on numbers, this is a field he’s supposed to beat, but then again he was supposed to win at this level two runs back and couldn’t seal the deal under pressure when second as the 6/5 favorite. The Munnings gelding appears the best of the speed types, and the late runners don’t inspire, so we’ll put him on top as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Nu Pi Lambda; 4-Fantail; 9-Lalic; 10-Isn’t She Lovely

Forecast: The finale is an “anything goes” turf sprint for entry-level/optional claiming fillies and mares. Fantail has the route-to-sprint angle we like, and while her form suggests she might be more comfortable around two turns we’re thinking this shortened trip is something that might really appeal to her. She has plenty of speed and in a race like this she’ll be allowed to use it. A couple of recent nice breezes around dogs over the local lawn tells us she’s doing very well. Nu Pi Lambda finished powerfully but too late when third in a similar affair over this course and distance last month. She’s 1-for-14 with eight seconds and thirds for a reason; the C. Gaines-trained filly lacks tactical speed and almost always gives herself too much to do. She’ll be rolling late, but she’ll need good racing luck and help up front to get up in time. Lalic returns to sprinting and is another who will be doing her best work from off the pace, but she’s another that may need more ground, while Isn’t She Lovely should benefit from this abbreviated sprint distance and has numbers that continue to move in the right direction, but her extreme outside draw means that she can’t make any mistakes leaving the gate.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:26 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Saturday, August 14, 2021

August 14, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-King Angelo; 7-War Smoke

Forecast: King Angelo was well-clear of the rest when a good runner-up in a dirt sprint at Belmont Park last month while earning by far a career top speed figure. If can repeat that type of race on grass, the son of Lemon Drop Kid should finally be able to earn his maiden diploma. The barn is 1-for-44 this year, so the confidence factor is low, but we’ll put this front-running colt on top over the second-time starter War Smoke, a troubled runner-up in his debut over this course and distance last month. Off slowly and very wide into the lane, the War Dancer colt loomed a strong threat but then may have lost a bit of his punch in the closing stages to miss by a neck. Hopefully, he’ll break better today and earn a ground-saving trip. These are the two we’ll prefer in our rolling exotics, but in something of a grass grab bag you should use as many as your budget allows.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: X
Use: 3-Sticky Issue; 7-Askin for a Baskin

Forecast: Here’s another maiden race for older sprinters, this one an extended dash on the main track. Askin for a Baskin is very fast on speed figures and probably will beat this field with a repeat of either one of his last two starts. Listed at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son off Distorted Humor can be the controlling speed in a field without much of it, or at worst find himself in a comfortable stalking position outside. Sticky Issue, a second-time starter from the P. Walder barn, displayed some ability when a decent runner-up vs. straight maidens in early July at Gulfstream Park after a less-than-ideal start. He shows a solid series of local drills, including a team drill Aug. 7 in which he stalked a stable mate and then drew clear under mild urging late in :1:00 1/5, sixth fastest of 35 for the five furlong distance. You can use him as a back-up or a saver, but the main push should go to Askin for a Baskin, unless the price in simply too short.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1x-Atone; 5-Klickitat; 8-St. Joe Louis

Forecast: This first-level allowance inner turf middle distance event appears fairly wide open, so we’ll spread the race in our rolling exotics. St. Joe Louis was visually impressive breaking his maiden two races back but was something less than that when unplaced at this level last time out. He was wide early and failed to secure a comfortable early position, then moved within range at the head of the lane before flattening out. The blinkers come off today (like that angle) and I. Ortiz, Jr. takes the call, so we’re counting on an improved performance, one that makes him dangerous off the number he earned at Belmont Park. We’d love to see some aggression leaving the gate to ensure a good stalking spot. Atone, coupled as an entry with Absam, ships in from Arlington Park where he finished a distant third in a tougher race last time out. He joins the M. Maker barn, so improvement certainly is possible after a two month freshening. The son of Into Mischief shows consistent speed figures and projects to settle in the second flight and have his chance from there. Klickitat returned to winning from at Belmont Park last month and shows two victories over the Saratoga lawn with numbers that are better than par for this level. He’ll be especially tough if he can make the running without pressure.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Investment Income; 3-Palamos

Forecast: Investment Income may have surprised her connections when she was nosed out at 12-1 while more than five clear of the rest in her debut at Monmouth Park in early June, performing well enough to be given a chance today in the Bigs. The daughter of Candy Ride lands the rail for this 9.5F maiden grass event for older fillies and mares and projects to settle in the second flight while saving ground and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Based on speed figures, she absolutely belongs here, and she if improves as expected the C. Brown-trained filly should be capable of earning her diploma. Palamos is faster on figs that out to pick but has had four chances so she may have a bit less room to improve. The G. Motion-trained daughter of Blame is a one-paced grinder but with some help up front she should be heard from late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Investment Income.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Win With Pride; 7-Inscom

Forecast: We won’t get too involved in this $16,000 claiming extended sprint for older horses other than to use two in rolling exotic play. Win With Pride drops to a proper level after being pitched too high in his last pair, and the veteran gelding, an 11-time career winner, should find this group within his current capabilities. In a field without much early speed, the O. Noda-trained gelding seems likely to enjoy a comfortable trip on or near the front end without having to be used much. With the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., we’ll make him a solid top pick. Inscom, away since February and returning at his lowest level ever, is another that should be happy with the projected pace scenario and if cranked up and relatively healthy could make a serious run for it.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Single: 2-Power Agenda

Forecast: We’ve really been looking forward to the debut of Power Agenda and expect T. Pletcher-trained son of Nyquist to graduate at first asking, assuming he breaks well from the gate, something he’s done quite well in his morning preparations. An August 8 half mile gate breeze in :47 2/5 while much best of the team could not have been more impressive, and with a good foundation of drills prior to that he’s certain to be plenty fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. At 9/5 on the morning line he’ll offer value in both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he goes lower than that.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Assiduously; 4-Restored Order; 6-Extreme Force

Forecast: This grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $40,000 older claimers is a challenging affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Restored Order was a gate-to-wire winner on grass at Saratoga last year while earning a career top number and we suspect similar tactics will be employed today in his first try in a seller. He switches to “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. and if not policed early could roll all the way to the wire. Extreme Force, a first-off-the-claim play for M. Maker, makes his first start on turf, and while his pedigree for grass doesn’t exactly jump off the page, who knows, maybe he’ll like it. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, he exits a series of sprints and should be forwardly placed in a field without any strong late punchers. Restored Order was a gate-to-wire winner on grass at Saratoga and similar tactics seem certain to be employed today. He’s reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., and if not policed early could roll all the way to the wire. Assiduously, one of several class droppers during the current meeting being culled from the Klaravich Stables, may have found his friends in his first start for a tag, though at 5/2 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value. His Monmouth Park form is okay but has numbers that aren’t even quite par for this level, so we’ll toss him on a ticket or two but that’s all.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mahaamel; 5-Ducale; 6-Defeater

Forecast: Ducale earned a giant speed figure – a stakes-quality number for a 3-year-old – when breaking his maiden last month over this track and distance and we anticipate he’ll continue to step forward with experience and maturity. If he’s going to be a really good colt for B. Cox, this is the type of race he’s supposed to win. However, it came up a very salty affair with others that have designs for bigger and better things as well. Mahaamel broke his maiden impressively two races back but then hooked a monster in Beau Liam and had to settle for third in a similar affair at this trip in mid-July. The son of Into Mischief should fire another huge shot today and it’ll be interesting to see how he stacks up with Ducale, as both have similar numbers. Defeater is worth tossing in on a ticket or two, though we suspect he’s using this race as a prep for a stretch-out. The son of Union Rags won his debut in smart fashion sprinting at Fair Grounds in January and then was fast finishing second in a first-level allowance router before being stopped on. He’ll be running on late and is worth watching closely for future reference.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Gunite; 8-Doctor Jeff

Forecast: Doctor Jeff won his debut by just over two lengths, but the margin could have been triple that had he not been eased up and geared down in the final sixteenth of a mile. The son of Street Boss should have enough early speed to be on or near the lead again without having to be sent hard and based a sharp recent workout the R. Rodriguez-trained colt should move forward off the race and handle the extra distance without any issue. He’s 2-1 on the morning and we’ll be happy with that price if we can get it. Gunite has rising numbers with each start, most recently winning a maiden sprint at Churchill Downs with authority. As a son of Gun Runner he can be expected to improve with more distance, and with blinkers being added today he might display enough early speed to be on the front end. If for some reason Doctor Jeff doesn’t run up to expectations, this S. Asmussen-trained colt is the logical alternative.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Raging Bull; 5-Set Piece

