Tuesday 8/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 06:47 AM

Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 8/17/21

August 17, 2021
From the Week Concluding August 15, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper and analyst

1 - After Bolshoi Ballet flopped in the Saratoga Invitational Derby-G1 Aug. 7, winding up a no-excuse fourth at even money behind fellow Irish shipper, the 21-1 long shot State of Rest, the plausible explanation was that he had “Euro-bounced” after being so impressive in his previous cross-Atlantic foray when winning the Belmont Derby-G1 in early June. Had Bolshoi Ballet done what was expected and win again, there would have been fewer doubters that Santa Barbara, for the same connections, would be able to repeat her thoroughly dominating victory in her U.S. debut, the Belmont Oaks Invitational-G1, when she returned for the Beverly D. S.-G1 at Arlington Park on Saturday. Didn’t happen. Inside the furlong pole, Santa Barbara roared past Mean Mary (who had her chances greatly compromised after breaking through the gate prior to the start) to win as impressively as she had done at Belmont Park. The 3-year-old daughter of Camelot seems highly-likely to return to the States for a third time to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar.

Last week we opined that the late-developing War Like Goddess had become the best long distance North American based turf filly following her visually stunning victory in the Glens Falls S.-G2 at Saratoga. We’ll stick with that because the younger Santa Barbara technically isn’t North American based – she does her training at Aidan O’Brien’s yard in Ireland – but in a division that is often far less glamorous that some of the others, this impeding collision between these two exceptional fillies is something to really look forward to.

2 - What was Got Stormy doing in the Grade-1 Fourstardave Handicap, anyway? Yeah, she won it two years ago, but wasn’t she far past her prime, having finished off the board in three of her last four starts, with a low-rated Grade-3 victory against moderate fillies and mares sandwiched in between? Isn’t she better sprinting? That’s what we thought. That’s what many of the serious bettors believed, who let her go at 12-1. Glad to be wrong (preferred the runner-up Set Piece, who flew home but too late, I’ll live with it). Her winning 103 Beyer speed figure equaled the number she earned when second to Halladay in this race last year, so we can safely assume that the now 6-year-old mare, a winner of 12 races from 30 career starts while consistently facing the best males and females North America, really hasn’t lost too many steps after all, and that’s a credit to the newly enshrined Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who’s had her for all but her first two races.

She’ll face the boys again in the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 at Del Mar (she won the Matriarch S.-G1 there in 2019) but before that probably have a prep, maybe sprinting next month at Kentucky Downs. We’ll probably wind up trying to beat her again on Championship day in November but a big part of us will rooting for her, nonetheless.

3 - We don’t second guess the Southern California stewards very often. Actually, we almost always agree with their decisions. Not so with their ruling to disqualify Next Revolt from first to fourth in the Thursday fifth race at Del Mar. Under Flavian Prat, the gelding came over a half lane – okay, perhaps a bit more - entering the stretch on the already faltering Invictatatus, forcing that one to check and briefly steady. Invictatatus was never, ever, ever going to win or finish second (he wound up being beaten 10 lengths), but a case could be made that he may have been able to salvage third money, even though the incident happened more than a furlong before the wire. Next Revolt’s owners (that’s who I identify with) lost a winner’s purse of $16,800 while the handicappers (not me) who correctly tabbed the original first place finisher at 9/2 got nothing, not to mention the bettors who played the race correctly in rolling exotics and got knocked out, too.

Yes, Prat was careless, give him days (they did), but horse players should be part of the equation, too – and we’re not referring to the ones that got kissed in, but those who played the race properly and deserved to be rewarded. In these situations, you have to have your priorities in order. In adjudicating an inquiry or a foul claim, and it’s a close call, shouldn’t the judges consider who would be wronged the most? In this case, would it be the owner of the much-the-best original winner and those that correctly played him? Or the owner of the badly beaten “fouled” horse who lost $1,680 (the difference in purse money from third to fourth) and the show bettors who got $2.80 after their horse got moved up?

