Thursday 8/19/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 06:39 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Thursday, August 19, 2021

August 19, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Rev Rita; 6-Esagerare; 7-For Love Not Money

Forecast: Rev Rita chased a much tougher field in her debut, has returned to work quite well over this main track, and seems set to produce a significant forward move in this high-priced maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. The pace flow projects to be quite soft, so we’re expecting this daughter of Orb to be forwardly placed, maybe even on the lead. For Love Not Money is another that takes the all-important class drop for maiden to maiden claiming and picks up F. Prat, so on those two angles alone she’s a major player. We’re expecting to see her in a comfortable stalking position outside with every chance to produce a winning late kick. Esagerare has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and ran well going short two races back while earning a speed figure that puts her right there. She’s much better than her last race shows, retains K. Desormeaux, and projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Trouble N Paradise; 6-Island Life

Forecast: Island Life was more than four lengths clear of the rest when displaying good speed but weakening late to finish second in a tougher $10,000 claiming sprint and today drops to the bottom and should be capable of taking this field gate to wire. The J. Wong barn, which seems to win everything north, hasn’t gotten untracked at this meeting (just 1-for-26) but looks to have found a proper spot for this lightly-raced daughter of Ministers Wild Cat. Bay area shipper Trouble N Paradise could be the most dangerous closer. She’s a first-off-the-claim for T. McCanna (powerful with this angle), competitive at this level on speed figures, and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug rider J. Espinoza.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-A G Indy; 6-Deise Delight

Forecast: Trainer D. O’Neill has two major players in this starter’s allowance five furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares and both have winning credentials. A G Indy earned a career top speed figure when second sprinting on grass last February but then was stopped on. She has a good stalking style, a solid work tab at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her fit and ready, and projects to settle in the second flight and then have her chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Stable mate Deise Delight backs up to a sprint, adds blinkers, and projects to enjoy a good pace stalking/prompting trip. She retains F. Prat and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to A G Indy.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bombs At Cocal; 8-You’re My Boy Kat

Forecast: Bombs At Cocal flashed speed before weakening late when facing considerably tougher straight maiden foes in his debut earlier this month. Bred to run long and stretching out from a good inside draw, the P. Miller-trained colt make try gate-to-wire tactics, and if he can clear without pressure he could wire this maiden $50,000 claiming field of juveniles. The pedigree okay’s two turns and two local breezes since raced indicate he’s doing well. You’re My Boy Kat is wheeled back on short rest (six days) after finishing second at even money while five lengths clear of the rest in a maiden $32,000 abbreviated sprint, and though he’s moving up in class and stretching out, the son of Take of Ekati should have every opportunity to make amends. The pedigree suggests he’ll handle the extra distance just fine, and with rising speed figures and the likelihood of another forward move the D. O’Neill-trained gelding seems likely to go favored again.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Brittle and Yoo; 5-Prance; 7-Bestrella; 10-Basilia

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) grass grab bag for $32,000 claiming fillies and mares requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. Brittle and Yoo was a tad unlucky when fourth beaten two lengths in a similar affair here last month and today returns for new trainer V. Cerin (superior stats with the first-off-the-claim angle) while being re-equipped with blinkers and switching to the one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, J. J. Hernandez. The concern - and it’s a legitimate one – is that she’s failed the last five times she’s been favored, though in this affair she’ll probably leave pretty close to her morning line of 4-1. Basilia gets the worst of the draw but is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, exits a tougher race, and likely will receive the patient ride she needs. If she can navigate a decent trip, she’ll be right there. Prance was beaten a nose in the same race our top pick exits while earning a career top speed figure and once again will be doing her best work from off the pace. With a decent pace up front and good racing luck, she’ll be in the fray. Bestrella shows up in a claimer for the first time in her first outing in 10 weeks and should greatly appreciate the class drop. She’s a one-paced grinding type but has speed figures that makes her dangerous. These are the four we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, but you can go deeper if you feel the need.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Eddie’s New Dream; 5-Ten the Smart Way; 8-Secret Square;