Forecast: Set Piece has never been better and in fact we may not have seen his best yet. A winner of nine of 16 career starts including his last three in strong stakes company, the English-bred gelding likes to lay back and blast home, and hopefully there will be enough early pace (and plenty of room to rally) to allow the B. Cox-trained gelding to produce another winning late kick. He’s 5/2 on the morning line and is worth every bit of that. Raging Bull lands the good rail, should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip, and is dangerous in his present form. The winner of the Maker’s Mark S.-G1 two runs back at Keeneland, the veteran French-bred horse is particularly fond of the Saratoga lawn and like our top pick can really finish with he gets his trip. We’ll have a few extra tickets keying Set Piece on top but use both in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 11: Post: 6:45 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Dr. Blute; 9-Dr. Duke; 10-Phantom Smoke

Forecast: State-bred first-level allowance sprinters collide in a competitive turf affair that offers a number of chances. Most of these have lower than par speed figures for the level, so a chaotic result would not be surprising. Phantom Smoke is a first-time Lasix user with just two career outings, so the Ghostzapper colt, away since December, could be much improved this time around. The C. Clement barn is strong (21%) with layoff runners, and if there’s a pace meltdown this colt, under J. Rosario, could easily pick up the pieces at 5-1 on the morning line. Dr. Blute earned his best number sprinting on grass at Aqueduct during the spring. A recent off-the-turf event fell far short of his best stuff but back on grass today the son of Not This Time projects to be on or near the lead throughout. The other Doctor in the field, Dr. Duke, may be the quickest in the field, though he’s always been suspect under pressure in the final stages. He exits the same race as Dr. Blute, and both will be happy to be back on the sod.
*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:28 AM

Eddie Olczyk: Saturday Spot Plays | August 14, 2021

August 13, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk
NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk pinpoints a trio of plays from his hometown Arlington Park and Del Mar for his Saturday best. Follow Edzo’s plays each week – only with 1/ST and Xpressbet.

Del Mar
Race 2 // 5:30 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
#6 Full of Luck (12-1 ML)

Value shot is 1 of 5 horses who ran in the same July 17 race at Del Mar. That was his third race in 23 days — just like the time from his last race until now. Bad post in last and showed some speed and fought on from the 11 post. Moves in today and catches a smaller field field size. Like to see a same scheme mentality in place by jockey Franco, who is a solid turf rider. There’s not a lot of pace in this race. If I owned the horse, the directions would be: go out of gate. Across-the-board bet and use in exotics.

//

Arlington Park
Race 7 // 5:49 pm ET // Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes // 1-3/16 miles (turf)
#4 Santa Barbara (2-1 ML)

We’ve had a lot of rain here recently in Chicago, and the course conditions should benefit her with give in ground. It’s a good field, not great, with Mean Mary to catch. Santa Barbara looks to be classy and her last race in New York was impressive. Win bet.

//

Arlington Park
Race 8 // 6:28 pm ET // Grade 1 Bruce D Stakes // 1 mile (turf)

#9 Like a Saltshaker (12-1 ML)
Pennsylvania-bred’s only career race on turf came last year at Belmont, finishing second in a competitive stakes. In a race where it looks like the two inside horses are the speed, maybe this one can follow, stalking the pace, then punch home the last quarter-mile. Price will be right. Across-the-board bet and use in the exotics.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:29 AM

Race of the Week: Mister D from Arlington | Saturday, Aug. 14

August 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 1 $600,000 MISTER D STAKES AT ARLINGTON PARK
Saturday, August 14, 2021

The Lead:
In what is expected to be the final edition of what was once known as the Arlington Million, Saturday's Grade 1 Mister D Stakes at Arlington Park likely closes a bittersweet chapter in American racing history. The inaugural Million in 1981 was the first non-Triple Crown race that I ever watched on national television, and Google informs me that I wasn't alone: 50 million tuned into NBC to see the first seven-figure Thoroughbred race in American history. John Henry won that one, and won again in the 1984 Million. Other stars like Estrapade, Manila, Steinlen, Paradise Creek, Gio Ponti and Bricks and Mortar all etched their names in its history as well. Saturday's Mister D is featured in Race 9 of 10 and part of all-stakes late pick four and pick five wagers.

Field Depth:
Multiple Grade 1 winner DOMESTIC SPENDING has risen to the top of the American grass ranks this year. ZULU ALPHA is a Grade 1 winner of the Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream. ARMORY is an English Group 2 winner and Group 1-placed. SPACE TRAVELER is a Group 2 winner in Ireland. BIZZEE CHANNEL won the local Grade 3 prep.

Pace:
Rail-drawn STRONG TIDE has some early interest for the mile and one-quarter journey. But TWO EMMYS set the tempo in the local prep with BIZZEE CHANNEL chasing. That's the likely front-runner. Outside-drawn BIG DREAMING, like his champion mama Dreaming of Anna, has done his best running when able to get to the front. The pace should be more than fair up front and give the late runners a chance to shine.

Our Eyes:
This race almost has to be a match race between the American DOMESTIC SPENDING and the Irish import ARMORY. That's not breaking news when we're talking Chad Brown and Aidan O'Brien in another titans of the turf clash. The two trainers stand out on class as much as their horses do in this particular race. Brown has won the Arlington Million 4 times since 2013, including the last 3 offered. O'Brien owns a couple of trophies in 2005 and 2011, and would have more if not for some poor racing luck and stewards' decisions. The struggles the past several years for O'Brien with his US runners appeared to wane this summer as he swept the Belmont Derby and Oaks in July. The Coolmore crew has lost 16 in a row at Arlington since a stakes score in 2015. The barn edge has to go to Brown in search of his fourth straight win in this race. As for the equine combatants, DOMESTIC SPENDING has yet to face a rival of ARMORY's quality, a 7-1 runner-up in the world renowned Cox Plate in Australia and a 5-2 third-place finisher in Royal Ascot's tradition-rich Prince of Wales's Stakes. Both are highly capable over the mile and one-quarter.

The dynamic duo has a decided advantage over the rest of the Mister D cast. ZULU ALPHA would be the next in line in terms of reputation and credentials. But his signature score in the Pegasus World Cup came in January 2020. He was soundly beaten as the 4-5 favorite in the Arlington Stakes, the local prep, by 3 of the runners he'll face again. A turn-around would be a surprise, but trainer Mike Maker (who also sends out GLYNN COUNTY) has been America's hottest trainer since the start of July. The Betmix database shows him with a $1.52 ROI for every $1 bet during that time.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
DOMESTIC SPENDING has won 6 of 7 and is less than 2 lengths from perfection, including a win at the distance.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GLYNN COUNTY closed ground in the United Nations at Monmouth over a course that traditionally doesn't play as friendly to late runners as Arlington. With several of the longer-priced horses in here expected to be part of the pace, this late-runner could light the exotics at a price with a late maneuver.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Multi-race bets will provide the most value given the predicted outcome. $80 daily double DOMESTIC SPENDING with ANOTHER MYSTERY in Race 10. $20 daily double DOMESTIC SPENDING with CAMMACK in Race 10.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:30 AM

Saturday FITS Analysis: Saratoga & Del Mar

August 12, 2021 | By Johnny D

Donald Jaffe led all Fun in the Sun players last Saturday with $297 in earnings to collect $2,415 and a Final Table seat. It’s the second time Jaffe has earned a Final Table seat and he joins Steven Jones and Ellis Starr as multiple seat winners. Nicholas Nagy finished just $2 behind Jaffe in Week 4 and collects $1,006.25 plus a seat at the Final Table. Starr, winner of the first week’s competition, finished third at $276 in earnings. He bagged an additional $603.75 in prize money and his second Final Table seat. Starr now leads all competitors with $3,501.75 in seasonal prize earnings.

The Fun in the Sun Final Table pot is expected to peak at $20,000 for the main event. That total includes $10,000 in Xpressbet seed money. 55% of the pot will go to the winner (over $10k estimate), with 25% to second, 10% to third and 5% to fourth and fifth. At that level of play, you’ll want to be part of the action, especially since the field should include just 35 entries (barring ties for seats in the coming weeks).

Week 5 of Fun in the Sun competition is Saturday and includes the last 5 races at Saratoga and the first 5 at Del Mar. Fun in the Sun requires a $25 weekly registration and players are asked to make $10 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 competition races. Below is one man’s handicapping analysis of those races with an eye toward pointing out an angle or two you may have missed. Handicapping is done for Fast and Firm surfaces and before scratches and changes and does not include analysis of ‘Also Eligible’ runners.

