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Re: 2-3-09
FREE PLAY --- Big Al:
At 9:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antone. The Spurs won last night, 110-105 in overtime at Golden State. And that win kick-started San Antonio's annual "Rodeo Road Trip," which coincides with the time that the Stock Show and Rodeo invades the AT&T Center. Overall, the Spurs will play eight straight games away from home, and tonight's game at the Pepsi Center in Denver will be one of the most difficult to win. And that's for two reasons: First, Denver is 30-13 since trading for Chauncey Billups on November 3. And second, San Antonio has, historically, been dismal when playing without rest, with a 23-44 ATS record its last 67. Take Denver.Comment
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Re: 2-3-09
Dr Bob
4 Star Selection
Akron (-8 ½) over EASTERN MICHIGAN
03-Feb-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Eastern Michigan is a horrible team that has won just 1 game this season against a division 1 team and that victory was at home against a Central Michigan team that is nearly as bad as the Eagles. Eastern Michigan is just 4-13 ATS this season and they are still getting too much respect from the oddsmakers, as they have been even worse than normal in 5 games since starting off-guard Solomon Farris was injured (he’s out for the season). I went against Eastern Michigan in a Best Bet winner on Saturday with Miami-Ohio covering as an 11 point road favorite with a 15 point win. The Eagles are now 8-22-1 ATS in 4 seasons under coach Charles Ramsey when facing a team with a winning record and not getting at least 22 points. Akron, meanwhile, tends to play better against bad teams, as the Zips are now 36-9 ATS under coach Keith Dambrot when facing a team with a losing record and not laying 17 points or more, including 11 consecutive spread wins in that role. Akron also applies to a solid 146-61-5 ATS big road favorite situation while Eastern Michigan applies to a negative 4-38-3 ATS subset of a 36-91-5 ATS weak home court situation. Both those angles actually applied to Saturday’s Miami-Ohio over Eastern Michigan Best Bet win and I’ll play them again today given the line value (my ratings favor Akron by 12 ½ points). Eastern Michigan has faced 3 decent teams at home and the Eagles lost those games by 13 points to Oakland, by 22 points to Temple, and by 15 points to Miami-Ohio. Akron, meanwhile, has won by 9 points or more in games against the 4 worst teams they’ve played on the road, beating NC Greensboro, Bowling Green, Youngstown State, and Toledo by an average of 14 points in those road wins. The average rating of those 4 teams is 4 points higher than Eastern Michigan’s rating, so Akron could play worse than normal and still likely win this game by double-digits. This game has the rare combination of multiple situations applying to the same team, team trends applying to both teams that favor the same side and good line value supporting the technical analysis. The Zips have a very good 66% chance of covering at -8 ½ points I’ll take Akron in a 4-Star Best Bet at -9 or less, for 3-Stars from -9 ½ to -11 and for 2-Stars at -11 ½ or -12 points.
4-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars from -9 1/2 to -11, 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12.Comment
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Re: 2-3-09
Larry Ness' 15* Revenge Rout -CBB (4-1 or 80% ATS s/Jan 14)
My 15* Revenge Rout is on Bradley at 8:00 ET. Northern Iowa went to the NCAA tourney three years in a row (from 2004-06) but in the last two seasons under new coach Ben Jacobson, the Panthers have won 18 games each year, failing to gain a postseason bid of any kind. LY's 18-14 (9-9 in MVC play) was disappointing and gone from that team are leading scorer and rebounder Coleman (12.3-8.8) and second-leading scorer Josten (9.3). The Panthers returned a solid frontcourt with the 6-8 Koch (11.5-4.9), the 7-1 Eglseder (9.4-5.8) and the 6-6 O'Rear (5.5-5.2). However, the backcourt was a HUGE question mark. Aheleghe (11.4-3.1 APG) missed all of last season with an injury and the other two players the team was going to count on where JUCO transfer Farokhmanesh (10.5) and freshman Moran (9.9-4.0). As you can see by their numbers, the Panthers' backcourt performers have really come through. The season didn't start