Forecast: Eddie’s New Dream stretches out again and returns to the state-bred entry level allowance ranks after finishing fifth with a rough trip in the Fleet Treat S. last month. She ran well routing two runs back when a solid second in the Melair S., so given today conditions the daughter of Square Eddie is the likely choice and one to beat. However, based on speed figures, she doesn’t have any significant edge on the others, so we wouldn’t take a short price. Secret Square made a monumental trainer switch to K. Mulhall, dropped to the bottom, and won an $8,000 claimer by 10 lengths while improving the Beyer speed figure from her previous start by 33 points. In fact, the 90 Beyer number she achieved would be competitive with stakes performers on this circuit. In that runaway score, she displayed good early speed to force the pace and then ran her cheap rivals into the ground in a very impressive performance. We’ll see if she can do the same today while being forced to deal with more early speed. We’ll also toss in Ten the Smart Way, bred to run long and stretching out for the first time. The A. Mathis barn has excellent stats with the sprint-to-route angle, and this lightly raced (just four starts) daughter of Smart Bid has encountered early trouble in each of her last two starts that compromised her chances. If she can make the lead, she could get brave.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Ward ‘n Jerry; 4-Margot’s Boy; 8-Seven Charms

Forecast: Ward ‘n Jerry wasn’t quite up to beating stakes foes in his last pair of marathons but this return to the optional claiming ranks could get the veteran stayer back on the winning track. Reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and twice successful over the local lawn, the veteran gelding always gives his best and should enjoy a comfortable second flight trip and then have dead aim when the pressure gets turned on. Seven Charms is lightly-raced, improving with each start, and fresh from a first-level allowance score over this course and distance last month that produced a career top speed figure. He’ll need another forward move to extend his winning streak to three, but the son of Cairo Prince, originally $350,000 yearling purchase, gives every indication that further improvement is likely. Margot’s Boy was beaten a head in the Del Mar Derby-G2 last year, so we know he likes the course; the question, though, is how he will handle today’s three-turn journey. The Clubhouse Ride gelding should be prominent throughout – maybe even on the lead – and based on his middle distance numbers he shouldn’t at all out of his element. At 15-1 on the morning line, you have to use him.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Hot Pursuit; 3-Perfecto Amor; 7-Tiz Vicious

Forecast: Tiz Vicious, away since February, returns in a soft bottom-rung maiden claimer with back numbers that are good enough to beat this field. The P. Miller barn has solid stats with layoff runners, so with blinkers going back on and with a healthy recent series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit, the son of Violence looks ready to graduate at 9/5 on the morning line. There are two other contenders consider, at least as savers or backups. Hot Pursuit, a $20,000 R. Ellis claim earlier this month, makes just his fifth career start and could improve enough for his new connections to make a serious run for it. His speed figures have risen with each outing and with a break in the weights he could easily continue his upward mobility at 8-1 on the morning line. Perfecto Amor plummets to the bottom, has numbers that are better than par for this level and switches to F. Prat. His one main track outing was poor, so his grass form, which isn’t too bad, may not be applicable in this dirt affair. You can toss him in as a saver but he’s probably not worth much more than that.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 07:13 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Thursday, August 19, 2021

August 19, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-True Castle; 2-Anna’s First

Forecast: Anna’s Fast handled True Castle the last two times they met and should be capable of continuing her dominance over her chief rival in this $40,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. The R. Atras-trained daughter of Fast Anna was overmatched and faded when tackling tougher over a sloppy track here last month but if she can catch a dry surface today she should be able to get back on track. Johnny V. knows her well and stays aboard. True Castle, first or second in 12 of 21 career starts, should be primed for another big effort and projects to be forwardly placed throughout from her inside draw. She doesn’t need the lead to win, in fact, she might be most comfortable when stalking and pouncing so I. Ortiz, Jr. has that option. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Anna’s First.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pipito; 4-Osbourne; 7-Big Scully

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint is restricted to juveniles that brought $45,000 or less in their most recent auction. Big Scully has the benefit of a prior outing and not a bad one at that, finishing third of nine while more than four lengths clear of the rest in a similar event here last month that earned an okay speed figure. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Cross Traffic will be hard to beat unless there is a better than average first-timer among the others. Pipito was bought back for $95,000 as yearling at Keeneland but most recently went through the ring for only $17,000 in the OBS April sale, hence his eligibility for this affair. The Mastery gelding was a bit green in his preview, was on his wrong lead, and breezed in 10 2/5 seconds, just an average time for that venue over the all-weather surface. That said, he didn’t look half bad while displaying a long, athletic stride and the feeling is that he can run enough to act with these. Of course, from the rail, he’d be advised to break with his field. Osbourne, a $9,500 RNA as a yearling, arrives from Ellis Park where he worked a bullet half mile in :48 flat (fastest of 23) last month. Maybe he can run some.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade:
Single: 7-Smooth Pebble

