Friday 8/27/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:41 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 27, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a 14-race card to start the weekend. The headliners on the program are 2-year-old colts and gelding pacers competing in Indiana Sires Stakes action. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

2-Many (5-1)-This 8-year-old is only 1-23 at HoP and 5 for the last 61 overall. Normally that's a reason to look away but this is a soft spot. Has been cashing checks versus much better and this could be a spot to shine.
6-Crusher Q (6-1)-Came off the bench with a 54.0 back half in HoP debut. Fits with this bunch and could be driven more aggressively with a start under his belt and should offer a solid price.
8-My House (7/2)-Drops into a soft condition and would probably be the morning line chalk with a better post. Versus a suspect bunch, Shetler will likely leave and then it will be a question as to how the trip goes. Has the speed to be a player but will need a good steer with this post draw.

Race 12

5-Sonny Weaver N (5/2)-If the chart is correct this New Zealand bred paced a 52.1 back half with a 25.4 last panel. That was the 1st start at Hoosier and off that effort will use in case Wise Sky doesn't bring his "A" game.
7-He'zzz A Wise Sky (9/5)-This 4-year-old has had some year finishing in the money in 15 of 16 with 7 wins. Has a good record at HoP but has been more dominate at Hawthorne. Deserves respect and will use but also include #5 with the hopes of adding some juice to the Pick 4 payout.

Race 13

1-Uncmprmising Z Tam (5-1)-Was used very hard from the 9-hole to get the top, then faded down the lane and was claimed by the Redmond barn. Drops to a level for success and should be a factor but recent form has been dull.
2-Harambe Deo (7/2)-Gets a positive driver change in Widger and drops down a notch. Got on the engine when facing similar on 7-9 and made every call a winning one. The same pilot was between the pipes to take that picture.
5-Sea Of Life (2-1)-Tetrick steered for Cullipher on 7-3 versus the Open II kind, got on the point starting from the rail and never looked back. The same pilot is back up for the 1st time since that win. Recent form has not been great but this could be a wake-up spot.

Race 14

1-Mindtrip (9/5)-This 8-year-old was scratched-Lame on 1-30, then qualified back on 4-24, raced two times and then was put away again. Requalified on 8-18 in a snappy 151.3 and should be a major player versus this crew if close to 100%. The price will be tiny, but this is a very soft spot.
4-Gazing Star (6-1)-This is another who takes a big drop and has issues but comes off a decent try from post 10. Should be a solid price so will take a swing in case #1 isn't dialed on high and hope for a smooth journey.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,6,8/5,7/1,2,5/1,4
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:42 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Friday, August 27, 2021

August 27, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-So Much Happy; 5-Zabava

Forecast: So Much Happy returns to her proper level and catches a field that should allow her to gain her coveted front-running trip. As the controlling speed in this $35,000 claiming field of fillies and mares, the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Twirling Candy should be hard to catch. Zabava moves up a notch for K. Mulhall, who has superior stats with the first-off-the-claim angle (31%), so we’re expecting the veteran mare to continue her good recent consistent form. She likes to settle and blast home, so if she can get a little help up front the daughter of Skipshot will be dangerous late. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Morning Addiction; 7-American Bourbon; 8-Flat Out Joy

Forecast: Flat Out Joy toyed with a modest (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field sprinting 12 days ago and is wheeled back on short rest on the one level raise to a (nw-3) $20,000 miler in her first-off-the-claim for D. O’Neill. The quick turnaround is of some concern, but this will be her first try around two turns (bred for it) and we suspect she will run just as well routing as she does going short. American Bourbon is drawn just inside of her and likely will be committed to a front-running trip, relegating Flat Out Joy to a stalker’s role (no worries, she can win that way). ‘Bourbon returns to dirt, a surface she’s never won on, and the J. Wong barn is something like 1-for-31 at the meeting, but front speed is always dangerous, so we’ll toss her in. Morning Addiction won a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 seller in clever fashion in late July (beating Flat Out Joy) but returns for new trainer A. Lerner at a lesser price, so it’s a tad concerning that the connections aren’t protecting her. These are the three we’ll be including on our ticket; preference on top goes to Flat Out Joy.
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RACE 3: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Conquest Cobra; 2-Studly Perfection

