Tuesday 8/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 05:50 AM

Monday Myths: Is the Travers Distance a Trap?

August 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

The mile and one-quarter distance is the great hurdle for horses to prove their mettle.

Background:

With Saturday’s Travers at the ‘classic’ American distance of a mile and one-quarter on dirt, you’re bound to hear and read this week about how important the distance factor will be. It’s a rare trip in the US, to be sure, but is it the stumbling block often cited?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all North American dirt races at one mile and one-quarter, finding 226 such races since 2014. The comparison will be for average winning payoff, percentage of winning favorites and percentage of races won by longshots 10-1 or more. The mile and one-quarter races will be compared to the two most common dirt distances – 6 furlongs (sprint) and 1-1/16 miles (route). Because of the large national volume of races at the common distances, we’ll use 2021 results to date for that study length.

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Mile and one-quarter dirt average $2 winning payouts are $9.88.

Six-furlong dirt average $2 winning payouts are $11.80.

Mile and one-sixteenth dirt average $2 winning payouts are $11.78.

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Mile and one-quarter dirt favorites win 39.1% with a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet.

Six-furlong dirt favorites win 37.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

Mile and one-sixteenth dirt favorites win 38.7% with a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Mile and one-quarter dirt races are won by longshots 10-1 or more 8.4% of the time.

Six-furlong dirt races are won by longshots 10-1 or more 8.7% of the time.

Mile and one-sixteenth dirt races are won by longshots 10-1 or more 8.6% of the time.

Overall Findings:

Mile and one-quarter winners produce the smallest $2 win payouts of the distances sampled, while producing the best percentage of winning favorites and the least percentage of longshot winners 10-1 or more odds. In all 3 areas studied, they are the most reliable runners by distance. They perform at a sizeable 2% difference in terms of winning favorites compared to the 6-furlong commonly run distance and a whopping $1.92 less return in terms of payout compared to 6-furlong winners.

Bottom line:

Any fear that mile and one-quarter dirt races produce some uncertainty and chaos are statistically unwarranted and false. While any distance is susceptible to occasional upsets, this one is slightly less likely than its counterparts. In fact, you may argue it's more formful from the data cited above.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does your favorite local track perform in terms of reliable results at each of its various distances? Learn where you might be able to find more frequent longshot leans, and reliable singles for multi-race tickets.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 05:54 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #1

#7 CAPTAIN ROMANCE	Dueled through final half with pace-setting fave, just missed.
#2 DOUBLE METAL	Ran 1-2-3 recently in same spot with Marohn Jr. in the bike.
#4 MIKIBYTHESEASIDE	Sandwiched pair of wins in easier conditions round a runner-up finish at this level.
Race Summary	Captain Romance poked a head in front of the pace controlling favorite with a solid third-quarter brush, only to fall a neck short of victory at the same level. He must get good early position on the switch to an outside starting spot. Play 7-2 and 7-4 exactas.