Forecast: Smooth Pebble made the pace but weakened in the final furlong to finish sixth of eight in a tougher starter’s allowance sprint over this course and distance earlier this month. She’s realistically spotted in this softer restricted (nw-3) $40,000 affair and was fortunate enough to have drawn a field that guarantees her an easy trip as the controlling speed. Given the projected pace scenario she really should not miss the opportunity to win her third race from five career starts as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade:
Use: 1-Misty Veil; 5-More Moonshine

Forecast: More Moonshine won her debut here last month like a good thing, settling towards the back of the pack and then exploding when set down for the drive to win going away before being eased up late in a fast, highly-rated seven furlong sprint. How much did the muddy track move her up, if any? Hard to say. With just that one sprint underneath her, she tackles tougher while stretching out to a mile and one-eighth, so the W. Mott-trained daughter of Malibu Moon still has plenty to prove. However, due to her upside, she must be considered the filly to beat. Misty Veil easily disposed of a starter’s allowance field over this track and distance last month but, like our top pick, did so on a wet track that may have flattered her form. From her inside draw the daughter of Tonalist seems sure to employ the same kind of front-running tactic as last time and based on speed figures she’ll be right there if she can perform as well on dry land as she did in the mud. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-O’Gotten Girl; 5-Silver Strand

Forecast: Silver Stand, a $575,000 Saratoga yearling purchase two years ago, finally makes it to the post in this extended maiden sprint for fillies and mares. A half-sister to a Grade-1 winner in Japan and out of the multi-stakes winning/producing India, she has displayed efficient action and plenty of ability in her morning trials to be fit and ready for W. Mott, whose first-timers often run better than they work. This is hardly the toughest maiden sprint of the season, so we’ll be surprised if ‘Strand isn’t quite competitive and maybe even good enough to win it. O’Gotten Girl, freshened since February, failed as the favorite in her three most recent races before being stopped on and hopefully the vacation will help her return to her best form. The T. Pletcher-trained daughter of Competitive Edge likely will show plenty of early zip under l. Saez from her rail post position and if not pressured early may take this field gate-to-wire. We’ll prefer Silver Strand on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Single: 6-Fenway

Forecast: Fenway always has wanted to be a sprinter and finally, in his fifth career start, the son of Into Mischief gets a chance to display his speed around one turn after shipping to Saratoga from the West Coast to take advantage of New York-bred company. The son of Into Mischief catches a field that on paper he should be able to dominate from start to finish, so we’ll take the short price and make him a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Shamrocket; 5-Dynadrive

Forecast: Shamrocket, a respectable third in the Bowling Green S.-G2 over this course and distance last month, shows up in a second-level allowance race and should find this group well within his capabilities. He’s always been the type that prefers to run second or third (12 times) rather than win (three times), but his recent numbers are strong so we’re expecting a top effort from the T. Pletcher-trained son of Tonalist. Dynadrive, not as strong in the speed figure department as our top pick but always genuine and consistent, should have no issue with this mini-marathon trip and is a relatively fresh horse making his first start in almost two months and bringing with him a perfect (1-for-1) record over the Saratoga lawn. We’re expecting the M. Maker-trained colt to settle in a cozy second flight position and then have dead aim when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Gambling Cat; 4-Coworth Park; 5-Kitten With a Whip; 6-Battle Bling

Forecast: This messy $50,000 claiming middle distance turf event restricted to 3-year-old fillies that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four-deep but otherwise pass the race. Gambling Cat is lightly-raced with steadily rising speed figures, and with another forward move today the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be capable of regaining her winning form. A solid third with a career top mark sprinting on grass in late June, the M. Maker-trained filly stretches out again and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking position in a race that seems certain to be slowly run early. Battle Bling drops $25,000 below her claim level in just her second start since being haltered by D. Gargan, not a particularly healthy sign, but this barn can be very aggressive with its claiming stock and at this level and given this pace scenario the daughter of Vancouver looks well-spotted for a major effort. Kitten With a Whip is a fit on numbers and remains well above her claim level, so the connections apparently still like her. Runner-up vs. tougher allowance foes at Pimlico last month, the daughter of Big Blue Kitten should be dangerous from off the pace. Coworth Park, freshened since mid-June, had been protected since winning a maiden $25,000 claimer last December at Gulfstream. This class drop coupled with the return to a 3-year-old only race are positive factors along with being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Sadie Lady