Forecast: Conquest Cobra makes a significant barn change to S. Miyadi via a $16,000 claim. Today, the ex-classer drops to the $10,000 level for a trainer that hits with 21% with the first-off-the-claim angle while also picking up one of the stable’s “go to” riders A. Cedillo. This looks like a drop for the money run. Studly Perfection exits the same race as our top pick and should stick much better today after flashing speed along the deep rail but then understandable faltering through the lane. Front-running tactics surely will be employed, and with the track now kinder to inside speed, the K. Mulhall-trained gelding could get loose and get very brave. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Oviatt Class; 4-Flying Drummer

Forecast: Flying Drummer and Oviatt Class, two-three finishers earlier this month in a hot maiden sprint won by the talented Montebello, meet again in this main track miler for juveniles, and both have the pedigrees to step forward considerably around two turns. ‘Drummer, from the first crop of Gun Runner, missed by a head after battling bravely through the lane in a very promising debut for B. Baffert, whose record with second-timers is quite good (22%). Oviatt Class, making his third career start, finished willingly to be a close third and sports the two-sprints-and-a-stretch angle that should have him plenty fit for this distance. By Bernardini from a mare by Tiznow, the K. Desormeaux-trained colt really has a nice future as the distances increase. We’ll give Flying Drummer the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Avigale; 6-Steak and Cheese

Forecast: Steak and Cheese ran well earlier this month at this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming level over the local lawn when a close fourth (moved up to third) in his first outing since arriving from Indiana. The M. Maker-trained gelding has had just five career starts, so there’s room for improvement, and with U. Ripsoli staying aboard and in a race that probably will have soft early splits, the pace-pressing Mizzen Mast gelding seems the logical top pick. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics Avigale, a J. Mullins-trained gelding dropping into a seller for the first time and making his third start in his current form cycle. He was simply overmatched when facing first-level allowance foes, but he has speed figures that are quite competitive in this league.
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RACE 6: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Miss Bigly

Forecast: Miss Bigly returns from the Midwest in much better form than she left, and if she repeats any of her last three races the P. D’Amato-trained mare will be hard to beat in this year’s renewal of the restricted Tranquility Lake S. over a mile on the main track. Runner-up in two listed stakes races while earning strong speed figures, the daughter of Gemologist has been freshened since late June but shows a local work tab that should have her plenty fit. The barn’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez takes the call and projects to find himself in an ideal stalking position behind need-the-lead Miss Stormy D and then be able to take command when ready.
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RACE 7: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Tiz the Tale

Forecast: Tiz the Tale finally makes it to the races after bringing $375,000 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale more than a year ago. There’s not much in his immediate female family but this colt previewed as well as anything in the sale, breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds while displaying lovely action and a nice, long stride. Obviously he’s had his issues, but his recent local a.m. tab looks solid for a barn whose first-timers often run better than they work, so in a race in which the known element doesn’t impress, let’s hope this colt can leave with his field and show his best stuff. We’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 7-Proud Veteran; 9-Doncic; 10-Safe Combination

Forecast:There are probably lots of stories surrounding this $32,000 maiden claimer that offers all kinds of possibilities featuring first-timers, shippers, comebackers, and workouts from San Luis Rey Downs that nobody knows anything about. Good luck! Proud Veteran, a Midwest invader who hasn’t been out in almost a year, returns as a first-time gelding and has been burning up the track at the training center for a low profile outfit. There’s no question the son of Justin Philip has speed, and maybe against this group he can clear early and never look back. Doncic shows awful form, but he continues to train like he can run. If J. Sadler, who claimed him for $100,000 out his debut last April, can get this colt to perform in the p.m. as well as he does in the morning, he may have something. Safe Combination, a $20,000 claim by a low profile trainer, earned an okay speed figure when a close fifth in his debut and may improve off that effort from a comfortable outside draw under U. Rispoli. In a race in which nothing would surprise, each of the three listed above have a right to run well so include them in your rolling exotics along with anything else that catches your eye.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:43 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Friday, August 27, 2021