Pocono Downs - Race #3

#1 ARBITOR HANOVER	Made good first impression locally, draws rail, offers value.
#2 FINLANDIA	Pair of seconds from up close in his last four starts against similar.
#6 LA DEE GAA	Awakened with strong rally in latest, gets pace to run at.
Race Summary	Arbitor Hanover came out at the half-mile marker, grinded first-over and led until mid-stretch, then wilted late. He could win in his second start at Pocono with a duplicate effort. Play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#6 MODERN ROCK	Rally for third at 32-1 was better than it looks on paper.
#7 JULERICA	Led until late in bid for fourth win in row, draws farther outside.
#1 QUAN BLUE CHIP	Held his ground from post 9, ran second in faster-paced division of split race.
Race Summary	Modern Rock was trapped 5-deep on the rail through the final turn, then blocked with run in the stretch until he split rivals late to finish third. He continued strong on the gallop out and is well worth the 8-1 morning-line price. Bet on him to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 05:55 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 San Costantino	He'll debut from the fence for a barn that has been having an incredible meet, connecting at nearly 50%, and there isn't much proven finishing ability signed on in here, so the hope is that he'll let some of the pace players go and try to pick these up late.
#3 Jo Jo Hans	Can't argue much with the local debut last time out, but he'll need to sustain that move a bit better and will probably be overbet in the process.
#5 The Peninsula	He caught an easy winner in the local debut, but that sort of effort at least keeps him in the picture with the best in here, and maybe a small step forward gets him home.
Race Summary	San Costantino debuts for connections who have scored at 65% together this meet, and he may be best served by trying to flash a touch of tactical pace while staying in the pocket and out of an early battle.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#6 New Jersey John	He'll drop a bit for this after taking a step back last time out, but his better tries -- something like that two-back run -- would be enough to handle these.
#4 Dynaform	He might be in a bit deep with the locals, but the recent form is pretty solid and he has some tactical speed to put to use in the local debut. Mountaineer to PID shippers are about 8% the last few years, and he might be able to land a piece at a price.
#1 Fuel the Bern	Guessing he's going to have a run for it from the fence while adding blinkers, and it wouldn't be a real surprise to see him wire this group if the top choice doesn't hassle him enough.
Race Summary	New Jersey John is capable of some pretty big races, and he might get a perfect kind of trip while pressing the rail runner. Dynaform is the price player I'll try to get in the frame with the other listed pair.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#3 Driftwood	He can be a little dicey late in some of his races, but he looks like lone speed at a 9f trip where controlling pace can be really dangerous. Wouldn't want much shorter than the 5/2 ML price.
#7 Make Noise	He has never been on synthetic footing, but he has been in with some decent groups while racing in Kentucky and Arkansas. The running lines are there to be competitive with the locals.
#1 Gold Wing	He certainly handles the local footing, but that 31: 3-12-3 slate staring back suggests he he's more likely to share underneath than land this, and it looks that way on paper with these.
Race Summary	Driftwood should be able to control the tempo from the start, and he's rising with good local form while stretching out an additional furlong.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 05:56 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#4 Rich Kingdom	Ran on for second last out and has been running like he wants to stretch out again; his pedigree indicates he should be able to do just that. His only on-the-board placing in four one-mile starts was third, but he's in good form and looks improved.
#1 Nobody Listens	Was second in stakes races in his last out and is troublesome on the front end; will be heavily favored.
#2 Danang	Was a closing third last out and was third going this distance three races back; doing his best running this year and would not be a surprise.
Race Summary	Rich Kingdom has been running well and is closing as if he wants more ground; he gets it today and can run down the leaders.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#3 Risky Town	Made a good move to second and then finished third in his latest, which was on turf at Ellis; has been with talented runners and can finished well here.
#6 Evil Eye	Was a clear winner in two straight and then was third in his latest; does well on or near the front end and will be in that position today.
#8 Jack's Advantage	Was claimed last out by West and steps up to a higher level; has been on the board six of his last seven.
Race Summary	Risky Town gets a good pace ahead of him and can close strongly against these.

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#1 Game Boy Benny	Was sharp in his last one as he collared the leader late; good at this level and will be the one to hold off.
#2 Dilettante	Won two straight here before finishing second last out; can press at once and will be in the mix driving to the wire.
#3 Trappe Valley	Comes in from Arlington, where he was third last out; hasn't won since last October but has been with good company and fits with these.
Race Summary	Game Boy Benny doesn't step away from a good fight and he'll be in one today; can win if he runs back to his latest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 08:33 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200693) Aston Villa at (200694) Barrow
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: August 24, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score - Yes (-125)
We like the Both Teams to Score - Yes prop on Tuesday in the English League Cup matchup between Aston Villa and Barrow.
Expect a rejigged Aston Villa squad on Tuesday as they travel to League Two side Barrow in the hopes of polishing off the minnows in what is on paper at least, a bit of a slam dunk tie for the Premier League club.
However, Villa's road record leaves a lot to be desired, winning just two of their last seven away from home and failing to keep a single clean sheet over that time frame as well.
Barrow meanwhile are unbeaten in their last three at home, scoring four goals over their last three matches inside Holker Street Stadium also and look to be hitting solid form ahead of their big cup clash against Aston Villa on Tuesday.
Take the Both Teams to Score prop Yes on Tuesday in the game between Aston Villa and Barrow over in the English League Cup.
PLAY: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 08:34 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Benoit Paire vs Gilles Simon
Sport/League: TNS