Forecast: Sadie Lady must concede a ton of weight in this year’s renewal of the Union Avenue H. for New York-bred fillies and mares, but the veteran daughter of Freud simply should be too quick for her five rivals, though this six and one-half furlong trip might be stretching her range to the max. Freshened since June after winning a state-bred stakes at Belmont Park, the R. Atras-trained mare has ticked over nicely with a series of easy and steady drills to have her fit and sharp, so we’re expecting another flag fall-to-that’s all performance as a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Single: 4-Marvelous Maud

Forecast: Marvelous Maud overcame a slow start to rally and pick up third money in her debut over a mile on grass at Belmont Park in mid-June and today makes her second career start while trying two turns in a similar state-bred maiden affair for fillies and mares. She doesn’t appear to have a significant turn of foot – she’s more of a grinder – but at this trip and with that bit of experience behind her the C. Brown-trained filly should improve enough to graduate. She was actually entered in a race last month but was scratched when the race was moved to the main track, so we wouldn’t be concerned about the layoff. In a race in which there doesn’t’ appear to be a viable alternative, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 07:16 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #3

#2 Plum Sexy	She has hinted at having some talent throughout her career, but she has yet to take one more step forward needed to be competitive. She'll go for a dangerous Miller barn off the claim with a rider who has handled this trip nicely this season.
#6 Deise Delight	She'll race with blinkers on for the first time, but there is a chance she gets caught up in a solid pace with this bunch. Think she would feel like an underlay at somethin like the 9/5 ML price.
#1 New Drama	Love the placement off the maiden win, but this might be a tough test in a spot where she's likely to have other speed stacked up outside of her from the start.
Race Summary	Plum Sexy has some ability to finish from off the splits in a race where the tempo may be on the quick side. She's protected while cutting back off the claim -- all potentially good signs.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#6 K P All Systems Go	Think he has some upside in this second start off the break and second try as a 4yo. While his best game might be at Santa Anita, he is interesting enough while adding a quarter mile here.
#5 Ward 'n Jerry	He has been pretty tough when racing outside of stakes company, so he has a right to be pretty tough here while racing for the tag. He has faced some pretty tough ones at long trips.
#3 Ocean Atlantique	He's better than he showed last time out when only making a mild move, and he might get the right kind of first-over trip at this longer distance.
Race Summary	K P All Systems Go will need to step forward here, but he has room to do so after getting the comeback race out of the way last out. He benefits if this becomes a foot race late.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#9 Love of the Sport	He could be worth a look if something like the 15/1 ML price holds while getting blinkers on for the first time here. He cuts the tag in half and could wake up for a rider who has done his best work this meet going one turn on the main.
#6 Eight Maker	He comes right back at the same level for the new barn after being claimed out of the debut try, and he might offer a playable price while switching into that barn that has struggled at the meet.
#7 Tiz Vicious	Blinkers go back on as he turns back around one bend, but the form is all over the place, and I'm not sure I'd want to be sitting here at too short a price. Capable underlay.
Race Summary	Love of the Sport drops for this while adding blinkers, and some of the logical horses in here might be vulnerable at unappealing prices.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 07:18 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#2 SOUTHWIND SYLVESTR	Led clear, earned top speed figure, ran second in same spot.
#5 CRICKET FASHION	Romped at odds-on two back, trotted evenly in faster division of split race last week.
#8 PIVOTAL	Won three in a row locally before streak ended at the Meadowlands.
Race Summary	Southwind Sylvestr set a good pace and settled for second best behind the 7-2 pocket sitter in his second try at this level. He can use his speed well from an inner post and offers plenty of value. Play a 2-5-8 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4

#6 EATAAMSBETTERSHARK	Troubled in three-peat attempt, expect him in play early.
#7 LIL RED SPORTSSTAR	Passed by many of same rivals to run second, but he's winless this year.
#4 DAVID LLOYD GEORGE	Outran his odds with three straight in-the-money finishes.
Race Summary	Eataamsbettershark retreated to the back of the pack early despite starting from the rail, went off stride on the backstretch, then finished willingly and galloped out strong while widest in the stretch. He should be back on the engine and could be back in the winners' circle.