August 27, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Devil or Angel; 4-Surprise Boss; 10-Open Til Midnight

Forecast: Open Til Midnight was green in his debut, drifting in and finishing on his wrong lead, but kept to his task in the final furlong and wound up a willing third, beaten less than two lengths, while earning a respectable speed figure. Blinkers are added today, so we’re expecting a bit more professionalism from the son of Midnight Storm in this maiden special weight turf sprint for state-bred juveniles. From his outside draw the J. Ryerson-trained gelding should settle somewhere in the second flight and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Surprise Boss will be making his fifth career start and on pure numbers is strictly the one to beat. Third in the fast, highly-rated race on dirt 15 days ago won by Key Point, the War Dancer colt tries grass for the first time (bred for it) and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll view the switch to talented speed rider R. Santana, Jr. as a positive move. Devil or Angel shows a bullet half mile gate work (:48 1/5, fastest of 43) at Belmont Park earlier this month, and as a son of Shackleford certainly is bred for speed. The barn doesn’t win often with first-timer starters but for protection we’ll use this colt on a ticket or two as a backup.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: X
Single: 3-November Rein

Forecast: November Rein missed by a neck in a promising debut in June at Belmont Park and then produced a significant forward move when graduating by more than five lengths while improving her Beyer speed figure by 10 points the following month at Saratoga. She’s had plenty of time off in between races (six weeks) and her work tab in the interim has been a bit spotty, but we’ll assume the daughter of Street Boss is ready to roll and be a short price in this sprint stakes for state-bred juvenile fillies. The K. Breen-trained filly took early heat and then came away with authority, so today’s extra furlong shouldn’t be an issue.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade:
Use: 5-Yarrow; 7-Barrage

Forecast: Barrage began his career competing for a maiden $16,000 tag (he finished second) but since then the son of War Dancer certainly has improved, finishing a close third in a New York Stallion stakes race sprinting on grass at Belmont Park and then most recently winding up fifth in a similar added money event but earning a good speed figure in defeat. The D. Gargan-trained gelding drops into maiden special weight company today and appears to have found a proper spot while switching to L. Saez. In a field without much speed he’s likely to be on or near the lead throughout. Yarrow displayed some ability when third of 10 in a maiden turf router at Tampa Bay Downs in February but then disappeared. The C. Clement barn has excellent stats with layoff runners and I. Ortiz, Jr. takes the call, so if this sophomore son of Lookin At Lucky shows some improvement in his second start he should be competitive. We’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Barrage.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:47 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Senbei; 5-Montebello; 6-Bourbon’s Hope

Forecast: Montebello failed to change leads but otherwise was quite impressive breaking his maiden at first asking in open company at Del Mar earlier this month while earning a good speed figure. He deserves extra points for having won from the rail and displaying reserve energy under heavy pressure that a lesser colt wouldn’t have found. Today’s extra half-furlong won’t be an issue at all, so if he breaks well and gets his footwork down properly the son of Curlin can handle this New York-bred stakes for B. Baffert. However, there are others in here who appear equally promising. Like Montebello, Senbei won at first asking from the rail, doing so over state-bred competition on a wet track while on the lead with complete authority and earning the same Beyer speed figure (73) as our top pick. The son of Candy Ride must leave from the inside post again but should be quick enough to gain a favorable position and have his chance. Today’s six and one-half furlong distance should be well within his range. Bourbon’s Hope won at first asking at Belmont Park last month like a nice sort, and as a son of Exaggerator should get nothing but better with distance and maturity. J. Rosario stays aboard and should have him doing his best work from the top of the lane to the wire.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:23 ET Grade: C+
Use: 6-Escapewithfriends; 7-Caumsett