Date/Time: August 24, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Benoit Paire (-135)
ATP Winston-Salem
Paire looked solid in Cincinnati beating Shapo and Isner before losing in three sets to Rublev. That should carry over for him here against Simon who has been playing terribly with just two wins in his last 15 matches.
TAKE BENOIT PAIRE
Line Parameter: 3% to -150, 2% to -175

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 08:34 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Young Boys at Ferencvaros
Sport/League: UEFA

Date/Time: August 24, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score + OVER 2.5 Goals (-135)
UEFA Champions League Qualifying
The first leg saw Young Boys win 3-2 at home over Ferencvaros desire being handed a red card in the 25' minute of the game. In fact, they scored two of their goals playing with only ten men as it was 1-1 when he was sent off which is pretty impressive.
Young Boys have always been an offensive attacking team in the Swiss Super League, but like many of these teams playing in the UCL qualifiers, they are prioritizing earning their birth into the Champions League group stage and resting players on the weekend in their domestic league play. As a result, they have actually been held scoreless in two of their three league games, but I wouldn't dwell on that too much. Instead, look at their UCL results in which they have scored in four of five games so far and in both of their leg 2 matches in previous rounds, they netted three goals themselves while also allowing their opponents to score.
For Ferencvaros, this will now be their 8th UCL qualifying game and they have scored in all but one game which was leg two in the last round against Slavia Prague but they led 2-0 after leg 1 and didn't need to score in that 2nd leg to move on. They have also conceded in each of their three leg 2 matches as the style of play certainly changes in leg 2.
The winner moves on to the group stage so this game is everything both teams have been playing for. I think we see plenty of chances both ways as both teams will do whatever is necessary to push for the win.
TAKE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE + OVER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 2% to -150

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 08:35 AM

Jimmy Adams

Event: (951) Arizona Diamondbacks at (952) Pittsburgh Pirates
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: August 24, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -109 M Bumgarner (LHP), J Brubaker (RHP) Must Start
The Diamondbacks took a tough 6-5 loss Monday night after leading for most of the game. They’re in a great spot to bounce back Tuesday behind Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has really turned his season around, not allowing more than 2 earned runs in his last 7 starts. He allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 8 innings of work last time out against the Phillies. AZ has also won 7 of their past 11 games. JT Brubaker has one of the worst ROI’s among all starters in baseball. He’s 4-13 with a 5.49 ERA and allowed 7 earned in his last start. Brubaker gave up 5 and 9 runs in the two starts prior. If all that wasn’t enough, the Bucs have lost 6 of 9 and 14 of their past 18 games. Take Arizona.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -115 or lower, 3 units at higher than -115

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 11:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park

Canterbury Park - Race 3	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Daily Double / $.50 Rolling Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / 10% Takeout $1 Pick 6
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 6:09P
FOR MN-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SUMMER FIREFLYS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUMMER FIREFLYS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combi nation return on investment is at least +20. SPEEDY ENOUGH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	SUMMER FIREFLYS	2/1	9/5
5	SPEEDY ENOUGH	5/2	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SUMMER FIREFLYS	1	2/1	Front-runner	62	37	55.9	35.1	31.6
5	SPEEDY ENOUGH	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	61	56	42.3	43.7	41.7
3	BIRD FEATHER	3	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	18.0	5.7	0.0