Saratoga
Race 7
Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile (Turf)

#1 Bricco broke maiden going one mile on ‘good’ Aqueduct turf in April last out. The 4-year-old gelding has some good Saratoga runner-up races on his resume going one mile on turf at the state-bred maiden $40k level. He’s a bit slow Beyer-wise.

#2 Big Blue woke up to win three back at Gulfstream when dropped to the maiden $25k claiming level. Another good effort at Gulfstream when second in an optional $35k claimer/starter allowance race in April led to a poor effort in June at Churchill. Seems to be overmatched in here.

#3 Assiduously is taking a class drop in here for trainer Chad Brown and races for a tag for the first time. Class drops like this often are a concern but at Saratoga they’re almost a positive as owners fire best shots at winning. This 4-year-old gelding broke maiden at Tampa and has been second in a first-level allowance race at Monmouth this year. He even finished third in a Belmont allowance race and was last in the Gr. 2 Hill Prince over a yielding course. Must be respected.
#4 Restored Order takes a drop into a claiming race for trainer Todd Pletcher and gets Irad Ortiz in the saddle—29% combo. This appears an aggressive move with the 3-year-old purchased for $420k as a 2-year-old. He’s got a win over the Saratoga turf course last summer but has had interruptions in his racing schedule. He was next to last in the slop at Belmont last out, so the drop makes sense.

#5 Amistad is 1 for 14 and usually isn’t close, except when second three back at roughly this level.

#6 Extreme Force was claimed last out in July at about this level when dropped from $50k to $30k by trainer Steve Asmussen. New conditioner Mike Maker is hitting at 29% at the meet and is good with new runners off the claim. Negative is that this 4-year-old colt is just 1 for 13 with 5 thirds and this will be his first start on turf and just his second around two turns. Please note: jockey Jose Ortiz replaces brother Irad in the saddle and he combines with Maker to win at 32%!

#7 K. K. Ichikawa set the pace most of the way before fading to third at the level at Belmont going a sixteenth of a mile further. Jockey Joel Rosario rides back for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. The 4-year-old gelding broke maiden for state-bred $40k in September and hasn’t been close until last out. This will be his third start for Rudy and he races evenly throughout.

#8 More Like It was claimed out of the common Belmont $40k non-winners of 2 last out. He was second by a head at the level going one mile in October and has run well at Saratoga sprinting—a win and second in three tries. Blinkers go on for new trainer Hal Handel who is 17% first off the claim and just 6% with blinkers on. Expect to find this one close to the early pace under Franco. Exotics at a price.

#9 Public Information defeated a few of these in the common race at this level at Belmont Park July 1 but was disqualified for interference and placed fifth. He was claimed from the Chad Brown outfit that afternoon by Wayne Potts and a recent Spa start in a $50k starter wasn’t impressive. A return to this live level certainly should help the cause. Gaffalione rides and the trainer-jock combo are 29% (7 starts) together.

#10 Justintimeforwine went wire to wire to win a six-furlong Aqueduct turf sprint in April and was third after setting the pace in a Belmont turf route at about this level. He’s 1 for 21, so it’s difficult to muster much love for the 4-year-old gelding.

#11 Holy Emperor adds blinkers for trainer Joe Sharp off a wide trip at this level over the Spa course. He’s stuck outside in here and doesn’t have much speed, so another wide trip seems in the offing. His last win came when he was claimed at this level in April.

#12 Eucharist was claimed last out by Bob Klesaris (5% first off claim) out of a $25k Spa dirt sprint. The 3-year-old will try turf for the first time off a first out Keeneland sprint win followed by a trio of also-ran efforts—two this year and two last year. Changes in barn, surface and distance may help, post won’t.

Drop for the Pop: #3, #4
Lookout, Stretchout: #6
On the Improve: #7

Race 8
Allowance
Three Year Olds & Upward
Seven Furlongs

#2 Meister has been third in 3 starts since breaking maiden first out at Ellis Park. He’s been gelded since his last start in November and will race with first-time Lasix for trainer Ian Wilkes and jock Irad Ortiz. The gelding has improved Beyer Speed Figures in all four races and has a bullet five-furlong work for this. He will try to make an impact late from off the pace. This water seems a bit deep for him.

#3 Ten for Ten raced in the Gr. 2 Remsen and Gr. 3 Nashua last year and showed the early pace in both before fading to second. This shorter distance should be better for him. He last raced July 17 and didn’t fire with first-time Lasix for trainer Shug McGaughey. Two of his best races has come in the slop.
#4 Speaker’s Corner figures live in here as two of the world’s leading racing stables lock horns with a pair of homebreds. Bill Mott trains this son of Street Sense for Godolphin as they meet #5 Ducale for Juddmonte. This colt was a slow-breaking third first out here last year and then won a 7-furlong maiden race at Belmont in October. He’s been favored in both starts. He has a nice 1:00 4/5 gate drill over the Spa training track and will race first-time Lasix under Jose Ortiz.

#5 Ducale makes his third start for trainer Brad Cox (incredible 39% winner here). The Juddmonte homebred son of Twirling Candy was favored in both starts, breaking maiden last out going seven furlongs here July 17. That was an impressive performance and a repeat makes him a winner here. He’s got enough speed to be close early and Manny Franco returns in the saddle.

#1 Mahaamel adds some early spice and overall interest to the race. This son of Into Mischief has made 3 starts for trainer Todd Pletcher and they’ve all been at seven furlongs and pretty good efforts. His best came over a ‘muddy’ Belmont strip when he broke maiden, but he’s been second and third in the other two. He’s drawn outside the other speed in here and that’s an advantage. He should have something big to say about the outcome of this race.

#6 Defeater invades from Fair Grounds where he made two starts one in Jan and one in Feb. The former was an off-the-pace sprint tally and the latter was a late-finishing runner-up effort around two turns. This son of Union Rags obviously is talented and will be coming late under jockey Joel Rosario for trainr Tom Amoss (21% here).

#1A Ashiham broke maiden last out in his sixth lifetime start. That was here, a year ago, going one mile and one-eighth. He’s coupled in here with a Pletcher stablemate and appears the less threatening of the two, mostly because his closing style at a distance of ground hasn’t been enough to get there. Connections hope things heat up early in here so this son of Tapit has something to run at. He’s improved steadily but probably is a reach in here.

#7 Will Sing for Wine hasn’t raced since December and has just one win in 9 starts. That was one mile at Aqueduct and was fast enough to sniff these. Still, this field seems fairly deep and this might be a prep for longer.

#8 Mr. Tip won a $50k starter last out going around two turns at Churchill. He was claimed for $20k in Feb. at Gulfstream. He’s got 4 wins—3 more than anyone else in here—and his trainer is running red-hot (29%). Still, he’s got no early speed and seems overmatched late.

Top Pair: #4, #5

Race 9
Saratoga Special
Two Year Olds
Six & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Nakatomi won first out in slop at Keeneland then dwelt in Gr. 2 Norfolk at Ascot. Bounce back for Ward from rail?

#2 Gunite ran fast and strong to win a maiden race at Churchill but adds blinkers off the win for trainer Steve Asmussen, who’s batting 24% here. Why the blinks? Trainer must think there’s more in the tank.

#3 Ottoman Empire adds blinks off a disappointing try in the Gr. 3 Sanford at nearly 10-1. Best in previous, first out start at Churchill while winning a slow-ish heat.

#4 Kitodan broke maiden last out in fourth career start. Needs to go faster in here.

#5 Midnight Worker won only start at 10-1 by game head here at Spa for Todd Pletcher. Will need to step up his game to add this to his resume. Still, I. Ortiz and Pletcher are nearly 30% together and 10-1 odds are interesting for price seekers.

#6 Stolen Base if fresh off a recent romp against restricted maidens in fast time going five and one-half furlongs here. He’s 8-1 in a competitive race for hot conditioner Mike Maker at 29%.

#7 Double Thunder is 2 for 2, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velasquez. He’s 6-1 partially because his wins came at Monmouth and at Churchill. The most recent was in the Gr. 3 Bashford Manor when he hopped at the start and then rallied to win going away. Seems an interesting price on this one.

#8 Doctor Jeff won his only start over a ‘good’ Belmont track going six furlongs. The race was originally scheduled for turf and he beat just 4 other foes in fast time. He’s 2-1 on the morning line off that effort but others seem as talented…or at least possibly as talented. Did the ‘off’ track move him up? How will he deal with more pressure, additional foes, Spa surface? Too many questions at a short price.

