Saturday 8/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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PITBULL BARKING NCAAF

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:40 am

Nebraska -7 +100 No Illinois (1:00 PM)
Southern Utah vs. San Jose State OVER 56.5 -110 (10:00 PM)

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Paul Leiner

CFB & MLB Picks 8/28"

100* Yankees -120
100* Hawaii +17.5
100* Over 58.5 New Mex St/UTEP

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NCAAF
Dunkel





Saturday, August 28

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NCAAF

Week 0

Saturday, August 28

Nebraska @ Illinois
— Last four years, Nebraska is 16-28 SU
— Cornhuskers’ last bowl game was five years ago.
— Nebraska has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Cornhuskers have 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nebraska’s QB is making his 30th career start.
— Under Frost, Cornhuskers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.

— Illinois has had nine losing seasons in a row.
— New coach this year is Bielema, ex-Wisconsin/Arkansas coach.
— Illinois has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Illini have 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Last six years, Illinois is 9-16 ATS as a home underdog.
— Bielema is 26-23-1 ATS as an underdog. 11-10 as a home dog.

— Nebraska won six of last eight series games.
— Five of those six wins were by 15+ points.
— Huskers won 42-38/28-6 in last two visits to Illinois.
— Last three years, Illinois ran for 285-221-383 yards vs Nebraska.

UConn @ Fresno State
— UConn didn’t play last year, hard team to handicap.
— Huskies were 9-39 SU from 2016-19.
— UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Huskies have 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UConn has a QB with 6 starts; unsure who the starter will be.
— Huskies are 2-9 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs.

— Fresno was 3-3 LY, giving up 34+ points in all the losses.
— Bulldogs went 7-11 last two years; in 2017-18, they were 22-6
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Washington transfer Haener (6 starts) is new starting QB.
— Last two years, Bulldogs were 4-8 ATS as favorites, 2-5 at home.

— These teams haven’t met the last 20 years.

Hawai’i @ UCLA
— Last three years, Hawai’i is 23-15 SU.
— Rainbows went bowling last three years, winning last two.
— Hawai’i has 7 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Rainbows have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawai’i’s soph QB has started 13 games.
— Last four years, Rainbows are 6-11 ATS as road underdogs.

— Three years under Kelly, UCLA is 10-19 SU.
— Bruins’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win was 2014.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCLA hosts LSU next week; will they be looking ahead?

— UCLA (-24) waxed Hawai’i 56-23 in last meeting, four years ago.

Texas-El Paso (3-4) @ New Mexico State
— UTEP has had six losing seasons in a row.
— Three years under Dimel, Miners are 5-27 SU.
— Miners have 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— UTEP has 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UTEP’s soph QB has 7 career starts.
— Last 10 years, UTEP is 1-1-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Last time Miners were a road favorite? 2015.

— New Mexico State played two I-AA games LY and lost one.
— Last three years, NM State is 6-20 SU.
— NM State has 3 starters back on offense, zero on defense- not good.
— Aggies have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
— NM State’s junior QB is making his 3rd career start.
— Aggies are 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.

— NM State won/covered last three series games.
— Miners lost 44-35/41-14 in last two trips two Las Cruces.
— Favorites are 6-0-2 ATS last eight series games.

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NCAAF
Week 0

Trend Report

Saturday, August 28

Nebraska @ Illinois
Nebraska
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games on the road
Nebraska is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Illinois
Illinois
Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Illinois is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

Connecticut @ Fresno State
Connecticut
Connecticut is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games
Connecticut is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Fresno State
Fresno State is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games at home

Hawaii @ California-Los Angeles
Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 6 games
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of California-Los Angeles's last 6 games at home
California-Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Texas El Paso @ New Mexico State
Texas El Paso
Texas El Paso is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Mexico State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State's last 5 games at home

Southern Utah @ San Jose State
Southern Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games
San Jose State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

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MLB

Saturday, August 28

Trend Report

Boston @ Cleveland
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

NY Yankees @ Oakland
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oakland
Oakland is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Oakland is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing NY Yankees

Kansas City @ Seattle
Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Arizona @ Philadelphia
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games

Toronto @ Detroit
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

Cincinnati @ Miami
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay

Houston @ Texas
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas
Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
St. Louis
St. Louis is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home

Washington @ NY Mets
Washington
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Washington's last 24 games
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Mets's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games at home

Chi Cubs @ Chi White Sox
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs

Milwaukee @ Minnesota
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Milwaukee is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

San Francisco @ Atlanta
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

San Diego @ LA Angels
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing San Diego
LA Angels is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Diego

Colorado @ LA Dodgers
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Colorado

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MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, August 28

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Cappers Access

Sat (NCAAF) Nebraska
Sat (NCAAF) Hawaii
Sat (NCAAF) UTEP
Sat (NFL) Bears

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Brandon Lee

Aug 28 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Nebraska vs Illinois
Play on: Nebraska -6½ -113 at pinnacle

FREE PICK - Nebraska Cornhuskers -6.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 299
I just can't help myself here with Nebraska laying less than a touchdown at -6.5 (I would take the -6.5 now, as this could go back to -7 before kickoff and -6.5 is way better than waiting to see if you get -6).
It's now or never for Scott Forst and his staff to get this Cornhuskers team at least playing some competitive football. No one thought Nebraska was going to 12-20 in the first 3 years under Frost. He gets a lot of blame for the poor record, but I also think some of the blame needs to fall on previous head coach Mike Riley.
Frost just didn't have the guys to compete in a conference like the Big Ten. I'm not saying they are going to shock everyone and win the Big Ten West, but I feel pretty good about this being the best team Frost has fielded in what is now his 4th year. The offense should be better in year two under OC Matt Lubick and the defense brings back 10 starters.
As for Illinois, they got 18 starters back, but are in the first year under new head coach Bret Bielema. No question Bielema has a great track record in the Big Ten, but you have to take into consideration the talent he's inheriting and that talent being recruited to play different schemes on both sides of the ball. Bielema went just 3-9 in his first year at Arkansas, before going 7-8, 8-5 and 7-6 in his next 3 seasons.
Another huge factor here for me is revenge. Illinois went into Lincoln and embarrassed Nebraska 41-23 last year. Looking back, it feels like that was a bit of a trap game, as the Cornhuskers were off an upset win against Penn State and had a game at Iowa on deck, who is their biggest rival in the Big Ten. Nebraska has a game against Fordham on deck. All their attention will be on this game.
I also love the fact that because of all the allegations with Frost and the team having secret meetings during Covid, this team will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Give me Nebraska -6.5!

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Jimmy Boyd

Aug 28 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Nebraska vs Illinois
Play on: UNDER 53½ -110

1* Free Pick on Nebraska/Illinois under 53½ -110

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Cole Faxon

Aug 28 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Nebraska vs Illinois
Play on: UNDER 53½ -110

FREE PLAY on Nebraska/Illinois under 53½ -110

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Claiming $20,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 2:45P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; , 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SICILIA CONNIE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SICILIA CONNIE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GLAMORIZED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	SICILIA CONNIE	4/5	6/5
2	GLAMORIZED	3/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LIMAGE	3	10/1	Stalker	74	68	54.6	60.8	52.3
2	GLAMORIZED	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	87	75.0	73.0	68.0
1	SICILIA CONNIE	1	4/5	Trailer	97	91	84.0	92.2	89.7
4	STAKES ON A PLANE	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	88	64.5	71.6	64.6
5	WICKED TITLE	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	66	60.7	55.2	48.2

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 4F, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR ALBERTA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FIVE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SS FROSTY 5/1
# 5 SASSES LOKI 3/1
# 4 WILT (T) 4/1

SS FROSTY is my choice. Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 69. With a formidable 66 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. SASSES LOKI - Could best this group here, showing competitive figs of late. Rocha ought to be able to get this gelding to break out quickly for this race. WILT (T) - Has been racing admirably and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. Will almost certainly compete well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Emerald Downs - Race #3 - Post: 7:22pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,580 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#4 HAVARTI GOLD (ML=8/1)
#6 CELINAS BLUE BIRD (ML=5/1)
#5 LARSEN BAY (ML=4/1)


HAVARTI GOLD - This jockey and handler's horses have been generating a beneficial return on investment. I like that this first-timer has been working over the Emerald Downs oval and makes his debut here today. Gets help from Moore with the addition of Lasix. CELINAS BLUE BIRD - Here is an appropriate handicapping angle that I've used many times before. Play a filly (like this one) getting Lasix for the 2nd time. LARSEN BAY - When this jock and trainer team up you have to take a look. Mawing and Belvoir have been wonderful together. Got an unlucky trip his first time out. Hitting the track today, should do better if he stays out of any issues. Got some betting action in maiden trip on the track on August 14th at Emerald Downs, but finished fourth. Has a shot in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 COASTAL QUEEN (ML=3/1), #3 FLYIN BY (ML=7/2), #2 COASTAL CAT (ML=9/2),

COASTAL QUEEN - Common speed fig in the last race at Emerald Downs at 5 furlongs. Don't believe this questionable contender will improve too much in today's event. FLYIN BY - Morning line odds of 7/2 make this thoroughbred a pass by my examination. COASTAL CAT - No value on this horse at the likely odds of 9/2.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 HAVARTI GOLD on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Timonium

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 54

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 CORAL SUMMER 3/1
# 5 HICKORY MADE 3/1
# 4 MAGIC MELODY 6/1

I have to support CORAL SUMMER here. This lot is much softer than the last one she faced. The average class rating alone makes this one a contender. Dangelo has well above average dividends at this distance/surface. HICKORY MADE - Hiraldo will probably be able to get this mare to break out quickly in this contest. Earned a strong speed rating last time out. MAGIC MELODY - Must be given consideration - I like the figs from the last competition.