Forecast: Caumsett is a seven-race maiden and therefore not one to totally trust but she’s hit the board in her last three starts and is adding blinkers for the first time after displaying a liking for this course and distance when third, beaten less than two lengths, vs. similar foes earlier this month. She’s really not all that much but in a shallow field she’s the top pick by default. Escapewithfriends ran quite well in her debut when overcoming significant early trouble to finish second in a maiden $40,000 sprint at Belmont Park last month but then disappointed in a similar event over a distance of ground earlier this month, a race in which she was claimed by M. Dini. She’s up in class vs. straight maidens today but is back around one corner, and a repeat of her first race could make her dangerous, especially with a clean trip. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved in.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 7-I’m Fine; 8-Bustin Bay

Forecast: This seven furlong first-level allowance affair for state-bred fillies and mares attracted 11 entrants but lacks quality depth. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Bustin Bay makes her first start since being claimed by K. Broberg, and while she’s moving up from a modest $14,000 restricted (nw-3) claimer she’s actually reasonably competitive on speed figures. The barn hits at an excellent 20% with the first-off-the-claim angle and this extended sprint distance is right up her alley, so with regular rider M. Franco staying aboard, the daughter of Bustin Stones could easily step forward and produce a mild surprise. I’m Fine, second in her last three with rising speed figures, is strictly the one to beat. Freshened since March but with an effective late-running style that works well at this distance on this track, the J. Englehart-trained filly shows a steady if unspectacular recent work tab that should have her fit enough.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Betsy Blue; 8-Coffee Bar; 9-Make Mischief

Forecast: Make Mischief may be somewhat suspect at the nine furlong distance of today’s Fleet Indian S. but she’s far more accomplished than the opposition and takes a monumental class drop from graded stakes competition into this New York-bred added money event. She should be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout, with I. Ortiz, Jr. having the option to control the pace flow from his outside draw. Betsy Blue makes her third start in 16 days, but her numbers continue to rise and in her first start around two turns (from a favorable inside post) the daughter of Tonalist should continue to improve and be a strong threat throughout. First or second in seven of eight career starts and exiting an extremely fast, highly-rated race, the L. Rice-trained filly has been a beaten choice in each of her last three outings and therefore isn’t one to trust, but under these conditions must be taken seriously. Coffee Bar can handle the trip, adds blinkers and switches to F. Prat. She was beaten at 2/5 in a first level allowance race over this track and distance earlier this month but has finished in the frame in all five career starts and should at least get a piece of it again today.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:03 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Rinaldi; 3-Graded On a Curve; 8-Mo Ready

Forecast: Rinaldi just won the Forbidden Apple S.-G3 over the local lawn from open company and today faces state-bred foes in this year’s renewal of the West Point S. The Posse gelding will be the controlling speed from his favorable inside draw and given that type of trip he should be extremely difficult to run down over a turf course he practically owns (four wins in five starts). Fresh from earning a career top 102 Beyer speed figure, the H. Bond-trained veteran seems likely to be a short price to continue his winning ways. Graded On a Curve has been away since November but the C. Brown-trained gelding shows a steady series of local drills that should have him fit enough for a barn that hits at 25% with layoff runners. A winner of three of his last four starts before being stopped on, the son of Noble Mission will need some help up front but should make some noise from the quarter pole home. Mo Ready has enough tactical speed to be within range of the leader and was Grade-1 placed vs. 3-year-olds last year, though on pure numbers he’s not fast enough to worry our top pick. Still, the T. Pletcher-trained gelding comes off a solid effort over the local lawn and switches to F. Prat, so he’s not without some kind of look.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Americanrevolution; 5-Bobby Bo