Hoosier Park - Race #7

#3 BEN RACIN	Eye-catching move produced clear lead before he folded in the stretch.
#4 ODDS ON OVERDRAFT	Rallied from far back, though out of the money in two starts against better.
#5 LATE ODDS	Finished in the money in 4 of 5 starts thus far.
Race Summary	Ben Racin made an explosive backstretch brush to the lead and stayed there until he wilted in late stretch. Could be a sign of better things to come at 8-1 on the morning line. Bet on him to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 07:19 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #3

#5 A G Indy	Closed for third on the turf last out at Santa Anita and has trained well for return off a six-month layoff; freshness off the break and natural speed will probably put her close from the beginning.
#6 Deise Delight	Turns back from setting the pace and finishing third going a mile; likely to finish well.
#4 I'm the Boss of Me	Moves over to the turf after setting the pace and finishing second at this level last time; can be a strong factor in his third of the year.
Race Summary	A G Indy has shown ability and class, and her training off a layoff will put her in the mix from the outset; capable off winning off the bench.

Del Mar - Race #7

#4 Margot's Boy	Looks like the price play here as he was an even fifth in the California Dreamin for state-breds on turf last time and was second at this level on dirt; has lots of stakes experience and can be in the mix throughout the 1 3-8 miles.
#3 Ocean Atlantique	Was going going long at Keeneland and in his first over this course was sixth in a similar spot as this; American Pharoah colt was a multiple stakes winner in France prior to this year and fits the part for this.
#1 Big Buzz	Likes running the longer distances and comes in off a closing third at this distance; likely to be close-up throughout.
Race Summary	Margot's Boy has races on his form that would make him a big player here, and the appearance of others that often get play will give him a boost on the board. Likely to be a factor from the outset.

Del Mar - Race #8

#2 Hot Pursuit	Was claimed for today's price by Ellis last out and had run three straight thirds; can break and run close-up vs. these.
#3 Perfecto Amor	Drops out of a maiden special race and was third for $50K two back; drops to his lowest level and will get a ton of support.
#7 Tiz Vicious	Set the pace going longer and turns back to a sprint; likely to finish well going 6.5 furlongs today.
Race Summary	Hot Pursuit ran well in a trio of races at Los Al and didn't get engaged in his last one, while claimed; is better than he showed last time and can get a good trip in this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:54 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar

Del Mar - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Super High 5
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIZ VICIOUS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PERFECTO AMOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HOT PURSUIT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	TIZ VICIOUS	9/5	4/1
3	PERFECTO AMOR	5/2	6/1
2	HOT PURSUIT	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	HONOR AMONG MEN	11	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	95.2	59.4	47.9
2	HOT PURSUIT	2	8/1	Front-runner	74	70	78.5	66.9	56.9
7	TIZ VICIOUS	7	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	89	83	74.5	66.8	59.8
3	PERFECTO AMOR	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	84	61.6	61.6	57.6
8	GORDY'S BOY	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	67	46.2	59.0	52.0
6	EIGHT MAKAR	6	10/1	Trailer	0	0	20.9	56.9	39.9
9	LOVE OF THE SPORT	9	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	57.7	60.5	51.0
4	ALARMING MOMENT	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	67	65.4	55.3	40.3
5	PHILIPIE FAST	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	56.9	15.2	0.0
10	REVISIONIST	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	51.3	57.8	43.3
1	CALL NINE ONE ONE	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	72	43.2	57.5	42.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:54 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park

Canterbury Park - Race 3	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Daily Double / $.50 Rolling Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $7,500 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 6:12P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 19 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 19 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FASHION ROSE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BELLA FIGURA (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FASHION ROSE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/su rface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	BELLA FIGURA (IRE)	9/5	4/1
1	FASHION ROSE	8/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FASHION ROSE	1	8/1	Front-runner	75	67	85.0	71.6	61.1
4	JAGGED ARROW	4	12/1	Front-runner	73	68	69.2	57.4	47.9
5	BELLA FIGURA (IRE)	5	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	74	75	70.2	71.6	66.1
6	VISUAL MAGIC	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	73	77.4	70.6	65.1
2	ACCORDING TO ASPEN	2	2/1	Trailer	88	80	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	MODERN MUSE	3	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	86	92	45.5	56.9	50.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:55 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8400 Class Rating: 63

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CLUB CHAMP 9/2
# 7 FERRIC 20/1
# 4 SOONER THAN SOONER 10/1