4 – The Weekly Wash from Saratoga: Sunday’s first race winner Silipo, a 2-year-old by Candy Ride making his debut for a $40,000 tag, did what was required in registering a more than three length win in a modest 1:06.13 and was claimed by Bruce Brown. In watching the gelding’s action, the old L.A. Ram split end Crazy Legs Hirsch suddenly popped into my mind. Wisconsin Badger fans are aware that Crazy Legs has been rated the 94th best player in NFL history by The Athletic. . .Street Vendor rallied from eighth to second into the teeth of slow splits in the Sunday second when debuting going long on the turf for Todd Pletcher. The Nyquist colt brought $500,000 as a yearling. He’s not worth it just yet. Soon, maybe. . .Really believed hot recent maiden winner Ducale would come right back on the raise in the Saturday eighth but the Twirling Candy colt flipped in the paddock and had to be scratched. If he’d run, it’s highly unlikely he would have challenged Speaker’s Corner. In his first start since beating Caddo River in a 2-year-old maiden race last October, the Street Sense colt returned better than he left for trainer Bill Mott, winning by more than five lengths in 1:22.29, which translates to a 101 Beyer Speed figure. He may be the late developing 3-year-old star we’ve been waiting for all summer.

Most of the time it's better to believe what you see, not what you read. Grade-1 winner Simply Ravishing, beaten more than 19 lengths as the favorite in the Ashland S.-G1 at Keeneland in her sophomore debut, returned in the Thursday third, the Saratoga Dew Handicap. The assistant trainer was quoted in the DRF about how ready she was, how terrific she had trained. We went to the xbtv.com website to watch one of her recent works. She looked awful. Dead on the board and not even favored, she wound up last of five, beaten 23 lengths, by Dancing Kiki. . .Two-year-old maidens who win at six furlongs on this track and go faster than 1:11 have done something noteworthy. Key Point, a New York-bred son of Into Mischief, ran 1:10.89 as a debut winner in the Thursday fifth, but didn’t really figure out what was required of him until the final sixteenth, at the which time he apparently realized the fastest way from point A to point B is a straight line. Yeah, we like his chances in state bred stakes, but his connections may have larger goals in mind.

5 – The Weekly Wash from Del Mar: The Steve Miyadi-trained Saul’s Call looked like he was worth the money when he blew out a juvenile maiden $50,000 field by more than six lengths on Sunday. At least one trainer thought so, but the claim was voided by the state veterinarian. Sometimes, it works the other way. Later that same day in the fourth race, Big Well was claimed for $20,000 but finished last. That claim was voided, too. . .Does anybody in California do better with European imports than trainer Phil D’Amato? Keep in mind that these aren’t proven stakes winners he’s getting, more like modest handicappers. His 2-year-old filly Helen’s Well had a prior run earlier this year at some track called Rosscommon in Ireland (she finished fourth), made her U.S. debut in the Saturday fifth, and after walking out of the gate rallied with purpose to score as miles best like a filly who’ll certainly return in stakes company next time out.

While we’re on the subject of juvenile fillies running long on the lawn, you can never be sure what you’ll see in a maiden California-bred event. Most of the time you won’t see much. Not so in the Thursday fourth race when Dendera and Eleuthera left the others far behind, with the latter particularly impressive in her second place finish in her debut for trainer Ben Cecil. The Square Eddie filly was given far too much to do in a poorly timed ride but finished full of run to be a distant second while preserving her maiden status that will provide additional experience next time, assuming, of course, they run her back vs. maidens. She’s owned by Paul Reddam. . .Claim of the week was made by Ryan Hanson, who took English-bred gelding Barristan The Bold on the big class drop for $32,000 from Friday’s second race. Finished third, should have galloped.
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From the Week concluding August 8, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper and analyst

1 - Some horses have a knack for winning photo finishes. When the result of a race remains in doubt approaching the shadow of the wire, they somehow manage to reach back for reserve energy that only the good ones can find, as opposed to a lesser horse that might simply buckle under pressure. I can relate to the latter; I ran track in high school and my coach told me I was the human equivalent of a maiden claimer. I said, “state bred or open?”

Trainers often romanticize that top horses “know” where the wire is. Maybe they do know, but if so then they’re smarter than some jocks, who I’ve seen stand up at the sixteenth pole. We’ve all witnessed horses that hit the front and then appear to pull themselves up or lose focus and begin to coast, making the margin of victory much closer than it should have been.

Then there’s Knicks Go. He’s apparently not interested in posing for any stinking photos. He wants to blow you out.
The victory by the Brad Cox-trained horse in the Whitney S.-G1 at the Spa on Saturday was thoroughly predictable – the best horse with the easiest trip usually wins – as was his margin of domination, which in his case always has been of blowout proportions. The son of Paynter now has won eight races during his career with the following margins of victory beginning with his most recent: 4 1/2; 10 1/4; 2 3/4; 3 1/2; 10 1/4; 7 1/2; 3 1/2; and 5 1/2.