Forecast>: California shipper Bobby Bo is fresh from a maiden win vs. open company at Del Mar and today tackles New York-bred opposition in this year’s renewal of the Albany S. for 3-year-olds. The son of Speightster projects to be the controlling speed and on pure numbers is as fast as any in the field, so with another forward move the B. Baffert-trained colt will have every chance to wire the field under F. Prat. Americanrevolution, winner of the New York Derby at Finger Lakes by seven widening lengths but not beating a whole lot while earning a Beyer speed figure that is identical (87) to the one assigned to Bobby Bo’s recent career top. He’ll enjoy a similar stalking trip today and will have dead aim and every chance to get by Bobby Bo when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Bobby Bo on top.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Classic Lady; 3-Myhartblongstodady; 6-Chocolate Cookie

Forecast: Defending Yaddo H. winner Myhartblongstodady was no factor from a poor draw in the Eatontown S.-G3 at Monmouth Park last time out but returns to New York-bred company today and should produce a significant forward move in a race that could find herself as the controlling speed. Never worse than second in four career starts on grass at Saratoga, the J. Abreu-trained daughter of Scat Daddy is six years old but relatively fresh, having started just 13 times during her career. A healthy recent series of works indicates she’s spot on for a major effort. Classic Lady makes her second start off a layoff and should be fitter and stronger today for the always-potent C. Clement/J. Rosario team. She’s consistently run well over the Saratoga turf course, has a good stalking style, and was third in this race last year. Chocolate Cookie is lightly-raced and steadily improving for T. Pletcher. She’s not where she needs to be on speed figures but earned a career top number last time out and should be capable of stepping forward enough to at least hit the board.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:47 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Tackle; 8-Fast Gordon; 12-Brennan’s War

Forecast: Tackle, away since November and dropping from maiden to maiden-claiming for the first time after joining the M. Maker barn, attracts I. Ortiz, Jr., so we’ll assume he’s fit and ready following a steady series of workouts at Ellis Park. His speed figures from last year are better than par for this level, so if he returns as well as he left the son of Flatter should be able to handle this modest middle distance turf event for New York-bred older horses. Brennan’s War , in the frame in both career starts including a decent runner-up while more than five lengths clear of the rest over this course and distance at this level last month, likely will continue to progress with experience and is the one to fear most. His extreme outside post does him no favors, though. Fast Gordon, nosed out in a similar affair here last month, must be considered a contender, though having just failed at even money he’s probably not one to count on. We’ll use him on a ticket or two but that’s all.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:46 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #11

#6 Inject	Her form can be a bit spotty at times, but has the right kind of running style to land this one from a spying spot. Her best stuff would do the trick here.
#1 Caramel Swirl	She still has some proving to do at the stakes level, but she has shown some pretty sharp talent in a couple of those recent races. Think she's overbet in this spot, but she's a major player.
#3 Pauline's Pearl	Think the cutback to this two-turn 7f trip might work in her favor to launch one rally from off the splits while heading for the far turn. Better here?
Race Summary	Inject gets the slight edge in a race where some of the obvious players make sense, but this one has the perfect style for the local 7-furlong trip and stacks up nicely with these.

Charles Town - Race #12

#9 Restrainedvengence	Price player has run a bit better than the lines look in several of the races on his page, and he has run just fine on the dirt in the past. Overlooked, but in with a chance.
#7 Sleepy Eyes Todd	He comes into this off the April layoff while bringing less imposing form than he did before winning this race last year, but he has knocked heads with some tough customers in the last year and might wake up locally.
#8 Art Collector	Forward player showed some bounce-back form when racing out of the Mott barn for the first time last out, and he has always been a pretty serious type. Overbet?
Race Summary	Restrainedvengence is quick enough to hopefully find a good spot tracking the splits, and he has some sneaky good dirt form that might keep him in the mix with these at a price.