#9 Dance Code broke maiden first out at Parx and then stumbled badly at the start of the Gr. 3 Sanford at nearly 30-1. Seems in tough here but should run better than last. Exotics bomb?

#10 Glacial won wire-to-wire first out and then was third-best in the Bashford Manor behind #7 Double Thunder. Bit slow Beyers for our tastes.

#11 High Oak won first out for trainer Bill Mott--a trainer known for having young horses race into shape. Could be more in the tank second time out but will need to go much faster, according to Beyer Speed Figures.

#12 Red Run was a lukewarm favorite when disappointing last out in the common Bashford Manor at Churchill. Before that he broke maiden in the slop at the ‘Downs as odd-on choice. Jockey Santana stays with #2 Gunite, also for trainer Assmussen. This guy would need to turn it around Beyer-wise to threaten in here.

Spread-ish: #5 #6, #7, #9
Against: #8

Race 10
Fourstardave
Grade 1
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile (Turf)

#1 Raging Bull won the Grade 1 Makers Mark at Keeneland in April and then returned in what appeared to slam dunk spot in the Gr. 3 Poker. He was upset by the accomplished, pregnant, 7-year-old Oleksandra. Moral of the story…don’t mess with mamma. Fifth in this race last year and second the year before that, Raging Bull figures strong in here. He’s 6 years old but seems to be in sold form. The rail, Irad Ortiz, Chad Brown, a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner, all positives. He does come from off the pace and might need pace help that should come from #8 Blowout, also from the Chad Brown stable.

#2 Whisper Not invades from the coast for trainer Richard Baltas. A Grade 3 stakes winner, this 4-year-old seems overmatched in here. However, Baltas knows what he’s doing and it’s doubtful that he’d ship cross-country for no reason. On paper, this guy needs to move forward to contend but gut feeling says there may be more than meets the eye. Exotics?

#3 Daddy Is a Legend also is a 6-year-old mare whose best races were in 2019. She’s won 5 of 19 lifetime but is just 1-10 at this distance. She seems in deep this time but was third last out in June against mares in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at Belmont.

#4 Casa Creed knocked down a Grade 1 triumph in the six-furlong Jaipur at Belmont last out in June. That was one of the best races of his career and it came on the heels of 7-furlong stakes victory, but he’s just 2 for 11 at this one-mile distance. He finished third in this race last year as a 4-year-old. He has a win over this course at this distance in the Gr. 2 Hall of Fame in 2019. Solid this season since well-beaten try in BC Mile, he’s probably one you need in exotics.

#5 Set Piece has won three in a row, including the Gr. 2 Wise Dan last out at Churchill. He’s a 5-year-old who’s fired the best races of his career in his last 2 starts. Trainer Brad Cox is going gangbusters this season, winning at nearly 40% at the Spa. This gelding’s running style is from well off the pace and he and #1 Raging Bull will be looking for room when the real running starts. He should benefit from whatever pace is set by #8 Blowout. This guy’s good right now. Tough to look past him.

#6 Got Stormy is one of 3 mares in here. She was best in 2019, re-invented in 2020 as a late-running sprinter and now, at 6, seemingly, not as good. She gets in light for 0-16 Spa trainer Mark Casse and loves the Saratoga lawn with 2 wins and a second in as many tries. She’s also 9 for 19 at the distance. Again, most of that success came earlier in her career.

#7 Field Pass figures to get a nice trip behind ‘rabbit’ pacesetter #8 Blowout. He hasn’t quite been good enough to finish the job at this level, but he’s only 4 years old, so better could be coming down the road. Trainer Mike Maker has been on fire at the Spa, hitting at nearly 30%. #1 Raging Bull and #5 Set Piece have defeated this one in the past.

#8 Blowout is interesting. While it appears like the mare’s in the race to set the pace for stablemate #1 Raging Bull, she’s got a pretty solid record against her own sex and is Gr. 1 placed—lost Matriarch by a nose in November. She’s been worse than second once, when third, so you won’t find a more honest mare anywhere. All 8 of her losses have come by less than a length and most by a mere neck. How will she match up against males? Probably pretty well. She’s made 3 starts at Saratoga with 2 seconds and 1 third, so she handles the course well. She’ll do her job of setting an honest pace, will she do it too well and hang on for the win?

One to Beat: #1 Raging Bull
Hot: #5 Set Piece
What’s He Doing Here? #2 Whisper Not

Race 11
State Bred Allowance
Three Year Olds & Upward Foaled in New York
Five & One-Half Furlongs (Turf)

#1 Volkert, a 3-year-old, won first out going six furlongs over a ‘good’ Belmont turf course in June at nearly 65-1 odds. A July effort at this level was poor. Needs quick turnaround. Pass.

#2 Neuro broke maiden in his 14th start last out over this course at this distance. Was second in the race before that. Has some efforts that fit with these, but that overall mark for a low-profile barn is difficult to take. Not impossible, but a reach.

#3 Frat convincingly defeated ‘open’ foes at Monmouth last out. He had failed in 8 previous starts, most of them for a state-bred $40k tag. He has speed and an inside draw which should help his cause. Those maiden claiming defeats stick in our craw. He’ll make them run early, but it’s ‘late’ when the issues arise.

#4 Dr. Blute gets a rider change to Jose Ortiz and that’s notable because trainer Kimmel bats 22% overall with Jose. This 3-year-old gelding won first out over a sloppy track, finished second next out at this level on turf and then failed in a ‘muddy’ stakes. He showed a bit of life last out in Spa mud and should appreciate a return to turf. Something to think about.

#5 Clamor is a 5-year-old with 1 win and one second in 15 starts, mostly for claiming tags. Probably not.

#6 Halpert, a 3-year-old, has 1 good race out of 5 and that was a ‘muddy’ Aqueduct score in November. Irad Ortiz replaces brother Jose in the saddle for tough luck trainer Jeremiah Englehart (1 for 23 at Spa with 6 seconds). He did close some ground in his last going six furlongs but needs to do much better to win this.

#7 Luna’s in Charge has won just 1 race in 16 tries and at 5-years-old would be a surprise. Trainer Phillip Baur has had a strong Spa stand with 3 wins and 3 seconds out of 12 starters here.

#8 Mommie’s Jewel broke maiden last out here in mud. Close in 3 of 5 previous career races, mostly for state-bred claiming $40k, this 4-year-old has some talent, but would need to be faster to win this. Jose Ortiz won on this colt last out and jumps to #4 Dr. Blute.

#9 Dr. Duke didn’t handle a muddy track, first against elders last out, but was second by a head on turf at Gulfstream against fellow allowance sophs before that. The colt showed speed down south and has tried stakes foes without disgrace. Jose Ortiz is replaced by Eric Cancel for low-profile trainer Jena Antonucci.

#10 Phantom Smoke adds Lasix in third start off layoff for trainer Christophe Clement. The 3-year-old colt won first out, so he can fire fresh, gets Rosario, 25% with Clement at the Spa, and has enough speed to be stalking the early pacesetters. Clement is 21% off the layoff, 19% first Lasix and 23% in turf sprints—all solid numbers. Count him ‘in.’

Most Interesting: #4, #10

Del Mar

Race 1
Claiming
Three Year Olds
One Mile

#1 Diva’s Finale had blinkers removed last out and closed some ground late to be third at one level above this going five and one-half furlongs. That effort suggests to connections that additional ground will be welcome at this career lowest level.

#2 Mr. Pickles scored at Pleasanton going one mile and 70 yards last out at this level. That was the gelding’s third win in 13 starts. These should be stronger than what he faced last out but at least he’s in good form.

#3 Bourbonwithatwist also arrives from Pleasanton, out of a five and one-half furlong sprint. He’s got speed and could get away a bit up front in here. How long he’ll stay around is the question.

#4 Launch Pad adds blinkers in here for 1 for 38 trainer Bob Hess. Claimed for $20k in April, this ridgeling was a well-beaten third at the distance for $20k earlier this meeting.

#5 Achilleus broke maide at the $30k level and was claimed from the effort in April. Last out was not great in a $16k non-winners of 2. Pass.

#6 Language Barrier enters off 2 poor efforts and may have been entered to make the race go for trainer O’Neill’s other runner #1 Diva’s Finale.

#7 Sometimes Always just broke maiden for $20k at Del Mar July 30. This isn’t an especially tough group, so a repeat tally for this guy isn’t impossible. He’s got speed and Rispoli returns in the irons. It should be noted that the gelding has been claimed in 4 of his 6 starts and makes his second start for Matt Shirer.