One other thing about Knick’s Go. He’s never won a race in which he didn’t lead wire-to-wire. We’re not really sure if any older horse currently in training can defeat him even if able to get in front of him early, but we do believe this: Knick’s Go will continue to win if he’s on the lead from the start. And it won’t be in a photo.

2 - Trainer Rudy Rodriguez said he was “pleasantly surprised” at the manner in which Bella Sofia dismantled a superior field of 3-year-old fillies in the 7F Test S.-G1 at Saratoga on Saturday. The bargain basement $20,000 OBS 2020 summer sale purchase registered a career top 101 Beyer speed figure in the four and one-half length victory while improving her record to three wins in four starts. In doing so, she became a legitimate candidate for year-end Eclipse Award consideration in the 3-year-old filly division and/or the filly and mare sprint category, though there is still much work to be done.
But if Rudy had read this column last month he wouldn’t have been “surprised.” We certainly weren’t. Here’s what we wrote in this space following her allowance win at Belmont Park on July 11:

“As impressive as any performance witnessed during the past week was the runaway romp by Bella Sofia in a first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-old fillies Sunday at Belmont Park. The margin of victory (six and one-half lengths) and the manner in which the win was accomplished (she easily disposed of a pace rival and then drew off with a ton left) surely stamps the daughter of Awesome Patriot as a legitimate threat to repeat on the raise when facing graded stakes company at Saratoga.

Bella Sofia will get some time off to recover from what had to be a physically taxing, exhausting effort and probably won’t return until the fall. With her stalking/prompting style and the ability to re-break at the head of the lane, she has the perfect set of skills for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, which like the Test S., is run at seven furlongs.

3 - Maybe it’s not the most glamorous in thoroughbred racing but the long distance filly and turf division in North America has a new star, and shockingly she’s not from Europe and not trained by Chad Brown. Her name is War Like Goddess, purchased for $30,000 as a yearling at Keeneland and trained by Bill Mott. If you didn’t see her victory in the Glens Falls S.-G3 at Saratoga on Saturday, take the time watch what was a much more impressive than raw running lines would lead you to believe. Victorious now in five of six career starts, the daughter of English Channel came against slow fractions while being forced to rally widest of all yet was relentless through the lane, quickly and easily swallowing up her rivals with a turn off foot had to shade 23 seconds for the final quarter mile of the 12-furlong marathon trip.
She didn’t bring much at auction, because as successful of a sire as English Channel has been, his progeny are generally late developers, are pretty much grass only, and tend to be on the smaller side. I’ve never owned one, but I’d love to. When does that Keeneland catalogue come out, anyway?

The Europeans don’t always send their best for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – they’ve never really had to – but I’m not sure they have the luxury of bringing a second stringer this year. War Like Goddess earned a career top Beyer number of 99 in the Glens Falls, but even if accurate that only tells us what she did. It doesn’t tell us what she’s capable of.

4 – Her World was supposed to debut in a maiden grass sprint for juvenile fillies at Saratoga July 29, but the race got washed off the turf, so trainer Wesley Ward, not willing to wait any longer to unleash his latest keg of dynamite, vanned her down to Monmouth Park for the Tyro Stakes over five furlongs on turf against the boys, who as it turned, clearly had no chance after the opening 20 yards of the race had unfolded. The Irish-bred daughter, from the first crop of the brilliant young Scat Daddy stallion and Irish champion Caravaggio, simply ran her rivals off their feet enroute to a six length score in :56.62. A compact filly blessed with extremely quick action and athleticism, she was a $400,000 Keeneland yearling purchase that apparently was originally – and prophetically – called Rocket Woman. Both names remain registered to her dam’s 2019 foal, according to The Jockey Club registry.

Can’t say yet that she’s this year’s Golden Pal but the Ward barn has to be thinking Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint on the first weekend in November at Del Mar, where the short stretch provides the speed types with a major advantage.

5 – On Labor Day weekend, Friday, Aug. 31, 2001 (three weeks shy of exactly 20 years as of this writing), I was in a hotel room in Birmingham, Alabama, having just flown in on the UCLA football team Delta Airlines charter for their opening game the following day in Tuscaloosa against Alabama. I was nervous, not about the game as I knew we’d beat them (and we did), but rather about the afternoon’s Spinaway S.-G1 at Saratoga. Team Valor’s filly Cashier’s Dream was supposed to win – she would go off at 30 cents on the dollar - but when you’re facing the bluebloods with a Michigan-bred, you don’t have the luxury of being overconfident.
Barry (Irwin) and I had purchased her for our stable earlier that summer after her first two outings, both wins, in a maiden $50,000 claimer and an allowance race at Churchill Downs. At the time it seemed like we had more trainers than horses, but when we discussed who we should transfer her to, we decided to add a new one to the roster. “What about Steve Asmussen?” Barry asked. “Well, his brother (Cash) once rode a winner for us, so there’s that. Actually, I like him a lot,” I said of the young trainer who had saddled his first Grade-1 winner only two years before. I think he’s on his way to becoming somebody.”