Charles Town - Race #13

#4 V. I. P. Ticket	He's a multiple stakes winner over the course, and he's capable of something much better than he showed last time out. The pace may be fair enough to give him a chance from off the splits.
#9 Muad'dib	He has some pace and an ability to rate a little bit that might serve him well from this higher draw, and this guy has never been beaten or seriously threatened in six lifetime starts. He's got plenty of proving to do on class as he meets some reliable stakes types for the first time.
#1 North Atlantic	He has a little bit of off-the-pace versatility, but he has been more of an underneath player with this kind of company in his recent stakes starts. Passes some late for a piece?
Race Summary	V. I. P. Ticket needs to get back to his better form after a couple of dull tries, but he might offer a playable price for a late thrill.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:47 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3

#3 HASHTAGMADEYALOOK	Can reward loyal backers on drop, strong value play.
#6 STOP RESISTIN	Five wins and top money-earner in field this year.
#7 HENDERSON SEELSTER	Led to stretch the last two times he stayed on stride.
Race Summary	Hashtagmadeyalook chased the top pair around the track and settled for third two starts back, broke stride as the favorite from post 6 last week, now takes a magnified class drop against mostly unproven types at this level. He is a strong play if 7-2 morning-line odds stick. Bet on him to win and place.

Scioto Downs - Race #1

#1 SWEET SALLY SUE	Brushed to command, came up short, can be speed from the rail.
#7 STAY GOLD	Sustained first-over rally to finish second, gets ideal set-up.
#6 HOT GOSSIP	First or second in 8 of 15 starts this year against similar rivals.
Race Summary	Sweet Sally Sue brushed past the favorites to take a clear lead but got caught by a trio of deep closers. She can be part of the early mix from the rail and should be in the hunt the entire way. Play 1-6 and 1-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#8 ANGRY EYES	Furious wide rally at 30-1, figures tough on drop with duplicate.
#9 INTENSE JUSTICE	Second after two of faves broke stride, can use speed well despite post.
#2 STORMONT VENTNOR	Had live pace and cover but lacked stretch kick as the fave.
Race Summary	Angry Eyes, far back at the top of the stretch, closed with a flourish while widest and continued strong on the gallop out. She gets class relief and is today's Best Bet for her second start off a six-week layoff. Play a 8/1,2,9/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:48 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#3 Miss Flawless	Drops out of a tougher race and fits much better here; tracked early and then gave way going long. She can get back to good form at this price.
#1 Runway Dreamer	Was claimed in her last two -- most recently by Miller -- and, wihle improving position, didn't make up much ground. Can probably be closer to the pace today.
#5 Zabava	Was claimed last out by Mulhall and in that one closed willingly and lost a three-horse photo; has a good late move but also can adjust to pace.
Race Summary	Miss Flawless was in over her head last out and has found a spot here in which she should improve; fits with these and can wake up with a big effort.

Del Mar - Race #5

#4 Good Bye Putin	Was fourth at a decent level two back and can probably be a factor in the late going here.
#6 Steak and Cheese	Was fourth last time in his first vs. winners; broke his maiden for a tag two back and can be very competitive in this spot.
#2 Avigale	Was a maiden special winner at Churchill and was off for two years; thus far he hasn't panned out in two this year in California but has been in with much tougher. Could wake up here.
Race Summary	Good Bye Putin has faced decent company and is in a good spot for a late run in this one; well-spotted and can get his second win.

Del Mar - Race #6

#1 Paige Anne	Held third vs. top-flight company in the G1 Hirsch last out and can dig in for the win in this non-graded event.
#2 Miss Stormy D	Has good speed and can be in the mix from the outset; was third in the G2 Santa Maria two back.
#3 Miss Bigly	Was second in two stakes races at Thistledown and Churchill; faces tougher company today.
Race Summary	Paige Anne usually makes a good run vs. any she faces and is well-spotted for this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:49 AM

Gulfstream Stats: Gonzalez Hits .500

August 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

A $289,210 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover welcomes horseplayers back Friday for the 3-day racing week, featuring a $450,000-guaranteed pool … The second round of the annual Florida Sire Stakes will be featured Saturday with the $200,000 Affirmed and Susan’s Girl divisions challenging 2-year-olds over 7 furlongs … Dynamic One, defeated in 2 maiden races during the Championship Meet and most recently winner of Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes, is among the probables for Saturday’s Grade 1 Travers at the Spa for Todd Pletcher … Preakness and Pegasus World Cup-placed Jesus’ Team will be sidelined 90 days with an ankle chip … Renovations continue on schedule for a new, third racing surface, Tapeta, at Gulfstream and it’s scheduled to be unveiled in September.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each showing a 30% win rate or higher.

