Wednesday 9/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 06:59 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, September 1, 2021

September 1, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Use: No Play/Pass

Forecast: The first race is carded for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Mubarmaj

Forecast: In a race that probably should be left alone, Mubarmaj projects as a short- priced favorite after beating $20,000 claiming foes in late July before being returned to his owners after a voided claim. Given the issues this horse has had in the past, this drop to the $12,500 level seems logical. The T. Pletcher-trained son of Curlin has worked twice in the last month in a pattern that includes a gap of 19 days, so it’s anybody’s guess if he has at least one good one left, though with five wins from nine starts (and victorious in three of his last four) he has a history of performing when it matters. You can use him as a rolling exotic single or better yet simply sit it out.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Static Fire; 6-Sweet Surprise

Forecast: This turf sprint for juvenile fillies is restricted to those that brought $45,000 or less at auction in their most recent sale. Though we doubt she’s any kind of world beater, Static Fire has shown enough in the a.m. to be considered a major player following a series of better than average workouts, including a team drill in :47 flat Aug. 22 that ranked as the second fastest of 152 for the distance. If she leaves running from the rail, the daughter of Speightster seems likely to be forwardly placed in a race that should produce a soft opening quarter. Sweet Surprise lacked early speed, responded when set down and finished with interest (and galloped out well) in her debut over this course and distance vs. similar last month and has every right to improve with that bit of experience behind her. J. Rosario got to know her, rides her back, and should have her doing her best work once again from the quarter pole home. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sun Summers; 6-In a Hurry

Forecast: Sun Summers is winless in five starts this year but in her third start in her current form cycle and with solid recent speed figures the M. Maker-trained mare could break through in a below average second level allowance/optional claiming turf affair for fillies and mares. Her best races have come when she’s able to lay fairly close to a modest pace, and today’s pace flow projects to compliment her style. The daughter of Broken Vow switches to J. Ortiz and may be capable of grinding out a win close home. In a Hurry, freshened since mid-June, is strictly the one to beat. Shug’s filly earned a career top speed figure when second at this condition last time out, has done well in the a.m. in recent weeks, and should run at least as well if not a bit better today with the switch to J. Rosario. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread a bit deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Speed Effect; 5-Lokoya Road

Forecast: Speed Effect may have been a bit rusty when flashing good speed but then fading late in his first start in 18 months when facing restricted (nw-2) $25,000 sprinters over seven furlongs in late July. However, with that tightener behind him, the B. Levine-trained gelding stretches out to nine furlongs, drops to the $16,000 level, and surely will employ gate-to-wire tactics. His sole victory -albeit in an off-the-turf maiden claimer, shows what he’s capable of when he’s able to be the controlling speed. Also, he’s reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., so there are several factors in his favor. Lokoya Road returns to his claim level and is a strong fit on speed figures, so while the Quality Road gelding always has been a one-paced grinder this is a field with a projected race flow that should bring out his best. We’ll prefer Speed Effect on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Flipping Fun; 6-Big Little Risk

Forecast: Maiden-claiming state bred older horses sprint six furlongs in a pedestrian affair in which Flipping Fun, winless in 19 starts, might be the one to beat. It’s that kind of race. After finishing second at this level in his last two starts - he hit the front in mid-stretch but couldn’t hang on in his most recent start - the son of Central Banker surely will get plenty of play again, but his numbers have stagnated and the barn doesn’t win very often, so he’s hardly the type to take a short price on. Perhaps a tad more interesting is Big Little Risk, third in the same race Flipping Fun exits but with more room to improve in what will be just his sixth career outing. The son of Big Brown retains Luis Saez and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jilly’s a Hot Mess; 2-Athena Dancer; 9-Social Whirl