Best: #1, #7

Race 2
Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile & One-Sixteenth

#1 Jasikan has been gone since Feb when a claim for $32k was voided. A slight drop down the ladder makes sense for trainer John Sadler during an uncharacteristically rough meeting (3 for 42). He has no speed and is just 2 for 10 on turf.

#2 French Getaway closed well to just miss by three-quarters of a length July 17 on Del Mar turf. Trainer Hess is looking for his second win of the meeting and jockey Mike Smith returns in the saddle for this 8-year-old. He needs some racing luck but often is around for a slice.

#3 Luck of the Draw was claimed last out for $25k and emerges from a common race with many in here. He’s got some speed but Rispoli probably will allow him to sit inside and wait for late racing room. Trainer Peter Eurton is having a solid meet and this guy seems like a smart claim.

#4 Irish Heatwave drops back to this claimed level of $25k where he was second in January at Santa Anita. It’s the type of aggressive placing that helps trainer Peter Miller win races in bunches. This 5-year-old gelding has shown speed on occasion and Hernandez won going wire-to-wire with him going one mile and one-eighth in May. He looks live.

#5 Full of Luck comes out of the common July 17 $25k race where he was 28-1 and finished sixth. The field was well-bunched at the finish that afternoon, so it may be advisable to look elsewhere for the winner of this rematch. This 8-year-old hasn’t won since March for $20k on Golden Gate’s main track.

#6 The Black Album also comes out of the common July 17 race--eighth, beaten 3 lengths. He was claimed there for $25k and had been claimed out of his previous start for $32k. He’s entered here for $22,500 and the descending claiming prices don’t inspire confidence.

#7 Storm the Bastille is another out of the July 17 common race. He was claimed out of that race and out of his previous start, both for $25k. Both recent races were solid efforts. He should be respected but not feared. He’s just 2 for 19 lifetime. One of those wins did come over Del Mar turf.

#8 Wesphire races for a tag for the first time and that’s always a good time to take a second look at any runner. 0-12 trainer Andrew Lerner adds blinkers. Most of this one’s 9 starts have come at Golden Gate—on turf and main track. This 5-year-old gelding really has no speed and that makes his job more difficult than it should be. A class drop to the claiming level might help. He was 85-1 last out in a $40k optional claimer/allowance race at Santa Anita and 44-1 in a Golden Gate optional claiming $62.

Best: #4
Next Best #3

Race 3
Claiming
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward
Six Furlongs

#1 Bella Renella was claimed for $12,500 last out in June and returns at a likely level for veteran trainer Bill Spawr—9% off the claim. Rail isn’t the best place to sprint from at Del Mar and Spawr has another more live in #6 Vegan. This one may have been entered to help to make the race go.

#2 Summer Love tumbles from a longshot try at the $32k level. This is a much more acceptable assignment, but the filly hasn’t really run well since a wire-to-wire effort at the $16 non-winners of 2 level in November and a wire-to-wire trip is unlikely for her.

#3 Win Often last out raced for a tag for the first time since winning a state-bred $50 maiden race first out in October of ’19. He’ll need to turn his recent stuff around under apprentice Alex Centeno (0-12 at the meet).

#4 Dozo was claimed last out at this level after setting the pace and backing up. She’s got speed and will use it under Maldonado for trainer Steve Knapp. She’s won 2 of 4 races and that’s a pretty solid resume in here but that’s the wrong style.

#5 Sweet Soulmate went wire-to-wire to defeat $16k non-winners of 2 last out. She just hung on at the finish. She used the same tactics effectively to break maiden at the $30k level. Expect her and #4 Dozo to hook up early, which won’t help either one of them.

#6 Vegan ran well to be second at about this level in June at Sant Anita. It appears trainer Bill Spawr has found the correct spot for this one as she’s just outside the two other speed horses in here and the claiming level seems ideal. She should run well.

#7 Trip to Freedom goes for Jerry Hollendorfer off a poor effort for $40k July 30. The drop makes sense and could be the key as connections search for the right spot. She’s been most successful when racing on the lead and she’ll have company early in here. Best news for her is that she’s drawn outside the other speed.

Best: #6 Vegan
Next: #7 Trip to Freedom

Race 4
Allowance Optional Claiming
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward
One Mile (Turf)

#1 She’s So Special returns to face allowance company after a couple of stakes tries. She’s appears well-spotted for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Rispoli. She’s 3 for 10 on turf but the one-mile distance hasn’t been her best trip so far (0-3). She should get a real nice pace to chase and should be able to save ground on the rail and be looking for a way through in the lane.

#2 Quiet Secretary has speed and should show the way from an inside post position. She’s been a consistent sort with 3 wins from 7 turf starts, including a win over the Del Mar layout. Baze got to know her last out and isn’t shy about going to the lead.

#3 Querelle also starts for the Pete Miller barn and must overcome a 0-8 record at the distance on turf. That’s asking a lot. She is in good form following a runner-up effort at five furlongs on turf July 25. She seems like the less of the Miller pair.

#4 She’s Our Charm hasn’t been out since May and should add some pace to this race, particularly fresh off a layoff. She’s been a steady performer for breeder and trainer Ron McAnally, although Del Mar has not been her favorite turf course. She’ll be around a while up front.

#5 Lounge Act seems overmatched and has two wire-to-wire turf wins and that’s not the style that’s going to work in here.

#6 Trickle In makes a first start for trainer Doug O’Neill She boasts three wire to wire wins, including a stakes win at Delaware Park in July ’20. With all the speed signed on in here, something’s got to give.

#7 Disappearing Act has been plying her trade at longer distances. She doesn’t have the stakes experience of some of her foes, but her closing style ought to work well in here and jockey Van Dyke is patient enough to make that plan of attack work. She finished behind #2 Quiet Secretary last out going one mile and one-eighth at Del Mar, but there seems to be enough speed in here to force the early pace more at this one-mile distance.

#8 Golden Curl is a new face locally that was claimed for $40k at Keeneland in April. She’s had some allowance experience but has done her best work at the claiming level. This will be her first start for trainer Tim Yakteen and she’s in for the $62,500 tag. She’s another in here that likes to race on the front end, but does have an off-the-pace score showing last Sept.

#9 Hotitude will shed blinkers for this. She hasn’t started since May and was basically a sprinter with just one try at this distance on turf. This appears to be a race designed to leg her up for a cut back sprint attempt.

Best: #1
Next: #7

Race 5
Maiden Claiming
Fillies Two Years Old
Five & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Macho Queen went for $70k as a 2-year-old and has slow-ish works on tab for this rail debut.

#2 Wetherly had a difficult first out at 30-1 odds and will need to show more.
#3 Baby Steps beat 4 foes home first out at 7-1. Apprentice Emily Ellingwood tries her hand here for trainer Ryan Hanson. She brought $70k as a 2-year-old.

#4 Sugar Sugar showed speed and faded late for Peter Miller first out against straight maidens July 31. The experience of a solid recent first race always helps. She has to be considered.

#5 Ruby Ray makes her third start for trainer Doug O’Neill and was a $55k 2-year-old purchase. She’s shown some speed but faded badly in her last when blinkers were added. They come off for this.

#6 Rock the Belles is a first-time starter from the dangerous Luis Mendez barn. She sports a best of 84 :46 2/5 bullet for this. Guessing the $20k 2-year-old purchase has speed.

#7 Sacred Beauty is by Classic Empire and went for $80k as a yearling at Keeneland. She’s had a solid series of works so she should be fit. Nothing too flashy, though and the trainer is 0-15 with first time starters.

#8 Talkative Gal is a third time starter for trainer Doug O’Neill. Her first was horrible and she dropped to the $50k level and ran better. What might we get this time?

#9 Half Past Twelve is a second-time starter for Steve Knapp. She broke slow first out and ran evenly at 39-1 odds. She was a $30k Keeneland yearling purchase.

#10 She’s Got a Way goes first time for trainer Peter Eurton who’s not known to win with first time starters (3%). An $80k yearling purchase, she has some nice works showing, especially a 1:00 gate move at Del Mar that was 4th best of 30 August 2. Love a solid 5-furlong gate work.

Best: #4
Next: #10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:32 AM

Knicks Go is No. 1 Again After Whitney Victory

August 11, 2021 | By Jon White
When Knicks Go proved a punctual even-money favorite in Saratoga’s Grade I, $1 million Whitney Stakes at 1 1/8 miles last Saturday, his dominant performance did have Breeders’ Cup ramifications.

Knicks Go ran his way right out the Grade I BC Dirt Mile and right into the Grade I BC Classic.

After winning the BC Dirt Mile at Keeneland in 2020, he will not be defending his title in that $1 million event this year at Del Mar, according to trainer Brad Cox. In a BloodHorse video the day after the Whitney, Cox told Claire Crosby that Knicks Go is “owed the opportunity” to run in the BC Classic after having already won the BC Dirt last year.

In the $6 million BC Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 6, Knicks Go will attempt to successfully stretch his speed out to 1 1/4 miles.

Cox has said the plan is for Knicks Go to have one race between now and the BC Classic, though what that one race will be has yet to be determined. A distinct possibility is Churchill Downs’ Grade III Lukas Classic at 1 1/8 miles on Oct. 2, especially since Churchill is where Knicks Go will be stabled at the time of that race.

All indications are that when Knicks Go runs in the BC Classic, he will boldly go where he has not gone before, i.e., beyond 1 1/8 miles,

Knicks Go began alertly in the Whitney, but he did not immediately clear the field. He vied for the lead in the run to the first turn while racing outside the filly Swiss Skydiver. But then, in the blink of an eye on the turn, Knicks Go opened a daylight advantage before reaching the backstretch.

Running on a turn has become something of a weapon for Knicks Go. He seems to possess the athleticism to navigate a turn quicker than his adversaries. His prowess on a turn perhaps helps explain all of Knicks Go’s wins and losses after Cox took over the training duties prior to Knicks Go’s first 2020 start.

For Cox, Knicks Go is six for six in two-turn races and winless both times he’s raced around one turn. Knicks Go finished fourth in the Group I, $20 million Saudi Cup at about 1 1/8 miles around one turn on Feb. 20, then also ran fourth in the Grade I, $1 million Met Mile around one turn on June 5.

Last Saturday, Knicks Go opened up a commanding five-length lead early in the run down the backstretch while smoothly rolling along for jockey Joel Rosario. Approaching the far turn, Knicks Go’s lead diminished “as he was given a breather,” as accurately noted in the Equibase race chart.

Turning for home, Swiss Skydiver loomed menacingly when she moved up to get within about a length of Knicks Go at the quarter pole. But then, after Knicks Go drifted a bit wide coming into the lane, he found another gear in upper stretch. Knicks Go kicked away to increase his lead to three lengths a furlong out, then continued home strongly to prevail by 4 1/2 lengths in an excellent 1:47.40.

Knicks Go recorded fractional times in fifths of :23 2/5, :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :24 2/5 and :12 4/5.

The $535,000 first prize in the Whitney raised Knicks Go’s career bankroll to $5,368,995. The four opponents left in his wake last Saturday have all earned in excess of $1 million.

Maxfield never threatened and finished second. Silver State briefly looked dangerous from along the inner rail coming into the lane, but then lacked the needed punch in the final furlong and came in third. Swiss Skydiver, racing for the first time since April 17, weakened in the stretch and finished fourth, nearly 11 lengths behind Knicks Go. By My Standards trailed throughout after stumbling at the start.

In the wake of Knicks’ Go’s resounding triumph in such a strong edition of the Whitney, the 5-year-old Kentucky-bred son of Paynter regained the top spot in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll.

Knicks Go ranked No. 1 in week one of the poll on Feb. 16. That was after Knicks Go had won Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Pegasus World Cup in front-running fashion by 2 3/4 lengths at 1 1/8 miles on Jan 23.

Below is the Top 10 as it was in the first NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2021:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 341 Knicks Go (27)
2. 250 Charlatan (4)
3. 232 Maxfield (1)
4. 223 Monomoy Girl (3)
5. 146 Colonel Liam
6. 124 Swiss Skydiver
7. 102 Jesus’ Team
8. 72 Gamine
9. 56 Channel Maker
10. 55 Whitmore

But Knicks Go was able to stay in the top spot for only one week. After he finished fourth in the Saudi Cup on Feb. 20, he slipped to No. 2. Saudi Cup runner-up Charlatan replaced Knicks Go at No. 1.

This is where Knicks Go has ranked each week in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poo from week one on Feb. 16 to week 26 this week:

1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 10, 10, 10, 9, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6, 1

The drop from No. 2 to No. 10 occurred after Knicks Go’s defeat as the 4-5 favorite in the Met Mile on June 5. Silver State won the Met Mile. That same Silver State was no match for Knicks Go in the Whitney.

And now Knicks Go has regained the No. 1 position. Maxfield this week drops to No. 5 from No. 2, while Silver State moves down to No. 6 this week after being No. 5 last week.

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 374 Knicks Go (29)
2. 326 Letruska (7)
3. 269 Essential Quality (1)
4. 251 Domestic Spending (2)
5. 250 Maxfield
6. 148 Silver State
7. 92 Gamine
8. 65 Mandaloun
9. 56 Hot Rod Charlie
10. 52 Mystic Guide

ANOTHER SNAZZY BEYER SPEED FIGURE

I wrote this last week: “I am looking for Knicks Go to seize the lead at once and set the early pace without being hooked. If that happens, I believe he has a good chance of running a Beyer in the ballpark of 108 to 113, as he did in the BC Dirt Mile, Pegasus World Cup and Cornhusker. That type of Beyer might well be sufficient for Knicks Go to win.”

It turned out that Knicks Go was hooked for a brief time early by Swiss Skydiver. But as noted earlier, Knicks Go did achieve separation from the pack on the first turn. He received a 111 Beyer Speed Figure for his Whitney victory.

Knicks Go now has registered the two highest Beyers so far this year. Below are the Beyers of 107 or higher this year to date at any distance on dirt, turf or synthetic:

Beyer Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

113 Knicks Go (1st, Cornhusker H., PrM, July 2)
111 Knicks Go (1st, Whitney, Sar, Aug. 7)
109 Mischevious Alex (1st, Carter H., Aqu, April 3)
109 Essential Quality (1st, Belmont S., Bel, June 5)
108 Knicks Go (1st, Pegasus World Cup, GP, Jan. 23)
108 Mystic Guide (1st, Razorback H., OP, Feb. 27)
108 Royal Ship (1st, Californian, SA, April 17)
108 Country Grammer (2nd, Californian, SA, April 17)
108 Hot Rod Charlie (2nd Belmont S., Bel, June 5)
107 Life Is Good (1st, San Felipe S., SA, March 6)

It says something about just what a terrific race Knicks Go ran to win the Whitney that the one of the vanquished, Silver State, was credited with a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure even though he lost by 6 1/4 lengths.

To add more gloss to Knicks Go’s robust Beyer Speed Figure for his victory last Saturday, the only two Beyers bigger than a 111 by a Whitney winner since Commentator’s huge 120 in 2008 was Honor Codes 113 in 2015 and Gun Runner’s 112 in 2017.

Below are the Beyers for the Whitney winners going back to 1990 (the figures prior to this year are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):

2021 Knicks Go (111)
2020 Improbable (106)
2019 McKinzie (111)
2018 Diversify (110)
2017 Gun Runner (112)
2016 Frosted (107)
2015 Honor Code (113)
2014 Moreno (109)
2013 Cross Traffic (108)
2012 Fort Larned (110)
2011 Tizway (111)
2010 Blame (111)
2009 Bullsbay (107)
2008 Commentator (120)
2007 Lawyer Ron (117)
2006 Invasor (113)
2005 Commentator (123)
2004 Roses in May (114)
2003 Medaglia d’Oro (114)
2002 Left Bank (121)
2001 Lido Palace (114)
2000 Lemon Drop Kid (118)
1999 Victory Gallop (116)
1998 Awesome Again (110)
1997 Will’s Way (126)
1996 Mahogany Hall (110)
1995 Unaccounted For (111)
1994 Colonial Affair (111)
1993 Brunswick (115)
1992 Sultry Song (112)
1991 In Excess (116)
1990 Criminal Type (115)

GRAVEYARD OF FAVORITES?

By sending out Essential Quality to win the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes on July 31 and Knicks Go to take the Grade I Whitney a week later, Cox figuratively thumbed his nose at Saratoga’s reputation for being the “graveyard of favorites.”

Essential Quality and Knicks Go both managed to avoid a high-profile defeat a la such luminaries as Man o’ War (who lost to the aptly named Upset), Gallant Fox (Jim Dandy), Secretariat (Onion) and American Pharoah (Keen Ice).