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
Best Speed Last 3
Jockey Current Year

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Carlos David had a 6: 2-2-0 week that was topped by a $9 winner. All 4 of his exacta finishers had different riders.

-- Trainer Joe Orseno went 7: 2-1-1 and produced a $1.99 ROI for every $1 bet behind $8 and $19 winners. He also had a 31-1 shot light the bottom of the trifecta.

-- Trainer Gilberto Zerpa went 1-for-2 on limited strikes, but increased his record to 12-for-21 in the exacta (6 wins) since July 30.

-- Jockey Edgard Zayas was on point at 23: 6-2-4 with a $1.22 ROI for every $1 bet. He won for 5 different trainers, doubling up with Saffie Joseph Jr. from 5 tandem bids.

-- Jockey Edwin Gonzalez made the most of limited attempts with an 8: 4-0-0 record that flexed with $6, $8, $11 and $15 triumphs. He won for 4 different barns.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 06:49 AM

AI Picks: Golden Gate Pick 4 Free Bet | Friday, Aug. 27

August 26, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s opening day at Golden Gate Fields on Friday, and your friends at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering a free $10 bet on the late pick four.

To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.

We’ve included the track’s official morning line odds for each runner.

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Golden Gate Fields // Race 4 // 6:16 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile (turf)

#4 Many Roses (5-2) // 30%W

#1 Hot Sean (9-2) // 23%W

#5 Iz Invincible (5-1) // 16%W

#6 Start a Runnin (3-1) // 12%W

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Golden Gate Fields // Race 5 // 6:44 pm ET // claiming // 5-1/2 furlongs

#5 Pearl Dragon (4-1) // 25%W

#3 Ramoncita Light (9-2) // 14%W

#7 Gardees World (30-1) // 12%W

#2 Thrill’s Legacy (5-2) // 12%W

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Golden Gate Fields // Race 6 // 7:15 pm ET // maiden // 5-1/2 furlongs

#7 Striking Sermon (9-2) // 19%W

#2 Back On the Street (5-1) // 18%W

#5 Lady Crocker (8-1) // 17%W

#1 Christmas Diamond (3-1) // 13%W

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Golden Gate Fields // Race 7 // 7:45 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile

#3 Single Barrel (5-2) // 25%W

#8 Darcee’s Lovi Dovi (9-2) // 17%W

#2 Dalius (6-1) // 14%W

#7 Sleep Over (15-1) // 14%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 10:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 1	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 1-2) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Maiden Special • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 55 • Purse: $29,700 • Post: 5:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BRANDYURAFINEGIRL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BRANDYURAFINEGIRL: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	BRANDYURAFINEGIRL	3/5	4/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BRANDYURAFINEGIRL	5	3/5	Alternator/Stalker	63	52	71.6	54.3	52.3
1	WOODSONG'S CASTLE	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	41	41	19.2	33.8	28.3
3	EMPIRE G	3	8/1	Trailer	0	0	35.1	31.3	25.8
2	MAEVE O'FLAHERTY	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	8.5	1.5

Unknown Running Style: DOWN UNDER THUNDER (12/1) [Jockey: Almodovar Gerald - Trainer: Calhoun Amanda], LADY CINCO DE MAYO (3/1) [Jockey: Cruz Angel - Trainer: Johnson Dewayne C], SIGNS OF JEALOUSY (12/1) [Jockey: Peltroche Fredy - Trainer: Craig Jr L

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 10:10 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque

Albuquerque - Race 6	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 81 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 6:05P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED TWO (2) YEAR OLD QUARTER HORSES), THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2021 NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR QUARTER HORSE FUTURITY. ($1,000.00 TO ENTER TRIALS). WEIGHT 124 LBS. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE ACCEPTED ON OR BEFORE THE ENTRY DATE FOR THE TRIALS IN THE AMOUNT OF $15,000.00, WHICH INCLUDES ALL FEES. TRIALS TO BE RUN ON FRIDAY AUGUST 27, 2021 AND FINALS (RG-3) TO BE RUN ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 19, 2021.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * QUEEN CHARLIZE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DAD DIES WISH: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MA PAYOLA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rati ng.
3	QUEEN CHARLIZE	8/1	9/2
1	DADDIES WISH	5/2	9/2
6	MA PAYOLA	4/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DADDIES WISH	1	5/2	Average	84	81	4.6	0.0	0.0
2	FS EYE MAXX	2	6/1	Average	64	58	4.9	0.0	0.0
3	QUEEN CHARLIZE	3	8/1	Fast	79	79	1.9	0.0	0.0
4	WORKSLIKAFLASH	4	20/1	Slow	0	0	8.0	0.0	0.0
5	CORONA A CHICKS	5	10/1	Slow	0	0	6.8	0.0	0.0
6	MA PAYOLA	6	4/1	Fast	83	70	2.3	0.0	0.0
7	CLASSY MOON	7	10/1	Fast	0	0	2.7	0.0	0.0
8	HS GOLDEN EAGLE	8	3/1	Average	78	65	4.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: HANDSOME AND RED (15/1) [Jockey: Baca Benito Jude - Trainer: Baca Bernard B].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 10:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $85000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT FIVE AND ONE HALF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 I'M PERFECT TOO 2/1
# 7 CAUMSETT 5/2
# 5 BAUDI MOOVAN 6/1

I'M PERFECT TOO looks respectable to best this field. She should definitely be considered given the very strong speed figs. Competitive gamble today with second time Lasix. Albertrani has a solid 25 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. CAUMSETT - Has run well when racing a turf sprint race. With Ortiz uptop her, this filly will probably be able to break out sharply here. BAUDI MOOVAN - Bettors should probably note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 10:33 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 4:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,700 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 ELITE SONG (ML=8/1)
#6 JUNGLE GODDESS (ML=5/2)
#5 BRING DA FUDGE (ML=3/1)

ELITE SONG - Has unearthed a soft spot in today's event. JUNGLE GODDESS - This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today. BRING DA FUDGE - Husbands rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back this time. I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp race within the last month. Just check out her recent speed fig, 68. That one fits in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SILENT DIXIE (ML=2/1), #3 LEAVE IT WITH ME (ML=6/1),

SILENT DIXIE - Never really did much at all in the last race on July 25th. Hard to play in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 ELITE SONG is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6] Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 10:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 NO OBLIGATION 9/5
# 1 PLATINUM MAC 4/1
# 6 NOT NOW RAND 7/2

I think NO OBLIGATION is a decent choice. He must be given a chance given the very good speed numbers. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. He looks solid in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. PLATINUM MAC - Looks decent versus this group and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. Helmbrecht has this gelding running well and is a strong selection based on the very strong speed figures posted in sprint races recently. NOT NOW RAND - The Equibase Speed Figure of 59 from his last contest looks formidable in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-27-2021, 10:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,800 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#3 RICHIE GOES GLOBAL (ML=5/1)
#1 ELECTRIC HEAT (ML=9/2)

RICHIE GOES GLOBAL - Gonzalez and Vazquez perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +100 return on investment for a jockey and trainer. This horse broke from the outside at Parx Racing last time out, racing 1 mile 70 yards, but is getting a low post in this race, which should help his chances today. ELECTRIC HEAT - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Bobadilla.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 VISHNU (ML=5/2), #6 RINGLE BELLE (ML=3/1), #2 ROYAL'S INVASION (ML=7/2),

VISHNU - This thoroughbred likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. RINGLE BELLE - Showed very little in the last race. Really can't expect any change today. This questionable contender ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's event running that fig. ROYAL'S INVASION - This gelding won last time, but probably won't do it today versus tougher competition. Substandard rating last time around the track at Penn National at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 RICHIE GOES GLOBAL to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip