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Tony George
4 Units - #959 Milwaukee (-125) vs St Louis *7:45 EST
4 Units - #959 Milwaukee (-125) vs St Louis *7:45 EST
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Date Expert Rating Game Play Aug 18 Marco D'Angelo 4% [MLB] (977) Houston Astros at (978) Kansas City Royals
Time: 8:10 PM EDT1H Houston Astros -0.5 (-115) Z Greinke (RHP), B Singer (RHP) Must Start Analysis:4% (977) HOUSTON 1st 5 Innings -115
Going to look at the 1st 5 innings in this match up once again as we have a huge edge in the pitching match up. Zack Greinke goes for Houston and in 11 road starts he has a ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.88. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of his L10 starts and is coming off a 7 inning shutout performance. Kansas City sends Brady Singer to the mound and he has been terrible in his L2 starts allowing 12 runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. His home ERA is 5.53 and his WHIP is 1.69. By going 1st 5 innings we are getting a Mismatch with starting pitchers. We also find the following:
Key Stat: in his career when GREINKE starts his team is 121-43 (+42.8 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more
Key Stat: Kansas City is just 31-49 vs Right Handers this year.
TAKE HOUSTON -0.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings as my 4% MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEKComment
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- Game: (979) Toronto Blue Jays at (980) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Total Over 4.5 (-120) J Berrios (RHP), J Gray (RHP) Must Start
Same trends from the full game total…both bullpens have been close to LEAGUE worst the past 7 days, but the fact 5 runs wins this bet is reason enough to hammer this with the full game 9! - Game: (967) Boston Red Sox at (968) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Boston Red Sox -105 N Pivetta (RHP), A Heaney (LHP) Must Start
Oy vey….the Sox got swept yesterday in the doubleheader and we lost BOTH games…now they get to face Heaney (still in the starting rotation!!!) from the left side in a game they MUST win in order to keep the hated rival from taking sole possession of 1st place in the wild card standings!
Pivetta needs to step it up and let his hitters take advantage of Home Run Heaney early in this 9 inning game and throw up some goose eggs and we can get an easy win to open the night! - Game: (957) Atlanta Braves at (958) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135) C Morton (RHP), J Luzardo (LHP) Must Start
Don't threaten me with a good time…here we get Uncle Charlie on our side…somehow has gotten better in the second half and has a 3.15 FIP since the break with a .285 wOBA against…phenomenal stuff for the ageless one.
Meanwhile, Luzardo, somewhat of a steal long-term in the deal for the always was gonna be traded Marte, just isn't there yet, and his 6.72 FIP for the Fish so far is very ugly considering he is about to face a lineup that just whipped Braxton Garrett for a 7.84 FIP and 6 walks in just 3 full innings. Luzardo has nearly AS MUCH of a BoB problem, considering he is roughly striking out and walking the same number of batters per 9 innings!
Back to back to back with the Braves here as their streak continues and we keep getting somewhat bargain numbers due to the Fish recent success! - Game: (957) Atlanta Braves at (958) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Atlanta Braves Total Over 4.5 (-125) J Luzardo (LHP) Must Start
Similar to the game on Monday night facing Garrett…this spot offers similar amazing average/estimate team totals…one in particular that feels most prudent to this spot is team in the Braves spot on the road here averaging 6.77 runs per game all time…with a 7.3 runs per game narrowed down to just games fitting the last 3 seasons!
THEN….narrowing it FURTHER to the Braves as a team and eliminating team agnostic factors…the Braves are 7-0 SU and 6-1 RL since the break as road divisional favorites averaging 7.9 runs per game!!! - Game: (957) Atlanta Braves at (958) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Atlanta Braves -230 C Morton (RHP), J Luzardo (LHP) Must Start
RIGHT….is…..RIGHT - Game: (959) Milwaukee Brewers at (960) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Under 7.0 (-110) F Peralta (RHP), J Flaherty (RHP) Must Start
FLAT out the right play here
stud starter on the mound on the road, stud starter on the mound at home…Ramon De Jesus behind the plate and a 23-8 Under trend for him the previous 3 seasons…NOT accounting for this spot that features Peralta v. Flaherty…so I mean this should PROBABLY be a 6er, but I understand why this is what it is….but 4-2 is the ceiling here and that's probably quite high considering! - Game: (973) Seattle Mariners at (974) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Seattle Mariners -0.5 (-115) M Gonzales (LHP), M Foltynewicz (RHP) Must Start
This exact pitching matchup occurred on the first day of this month…and while what we SEE when we look back is a 4-3 win for the Rangers….the M's got to Folty quickly and held a lead of 3-1 until the closer came in for the 9th inning and allowed 2 base runners then a home run to Heim and the game ended in a flash.
INSANE trends back this in a spot fading Folty starting….let alone the fact Folty is topped only by…ahem…Jake Arrieta in F5 futility on the season so far! - Game: (973) Seattle Mariners at (974) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-100) M Gonzales (LHP), M Foltynewicz (RHP) Must Start
17-4 RL streak last 21 fits for this spot….BEFORE accounting for the teams and starters in the actual game!
ROI in the spot is roughly +50% since 2018….and of course we're playing the not nearly high enough ML spot! - Game: (973) Seattle Mariners at (974) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Seattle Mariners -158 M Gonzales (LHP), M Foltynewicz (RHP) Must Start
Correlated ML…also a 17-4 run for an ROI not nearly as spectacular as the RL profit, but slightly more than half the 50% return - Game: (977) Houston Astros at (978) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) Z Greinke (RHP), B Singer (RHP) Must Start
It's either this or the Astros are going to be losers of 3 consecutive games to the Royals…amidst hitting well against RHP, and getting to face Brady Singer on the mound starting tonight. He has a .548 wOBA against him in the second half, has seen his FIP go up by 0.60 points…and for those fan of ERA and the newspaper numbers I often mock…his ERA in the 2 starts since the break….19.04!!!