CLUB CHAMP looks like the wager in here. Boasts reliable Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group of horses in his last contest. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a contender. FERRIC - When Ecoffey uses McNeil there's a good chance for generous winnings. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Ecoffey running at this distance are the top in this group of horses in this race. SOONER THAN SOONER - He has been moving admirably as of late while recording solid speed figures. Must be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last competition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:56 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:30pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,200 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#6 LONGSTORYLUCY (ML=4/1)
#2 RISKSRHIGHPAYISLOW (ML=8/1)
#7 MABEL (ML=5/2)

LONGSTORYLUCY - The jock/trainer pair of Peltroche and Brown has a strong return on investment together. This mare won at this distance on February 25th and was at a higher class than today. This mare is utmost in earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this animal in the saddling enclosure. Racing at a similar level as last race on Jul 15th at Charles Town. I think Brown has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances right here. RISKSRHIGHPAYISLOW - Comes out of a last contest against 'open' company on July 29th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedy sort facing sluggish sorts today. Have to believe this pace horse has a nice chance on this bullring. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position. MABEL - Mare was in versus 'open company' on Jul 30th and should find this group easier to deal with. It looks like Hiraldo had to know this mare on Jul 30th when riding her for the initial time. Back atop again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MACKENZIE'S STAR (ML=7/2), #3 SAILING ROCK (ML=5/1), #1 CASTLEINTHEMEADOW (ML=6/1),

MACKENZIE'S STAR - You figure that this animal is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. Finished fourth in her most recent race with a common speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. SAILING ROCK - Registered a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last time out in a $5,000 Claiming race on August 5th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. CASTLEINTHEMEADOW - Hard to take this vulnerable equine at this price after the finish (sixth) in the last race. This horse ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RISKSRHIGHPAYISLOW - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a layoff. That's the time when they peak.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 LONGSTORYLUCY is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:57 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:44pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#5 SWORN SILENCE (ML=9/5)

SWORN SILENCE - Looking at the data on all of these thoroughbreds, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long look at this horse. This horse is tops in earnings per start (EPS). She looks solid in today's race. Ramirez is sharp with any horse racing 1st time after a claim. The trainer is very good with those types.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SWANEE BEACH (ML=5/2), #3 COSTA SUGAR (ML=4/1), #1 LUCKY LINZ (ML=9/2),

SWANEE BEACH - Garnered a run-of-the-mill speed figure in the last race in a $5,000 Claiming race on July 8th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure. COSTA SUGAR - I find it hard to play this horse this time out. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you bet on her in a race of 7 furlongs. LUCKY LINZ - Mediocre speed fig last out at Evangeline Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SWORN SILENCE - This mare has the top last speed figure at Evangeline Downs. Must be considered in your wagering.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 SWORN SILENCE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:58 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arlington

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 LANE 5. 15 FT. OUT. (IF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 GOOD MONGOLIA 3/1
# 5 SENSE OF SELF 2/1
# 2 LADY BREXIT 7/2

GOOD MONGOLIA is my choice. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been very strong - 82 avg - of late. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the competition. Posted a solid speed figure last time out. SENSE OF SELF - Profitable jockey and conditioner team, with a +81 return on investment. Posted a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. LADY BREXIT - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the most competitive class figs of this group. Is a solid choice - given the 87 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 02:58 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

08/19/21, SAR, Race 4, 2.49 ET
08/19/21,SAR,4,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:46:03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $103,000. (UP TO $17,922 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming Or Starter At A Mile Or Over Allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Ice Princess	5/2	Saez L	Gargan Danny	TS	162	40.74	1.28/$1
098.4757	5	More Moonshine	1/1	Ortiz J L	Mott William I.	FEC	162	40.74	1.28/$1
098.3042	4	Stop Shoppin Tammy	6/1	Cancel E	Bauer Philip A.		162	40.74	1.28/$1
098.2434	1	Misty Veil	4/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Amoss Thomas M.	J	162	40.74	1.28/$1
097.2333	6	Family Time	20/1	Gaffalione T	Romans Dale L.	WL	162	40.74	1.28/$1
096.6453	3	(F)Maoilin	10/1	Rosario J	Jerkens James A.		175	41.14	1.25/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 39.24, ROI 1.10/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.5243
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Last Race Distance Is Not Greater Than Today

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 03:00 PM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2021, 06:14 PM

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Thursday 8/19/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 8/19/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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