Unknown Running Style: LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT (7/2) [Jockey: Canchari Alex L - Trainer: Robertson McLean], I CINC EYE LUV U (8/1) [Jockey: Arroyo Miguel - Trainer: Rarick Lynn], THE CHAMPS KID (4/1) [Jockey: Butler Dean P - Trainer: Rhone Bernell B].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 11:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 2:45P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SYMBOL AZTECA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaste r Power Rating. JOEBOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/ surface.
6	SYMBOL AZTECA	4/5	9/5
3	JOEBOY	3/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	JOEBOY	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	48	61.0	32.8	28.8
6	SYMBOL AZTECA	6	4/5	Alternator/Stalker	68	61	55.6	61.2	59.2
5	KASENS TRAIN	5	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	51	47	46.5	37.0	30.5
2	OREGON COUNTY	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	33	59.1	26.3	16.3
4	ACTIFDASH	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	55	41.7	28.4	18.9
1	HEAVENLY TRUMP	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	30.8	30.8	21.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 11:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 24. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SMIRK 5/2
# 6 SPIN CYCLE 8/5
# 3 QUENCH MY THIRST 10/1

SMIRK has a strong shot to take this race. Should best this group here, showing very good figures of late. Ran a strong last race. Has a strong shot in this contest if you like back class. SPIN CYCLE - Is hard not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been strong - 64 avg - of late. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by McClellan have shown sharp results lately. QUENCH MY THIRST - Could beat this field given the 64 speed rating put up in his last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 11:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 6:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#6 DAVE'S TEXAS LADY (ML=6/1)
#5 WILD LOOKER (ML=7/2)

DAVE'S TEXAS LADY - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. When Alencar and Radosevich team up on equines the ROI has been fabulous at +42. Could be an overlay right here at morning odds of 6/1. Finished fourth in last race at Presque Isle Downs but was close at the end. WILD LOOKER - This horse is not the M/L favorite, yet she finished ahead of today's chalk in their last race together. This mare is in exceptional form right now. Ended up first last time out and comes back rapidly. Hay must have known this mare would run well at this track. Won her last race here on August 10th and now goes for a double. The 78 last race speed rating looks good in black and white. The improved speed figs over the last 3 races is solid. Hay drops her in this race ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MALARKEY (ML=2/1), #1 YES IT'S ERIE (ML=3/1), #4 TROIS PONTS (ML=8/1),

MALARKEY - Tough to put any money on this mare on the win end. Likes to end up on the board though. YES IT'S ERIE - This mare showed very little last time out. Difficult to put any money on this mare on the top end. Likes to land in the top three though. TROIS PONTS - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing ability on November 29th. Didn't let me see enough zip in the route affair for me to back her in today's sprint affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 DAVE'S TEXAS LADY on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 11:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $24108 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING SINCE JULY 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $12,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. *PLUS UP TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CHEEKY PINT 9/5
# 6 FEATURE CREATURE 7/2
# 4 CAPOEIRA 9/2

CHEEKY PINT looks very strong to best this field. She has to be given consideration given the respectable speed figs. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this filly. She looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. FEATURE CREATURE - Could provide positive gains based on strong recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 82. She has respectable class ratings, averaging 89, and has to be given a shot in this competition. CAPOEIRA - With a sound 78 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Has the looks of a money-making wager.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-24-2021, 11:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#6 SIXTY CENT (ML=9/5)
#1 AMAZING DANCER (ML=7/2)

SIXTY CENT - Hamm drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more information to think this horse should run well at this level. Popular handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. Ranked number one in earnings per start. Another sign that this horse has the class to win. AMAZING DANCER - The jock/trainer tandem of Leon and Pitts has a strong ROI together. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LADY UNBRIDLED (ML=3/1), #5 LUCKY TUESDAY (ML=4/1),

LADY UNBRIDLED - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance races of late. Doubtful to see her doing it this time out either. LUCKY TUESDAY - In this type of situation, this vulnerable equine's inability to close in the last race is a reason for concern. This filly hasn't had any on the board results in short distance contests in the last two months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 SIXTY CENT to win at post-time odds of 6/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Tuesday 8/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 8/24/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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