Forecast: The first leg of the late pick-4 is a challenging affair for first-level allowance New York-bred fillies and mares sprinting on grass. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough. Jill’s a Hot Mess was an extra game winner over this course and distance last month vs. starter’s allowance foes when earning a career top speed figure in her first start since joining the L. Rice barn. Nothing much more will be needed to produce a repeat score, especially if she leaves cleanly from the rail and can secure her preferred pace forcing/stalking trip. First or second in seven of 14 career starts, the daughter of Laoban generally runs her rest when properly spotted and she certainly appears to be in the right place today. Athena Dancer adds Lasix for the first time in her second outing off a long layoff and seems likely to produce a significant forward move after finishing fourth (beaten less than three lengths) in a similar grass dash last month. The concern is the barn (2-for-39 this meeting) and the filly’s lack of tactical speed, but with some help up front and good racing luck the daughter of War Dancer should be heard from late. Social Whirl earned a competitive speed figure when winning a softer restricted (nw-2) $40,000 seller here last time out, and the lightly-raced daughter of Freud can be a strong fit in this league with another forward move. Regular rider J. Castellano apparently has opted for Kreesa La Wrote (another filly he rode to victory last time out) but I. Ortiz, Jr. picks up the call on the T. Morley-trained ‘Whirl, so we’ll live with that.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Runnin’ Ray; 6-Vindictive

Forecast<: Runnin’ Ray seeks his third straight win while moving from starter’s company into an entry-level allowance race but based on the speed figures earned in his two recent victories (including a game score vs. next-out winner Winter Pool) the J. Sharp-trained gelding looks capable of extending his streak. The Street Sense gelding could find himself as the controlling speed, though he doesn’t need the lead to win, and while it’s puzzling that L. Saez jumps off to pilot the T. Pletcher-trained Texas Swing, ‘Ray picks up J. Ortiz, so he’ll be in good enough hands. The lightly-raced and promising Vindictive may be the one to fear most. The son of Uncle Mop earned a giant speed figure when graduating over this track and distance in late July in just his second career start, pressing a solid pace and then finding more under severe pressure to graduate by a head from Pipeline, with pair six lengths clear of the rest. A similar effort today certainly could produce a repeat score despite class hike. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a very slight preference on top to Runnin’ Ray.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Limited Liability; 4-Portfolio Company

Forecast>: A couple of impressive first-out winning two-year-old colts by Kitten’s Joy square off in this year’s renewal of the With Anticipation S. with little to separate them, as illustrated by the one point edge on the Beyer speed figures owned by Limited Liability over Portfolio Company. The former ran like a seasoned pro when producing a visually pleasing late kick to graduate in late July at nearly 7-1, indicating that perhaps Shug’s colt ran better than he had trained. Since then, though, the homebred colt has looked quite good in the a.m. while breezing easily and relaxed, and clearly is moving in the proper direction. He’ll be tough right back. Portfolio Company was expected to win his race (he was 6/5) after tipping his hand in the morning and got the money despite being a bit keen in the early stages while always within range of the leader. The C. Brown-trained colt struck the front entering the lane and held sway in a stylish performance, and since then has trained quite well – somewhat surprisingly on dirt - so he should run at least as well if not better today. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, and while Portfolio Company might be the more naturally gifted of the two, Limited Liability may be a bit more advanced mentally. Tough call.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Acushla; 2-Tapple Cider; 10-La Victoria

Forecast: The finale is a New York-bred maiden middle distance turf event for older fillies and mares. La Victoria lost a tough photo against a similar group in an off-the-grass muddy track event here in late July and if she can duplicate that type of effort on turf the lightly-raced daughter of Tapit should be capable of graduating. The pace should be moderate at best, so we’re expecting J. Rosario to have her on or near the lead throughout. Acushla, fourth in both of her starts, returns after 14 weeks on the shelf while picking up L. Saez, and if she can get out of the gate cleanly and secure a reasonable mid-pack position the daughter of Tiznow should be dangerous from the quarter pole home. Tapple Cider may finally get her chance to run on the lawn after exiting a pair of wet track races that were transferred to the main track. She’s favorably drawn inside and projects to be forwardly placed throughout.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 07:04 AM

AI Picks: Saratoga $161K Pick 6 Carryover | Wed., Sep. 1

September 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saratoga’s final week of the season kicks off Wednesday with more than $161,000 in the pick six carryover. The $1 minimum wager has no single-ticket provision, so it’s a traditional carryover that spans Races 5-10 on the card. To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.