His fastball is coming in with a rating of -8 the past 2 starts and the Astros hit it well…and should feast against some really subpar and diminished stuff!
Comment
- Game: (979) Toronto Blue Jays at (980) Washington Nationals
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Marco D'Angleo
4% Houston Astros 1H (-115) - Greinke/Keller must startComment
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
UNDER 14
ANALYSIS: This total has risen from an overnight of 13 to where it's the highest number of the season (see news feed) and just out of principle I have to take the Under. The wind isn't blowing out at Coors Field. I get why the number is so high between two bad starting pitchers in Jake Arrieta (Padres debut) and Chi Chi Gonzalez (fill-in for Austin Gomber), but I'll take my chances at two TDs (and PATs). Both clubs are off Thursday so can use their bullpens heavily.
+2946 180-113-6 IN LAST 299 MLB PICKS
+183 4-2-1 IN LAST 7 COL O/U PICKS
9:35 AM
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/18 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -145
ANALYSIS: I was leaning toward picking the Giants in the first two games but decided late not to and of course they won both. Probably just jinxed myself here. Both starting catchers are out for this matinee, but Kris Bryant is in the lineup for the Giants after sitting Tuesday with hamstring tightness. It will be interesting to see how the Mets respond after owner Steve Cohen called out the team offensively on Twitter today. New York has lost its past six on the road and is 1-10 overall in its past 11 vs. winning teams. Rookie pitcher Tylor Megill has been a godsend but has been significantly worse on the road (4.79 ERA).
+2946 180-113-6 IN LAST 299 MLB PICKS
+479 6-1 IN LAST 7 SF ML PICKS
+329 14-8 IN LAST 22 NYM ML PICKS
1:58 PMComment
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John Bollman
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/18 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -145
ANALYSIS: Tylor Megill has looked good for the Mets but he is still a rookie facing the best team in baseball. He is also 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts in August. Anthony Desclafani has been solid for the Giants although he does have reverse home/road splits. The Giants are 42-18 at home and they have won 9 of their last 10 games while the Mets are 23-37 on the road and have lost five straight games. Take the Giants to get the sweep.
+2062 50-34 IN LAST 84 MLB ML PICKS
+996 35-22 IN LAST 57 SF ML PICKS
+550 9-4 IN LAST 13 NYM ML PICKS
1:53 PM
SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO +135
ANALYSIS: The Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 road games and 7-8 since the trade deadline. The Padres are 27-31 on the road and their bullpen is gassed. Yet, they signed Jake Arrieta to start today who is 0-6 with a 10.51 ERA since May. Chi Chi Gonzalez isn’t much better but he did pitch a quality start in San Diego earlier this season and the Rockies are 40-21 at home this season. This could be an ugly game with a lot of lead changes but I have a hard time believing the Padres should be this big of favorites on the road right now. Take the home dog.
+2062 50-34 IN LAST 84 MLB ML PICKS
+320 8-4 IN LAST 12 COL ML PICKS
+285 3-1 IN LAST 4 SD ML PICKS
1:52 PMComment
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Matt Snyder
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/18 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -145
ANALYSIS: Look, people have got to stop fighting this. The Giants are world-beaters, especially at home. They are 42-18 in Oracle Park this year. On the other side, we have a broken team. The Mets are 4-12 in August and their only wins came against the Marlins (in a series they lost) and what's left of the Nationals. The offense is only averaging 3.38 runs per game. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has only give up more than three runs in three of his 23 starts and two of those came against the Dodgers. And after a good start, Mets starter Tylor Megill has a 6.75 ERA in his last three outings. The Giants aren't heavy enough favorites here. Take 'em.
+1227 23-10 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS
+301 3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS
1:35 PM
SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO +135
ANALYSIS: As the highest total we've seen in a long time implies, there will be lots of scoring here. Chi Chi Gonzalez is not a good starter, but Jake Arrieta is brutal. In his last 15 starts, he has an 8.95 ERA while allowing the opponents to hit .355/.421/.645. Now he's in Coors where the Rockies hit .286/.347/.491 as a team. He won't last long and the depleted Padres' 'pen is already overworked. And remember, we stick with what works here. The Rockies are 40-21 at home, meaning they play like a 106-win team at home. The Padres have a losing road record and overall a losing record since the start of July. Take the home 'dog.
+1227 23-10 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS
+515 5-0 IN LAST 5 COL ML PICKS
+320 3-0 IN LAST 3 SD ML PICKS
1:28 PMComment
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IQ Sports
5* Blue Jays -155 (979)Comment
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Pure Lock
10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5Comment
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Pickswise Sports
MLB 3* Best Bets
Braves -1.5 runs
White Sox -170
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H&H Sports
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Double Dime - Red Sox/Yankees Over 10
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Jack Winningham
Los Angeles Angels -126 over the Detroit TigersComment
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #967-968
Red Sox/Yankees Over 10 runs
Pivetta/Heaney
It’s a humid night in the Bronx and Andrew Heaney has been a home run pitching machine. The Red Sox hit left handers well and should get to him a few times tonight. Nick Pivetta has his moments when he gives up the long ball as well as walks in bunches. I think the hitters in tonight’s game can do damage and do so early and often. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Over.Comment
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Robert Ferringo WNBA
2u Liberty -1Comment
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Sportsline Computer
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Los Angeles Angels -125Comment
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