well though, as Northern Iowa lost its conference opener at home to Indiana St, 85-84 in OT. That left the Panthers with a 6-6 overall mark but it's been "nothing but winning" since! Northern Iowa has taken control of the MVC race by winning 10 straight games (8-2 ATS), opening a three-game lead over Illinois St, Creighton and tonight's opponent, Bradley. Can the Panthers be stopped? Sure they can, just like Wisconsin-Green Bay did last night in the Horizon League, to Butler (I had the Phoenix). Bradley made an excellent postseason run last year in the new CBI tourney, losing in the finals to Tulsa (best two-of-three). However, guards Crouch (15.8) and Ruffin (14.1-5.8 APG) plus the 6-7 Salley (6.1-6.9) were all seniors last year. Bradley knew they weren't coming back but the big blow came when LY's excellent freshman, the 6-5 Warren (13.2), also was lost for this season. All things considered, the Braves have been pretty good this year. They are 7-4 in MVC play, including 4-1 SU and ATS in home games (8-2 overall record at home). The 6-7 Wilson (13.4-7.4) leads in scoring and rebounding plus gets some help inside from the 7-0 Collins (4.0-3.5) and the 6-9 Singh (4.2-3.2). The backcourt is deep, with the returning Maniscalco (10.9-3.1 APG) being joined by two JUCOs, Roberts (8.1-4.0) and Dunson (11.8), plus freshman McCain (5.9). Bradley lost 66-61 in Cedar Falls back on Jan 21, in a game in which the Braves were awarded just seven FTs and in which Wilson (13.4-7.4) went scoreless. Wilson surely won't go scoreless again and look for a better distribution at the FT line as well. Ten straight conference wins is quite a run but it ends here for Northern Iowa, as a very capable Bradley "gets it right" in an in-season conference revenge game. Revenge Rout 15* Bradley.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (5-0 NBA run, as part of 10-1 BKB run s/Fri)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. Minnesota finished December at 6-25 but then won 10 of its first 12 games in January (9-2-1 ATS). However, the T-wolves closed the month with home losses to the Pistons and Lakers, before opening February with a 109-101 loss at Boston on Super Bowl Sunday. The T-wolves have a tough assignment tonight in an effort to break that three-game slide, as the Pacers have been playing well at home since the start of 2009. Actually, that's an understatement, as Indiana was a perfect 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) at home, while averaging 109.9 PPG in their first seven home games of January, before falling to the Knicks on Saturday (1/31). Offense wasn't the problem for the Pacers in that game (they scored 113 points), as they allowed the Knicks to score 122, while shooting 48.9 percent from the floor (including 15-of-34 on threes). Minnesota was able to win on the road in January (5-1 SU) but a couple of those wins came over the hapless Clippers and Grizzlies, while two others came at Chicago and Milwaukee (hardly powers). Center Al Jefferson (23.2-10.6) didn't make the All-Star team but he's played like one TY and guard Randy Foye (16.1) has "come into his own" this season. I'm not much sold on either of Minnesota's starting forwards, as Gomes (11.3-4.4) and Smith (9.0-3.5) seem rather ordinary to me. I realize that McHale is high on rookie Kevin Love (9.1-8.5) but I'm not 'buying' him either. As for the Pacers, Granger (25.5) has developed into one of the league's best scorers and while he's bothered by a sore knee, he has played in each of the team's last two games, scoring 19 points each time. TJ Ford (15.1-3.7-4.9) is back healthy and playing as well as he ever has, while Dunleavy (off a career-year LY with averages of 19.2-5.2-3.5), has averaged 14.6 PPG in his 15 games since finally getting healthy enough to play this season. Jack (10.7-3.9 APG) fell out of favor in Portland but has been an excellent back-up TY for Ford at the point. Murphy (12.1-11.4) continues to be one of the NBA's most underapreciated players (the PF shoots 41.7 percent on threes). while Foster (7.0-7.0), Nesterovic (8.2-3.8) and Hibbert (5.7-2.5) form a respectable center trio. The T-wolves are 2-7 all-time at Conseco Fieldhouse and let's not make too much of Minnesota's "January spurt." Las Vegas Insider Ind Pacers.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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