Cashier’s Dream won the Spinaway by a pole, and despite having her career tragically cut short due to illness, remains one of the best fillies we’ve ever owned. He didn’t train many for us, but Steve was one of the best horseman we ever employed, and though he had an early reputation of being difficult to deal with, that never was the case with us. Over the weekend he became the winningest trainer in North American thoroughbred history at 9,445 when he saddled Stellar Tap to a runaway debut maiden win at the Spa. With a little luck, he’ll reach 10,000 by the end of next year. Congrats!
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 06:49 AM

Monday Myths: Is It More Difficult for a Sprinter to Hold Form?

August 16, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

It’s harder for sprinters to maintain their form than route runners.

Background:

The rigorous, all-out nature of sprint races leads many horseplayers to believe that it’s more difficult for these horses to maintain their best form. Sprint fields also are less spread-out typically than routes, giving more opportunity for bad racing luck. Additionally, sprints tend to have larger field sizes than routes on dirt. All those logical points add up to the assumption, but do the numbers agree?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all race winners over the past 5 years (August 16, 2016) to see which ones were more likely to return with top finishes. I looked only at horses returning for the same class level (claiming-claiming, allowance-allowance, stakes-stakes) so that a class riser would not be penalized for the more difficult return test. Sprint distances on dirt were considered at 7 furlongs or less. Sprint distances on turf were considered at 6-1/2 furlongs or less to maintain 1-turn similarity. The route comparables were for 1-1/16 miles or farther in distance due to several tracks offering 1-turn miles.

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Dirt sprint claimers who won last out returned to win 18.86% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.
Dirt route claimers who won last out returned to win 19.67% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Dirt sprint allowance runners who won last out returned to win 22.00% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Dirt route allowance runners who won last out returned to win 19.81% with a $0.68 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Dirt sprint stakes runners who won last out returned to win 27.49% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Dirt route stakes runners who won last out returned to win 21.66% with a $0.67 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Turf sprint claimers who won last out returned to win 21.61% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Turf route claimers who won last out returned to win 18.28% with a $0.88 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Turf sprint allowance runners who won last out returned to win 20.35% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Turf route allowance runners who won last out returned to win 17.93% with a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Turf sprint stakes runners who won last out returned to win 23.08% with a $0.69 ROI for every $1 bet.
Turf route stakes runners who won last out returned to win 20.35% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:

On dirt, returning sprint winners outperformed routers only at the lowest level (claiming). As the quality or runners increased, dirt sprinters repeated victories at a higher rate than dirt routers. At each class level, turf sprinters returned to win more often than turf routers, by nearly a 3% margin in each case.

Bottom line:

Unless you’re looking at dirt claimers, the assumption that it’s tougher for a sprinter than a router to hold his or her form and repeat is factually false. Of the six categories of runners by class and surface, five of the studies showed sprinters to be more likely to repeat victories than routers. The most successful categories for a repeat on either surface were at the stakes level.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which trainers fare best trying to bring back a winner and repeat … or which tracks are you more likely to see return winners hold their form. Last-out winners score 16.3% at Saratoga, while they win 14.8% at Del Mar – and just under 20% at Finger Lakes.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 06:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#2 Society Boy	Tough to split the two drawn furthest inside, but this guy has a bit of an early pace edge on the rail runner and can stay on better than he did when fading last out.
#1 Spankhurst	He took a nice step forward off the bench last time out and has some upside while making his second start off the layoff. Tough with a step forward of any kind.
#5 Punx	Debuter looks logical for a piece in a race that doesn't seem to have much depth outside of the top pair. Won't have to be a star to land a piece.
Race Summary	Society Boy has solid pace and may be able to find the front without too much trouble in this spot, giving him the edge over the capable Spankhurst.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#7 Del Griffith	He gets some class relief after a pair of stakes tries, and while he still has some proving to do on synthetic footing, this easier bunch may allow him to find that better form.
#8 American Union	His local debut produced an impressive maiden win, and he's quick enough to land a really good pressing trip with this group. Probably the one to beat.
#1 The Sinner Is You	He cuts back for this one and has done some decent work here in the past. Think he'll get overlooked on the board, but he might be able to land a piece.
Race Summary	Del Griffith faded in the local debut, but he is in a much easier spot while trying winners outside of stakes company for the first time.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#2 Stevis Man	He can be an all-or-nothing type, but he is an 18-time local winner with some sharp pace while getting back on synthetic footing. There isn't a ton of other pace signed on in here, so he might be good for a thrill on the engine.
#4 Smoky Blues	Versatile type is quick enough to keep up with the top choice in the early stages, but he also has a mild rating gear that might allow him to get the perfect, first-over trip.
#5 Perfectly Majestic	Cutback player ran well enough around one turn at Arlington back in May, but he still seems a bit better going longer at this point in time. Might be overbet?
Race Summary	Stevis Man figures to have a go for it out of the gate, and he has a right to be dangerous at a square price here if he isn't hassled too hard in the opening quarter.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 06:56 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #4