We’ve included the track’s official morning line odds for each runner.

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Saratoga // Race 5 // 3:21 pm ET // claiming // 1-1/8 miles

#5 Lokoya Road (9-5) // 31%W
#2 Speed Effect (5-2) // 16%W
#4 Chase Tracker (6-1) // 14%W
#3 Breaking Stones (8-1) // 13%W

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Saratoga // Race 6 // 3:55 pm ET // maiden claiming // 6 furlongs

#4 Flipping Fun (4-1) // 27%W
#2 Brew Pub (7-2) // 15%W
#3 Oliver’s Fortune (15-1) // 11%W
#9 Freudian Fate (4-1) // 11%W

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Saratoga // Race 7 // 4:29 pm ET // allowance // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#9 Social Whirl (7-2) // 15%W
#1 Jill’s a Hot Mess (9-2) // 12%W
#2 Athena Dancer (10-1) // 11%W
#13 Herald Angel (12-1) // 11%W

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Saratoga // Race 8 // 5:05 pm ET // allowance // 1-1/8 miles

#3 Runnin’ Ray (2-1) // 28%W
#1 Mr. Tip (5-1) // 15%W
#6 Vindictive (9-5) // 13%W
#4 Texas Swing (6-1) // 12%W

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Saratoga // Race 9 // 5:39 pm ET // Grade 3 $150,000 With Anticipation Stakes // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#1 Limited Liability (7-5) // 30%W
#4 Portfolio Company (9-5) // 20%W
#6 Coinage (6-1) // 17%W
#3 Gooch Go Bragh (4-1) // 14%W

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Saratoga // Race 10 // 6:13 pm ET // maiden special weight // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#1 Acushla (7-2) // 30%W
#10 La Victoria (9-2) // 13%W
#9 Vivazano (6-1) // 11%W
#2 Tapple Cider (6-1) // 9%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 07:07 AM

Golden Gate 5 Fast Facts | Aug. 31-Sept. 6

August 31, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Schedule:
Friday-Monday (Labor Day)

Carryovers:
$4,465 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot
$3,224 // Super High 5

Feature Race:
$50,000 Rolling Green // 3-year-olds and older, turf // Monday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):
Last 3 Race Class (39%, +$26.20)
Best Speed Distance (32%, +$3.60)
Days Since Last Race (23%, +18.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: William Delia // last week 2-4 (50%, $2.65 ROI) // wins at 4-1, 9-2, added third at 10-1
T: Tim McCanna // last week 2-5 (40%, $2.18 ROI) // claiming sprint winners at 5-1, 7-2
T: Andy Mathis // last week 2-3 (67%, $1.60 ROI) // all 3 starters were favorites
J: Assael Espinoza // last week 4-10 (40%, $2.19 ROI) // all 4 wins at 5-1/2 furlongs or less
J: Evin Roman // last week 4-15 (26%, $1.21 ROI) // wins at 7-2, 7-2, 5-1

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 07:07 AM

Gulfstream 5 Fast Facts | Aug. 31-Sep. 6

August 31, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Schedule:
Friday-Monday (Labor Day)

Carryovers:
$408,256 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($600,000-guaranteed pool Friday)
$6,950 // Super High 5

Feature Race(s):
$75,000 Miss Gracie 3-year-old fillies, turf // Saturday
$75,000 Bear’s Den // 3-year-olds, turf // Monday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (43%, +$29.40)
Speed Last Race (42%, +$32.80)
Best Lifetime Speed (36%, +$49.00)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Jesus Rios // last week 4-13 (31%, $3.52 ROI) // wins at 7-1, 10-1, 21-1 // 3 wins 1-turn dirt
J: Edgard Zayas // last week 6-21 ($29%, $1.04 ROI) // wins at 4-1, 6-1; 2nd at 18-1
T: Eddie Plesa // last week 3-8 (38%, $1.79 ROI) // 4-1, 6-1 maiden breakers
T: Steve Dwoskin // last week 2-2 (100%, $2.40 ROI) // 0-5 in August prior
T: Rodolfo Garcia // last week 2-3 (67%, $2.57 ROI) // last 6 starters have 3 wins, 2 seconds since Aug. 21

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 07:08 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#3 Resist the Devil	A couple of pace players might be honest enough to set things up for this one to finish from a bit off the pace, and her recent sprint tries here stack up very well in this spot.
#7 Society Boy	Forward player has given away ground in the stretch call of all four career races, but he's still bringing competitive running lines to this one. This draw near the outside might allow him to prompt the early splits and press past.
#2 Punx	He took cash in his debut when facing just four others, and he was well beaten in that spot. Think he's capable of something better, but he is also likely to have his hands full early if he wants to have a go for it after another sharp work.
Race Summary	Resist the Devil's two best career races came going short here, so the cutback might have him ready for something better in a spot where the race flow might slightly work in his favor.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#1 Jean V's Legacy	She has been more tactical since adding blinkers, and she looks likely to have a run from the fence right out of the gate. A couple of stretchout types might complicate her trip, but she also has the ability to ration her pace just a touch.
#5 Tappingintosuccess	Her lone route try produced a nice maiden win, and a similar sort of press-and-pounce trip might be waiting for her again today. Think she's probably a bit overbet.
#6 Gray Royality	There is enough pedigree for the move around two turns on the local footing while finding a spot where she offers a bit of intrigue at a price.
Race Summary	Jean V's Legacy should be tough to get around in this spot while bringing early pace as a weapon, but her slight rating gear makes her even tougher, as it gives her rider an out if an early battle develops.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#4 Lexinator	She is twice stakes placed over the local footing, so she should appreciate the drop back in with this kind of allowance crew. Price may not be much, but she should hit hard in a race with a very interesting top pair.
#3 Aug Lutes	Filly makes her 3yo debut with a couple of razor-sharp wins over synthetic footing in her 2yo season, and she is a high-upside type with just two races under her belt. If she came forward into this later part of her 3yo season -- watch out.
#1 Pepper	She almost always runs her race, but this feels like the type of spot in which she is going to find one or two of them just a bit too tough. Reliable player most likely lands underneath.
Race Summary	Lexinator gets class relief out of stakes company, and she's the clear one to beat here while Aug Lutes is one to watch in her 3-year-old debut.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 07:09 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Hoosier Park - Race #1

#3 TNT LADY	Advanced steadily in well-bet debut, moves outside in for trainer-driver.
#9 ALLY ALLY IN FREE	Led long way in back-to-back starts prior to breaking stride in latest.
#6 CHAKE	Stayed flat, led, held third, tries to reward loyal backers.
Race Summary	TNT Lady came out before the half, sustained a first-over run to the 1/8th pole and tired late in a solid debut from post 8. She missed a week sick but remains a major threat from a better post. Play 3-6 and 3-9 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#2 MOONWARDS HANOVER	Can upstage in-the-money finishes from up close to the pace.
#3 MISTER INDIANA	Won back-to-back races at odds-on, switches barns again.
#1 LITTLE ADMIRAL	Runs well from inner starting spots, gets class relief.
Race Summary	Moonwards Hanover, in the money in 8 of 17 this year, chased the favorites through a :55.1 back half and finished third in the same spot. He can be forwardly placed in this field and is a tempting 6-1 on the morning line. Play a 1-2-3 exacta box.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #8

#6 SUGAR BOWL	Made last-to-2nd move against track bias in her debut.
#4 EAGER TO PLEASE	Second in split race that timed 1-3/5 seconds faster.
#5 MEN ARE TALKING	Debuts for 19-percent barn off pair of useful qualifiers.
Race Summary	Sugar Bowl followed the move of the winning favorite and finished second in a well-bet debut on a speed-favoring strip. No reason to think she won't run well again. Play 6-4 and 6-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 07:09 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #4

#3 Choate Bridge	Came up empty in a stakes at Indiana Grand last out but has performed well at this level at various tracks; good stalker, closer.
#4 Sun Summers	Was an even third in a similar race last time, which marked her first of the current Saratoga campaign; can improve in her return.
#6 In a Hurry	Was second early, dropped back, and then came on again for second in her latest, which came at Belmont; could be a factor in her first off a short vacation.
Race Summary	Choate Bridge didn't care for stakes company but has been a factor in many at this level; can secure a favorable trip.

Saratoga - Race #7

#9 Social Whirl	Make a strong last move in fast time last out and much up a notch in class; seeks her third straight and will be tough to deny.
#10 Show Me the Honey	Has been getting outrun in stakes races and should find this chance in class to her liking; can make a late move vs. these.
#1 Jill's a Hot Mess	Was up in time in two of her last three and returns to state-bred company.
Race Summary	Social Whirl has figured out these turf sprints and can get a third straight win; should be able to handle the step up in class.

Saratoga - Race #9

#6 Coinage	Comes off a third vs. New York-bred stakes company and is more suited for running long on the turf; capable of a big effort at a good price.
#4 Portfolio Company	Was close up to slow fractions last out, opened a clear lead in midstretch and held on for the win; capable of another top effort.
#1 Limited Liability	Closed well vs. slow fractions and was an easy winner of his only start; can bring the late heat again.
Race Summary	Coinage moves to open company but faces some contenders with just one start, compared to his three; experience matters and he can dig in when it counts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 09:04 AM

Paul Leiner

100* Jacksonville State +16.5
100* Twins -155
100* Over 8.5 Phillies/Nationals

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 10:32 AM

Paul Leiner

Saratoga Race 7

#2 Athena Dancer $10 wps
$2 exacta box 2-1-12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 10:36 AM

Hunter Price

Sep 01 '21, 11:05 AM in 28m
Tennis | Andrea Petkovic vs Garbine Muguruza
Play on: Andrea Petkovic +425 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Andrea Petkovic +425

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 10:36 AM

Bobby Conn

Sep 01 '21, 2:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Rockies vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +120 at BetVegas

1* Free Play on Rangers +120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 10:36 AM

Sean Murphy

Sep 01 '21, 2:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Rockies vs Rangers
Play on: Rockies -121 at pinnacle

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Colorado over Texas at 2:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockies will hand the ball to Kyle Freeland in Wednesday's series-finale in Texas. He has quietly been rolling along, allowing two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. The last time he pitched here in Texas he guided the Rockies to a 5-2 win back in July. Despite facing two of the league's best teams in the Giants and Dodgers over his last three outings, Freeland has held up well, recording a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Colorado has won each of his last five trips to the hill. We didn't think we'd get another chance to fade Rangers starter Kohei Arihara this season but we've been afforded the opportunity on Wednesday. Arihara has made three previous home starts this season, posting a ridiculous 11.32 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Behind Arihara is a Rangers bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 1.60 WHIP over its last seven games. Take Colorado.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 10:37 AM

Scott Rickenbach

Sep 01 '21, 3:40 PM in 5h
MLB | Padres vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks +204 at linepros

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Wednesday Free Pick Arizona Diamondbacks +205 vs San Diego Padres @ 3:40 ET - The huge home dog is worth a look in this one in my opinion. Arizona is 27-38 at home this season. That is not a great record. But this Padres team is only 30-33 on the road this season. That is not much different from the Diamondbacks home record. San Diego also has been struggling in recent weeks. Now they are a huge favorite even though Yu Darvish is 2-4 with a 4.75 ERA on the road this season plus enters this start 0-2 with 9 earned runs allowed in less than 9 innings over his last two starts! I know Luke Weaver is coming back off the DL but he is undefeated with a 1.27 ERA in his 4 home starts this season. This game has upset written all over it as the Padres are just way over-priced in my opinion and the Diamondbacks absolutely worth a look here to sprinkle a little on them as a dangerous home dog in this spot. Free Pick ARIZONA +205

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2021, 10:37 AM

Kenny Walker

Sep 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +130 at Caesars

Free Pick on Mariners

Wednesday 9/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 9/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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