While Knicks Go will not race again at the current Saratoga meet, Essential Quality is scheduled to run in the Grade I, $1.25 millionTravers Stakes on Aug. 28.

SPEED, SPEED, SPEED IN LONGACRES MILE

The Grade III Longacres Mile, the richest and most prestigious race in the Pacific Northwest, will be presented at Emerald Downs this Sunday.

The Mile, as it is fondly referred to by Pacific Northwest racing enthusiasts, is steeped in history. It was run for the first time in 1933.

I picked Anothertwistafate to win the 2020 Mile. I figured that he would be a strong favorite, which he was, going off at odds of 6-5. But I felt confident that he would get the job done. Anothertwistafate did win the 2020 Mile with authority by 4 1/2 lengths.

As for this year’s Mile, I think the pace situation makes it very tricky to correctly forecast the winner. This is a race loaded with front-runners.

Anyportinastorm, assigned top weight of 123 pounds, heads the field of 11. In his most recent start, the 7-year-old Florida-bred son of City Zip finished fourth in the Oak Tree Sprint at Pleasanton, which was won by Law Abidin Citizen. Law Abidin Citizen captured the 2019 Longacres Mile.

I am not going with Anyportinastorm as my top pick. Below are my Longacres Mile selections:

1. Five Star General (5-2 morning-line favorite)
2. Anyportinastorm (3-1)
3. Papa’s Golden Boy (9-2)
4. Background (5-1)

Five Star General finished second in last year’s Mile. Papa’s Golden Boy set the pace and ended up fifth.

I was tempted to go with Papa’s Golden Boy as my top pick in this year’s Mile off his splendid 2021 form. Yes, he faltered in the stretch in this race last year. But I think he is much better this year.

Maybe Papa’s Golden Boy will be the speed of the speed this Sunday and lead all the way. I do respect him a lot. But I just couldn’t pull the trigger to put him on top when he has yet to prove he can win going this far.

Five Star General is my top pick because he certainly is not a question mark to get a mile. He goes into this year’s Mile off a sparkling 6 1/4-length victory in a 1 1/16-mile race at Hastings on July 13.

In Five Star General’s three starts at one mile, he’s won twice and, as noted earlier, finished second in the 2020 Mile.

A Mile entrant that should not be taken lightly is Background, who comes off a narrow loss when second on synthetic footing in Arlington Park’s Hanshin Stakes at one mile on June 26. He is switching to the dirt in the Mile. Background did win a pair of races on the dirt at Oaklawn Park earlier this year.

AN IMAGINARY SERIES: CHINOOK PASS VS. TURBULATOR

The day after this Sunday’s Longacres Mile is run will mark the 51st anniversary of Turbulator’s triumph in the 1970 Governor’s Handicap at Longacres when he broke the world record for 6 1/2 furlongs by two-fifths of a second.

Another outstanding Washington-bred, Chinook Pass, took the Governor’s Handicap in 1982.

Turbulator and Chinook Pass are, without question, two of the greatest Washington-breds of all time. They both are members of the Washington Racing Hall of Fame.

Like Turbulator, Chinook Pass was a world-record setter. In the case of Chinook Pass, he broke the world mark for five furlongs at Longacres in 1982.

Chinook Pass was the Washington-bred Horse of the Year in 1982 and 1983. Bud Klokstad trained Chinook Pass in 1982, then Laurie Anderson conditioned the Native Born gelding in 1983.

In 1983, Chinook Pass was voted an Eclipse Award as champion sprinter. Chinook Pass remains the only Washington-bred Eclipse Award winner.

As for Turbulator, the Cold Command gelding was the 1970 Washington-bred Horse of the Year when trained by Tom Crawford.

Here is a “what if” to consider. What if the two fantabulous Washington-breds Chinook Pass and Turbulator had raced against each other?

I pondered how it might -- I repeat, might -- have turned out if Chinook Pass and Turbulator had met in seven races at seven different distances ranging from five furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. I’m talking about “normal” races in the sense that these aren’t seven match races. If these were match races, Chinook Pass would win them all due to his blazing early zip as opposed to Turbulator’s running style of rallying from far off the pace. A front-runner typically has a big advantage in a match race.

Also, for the purpose of this exercise, Chinook Pass and Turbulator are both considered to be in their prime for the seven-race series.

This is how I think it would turn out in this hypothetical seven-race series featuring Chinook Pass and Turbulator:

5 FURLONGS. Deciding who wins this one is very easy. It’s Chinook Pass. As talented as Turbulator was, I don’t think there is any way he could catch Chinook Pass in a five-furlong race. As a 3-year-old in 1982, Chinook Pass won a five-furlong sprint at Longacres in a scorching :55 1/5, which at the time set a world record. All these years later, Chinook Pass’ :55 1/5 remains the fastest clocking ever posted in a five-furlong race on dirt. Chinook Pass also won the five-furlong Meteor Handicap by three emphatic lengths on the grass at Hollywood Park toward the end of 1982. Finishing second in the Meteor was the wonderful sprinter Dave’s Friend, who won 35 races $1,079,915 during his career.

5 1/2 FURLONGS. This one is pretty easy. Chinook Pass wins again. Chinook Pass was 4 for 4 and Turbulator was 0 for 3 in races at this distance. One of Turbulator’s losses at 5 1/2 furlongs came when he ran third in 1969 while making his career debut on June 7 in an allowance race at Coeur d’Alene, a little track in Idaho. That defeat is not part of Turbulator’s official record because, at that time, Coeur d’Alene was a so-called “bush track.” Races at Coeur d’Alene were not officially recognized by the Daily Racing Form until 1970. But I know that Turbulator did indeed run in that 1969 Coeur d’Alene race. How do I know that? I was there.

6 FURLONGS. Once again Chinook Pass wins. This still just isn’t a long enough race for Turbulator to catch Chinook Pass, who had the sheer speed and the class to become an Eclipse Award-winning sprinter.

6 1/2 FURLONGS. Turbulator wins this time. I give Turbulator the edge at this distance because he did break the world record for this distance by two-fifths of a second at Longacres in 1970.

ONE MILE. Turbulator wins. I don’t think Chinook Pass could beat Turbulator going this far. Chinook Pass won the 1983 Longacres Mile with a final time of 1:35 3/5 in what was the final race of his career. At that same track in 1970, I saw Turbulator jump over a fallen rider (Mark Jennings) approaching the clubhouse turn, then rally from 13 1/2 lengths off the pace to win a one-mile race in 1:34 4/5. He uncorked an electrifying final-quarter burst of speed in :23 1/5. Turbulator also smashed a one-mile track record by four-fifths of a second when he won the 1970 Yakima Mile at Yakima Meadows. Turbulator owned that track record for 23 years. Slew of Damascus, who finally broke that Yakima record of Turbulator’s in 1993, went on to win the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup at Hollywood Park in 1994.

1 1/16 MILES. No doubt about this one. Turbulator wins. Chinook Pass raced farther than one mile only once, losing by seven lengths when he finished second on a muddy track in the 1982 Puget Sound Handicap at Longacres. Two of Turbulator’s finest performances came in races at this distance. In the 1970 Washington Championship at Longacres, Turbulator packed 128 pounds, won with ridiculous ease by four lengths while under restraint late and shaved two-fifths of a second off a 16-year-old track record. In the 1972 Washington Championship, Turbulator faced a Chinook Pass-like speedster by the name of Grey Papa, who was coming off a win at Longacres in which he had set a world record for six furlongs. In the Washington Championship, Grey Papa sported a two-length lead at the eighth pole. Turbulator was fifth at that point, eight lengths behind Grey Papa. Turbulator zoomed home to win by a half-length in 1:41 2/5, which was just two-fifths off his own track mark.

1 1/8 MILES. This one is a no doubter. As talented as Chinook Pass was, I don’t think there is any way he could beat Turbulator going this long. Again, Chinook lost the only time he raced farther than one mile. Turbulator? He once won a two-mile race by three lengths despite carrying 128 pounds.

FINAL SCORE: Turbulator 4, Chinook Pass 3*

*Okay, I confess to being biased in that Turbulator is my all-time favorite horse.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Arlington - Race #7

#5 Naval Laughter	She made a pretty sharp first impression on the lawn last out when landing the Grade III prep for this race, and she should be in line for a perfect tracking trip. High upside filly can win on the rise again.
#4 Santa Barbara	She gets Lasix for this after a solid North American debut when landing the Belmont Oaks, and she's a threat while facing older horses here. Capable.
#6 Lemista	Maybe she's better while racing with Lasix for the first time here, and while she's a bit light on form, the Brown barn has been nearly unstoppable in this race over the years. Would be fitting to land this one.
Race Summary	Naval Laughter has a claim on this one after a sharp score last time out, and she might offer a fair price with a couple of sharp fillies signed on. I'm going to play against ML favorite Mean Mary in this one, but she's still a front-end threat despite maybe being a bit better going longer.

Arlington - Race #8

#6 Point Me By	I don't think you have to be that afraid of anyone in the mildest of Grade I spots, and this guy already owns a couple of the better races anyone in here has ever run. He still has some upside after just two starts, and a move forward in this second route start makes him very tough today.
#7 Shadizaar	Think he's a bit interesting at a price while coming back in this Grade I spot after scratching from the prep. He's kind of cheap, but he'll be a big price and can pass some tiring ones late to maybe land a piece of the gimmicks.
#2 Tango Tango Tango	He graduated in the local prep when adding blinkers and has now been solid in both lifetime turf starts, but I think he's overbet in this spot. He'd be no surprise, but he's not for me today.
Race Summary	Point Me By seems like a high-upside type after just two starts, and this aggressive placement might pay off in a renewal of this race that doesn't seem likely to be all that memorable.

Arlington - Race #9

#3 Domestic Spending	This guy is best older turf horse in the country right now, and trainer Chad Brown has made these races a major part of the barn's summer plans for several years. The barn won this race the last time it was run with Bricks and Mortar, and I expect they'll land this one at a short price, too.
#5 Zulu Alpha	Love the rider upgrade to Saez today, and he has been known to bounce back from dull efforts in the past. Second off the layoff brings out an improved performance at a much better price?
#9 Armory	Euro has been turning in decent efforts in small fields in recent starts, and there's a chance he'll take to this course while racing with Lasix for the first time.
Race Summary	Part of me is rooting for the perennial local leaders to land this with #8 Bizzee Channel, but this might be just a touch too deep for him. Domestic Spending is an incredible talent, and while he's not going to offer any kind of price, he'd be a fitting (likely) final winner of this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:34 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#2 HOMEY JOE	Steady late kick translates to victory under these conditions soon.
#4 BETTOR BE GOING	Gets class relief, ran big one from post 10 in prior try at this level.
#3 MAJOR HILL	Got past odds-on favorite to finish second from post 10 at notch below.
Race Summary	Homey Joe rallied for minor awards in 2 of his last 3 starts, but he did it through a :54.3 and :55.2 back half, earning a playback in the same spot. Play 2-3 and 2-4 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4

#1 BETTER BE DONNA N	Deep field, right set up to pick up 25th win.
#5 LYONS TILT HANOVER	Rallied through a :54.4 back half to just miss in 3-peat try.
#3 SCARLETT HANOVER	3yo led at every call but one in her last three starts.
Race Summary	Better B Donna N paced evenly in a fast race at this level, but the classy 7-year-old (24 wins, $332k) draws the rail and gets plenty of pace to rally into tonight. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

Northfield Park - Race #3

#2 HUSTLENOMICS	Trotter was used up from outside post, projects ideal trip in here.
#5 THE MIGHTY HILL	Two wins and a second from post 9 when he stayed flat.
#6 ROSE RUN XTRA	Hit board in all six starts this year but has yet to win.
Race Summary	Hustlenomics sustained a first-over rally to defeat ultra-consistent Rose Run Extra two starts back, then fell victim to a rough trip last out. He was caught 4-wide early and worked hard to make the lead from post 9, ultimately tiring in the fastest division of a split race. He draws favorably and offers enough value to make him today's Best Bet..

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 05:34 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #8

#1 Neige Blanche	Hard not to like the G3 Santa Barbara winner, and she's been completive in other races as well (3rd in G1 Belmont Oaks and was a closing fourth in the D1 Del Mar Oaks). Build for the distance and Hernandez is a good fit aboard for Leonard Powell.
#4 Tapwater	She set the pace and was third in the Santa Barbara and was a closing third in the Osunitas Stakes; gets more distance and can be a factor at this level.
#5 Rideforthecause	Lost by a nose in the Santa Barbara and came out of that to win the Possibly Perfect Stakes over this course; clearly a contender.
Race Summary	Neige Blanche rates the slightest of edges in a highly contentious CTT and TOC Stakes; she's a good router and it will take an outstanding effort to beat her.

Del Mar - Race #9

#4 I'll Stand Taller	Hung late and settled for second going 6.5 furlongs last out and can benefit from the shorter distance here; O'Neill due to get rolling and has a good chance to start something here.
#3 Letsgetlucky	Set the pace in stakes races in two of his last three and was second the last time he was at a similar level; very quick and the one to catch.
#1 Catemaco	Was a winner in his debut and didn't break on the turf in his latest; can get a good inside run here and likely will show a lot of improvement.
Race Summary	I'll Stand Taller had a brief lead and was caught late last time and can prevail with a well-timed move in this one.

Del Mar - Race #10

#10 Isn't She Lovely	Set the pace and just missed in a fast race last time and can get a good run outside in this one; has the class and connections to prevail.
#1 Nu Pi Lambda	Has shown late interest in his last two and can benefit from an inside run; likely to be a strong player on the tail end of it.
#2 Anna Fantastic	Ran on late and finished fourth, beaten less than two lengths; likely to get a better start here and can be a solid stretch threat.
Race Summary	Isn't She Lovely has been good in her last two races and has the speed to overcome the post; should be very tough at five furlongs.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 08:53 AM

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER"

ENGLAND - CHAMPIONSHIP- (UNDER 2.5 -110) LUTON TOWN vs. WEST BROM (10:00 AM)
CROATIA-1. HNL- (UNDER 2.5 -102) ISTRA 1961 vs. NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB (12:55 PM)
ENGLAND - PREMIER LEAGUE- (OVER 2.5 -101) WOLVERHAMPTON vs. LEICESTER CITY (10:00 AM)
BELGIUM - PRO LEAGUE- (OVER 2.5 -117) KV KORTRIJK vs. R.UNION SAINT-GILLOISE (10:15 AM)
ENGLAND - LEAGUE TWO- (OVER 2.5 -199) OLDHAM ATHLETIC vs. BRADFORD (10:00 AM)
BELARUS - VYSSHAYA LEAGUE- (OVER 2.5 -103) SLUTSK vs. TORPEDO BELAZ (10:30 AM)
SPAIN- SEGUNDA DIVISION- (OVER 2 -119) AMOREBIETA vs. GIRONA (1:30 PM)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 08:59 AM

PITBULL BARKING NFL

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:01 am
BEARS (CHI) -3.5 -105 DOLPHINS (MIA) (1:00 PM)
JAGUARS (JAX) -2.5 -110 BROWNS (CLE) (7:00 PM)
BENGALS (CIN) +6 -103 BUCCANEERS (TB) (7:30 PM)
CHIEFS (KC) vs. 49ERS (SF) OVER 38.5 -105 (8:30 PM)
RAMS (LAR) +3.5 -110 CHARGERS (LAC) (10:00 PM)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 09:07 AM

Today's plays from PREFERRED PLAYER GROUP 8/14/2021

PPG Consensus Group Boston Red Sox ML $1,000,000.00
Lockmasters Padres/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 $500,000.00
Jason Mitchell Sports Houston Astros ML $500,000.00
Cincinnati Winners Nationals/Braves Under 9 $500,000.00
Parlay King 2 Team ML Parlay - Red Sox, Astros $200,000.00
Handicapping Marketer VIP PLAY: Boston Red Sox RL $10,000.00

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2021, 10:10 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 10:56
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEARS OLD, BY SIRES THAT THE BREEDING WAS SOLD THROUGH THE 2019 QHRAI STALLIONS SERVICES AUCTION AND HAVE PAID ALL FEES TO REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT: 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ZACK JAMES: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed R ating. ALL STAR BEACH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
2	ZACK JAMES	1/1	5/2
8	LEXUS BEACH	6/1	8/1
7	ALL STAR BEACH	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HONEY B	1	20/1	Average	65	46	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	ZACK JAMES	2	1/1	Fast	79	77	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	JETTIN TO MIDNIGHT	4	15/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	CRANSTON	5	30/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	KENOMA	6	4/1	Average	66	65	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	ALL STAR BEACH	7	6/1	Fast	73	62	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	LEXUS BEACH	8	6/1	Average	71	68	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	COUNT DOWN	9	8/1	Average	70	56	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: HABITS LITTLE LADY (30/1) [Jockey: Beltran Jose A - Trainer: Candia Jose].