#5 DEL DIGGITY	Slowed by pace, second as odds-on favorite in repeat attempt.
#6 INDUSTRIAL HEMP	Dueled to stretch with winning fave, brings road show to town.
#1 JK'S JENNA	First or second in 5 of 11 starts this year, starts fresh from the rail.
Race Summary	Del Diggity chased the winner as the pace slowed in a :30 second quarter and couldn't reach despite some late gain. He finished ahead of several rivals he meets today. Play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #3

#2 PLAY THE FIELD	Disappointed in latest, can't be discounted off prior try for this barn.
#7 JUST WAVE GOODBYE	Finished a distant second behind 2-to-5 runaway.
#3 RUTHLESS DUDE	Remains hot at claim box, could sit pocket trip.
Race Summary	Play The Field can play the lead role off the re-claim with an inner post draw. He won handily for these connections last month. Play 2/3,7/ALL trifecta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#5 SEA LAIRD	Plays to a steady beat, projects ideal trip, good value play.
#1 STATE OF PLAY	Won three straight from post 7 outward at $12.80 average mutuel.
#8 JULERICA	Seeks fourth win in a row and 41st in his career, claimed in four straight.
Race Summary	Sea Laird rallied for three seconds in a row at this level and gets ample pace flow to upgrade to a win despite missing a week. He can top $100,000 in earnings if he wins. Play a 5-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 06:57 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#5 Peekacho	Was second two back and was claimed, and then was outrun in a stakes race here; 14-time winner has taken a couple turf races and fits well with these.
#6 Mutakatif	Ran in the G2 Wise Dan two back at Churchill and followed with a fifth race Mountaineer; has been in tough spots and clearly is a contender here.
#1 Quality Step	Was third at Delaware in his latest and has had a good year with three consecutive wins in starter handicaps at Tampa Bay. Dangerous closer.
Race Summary	Peekacho will be a decent price and can get a favorable pace setup for a big late run.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#6 Max Express	Was second in four of five turf races and has the closing move to get it done here; can improve off his latest.
#9 Majestic Ro	Has the speed to dictate how this develops and will be tough with a moderate pace.
#11 Uncapped	Was third twice and second once in her last three, which were at Ellis and Churchill, and he's been a tough claimer.
Race Summary	Max Express has been close on grass and has finished with interest; due for things to go in his favor.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#4 Rock N June Bug	Held on for third last time out and has been in decent races; can be a force on the front end. Winless in one turf attempt but that could change today.
#2 Floroplus	Won four straight and then just missed last time out; was claimed by the Ginter stable and likely will run another big one.
#9 Rolin With Olin	Faltered late late time but is a regular at five furlongs and usually mixes it up.
Race Summary	Rock N June Bug has excellent speed and that should translate into a good turf sprint performance; capable of running with these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:21 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Oakland/Chicago Wsox Over 9 Runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:31 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: BALTIMORE/TAMPA BAY OVER the total of 8½ runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:32 AM

Totals4U

Tuesday's Free Selection: Toronto Blue Jays/Washington Nationals under 9 1/2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:34 AM

#1 Sports

Tuesday's Free Play: Baltimore Orioles + 180

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:36 AM

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: Toronto/Washington Game OVER 9½ Runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:37 AM

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Tuesday : Take ATLANTA/MIAMI UNDER the total of 8 runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:37 AM

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Tuesday
Toronto Manoah -190

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:38 AM

Hawkeye Sports

Tuesday's Free Pick: Houston Astros - 185

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2021, 08:38 AM

Huddle Up Sports

Tuesday Free Play
San Francisco Webb -150

Tuesday 8/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 8/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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